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Astros Select Tayler Scott

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Right-hander Tayler Scott has made the Astros’ Opening Day roster, reports Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. He’d been in camp as a non-roster invitee but will be selected to the 40-man roster, with lefty Bennett Sousa heading to the 15-day IL and righty Lance McCullers Jr. heading to the 60-day IL to create roster space for him. McCullers is recovering from forearm surgery and was already known to be out for the early portion of the season. Sousa is dealing with shoulder inflammation.

Scott, 31, has appeared in parts of three MLB seasons, spending time with the Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Dodgers, Red Sox and A’s. He’s only pitched 46 big league innings, but Houston will still remarkably be his seventh team.

The first South African-born player in MLB history, Scott signed a minor league deal over the winter and had an excellent spring showing. In 11 innings, he notched a tidy 2.45 ERA with 10 punchouts against four walks while keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 55.2% clip.

Scott has yielded 46 runs in his 46 MLB innings, but teams have been continually drawn to his strong minor league track record and the high-end spin rate on his slider. Scott has a solid 3.83 ERA in 206 2/3 Triple-A frames, having punched out nearly 27% of his opponents against a 9.1% walk rate at that level.

Astros Claim Penn Murfee From Braves

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The Astros have claimed right-hander Penn Murfee from the Braves, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The Astros placed righty Kendall Graveman on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Graveman is going to miss the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery.

It was reported on Monday that Murfee was released but it seems he was actually on release waivers and had not yet cleared. Murfee, who turns 30 in May, had surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament in June of last year while with the Mariners. This offseason, he was claimed off waivers by the Mets and Braves, with the latter club non-tendering him and re-signing him.

Atlanta put him on waivers this week to try to open up a roster spot but the Astros swooped in with a claim. It’s a little strange that Atlanta put him on waivers since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, only release waivers. Perhaps the club was hoping Murfee would clear and become a free agent, then they could re-sign him to a minor league deal, not having to give him major league pay or service time. It’s a moot point now as whatever plans Atlanta had were foiled by Houston.

The Astros have roster spots to burn, so it’s more or less a free pickup for them. As mentioned, Graveman is going to miss the entire season and was going to end up on the 60-day IL at some point. The same is true of Luis García Jr., who had Tommy John surgery in May of last year. Lance McCullers Jr. had flexor tendon surgery and is a candidate for the 60-day IL as well. Then there’s Oliver Ortega, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and will miss three to four months.

With all of those injuries, it’s quite easy for the Astros to claim a player and make a corresponding move and Murfee will now give them yet another player that can be moved to the 60-day IL to open up a spot in the future.

Murfee has a 2.70 career earned run average in 83 1/3 major league innings, all of those with the Mariners over the past two seasons. He struck out 27.9% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at an 8.5% clip. Given those results, it’s understandable that so many clubs have shown interest since he lost his roster spot with Seattle.

Once healthy, he will jump into the mix for a spot in a Houston bullpen that has seen a decent amount of turnover. Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek each hit free agency and signed with other clubs. Graveman’s injury further depleted the depth and spurred the Astros to make a splashy addition, signing Josh Hader. Combined with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu, Hader gives the Astros a lethal punch for leverage spots but the relief corps isn’t as deep as it was last year.

Murfee has just under two years of service, meaning the Astros could theoretically retain him for the next five years if he returns to health and is in good form. He also has a full slate of options, giving them some roster flexibility going forward.

Ronel Blanco To Begin Season In Astros’ Rotation

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Right-hander Ronel Blanco will start the 2024 season in the Astros’ rotation, manager Joe Espada announced to the team’s beat writers last night (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Blanco got the news after celebrating the birth of his daughter Tuesday and going on to fan 10 hitters in his final start of spring training — not a bad way to close out camp.

The final couple spots in Houston’s rotation have been up in the air throughout spring training due to injuries up and down the staff. The ’Stros entered camp knowing that Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery) would start the year on the shelf. But since camp began, they’ve seen Justin Verlander slowed by shoulder discomfort, Jose Urquidy sustain a forearm strain and righty Shawn Dubin stalled by shoulder troubles of his own. That trio will join McCullers and Garcia on the injured list to begin the season. Right-hander J.P. France has also battled through shoulder problems, but he’s recovered to the point where he’ll now join Blanco in the rotation to begin the year.

Blanco, 30, didn’t even make his major league debut until his age-28 season in 2022 and only tossed 6 1/3 frames that year. He logged 52 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with the Astros in 2023, starting seven games and making another 10 relief appearances. Command woes (12.4% walk rate) and extreme susceptibility to home runs (2.08 HR/9) worked against Blanco in 2023, but neither has been an issue through his small sample of spring innings. Blanco was unscored upon in 15 2/3 frames during Cactus League play, striking out 32.7% of his opponents against a tidy 7.3% walk rate.

It’s a small sample that’s come against opposition that hasn’t entirely consisted of MLB hitters, but it’s nevertheless an encouraging trend. Blanco walked 12.6% of his opponents even in Triple-A last season, so any strides in that department are most welcome. He’ll need to demonstrate that his improved command is sustainable over a larger sample against more advanced competition, but there’s little denying that he’s earned this opportunity — outperforming alternative rotation options like swingman Brandon Bielak or non-roster prospect Spencer Arrighetti.

The Astros don’t seem to be anticipating a lengthy absence for Verlander, and if he indeed is able to return before long, that’ll create an interesting decision on whether Blanco or France retains his rotation spot. France had the stronger overall showing in 2023, emerging as an unexpectedly vital contributor who tossed 136 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball. But France also wilted substantially after a hot start to the season; from Aug. 1 through season’s end, he was torched for 5.84 ERA in 44 2/3 innings. Much of that damage came in a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, but France was increasingly prone to walks and hard contact in the season’s final two months, even when setting aside that outlier shellacking against Boston.

The Astros will send lefty Framber Valdez to the mound for tomorrow’s Opening Day start. For the time being, he’ll be followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Blanco and France. Time will tell when or whether the Astros need to make a decision on the back end of the staff. Additional injuries could further cement Blanco and/or France among the group. In all likelihood, both France and Blanco will make their fair share of starts in 2024. Both have minor league options remaining — two for France, one for Blanco — and injuries/spot starts will necessitate utilizing far more than just five or even six starters. But at least early in the season, Blanco will get the chance to make a strong impression and show that he’s deserving of a long-term spot in a Houston rotation that has been continually dogged by injuries over the past couple years. Blanco has less than one year of big league service and can be controlled all the way through the 2029 season.

Bregman: No Extension Offer From Astros, Open To In-Season Negotiations

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Astros third baseman Alex Bregman spoke to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, this afternoon and revealed that his camp has not yet received an extension offer from the Astros and that he does not expect to receive one before Opening Day this week. Bregman made clear, however, that he would be willing to negotiate during the season if the club were to approach him with an offer.

That Houston hasn’t made an offer to Bregman at this point is something of a surprise, given comments from both club owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown earlier this winter indicated that the club has every intention of making Bregman an offer before he hits free agency this November. That Bregman is willing to negotiate in-season keeps the door to the sides making progress on extension talks at some point this season open, though Spring Training is generally regarded by both players and club officials as the ideal time for contract negotiations, lest they become a distraction during the season.

Brown has long been candid about his desire to lock up the club’s core players long term, and since then has successfully extended the contracts of both right-hander Cristian Javier and, more recently, second baseman and franchise face Jose Altuve. The club reportedly explored extensions with both southpaw Framber Valdez and outfielder Kyle Tucker last offseason along with Javier, though those talks ultimately did not result in a deal. This winter, club officials have outwardly interest in retaining Bregman long-term in their public comments, with Brown even indicating last month that the club plans to reopen negotiations with Tucker but will likely prioritize Bregman for the time being.

Despite those comments indicating the club hopes to retain Bregman long term, the club appeared to prioritize extending Altuve over Bregman this winter with reports indicating that the Astros were skeptical of their chances regarding a deal with Bregman. Crane’s comments on the matter earlier this winter even acknowledged this, as the owner admitted that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance” to Altuve, who would have hit free agency prior to his age-35 season in contrast to Bregman, who will play the 2025 season at just 31 years old.

If the Astros are concerned about they’re ability to make an offer Bregman would consider accepting, they’re somewhat justified in their concerns. Third basemen of a similar caliber to Bregman have routinely found offers north of $200MM either in free agency or via extensions, as demonstrated by deals inked by players such as Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, and Anthony Rendon. By contrast, Marcus Semien’s seven-year $175MM pact with the Rangers during the 2021-22 offseason is the high-water mark for second basemen in free agency. That wasn’t far off from where they were ultimately willing to go for Altuve, who signed a five-year, $125MM extension last month.

Even if Bregman was willing to accept a deal with a similar AAV to Altuve’s recent extension, the disparity between their respective ages presents another hurdle. Six-plus year deals for infielders in their early thirties have become commonplace in recent years, as demonstrated by pacts such as those signed by Semien, Rendon, Kris Bryant, and even D.J. LeMahieu in recent years. It would hardly be a shock if Bregman was looking for a similar length, and the six-year, $115MM extension the club signed Yordan Alvarez to represents the only pact longer than five years in franchise history. A six- or seven-year deal worth $25MM or more, as Bregman might require to forgo free agency, would be a major departure from the club’s previous way of doing business.

On the other hand, the club figures to see more than $100MM come off the books during the coming winter, per RosterResource. Much of that money figures to go to arbitration-level players such as Tucker and Valdez, both of whom are set to earn eight-figure salaries in their final trip through arbitration next year, though even after accounting for that its certainly feasible the club could afford to offer Bregman a hefty deal. It’s also worth noting that Houston has expressed a new willingness to flex their financial muscle this winter. The club is set to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history this year, and the club’s five-year deal with ace closer Josh Hader is the sort of top-of-the-market expenditure the club has tended to shy away from under Crane’s ownership. If these changes are a sign of a new approach, rather than an all-in effort to contend while the club’s current core remain under control, it’s certainly feasible that the club could work out a deal to retain Bregman at some point, whether that be during the season or after he hits free agency in the fall.

Oliver Ortega To Miss Three To Four Months After Undergoing Elbow Surgery

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The Astros announced to the beat, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that right-hander Oliver Ortega had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and will be shut down for three to four months.

Ortega, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Twins in October. He stuck on Houston’s roster all winter and made two appearances for them this spring. But manager Joe Espada announced a couple of days ago that the righty would be going to see a doctor, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. It seems the doctor determined surgery was necessary and that Ortega will be out of action for roughly half the season, at least.

The righty has 58 innings of big league experience between the Angels and Twins, with a 4.03 earned run average in that time. He has averaged between 95 and 97 miles per hour with both his four-seam fastball and his sinker but hasn’t translated that into big strikeout numbers in the majors, as he has punched out just 20.4% of major league hitters faced while walking 10.8%.

He’s generally been able to sit down more batters in the minors. He tossed 34 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year with a 1.82 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He still has an option so the Astros were likely hoping for him to serve as a lively depth arm who could be summoned to the majors when needed throughout the season. Unfortunately, he will now have to sit out a decent portion of the upcoming campaign.

The club will likely put Ortega on the 60-day injured list when they need a roster spot, but they also have several other candidates for such a move. Kendall Graveman is going to miss the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery while both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are targeting midseason returns after they each underwent elbow surgery last year.

Brown: Astros “Not Actively” Pursuing Starting Pitching

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There was a time late last week when it seemed as if Blake Snell might become an Astro. On Friday evening, reports emerged that Houston was making a push for the defending NL Cy Young winner. Ultimately, the team balked at paying upwards of $30MM per season, and Snell signed a $62MM guarnatee with the Giants. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Astros’ offer was for two years at less than $50MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown now tells Chandler Rome of the Athletic that while the front office won’t rule out adding a starter, they’re “not actively doing anything” on that front. Brown made similar comments about the team’s comfort with the rotation before their late effort to land Snell, so that doesn’t rule out a move. At the same time, the GM suggested Snell was something of a unique case.

“It’s a different guy. If we have a bunch of guys that are similar to the other guys that are available, why go after them? Why pay more money for the same production? We feel like if we get Snell, that’s a huge piece, so you have to be on the market for a guy that’s a huge piece like that,” Brown said. “But the other guys that are available, they compare to all of our guys that we have depth with. I wouldn’t want to pay more money and we (already) got a guy right around the minimum or a little bit more. That wouldn’t be smart.”

That’s not really true of Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA and has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the past three seasons. Still, there hasn’t been any indication that Houston has had substantive interest in the southpaw at any point this offseason. It’s more debatable whether they’d get an upgrade from any of the other unsigned starting pitchers, a group led by Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. Yet even if someone like Lorenzen isn’t a marked improvement over Houston’s in-house starters, there’d be some merit to bringing in another pitcher to cover against early-season injuries.

The Astros entered camp knowing that Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. wouldn’t be factors until midway through the season. Justin Verlander is a couple weeks behind schedule due to shoulder soreness and will start the year on the injured list. That’s now also true of José Urquidy, who was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his forearm yesterday.

While forearm strains can be precursors to more serious injuries, Urquidy provided reporters with a positive update this afternoon. The righty said that multiple evaluations indicated his UCL was fully intact and that imaging mainly revealed muscular inflammation in his forearm (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Urquidy expressed his hope he could begin a throwing program within 10-14 days.

That won’t keep him off the injured list but addresses any fear the team might’ve had about Urquidy possibly needing surgery. Brown told Rome that the Astros expect Urquidy will be out of action for a little more than a month all told. Houston’s season-opening starting staff should be led by Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France. Right-handers Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco are the top options for the #5 role if the Astros don’t go outside the organization.

Jose Urquidy Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, Will Open Season On Injured List

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy has been diagnosed with a strained muscle in his forearm and will open the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Rome notes that Espada was asked specifically about Urquidy’s ulnar collateral ligament but replied that the only information he’s received is that there’s a forearm strain. Urquidy, who pulled himself from his most recent spring start due to elbow pain and underwent an MRI, will be shut down from throwing for the next few days.

Urquidy joins Justin Verlander (shoulder discomfort), Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery last May) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery last June) as Astros starters on the injured list to begin the season. Left-hander Framber Valdez has already been named the Opening Day starter, and he’ll likely be joined on the starting staff by righties Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and J.P. France.

Injuries have mounted for the Astros in spring training, and they’ll now have nearly an entire MLB rotation (and a good one, at that) on their 15-day IL to open the year. The ’Stros also announced early in camp that setup man Kendall Graveman would miss the season due to shoulder surgery — a move that prompted them to pivot and sign Josh Hader to a five-year contract in free agency.

There’s been talk of a similar late grab on the rotation side of things. As recently as Friday, the ’Stros were reported to be in “serious” pursuit of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but there’s been some doubt cast on the team’s willingness to pay Snell a $30MM annual salary. Doing so would push Houston into the third tier of luxury penalization, resulting in just over $12MM of taxes (on top of Snell’s actual salary). It’d also cause Houston’s top pick in next year’s draft to drop by 10 places and would require the Astros to forfeit their second-highest pick (currently in the third round, as they forfeited their second-rounder to sign Hader) as well as $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency.

For Urquidy, this will mark the third time in four seasons he’ll head to the injured list. In 2021, a pair of shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings. He was healthy enough to avoid the IL entirely and pitch in 29 games (28 starts) for Houston in 2022, but last year saw a return of some shoulder pain. Urquidy was placed on the injured list on May 1 and didn’t return until Aug. 6, ultimately pitching just 63 innings on the year.

When he’s healthy, there’s little doubt Urquidy is a quality big league pitcher. He was dinged for a 5.29 ERA in last year’s relatively small sample and likely wasn’t pitching at 100% prior to that IL stint, but he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every other season of his career. In 405 big league innings, Urquidy has a solid 3.98 earned run average with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate but a very strong 5.8% walk rate. As an undersized righty (6’0″) with fly-ball tendencies and an average fastball, he’s susceptible to home runs  (1.49 HR/9). But Urquidy’s plus changeup has helped him neutralize lefties throughout his career, holding them to an awful  .203/.255/.364 slash.

It’s not yet clear how long Urquidy will spend on the shelf, but pairing his absence with that of Verlander —  plus the previously known season-opening IL stints for Garcia and McCullers — has already begun to test the Astros’ rotation depth. Add in that right-hander Shawn Dubin has yet to pitch this spring due to shoulder discomfort of his own, and Houston is all the more thin in that department. Swingman Brandon Bielak would probably be the next man up in the event of a further injury, and after him the Astros don’t even have another healthy starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti has been mentioned as a possible option, though he’d need to be selected to the 40-man roster.

As such, even if it’s not Snell or Jordan Montgomery, it seems as though the Astros would make sense for further pitching reinforcements. General manager Dana Brown has gone back and forth on the team’s stance. When announcing that Verlander would open the year on the IL, he suggested the team wasn’t in the market for additional rotation help. Last week, after Urquidy pulled himself after 43 pitches when he’d been slated to throw around 60, Brown reversed course and said he’s “always” in the market for rotation help and even went so far as to acknowledge that so long as Snell remained on the market, the Astros would be checking in on his price tag and where things stood.

If not Snell or Montgomery, the market offers a handful of veteran names. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are both free agents, as is old friend Zack Greinke. There will also be a handful of options hitting the market late in camp, as veterans who are on non-roster deals with other teams are released or opt out of those deals upon being informed they won’t make the club. There’ll also be some arms available via the DFA market, as teams make corresponding moves to set their 40-man rosters. Some form of rotation addition seems quite plausible for Houston in the next ten days.

Astros Reportedly “Long-Shots” To Land Blake Snell

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The Astros have been the buzz of the baseball world this weekend following reporting that indicated the club was in “serious pursuit” of the top remaining free agent, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale earlier today indicates that the club may be a “long-shot” to ultimately land the southpaw, however. Nightengale reports that the club has “balked” at the asking price from Snell’s camp, which he adds stands at a $60MM guarantee over two years that includes an opt-out following the 2024 season. Houston, Nightengale adds, is conscious of being pushed over an additional luxury tax threshold by a Snell deal with an AAV in the $30MM range. Nightengale goes on to suggest that the Giants currently appear to be the favorites for Snell’s services, though he makes clear that San Francisco has been waiting for Snell’s price to drop even as they’ve remained engaged with the southpaw.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would be worried about stomaching a $30MM annual commitment for Snell’s services. The club is already in unprecedented territory with regards to its player payroll; Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes that Houston has never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. That figure reaches nearly $256MM for luxury tax purposes, just over $1MM shy of the second, $257MM tax threshold.

Virtually any addition to the club’s payroll at any point this season would push them past that level, but a more significant addition such as Snell would leave the club at risk of going over the third threshold, which stands at $277MM for the 2024 season. While the first two brackets of the luxury tax come with only financial considerations, the penalties get stiffer when a clubs surpasses the third threshold. Those penalties most notably include the club’s highest pick in the following year’s draft being pushed back ten places, which is further compounded by an associated cut to the club’s bonus pool for signing their draft picks that year. Given the elevated costs involved with a pursuit of Snell, it was hardly surprising when GM Dana Brown suggested that the club wasn’t interested in pursuing additional starting pitching this spring, even name-dropping Snell specifically as a player the club would “love to have” but didn’t expect to sign.

Of course, it’s hard to overstate just how impactful Snell could be for the Astros rotation even in spite of those ancillary concerns. Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are both set to open the season on the injured list and miss considerable time this season. They’ll also be joined at least for the early days of the campaign by veteran ace Justin Verlander, whose start to the season has been delayed soreness in his right shoulder. Those injuries leave the club’s rotation depth in an tough spot entering the season, and a recent injury scare regarding Jose Urquidy has only exacerbated those concerns. KRPC2’s Ari Alexander reported recently that Urquidy has been dealing with “forearm stiffness” per a source, while manager Joe Espada told reporters yesterday that the right-hander has flown back to Houston from the club’s spring complex in Florida to meet with team doctors.

Losing Urquidy could leave the club to rely on depth options such as Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco behind a front-of-the-rotation duo featuring Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, at least for the start of the season. Adding Snell to that mix would not only give the club much-needed additional pitching depth early in the season, but would also add an impactful, playoff-caliber arm to a rotation that saw each of Verlander, Valdez, and Javier take steps back in 2023 from the 2022 form that saw the group stand among the very best starting trios in baseball that year. While Snell certainly has flashed inconsistencies of his own throughout his career, posting a relatively pedestrian 3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP from 2019 to 2022, he’s nonetheless ranged from a dependable mid-rotation arm to an elite, front-of-the-rotation flamethrower throughout his eight years in the majors and would be a surefire upgrade to an Astros club looking to make an eighth consecutive postseason appearance this fall.

On the other hand, Snell would provide all those same benefits to the Giants. San Francisco has had a busy offseason, bringing in Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler in the managers’ chair while adding the likes of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jordan Hicks in free agency. With that being said, the club has done little to address a rotation mix that delivered the least innings among all major league clubs last year. Hicks has moved from the bullpen into the rotation since joining San Francisco, and the club could also receive a boost from trade acquisition Robbie Ray midseason upon his return from Tommy John surgery sometimes this summer. With Ray, Alex Cobb, and Tristan Beck all set to open the season on the injured list, however, it leaves the club with minimal certainty in the rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb.

Given how much the club would benefit from another front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Webb, it’s not a surprise that the Giants continue to be involved in Snell’s market. Despite comments from club chairman Greg Johnson back in February that suggested the club planned to rely on young rotation arms such as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn entering the 2024 season, reporting has indicated that San Francisco has remained in the mix for Snell in recent weeks, though the club has signaled that it did not anticipate further major additions after signing Chapman earlier this month.

While it’s unclear how far Snell’s price would have to fall for San Francisco to pounce, the club’s books figure to have far more flexibility than those in Houston. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $177MM entering the 2024 season, likely leaving ample room for the club to fit Snell into the budget. While the club’s luxury tax payroll stands at a somewhat higher $226MM figure, even an AAV approaching Snell’s reported $30MM asking price would leave the club just a touch under the second luxury tax threshold.

Astros In “Serious Pursuit” Of Blake Snell

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The Astros are facing various questions around the health of their rotation and are now in “serious pursuit” of Blake Snell, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

At this point, it’s unclear if any kind of deal is close but it’s a noteworthy development and resembles an earlier situation for the Astros. Back in January, their bullpen took a hit when Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery. Astros general manager Dana Brown initially downplayed the club’s desire to go out and sign free agents to address the problem but the club signed closer Josh Hader a few days later.

In the intervening two months, a lot has changed with the rotation. The Astros already knew that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. were going to be starting the year on the injured list, as both underwent elbow surgeries last summer, but this spring has seen a couple more dominos fall. Justin Verlander has been slowed by some right shoulder soreness which doesn’t seem terribly serious but it delayed him enough that he’ll start the season on the injured list. Earlier today, José Urquidy departed his start early due to some pain in his right elbow.

If Urquidy needs to miss time, then the Opening Day rotation would project to include Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown in the front three spots. J.P. France was also slowed by a shoulder issue this spring but seems to perhaps be on track to take over a spot at the back end. That would still leave one rotation spot open and Houston is a bit thin in terms of options to step in there.

Ronel Blanco has just 58 1/3 innings of major league work on his ledger and was only recently moved from being a primary reliever to more of a swing role. Brandon Bielak has a 4.54 ERA in his 174 1/3 innings but with uninspiring peripherals, including an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. Shawn Dubin has just nine innings of major league experience.

It seems the club is considering a notable strike in free agency to get out of this injury hole, similar to their move to grab Hader after Graveman went down. Brown again downplayed the club’s desire to add pitching, including Snell, though that was before Urquidy’s injury surfaced.

Some may question whether Snell is ready to help a club like the Astros since he hasn’t been pitching in official spring games and Opening Day is less than two weeks away. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Snell recently threw 60 pitches over four simulated innings to try to get ready outside of official Spring Training contests. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays the same info, adding that scouts from the Giants and Astros were in attendance.

Snell has lingered on the open market far longer than anyone anticipated coming off a Cy Young season. He turned in a 2.25 ERA over 180 innings with San Diego a year ago. He surely envisioned a long-term pact at the start of the offseason, but a deal to his liking has obviously yet to materialize. At this point, it looks as if he’ll follow in the path of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and turn to a short-term guarantee with opt-outs. Rosenthal and Rome report that he is believed to be seeking a three-year guarantee with a $30-32MM annual salary that would allow him to test free agency after each of the next two seasons.

The cost for the Astros would go beyond whatever it takes to get Snell to sign. They’re into luxury tax territory. RosterResource calculates their 2024 CBT number around $256MM. A contract anywhere near Snell’s expected price would vault them beyond the $257MM second penalization and the third threshold at $277MM.

Houston did not exceed the competitive balance tax a year ago, however. Unlike some other reported Snell suitors (most notably, the Yankees), the Astros are not facing exorbitant fees as repeat payors. They’d be responsible for a 20% tax on their next $1.3MM in spending, followed by a 32% tax on the following $20MM ($6.4MM) and a 62.5% hit on the ensuing $20MM. Signing Snell to a contract with a $32MM average annual value would come with an approximate $13.3MM tax bill for this year.

A Snell signing would also deal a small but not completely insignificant hit to the farm system because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Astros forfeited their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft and relinquished $500K of international signing bonus space to sign Hader. They’d need to surrender another $500K from the international pool and their third-round pick (#102) for Snell. Meanwhile, pushing past the $277MM luxury threshold — which would be all but assured for a Snell signing — would move back Houston’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft by 10 spots.

Jose Urquidy Being Evaluated For Elbow Injury; Astros Remain In Market For Starting Pitching

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy pulled himself from a minor league game after 43 pitches due to pain in his right elbow, manager Joe Espada told reporters (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). He’d been scheduled to throw around 60 pitches.

It’s a concerning development for a Houston club that will see Justin Verlander open the season on the injured list and knows it’ll be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the early portion of the 2024 campaign as well. Prior to this news, it looked as though Urquidy would join Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the Astros’ Opening Day rotation. That’s no sure thing now.

Urquidy, 28, missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with a shoulder injury, which only makes further arm troubles all the more ominous. He pitched to a career-worst 5.29 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound, with the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) and the highest walk rate (9.1%) he’s turned in during any big league season.

Prior to last year’s rough showing, Urquidy was a steady and arguably underrated member of the Houston staff. From 2019-22, he pitched 342 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but an excellent 5.2% walk rate. Durability has been an issue for the right-hander, but he’s been effective more often than not when he’s taken the ball.

The mounting number of injuries on the Houston staff could potentially spur the team to action. General manager Dana Brown said not even two weeks ago that he wasn’t in the market for more starting pitching … only to suggest the opposite to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle this week. Rome, citing a multiple anonymous sources, reported that the ’Stros are indeed still in the market for arms. Brown spoke in generalities when asked about Blake Snell, telling Rome: “As long as Snell is on the market, we check in to ask what is the latest. Nothing new as of now.”

It’s telling that those comments came even before today’s potential injury to Urquidy. Presumably, if there’s real concern that Urquidy might miss some time, that would only hasten the team’s desire to add to the rotation, whether in the form of Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger or any of the other arms the free agent or trade market may have to offer. Crane did act aggressively and decisively when the Astros found out they’d lost setup man Kendall Graveman for the season, surprising many onlookers by signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM contract.

Snell, of course, would be the costliest free agent on the market in terms of financial outlay and future considerations. Because he rejected a qualifying offer, Snell would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s international free agent bonus pool. Since they already punted a second-round pick to sign Hader, however, that’d “only” be a third-round pick.

Since the Astros are already at a projected $255.7MM of luxury obligations (per RosterResource), signing Snell would push that figure past the $257MM second-tier threshold and past the third-tier $277MM threshold. That $277MM line is of particular note, as crossing that barrier drops a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 places.

Any additional players signed by the Astros would be subject to penalty under the luxury tax, although because Houston didn’t pay the tax last year, they’re considered a first-time offender. That subjects them to much lesser fees than third-time offenders like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc. Houston would owe a 20% tax on the next $1.3MM spent, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM. That tax would be based on the annual value of the contract.

A $30MM AAV on a Snell deal, for instance, would cost the Astros around $12.1MM in luxury taxes. That’s a steep price, but it’s nowhere near the 110% tax rate the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and others would face. Whether that makes it palatable enough for owner Jim Crane to further add to what’s already a franchise-record payroll by a wide margin remains to be seen.

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