- The Astros were finally able to pop the corks on champagne bottles that had remained on ice through Friday and Saturday, as Sunday saw the team capture its third consecutive AL West title. In a well-written piece from the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome, manager A.J. Hinch credits mentality–not the team’s embarrassment of stars–as the source behind Houston’s success (link). “We just keep on keeping a winning culture, a winning mindset. We show up ready to play every day,” Hinch told Rome. “It’s the thing I’m most proud of. We just stay current in the moment.” Also of note in Rome’s article is a rundown of the club’s utter dominance of its AL West opponents in 2019; the club has won 32 out of its last 38 games at home against AL West competitors, en route to an overall 51-19 record against divisional foes this year.
Astros Rumors
Astros Activate Brad Peacock
The Astros activated right-hander Brad Peacock from the 10-day injured list today. Peacock has been out since August 28 with shoulder discomfort.
When healthy, Peacock, 31, has turned in good results for manager A.J. Hinch, primarily as a starter. In 20 appearances (15 starts), he’s worked to a 4.06 ERA with strikeout (25.4%) and walk (7.8%) rates a little better than league average. Justin Verlander is scheduled to start this afternoon’s game against the Angels, but Peacock told reporters (including Jake Kaplan of the Athletic) he expects to enter in relief.
Peacock figures to have the inside track at a relief role on the Astros’ postseason roster, assuming he shows his typical stuff upon his return. We heard yesterday that Houston may be looking to find room on the playoff roster for rookie Bryan Abreu, though, so Peacock’s progress will certainly be worth monitoring.
Peacock settled for $3.11MM in lieu of an arbitration hearing last winter, and he’ll be eligible for the process one final time this offseason. Assuming he’s healthy, Peacock is a good bet to be tendered a new contract for 2020 at a modest raise above his current salary. While his immediate future seems to be in the bullpen, he’d be worthwhile starting insurance for Houston next year. The club faces the potential free agent departures of Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh.
Astros Concerned With Wade Miley's Struggles
- The Astros are facing what the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome deems a “full-fledged fourth starter crisis” after another uninspiring performance from the previously steady Wade Miley (link). In Saturday’s game against the Angels, Miley failed to complete more than one inning for the third time in four starts. The 32-year-old Miley had looked to be a coup for the Astros front office after signing a one-year/$4.5MM deal this offseason, with a 3.06 ERA through his first 156 innings this year. Unfortunately, the calendar’s turn to September has spelled doom for Miley, who has allowed 18 earned runs in 7 ⅓ September innings. Manager A.J. Hinch is voicing somewhat of a hedged belief in the experienced lefty: “We’re going to figure it out,” manager A.J. Hinch told Rome. “He’s going to be really effective for us. But given the time, it’s a difficult time to assess because he’s got one start left before we need to make some decisions.” Looking back, regression was probably coming for Miley all along, as those first 156 innings were undermined by a .263 BABIP and 4.36 FIP mark.
Bryan Abreu Making Push For Postseason Roster
The Astros are not a team with many holes. With a staff fronted by three aces, a lineup peppered with stars, and a bullpen anchored by the likes of Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly, Houston’s squad currently holds a 33.6% chance of winning the World Series, per Fangraphs’ MLB Playoff Odds calculations. It seems somewhat unfair, then, that such a squad would find a way to get even better heading into October, but that’s exactly what they may be doing now that rookie reliever Bryan Abreu is on the scene. The 22-year-old arm has been so impressive in his first MLB action, in fact, that he may be forcing himself onto the Stros’ postseason roster, according to a report from Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (link).
Abreu, the club’s second-ranked pitching prospect behind Forrest Whitley, has debuted here in the second half with 6.2 innings in which he has punched out ten hitters while walking just three. This production comes on the heels of some shaky bottom-line results in Triple-A this year (5.05 ERA in 13 starts and 20 appearances) that obscured more impressive underlying numbers (11.86 K/9, 3.99 FIP). “He’s nasty,” Hinch told Rome last Sunday. “His breaking ball is as good as anyone we have or anyone that we have had over the last few years. You see the funny swings and the uncomfortable takes, and you realize why the organization was so high on him.”
As noted in Rome’s article, manager AJ Hinch found room for another rookie reliever, Josh James, on 2018’s postseason rosters when James finished the year with a string of impressive appearances. Could Abreu be making a similar case? While Hinch told Rome that no conversations about the postseason roster will begin until the club clinches the AL West, the reporter projects that Will Harris, Pressly, and Osuna are certain locks for the playoff pen. After that, James, Hector Rondon, and Joe Smith are “logical inclusions”, and the impending return of Brad Peacock could account for the final spot. If any injuries befall one of these Houston mainstays–or if Peacock shows signs of rust upon returning–Abreu may be held in firm consideration for postseason action.
Astros Reportedly Had "Strong Interest" In Jordan Lyles Before Deadline
Right-hander Jordan Lyles has been terrific for the Brewers since they acquired him from the Pirates prior to the July trade deadline, but he almost ended up elsewhere before Milwaukee grabbed him. The Astros showed “strong interest” in Lyles leading up to the deadline, Robert Murray of The Athletic reports in a subscription piece delving into his late-season turnaround. Lyles was a first-round pick (38th overall) of the Astros in 2008, but he was unsuccessful as a major leaguer in Houston from 2011-13. The Astros then traded Lyles to the Rockies in a deal for outfielder Dexter Fowler. Lyles has struggled with a few other teams since then, and it’s anyone’s guess whether he’d have thrived this summer had Houston gotten him instead of Milwaukee.
After losing out on Lyles, the Astros still made a couple starting pitching additions at the deadline, landing ace Zack Greinke and another righty in Aaron Sanchez. The Greinke pickup has gone swimmingly thus far, though Sanchez fell somewhat flat before suffering a season-ending injury that might also keep him out for some portion of 2020. Considering Sanchez’s situation, not to mention the pending free agencies of starters Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, perhaps they’ll circle back to Lyles if he hits the open market in the offseason.
Brad Peacock Could Return Sunday
The Astros’ pitching staff received great news Friday when standout reliever Ryan Pressly came back from injury. In yet another welcome development for the club, fellow right-hander Brad Peacock isn’t far from rejoining Pressly and the rest of Houston’s pitchers. Manager A.J. Hinch told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Peacock could return from the injured list as early as Sunday. Peacock hasn’t pitched since Aug. 27.
Shoulder issues have limited Peacock throughout the summer, as he sat out all of July and most of August before a brief comeback and another IL placement. Peacock felt a “sharp pain” in his shoulder in his most recent appearance, leading the Astros to put him back on the shelf. The 31-year-old’s latest shoulder discomfort stemmed from nerve damage in his neck, but the Astros are confident he has moved past it, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes.
If he truly is healthy, Peacock should be a boon to the Astros’ cause as they go for their second World Series title since 2017. The club leads the majors with a 100-53 record, putting it in the driver’s seat in the American League West, and is trying to fend off the 100-54 Yankees for homefield advantage in the AL.
Peacock was a competent member of the Astros’ rotation earlier in the year, but he worked out of their bullpen upon his initial return from the IL and seems likely to do so again for the duration of the campaign. In 20 appearances (15 starts) and 88 2/3 innings this year, Peacock has pitched to a 4.06 ERA/4.30 FIP with 9.54 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9.
Astros Activate Ryan Pressly
The Astros have one of their best pitchers back from the injured list. Barely four weeks after Ryan Pressly underwent an arthroscopic knee procedure, he’s been reinstated from the IL, the team announced. A four- to six-week timeline was projected at the time of the surgery.
Pressly, 30, returns to the ’Stros with enough time left on the calendar to get into a few games as a tuneup for the postseason. He’ll rejoin a bullpen that is currently without teammates Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh, each of whom remains on the injured list. McHugh’s throwing program was recently shut down due to renewed elbow discomfort, while Peacock is trying to work back from shoulder trouble that has hindered him throughout the season.
Given those injuries, a healthy Pressly is all the more important. Since being acquired from the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline, he’s morphed from an above-average reliever to a virtual juggernaut, pitching 78 2/3 innings of 1.94 ERA ball with 104 strikeouts against 17 walks between the regular season and last year’s playoff run. Pressly made his first All-Star team in 2019, and he’s currently tied with Sergio Romo for the MLB lead among qualified relievers in terms of opponents’ chase rate (40.9 percent) while sitting 11th in swinging-strike rate (17.3 percent).
Pressly would’ve been a free agent following the 2019 season were it not for the two-year, $17.5MM contract extension he signed prior to Opening Day. The Astros now control him for both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and his deal also includes a vesting/club option for the 2022 campaign as well.
Aaron Sanchez May Not Be Ready For Start Of 2020 Season
Details surrounding Aaron Sanchez’s shoulder surgery last week remain unusually sparse, but Astros manager A.J. Hinch indicated to reporters today that Sanchez’s rehab process could carry into the 2020 season (Twitter link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
The uncertainty surrounding Sanchez’s readiness for the 2020 season only further muddies the Astros’ decision on whether to tender him a contract this winter. The 27-year-old Sanchez was a paid a relatively modest $3.9MM salary in 2019 and struggled when healthy enough to take the ball, so his forthcoming arbitration raise will be anything but exorbitant. But, if the Astros are concerned that the right-hander will miss a substantial portion of the 2020 campaign, then it’s possible they could simply move on. Doing so just months after trading Derek Fisher to acquire Sanchez and Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays certainly wouldn’t be an ideal outcome, but spending on a player whose health outlook is cloudy enough could potentially prove more detrimental yet.
There’s reason for the Astros to roll the dice on Sanchez, of course. Although he’s been consistently plagued by fingernail and blister issues in recent seasons, he was excellent in Toronto as recently as 2016, when he pitched 192 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 7.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and an outstanding 54.4 percent ground-ball rate. Add in that Sanchez can be retained at a relatively low rate and that the ’Stros could lose Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh to free agency this winter, and a low-cost flier on Sanchez has its appeal.
Then again, the Astros were able to wait out the starting pitching market and sign Miley for a $4.5MM guarantee last winter. They could seek a similarly low-cost match with a free-agent starter this winter rather than promise a comparable sum to Sanchez in arbitration. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will return to front next year’s rotation, and the Astros will also likely have Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery. Houston does already have more than $156MM committed to the 2020 payroll — not including arbitration raises for Carlos Correa, Brad Peacock, Roberto Osuna, Jake Marisnick, Biagini and a likely repeat of McCullers’ $4.1MM salary — so the team may not be keen on further spending on a player with this level of uncertainty.
Astros Stop Collin McHugh’s Throwing Program
The Astros have shut down Collin McHugh after the right-hander experienced continued pain during his latest throwing session, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). While the team hasn’t formally indicated that McHugh’s season is over, the latest setback certainly calls into question whether he’ll be able to contribute again in 2019 — be it in the regular season or in the playoffs.
McHugh has been on the injured list since Aug. 31 due to elbow discomfort — his second such IL placement in 2019. The 32-year-old opened the season with a chance to reclaim his spot in the Houston rotation but struggled badly in eight starts, pitching to a 6.37 ERA (5.27 FIP, 4.46 xFIP) through 41 innings of work. McHugh managed a strikeout per inning with respectable control in that time, but he also served up nine long balls in those 41 frames (1.98 HR/9).
Houston dropped McHugh to the bullpen in mid-May, and he landed on the injured list after just two appearances — ultimately missing six weeks due to the aforementioned elbow troubles. That hiatus notwithstanding, McHugh has been sharp since moving back into a bullpen role. In his past 33 2/3 innings, he’s worked to a 2.67 ERA (3.43 ERA, 4.22 xFIP) and averaged 10.7 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings pitched. Most importantly, he’s managed to once again keep the ball in the yard, as he’s yielded only three home runs in that span.
Today’s news not only clouds McHugh’s chances of returning to the team in 2019 — it calls into question whether he’ll pitch again as an Astro at all. McHugh is set to become a free agent at season’s end, so it’s in his best interest to get back to the mound and demonstrate health in some capacity if he can. Two IL stints for elbow issues in his platform year will be a red flag, to some extent, for all interested parties anyhow, but finishing the year on a healthy note would obviously be preferable.
It stands to reason that McHugh will draw interest from teams both as a starter and a reliever this winter, but that level of interest will surely be dependent on the health of his elbow. If he’s unable to throw before the offseason begins, he could potentially set up some throwing sessions for teams to watch over the winter as a means of proving that his elbow is back up to full strength.
Colton Shaver To Work As Catcher In AFL
- The Astros are sending slugger Colton Shaver to the Arizona Fall League to work as a catcher, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Houston’s 39th-round pick in 2017, Shaver ascended to Double-A this season despite that lackluster draft status, and his power and walk rate were hard to overlook. While Shaver’s average suffered because of a 32 percent strikeout rate, he still hit .223/.357/.500 with 15 home runs in an extremely pitcher-friendly Texas League. Shaver has played primarily first base in the pros and was a frequent designated hitter in college at BYU, but he played catcher up until college and approached the Astros about working at the position this past spring. He caught 29 games in the minors this season and will attempt to continue the transition in the AFL. Houston’s system is thin on catching prospects, so a successful transition would be a notable boost for both Shaver and the Astros organization.
