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Trade Deadline Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are running out of time.  After starting the second half by losing two of three games to the Marlins, Kansas City is now 48-52, and 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card position.  While the club's recent transactions indicate that they're not ready to wave the white flag just yet, it may be more likely that the Royals ultimately end up hedging by both buying and selling prior to the July 31st deadline.

Record: 48-52 (8.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Hitting of any kind, outfield help, designated hitter, left-handed relief pitching

We know the Royals are still in buy mode because, well, they just bought someone.  The club brought Adam Frazier (a member of Kansas City's 2024 team) back into the fold in an All-Star break trade that sent minor league infielder Cam Devanney to the Pirates.  While Frazier only has an 85 wRC+ in 264 plate appearances this season, most of his struggles came in the first seven weeks.  He has hit .306/.363/.405 over his last 125 plate appearances.  Frazier hasn't been a consistent offensive force since the first half of the 2021 season, but as a left-handed hitter who can play second base and both corner outfield slots, he checks several boxes for a K.C. team needing help in all those categories.

If Frazier isn't the most eye-popping addition on paper, he should still boost an outfield mix that has nowhere to go but up.  Kansas City has far and away the least productive outfield in baseball, combining for -3.1 bWAR this season.  By comparison, the Rockies' outfielders are second-worst on the list with -1.8 bWAR.  The Royals have already tried an in-season overhaul by releasing Hunter Renfroe, optioning MJ Melendez to Triple-A, and calling up top prospect Jac Caglianone less than a year after he was selected sixth overall in the 2024 draft.  As much as the Royals have tried to shuffle the deck, nothing has worked.  Kyle Isbel's strong center field glove is basically the only positive from the group.

Before landing Frazier, the Royals reportedly had talks with the Pirates about a more high-profile outfielder in Bryan Reynolds.  That kind of big trade piece would help K.C. both now and in the future, as Reynolds is under contract through at least the 2030 season, though at the significant price of roughly $80MM remaining on his deal.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are one of several "bubble" teams around the league who likely don't know yet whether they'll buy, sell, or do some combination of both prior to the July 31 trade deadline. It's been a season of peaks and valleys for a Twins club that started 4-11 before rallying with a 13-game winning streak and then floundering through a 9-18 June not long after losing their ace for upwards of three months.

Minnesota is a fascinating team to watch, as the Twins would have some very interesting rentals if they opt to sell but also have a deep and talented farm system if they decide to push for contention. They're four games out of a Wild Card spot and open the second half with series against the Rockies, Dodgers and Nationals. All of the uncertainty with regard to the deadline comes against a backdrop of an ownership group that has cut payroll over the past 24 months as they explore a potential sale of the team.

Record: 47-49 (Playoff probability 23.6%, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries available here.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching, backup catcher, another bat, another reliever

Through early June, the Twins ranked among the game's best pitching staffs. Minnesota pitchers led the majors in walk rate, K-BB%, fWAR and SIERA while ranking top-five in strikeout rate, ERA and FIP. Top starter Pablo Lopez went down with a strained teres major muscle on June 3, and the pitching staff quickly began to unravel. Prospect Zebby Matthews hit the injured list just days after Lopez, though he's expected back shortly after the All-Star Break. Steady veteran Bailey Ober ran into catastrophic home run troubles while trying to pitch through a hip injury before finally landing on the injured list. Several short starts from the rotation snowballed and took a toll on the bullpen.

Joe Ryan is leading the Twins' staff in the absence of Lopez and Ober. Prospect David Festa has had a pair of awful starts (eight runs apiece) and seven decent ones otherwise. Fifth starter Chris Paddack has struggled. Simeon Woods Richardson was optioned after a poor stretch earlier this season but has provided a much-needed quality stretch over his past six starts: 30 2/3 innings, 1.47 ERA. He's down to a 3.95 ERA on the season (albeit with a 4.40 FIP and 4.65 SIERA).

The Twins could still use some more stability in the rotation. Paddack hasn't performed well and is a free agent at season's end. Festa and Matthews were top-100 prospects before debuting but have been inconsistent. Lopez and Ober are injured. Even Ryan, the current staff leader, missed the final two months of the 2024 season due to injury. Minnesota isn't likely to acquire anyone with a particularly lofty salary -- not amid a potential sale of the team and on the heels of an offseason punctuated by payroll limitations -- but there are still options to consider.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon everyone, hope you're well!
  • Sorry about dropping back to one subscriber chat these past two weeks. Prioritized getting those team-by-team deadline outlooks done before trade season really picks up

#1 Marlins Fan

  • Sounds like all of the Marlins trade news has gone completely silent the last couple of days. How many of players do you expect to be dealt?

Alcantara

  • When will the stove get warm? I am beginning to go crazy.

Anthony Franco

  • Probably still another week before it really gets going. Most of the activity will take place in the July 29-31 window
  • Barry Jackson with The Miami Herald had some details on the Marlins' thought process a couple days ago. Nothing especially surprising: listening on Cabrera, Sandy, Bender and Sánchez; would love to move Quantrill (obviously)
  • I think the first four guys will all go. They should get a ton of hits on Cabrera given the scarcity of potential top-end starters. Feels like a sell-high opportunity with his injury history, and he's their trade candidate who'd get the biggest return
  • I expect someone to add Fortes for a mid-level prospect. Might as well take what they can get for Faucher. Henriquez is probably their most interesting reliever but they might prefer to hold and let him build up a longer track record

Brewer Fan

  • Why do prospects sign for less than slot value? I get why teams want to obviously but what stops a prospect  from just saying pay me slot value?

Anthony Franco

  • Just a lack of leverage, especially for college guys. If you're a college senior, you basically can either take whatever the team offers you or not play affiliated baseball
  • High schoolers who go underslot usually do so because they're drafted higher than they'd go if it were just based on talent. The Braves went underslot with their first-round pick, but he was around 45th on Baseball America's pre-draft board. Slot value around that pick is in the $2M range
  • So if the Braves come to him and say "hey we'll take you at 22 but you have to sign for $2.6M against a slot value of $4M," he's better off taking that than waiting for the slot value of a pick between 40-60. That discussion happens before they make the pick, because if the player says no, then the Braves just draft someone else

Ross Atkins

  • Do you think Reid Detmers and Jo Adell might be available if the Angels are sellers?

Anthony Franco

  • I do not. I think the Angels will buy as long as they don't completely tank in the next two weeks, and even if they sell, it'd be rentals

Ken

  • What could the A's get for JP Sears?

Anthony Franco

  • Three and a half years of control. Durable but it's middling velocity and below-average swing and miss. You could kind of write off his huge home run rate this year as a product of the Sacramento bandbox, but that was an issue for him in Oakland as well
  • There'd be interest for sure but I think most contenders would view him as a low-end #4 or a fifth starter. Could see someone packaging a few mid-tier prospects but I'd be surprised if they got a huge headliner

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers have spent most of the season hovering around .500. They have as strong a 1-2 rotation punch as any team in MLB. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi give Texas a good chance to win every time out. They have little margin for error with a lineup that has struggled to score runs for a second straight year. Assuming the Rangers find themselves in position to buy, they need to swing for an impact bat. They still have much of the personnel from the 2023 team that mashed its way to a championship, but most of the hitters from that club have gone backwards over the past two seasons.

Record: 48-49 (18% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: First base, catcher, right field, power bullpen arm

The Rangers enter the second half tied for 22nd in MLB in scoring. They are eighth in runs scored over the past month, so things have been better lately, but they're still hitting .243/.322/.387 even over this recent stretch. They're in the bottom third in average, on-base percentage and slugging for the season. There have been far too many easy outs.

This is not a one-year problem. Texas had a .238/.305/.380 team batting line in 2024. They tried to remedy that -- with a particular focus on their woeful numbers against fastballs -- by signing Joc Pederson and acquiring Jake Burger. The offense hasn't gotten any better, at least in part because both Pederson and Burger have played poorly.

President of baseball operations Chris Young and his staff are back to the drawing board. The Rangers have had by far the worst designated hitter production (.160/.241/.265) in MLB. Most of that falls on Pederson, who has hit .131/.269/.238 in 46 games. He has been out nearly two months with a broken hand and is still weeks away from a rehab assignment. They've mostly used catcher Jonah Heim at DH in Pederson's absence. He's hitting .219/.262/.346 across 280 plate appearances. The Rangers need to find someone who can draw into that position.

Only 21 players have taken at least 150 plate appearances at the DH spot this season. Of that group, Marcell Ozuna is the most obvious trade candidate. He's playing on a $16MM salary that might be too rich for Texas, and he hasn't hit well over the past two months. The Nationals would happily dump what remains of Josh Bell's $6MM salary. The ever streaky Bell was terrible in April, raked in May, had an awful June, and is hitting well in a tiny sample in July. Texas could send the Nats a middling prospect and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

Bell would only make sense as one of multiple offensive acquisitions. The DH spot has been the biggest issue but is far from the only problem. Texas has also gotten below-average production out of catcher, first base, third base and right field. They're not going to be able to afford upgrades at five different positions, of course, but that at least gives them a wide positional net they can cast.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series continues with a look at the Tigers. Detroit entered the season as fringe contenders, but have emerged as the clear best team in the American League and possess MLB's best record overall coming out of the All-Star break. That's been thanks to some surprise breakout performances, as well as the club's top stars playing as expected. The Tigers are one of the most obvious buyers in the sport this trade season, though with a well-balanced roster there are few glaring holes they're desperate to upgrade.

Record: 59-38 (99.0% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield, center field, starting pitching, bullpen help

The Tigers have a well-constructed team without many needs they absolutely must upgrade. With that being said, there's at least some room for improvement virtually everywhere on the roster. A roster full of versatile position players who can be moved around as needed means that the Tigers can afford to be creative in upgrading their lineup this summer, and for a team with an above-average but not necessarily outstanding offense that figures to be a good place to start. Players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry are capable of playing virtually all over the diamond as needed, and while others like Colt Keith and Matt Vierling aren't quite as versatile, they can at least move around a handful of positions to give Detroit some further flexibility.

As presently constructed, the clearest hole in the Tigers' lineup appears to be center field. The combination of Parker Meadows and Vierling simply hasn't gotten it done this year. Both spent time on the injured list early in the season but now sport wRC+ marks of 55 and 50 respectively, although both of those figures come in fairly small sample sizes. That's especially true of Vierling, who has been healthy enough to get into just 13 games this season. Perhaps the Tigers could bet on the pair to find the form they flashed last year if given enough runway, but both hitters have options remaining and the club will surely be looking to maximize this opportunity given the dwindling team control of Tarik Skubal.

Cedric Mullins is a rental who could be available and would raise the floor for the Tigers in the outfield, with a 101 wRC+ this year and at least passable defense (though his bat has gone cold after a huge April). Mullins typically does his best work against right-handed pitching with a 115 wRC+ for his career and below-average numbers against fellow lefties, but this season he's actually posted reverse splits with a 140 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances against southpaws as compared to an 86 wRC+ against righties in a larger sample. Perhaps the Tigers would be willing to offer him everyday reps in the outfield, but even in some sort of timeshare with Baez, Meadows, and Vierling, Mullins would be an upgrade for a weak spot in the club's lineup.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Red Sox. There has been a lot of drama in Boston this year and it hasn't always been smooth sailing. However, a ten-game win streak just before the break has catapulted them into buyer position. The question now is how aggressive they will be in adding to the club ahead of the deadline. With a glut of outfielders, would they be willing to use that surplus to bolster another area of the roster?

Record: 53-45 (55.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: pitching, first base, backup catcher

The Sox have one elite pillar in their rotation, but it's questionable after that. Even that pillar comes with some degree of uncertainty. Garrett Crochet leads the club in starts and innings pitched, by a healthy margin in both cases. He has a 2.23 earned run average over 129 1/3 innings pitched.

Can he keep it up the rest of the way? In the early parts of his career, he was either hurt or working as a reliever. A move to the rotation last year worked out brilliantly, though the White Sox backed off his workload in the second half. He had 101 1/3 innings pitched through the end of June but then just 44 2/3 innings the rest of the way, finishing at 146 frames. Whether he can get that into the 200 range and still be effective in the postseason is something of an open question.

Even with Boston counting on Crochet to fill one playoff rotation spot, they would need more. Are Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello viable candidates? Giolito has been trending in a positive direction lately. He missed all of 2024 due to elbow surgery and then a hamstring strain put him on the shelf for the first month of 2025. Through his first seven starts, he had a 6.42 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. In his most recent six outings: 0.70 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

The Sox will have to decide if that's small sample noise or Giolito getting on track after years of struggles. From 2019 to 2021, he posted a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate. But over 2022 and 2023, he had a 4.89 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. It would be great if he's back to his old self, but six starts is still a pretty small sample size.

It's a somewhat similar situation for Bello, who missed the first few weeks of the season due to a shoulder strain. Through eight starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 16.1% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate. But in his seven most recent appearances, he has a 2.61 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate.

The options beyond those three are not inspiring. Walker Buehler has a 6.12 ERA on the year. Tanner Houck had an 8.04 ERA before a flexor pronator strain sent him to the injured list. Richard Fitts has some passable numbers but just 12 big league starts under his belt. Hunter Dobbins and Kutter Crawford are done for the year. Kyle Harrison isn't doing especially well in the minors. Patrick Sandoval could be a factor later in the season, but he's still a question mark for now. He had UCL surgery just over a year ago and has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

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MLB Mailbag: Tigers, Gore, Athletics, Astros

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This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Colin asks:

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash.  Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers.  Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?

I ran this question by a front office friend.  He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000.  There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."

Barry asks:

I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.

Michael asks:

Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?

The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats.  There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.

The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate.  We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%.  He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.

The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027.  He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller.  Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class.  A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt.  Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are hanging on the outskirts of the playoff race. They enter the All-Star Break three games below .500 and 5.5 back in a strong National League playoff field. They'd surely prefer to buy in a season where they're running a franchise-record payroll and facing a number of potential free agent departures. With playoff odds hovering around 10% and an injury-depleted pitching staff, they'll need to come out of the Break strong to give the front office justification to add.

Record: 47-50 (10.2% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds

Sell Mode

While the Diamondbacks could still go either way, they'd have a chance to really shape the deadline if they sell. They have the best collection of rental talent of any fringe contender.

Impending Free Agents: Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly, Randal Grichuk, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller, Kendall Graveman, James McCann, Jordan Montgomery (out for the season)

Arizona's top four rentals would all be significant trade chips. Eugenio Suárez has emerged as arguably the best impending free agent hitter who could change hands. He's already up to 31 home runs with a .250/.320/.569 batting line. It's a continuation of last year's monster second half. Suárez has 52 home runs over the past calendar year -- tying him with Cal Raleigh for third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He's a .277/.331/.586 hitter in his past 673 plate appearances.

Suárez is playing on a $15MM salary. That could be a bit of an obstacle for teams navigating luxury tax concerns but represents a significant bargain relative to his current production. The D-Backs could (and probably would) make him a qualifying offer if they hang onto him all year, but they'd be able to pull a stronger return in a trade. It seems unlikely that they'd re-sign him to a lucrative multi-year deal and block Jordan Lawlar's path to playing time. The Yankees, Cubs and Mariners should all have Suárez near the top of their wish lists. The Mets, Tigers or Reds could also make a push, and he'd make some sense for the Brewers if they can make the money work. Suarez was plunked on the hand in last night's All-Star Game but remained in to run and play defense. Postgame x-rays were negative.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Brewers. Milwaukee is firmly in a playoff spot and should be looking to buy. However, their financial restraints and apparent surplus of starting pitching could allow them to do some selling or some classic "baseball trades."

Record: 56-40 (82.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield

As of a few months ago, starting pitching would have topped the list of potential needs, but that's no longer the case. The Brewers had a number of injuries early in the year, which spurred them to make a late-spring signing of Jose Quintana and an early-season trade for Quinn Priester. Since then, some of the injured pitchers have returned healthy while several young arms have stepped up to post encouraging results. Now the Brewers seemingly have a rotation surplus they could theoretically deal from. More on that later.

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