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Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta Win Cy Young Awards

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Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel and Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced tonight.

Keuchel placed in the top two on all 30 ballots (22 first-place votes, eight second-place), earning a total of 186 points. (Weighted seven points for first place, four for second, three for third, two for fourth and one for fifth.) David Price came in a reasonably close second place, landing 21 second place votes and eight first place votes (plus one third place) for a total of 143 points. Sonny Gray, the only other recipient of a second-place vote, finished third with 82 points. Rounding out the ballot were Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Wade Davis, Felix Hernandez, Collin McHugh, Corey Kluber, Marco Estrada, Andrew Miller, Shawn Tolleson, Carlos Carrasco and Dellin Betances, in that order. (Full voting breakdown here.)

The 27-year-old Keuchel was fighting for a rotation spot as recently as Spring Training 2014, but his remarkable transformation into a bona fide ace atop the Houston rotation was completed with a dominant follow-up to a breakout 2014 season. Keuchel led the AL with 232 innings (trailing only Clayton Kershaw’s 232 2/3 innings for the MLB lead) and worked to a pristine 2.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and an AL-best 61.7 percent ground-ball rate. While pitcher wins are no longer as significantly emphasized as they once were, Keuchel’s 20 victories likely still held some weight with many voters (as evidenced, perhaps, by teammate and 19-game winner McHugh receiving votes despite logging a 3.89 ERA).

In the National League, voting was even closer, as most would expect. Arrieta’s 169 points narrowly edged out Zack Greinke’s 147 points, with Clayton Kershaw coming in third with a total of 101. Rounding out the ballot, in order, were Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom, Mark Melancon and John Lackey. (Full voting breakdown.)

Arrieta delivered a strong first half of the season but ratcheted things up with an historic second half, yielding a breathtaking four earned runs in his final 88 1/3 innings. Arrieta recorded an 89-to-14 K/BB ratio over that dominant stretch and shrank his earned run average from 2.62 to 1.77 in the process. He also led the Senior Circuit with 22 wins, four complete games and three shutouts.

There was a split camp between Arrieta and Greinke, the latter of whom posted a 1.66 ERA — the lowest earned run average since Greg Maddux 20 years ago. Greinke recorded 19 wins and averaged 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings against just 1.6 walks per nine in 222 2/3 innings with the Dodgers this season and also enjoyed an otherworldly run of 45 2/3 scoreless innings over the middle portion of the season. Incredibly, Greinke allowed just 19 runs over his first 19 starts this season.

Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

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Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Astros shortstop Carlos Correa have been named Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues by the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Bryant won the award in unanimous fashion, beating out second-place finisher Matt Duffy of the Giants. Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang, Noah Syndergaard of the Mets and Justin Bour of the Marlins finished third through fifth, with each player garnering multiple points in the voting. The Dodgers’ Joc Pederson and Cardinals’ Stephen Piscotty each received a third-place vote, earning each one point.

Bryant, 23, entered the year with considerable hype after decimating Triple-A pitching in 2014. There was some outrage when it was announced that he’d begin the season in the minor leaguers, but he was quickly promoted to the Majors (uncoincidentally as soon as his free agency had been delayed by one year) and quickly established himself as one of the premier third basemen in the game. Bryant batted .275/.369/.488 with 26 home runs and 13 stolen bases this season while also delivering strong defense at third base and even contributing in the outfield.

The race in the American League was much closer, with Correa narrowly edging out fellow shortstop Francisco Lindor. Correa received 17 first-place votes and 13 second-place votes, whereas Lindor received 13 first-place votes and 14 second-place votes. Trailing the two were young Twins slugger Miguel Sano, Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna, A’s center fielder Billy Burns, Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario and Rangers center fielder Delino DeShields Jr.

Correa batted an impressive .279/.345/.512 with 22 homers and 14 steals. Wins above replacement measures liked Lindor better for the award due to his superior glove and on-base percentage, but Correa slugged 10 more homers and knocked in more runs, likely widening the gap in the eyes of many voters. Most pundits agreed that either would be a fine choice for the award given the exceptional seasons enjoyed by each.

Colby Rasmus Accepts Qualifying Offer

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NOV. 13: The Astros announced (via Twitter) that Rasmus has accepted the offer and will return to the club in 2016.

NOV. 12: Outfielder Colby Rasmus will become the first player ever to accept a qualifying offer, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that he’ll take the one-year, $15.8MM deal extended to him by the Astros.

Oct 12, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros left fielder <a rel=

Rasmus, 29, slashed a productive .238/.314/.475 over 485 plate appearances last year. He also swatted 25 home runs while playing solid defense all over the outfield. And Rasmus reversed his traditional platoon splits, hammering lefties to the tune of .252/.364/.471 (in 140 trips to the plate).

In some ways that represented a big year for Rasmus, especially when combined with a torrid (but short-lived) post-season run. In truth, though, it really only affirmed his standing. His on-base percentage did drop below .300 in an injury-plagued 2014, but his power numbers were good enough that he still put together the second of three consecutive seasons with better-than-league-average production.

Rasmus will presumably spend most of his time in left, flanking center fielder Carlos Gomez. Slick defender Jake Marisnick may take some plate appearances against opposing southpaws.

Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said recently that the team was hopeful that Rasmus would accept, and it appears he’ll get his wish. The club will neither gain nor lose any draft picks. Rasmus will be treated like any other free agent who has signed a deal, meaning that he cannot be traded without consent until June 15th of 2016. (Click here for more of the rules governing the qualifying offer.)

The $15.8MM sum is a lot on an annual basis, to be sure. But it’s hardly an earth-shattering sum in this day and age. And Houston will benefit from the fact that it need not commit to Rasmus beyond next season, allowing the club to re-assess after the year. Of course, some planning will be required: both he and Gomez will at that point be eligible for free agency, and the team has dealt away several significant prospects (Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana were sent in the Gomez trade) who might have been ready to step in.

Over the three prior years that the qualifying offer system was in place, no player ever took the deal. As we’ve often discussed here at MLBTR, it rarely makes sense for a free agent to do so, since in most cases preserving the possibility of a multi-year deal is worth the risk — especially given that many players will still end up with a chance at a similar one-year deal as a fallback.

But as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained on Tuesday in his outlook piece for the Astros, Rasmus seemed an unusually likely candidate to accept the one-year offer. While he’s still young, the Excel Sports Management client faced a competitive market situation and was not quite a full-time player last year. After failing to find a home with the Cardinals and Blue Jays, he seemed to fit in well in Houston. And it doesn’t hurt that he’ll have an opportunity to re-enter the market next year. While there are still some quality outfielders among the crop of expected 2016-17 free agents, it’s not as deep a class as the current one.

Looking elsewhere in the free agent market, players such as Denard Span and Gerardo Parra figure to benefit from today’s decision. While they are entirely different types of players, both are left-handed hitters who move up a peg in the outfield market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL West Notes: Kotsay, A’s, Rangers, Astros, Dunn, Gutierrez

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The Athletics announced yesterday that former outfielder Mark Kotsay, who most recently served as the Padres’ hitting coach, has been hired as the new bench coach in Oakland. (The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser first reported that Kotsay would be hired.) “I think every bench coach is an extension of the manager, and the manager sets the tone,” said Kotsay of the hiring (via MLB.com’s Jane Lee). “From my standpoint as a bench coach, hopefully I can share my experiences as a player and get across to them the importance of buying in and how special teams can be when the group really believes in that.” Kotsay spoke fondly of the organization, which is no surprise considering the fact that he spent four of his prime-aged seasons with the A’s, reaching the postseason in 2006. Kotsay batted .282/.336/.410 in his four years with the A’s and .276/.332/.404 across parts of 17 Major League seasons.

Some more notes from the AL West…

  • While the Athletics know there is uncertainty around the health of Coco Crisp’s neck, GM David Forst told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart that he still doesn’t expect to seek much in the way of outfield help this winter. Forst spoke highly of Josh Reddick, Billy Burns, Mark Canha and Jake Smolinski as alternative options that are under club control for the 2016 season. Rather, Forst and the A’s front office are trying to determine the best way to add a starting pitcher to the mix in 2016, be it through trade or via free agency. Forst told McTaggart that he laid some groundwork with a number of other clubs and with some agents, though it’s too early to tell whether any of those talks will ultimately lead to a transaction.
  • The Rangers are in the market for a starting pitcher, a right-handed bat and a bullpen arm, McTaggart writes in a second column, and GM Jon Daniels said that the club’s current focus is more on trades than on free agency. McTaggart also spoke to Daniels about the possibility of pursuing a catcher, though Daniels didn’t make it sound like a priority, expressing confidence that Robinson Chirinos is capable of catching 110+ games in 2016 if the Rangers head into the season with him as their starter. The 31-year-old Chirinos very quietly delivered a respectable .232/.325/.438 batting line in 273 plate appearances this past season.
  • Marlins southpaw Mike Dunn would be a reasonable trade option in the Astros’ search for left-handed relief help, writes the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich. Dunn will earn $3.45MM in 2016 — his final year of club control before free agency. Dunn’s average of 95 mph on his fastball would fit GM Jeff Luhnow’s previously stated goal of adding velocity to his bullpen, and Dunn has shown the ability to retire both left- and right-handed batters over the years. Dunn does come with some control problems, and the Marlins have been reluctant to trade him in the past. Still, he does make sense as a lefty relief trade target for clubs seeking such commodities. Luhnow wouldn’t comment on Dunn when asked by Drellich, stating only that he’s checked in with all teams this offseason.
  • In a second column, Drellich examines the Astros’ front-office structure in the wake of David Stearns’ departure. Stearns, who was hired as the Brewers’ GM, handled most of the club’s arbitration negotiations and was also in touch with agents regarding contract negotiations. In his absence, director of pro scouting Kevin Goldstein has stepped up to begin talking with some agents regarding free agency, while some of the arbitration duties are falling to director of baseball ops Brandon Taubman, director of business development Samir Mayur and player development assistant Armando Velasco, per Drellich.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto called the decision to re-sign Franklin Gutierrez a “no-brainer,” writes MLB.com’s Cash Kruth. “We love his makeup, we love what he brings to our clubhouse, and just generally to the balance of the team,” said Dipoto of Gutierrez. Dipoto says that Gutierrez will likely platoon in left field with Seth Smith next season, which should create a formidable offensive duo. Smith batted .255/.343/.458 against righties in 2015 and has a lifetime .274/.356/.478 line when holding the platoon advantage. Gutierrez checked in at .317/.357/.615 against southpaws last season and has a career .291/.346/.491 line against them.

Bullpen Notes: Tigers, Mariners, Astros/Rays, Sipp, Soria

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The Tigers are known to be casting a wide net in their search for relievers, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that their targets include Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley and Tommy Hunter in addition to previously reported links to Darren O’Day and Joakim Soria. As Crasnick further notes, Hunter was a teammate of GM Al Avila’s son (and former Detroit backstop) Alex Avila in college, giving Hunter a bit of an in with the organization. The Tigers would like to add a pair of bullpen arms, and Avila said yesterday that he’s not concerned with pitcher handedness but instead just focused on general upgrades (via the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech, on Twitter).

A few more notes on the developing free-agent and trade markets for bullpen upgrades…

  • The Mariners already made a substantial boost to their bullpen today by adding Joaquin Benoit in a trade with the Padres, but GM Jerry Dipoto isn’t content with the group just yet. Via Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (Twitter link), Dipoto says the Mariners aren’t done bolstering their bullpen. For the time being, Dipoto isn’t committing to a role for Benoit (as noted by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, also on Twitter), perhaps indicating that the Mariners are open to adding relief arms of a higher caliber (though that’s just my own speculation).
  • Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros and Rays had some discussions about Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger at the GM Meetings. Both excellent Rays relievers were said to be drawing wide interest, so it’s not a surprise to see Houston — a team that has been oft-connected to bullpen help dating back to July — checking in with Tampa Bay. Drellich also hears that Tony Sipp’s market is picking up, and the southpaw has interest not only from the Astros but from other teams within the AL West.
  • The Royals, too, have some interest in Sipp, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Though Kansas City has a dominant bullpen, it could be in the need of some left-handed help. Franklin Morales, who was quietly excellent in 2015, is a free agent, and Danny Duffy could rejoin the rotation next season. Tim Collins will be back from Tommy John surgery, but the team can’t bank on a full return to form for the undersized southpaw. KC will also be without right-handers Greg Holland (TJ surgery) and Madson (free agent) in 2016, and Sipp has a track record of retiring both right-handers and left-handers alike.
  • SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo adds a team to the expanding market for Joakim Soria, tweeting that the Angels also have some interest in the right-hander. Given the other needs around the roster for the Halos, who have a deep supply of bullpen arms as it is, Soria would seem to be more of a luxury than an answer to a direct need.
  • Of course, Aroldis Chapman is the top name on the trade market for relief help right now, and he’s already had his name surface in rumors today. Peter Gammons reported earlier this morning that he spoke to four people who expect Chapman to be moved by the end of the weekend, and reports since that time have pegged the Red Sox as an interested party. We’re monitoring all of the latest Chapman rumors in a separate post.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Astros, Aybar, Martin, Napoli, Jennings

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The Mariners have continued to express interest in catcher Chris Iannetta, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports on Twitter. Iannetta, 32, hit the open market after four years with the Angels — which was, of course, also the most recent stop of new Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. The M’s have also reached out to Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the team weights its options for veteran additions behind the dish, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets.

Here’s more from the AL West:

  • The Astros could aim to achieve “balance” with their roster moves, Evan Drellich of The Houston Chronicle writes. Adding some high-octane arms to the pen and some contact bats to the lineup might prove beneficial, though GM Jeff Luhnow notes that his primary concern is with achieving production through whatever means necessary (and, presumably, at a good value).
  • In other news, also via Drellich, Luhnow says that he’s not inclined to move catcher Jason Castro and center fielder Carlos Gomez, even though both players are a year away from free agency.  “I think Gomez right now is our center fielder and Castro’s our catcher and those guys are hard to replace,” Luhnow said. “We could be looking at a situation next year where either or both of those are in the qualifying offer camp as well, so. If you trade ’em, you’re potentially giving up opportunity to keep them on a one-year deal after next year. Or a draft pick if they choose to sign elsewhere. That’s a valuable situation. But most importantly for us, I think Gomez and Castro are key parts of our team next year.”
  • Similarly, the Angels are not terribly concerned with the contract status of shortstop Erick Aybar, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. The Halos have several other priorities, and aren’t currently focused either on working out a new contract with the 31-year-old or finding his replacement.
  • The Rangers will tender a contract to outfielder Leonys Martin, GM Jon Daniels made clear to the media today. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports, Daniels called that outcome “100%” to occur. There had been at least some questions about the 27-year-old’s status after a tough season, but it seems Texas still sees plenty of value. MLBTR projects Martin to earn $1.6MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility, which is hardly an overwhelming number.
  • While the free agent market has had its draws for the Rangers in recent years, the club has also struck several major trades and is focused on talks with other teams this winter, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports. “I think there’s a little bit of confidence going into the offseason as far as [having] an experienced core, and even the young guys now have experience on a big stage,” Daniels told McTaggart. “You feel you can try to add a couple of pieces and [not] need to reinvent the wheel and totally change over the club. You don’t want to get complacent either, but there’s a confidence, especially [considering] where we were a year ago, and we’ve gotten some real positive answers [for] some of our injured guys.”
  • The Rangers do, however, have interest in bringing back right-handed slugger Mike Napoli, Daniels added. If that happened, the club would look for him to work out in left field during camp to see if he could provide an option there alongside Josh Hamilton (who, it should be noted, just underwent another minor knee surgery).
  • The Rangers have expressed interest in bringing former Marlins GM Dan Jennings into their front office, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported last week on Twitter. Jennings has reportedly drawn fairly wide interest since he was cut loose after a long run in Miami.

Free Agent Notes: Breslow, Park, D’Backs, Freese, Utley, Hill, Astros, Marlins

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Former Red Sox southpaw Craig Breslow is planning to ask prospective future employers for a chance to start, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. The 35-year-old had functioned exclusively as a reliever in his ten-year MLB career until late last season. In two September starts for Boston, Breslow allowed just two earned runs in a combined 9 1/3 innings of work. Breslow ended the season with a 4.15 ERA over 65 total innings, with 6.4 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. It’s not implausible to imagine that a club might give the veteran a chance to work as a starter in the spring, perhaps expecting that he could become a swingman option, though securing a rotation job will certainly be a tall order. In Breslow’s favor, he’s posted very minimal platoon splits over his career, allowing a .240/.308/.378 career batting line to lefties and a .238/.326/.376 slash to opposing right-handers.

Here are some more free agent notes from the ongoing GM Meetings:

  • At least two other teams bid north of $11MM in the posting of Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Park, who saw his negotiation rights go to the Twins for $12.85MM, drew praise from a pair of clubs that pursued him when asked by Rosenthal, because his batted-ball exit velocity rivaled that of the top Major Leaguers. However, some clubs are concerned with his long swing and penchant for strikeouts. (While not strictly a free agent, Park was available to all clubs during the offseason period, so he is a part of MLBTR’s top fifty free agent list.)
  • The Diamondbacks are looking to add two starters this winter, per Rosenthal. The club prefers not to commit more than $15MM to $18MM annually on a free agent addition, which obviously might not be enough to land one of the four best arms available. But that is probably sufficient to make Arizona competitive on any other starters, depending on what length of the commit the team can offer. And the D’Backs also seem prepared to explore the trade market for arms, with Rosenthal noting that other teams have keen interest in Arizona’s surplus of controllable outfilders.
  • Rosenthal added a few other notes of interest on several pending free agents, in both the above-linked piece and his notes column from this morning. The Angels have interest in re-signing David Freese at a lower annual rate than that of the $15.8MM qualifying offer they declined to make, writes Rosenthal. Likewise, the Dodgers are considering bringing back Chase Utley to provide a southpaw-swinging option at second and third base, per Rosenthal, after previously declining his option.
  • Lefty Rich Hill is in surprisingly high demand and looks to be in line for a Major League deal this winter, says Rosenthal. He has apparently provided a model that the aforementioned Breslow hopes to follow in his own free agency, as Bradford writes.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow declined to rule out the possibility that his club could pursue a top-end free agent arm, as Rosenthal further reports. “I think so,” Luhnow said when asked whether that was plausible. “It would have to be the right type of deal for us, but yeah, we’re not ruling anything out at this point.” As of right now, Houston is not pursuing free agent infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist, Evan Drellich of The Houston Chronicle writes. (That crosses at least one team off of a lengthy list.)
  • The Marlins have at least some degree of interest in free agent starters Scott Kazmir, Colby Lewis, and Tim Lincecum, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. All three enter the winter in rather different situations and carrying quite different market expectations, of course, but Miami seems to be taking a flexible approach to building out its rotation.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/10/15

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There’s plenty of trade speculation in the air at the GM Meetings, though we probably won’t see a significant uptick in major moves just yet. There are still some notable transactions happening around the league, however. Here’s today’s rundown of minor moves…

  • The Astros announced (on Twitter) that they’ve outrighted Sam Deduno off the 40-man roster. The right-hander can opt for free agency based on his service time, which seems to be the likeliest outcome. The 32-year-old Deduno struggled to a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings this year in a season that was cut short by a back strain. Deduno logged a more respectable 4.26 ERA in 279 innings across parts of three seasons with the Twins from 2012-14, though control has never been his strong suit.
  • Infielder Ryan Jackson was outrighted by the Angels yesterday and elected free agency as well, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweeted. The 27-year-old has limited experience in the Majors, with just two hits in 39 plate appearances between the Cardinals and Halos. However, Jackson has had better success at the Triple-A level and can play shortstop, second base and third base, so he’ll probably latch on with a club in need of infield depth.
  • Yesterday, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy published another round-up of minor league signings from around the league, with some of the notable moves including former first-round pick Chris Marrero re-signing with the Red Sox on a minor league deal, a trio of Reds electing free agency (Sam LeCure, Brennan Boesch, Collin Balester) and a series of Brewers moves (re-signing Hiram Burgos, Jaye Chapman and Ben Guez, plus lefty Cesar Jimenez electing free agency).

Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The future is now for the Astros, as they’ll be looking to continue their winning ways and return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jed Lowrie, IF: $15MM through 2017 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2018)
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $12.5MM through 2017
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: $9MM through 2016
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $8MM through 2017 (plus club options for 2018-19)
  • Scott Feldman, SP: $8MM through 2016
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $7MM through 2016 (includes $500K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2017)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $6.5MM through 2018 (includes $500K buyout of $2.5MM club option for 2019; club also has options for 2020-21)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Jeff Luhnow’s extensive (and sometimes controversial) rebuild of the Astros began to pay dividends a bit earlier than expected, as most pundits figured the young club was still a year or two away when the 2015 season began.  For Houston fans suffering through years of losing baseball, however, the successes of 2015 couldn’t have come soon enough.  The Astros led the AL West for much of the season, and while a September swoon cost them the division, they still beat the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game and took the Royals to the full five games in their ALDS matchup.

The Astros weren’t afraid to spend some money last winter in order to upgrade their bullpen, lineup and rotation, nor did they shy away from dealing notable prospects like Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana in their big midseason deal for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers.  Now that they’ve established themselves as a playoff threat, the next step will be to see how much more owner Jim Crane is willing to boost the payroll and whether or not Luhnow will sacrifice any more of his vast prospect capital in order to enhance the Major League roster.

Just under $43MM is committed to seven players on the 2016 Astros, and another $31MM is projected to go to nine arbitration-eligible players (though it’s no guarantee all will be tendered, as I’ll explore later).  That adds up to $74MM for 16 players, which is already more than the $72.64MM the Astros spent on their last Opening Day roster.  The payroll has gradually risen from a measly $26MM in 2013 to roughly $50.5MM in 2014 to last year’s total, so it seems like a boost into the $95-$100MM range could be coming this winter.  Crane has repeatedly stated that Luhnow will have more funding available as the team’s development warrants, so if the team is contending again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros pass the $100MM threshold if it means securing a player to help them make a deeper postseason run.

With so much young talent both on the Major League roster and developing down on the farm, it stands to reason that the Astros won’t be a one-year wonder.  For starters, Houston’s lineup will be improved simply by getting an entire year of rookie sensation Carlos Correa and healthy full seasons from Gomez and George Springer.  Gomez is entering the last year of his contract, so he’ll be lined up for a major free agent deal next winter if he gets back to his past All-Star form.

Correa, Springer, Gomez and Jose Altuve form the core of Houston’s lineup, though the Astros have several questions to be answered elsewhere around the diamond.  For one, those four are all right-handed hitters, so the Astros have a distinct need to add lineup balance in the form of at least one notable left-handed bat.  Several regulars are arbitration-eligible, and the team could consider not tendering contracts to some familiar names in order to free some money for bigger upgrades.

Third baseman Luis Valbuena, first baseman Chris Carter and DH Evan Gattis are all cut from the same cloth as low-average, low-OBP sluggers who provided pop in the form of a combined 76 homers.  While their overall arbitration price of $14.8MM isn’t exorbitant, three players with the same limited skill set could be seen as a redundancy for a contending team.  Valbuena is the most likely to stay, as he’s currently the most notable left-handed bat on the roster and can be platooned with Jed Lowrie.  Valbuena is also a free agent after 2016, with prospect Colin Moran on track to get at least a share of the job by 2017.

Though Carter and Gattis are hard to replace from a power standpoint, it wouldn’t be too hard for Houston to find players to top their combined 0.3 fWAR in 2015.  The Astros will pursue trades for both before the tendering deadline, and my guess is that if it came down to a non-tender decision, they’d keep the longer-tenured Carter and let Gattis go.  Even if Houston tenders one or both, however, I’d suspect both would still be shopped during the rest of the offseason.  You could even make a case that the ’Stros could non-tender both sluggers in order to really shake things up, but that’s an unlikely move given how Carter boosted his trade value with a late surge in September and through the playoffs.

If Carter, Gattis or both are gone, who takes over at first or DH?  Prospect A.J. Reed dominated high-A and Double-A pitching last season and will compete for a roster spot in Spring Training, though it might be too early to count on him since he’s yet to play a game at the Triple-A level.  You’ll likely see him hit the bigs sometime in 2016, however.  The Astros won’t yet give up on former top prospect Jon Singleton due to his young age (24) and long-term contract, though Singleton has done little in 420 career PA to prove that he’s even worthy of a roster spot on a contending team, let alone regular playing time. Former 33rd-rounder Tyler White is another option after his monster season split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The non-tender question can also be asked about the catcher’s job, though my guess is that the Astros stick with the Jason Castro/Hank Conger tandem.  The team loves Castro’s defense, relationship with the pitching staff and clubhouse leadership role, while Conger also had good pitch-framing numbers and hit .229/.311/.448 with 11 homers over 229 PA.  Houston has been cited as a possible destination for Matt Wieters, who is an upgrade on paper.  Given the question marks about his injury history and the lack of any other distinct better options on the open market, the Astros might feel more comfortable to keep their familiar catching platoon and spend elsewhere.

Left field is the only clear hole in the lineup as Colby Rasmus will hit free agency after nicely rebuilding his value with a solid regular season and a Ruthian postseason.  The Astros have young options to play left field next season, as a Preston Tucker/Jake Marisnick platoon is probably the top alternative if Rasmus or another everyday regular can’t be obtained.  This said, it wouldn’t be a shock if Rasmus re-signed since he enjoyed his time with the club and at least sounds open to returning.  (Not to mention that Rasmus is a left-handed hitter.)

If he still intends to retire within a few seasons, Rasmus has a case for becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  Rasmus could take the one-year, $15.8MM deal to remain in a familiar spot for another season, as while he’d obviously make far more money in a multi-year contract, he might not want to risk being in another uncomfortable clubhouse situation for what could be the final few years of his career.  (Jeff Todd and Steve Adams recently raised this point on the MLBTR Podcast.)  Houston seems comfortable with the idea of Rasmus accepting.  Retaining a short-term established player, after all, fits with the Astros’ long-term outfield plans with prospects Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher all on the horizon, as well as Tucker and Marisnick in the fold right now.  It’s probably still likely that Rasmus rejects the QO, but he at least has a few more layers to his decision than most.

Luhnow faces an interesting juggling act in adding players to help his team win now, yet also still maintaining and relying on the youth movement that the Astros worked so hard to build.  Top-tier free agents like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon would more than fill the club’s need in left field, though that would represent one less spot for Cameron and company in a few years’ time.  (Center field could well be open if Gomez leaves, though Springer is surely ticketed as a long-term piece.)  Of the top names, Gordon may be the best fit for Houston given that he’s a left-handed hitter, and also because the analytically-minded Astros are the sort of team that would particularly appreciate how Gordon can contribute in all facets of the game.

The same “now vs. the future” debate could be had about first base.  With Reed’s big bat looming, do the Astros need a big upgrade like Chris Davis or could they acquire a short-term veteran bat like Justin Morneau to platoon with Carter/Gattis until Reed arrives?  Davis checks a lot of boxes as an ideal signing for the Astros — he’s a Texas native, a left-handed hitter and brings even more power than Carter or Gattis while providing a much better all-around game.  Davis can contribute from day one while Reed may need some time to acclimate to Major League pitching.  That said, signing Davis would block Reed for the first few years of his career, and making Reed a full-time DH so early in his career probably isn’t something the Astros want.

Another concern is Davis’ price tag, which could be in the six-year/$144MM range and thus would easily surpass Carlos Lee’s six-year, $100MM deal from 2006 as the biggest contract in Astros history.  Payroll boost notwithstanding, I don’t see Houston splurging on two nine-figure contracts this offseason, so they’d have to choose whether they want to make a big impact (if any) on the pitching or offense front.

Speaking of pitching, the rotation projects as Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Scott Feldman, Lance McCullers and Fiers, with young arms like Vincent Velasquez, Dan Straily, Michael Feliz and Brett Oberholtzer available as depth (not to mention Mark Appel down in Triple-A).  Keuchel stepped forward as an ace and Cy Young Award contender in 2015, and his contract extension talks will be one of the club’s underlying subplots.  Expect to hear more about this topic in February and March when teams generally turn from offseason additions to extension business.  McHugh has now delivered consecutive seasons of 3+fWAR pitching, Feldman is a reliable veteran innings-eater when healthy and McCullers and Fiers have already showed the ability to dominate MLB hitters in their brief careers.

Plenty of teams would be satisfied with this pitching situation as it stands, though the Astros are thought to be in the market for a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Keuchel.  Remember, Houston pursued James Shields last winter even before their breakthrough season, and pursued the likes of Cole Hamels and Tyson Ross at the trade deadline.  While the Astros ended up with a controllable arm in Fiers and a bigger name hurler in Scott Kazmir, their next step is to land a pitcher who is both an ace and will be in Houston for several years.

Kazmir himself has stated he’d like to be that ace, though his middling results as an Astro both diminished his market value and perhaps hurt his chances of a return.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros check in on any of the top free agent pitchers, with David Price and Johnny Cueto perhaps getting the most focus since Houston already expressed in both starters last summer.  Also, neither pitcher has a qualifying offer draft pick attached to their services, though the Astros might not mind surrendering a first-rounder for the right signing given how many good prospects are already on board.  Price’s $200MM+ price tag may be too much to afford, though I could definitely see Houston getting involved with Cueto in the $115MM-$120MM range.

If a major arm is added to the rotation, Feldman stands out as a possible trade chip.  The right-hander was shut down with a strained throwing shoulder in September, so obviously he’d have to prove he’s back to normal in Spring Training.  Feldman brings a decent track record on a one-year, $8MM deal and could be very attractive to teams looking for a last-minute rotation boost.

This leaves the bullpen, which will be another major target area for the second straight offseason.  The Astros relief corps had the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the game last season, though it faded badly down the stretch with a league-worst 5.63 ERA in September and October (and that doesn’t count the infamous meltdown in Game 4 of the ALDS).  Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Josh Fields will return, while Houston has already declined their $3.5MM option on veteran righty Chad Qualls, whose peripherals suggest he pitched much better than his 4.38 ERA would indicate.

Southpaws Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are all free agents, so the Astros will certainly have to address a dearth of lefty relief.  Signing one of the winter’s top left-handed bullpen arms (Antonio Bastardo or Sipp himself) would add another significant contract to the Houston bullpen that already has over $12MM invested in 2016 salaries for Gregerson and Neshek.

The biggest relief investment could come in the form of a major closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, both of whom were heavily targeted by Houston at the deadline.  The Reds and Padres are known to be asking for a large return for either closer, yet Houston is one of the few teams with the prospect depth to afford surrendering a notable minor leaguer or two for a reliever.  A star closer would make the Astros’ already solid bullpen even deeper, and with the rotation ideally providing more stable innings, the relievers are more likely to be sharp late in the season.

As noted earlier, Luhnow was aggressively seeking out top talent last winter before the Astros had proven they could put a winner on the field.  With a postseason berth now giving the franchise extra credibility with free agents, Luhnow could be one of the offseason’s busiest general managers given the plethora of options he has to improve the team.

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