Astros Sign Jake Odorizzi
The Astros have added the top player remaining in free agency, announcing an agreement with righty Jake Odorizzi. The deal is a two-year pact with a player option for the 2023 season. Odorizzi is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Odorizzi is guaranteed $23.5MM. That takes the form of a $6MM signing bonus, a $6MM salary in 2021, a $5MM salary in 2022, and a $6.5MM player option for 2023. The option comes with a $3.25MM buyout. Performance escalators can max the option out at $12.5MM while also bringing the potential buyout figure up to $6.25MM. Combining to make 30 appearances from 2021-22 will bring Odorizzi to just shy of $24MM over those two seasons in salary, while incentives could push the deal up to $30MM.
On top of the $5MM base salary for the 2022 season, Odorizzi would make $500K for reaching 100 innings pitched, $1MM apiece for throwing 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings, with another $1.25MM if he reaches the 160 inning mark. The deal also contains some deferred money.
The addition of the player option is an obvious method of spreading out the contract’s luxury tax hit, similar to the Yankees’ recent agreements with Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day. With just a $3.25MM difference between the value of the option and the buyout, it’s highly unlikely Odorizzi exercises it two years from now. However, the player option pushes the contract’s guaranteed money out to three years, while still giving Odorizzi the chance to re-test free agency after 2022. That lowers the deal’s average annual value (which determines the luxury tax calculation) to a modest $7.83MM. Altogether, that brings the Astros’ CBT ledger for 2021 to around $203.6MM, per Cot’s Contracts. That keeps them barely below the $210MM tax threshold, albeit without leaving much room to make in-season additions without cutting payroll elsewhere on the roster if they’re adamant about not going over.
Moreso than paying additional dollars, the Astros’ bigger concern about the luxury tax may be more related to the draft-pick compensation penalties attached to teams that go over the CBT, as the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted. With McCullers, Carlos Correa, and possibly Justin Verlander all in line to receive qualifying offers next winter, the Astros may be planning to reload their farm system with extra compensatory picks should these players all reject a QO and sign elsewhere. Houston would also have to surrender a higher amount of draft and international signing bonus capital for signing a free agent who rejected a QO from another club.
Reports surfaced last week about Houston’s interest in Odorizzi, which seemed natural considering that Framber Valdez is in danger of missing the entire 2021 season after suffering a fractured ring finger on his throwing hand. While nothing has been decided about Valdez’s status just yet, Odorizzi’s addition will help reinforce an Astros rotation that also includes Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier. More inexperienced options like Luis Garcia and Brandon Bielak will now project as Triple-A depth rather than be called upon to immediately contribute at the big league level.
Odorizzi doesn’t quite fit the Astros’ usual model of pitching acquisition, as he lacks the big spin rates that Houston has often favored in recent years. It could be that the need to replace Valdez put Odorizzi on the team’s radar, and Astros GM James Click is quite familiar with Odorizzi from their time together in the Rays organization. Houston will be gaining a veteran arm who has a track record of eating innings, though Odorizzi did pitch only 13 2/3 frames with the Twins in 2020 due to a series of minor injuries.
Blister problems, a ribcage strain, and being struck in the chest by a line drive resulted in three separate injured list stints for Odorizzi, bringing a sour end to what had been a pretty successful tenure in Minnesota. Odorizzi posted a 4.01 ERA and an above-average 24.83K% over 323 1/3 innings in 2018-19, and chose to return to the Twin Cities in 2020 after accepting the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer.
This decision to bet on himself didn’t entirely work out, as a more typical Odorizzi season in 2020 would have likely resulted in a longer and more lucrative free agent deal for the hurler (who turns 31 later this month). With Odorizzi having control over his fate for the 2023 season, he ended up technically receiving the three-year contract he hoped to receive for much of the winter, though it took him almost a week into March to finally land the contract.
MLBTR ranked Odorizzi 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a three-year, $39MM deal. The Twins, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays were among the many teams who had some level of interest in Odorizzi over the course of the offseason, with clubs joining and departing the hunt depending on other transactions.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported the sides had an agreement on a two-year contract with a 2023 player option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first with the contract structure. Odorizzi’s former teammate, Trevor Plouffe, provided a breakdown of the incentive structure for the 2022 season. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to note the deferrals.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
COVID Notes: 3/8/21
The latest on COVID-19 and Major League Baseball:
- The Astros have placed Pedro Báez on the injured list, per a team announcement. The move clears space on the 40-man roster for Jake Odorizzi, whose signing has been made official. While the club didn’t give a reason for Báez’s IL placement, it’s almost certainly related to COVID-19. The veteran reliever was one of eight Houston pitchers to leave the team last weekend as part of the league’s health and safety protocols. It isn’t clear if Báez was one of the players to have tested positive for the coronavirus; players can also be placed on the COVID IL for exhibiting symptoms or for exposure.
AL West Notes: Seager, Bregman, Lowrie, Murphy
Since it seems unlikely that the Mariners will exercise their $15MM club option on Kyle Seager for the 2022 season, the third baseman could very well be entering his 11th and final season in a Seattle uniform. Seager told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he is focused on baseball rather than any contractual possibilities, but did say that if he does leave the M’s, he wants to go out with only positive feelings between himself and the organization. This wasn’t exactly helped by the recent description of Seager as “overpaid” by former Mariners president/CEO Kevin Mather, and while Seager disagreed with the label, he seemed to shrug off the criticism. “You certainly don’t love hearing comments about you like that….but that stuff is out of my control. And if I got frustrated every time someone complained about me, I’d be having a tough go of it,” Seager said.
Beyond just leaving on a high note off the field, Seager naturally would also love some more success on the field — the M’s have enjoyed just three winning seasons in Seager’s decade with the team, and haven’t reached the postseason. The rebuilding Mariners may not be quite ready to contend just yet, and Seager is something of a difficult trade candidate since his 2022 club option vests into a guarantee if he is dealt. (Plus, Seager will gain full no-trade rights roughly three months into the 2021 season, as he is on pace to achieve 10-and-5 status.) The third baseman said that he hasn’t spoken with GM Jerry Dipoto about trade possibilities or the club option, but Seager figures that without the vesting clause, he would have been moved a long time ago as part of Seattle’s roster overhaul.
More from around the AL West…
- Alex Bregman has been nursing a balky lefty hamstring in camp, and the Astros star tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that the injury first occurred in early January. After being careful throughout the offseason and during Spring Training, Bregman felt his hamstring was around 90 percent healed and he is planning to soon get some games under his belt in preparation for Opening Day. Bregman also noted that he has been “trying to clean up running form…whether it’s posture or working on my hips and stuff like that” to avoid more hamstring injuries in the future, as he missed over two weeks last season due to a right hamstring strain.
- Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie could play in his first game of the spring by Tuesday, if the veteran gets through base-running activities today without any setbacks. Oakland manager Bob Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and other reporters that today’s drill is “kind of the last hurdle for” Lowrie in being cleared for action. Lowrie underwent knee surgery in October, as he looks to finally escape the knee problems that plagued him in 2019 and 2020 as a member of the Mets. After appearing in only nine games in 2019, Lowrie didn’t play at all last season.
- In another Athletics health update, Sean Murphy has been catching bullpens and will hit soft toss on Sunday, according to Melvin. Murphy is recovering from a collapsed lung and a subsequent surgery in the offseason, and while it isn’t yet known when he might appear in a Spring Training game, Melvin said the catcher is “moving along nicely.”
Quick Hits: Cishek, Souza, Herrera
As spring training games continue and we inch closer to the 2021 season, let’s check in on a couple of notes from around the game…
- Veterans Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. are working to make the Astros’ roster out of camp, but their chances took a hit yesterday with the signing of Jake Odorizzi, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Cishek would make a $2.25MM salary were he to make the team, while Souza would earn $1.15MM. The Astros very much prefer to stay under the luxury tax to avoid the worsening of the draft pick compensation they might receive if Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, or Lance McCullers Jr. are offered (and decline) a qualifying offer at year’s end. While the terms of Odorizzi’s deal are not yet known, it’s likely to take them close to the $210 luxury tax threshold.
- With Adam Haseley on the injured list and likely to miss opening day, Odubel Herrera has jumped into pole position to be the guy in center when the season starts, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He was an All-Star in the grass in 2017, but an 85-game suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy in 2019 derailed his once-promising career. Said manager Joe Girardi on Herrera’s chances to make the team, “We’re not allowed to punish anyone more than what MLB did. If Odubel doesn’t make the team, it would be what we would consider probably a lack of performance or we’d be more comfortable with getting a few more at-bats. That sort of thing. He’s in the running just like a lot of other guys.” The 29-year-old fell off dramatically after posting a 107 wRC+ from 2015 to 2017. He has not appeared in a big-league game since May 2019.
Injury Notes: Longoria, Urias, Whitley
Evan Longoria made his spring training debut today at designated hitter, but it might be some time until he’s regularly taking grounders at third. He’s working his way back from plantar fasciitis, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). This is an injury that has plagued Longoria in the past, and it does have a tendency to linger. The Giants have no reason to rush Longoria, who hit .254/.297/.425 in 2020. The Giants built up their infield depth this winter. Tommy La Stella is the most likely to see time at third while Longoria is out with Donovan Solano staying at the keystone. If the injury lingers, San Francisco could also use the opportunity to get extra at-bats for Wilmer Flores.
- Luis Urias will be out for a day or two with a hamstring injury, but it’s “very minor” and unlikely to affect his playing time beyond the next couple of days, per the Athletic’s Will Sammon (via Twitter). Urias is looking to take advantage of an opportunity to win the everyday shortstop job in Milwaukee. The Brewers are clearly comfortable playing Orlando Arcia and Travis Shaw on the left side of the infield, but they’d like to see Urias in one of those spots. Arcia has been moved around this spring for the first time in his career in an effort to give Urias more training at short.
- Forrest Whitley is again having a tough spring. His arrival in camp was initially delayed because of coronavirus intake protocols, and now he’s dealing with a sore arm, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Whitley has struggled to get healthy and produce as expected for a top prospect, but there is still hope that he will establish himself at some point in 2021. He is on the Astros’ 40-man roster now, and while the stakes seem high for 2021, Whitley is still only 23 years old.
Pitching Notes: Payamps, Mata, Osuna
The Red Sox and Blue Jays continue their divisional tug-of-war over right-hander Joel Payamps. The Blue Jays claimed Payamps from Boston today, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Payamps began the winter as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he made four appearances totaling seven innings over the past two seasons. The Red Sox claimed the 26-year-old at the end of November, but since early February he’s been passed back and forth between Boston and Toronto every two weeks. The Blue Jays claimed him on February 10th. The Red Sox claimed him back on February 22nd. Today the Blue Jays have claimed him again, designating Jacob Waguespack for assignment to make room, adds Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). This isn’t perhaps the stakes that we’ve come to expect out of AL East rivalries, but it’s about as good as it gets this time of year. Let’s see what other news is fit to print…
- Red Sox prospect Bryan Mata has a slight tear in his UCL, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Mata will avoid surgery for now, though there’s no timetable for his return. Mata is the 4th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system per Baseball America. He’s ranked third in their system by Fangraphs. Obviously, if rest and rehab don’t do the trick, a long road to recovery may await the 21-year-old right-hander. For now, however, Mata and the Red Sox remain optimistic. He made it as high as Double-A in 2019 with 11 starts, a 5.03 ERA/3.99 FIP and promising 52.1 percent groundball rate.
- Roberto Osuna will hold a showcase for teams in the Dominican Republic on March 12th, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Osuna is still just 26-years-old, but he made only four appearances with the Astros in 2020. After initially being diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, Osuna sought a second opinion and chose to rehab the injury instead. Osuna, of course, was already a fairly high-risk signing – at least from an optics perspective – even before the injury because of a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy back in 2018. That said, when healthy, he’s been an incredibly productive bullpen arm, most recently leading the American League with 38 saves in 2019. He owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 315 innings for his career.
Latest On Jake Odorizzi
7:05pm: The Blue Jays, who were reportedly interested in Odorizzi during the offseason, remain in the mix, Heyman tweets. Other teams besides Houston and Toronto are also involved, per Heyman.
1:09pm: The Astros are among the teams “looking at” free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Houston recently lost Framber Valdéz to a broken finger. There’s been no definitive word on how long Valdéz will be out, but Heyman reported yesterday the initial evaluation suggested he’ll require surgery, which could prove to be season-ending.
Odorizzi is the top starter remaining in free agency, so it’s natural the Astros would check in with his representatives. Adding him would undoubtedly help the current roster; as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explored yesterday, Houston’s projected rotation now consists of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Cristian Javier and Luis García. That’s a talented group but one light on major league track record at the back end. Beyond that quintet, Brandon Bielak and Forrest Whitley look like the top depth options. (Justin Verlander likely won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September).
Teams are often forced to rely on seven or eight starters over the course of a typical season. This year, they’ll be faced with unprecedented challenges managing workloads coming off a shortened campaign. Greinke’s 67 innings in 2020 led the current projected rotation, so it’d be difficult to count on all (or perhaps any) of the group to go 160-plus innings in 2021.
Odorizzi himself is coming off an injury-ruined year. Three injured list stints (for an intercostal strain, a chest contusion, and blisters, respectively) kept him to just 13.2 innings across four starts for the Twins. That diminished workload probably limits Odorizzi’s innings total this year as well, but he’d add a usually-durable, productive starter to the mix. The 30-year-old averaged 165-plus innings per season from 2014-19 with a cumulative 3.88 ERA and solid strikeout (23%) and walk (8.2%) rates. A few of those years were spent with the Rays, where current Astros general manager James Click worked in the Tampa Bay front office.
That all makes for a logical match on paper, but it’s questionable whether the organization is willing to meet his asking price. Odorizzi was reportedly seeking a three-year deal in the $13MM – $15MM range annually earlier this offseason; he apparently remains content to wait out the market rather than move off that price point. That’s not an outlandish ask for a mid-rotation starter, but concerns about the luxury tax could keep the Astros from spending at that level.
Houston’s current $181MM payroll, as projected by Roster Resource, seems more than manageable for an organization that was set to spend over $210MM on players last season before prorating salaries. However, Heyman notes the Astros’ luxury tax ledger, which uses contracts’ average annual values rather than current year salaries, sits about $13MM shy of the first threshold ($210MM). It’s possible Houston could look into a longer-term deal with Odorizzi that lowers the AAV for tax purposes. Even that type of arrangement, though, would likely push the Astros right up to or over the tax barrier, perhaps necessitating other payroll-shedding moves to stay beneath the threshold and leave room for any in-season acquisitions.
It’s arguable the win-now Astros should be willing to pay the marginal taxes in order to take their best shot at a World Series in 2021. That doesn’t seem likely, though. Houston reportedly wasn’t particularly active in the bidding for free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., another obvious roster fit, because of luxury tax concerns. As Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last month, exceeding the threshold would reduce the draft pick compensation Houston could receive for their slate of potential qualifying offer recipients (Carlos Correa and McCullers among them) next winter. Houston management apparently found that a deterrent, particularly with the organization being dealt significant draft penalties in 2020-21 due to the sign-stealing scandal. An Odorizzi signing would likely raise the same concerns.
Injury Notes: Cain, Realmuto, Astros, Lowrie, Severino
Lorenzo Cain recently strained his calf in batting practice and is expected to miss one or two weeks, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The injury is believed to be “very minor,” but the Brewers will be cautious in bringing the veteran center fielder back to action. Yesterday’s agreement with Jackie Bradley Jr. gives the Brewers cover at the position if Cain winds up needing more recovery time than expected. Manager Craig Counsell reiterated (via Murray) that Cain “is our center fielder,” so it seems Bradley’s ticketed for right field on most days if everyone’s healthy.
A few more injury updates:
- Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto had his hard cast removed and replaced with a splint as he works his way back from a fractured right thumb, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report. That’s a generally encouraging sign, as Zolecki notes that this had been the anticipated next step in his recovery. However, Realmuto still has not progressed to a point where he can hit or throw. It remains unclear if he’ll be ready in time for Opening Day. Something resembling a typical season from Realmuto, arguably the game’s top catcher, is no doubt a key piece of Philadelphia’s hopes of snapping a nine-year playoff drought.
- Third baseman Alex Bregman and designated hitter Yordan Álvarez haven’t yet gotten into spring training games for the Astros, but it doesn’t seem there’s much cause for concern. Bregman “tweaked” his hamstring and is taking things slowly, notes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The 26-year-old would be playing through the soreness if it were the regular season, he says. Álvarez is a little further from game action, per manager Dusty Baker (via McTaggart), although that seems to be mere caution after the young slugger underwent season-ending surgery on both knees last August.
- Jed Lowrie is seeing action in simulated games but has not yet been cleared to play in spring training games, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). The former All-Star second baseman is back in A’s camp as a non-roster invitee after a two-year stint with the Mets that was ruined by injuries, most recently continued trouble with his left knee. Lowrie has taken just eight MLB place appearances since leaving Oakland after a stellar 2018 season.
- Yankees right-hander Luis Severino continues to progress “really well” from his February 2020 Tommy John surgery, general manager Brian Cashman said this afternoon (via Erik Boland of Newsday). Severino had already moved to a long toss routine and soon should be able to throw off a mound, Cashman said. One of the best pitchers in the league from 2017-18, Severino has been limited to just 12 innings over the past two seasons by injury. His return would be a boon to a New York rotation that is high on upside but has plenty of risk behind ace Gerrit Cole.
COVID Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Cordero
Latest notes
- Major League Baseball released its latest set of COVID-19 testing results this afternoon. Out of 13,718 monitoring tests conducted this week, five (all belonging to players) returned a positive result, marking a 0.04% positivity rate. None of the week’s 81 intake tests came back positive.
Earlier today
- Health and safety protocols will keep eight Astros pitchers away from the team for the time being. Right-handers Bryan Abreu, Pedro Báez, Luis García, Cristian Javier, Francis Martes, Enoli Paredes and non-roster invitees Ronel Blanco and Hector Velázquez are all currently away from camp, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Those players’ placement on the COVID-19 list does not mean they have tested positive for the coronavirus; a player can enter health and safety protocols due to exposure to someone who tested positive. Indeed, general manager James Click rejected the notion the team was suffering an outbreak, pointing out (via Rome) that the COVID protocols “cast a wide net” in an attempt to reduce viral transmission. There are no current plans to pause team activities, Click says.
- Franchy Cordero was delayed in reporting to spring training because of a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, but he’s now in camp and taking an intake physical, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). If all goes well, Cordero could start team workouts today. The 26-year-old outfielder was a key part of Boston’s trade return for Andrew Benintendi.
Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez
March 4: The initial recommendation for treatment of Valdez’s injury is surgery, tweets Heyman. The recovery time on the recommended operation would be sizable enough that there’s concern the left-hander could miss the entire season, Heyman adds.
That’d register as a surprise, although we don’t know the extent of the fracture at this point or whether the imaging performed after that initial announcement revealed any additional damage. The club is still seeking further opinions.
March 3, 12:10pm: Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured left ring finger, general manager James Click announced to reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no timetable for his return yet, as he’s slated for additional tests and imaging.
11:58am: Astros lefty Framber Valdez is dealing with a finger injury, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The amount of time he’s expected to miss isn’t clear, as he’s still being evaluated by doctors, but Heyman adds that it’s believed to be “serious” and is expected to keep him out of action for awhile. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Valdez took a Francisco Lindor grounder off the hand during yesterday’s outing, though he pitched another inning after doing so.
An absence of any length for Valdez would be a tough hit for the Astros, who are already unlikely to get much of anything from Justin Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Valdez stepped up in Verlander’s absence and played a huge part in Houston’s playoff run, breaking out with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball over the course of 11 appearances. The 27-year-old completed at least seven innings on six occasions and completed six frames in nine of his 11 outings.
Fielding-independent metrics suggest that Valdez’s 2020 breakout was even better than reflected in his ERA. Valdez’s 60 percent ground-ball rate was one of the best in the game, and his 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate were both markedly better than the league average. The lefty’s 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA both suggest that his 2020 success was far from a fluke.
For the Astros, Valdez is expected to slot into the rotation’s top three alongside Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. It’s a solid-looking group thanks to surprise showings from both Valdez and Javier in 2020, but the depth beyond that quintet lacks big league experience and/or success. Their most experienced options, Josh James and Austin Pruitt, are both on the mend from surgery. James had hip surgery in late October, which came with a six to eight month recovery period. Pruitt had elbow surgery in September and, as of January, was not expected to be ready for Opening Day.
Righty Brandon Bielak was hit hard in 12 appearances last year (six starts, six relief outings), and righties Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu both have fewer than 15 MLB frames under their belts. Garcia did get the ball in a playoff game, but that was largely out of necessity. Prior to 2020, he’d yet to even pitch in Double-A.
Meanwhile, Tyler Ivey and Nivaldo Rodriguez are both on the 40-man roster, but Ivey has yet to pitch in the big leagues and Rodriguez only tossed eight innings of relief in 2020. Prospect Forrest Whitley is also on the 40-man, and he’s still considered a Top 100 farmhand even if his stock has tumbled over the past two years. Former Red Sox swingman Hector Velazquez is in camp as a non-roster player, but the Astros historically haven’t brought in many veterans on non-guaranteed deals and that’s again the case in 2021.