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After 2014 Mess, Astros Pleased With 2015 Draft

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The Astros had a strange and disappointing 2014 draft, failing to sign top overall pick Brady Aiken and also failing to sign highly regarded fifth-rounder Jacob Nix when they lost the bonus pool allotment contingent upon Aiken’s signing. But amateur scouting director Mike Elias is pleased with his team’s 2015 draft and feels it makes up for the disappointing results in 2014, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes.

“I don’t think I’ll ever forget about that unfortunate part of that draft class,” says Elias. “I think we took a lot of other good players in that draft, but to certainly not sign the first overall pick, have what happened happen, and have the other complications that arose from that occur, it was an unpleasant experience I think for everyone involved.”

Since the Astros didn’t sign Aiken, they got the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, which they used to sign LSU shortstop Alex Bregman. They also got Florida high school outfielder Kyle Tucker with their regular first-round pick (No. 5 overall), then picked another top talent, Georgia high school outfielder Daz Cameron, with the No. 37 overall pick, a Comp Round A selection they had acquired in the trade that sent Jarred Cosart the Marlins. All three have begun their careers in the Astros organization.

That the Astros had both the No. 2 and No. 5 overall picks gave them an enormous bonus pool of about $17.3MM, far bigger than that of that of the Rockies, who had the second biggest pool at about $14MM, and more than twice as large as the average pool, which came in at around $7.46MM.

The Astros have signed all their picks in the first ten rounds. Bregman signed for $5.9MM, significantly less than his allotment of about $7.4MM, and the Astros saved on later picks as well, picking college seniors in the seventh through tenth rounds as a way of limiting costs. They were thus able to sign Cameron away from a Florida State commitment with a hefty $4MM bonus that ties Tucker for the fourth-largest bonus in the entire draft so far (keeping in mind that top overall pick Dansby Swanson has not yet signed). The Astros also signed their 11th-round pick, California high school lefty Patrick Sandoval, for $900K, of which $800K counted against their pool.

“[T]o come away with three top 10 players, essentially, out of two high picks and a (compensation round pick at No. 37), it’s huge,” Elias says. “And it is, I think, the optimal outcome for the compensation that we received for not signing Brady last year. … [O]n paper, I do feel that we made the most of a scenario we were presented with for 2015.”

Latest On Eddy Julio Martinez

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Top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez remains unsigned a week after the beginning of the July 2 international signing period, but the Dodgers and Giants still lead the race to sign him, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. Both teams have workouts scheduled for Martinez in the coming week.

The Cubs, White Sox, Rangers and Astros also have shown significant interest. Sanchez points out, though, that the Dodgers, Giants and maybe the Cubs have the edge, because Martinez’s bonus, likely to be eight figures, will incur maximum penalties for the team that signs him, including the inability to sign any player for more than $300K in either of the next two international signing periods. The Dodgers and Giants are already on pace to incur those penalties — the Dodgers’ expensive current class includes $16MM signee Yadier Alvarez, while the Giants’ includes $6MM signee Lucius Fox. The Cubs appear likely to incur maximum penalties as well. The White Sox, Rangers and Astros have not incurred such penalties, so they appear to have at least some incentive not to sign Martinez.

MLB.com ranks Martinez the No. 1 prospect available this signing period, comparing the 20-year-old to Andruw Jones and praising his power, baserunning and defense. Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription only) is less bullish, suggesting Martinez’s power leads more to doubles than home runs and noting that not all scouts believe he’ll stick as a starter in center field.

West Notes: A’s, Kazmir, Machi, Ibanez

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The Athletics are in a “holding pattern” on trade talks as they continue to see how things progress in the coming weeks, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). Nevertheless, likely buyers appear to be taking a close look at Oakland’s roster, as Rosenthal counts the Blue Jays, Astros, Royals, Tigers, Nationals, and Pirates among the clubs that sent scouts to last night’s game.

  • Scott Kazmir threw for the A’s last night, of course, and left after just three innings of work with forearm tightness. Kazmir insisted after the game that it was not a major source of concern, and indeed Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes on Twitter that he was able to play catch today without apparent issue.
  • Giants reliever Jean Machi appears at risk of becoming a roster casualty when the club welcomes back Jeremy Affeldt and/or Tim Lincecum, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes on Twitter. The 33-year-old has produced outstanding results in each of the last two seasons, putting up 119 1/3 innings of 2.49 ERA pitching. But it’s been a different story in 2015, as Machi has suffered a notable decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.8 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9, presently) and owns a 5.29 ERA in 32 1/3 frames.
  • The Rangers got a bargain on recent international signee Andy Ibanez, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. Texas landed the 22-year-old infielder for just $1.6MM, but Badler pegs him as roughly equivalent in value to a supplemental first-round or second-round draft pick.

Astros GM Luhnow On Potential Bullpen Additions

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The Astros have had one of the better collective bullpens in all of baseball this season, but GM Jeff Luhnow tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that he’ll still be on the lookout for a hard-throwing bullpen arm this month. “I think you can always use another good arm,” said Luhnow. “You look at the arms we have in the bullpen: we’ve got a sinker baller, a slider guy, different looks. Neshek is a funky guy. The one guy we’re probably missing is the flamethrower guy. …but those guys are hard to find. Certainly we’re going to keep our eyes open.”

Houston has received an excellent return on its offseason investment in Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Joe Thatcher. The trio of veteran relievers have combined to deliver a 2.96 ERA in 82 innings of relief this year, and they’ve been complemented nicely by waiver claim Will Harris (0.93 ERA), left-hander Tony Sipp (3.19) and right-hander Josh Fields (2.57).

Given the success of the current group, it’s not all that surprising to see Luhnow categorize the addition of a hard-throwing reliever to be more of a luxury than a necessity. As Drellich notes, the answer could come from within as well. Both Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez average about 94.5 mph on their fastball and will have their innings monitored. The Astros plan to find a way to keep a way to keep McCullers available for a potential playoff push, Drellich writes, and Velasquez could also fit into the bullpen picture as well.

The first name that comes to mind when discussing hard-throwing trade candidates among relievers would be Aroldis Chapman, though the tone of Luhnow’s comments doesn’t seem to indicate that the team is gunning for a reliever of that caliber. Additional relief arms that are among the league-leaders in velocity (via Fangraphs’ leaderboards) and happen to be on non-contending clubs include Jake Diekman and Ken Giles of the Phillies, Bryan Morris and Sam Dyson of the Marlins, and Jeremy Jeffress of the Brewers.

Astros, 11th-Round Pick Sandoval Agree To $900K Bonus

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The Astros have agreed to a $900K bonus with 11th-round pick Patrick Sandoval, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (on Twitter). Sandoval, a high school left-hander out of California, is receiving an enormous bonus for a player selected this late in the draft. Under the current rules, bonuses for players drafted after the 10th round do not count toward a team’s draft pool so long as they are $100K or less. In other words, the Astros are taking an $800K hit to their bonus pool with this bonus.

Houston has, to this point, spent $17,040,000 of its $17,289,200 bonus pool (per MLB.com), so the Sandoval signing will put them over their limit. However, teams are allowed to exceed their draft pool by less than five percent without forfeiting future picks. The $249K remaining in the team’s pool plus the maximum $863K overage means that Houston is still about $313K shy of incurring the loss of a first-round pick in the 2016 draft.

Sandoval’s bonus, then, results in a $550,800 overage on the Astros’ behalf. That overage will be taxed at 75 percent, meaning Houston is paying $413,100 in luxury taxes to acquire Sandoval. In essence, his $900K bonus will actually cost the club $1.313MM.

In Sandoval, the Astros are acquiring a player who ranked as the 135th prospect in this year’s draft, per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel. Callis and MLB.com colleague Jonathan Mayo ranked Sandoval 139th, while the Baseball America staff ranked Sandoval 392nd among draft prospects.

Callis and Mayo call him an athletic, projectable left-hander who sits in the 88-90 range with his fastball but touches 91 and 92 mph at times. Per their scouting report, Sandoval flashes an “absolute hammer of a curve,” but the pitch is inconsistent. BA notes that his arm action can get a bit long, leading to issues repeating his delivery and, therefore, with his control. However, those issues diminished in his senior year of high school, they add.

The Astros have a pair of tough-to-sign player remaining unsigned in their post-10th-round crop in the form of prep righty Luken Baker (Texas) and prep righty Cole Sands (Florida), but Callis feels that the $313K they have remaining before incurring draft pick forfeiture won’t be enough to entice either player to forgo his commitment to college (Twitter link). The max that either player could be offered is $413,660.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/5/15

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.

  • The Braves acquired left-hander Mitchell Lambson from the Astros, Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee reports (Twitter link).  Lambson was a 19th-round pick for Houston in the 2011 draft who has posted strong minor league numbers in five pro seasons: a 2.79 ERA, 9.9 K/9 and 4.34 K/BB rate over 242 relief innings, including his first taste of Triple-A ball this year.
  • The Cubs have signed righty Ben Rowen to a minor-league deal, the Iowa Cubs have announced. Rowen had previously been in the Orioles organization until opting out of his contract. Rowen had posted a 2.41 ERA with 1.4 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings with the Orioles’ top two minor league affiates. His strikeout rate (5.8 K/9) was a bit low, but he has a strong history of inducing ground balls. The 26-year-old came to the Orioles from the Dodgers as part of the two teams’ curious trade involving reliever Ryan Webb.
  • The Athletics have outrighted first baseman Nate Freiman to Triple-A Nashville, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. They had designated him for assignment on Thursday. The 28-year-old Freiman hit .218/.269/.448 in 93 plate appearances with the A’s in 2014 and has struggled greatly in 129 plate appearances with Nashville in 2015.
  • The Blue Jays have outrighted righty Todd Redmond to Triple-A Buffalo, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets. They had designated him for assignment earlier this week. Redmond has pitched a total of 16 innings for the Jays so far this year, and he’s been designated for assignment and then outrighted three separate times. The 30-year-old has a 4.25 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 171 1/3 career big-league innings in parts of four seasons with the Blue Jays and Reds.

AL West Notes: Wilhelmsen, Crane, Angels

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The Mariners officially demoted Tom Wilhelmsen to Triple-A prior to today’s game in the wake of the right-hander’s recent struggles.  Wilhelmsen has been a fixture in Seattle’s bullpen for the last five seasons and served as closer prior to Fernando Rodney’s acquisition, yet he had allowed nine runs over his last 6 2/3 innings of work (over seven games).  Wilhelmsen has a 4.68 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 2.55 K/BB over 25 IP this season, though a .413 BABIP may explain why is ERA is so much higher than his indicators (2.68 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA).  Here’s some more from around the AL West…

  • Astros owner Jim Crane tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart that GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff is “working hard” to find rotation help.  “If we can get the right move, I’m sure Jeff will pull the trigger.  He has the ability to do that if he wants to do it,” Crane said.  “It will depend on what kind of contract it is and how long it is and who it is and what we need, but I know it’s something a lot of teams are looking at right now.”
  • The conflict between Mike Scioscia’s coaching staff and Jerry Dipoto’s front office was “no clash of Ivy League nerds vs. old-school baseball men,” Grantland’s Jonah Keri writes.  Dipoto, assistant GM Scott Servais and pro scouting director Hal Morris were all long-time MLB veterans.  Keri suspects Servais could also soon leave the Angels given his issues with Scioscia and the coaches.  Keri’s piece outlines some of the disagreements between the Angels’ executives and coaches, including (as FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal initially reported earlier in the week) seemingly routine team matters as how scouting information was being presented to the players.
  • In other AL West news from earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported on some Angels/Brewers trade talks and speculation that Bud Black could be a favorite to be Anaheim’s new general manager.

Cafardo’s Latest: Revere, Kennedy, Hamels, Jays

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The Angels were first linked to Ben Revere in trade rumors in May but the rumors almost became a reality.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that the Phillies and Angels came close a few weeks ago on a trade that would’ve sent Revere to Anaheim for right-hander Trevor Gott.  The Phils thought the deal was done but the Halos “pulled out of the deal at the last minute and tried to redirect the Phillies toward a starting pitching prospect.”  Talks fell through after that.  Here’s some more from Cafardo’s weekly notes column, with a particular focus on news from Toronto…

  • Ian Kennedy has a 2.31 ERA over his last six starts and the Padres right-hander has begun to generate some trade interest in his services.  Kennedy had an ugly 7.15 ERA over his first eight starts and owns a 4.86 ERA for the season, though his peripherals (8.51 K/9, 3.04 K/BB rate, 3.74 xFIP, 3.70 SIERA) are are pretty solid, aside from a 22.1% homer rate that more than double his career average.  Kennedy is a free agent this winter and would be a natural trade chip for San Diego if the Friars decided to sell.
  • Cole Hamels has publicly said he’s willing to consider deals to any team but is reportedly unlikely to waive his no-trade clause if he’s dealt to the Astros or Blue Jays.  Cafardo wonders if Hamels would remain adamant against a move to Houston or Toronto, however, if those were the only deals on the table and his only avenues away from the rebuilding Phillies.
  • Attracting free agents north of the border has long been an issue for the Blue Jays, as Cafardo cites higher taxes, customs delays and the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface as factors that can sometimes make Toronto a tough sell.  (Josh Donaldson and Jose Reyes both praised their city, though Reyes admitted he isn’t a fan of the turf.)  The bigger problem for the Jays, however, is that they have barely contended since their last playoff appearance in 1993.  “It just seems GM Alex Anthopoulos has to go through corporate layers to OK big expenditures, slowing the process considerably,” Cafardo writes.  “Players always want to know that their ownership is doing all it can to produce a winner.”
  • Braves closer Jason Grilli is one of the Blue Jays’ targets as the team looks for bullpen help.  Grilli would cost less in both salary and trade chips than Jonathan Papelbon or Francisco Rodriguez, two closers who have also been connected to the Jays this summer.  Atlanta isn’t yet looking to move Grilli, however, as the team is still in the race.
  • Other have asked the Blue Jays about several players in trade talks, including young talent like Miguel Castro, Daniel Norris, Roberto Osuna, Kevin Pillar, Dalton Pompey, Aaron Sanchez and Devon Travis.
  • “Every indication is that” R.A. Dickey is in his last year with the Blue Jays, as the team will either use their $1MM buyout of Dickey’s $12MM club option for 2016 or Dickey may just retire.  The 40-year-old knuckleballer had a tough start today against the Tigers and now owns a 5.02 ERA over 107 2/3 innings this season.
  • Jeff Samardzija “may be the first starting pitcher moved ahead of the trading deadline” since “scouts are constantly at his games,” Cafardo writes.  The White Sox aren’t ready to start selling yet, but they’ll find a strong market for Samardzija’s services that includes the Royals, Astros and Tigers.  (Cafardo cited several more teams in the Samardzija market in his column last week.
  • “Nobody knows what the Red Sox are going to do because they don’t know what they’re going to do,” one NL executive said.  Boston has played modestly better as of late, winning 10 of its last 16 games, though the Sox are still just 38-45 on the season.  Koji Uehara is cited by the executive as one of “a few players teams would want” if the Red Sox decided to start selling.  The team is known to be looking for young pitching on the trade market.

Draft Signings: Thomas Eshelman, Bryan Hudson

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Let’s catch up on some recent draft signings, with slot values via Baseball America:

  • The Astros have locked up second-rounder Thomas Eshelman for a $1.1MM bonus that falls shy of the $1,325,700 slot value, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Callis calls the righty the “best strike-thrower in NCAA history” — he averaged an unthinkable 0.42 BB/9 over this entire college career, per Baseball America — and indeed much of his value lies in his impeccable control. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs had the highest grade on Eshelman, raning him 54th among draft-eligible players. Other evaluators placed him at or just out of the top 100. MLB.com explained that Eshelman’s fastball hovers in the 90 to 91 mph range, while his offspeed pitches are nothing particularly special.
  • Cubs third-rounder Bryan Hudson receives a well-over-slot $1.1MM bonus, per Callis (via Twitter). The slot value at 82nd overall was just $731K. He’s a tall, projectable righty who rated as high as 71st coming into the draft, with MLB.com giving that grade. Baseball America put him in the 101st slot, noting that Hudson features a good curve and has smooth mechanics for a hurler of his size.

Trade Market Notes: Zobrist, Hamels, Tulo, Orioles

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We’ve already heard that the Mets and Athletics have had discussions regarding the former’s interest in utility man par excellence Ben Zobrist. And New York GM Sandy Alderson has said that he is “prepared to overpay” for the right piece to boost the club’s sagging offense. In a post today, Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected those two stories, reporting that the Mets are specifically willing to offer a premium return for Zobrist. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in the above-linked piece regarding the Mets’ interest, it’s easy to see why that would be the case: he potentially offers a solution at second, third, and/or the corner outfield, all while delivering the type of on-base threat that Alderson prizes. As Sherman goes on to explain, however, in spite of New York’s apparent willingness to go past what it deems fair value for the veteran, Oakland has not made him available. With the team surging in the AL West, A’s GM Billy Beane “has tempered sell-off talks, at least for now,” per the report.

Here are some more recent trade deadline notes:

  • Despite recent public comments indicating that he’d consider a trade to any club, Cole Hamels of the Phillies has privately indicated to the team that he is not interested in going to the Blue Jays, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Hamels also appears unlikely to waive his no-trade clause for a move to the Astros, Heyman notes. But he would be amenable to being sent to the Red Sox “and possibly a few others,” per the report.
  • Even if the Rockies are otherwise willing to move franchise star Troy Tulowitzki, writes Heyman, his value is down so far that a rival GM says he’s not sure another team would take on the rest of his contract — even before considering giving up pieces in return. And a source tells Heyman that owner Dick Monfort is exceedingly unlikely to keep a significant piece of that deal in order to get more value from Tulo. Yet another general manager said that Tulowitzki has not exhibited the same “lower half explosiveness” that he did before undergoing hip surgery last year.
  • Heyman has items from much of the rest of the league, with a particular focus on possible sellers, in the column. It’s well worth a full read.
  • After entering the year with eleven free agents-to-be on the roster, the Orioles have pared that down to eight after designating Delmon Young, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com observes. The team still has little interest in moving any of those players in order to get some value back before they hit the market: as Kubatko puts it, “the Orioles are going for it again.” That makes deals involving lefty Wei-Yin Chen, slugger Chris Davis, or catcher Matt Wieters are highly unlikely, despite the fact that all are set to hit the open market. “[Chen] can help us win a championship and he’ll be here,” said manager Buck Showalter of his team’s best starter this season. “There aren’t many left-handed starters who are in the top 10 in ERA floating around and we couldn’t trade him for someone better.”
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