Astros Acquire Nick Allgeyer From Phillies
The Astros acquired minor league lefty Nick Allgeyer from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations this afternoon, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. He’ll report to Houston’s top affiliate in Sugar Land.
Initially selected by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2018 draft, Allgeyer pitched his way to the upper levels of the Toronto system. He earned a cup of coffee at the big league level in 2021, tossing one inning of scoreless relief. The Jays ran him through outright waivers quickly thereafter, however, and he hasn’t made it back to the majors since that point.
For the past two-plus years, the University of Iowa product has mostly pitched in Triple-A. He’s worked in a swing role, starting 36 of 61 appearances. Over 202 1/3 Triple-A frames, Allgeyer carries a 5.34 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and an elevated 11% walk percentage. Allgeyer started four games with the Phils’ top affiliate after signing a minor league contract over the winter. He’s struck out 15 and walked six in 12 innings of six-run ball while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 48.3% clip.
Allgeyer adds some upper level rotation help to an organization whose starting pitching depth is being tested. Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. are all on the injured list. Garcia is done for the year after today’s announcement that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery. That has pushed Brandon Bielak and J.P. France to the MLB rotation, while some of Houston’s other depth starters are battling injuries of their own.
Righty Shawn Dubin was placed on the minor league injured list today. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley is dealing with minor soreness near his throwing shoulder and will take a day or two off throwing, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both Dubin and Whitley are on the 40-man roster, though neither has yet pitched in the majors.
Robinson Chirinos Announces Retirement
Veteran catcher Robinson Chirinos announced on Twitter today that he is retiring from professional baseball. “With a happy, yet heavy heart, I am announcing my retirement from professional baseball,” the statement reads. “After much contemplation and reflection, I have decided to close this chapter of my life. It has not been an easy decision, but I feel that it is the right one for me as I have given my heart and soul to this sport over so many years.” He then goes on to thank his family members, teammates, coaches, fans, team staff and many others who he crossed paths with over the years.
Chirinos, now 38 years old, originally signed with the Cubs as an amateur out of Venezuela back in 2000, shortly after his 16th birthday. An infielder at that time, he would toil away in the Cubs’ minor league system for a decade, starting his move to the catcher position in 2008. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster after 2010 but was traded to the Rays a few months later, going alongside Chris Archer and others as the Cubs acquired Matt Garza.
It was in that 2011 season that Chirinos was able to make his major league debut, getting into 20 games, but he had to miss the entire 2012 campaign due to a concussion. He was traded to the Rangers in April of 2013 for a player to be named later and would eventually spend six years with that club. His role was initially limited but gradually grew over time as he provided some pop behind the plate. From 2013 to 2018, he hit 67 home runs in 442 games, slashing .233/.325/.443 during that time for a wRC+ of 104. That coincided with a good stretch for the club as well, as Chirinos was able to get into four postseason games with the Rangers between 2015 and 2016.
He reached free agency for the first time after 2018 and he eventually signed with the Astros for one year and $5.75MM. He had a nice season in Houston, launching 17 home runs and hitting .238/.347/.443 for a wRC+ of 112. He would get into 14 more postseason games that year as the Astros went to the World Series, ultimately falling to the Nationals in seven games.
He would go into journeyman mode for the next few years. He returned to the Rangers for 2020 on a one-year, $6.75MM deal but ultimately hit just .162/.232/.243 in the shortened season, which included a trade to the Mets. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2021 but fractured his wrist after being hit by a pitch in Spring Training. He was released and eventually got into 45 games for the Cubs after returning to health, then got into another 67 contests with the Orioles last year.
All told, it was an unusual career for Chirinos, who seemed to do everything a little later than normal. He didn’t start playing his primary position until his mid-20s, then didn’t make it to the majors until his age-27 season and didn’t really become a regular until he was 30. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference consider his best season by wins above replacement to be 2019, his age-35 campaign.
Despite that delayed trajectory, he still managed to get into 714 major league games and make 2,457 plate appearances. He tallied 480 hits, including 95 home runs, scoring 275 times and driving in 306. MLBTR congratulates Chirinos on a fine career and wishes him the best in the next stages of his life.
Astros Notes: Garcia, Urquidy, Altuve, Diaz
The Astros formally placed righty Luis Garcia on the 15-day injured list yesterday, as was expected after he departed his most recent start due to elbow discomfort and underwent an MRI. Lefty Matt Gage is up from Triple-A in his place. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters prior to yesterday’s game that Garcia is getting a second opinion on the MRI but declined to go into any further specifics (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Additional information on the right-hander should be available as soon as this weekend, per the team’s skipper.
Garcia, 26, threw just eight pitches before exiting his most recent start. His fastball was clocked at an average of 91.7 mph — a good bit south of his 93 mph average in five prior starts this season and even further off the 94.1 mph he averaged in 2022. In those prior starts with the ‘Stros this year, he’d pitched to a 4.00 ERA with a strong 27% strikeout rate against an 8.7% walk rate. His fourth and fifth starts were particularly impressive, as Garcia rattled off 13 scoreless innings with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio in victories over the Blue Jays and Rays.
For now, the Astros can expect to be without Garcia for at least two weeks, but the MRI, second opinion and current lack of details will understandably make some Houston fans rather uneasy. News on fellow right-hander Jose Urquidy is at least a bit more promising. He’ll be shut down from throwing for the next 10 days, tweets Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, but an MRI revealed only inflammation near Urquidy’s shoulder and armpit. The right-hander himself doesn’t believe the injury to be particularly serious, McTaggart adds, so a return later this month seems plausible.
That’d be welcome news for an Astros club that now has Garcia, Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day injured list. At present, the only healthy starters on Houston’s big league roster are Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Long reliever Brandon Bielak could be an option to start, and the club also has right-handers Forrest Whitley, Shawn Dubin and J.P. France on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A.
There’s some brighter news with regard to Jose Altuve, who met with reporters today and revealed that he’s fielded ground-balls on each of the past two days (video link via McTaggart). Altuve, who underwent surgery to repair a fractured thumb sustained during the World Baseball Classic, isn’t yet swinging a bat and won’t have a clear timetable on a potential return until he’s able to do so. Fielding grounders is still a notable step in the All-Star second baseman’s return, as that marks the first baseball activity in which he’s participated since the surgery. Altuve raved about Mauricio Dubon‘s play in his absence but emphasized that he’s anxious to get back on the field as soon as possible.
Dubon isn’t the only (relative) newcomer who’s contributed in the first month of the season. Catcher Yainer Diaz hasn’t played all that frequently, with Martin Maldonado still receiving the lion’s share of playing time — but Diaz has impressed when on the field. He’s turned in a .258/.306/.355 batting line in 36 plate appearances and, much more impressively, thrown out five of ten runners who’ve attempted to steal against him.
Diaz’s play thus far has already caught the attention of first-year Astros general manager Dana Brown, who said in an appearance with Sean Salisbury on SportsTalk 790 AM that he increasingly looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle in Houston.
“Looking like he’s going to be the future for us behind the plate,” Brown said when asked for his early impressions of Diaz this season. “…He’s learning a lot under the tutelage of [Maldonado]. I’m sure at some point he’ll be mixed into the lineup a little bit more, but he’s coming along nicely. He threw those two guys out [yesterday] — bullets down to second base. That was very encouraging. He’s a bright light for us, no doubt.”
Maldonado, 36, is signed through the current season and is highly regarded by Baker and the team’s coaching staff for his defensive prowess, work with pitchers and general game-calling/game-planning abilities, but he’s also hitting just .162/.250/.235 in 77 plate appearances. An eventual uptick in at-bats for Diaz could serve as a soft audition for the starting role in 2024 and beyond, although the organization has made its fondness for Maldonado quite clear, so it’s always possible he ends up signing back for another season. Regardless, Diaz seems to be earning a role on the club and, as evidenced by his status as one of the game’s top 100 prospects at both Baseball America (No. 75) and FanGraphs (No. 80), there are quite a few in the industry who believe he’s capable of eventually emerging as Houston’s starting catcher.
Jose Abreu’s Slow Start In Houston
The Astros didn’t make many outside additions over the winter. They were content to generally run things back with last year’s World Series roster minus Justin Verlander and deadline rentals Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini. The only significant upgrade the Astros successfully pursued was at first base. They allowed Yuli Gurriel to depart and signed longtime White Sox slugger José Abreu to a three-year, $58.5MM deal.
Going to three years at a premium average annual value was not without risk. Abreu is 36 years old and offers limited defensive value. It was a bet on the bat, though it’s easy to see why Houston targeted the former AL MVP as a lineup upgrade. Abreu had hit .289/.366/.489 over the three seasons leading up to free agency. That included a .304/.378/.446 platform showing. He still looked like an impact hitter last November.
One can’t draw definitive conclusions on a move one month into a three-year contract. Yet it’s hard to envision Abreu getting off to a much worse start to his Houston tenure. Entering play Tuesday, the three-time All-Star owns a .235/.266/.269 batting line over 124 trips to the plate. He’s managed only four doubles and zero home runs. Out of 181 qualified hitters, he’s 170th in on-base percentage and 177th in slugging. This April was only the second month in Abreu’s career (July ’16 being the other) in which he played 20+ games and didn’t connect on a single homer.
The drop isn’t power isn’t a completely new development. Last year’s 15 homers and .446 slugging mark each represented the lowest figures of Abreu’s career. He was still a very productive hitter but the offensive profile was more driven by singles and doubles than by home runs.
Last year’s relative power drop was primarily a result of a dip in the frequency with which Abreu got the ball in the air. His hard contact rate was strong as ever, but he’d negated some of its impact by hitting a few more grounders than he had previously. That’s not the case this season. Abreu just isn’t hitting the ball with any kind of authority right now. His 35.9% hard contact rate is down dramatically from last year’s 51.7% figure. He has lost five MPH on his average exit velocity (down from an excellent 92.2 MPH to a pedestrian 87.2 MPH).
Abreu is more frequently chasing pitches outside the strike zone. While he’s never been an especially patient hitter, this year’s 41.2% swing rate on pitches outside the zone and 3.2% walk percentage would be the worst marks of his career. He’s doing a decent job putting balls in play but without any kind of impact.
It’s coincidentally a similar approach to the player whom Abreu replaced in Houston. Gurriel has been an elite hitter at times in his career, including when he secured the 2021 AL batting title. His final season in Houston wasn’t particularly effective, though, as he posted just a .242/.288/.360 line with eight homers and a 5.1% walk rate in 546 plate appearances. Gurriel had a good postseason but the Astros nevertheless let him depart to the Marlins on a minor league contract over the winter in recognition of the middling power and dearth of walks. (Gurriel made Miami’s Opening Day roster and is off to a .306/.358/.449 start through 14 games in a part-time role.)
It’s far too early to write Abreu off. He’s been such an accomplished hitter throughout his career that it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finds his stride over the coming weeks. The Astros have little choice but to count on him to figure things out for now. It’s too soon for any team to make meaningful trades. Houston wouldn’t look to upgrade over their top offseason signee after one bad month anyhow. It could raise an unexpected question mark for the club if Abreu is still floundering in six weeks, particularly since the lineup around him hasn’t picked up a ton of the slack.
The defending champions are tied for 12th in runs, 15th in OBP, and 22nd in slugging as a team. That’s in large part because of Abreu, although they’ve also predictably gotten no offense from their catchers and have been without Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley all season. Mauricio Dubón has stepped up in Altuve’s absence but certainly doesn’t offer the kind of power potential of Houston’s star second baseman.
Altuve seems likely to miss another month as recovers from his late-spring thumb fracture. Houston’s rotation has also taken some injury hits over the past couple days. They’re certainly not in dire straits — they enter play with a 16-13 record and are only a game and a half behind their in-state rivals in the AL West — but they’ll need more out of Abreu to help weather some of their poor health luck thus far.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Astros’ Luis Garcia Headed For MRI With Elbow Soreness
Astros righty Luis Garcia departed tonight’s win over the Giants after just eight pitches. The club later announced he was dealing with soreness in his throwing elbow.
After the game, manager Dusty Baker told the team’s beat that Garcia was headed for an MRI (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The skipper called the removal precautionary, though it’s still cause for some concern until the imaging results come back. Garcia met with the media as well, explaining that while he didn’t hear a pop in the elbow, he experienced enough pain he wouldn’t have been able to continue pitching (video provided by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
Even if Garcia is able to avoid anything especially serious, any kind of absence comes at an inopportune time for Houston. The Astros just lost José Urquidy to the injured list this afternoon. He’d left yesterday’s outing with shoulder discomfort and seems to be in for a notable stint on the shelf. Baker told reporters tonight that Urquidy’s MRI revealed inflammation and necessitates a complete shutdown from throwing for an unannounced period of time (via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Baker said only that Urquidy would be out “for a while.”
Garcia is arguably even more integral to Houston’s staff. The 26-year-old has allowed an even four earned runs per nine over 27 innings this season. He’s fanned 27% of opposing hitters against an 8.7% walk rate. Garcia started 28 games in each of the previous two seasons, tallying 155+ frames with an upper-3.00s ERA in both.
With Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. out and Garcia’s status now up in the air, Houston is down to Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown as rotation locks. The Astros recalled Brandon Bielak from Triple-A Sugar Land to take Urquidy’s roster spot. He filled in with 75 pitches over four innings in unexpected relief of Garcia today and could step into a rotation role over the longer haul.
J.P. France and Forrest Whitley, neither of whom has pitched in the majors, are on the 40-man roster and at Triple-A Sugar Land. Bryan Garcia is also with the Space Cowboys and started four MLB games for the Tigers last year. He’s off to a rough few weeks in the minors and does not hold a 40-man spot.
Astros Place Jose Urquidy On Injured List
The Astros have placed starter José Urquidy on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort, per a club announcement. Righty Brandon Bielak was recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take the vacated active roster spot.
Urquidy departed last night’s start against Philadelphia with the injury. The club announced postgame he was headed for an MRI. Chandler Rome of the Athletic tweets the team has yet to provide any specifics on the imaging, as Urquidy is slated to meet with medical personnel to analyze the results this evening. Regardless, Houston determined they weren’t going to run Urquidy back out there within the next two weeks.
The 28-year-old righty has started six games this year. He owns a 5.20 ERA through 27 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a below-average 18.7% clip while walking a career-high 8.1% of opponents. While it has been a bland first month, Urquidy has been a reliable mid-rotation control specialist for the bulk of his big league career. He’d allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in spite of middling strikeout tallies for the past few years, including a 3.94 ERA across a personal-best 164 1/3 innings last season.
Houston is also without Lance McCullers Jr. due to injury. The Astros are down to a four-man starting staff of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and touted rookie Hunter Brown (who has had an excellent first month in a big league rotation). Bielak has starting experience but manager Dusty Baker said the club will use him out of the bullpen initially (relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26). Houston has an off day Thursday, allowing them to potentially skip the fifth starter this week while keeping everyone else on regular rest.
Jose Urquidy To Receive MRI On Sore Right Shoulder
Jose Urquidy left tonight’s game due to soreness in his right shoulder, cutting short his start after 5 1/3 innings. A wayward pitch during an at-bat against Nick Castellanos caused Urquidy to “feel a little bit of pain in the back of my shoulder,” as he told FOX 26’s Mark Berman (Twitter links) and other reporters after the game. Urquidy didn’t sound overly concerned with the injury, but he’ll receive an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of any damage.
Because the Astros have an off-day on Thursday, it’s possible Urquidy might not miss a start if his MRI comes back clean, as the team could just push back his next outing if he needs just a bit of extra time to rest and monitor his shoulder. Even in the event of a clean MRI, however, it’s possible the Astros might err on the side of caution with a shoulder-related issue, and place Urquidy on the 15-day injured list as something of a preventative measure.
Houston’s quirky schedule could be a factor, as the Astros don’t play on any of the four Thursdays in May. This means that the club will need a fifth starter if Urquidy did require an IL stint, but for maybe just one turn through the rotation if Urquidy spent just the 15-day minimum on the injured list. Since Lance McCullers Jr. is still at least a few weeks away from returning from his own IL stint, the Astros could turn to any of Brandon Bielak, J.P. France, Forrest Whitley, or Sean Dubin at Triple-A. Bryan Garcia isn’t on the 40-man roster but he and Bielak are the only members of the Triple-A group with any MLB experience.
Urquidy hasn’t been too sharp over six starts this year, posting a 5.20 ERA over 27 2/3 innings. A lot of that damage came in a pair of rough outings against the Blue Jays and Rays, but Urquidy was on track in tonight’s game, holding the Phillies to two earned runs on three hits and a walk over his 5 1/3 frames. A below-average walk rate has been the biggest issue, as Urquidy had posted a very solid 5.2% walk rate over his first four MLB seasons. The righty has also been trying to make the sweeper a much bigger part of his arsenal, at the expense of a four-seamer was formally Uriquidy’s primary pitch — he has thrown his four-seamer 29.2% of the time and his sweeper 26.4% of the time this season, after throwing the four-seamer well over half the time from 2020-22.
Perhaps due to the Astros’ wealth of quality pitching, Urquidy has been a little overlooked during his time in Houston, though he has posted very solid numbers over his career. The right-hander had a 3.74 ERA over 342 regular-season innings from 2019-22, and a very similar 3.72 ERA in 36 1/3 career frames in the playoffs while working as both a starter and a reliever. Houston’s pitching depth meant that Urquidy was limited to one appearance (three scoreless innings in Game 3 of the World Series) during the Astros’ championship run last year, but he still earned a well-deserved ring for his contributions to the club’s season.
The Tigers’ Last Chance To Get Something From The Justin Verlander Trade
There once was a time when Justin Verlander had only played for the Tigers. He was drafted by them with the second overall pick in 2004 and then cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball in the years that followed. He twice signed contracts that extended the club’s control over his services, once in 2010 and another in 2013. That latter contract ran through his age-36 season and was signed while the club was one of the best in the league. They were fresh off a World Series appearance in 2012 and would eventually get to a four-year streak of winning the AL Central in 2014. It wouldn’t have been outlandish to expect him to be a Tiger for life.
However, the fortunes of the franchise changed in the years after that, as they slipped into the basement of the division in 2015. They bounced back with an 86-win showing in 2016 but still missed the playoffs, then were not doing so great again in 2017. It was decided that it was time to turn things over, with the Tigers making two huge deals at the waiver deadline that year. They first traded Justin Upton to the Angels and then Verlander to the Astros. The latter deal was Verlander, a player to be named later and cash for prospects Franklin Pérez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers. The PTBNL was later reported as outfielder Juan Ramirez.
It’s now been over five years since that franchise-altering pivot. The Astros went on to win their first World Series a few months after acquiring Verlander, though that title is now forever asterisked in the minds of many baseball fans due to the trashcan-banging scandal. But subsequent contracts kept Verlander in Houston through 2022 as the club continued to be among the best in the league. They made the ALCS in each of those seasons, making it to the World Series again in 2019 and 2021 before winning their second title last year.
As for the Tigers, they have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, continually rebuilding during that entire stretch. That 86-win showing in 2016 is still their last winning season. They’ve also reaped little from those future-focused moves back in 2017. Right-hander Grayson Long, who came over in the Upton deal, topped out at Double-A and retired in 2019. The PTBNL in the deal was later reported as Elvin Rodríguez, who made seven appearances with the Tigers last year but was outrighted at season’s end and is now with the Rays on a minor league deal.
As for the Verlander deal, Pérez was generally considered the headliner at the time as he was a highly-touted prospect then. Baseball America had him in the #54 slot of their top 100 at the start of 2017 and bumped him to #35 going into 2018. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit him badly, mostly in the shoulder. He was only able to throw 19 1/3 innings in the minors in 2018 and 7 2/3 in 2019. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and then shoulder surgery wiped out 2021 for Pérez. He was released by the Tigers and re-signed, eventually tossing 25 1/3 innings in the Complex League last year but with a 9.59 ERA. He appears to still be in the organization but it’s hard to count on him for anything now after so much missed development time. He’s 25 years old and has yet to crack Double-A, outside of a brief stint at that level prior to the trade.
Cameron was also a highly-touted young outfielder, having cracked BA’s top 100 list in 2016. Though he had slipped off by the time of the trade, he was still an exciting young player. He made his way to the big leagues but couldn’t do much with the opportunity. He got into 73 major league games over the past three years but hit just .201/.266/.330 and struck out in 31.6% of his plate appearances. He was put on waivers in November, getting claimed by the Orioles and subsequently outrighted.
That leaves Rogers as the last hope for the Tigers to salvage the deal in some way. Arguably seen as the least significant piece of the deal at the time, Rogers was Houston’s #20 prospect at Baseball America coming into 2017. The catcher hasn’t been able to provide much value to the Tigers so far, but that’s not really his fault. He required Tommy John surgery in September of 2021, which wiped out his entire 2022 season. Prior to that, he was showing some positive signs in a small sample. He got into 38 games in 2021 and hit six home runs. Despite striking out in 36.2% of his plate appearances, his .239/.306/.496 was above average, resulting in a 116 wRC+.
He’s now back from that long layoff and showing encouraging signs in a small sample again. His 28.3% strikeout rate this year is still high but it’s an improvement from his previous work. He’s also nearly doubled his walked rate from 8.7% in 2021 to 15.2% this year. His .237/.370/.447 batting line on the season amounts to a 135 wRC+.
This is a tiny sample of 46 plate appearances in 15 games and will surely change. However, Rogers doesn’t need to hit like a superstar to be valuable since he’s considered a strong defensive backstop. In his limited time in the big leagues, he has four Defensive Runs Saved. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him negative grades for his framing prior to the Tommy John but he’s in the positive range so far this year. He’s thrown out 16 of 39 attempted base stealers in his career, a 41% rate that’s well above average, though he’s nabbed just one of six this year.
Rogers’ career thus far is so limited that it’s hard to draw any meaningful conclusions. Thanks to the lost season, he has just 88 major league games under his belt despite now being 28 years old. But given his reputation as a strong defensive catcher, even something near league average offense would make him a useful contributor. He’s shown the potential to be more than that, hitting 12 home runs already in barely half a season of cumulative work. He’s yet to reach arbitration but is slated to get there this winter and is on pace to reach free agency after 2026.
It’s highly likely that the Verlander trade will eventually be seen as a big miss for the Tigers overall. Fans had to watch an iconic player win two rings elsewhere while the highly-touted young players they got in return couldn’t meet expectations and the team posted miserable results overall. But if Rogers can keep serving as a solid defender behind the plate who launches a ball over the wall every once in a while, he can keep it from going down as an utter disaster.
Latest On Jose Altuve
After undergoing thumb surgery in late March, Jose Altuve was estimated for roughly a two-month recovery period before he could resume baseball activities. However, Astros GM Dana Brown gave a positive update on Altuve today, telling The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link) that Altuve is “ahead of schedule” in his rehab. Altuve is showing “great movement” in his injured thumb, and Brown said the second baseman “will get an x-ray in 12 days or so to see how the thumb is healing, but [it] appears that it’s healing very well.”
If the x-rays are clean on Brown’s loose target date of May 5, that would seemingly imply that Altuve might be able to start baseball activities shortly thereafter. Some minor league rehab action would be necessary to get Altuve back up to full game readiness, but it all goes well, Altuve might be more in line for a return by closer to the middle of May than his initial early-June estimate.
It should be noted that the Astros placed Altuve on the 10-day injured list rather than the 60-day IL to begin the season, thus leaving the door open for Altuve to potentially return earlier than expected. A 60-day IL placement would have kept Altuve out until the very end of May, and even if Houston does eventually shift Altuve to the 60-day in the event of a setback or if he needs more ramp-up time, his 60-day clock would still have a retroactive start date of Opening Day.
The prospect of a quick Altuve return is great news for the Astros, who have still posted a respectable 12-10 record even without their longtime star (and also with Michael Brantley and Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined by injury). Mauricio Dubon has stepped into the everyday second base job in Altuve’s absence and hit .329/.350/.382 over 80 plate appearances, delivering a 108 wRC+ despite a lack of power. Dubon’s ability to hold the fort has been a nice relief for Houston, and answered some preseason concerns over whether or not the Astros were lacking in bench depth.
2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.
For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.
There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.
Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.
Position Players
- Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
- Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
- Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
- Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
- Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
- Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.
Pitchers
- Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
- Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
- Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
- Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
- Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
- Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
- Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
- Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
- Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
- Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.