Is Anyone Even Trying To Win The AL Central?
Yet another offseason of hyperaggressive spending and mind-boggling CBT payrolls from the Dodgers and Mets (and, this winter, the Blue Jays) has led to increased talk of competitive balance ahead of the impending conclusion of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Owners are again expected to push for a salary cap -- though that's a perpetual goal and would absolutely have been the case regardless of how the usual suspects spent in free agency this winter -- and they'll have plenty of fan support in that regard.
Fans, particularly those of small market teams, feel a clear sense of defeatism, knowing their clubs will rarely (or in some cases never) be players for the top names in free agency. The Dodgers were close enough to losing in the World Series that it's not fair to say they can freely buy themselves a championship -- the Mets spent more in 2025 and missed the postseason entirely -- but it's fair to say they're spending enough to give themselves something like a 95% chance of making the postseason and entering as the favorite.
The other side of the cap argument, of course, is that it would assuredly usher in the implementation of a salary floor -- a level at which teams must spend on payroll or else be subject to some degree of penalization. There's already a weak "floor" in place for revenue-sharing clubs, but it seems to lack any semblance of teeth. The A's felt compelled to spend enough to push their CBT payroll up to $105MM last year -- roughly 1.5 times the amount they receive annually from revenue-sharing -- but that was seemingly because they're the only club to have been actually stripped of revenue-sharing status in the past. The Marlins were supposedly in the same boat this winter, and they've thumbed their nose at the idea of spending, as evidenced by a CBT payroll in the $80MM range.
I can see the arguments for a cap/floor system. I'm skeptical that it would actually force the game's lowest-payroll clubs to spend in meaningful ways, but that's another topic -- and one that we'll surely debate ad nauseum in the year to come as CBA talks intensify.
But whether it's a salary floor, firm penalties for not spending revenue-sharing funds in tangible ways, or greater access to draft/international resources for non-playoff clubs who remain competitive, something has to give. Right now, there's at least one entire division content to sit on its hands as the five respective front offices seemingly embody that same level of defeatism felt by their small- and mid-market fan bases.
If the Dodgers are a budding dynasty, it's unequivocally fair to say that's in part because of their limitless spending capacity. But it's also because there are teams seemingly content to throw their hands up and ask, "why even bother?" At a certain point, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy -- and I'd argue that at least with regard to the AL Central, we've reached that point. Let's look at each AL Central club's offseason to date.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
- Decent amount to work with today, let's get rolling
Drake
- Initial thoughts on the breaking news of Wilson/A’s 7 yr/$70 mil extension?
Anthony Franco
- Love it for the A's. Wilson should've been well clear of the Lawrence Butler/Ezequiel Tovar tier in my view, thought he should've been a nine-figure guy already
- Easier for me to say he should've turned down $70 million than it is for him to do it, and I don't begrudge anyone for locking in life-changing money and staying with a young core that's really promising, but I think he's leaving a lot on the table here
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
- I'm not real impressed with the Mets position player group or their bullpen. What am I missing?
Anthony Franco
- I share your skepticism on the bullpen even as a fan of the Williams deal. It's a weird position player group because so many guys are bouncing around but you've got the elite talent with Soto, Bichette and Lindor and another five players (Alvarez, Robert, Polanco, Semien, Baty) who could be above-average regulars
- Obviously Polanco/Robert have durability questions and Semien's probably a max 3-WAR guy at this point, but they've also got Benge lurking and Vientos hanging around. It should be a top 5-10 offense in MLB
Joshua
- I would love to see CJ Abrams with the Pirates. Do you think the Nats would do a Seth Hernandez, Hunter Barco, Termarr Johnson deal? Is that close?
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MLB Mailbag: Giants, Framber Valdez, Eugenio Suarez
This week's mailbag gets into the Giants' rotation, why Framber Valdez remains unsigned, a thorough look at where Eugenio Suarez could land, the Tigers and Nationals, and more collective bargaining thoughts.
Paul asks:
Who makes sense for the Giants to add to their rotation?
Daryn asks:
Why is Framber Valdez not signed yet? He is the best starting pitcher in the market. Is it his age and asking for a lot of years, or it is the clubhouse thing we hear about?
At present, the Giants' rotation looks like this:
Like every team, they'll need reinforcements for injuries. Ray is 34 and 2025 was his first full season in three years. Houser is 33 and tossed a career-high 164 1/3 innings last year (Triple-A included). Roupp missed 24 days with elbow inflammation and then saw his season end in August with a deep bone bruise to his knee. Mahle missed over three months with shoulder soreness.
On the Mahle conference call, Giants GM Zack Minasian said, "I don’t know if we’re ever done. I think we’re very comfortable with the five that we have and then the bundle of arms behind them. Our depth is in a much better spot than it was at the beginning of the offseason, so we’re happy with where we’re at. We’ll keep working at it, but we do think this is a solid five-man rotation going into the spring." That quote comes via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
That bundle behind the starting five may include Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng, Carson Seymour, Blade Tidwell, and Carson Whisenhunt, all of whom made big league starts last year. Trevor McDonald and Keaton Winn are options as well.
The Giants are paying $21MM in AAV for Houser and Mahle this year, but neither can be counted on for a 2-WAR season. I don't know that Zac Gallen would be enough of an improvement over the Giants' existing back-end options, but slotting Framber Valdez in behind Webb would be huge. The Giants have a good team at present, but Valdez could add a crucial three wins over whoever he replaces.
Back in November, Giants owner Greg Johnson expressed reluctance to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal. Just before that, MLBTR predicted a five-year deal for the 32-year-old Valdez. Ranger Suarez signed a five-year deal two weeks ago, so it is possible to get that type of contract in January. That said, we haven't seen a free agent starter get five years on January 28th or later since Yu Darvish in 2018. As we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the chance of Valdez getting a true five-year deal like Suarez decrease.
There are several factors that likely contribute to Valdez being unsigned on January 28th:
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Where Can The Guardians Spend The Money Saved On The Ramírez Deal?
The Guardians hammered out their third extension with José Ramírez over the weekend. While the team still hasn't announced the contract as of Wednesday evening, it reportedly runs through his age-39 season. It more or less confirms that Ramírez will be a one-team superstar, but the biggest impact in the short term is that it involved a restructure to give the team some spending room.
Ramírez will reportedly be paid $25MM annually over the next seven seasons. $10MM of each season's salary is deferred until 2036. He'd been slated for a non-deferred $21MM salary this season. They saved $6MM against the 2026 payroll and $8MM and $10MM, respectively, over the following two years.
Any mention of the Guardians spending money is going to be met with sarcasm and skepticism. That's warranted given their usual spending habits, but this year's payroll would be extreme even by their standards. There'll almost certainly be a notable acquisition or two before Opening Day.
Cleveland has 12 players, including their arbitration class, signed for the upcoming season. Their salaries break down as follows:
- Ramírez: $25MM ($10MM deferred)
- Steven Kwan: $7.725MM
- Emmanuel Clase: $6MM
- Shawn Armstrong: $5.5MM (including option buyout)
- Trevor Stephan: $4.75MM (including option buyout)
- Tanner Bibee: $4MM
- Austin Hedges: $4MM
- Nolan Jones: $2MM
- Colin Holderman: $1.5MM
- David Fry: $1.375MM
- Matt Festa: $1MM
- Connor Brogdon: $900K
They'll also pay the Blue Jays $2.75MM as a condition of the Myles Straw trade. It's a total of $66.5MM in commitments, and even that dramatically overstates how much they'll actually spend. Ramírez is being paid $15MM this year, dropping their short-term obligations to $56.5MM.
There's also a strong chance they don't wind up paying anything to Clase. His criminal trial for alleged game-fixing won't begin until May, but it's possible MLB imposes its own discipline before the start of the season. It'd be a shock if the star reliever played another MLB game and Cleveland brass will obviously hope for the league to level a suspension that gets them off the hook for next year's salary.
If that happens, they'll be down to $50.5MM in guaranteed commitments. Filling out the roster with players on near league minimum salaries would push them into the $63-65MM range. According to The Associated Press, the Marlins were the only team with a season-opening payroll below $74.9MM last year. Cleveland ranked 25th in MLB with a $102.5MM mark.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope the weekend treated everyone well. I will get going in a couple hours, at 3pm CT, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time if you are so inclined!
- Let's get going!
Mr Redlegs
- What's the restriction on when you can trade a newly signed player? e.g. if the White Sox wanted, could they assume Seranthony Dominguez salary and trade him for a prospect now verses waiting until the deadline?
Steve Adams
- Any player signing as a free agent cannot be traded until the following June 15 unless he consents to it.
Amazins
- Do you see Peralta sigining extension with Mets? How much would get it done?
Steve Adams
- I assume they'll try to extend him, yes. David Stearns has shown pretty definitively that he prefers to eschew long-term commitments, particularly to pitchers. He knows Peralta well from Milwaukee and knows Peralta has signed one deal prioritizing comfort and security over maxing out on the open market.I imagine they'll aim for something like four years total (beginning in 2027, since he's already signed for 2026) and at a massive AAV. Something like $140-160MM total from 2027-30. He'd be 34 at the end of that contract.
Drake
- So who plays RF for the Giants? Lee or Bader?
Steve Adams
- Jung Hoo Lee was statistically one of the worst CFs in baseball last year, but his arm strength rated well. Bader is elite in CF. He'll play there. Lee will slide to the corner.
Al
- What do you see is the most likely scenario for Matt Shaw.
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The Astros Have Work To Do In The Outfield
For much of the offseason, the focus surrounding the Astros was how they'd improve their rotation and general starting pitching depth. It was an understandable qualm. Framber Valdez became a free agent, and while he's still lingering on the market, a reunion with Houston never felt all that likely, given the contract he'll likely command and the team's aversion to long-term deals of that magnitude. Hayden Wesneski had Tommy John surgery late last May. Ronel Blanco followed a couple weeks later. Lefty Brandon Walter was an out-of-the-blue success story ... at least until he also underwent Tommy John surgery -- his in mid-September.
The 'Stros have done well to bolster the starting staff. Their surprise deal with NPB star Tatsuya Imai gives them a potential high-end arm to replace Valdez. A trade acquisition of Pittsburgh righty Mike Burrows plugged a young, controllable arm into the fourth spot on the staff. Cheap rolls of the dice on former top prospect Nate Pearson and former D-backs/Royals farmhand Ryan Weiss, who's coming back over after a terrific two years in the Korea Baseball Organization, added some depth.
A six-man group consisting of Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Lance McCullers Jr. could be solid -- particularly if McCullers can be even serviceable. Depth arms abound. Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, Jason Alexander and Miguel Ullola are all on the 40-man roster and all have minor league options remaining. Twenty-three-year-old Ethan Pecko had a nice season between Double-A and Triple-A last season and could get a look in 2026.
There are still clearly some question marks, but the Astros added an intriguing young arm (Burrows), a high-upside international star (Imai) and an under-the-radar 29-year-old coming off a big KBO showing (Weiss). Things look much better than they did a few months back.
The same can't be said in the outfield. To this point in the offseason, the biggest move the Astros have made, outfield-wise, is non-tendering Chas McCormick. Unless the Astros plan to use Yordan Alvarez in left field on the regular -- which is very unlikely to be the case -- it's easy to argue that they don't have even one everyday outfielder who can be confidently projected as a league-average hitter.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Greetings! Sorry for the abnormal Thursday FO chat and the suddenness of it. Just being a bit proactive since I may have some conflicts arise tomorrow and I want to be sure I get this week's second FO chat in!This will be in lieu of the standard Friday afternoon chat -- sorry if that causes anyone to miss it, but hey, maybe we get some folks who can't make our usual Mon/Fri ones in here.
I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions in advance, as always. We should be back on our usual Mon/Fri schedule next week.
- Hello!
- Let's get going
Michael
- Why don’t the Yankees or other teams chose not to offer deferred money in contracts? Sure works for the Dodgers.
Steve Adams
- In short ... they do! I would say the majority of teams throughout the league have leveraged deferrals. Even the Ohtani deal, the most extreme example, was a framework that was amenable to both the Blue Jays and Giants. (Not the Angels, notably)This is largely off the cuff, but here's a quick rundown of some teams' notable deferred contracts over the years...
Blue Jays (Cease, Santander), D-backs (Burnes, Ketel Marte) Royals (Sal Perez), Mets (Lindor, Devin Williams, Manaea), Reds (Homer Bailey, Nick Castellanos), Nationals (basically like every FA they've ever signed), Orioles (Chris Davis), Brewers (Yelich), Rockies/Cardinals (Arenado), Red Sox (Sale, Devers)
- I'm 100% spacing on plenty of names, but deferrals are extremely common, even if the Yankees haven't gone down that road really.
walterj23
- Cubs are rumored to be in on Gallen . How does he fit in the rotation and is it a smart investment?
Steve Adams
- Not convinced Gallen is enough of an upgrade over their in-house options to justify the price tag. If the Cubs really want another rotation splash, they should just sign Framber Valdez, who fits them better anyhow with that huge ground-ball rate in front of that Chicago infield defense.
Brewers
- We win 97 games, the most in MLB and we trade our ace. How can people say it is the Dodgers are what is wrong with baseball with a straight face.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you had a good weekend! Chat swap this week since Steve wanted off for the holiday, he'll run Friday's instead
Clad in plaid
- Is it possible that Cleveland's lack of free agent activity is because they are concerned about a lockout next spring? And if that is the case, would they keep guys like Bazzana off the 40 man roster this year so they can get another year of development in the minors during a lockout? It seems risky to waste another year of Jose Ramirez. Can they compete for a playoff birth with the current roster?
Anthony Franco
- This is the usual offseason for Cleveland. They're not going to run payrolls that allow them to do much in free agency
- Bazzana should be up pretty early in the year, though I imagine they'd like to get him a little more Triple-A work first (ideally with an early look at Brito there). They're a viable playoff team again for me but that's more about everyone in the AL Central remaining content to be the worst division in baseball for like the 15th straight season
Tough Times In Anaheim
- Jo Adell (2 years of control) and Reid Detmers (3 years of control) for Noah Cameron (5 years of control). Who says no?
Anthony Franco
- This is the rare chat proposal that I think is skewed in favor of the team that you're not a fan of
- I get the logic on both sides but I'd want more than just Cameron in this framework if I were the Angels. He's cheaper but not convinced he's a dramatically better starter than Detmers in 2026
Youkyluptus
- Is the Red Sox rotation top 5 in the sport? Who’s i n that t ier?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I'd have them top five, probably top three. Dodgers probably most talented but obviously plenty of injury questions with them. Cincinnati's in there, Pittsburgh's has a crazy high ceiling but it requires a lot of projection on Ashcraft/Chandler to have them in that tier already
- Obviously Seattle would be a pretty popular pick for this and they are very good 1-5, depth behind that just isn't great. Toronto's really well positioned if you assume Bieber's healthy
Dan S.
- Thinking 2/40 or 3/60 with an opt-out for Gallen?
Anthony Franco
- I'd lean two in the mid-40s probably but neither of these outcomes would surprise me
- Assuming you're also putting an opt-out in the 2/40 deal. Can't see him taking a straight two-year contract
What a Mets
- Does it make sense for the Mets to offer Bellinger a Bichette-type deal- substantial overpay, but short commitment? If so, chances he accepts say 3/126 vs 5/160 from Yankees?
-
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
- Interesting week, let's get rolling
LFGM
- Head spinning! Lost Tucker, got Bichette all in the course of a day. I don’t think the Mets should trade Baty, if Bichette opts out after year 1 you have no 3B, so two questions, how do the Mets work out 1B, LF & DH if they keep Baty. Do you think Vientos, or Mauricio have the value combined with lesser prospects to get the SP the Mets need/want? Maybe Freddy Peralta?
Sam
- Brett Baty on the move?
Lance
- Mets have a roster full of middle infielders and at least 1 poor fielding outfielder, how do you see that shaking out?
Anthony Franco
- A handful of the many Mets questions in here
- I don't think Vientos (or certainly not Mauricio) has the juice to headline a Peralta deal, but it does feel to me that he's getting traded. Seems likelier than Baty, who offers more positional value as a capable defender at second/third (and presumably first)
- Seems like the Mets balked at a Vientos/Robert framework at the deadline but I wonder if that's more workable now if Sox eat a chunk of the money or include a reliever other than Grant Taylor in there
Dave
- How much of this "rush" from a few well-funded teams to spend large sums for short-term contracts is because of the expectation that the impending lockout will force a salary cap into place?
Philly A's
- Are the shorter term but higher AVV contracts because of the possible strike?
Anthony Franco
- I don't think that has much to do with it. Just seems like we had a couple huge spenders that didn't want to go long-term on very good but flawed hitters at the top of the class
- Obviously if you're not keen on committing seven or eight years to either of these guys, you need to compensate by juicing the AAV. Mets had a ton of short-term spending room compared to last season and were running out of players on which they could use it after missing on Tucker
Stott Through The Heart And You're To Blame
- Three years for Realmuto means that Dombrowski is planning on retiring after 2 and letting someone else clean up the mess?
Anthony Franco
- Haha if that were the case, why balk at going to three years in November?
- I'm a little surprised they caved but credit to JTR and his camp for waiting it out. Seemed like Bichette was the last other player for which they were prepared to spend and once he chose elsewhere, they said "screw it, let's get Realmuto done"
Justin
- how do the Tucker and Bichette deals impact Cody Bellinger?
Anthony Franco
- Mets could still accommodate Belli, I guess, but that feels less likely now. Beyond that, not sure it matters much. Dodgers never felt likely there and Yankees never seemed to be in on Tucker. My guess is they get the Yankees to cave on the sixth year and wrap it up
Shatkins
- Did aaron judge just become the most underpaid player in the game (besides arb controlled assets)
Anthony Franco
- It's Ohtani for me but Judge is second. That deal felt like a win for the Yanks at the time and obviously looks dramatically better with where salaries at the top of the market have gone since
Soooo
- What’s next for Boston? I feel like they still need a bat, but I hate to see them lose Early or Tolle. Does some combination of Harrison and Crawford (plus others) get them Paredes?
-
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Where Can The Pirates Turn For Another Bat?
The Pirates clearly entered the 2025-26 offseason with ambitious goals. They've spoken in the past about wanting to lure more free agents and make impact additions in the lineup, but both comments from Pittsburgh brass and the reporting surrounding their early offseason endeavors struck a different tenor. The Pirates' reported willingness to offer Josh Naylor in the vicinity of $80MM was a genuine surprise, given the lack of spending to which we've become accustomed from owner Bob Nutting. The reported $120-125MM offer to Kyle Schwarber -- which would've been the largest deal in franchise history -- was even more of an eye-opener.
Ultimately, finishing second-, third- or fourth-place on a pair of notable free agents has the same end result as sitting out the bidding entirely, but it was nevertheless notable that the Bucs came out swinging. It appeared to set the stage for a more aggressive offseason than usual, and to an extent, we've seen that. Ryan O'Hearn's two-year, $29MM contract isn't a major price to pay for most clubs, but it was the first multiyear free-agent deal given out by Pittsburgh since 2016. Acquiring Brandon Lowe, similarly, wasn't necessarily a blockbuster move in and of itself, but it's a higher-profile trade target than we typically see from the Bucs. Their trade of Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox netted them a fairly touted young outfielder, Jhostynxon Garcia, who could be in the majors early in 2026.
The additions of Lowe and O'Hearn add a pair of clearly above-average bats to Pittsburgh's lineup. They'll join Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz atop the lineup. Horwitz was last year's primary offensive acquisition, and while his contributions were muted by a spring wrist procedure and a slow start upon activation in June, by the end of the season he looked the part of a quietly excellent pickup. Horwitz hit .272/.353/.434 overall, but that includes a dismal start to his season. Over his final 298 trips to the plate, he slashed .290/.372/.481 with nearly as many walks (11.4%) as strikeouts (15.1%). From late July through season's end (219 PAs), he slashed .314/.402/.539 with a 12.3% walk rate and 13.7% strikeout rate.
The quintet of Horwitz, O'Hearn, Lowe, Reynolds and Cruz has the makings of a solid top half of the lineup -- particularly if Reynolds can set aside last year's awful first half. Through the All-Star break, the Pirates' star outfielder was hitting just .225/.287/.369 (80 wRC+). Following the Midsummer Classic, he turned in a .276/.364/.453 line (128 wRC+) that's more akin to expectations for the 30-year-old former All-Star (who'll turn 31 later this month).
Add in the looming debut of Konnor Griffin, the top-ranked prospect in all of baseball, and you can start to see why Pirates fans are showing some cautious optimism. Griffin may only be 19 years old, but he skyrocketed from Low-A to High-A to Double-A in his debut season last year, posting an outrageous .333/.415/.527 line with 21 home runs and 65 steals despite being one of the youngest -- if not the youngest -- player at each of those minor league stops. The No. 9 overall pick from 2024 could make his MLB debut this coming season, and there's been speculation about him having a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster. There's a lot to dream on for Bucs fans, but the Pirates still feel like they're one bat short.
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