MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
This week's mailbag gets into potential starting pitcher trade targets for the Cubs, possible left-handed bats for the Astros, which Rangers have trade value, infield options for the Yankees, and the Mets' reported connection to Luis Robert Jr.
Colin asks:
As great as Colin Rea and Matt Boyd have been this season, the Cubs need more starting pitching, especially with Steele out for the year and Imanaga out for a couple more turns through the rotation. Sandy Alcantara seems like an obvious shout, but he has struggled so far this year. Who else could the Cubs feasibly target?
Marc asks:
Do you think the Cubs can survive til the trade deadline considering the perilous situation their in with starters?
I do think the Cubs can survive until the trade deadline with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ben Brown, and Jameson Taillon, with Imanaga probably rejoining sometime in June. I also don't think they have much of a choice, as sellers rarely make early deals.
But yes, the Cubs need to add a starter this summer. Boyd has not topped 88 innings in a season since 2019, a threshold he's projected to reach on June 25th. I made the case in March that Boyd's recent injury history doesn't necessarily mean he can't get to 150+ innings, but he is 34 and the Cubs' depth can't be pushed much further. Ben Brown has never exceeded 104 innings, and he's on pace to get there by the end of July. Cade Horton's career high is 88 1/3 innings in 2023. In his next outing he'll pass last year's total of 34 1/3 frames.
The following teams have less than a 1% chance at the playoffs, so most of them could probably be persuaded to trade a starting pitcher now: the White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies. The Angels belong here as well, but since they're 4.5 games out of a wild card, perhaps they'll need more time to wave the white flag. Here's a look at starting pitchers who might be available from these clubs:
Last winter's offseason trade market featured mostly "baseball trades," swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between contenders. The handful of rebuilders had torn the roster so far down that they didn't have much to offer in the more common type of deal -- a quality player being dealt from a bad team to a good one in exchange for prospects.
The Jesús Luzardo trade was probably the biggest exception. The Marlins dealt him to the Phillies in the middle of December for a pair of low minors prospects, shortstop Starlyn Caba and center fielder Emaarion Boyd. A talented player down to his final two seasons of arbitration control on a team that lost 100 games is generally an obvious trade chip. Luzardo's candidacy was made more complicated by his injury history, most notably a back problem that ended his '24 season in June.
Miami's front office faced a risk-reward calculus. Should they hold Luzardo until the deadline? A strong first half could make him the best controllable starting pitcher available. Another injury would sap most of his remaining value. An offseason trade was the safer play, but it also came with lower upside as a bit of a sell-low move. For slightly different reasons, they may be faced with a similar decision two months from now on Sandy Alcantara.
It's too soon to render definitive judgments on the Luzardo trade. The southpaw's first eight starts with the Phillies couldn't have gone much better, though. He took a 2.11 ERA into this afternoon's start against the Cardinals, in which he fired another seven innings of one-run ball. Luzardo has struck out 26.6% of opposing hitters. His stuff looks as sharp as it did before last year's elbow and back issues. He's performing at a top-of-the-rotation level.
MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
The 2022 Nationals found themselves at a crossroads. Washington had sold at the prior year's trade deadline, shipping Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, sending Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres and trading Jon Lester to the Cardinals. The organization's steadfast hope had been that even while rebuilding, Juan Soto would be at the heart of those efforts to build back up. Longtime general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged as much in June, plainly stating on the record that he had no intention of trading Soto.
The Nats offered Soto an extension reportedly worth $440MM in guaranteed money. It would've been the largest deal in MLB history at the time. Only after Soto turned that offer down -- drawing plenty of criticism for doing so -- did Washington begin to seriously explore the possibility of trading him. Moving the game's best young hitter when he had two and a half seasons of club control remaining was no small undertaking. It'd require a seismic haul of young talent -- the type of prospect package that several interested parties simply didn't have the inventory to assemble. Most other clubs simply couldn't stomach the asking price.
A limited market of suitors for Soto emerged. To no one's surprise, the hyper-aggressive Padres entered the bidding and made a strong push. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller throws his hat in the ring when nearly any star-caliber player is available. From the moment Soto hit the market, the Padres -- then armed with one of baseball's best farm systems -- were among the most logical landing spots.
San Diego indeed wound up reeling in their big fish, and it took the type of trade haul we might not see again for years to come. Soto and Josh Bell went from the Nats to the Padres in exchange for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder James Wood, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana. The Padres also sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Nats as something of a financial counterweight, and in a separate deal they shipped Eric Hosmer -- who'd invoked his no-trade rights to block his inclusion in the Soto trade -- to the Red Sox.
It was a jaw-dropping haul. Abrams, Gore and Hassell had all been top-10 draft picks within the past five seasons. Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport at the time. Gore had struggled through some mechanical issues in the upper minors but was only a few years removed from being one of the consensus top pitching prospects in the game. Wood was a 19-year-old who was just a year removed from being a second-round pick, and his stock was firmly on the rise at the time of the swap as he ripped through A-ball. Hassell entered the 2022 season as a top-40 prospect in the game. Susana was only 18 at the time of the trade and was in his first season of pro ball after signing out of his native Dominican Republic; Baseball America likened his upside to that of a high schooler who might go in the first round of the MLB draft.
While not every blockbuster trade pans out -- Washington hasn't gotten a ton of value from that Scherzer/Turner stunner, for instance -- the Soto trade has produced a bumper crop that seems likely to form the nucleus of the next contending Nationals club.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
This week's mailbag gets into the first base situation in Boston, Sandy Alcantara's rough start, options for the Cubs at third, lefty reliever possibilities for the Mets, and much more.
Clarke asks:
Surely the Gonzalez/Toro tandem is not the answer at first base for the Red Sox and Cora says Devers isn't moving out of DH. They are thin in the minors at 1B. Your poll yesterday showed pretty even opinions (inside and outside organization) for solutions. What say you? External options?
Cornelius asks:
Isn’t the only reasonable path for Anthony is moving Devers off DH (1st base) and using the DH for the 4th outfielders (Anthony, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela)?
Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic noted, "Before Tuesday’s game, [Red Sox manager Alex] Cora said that he’s had no discussions with Rafael Devers about moving to first base. Devers has been asked by the media to discuss the matter, but so far he has declined to talk."
At the risk of sounding like a talk radio guy, this is the big leagues, and Devers should step up and volunteer to learn first base immediately. The Red Sox have a 45% chance at the playoffs right now, and making suboptimal choices or waiting too long could cause them to fall short. For the second time this year, the Red Sox seem to be scared of offending Devers by mandating he do what's best for the team. As of this writing, the Red Sox haven't even had the first base discussion with Devers!
Clearly, Devers does not take position changes lightly. From Boston's perspective, I get treading carefully with a star player who is signed through 2033. But Devers learning first base is better than putting it on a 20-year-old prospect like Roman Anthony. Anthony has little left to learn in Triple-A and can easily join an outfield/DH rotation in Boston. Opening up DH also works as a way of getting Masataka Yoshida's bat into the lineup sooner.
You've seen the speculation on external options. Chris Cotillo of MassLive had a reasonable list, naming guys like Anthony Rizzo and Jon Singleton. The Red Sox can also look at trading for older players who are mashing at Triple-A and haven't really gotten a shot in the Majors yet, like Otto Kemp, Tim Elko, or Matt Lloyd. Who else might make sense?
The last time that Hunter Brown was tagged on MLBTR's pages was almost one year ago. Brown had just thrown a five-inning relief appearance after Cristian Javier failed to advance past the second inning. Houston had been running a six-man rotation and was potentially considering dropping Brown to the bullpen or to Triple-A, as he'd allowed 26 runs over 23 innings through the end of April.
A lot can change in a year.
Brown struck out seven while allowing just one run in that May 11 relief outing. His return to the rotation six days later didn't go well, as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee. After that, Brown reeled off eight consecutive quality starts. He allowed more than three runs in just three of his final 22 appearances. He'd made it through six innings in just one of his first eight starts. He failed to complete six innings only three times from the middle of May onwards.
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
From 2018-21, only four teams in Major League Baseball won more games than the A's. They'd navigated a lean stretch from 2015-17 that saw them rattle off three consecutive last-place finishes in the AL West and come out on the other side with a swiftly acquired/developed core. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy were top-100 draft picks. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas were key pieces in the returns received for Ben Zobrist, Jeff Samardzija and Josh Reddick/Rich Hill, respectively. Mark Canha was added via the Rule 5 Draft (technically in a trade with the Rockies). Ramon Laureano was acquired from the division-rival Astros for a song.
The staying power of that core, as is ever the case with the low-budget A's, was finite. In early September 2021 -- much to the chagrin of some A's fans; my apologies -- MLBTR looked ahead to the massive slate of arbitration salaries facing the then-Oakland club and wondered whether another broad-reaching teardown was nigh, given the escalating cost of that core.
That rebuild indeed came to pass. Over the next calendar year, each of Olson, Chapman, Manaea, Bassitt, Montas and Lou Trivino were traded for prospects. The following offseason, Murphy, A.J. Puk and Cole Irvin followed. Canha, just like Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks a year prior, departed for no compensation. Sam Moll went at the 2023 trade deadline.
The plus side seemed to be a bevy of new prospects who could potentially accelerate the rebuild process and help get a contending group back on the field sooner than later. If you'd told A's fans on Opening Day 2022, after that miserable offseason rebuild, that the 2025 club would be an on-the-rise team with an exciting core of hitters, they'd likely have begrudgingly accepted that another rebuild paid dividends.
Except ... that's not really the case. It's true that the A's are winning in 2025 and look more exciting than they have in four years -- but they've reached this point not because of that rebuild but rather in spite of it. Let's take a look back at the rebuild, the missteps along the way, and the manner in which this nucleus came together despite a series of whiffs on the trade market.
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