Lance McCullers Jr. saw his 2021 season end in the American League Division Series. He left his Game 4 start after four innings with forearm tightness, and while he and the Astros initially left open the possibility he could return later in the postseason, he wasn’t included on Houston’s rosters for either the ALCS or World Series.
McCullers was later diagnosed with a flexor strain, and it seems the injury was more serious than the club let on at the time. Speaking with Maanav Gupta of Maanav’s Sports Talk (YouTube link) this week, McCullers stated the issue “was much worse than we were putting off. … I had a pretty good strain in my flexor tendon in my forearm. It was off the bone quite a bit.”
The 28-year-old told reporters in early December he was “about a month” from beginning a throwing program. He has indeed begun to throw, but McCullers implied this week he’s not yet started to work off a mound. McCullers told Gupta he’s “behind” where he expected to be at this point in his rehab process and admitted he “(doesn’t) know if (he’ll) be ready Opening Day.” The season is currently slated to begin on March 31, which would give McCullers around five weeks to progress to game readiness from his current state.
Of course, whether the season will start on time is in question. MLB has suggested a new collective bargaining agreement would need to be in place by next Monday if the regular campaign is to be without any delay. Even as the league and Players Association have begun to meet more frequently, progress toward a mutually agreeable midpoint has been almost nonexistent. A delay to the season would afford McCullers and other injured players more time to rehab without missing game action, although it’d also prolong the ongoing ban on communication between union members and team staff.
That includes a prohibition on club medical personnel speaking with players on 40-man rosters, a provision MLB mandated when first instituting the lockout on December 2. Various people on the players’ side have expressed displeasure with that decision over the past few months, arguing that the league hadn’t been legally compelled to implement the communications ban. McCullers joined that chorus, saying the lockout has proved detrimental to his rehab.
“The lockout has made it tough because the people I would usually rely on for the rehab, I haven’t been able to speak to or communicate with,” the right-hander told Gupta. “It’s been a little bit difficult, I’m not going to lie. The rehab has been a little choppy. I was hoping to be a little bit further along than I am right now, but we have the unfortunate circumstance of being locked out. … It’s frustrating for me, because ultimately I’m the one who suffers and the fans are the ones who suffer while we argue away.”
Astros personnel are no doubt anxious to be allowed to touch base with McCullers, who is a key piece of the organization’s future. Houston inked him to a five-year, $85MM contract extension last spring that’ll go into effect this season. That was something of a bold bet by the organization, as a November 2018 Tommy John surgery and the pandemic had conspired to limit him to 55 regular season innings over the prior two seasons.
McCullers looked on his way to a bounceback before the flexor injury arose during the playoffs. He worked a career-high 162 1/3 frames across 28 starts in the regular season, posting a 3.16 ERA/4.02 SIERA. As he had throughout his career, McCullers generated an enviable combination of whiffs and ground balls. He fanned 27% of batters faced while inducing grounders on upwards of 56% of balls in play. No other pitcher with 100+ innings reached both those heights, helping McCullers overcome an elevated 11.1% walk rate to find plenty of success.
While the Astros are hopeful he’ll replicate that form in 2022, they are arguably as well-positioned as any team around the league to withstand a possible delayed start to the year from one of their top arms. Houston already brought back Justin Verlander this winter, and the club has a handful of promising younger options (José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier) capable of shouldering key rotation roles. Whether McCullers is able to join them in the season-opening mix may depend on how long the lockout continues to drag on.