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Draft Links: Best Remaining, Matuella, Day One Analysis

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Last night, we watched as the first two rounds of this year’s Rule 4 draft hit the books. We tracked the first 42 picks (here and here), but of course another 33 choices were made after that. You can find the complete results of the first day at MLB.com.

Here are some links to check out as we look back at yesterday and look forward to the rest of the draft:

  • Baseball America lists the best players still available, which includes names like high school righties Donny Everett and Dakota Chalmers as well as former Astros pick Jacob Nix.
  • The most intriguing player still on the board, perhaps, is Duke starter Michael Matuella, who was at one point regarded as a possible 1-1 selection but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and has dealt with other injury issues. It has to be considered at least possible at this point that he’ll return to college for his senior year; indeed, he acknowledged as much recently, as Laura Keeley of the Charlotte Observer reported. “That’s definitely an option I’m evaluating,” said Matuella. “I’m hoping a good opportunity presents itself. I really haven’t come up with a certain [draft round] cutoff. I’ll evaluate it case by case and see if there’s a good opportunity for me.” Of course, it would not be surprising to see a team with a large bonus pool take a shot on him today.
  • Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier says that the club has been locked in on first overall pick Dansby Swanson for some time, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America writes in breaking down the first day of the draft. “This is the player we wanted,” said Ladnier. “We wanted him for a while.”
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that Houston saw second overall pick Alex Bregman (LSU) as a “no-brainer” of a selection, noting that the club believes Bregman is plenty capable of sticking at short. The team’s top baseball man noted that he’s not worried about the possibility of a future infield logjam. “The good thing about having guys at the premium positions is … their fall-back is to play another position,” said Luhnow.
  • It goes without saying, really, that it’s too early to evaluate the results of day one, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com compares the Astros’ haul to their 2012 draft in terms of the volume of premium talent. Houston made plenty of noise yesterday — as might have been expected given its league-high bonus pool — in adding highly-regarded high school outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron to go with Bregman. Heyman also notes that the Dodgers seemingly achieved good value in nabbing righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th and 35th selections.
  • Jim Callis of MLB.com pegs the Blue Jays’ selection of Missouri State righty Jon Harris (29th overall) and the Rockies’ choice of high school hurler Mike Nikorak (at 27) as two of the best three picks, joining Cameron. The biggest suprise, per Callis, was the Marlins’ decision to grab young first baseman Josh Naylor in the 12th slot.
  • As a reminder, MLBTR’s draft primer contains links to many essential draft materials.

Minor Moves: Alex White

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Here are the minor moves from the day:

  • The Astros have released righty Alex White, a former first-round pick (15th overall) of the Indians, according to Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee (via Twitter). Once a consensus top-100 prospect, the now-26-year-old was a significant part of the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland back in 2011. After moving swiftly through the minors with outstanding results in his first two seasons as a pro, White threw 149 1/3 innings of 6.03 ERA ball at the major league level over 2011-12. He has been unable to regain his prior trajectory, struggling in particular with heightened walk tallies.

Final Draft Notes: D’Backs, Aiken, Astros

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With the final countdown on, here are a few last-minute draft rumors making the rounds. There remains little clarity — except, perhaps, at the very top.

  • Late updates to mock drafts show a clear consensus that the Diamondbacks will take Vandy shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall. Check them out if you’re interested in final prognostications: MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs. It is still possible that Arizona is holding negotiations with a few other players of interest, as multiple reports suggest, to keep open the possibility of freeing additional cash for later selections.
  • Last year’s first overall choice, Brady Aiken, has obviously seen a major value drop but still has ample talent. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that Aiken has interest from the Cubs, who are unlikely to reach for him with their first pick, as well as the Rays (who choose 13th overall) and Dodgers (picking 24th).
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that his team intends to spend all of its $17MM+ draft pool money, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Houston has the most cash to spend in large part due to its failure to sign Aiken, of course, which left the club with both the second and fifth overall selections.
  • The time for speculation is over now anyway, of course … the draft is about to start!

Astros Designate Matt Dominguez For Assignment

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The Astros announced that they have designated third baseman Matt Dominguez for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for top prospect Carlos Correa, whose promotion is now official.

It’s been a swift fall for Dominguez, who just one year ago was rumored to have been offered an extension worth roughly $14.5MM over five years (plus two option years for the Astros). He’s spent the entire season in Triple-A so far after serving as Houston’s regular third baseman for all of 2013-14 and much of the 2012 season as well.

Dominguez’s best season came in 2013 when he batted .241/.286/.403 with 21 homers in 152 games. Despite the lackluster OBP, Dominguez rated out well in terms of Defensive Runs Saved, leading to a 2.2 rWAR season. (Fangraphs’ version of WAR, which uses UZR in its equation, rated him at just shy of one WAR.) Dominguez’s glove has long drawn positive reviews from scouts, and he clearly has some power in his bat, as evidenced by the .168 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) mark that he posted from 2012-13.

Dominguez hit 16 home runs last year, but he saw his walk rate dip even further while his strikeout rate climbed to almost 21 percent. The resulting .215/.256/.330 batting line was enough that the Astros saw fit to acquire Luis Valbuena and sign Jed Lowrie to serve as upgrades on the left side of the infield. So far in Triple, Dominguez is batting .251/.289/.371.

Despite the struggles, Dominguez is still just 25 years of age. The former first-round pick won’t turn 26 until late August, and if a light were to turn on with another club, Dominguez could be controlled through at least the 2018 season. In fact, that number will soon jump to 2019. Dominguez entered the year with two years, 62 days of service, meaning he’d have needed 110 days of service this year to reach the three-year mark. However, there are just 119 days of the regular season remaining, so it seems unlikely that he’ll end up reaching that mark.

Because of his youth, big league track record, remaining remaining minor league options and upside, I’d personally be surprised to see Dominguez clear waivers. More likely, it seems that the Astros may try to trade him to a team in need of some help at the hot corner. The Giants have had some struggles at third base this season, as have the Tigers, White Sox and Brewers. The Indians just demoted Lonnie Chisenhall to Triple-A, though they may prefer to give Giovanny Urshela a tryout before moving on to other options.

Speculating a bit further, the Angels were said to be seeking a controllable young third baseman this winter, and while they acquired Kyle Kubitza from the Braves to give them an option, it’s at least possible that Dominguez intrigues them. And, in last year’s leak of trade notes from the Astros, the Marlins were said to have expressed interest in a trade for Dominguez, though Miami does have Martin Prado at the position now.

Astros To Promote Vincent Velasquez

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The Astros will promote right-handed pitching prospect Vincent Velasquez today, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He will start Wednesday’s game against the White Sox, according to McTaggart.

Vincent Velasquez

Velasquez entered the season ranked No. 56 on the Top 100 prospect list of ESPN’s Keith Law. He currently ranks 74th on MLB.com’s list, and he also ranked 75th according to both Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and to Baseball Prospectus prior to Opening Day. Suffice it to say, the 2010 second-round pick is regarded as one of the most promising young arms in all of baseball.

Law says that Velasquez has the aresenal of No. 2 starter, including a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a slider that sits 82-84 mph but still needs work, as it tends to flatten out. The consensus on Velasquez is that he may rank higher on all of these lists with a better track record of health. He missed the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery and had a pair of non-arm-related injuries in 2014 that limited him to 63 2/3 innings. McDaniel adds that his arm troubles date back even to his high school days, where he had a stress fracture in his elbow and a ligament strain during his junior year. His 2015 season didn’t begin until May 8, but in five starts at the Double-A, Velasquez has worked to a 1.37 ERA with 37 strikeouts against nine walks in 26 1/3 innings.

For the Astros, Velasquez will be the second highly touted young arm to join their rotation in the past month or so. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., a 2012 first-rounder and Velasquez’s Double-A teammate as recently as four weeks ago, has made a nearly seamless transition to the Majors by tossing 24 innings of 1.88 ERA ball.

The need for reinforcements in Houston’s rotation is palpable. Despite the brilliant season of ace Dallas Keuchel (1.85 ERA in a league-leading 87 2/3 innings) and that excellent effort from McCullers, the Astros have a collective 4.14 ERA from their rotation, which ranks 17th in the Majors. Collin McHugh has yet to rediscover his 2014 breakout form, Scott Feldman had an ERA of 4.80 before going down for about six weeks with knee surgery, and Roberto Hernandez has a 5.18 ERA to show for his 66 innings of work. Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, Brad Peacock and Asher Wojciechowski have all made starts as well but have produced a mix of ineffective performances and injuries to this point.

McTaggart writes that Velasquez will be taking Hernandez’s spot in the rotation, so it would seem that the 23-year-old Velasquez (he turned 23 yesterday) has a chance to nail down a permanent rotation spot with an impressive performance. Presently, he’ll join Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers and Oberholtzer in the rotation, though Feldman will be back in about five weeks and presumably step back into the rotation.

Astros Promote Carlos Correa

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The Astros have promoted top prospect Carlos Correa, according to a team press release.  Correa will join the team tomorrow in Chicago for the start of a three-game series against the White Sox.  Righty Jake Buchanan is being optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move, and another move is coming tomorrow to open up a 40-man roster spot.

“Carlos has performed extremely well at every level of our minor league system,” Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said in the release. “We feel he has earned this promotion and look forward to him joining our ballclub. Since he is just 20 years old, we do not have unrealistic expectations of Carlos. However, his performance on the field and his maturity indicate that he is ready to contribute on the Major League level.”

"FebCorrea was the first overall pick of the 2012 draft, a slightly controversial pick at the time given that Byron Buxton and Mark Appel were generally considered to be better picks.  Houston took Correa in part due to signability reasons, as he inked a below-slot contract and freed up more money for the Astros to spend on other prospects later in the draft.  In four pro seasons, however, Correa has made the Astros’ strategy look doubly wise, as he has hit .313/.392/.491 with 28 homers and 54 steals (out of 70 chances) over 1256 minor league plate appearances.  Preseason prospect lists saw the 6’4″, 190-pounder ranked as the third-best prospect in the sport by MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law, while Baseball America ranked him fourth.

The 2015 Baseball America Prospect Handbook describes Correa as “a plus hitter with plus raw power” who 30-homer potential in the big leagues, though he has yet to fully develop enough loft in his swing to fully unleash that pop.  One rival evaluator cited by BA compared Correa’s opposite-field hitting ability to that of Albert Pujols, though with less power.  Defensively, Correa was praised for almost everything (only his ability to turn double plays was considered average), particularly his “double-plus” throwing arm.  Off the field, Correa’s “makeup is off the charts, with a natural ability to lead and a goal-oriented mindset unseen in a player who just turned 20.”

Correa hadn’t even played above the high-A ball level before this season, yet a 1.185 OPS in 133 PA in Double-A quickly earned him another promotion to Triple-A, where he posted a .266/.336/.447 line over 107 PA.  While this Triple-A production isn’t quite dominant, Correa still projects as an upgrade for the Astros at shortstop.  Jed Lowrie will be out until after the All-Star break following thumb surgery, and Jonathan Villar and Marwin Gonzalez have combined for -0.2 fWAR this season.

Many predicted Correa would reach the majors at some point in 2015, though the Astros’ unexpected stint atop the AL West adds a different dimension to the promotion.  Correa will be expected to step in and contribute to a playoff hopeful, rather than the expected scenario of getting his feet wet in the bigs for a team most felt was still at least a season away from contending.  As Luhnow noted, the Astros aren’t expecting Correa to immediately become a superstar.  In fact, there’s not necessarily any guarantee that Correa will even spend the rest of the season in the majors, should he struggle and Lowrie returns as scheduled.  This is just my speculation, but if Correa is playing well when Lowrie gets back, Lowrie could replace Luis Valbuena at third base — Lowrie has appeared in 83 MLB games at third, though he hasn’t played the position since 2011.

From a service time perspective, Correa is likely to fall short of eventually earning Super Two status even if he spends the rest of the year in the majors, based on recent Super Two cutoff points.  Houston hasn’t been shy in calling up some of their top minor league prospects, as Lance McCullers, Preston Tucker and Michael Feliz have all made their MLB debuts in 2015.

Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports

Quick Hits: Indians, Correa, Astros, Gee, Reds

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Here’s the latest from around the league.

  • The Indians aren’t likely to option Jose Ramirez or call up Francisco Lindor, writes Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. As Hoynes puts it, Ramirez often does something to help the team win despite a .184/.252/.245 slash. The club would like to see more from Lindor before considering a promotion. He’s currently hitting .265/.341/.383 at Triple-A. Mike Aviles is stretched thin covering for both Ramirez and third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall. The team could promote utility infield Zach Walters, but there’s no guarantee he would be an upgrade. As such, Ramirez will probably continue to play with regularity.
  • Astros top prospect Carlos Correa could be promoted as soon as their upcoming series against the White Sox, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. Manager A.J. Hinch spoke with reporters about the importance of being mentally and physically prepared for the majors. With Jed Lowrie sidelined, the club has turned to a combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar. The pair have not performed well. Given Houston’s place atop the AL West, there is some pressure to summon Correa. Since his promotion to Triple-A, he’s hitting a restrained .253/.324/.429 in 102 plate appearances.
  • The Astros have the highest bonus pool for the upcoming draft, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Houston can spend $17,289,200 because they have the second and fifth overall picks. GM Jeff Luhnow aims to have the “best yield” of any club. In the past, the Astros signed Correa to an under-slot contract in order to go over-slot for Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz. They attempted to do the same last year with Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix, but Aiken’s failed physical ruined that plan.
  • The Mets have scrapped their six-man rotation, and Dillon Gee will move to the bullpen, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN. Gee is unhappy with the move. He believes he’ll have less value to the team and on the trade market as a reliever. He’s owed $5.3MM in 2015 and is club controlled through 2016. The club was using a six-man rotation to limit the workloads of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. New York may also promote Steven Matz at some point. He has a 1.94 ERA with 9.08 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9 in the hitter friendly PCL.
  • The next few weeks will decide if the Reds are deadline sellers, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The team is currently 23-31 and seven games back from the second Wild Card slot. If the club continues to scuffle, players like Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Jay Bruce could be shopped. Cueto and Leake are free agents at the end of the season.

Heyman’s Latest: Astros/Hamels, Reds, Matz, Zobrist, Ackley, Soriano

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In this week’s edition of his Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by examining the possibility of the Astros making a run at the Phillies’ Cole Hamels. Houston is seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter, and Hamels is on their radar, Heyman hears, even though he’s something of a long shot. The Astros are seeking a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, one person told Heyman, though Houston GM Jeff Luhnow indicated they’d be interested in any arm that could start Games 1-3 of a playoff series. The Phillies are said to be intrigued by outfield prospects Preston Tucker and Brett Phillips, among others, Heyman notes. Houston won’t part with top prospect Carlos Correa or impressive rookie right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., and they’d prefer to keep righty Vincent Velasquez as well. Heyman adds that it’s uncertain whether or not Hamels would approve a trade to Houston, with one source indicating that they didn’t find the scenario likely. If Hamels were to approve the trade, he’d likely ask that his 2019 option be exercised, and the Phillies would almost certainly have to pay down some of the $24MM he is owed annually, per Heyman.

Some more highlights…

  • The Reds are currently reluctant to sell any pieces according to rivals who have reached out to the team. That may simply be due to the fact that the team is set to host the All-Star game this year and doesn’t want to begin a potential fire sale before that game. However, other execs have indicated to Heyman that owner Bob Castellini prefers to see how his big-money investments in Joey Votto and others will play out rather than commencing a rebuilding effort.
  • Both Dillon Gee and Jon Niese remain widely available, as the Mets would prefer to add promising lefty Steven Matz to their six-man rotation. One scout that spoke to Heyman said Matz is better than any pitcher in the rotation aside from Matt Harvey, which is high praise, particularly considering Jacob deGrom’s brilliant start to the season and the flashes of brilliance displayed by Noah Syndergaard.
  • The Yankees are interested in the Athletics’ Ben Zobrist as an option at second base and also still like Dustin Ackley despite his struggles with the Mariners. New York has been surprised by Jose Pirela’s troubles to this point, and they still have questions about Rob Refsnyder’s glove at second base. Heyman adds that the Yankees don’t expect to be big players on Cole Hamels this winter, and they were worried about Mark Teixeira enough this offseason that they checked in on Ryan Howard, though clearly those concerns have dissipated in light of Teixeira’s excellent resurgence.
  • The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Cubs are the three teams that Heyman mentions as most realistic options for right-hander Rafael Soriano. He calls the Cards “a surprise entry” into the Soriano mix, adding that the Jays have not given up the idea of signing him but will need to see what his price tag is now that he’s switched representatives.
  • The Mariners will probably see a need to add a veteran catcher after trading Welington Castillo to the D-Backs in order to land Mark Trumbo. Heyman spoke to someone close to the Mariners who described the team as “desperate” to add offense prior to the Trumbo deal, as they’ve received struggles from many of their outfielders and, surprisingly, Robinson Cano.
  • Red Sox higher-ups have an immense amount of respect for manager John Farrell, so while votes of confidence from ownership and executives often mean little, Heyman feels that Boston’s recent vote of confidence in Farrell has more weight behind it. However, Boston won’t be swayed by the fact that Farrell’s contract runs through 2017 if they do decide a change is needed down the line.
  • Both Dodgers right-hander Jose De Leon and Yankees shortstop Jorge Mateo have hired Scott Boras to represent them. The pair of prospects is well-regarded within each organization.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Ruggiano, Trumbo, Astros, Hamilton

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As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News discussed with host Jeff Todd on yesterday’s MLBTR podcast, the Rangers are likely to be tempted mostly by high-quality arms at the deadline. Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com opines that Texas may be the Phillies’ best match in terms of prospects. Seidman speculates that a package centering around Jorge Alfaro and Nomar Mazara — two names previously said by CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman to be of interest to Philadelphia — makes sense for Cole Hamels, as the Phillies are “desperate” to add a young catcher and would like an outfielder with some pop. Seidman wonders if including a rejuvenated Aaron Harang or paying a chunk of Jonathan Papelbon’s contract and including him, too, would entice the Rangers. Of course, all of this boils own to speculation at this juncture, but the Rangers do seem to be a fit given their somewhat unexpectedly strong start. Texas is 28-26 after a win last night, but their ranks 19th in ERA (4.24), 24th in FIP (4.36) and 28th in xFIP (4.51).

More from the AL West to kick off your Friday morning…

  • The decision to designate Justin Ruggiano for assignment over Rickie Weeks was not an easy one for the Mariners, writes Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. “The particulars are not something I want to discuss,” manager Lloyd McClendon told Dutton. “Hopefully, this gives (Ruggiano) a chance to catch on with somebody else. It was a very difficult decision.” As Dutton notes, there was going to be an extreme lack of playing time for whoever remained on the roster, following the acquisition of Mark Trumbo. Dutton also points out that McClendon frequently used Dustin Ackley and Willie Bloomquist as late defensive replacements, rather than Ruggiano, perhaps indicating that the Mariners weren’t particularly enamored with his defense.
  • Dutton also spoke with Mark Trumbo, the man whose acquisition led to Ruggiano’s DFA. Trumbo said that the news he’d been traded “was a lot to take, initially,” but that when he found out he was headed to Seattle, his mind eased. “I couldn’t have been happier,” said Trumbo. “I’ve loved coming here when I was with the Angels. It’s one of my favorite places in the country — or the world, for that matter.” Trumbo went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles and started at first base in his Mariners debut.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle yesterday that he believes Brady Aiken has joined Jacob Nix in not consenting to allow the Astros to draft him again in 2015, as is his right after not signing in 2014. When a Twitter follower asked Drellich whether or not 21st-round pick Mac Marshall, who also did not sign, had done the same, Marshall himself replied on Twitter to say that he had “no hard feelings” toward Houston and has given his consent to be drafted by the Astros again in 2015.
  • Josh Hamilton tells Grant that he’s only had a hamstring injury of this significance one other time in his career in 2007  when he put an extreme amount of effort into rehabbing as he first got back into the Majors following four years of drug-related suspensions. Hamilton likely pushed too hard in his rehab in an effort to get back on the field with the Rangers but says he does not regret how he went about his rehab. Grant reports that he has received a platelet rich plasma injection in the injured area that the team hopes will accelerate the healing process.

Quick Hits: Ruth, Slowey, Nix, Cuba

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Babe Ruth pioneered many things in baseball, of course, and one lesser-known among them came in the insurance arena, as Richard Sandomir writes for the New York Times. Before the 1920 campaign, Ruth took out a disability policy of the kind that is now standard for players looking to protect themselves from injury or illness.

Here are some more stray notes from around the game:

  • 31-year-old righty Kevin Slowey has joined the MLBPA as a special assistant, per a press release. He’ll assist in the union’s preparations for the coming collective bargaining negotiations. Slowey, who spent the spring in Phillies camp, has appeared in the big leagues with the Twins and Marlins. All said, he compiled 662 innings of 4.62 ERA pitching, striking out 6.7 and walking 1.5 batters per nine along the way.
  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today spoke with Jacob Nix, the righty who saw his deal with the Astros fall through last year as part of the Brady Aiken fallout. Nix explains that he has tried to stay positive, but did not sugarcoat the difficulties he faced. “Last year pretty much sucked,” said Nix. “I was literally in the wrong place and the wrong time. It was a bad situation. The whole year was pretty difficult for myself and for my family.” Houston ultimately offered Nix a $620K bonus after pulling back the $1.5MM deal that had been struck, says Nightengale, but he declined. Nix was set to attend UCLA — even driving out to the campus — but ultimately ended up at the IMG Academy as eligibility issues loomed due to the NCAA’s rules (which are, in my view, remarkably unfair). While winning a grievance against the Astros that “paid him a fraction of his original signing bonus,” Nix says he also pushed his development on the mound and is now a much more complete pitcher entering this year’s draft. The whole piece is well worth a read and comes highly recommended.
  • Exhibition baseball is likely heading to Cuba next year, as commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters yesterday, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The expectation is that clubs chosen by the league will head to the neighboring island during Spring Training.
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