- Recent reunions with Martin Maldonado and Joe Smith has inched the Houston Astros’ projected payroll very close to the $228MM luxury tax threshold. They would avoid a repeater tax, though a 12% surtax comes with the $20MM overage (the base tax line is set at $208MM for 2020). Jason Martinez at Roster Resource pegs Houston’s luxury tax estimate at just over $137MM, well past that second line and fast approaching the third tax line of $248MM. Given that Houston previously indicated a desire to stay under even the $228MM line, they are probably done shopping for the winter, at the very least as far as position players are concerned, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan.
Astros Rumors
Wade Miley Tipping Pitches In Houston
Wade Miley stood helplessly by as his Astros’ tenure crumbled behind a disastrous September. A rocky final month boiled over into his lone ALDS appearance, forcing Miley off the roster for the ALCS and World Series. The team supposed Miley was relying too much on his cutter and steering his changeup to the point of altering the arm action that makes the pitch effective. After the year was out, however, a former teammate reached out to alert Miley that glove position was tipping his pitches, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That’s cold comfort for Astros’ fans, but those in Cincinnati can officially raise their expectations for the two-year, $15MM free agent signing. If the Miley that shows up to Great American Ballpark more closely resembles the guy who put up a 3.06 ERA through 156 innings prior to September (and if the offense rebounds), the Reds might finally live up to the dependable, high-quality performance the chamber of commerce had in mind when adopting the the nickname of the Blue Chip City.
Astros Re-Sign Joe Smith
The Astros have announced a two-year deal to bring back reliever Joe Smith. The deal includes $8MM in guaranteed money, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Smith is a client of Excel Sports Management.
Smith missed a big chunk of 2019 owing to a torn Achilles, but bounced back with aplomb and threw 25 excellent innings down the stretch. The 35-year-old sidearmer obviously convinced the Houston brass that he has plenty left in the tank.
Though he has rarely been a major strikeout pitcher, Smith has always produced strong groundball numbers. Outside of his tendon tear, he has been quite durable. And he has a long and consistent history of befuddling opposing hitters. In 695 1/3 frames at the game’s highest level, he carries a 2.98 ERA and has yet to finish a season with an ERA over 3.83.
Upon his return last year, Smith sat comfortably in his typical range in terms of velocity and swinging-strike rate. He attacked the zone more than ever and lived to tell the tale, unlike many 2019 pitchers in a longball-laden season.
Despite his relatively late return to action, the Astros had gained full trust by the end of the season. They went to Smith frequently in the postseason, with four appearances each in the ALCS and World Series after a pair of divisional showings. He ultimately allowed three earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Update On Investigation Into Sign-Stealing
There seems little doubt now that the Astros participated in sign-stealing aided by a live feed from a centerfield camera. The Astros’ maintain their belief that actions at the time were “in line with industry standards,” per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The newest sticking point is an insistence out of Houston that the camera in question was already in place and not purchased/installed specifically for the purpose of stealing signs. It may seem a bizarre place to draw a line in the sand – and on its own hardly exculpatory – but the installation of equipment does affect the breadth of involvement necessary to put their sign-stealing process in place. At least one witness claimed that many teams use a similar camera for the decoding of signs. Said the witness, “All we asked for was a live feed.” Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintron played the part of antagonist as the conflict escalated between the Astros and Yankees during the ALCS, though as of right now, it’s unclear who might expect discipline beyond GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. Regardless, it does seem that the investigation is progressing and disciple of some sort seems likely. Now, let’s get back to winter action and check in on a couple of clubs…
Latest On Astros-Mets Talks Regarding Carlos Correa
- Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
Astros Avoid Arbitration With Lance McCullers Jr.
The Astros announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Lance McCullers Jr.. He’ll receive $4.1MM, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.
That’s just what MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected McCullers to earn. But it’d be disingenuous to claim credit for this one. The talented hurler missed the entirety of the 2019 season, so he was clearly in line for a repeat salary.
McCullers, 26, will be looking to return from Tommy John surgery in his penultimate season of team control. When last we saw him, in 2018, he turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He carries a 3.67 ERA in his career. If McCullers can return to that sort of productivity and stay on the mound, it would go a long way towards helping the Houston rotation make up for the loss of Gerrit Cole.
Astros Notes: Correa, Mets, Toro, Barnes, Dodgers
Carlos Correa’s name came up in trade speculation on Tuesday, leading the shortstop to take time out of his honeymoon to call Jeff Luhnow, the Astros general manager told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). Luhnow told the former Rookie Of The Year to not worry about the reports, and he further dismissed the idea of any major trades on Wednesday, telling media members that he would be “surprised if we moved any of our core players.” Some type of creative salary management seems inevitable, however, if the Astros are to make roster upgrades while avoiding at least the top level ($248MM+) of luxury tax punishment level. Houston already has a projected tax number of just over $231MM, as per Roster Resource, so even getting under the secondary punishment threshold of $228MM will take work. Since this would mark Houston’s first time over the luxury tax barrier, they would at least face only a first-timer charge, though topping the $248MM mark would also come with a ten-slot drop in their 2021 draft order.
More from the American League champions…
- The Mets were one team that at least checked in about Correa, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino tweets, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo described these conversations as “more fantasy baseball” than a truly serious discussion. New York would make an intriguing suitor for Correa since the Mets have a former top-tier prospect of their own at shortstop in Amed Rosario, and it’s fair to wonder whether Rosario would have been a logical trade chip to head Houston’s way in any Correa deal.
- Luhnow also told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that he had been receiving “a number of inquiries” about Abraham Toro. MLB Pipeline ranks Toro as the Astros’ fifth-best prospect, after the 22-year-old hit .273/.365/.461 with 48 homers over 1544 career minor league PA. This led to Toro making his Major League debut last season, a 25-game/89-PA stint highlighted by his ninth-inning, two-run homer that provided the only offense Justin Verlander needed in his September 1st no-hitter against the Blue Jays. Toro has mostly played third base, though he has some experience at first and second base as well, making him even more attractive to interested teams. This multi-position ability could position Toro as Yuli Gurriel’s heir apparent since Gurriel is a free agent after 2020, or the Astros’ payroll crunch could potentially get them to consider including Toro along with a hefty contract to clear some space on the books.
- The Astros have asked the Dodgers about catcher Austin Barnes, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports (via Twitter), as Houston likes Barnes’ pitch-framing ability. It wasn’t long ago that Barnes seemed to be in line to be the Dodgers’ catcher of the future, though after hitting only .204/.311/.316 over 480 plate appearances in 2018-19, Barnes has firmly fallen behind Will Smith on the depth chart. Plus, Los Angeles has Keibert Ruiz on the way up as another blue chip catching prospect, making Barnes all the more potentially expendable. StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus do indeed give Barnes high grades for his framing, with BP also grading his blocking ability as generally above average. Barnes is signed for $1.1MM in 2020 and is arbitration-controlled through 2022, though he isn’t a youngster, as he turns 30 at the end of December.
Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner
Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…
- The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
- It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
- Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
- The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.
Rangers Exploring Outfield Trades, Pursuing Chirinos Reunion
8:58pm: The Cardinals are also in the mix for Mazara, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. That jibes with their goal of acquiring a lefty-hitting outfielder.
6:17pm: The White Sox are “working hard to land” Mazara, as Jim Bowden of SiriusXM first reported. As for Chirinos, the Astros, Tigers, Rays and Pirates join the Rangers in the market for him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
1:04pm: The Rangers have remained busy on the market, with MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reporting that the club is active on multiple fronts (Twitter links). While it stands to reason that the team is still considering moves in the rotation, the attention now is on the position player side after several notable pitching additions.
It has long seemed likely that the Rangers would explore possible swaps involving its existing outfielders. But the team now appears to be engaged in a somewhat dedicated manner. Sullivan says the intention is to “move one of their extra left-handed hitting outfielders,” with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, and Shin-Soo Choo named as possibilities.
That’s a highly varied group of players. Mazara is a mid-arbitration player that hasn’t turned the corner in the majors but remains quite youthful. Calhoun hasn’t had the same degree of opportunity (and hasn’t logged as much service) but showed well with the bat last year. He’s also still a question mark defensively, as is the aging Choo, who can still hit but isn’t worth the remainder of his big contract.
The Rangers are said to be chatting with the Diamondbacks about some of these players; the clubs were connected last night regarding Mazara. Evidently talks between the Rangers and Marlins didn’t advance. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio tweets that the Fish were turned off by the asking price for Mazara, a former top prospect.
Meanwhile, there’s “mutual interest” in a new deal with backstop Robinson Chirinos. That’s rather an interesting development, considering the Texas organization surprisingly declined its option over him last fall. The replacement plan fell apart, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored, while Chirinos flourished with the cross-state Astros.
The 35-year-old Chirinos and the Rangers are amply familiar with one another, as he played with the team for six seasons. It seems the sides carry no ill will over the way things ended. The catching market has moved rather swiftly to this point, leaving Chirinos and Jason Castro as the top available options.
Jeff Luhnow On Astros' Needs
- While payroll looks to be an issue for the Astros, they’re nonetheless hoping to address some needs of their own. President of baseball ops/GM Jeff Luhnow old Jake Kaplan of The Athletic and other reporters Tuesday that the reigning AL champions are seeking a catcher, a starter and one or more relievers. “I think the catching has been our top pursuit. But it doesn’t mean that it’s going to be the first one to get completed,” Luhnow said. The Astros’ top backstop from 2019, Robinson Chirinos, is currently among their free agents.
