- “I think bringing back [Justin] Verlander is probably going to go down as the Astros’ biggest move of the offseason,” The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes as part of a reader mailbag. The exception might be if a notable remaining free agent was open to the type of short-term, high-average-annual-value contract the Astros seemingly prefer, yet barring such a move, it doesn’t seem like Houston would pivot towards a longer-term deal. To that same end, this would seemingly indicate that the Astros won’t pursue Trevor Story or a reunion with Carlos Correa, and instead head into 2022 entrusting rookie Jeremy Pena with at least a share of the regular shortstop job. Though there’s some obvious risk involved, Kaplan notes that the Astros tried this same tactic last season when George Springer left in free agency, and the club found adequate in-house center field replacements in Myles Straw, Chas McCormick, and Jake Meyers (Houston even had enough depth at the position to deal Straw at the trade deadline). The Astros could acquire a lower-tier veteran shortstop to provide some extra backing for Pena and utilityman Aledmys Diaz.
Astros Rumors
Astros Announce Coaching Staff
The Astros announced the addition of minor league hitting coordinator Jason Kanzler to the big league staff in an unspecified coaching role. The 31-year-old, who spent three seasons in the Twins system as a player, has spent the past three years coaching Astros minor leaguers.
Otherwise, the bulk of Dusty Baker’s staff remains the same. Houston announced the returns of bench coach Joe Espada, hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, base coaches Omar Lopez and Gary Pettis, and quality assurance coach Dan Firova in the same positions. Espada, who has spent the past four seasons on the Astros coaching staff, interviewed with the Mets and A’s for their managerial vacancies this offseason but will return to Houston after those respective jobs went to Buck Showalter and Mark Kotsay.
It seems the role of pitching coach will be filled jointly by Josh Miller and Bill Murphy, last season’s bullpen coach and assistant pitching coach, respectively. Longtime Houston pitching coach Brent Strom stepped down at the end of the season, eventually taking on the same role with the Diamondbacks. At the time, Strom suggested the club should turn to Miller and Murphy as his replacements, and that’s the course of action the team will take. It’s theoretically possible Houston adds some additional help for the pitching staff — the team’s announcement didn’t explicitly state that the staff had been finalized — but it seems more likely Miller and Murphy will just take on the responsibilities Strom left behind.
In addition to the tinkering on the coaching staff, Houston announced a few front office hires. The Astros confirmed the previously-reported hiring of Sara Goodrum as director of player development. They also hired a pair of new assistant general managers. Former Angels director of baseball operations Andrew Ball — who had once worked alongside Astros general manager James Click in the Rays front office — and former Dodgers director of quantitative analysis Scott Powers will both join Pete Putila as AGM’s in Houston. The club also announced a handful of promotions within the scouting and player development departments.
Cameron Maybin Announces Retirement
Longtime major league outfielder Cameron Maybin announced his retirement this evening. The 34-year-old appeared in fifteen major league seasons, suiting up with ten different clubs between 2007-21. He spent the bulk of that time — four seasons apiece — with the Padres and Marlins.
“I’ve played this game since I was 4 years old,” Maybin wrote as part of his announcement, the full text of which is available on Twitter. “Three decades later, my love for baseball is only matched by the love I have for the family that’s supported me every step of the way. … Although my journey as a professional baseball player ends here with the announcement of my retirement, my work in this game is just getting started. I’m excited for what lies ahead, including my work with the Players Alliance in our effort to provide access and opportunity for the next generation of Black ballplayers.”
Maybin was a first-round pick back in 2005, selected tenth overall by the Detroit Tigers. At just 19 years old, Maybin made quick work of his minor league competition and drew praise from a number of publications. Baseball America regularly ranked the speedy outfielder among the top ten prospects in the game, doing so from 2007 until he exhausted prospect eligibility in 2009.
Though he made his Major League debut for the Tigers in 2007, a franchise-altering trade sent Maybin, along with a young Andrew Miller and others, to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Irregular playing time but continued minor league dominance made Maybin a target of another trade just a few years later, when the Padres acquired him to be their starting center fielder for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.
San Diego took well to their new center fielder, as Maybin broke out with a 40-steal, 103 OPS+ showing in his first year on the West Coast. That performance, combined with Maybin’s stellar glove up the middle, resulted in a 5-year $25MM extension before the 2012 season. Before the contract’s expiration, Maybin was dealt in yet another high-profile trade. In this deal, new Padres general manager A.J. Preller made his presence felt by acquiring closer Craig Kimbrel in an Opening Day-beating deal with the Braves.
After a year in Atlanta, Maybin bounced around between eight teams, providing clubs with speed and modest offense in the outfield and off the bench. During this stretch, Maybin had a resurgent year when he reunited with the Tigers in 2016, sporting a 118 OPS+ in 94 games. He pushed his offense to new heights in 2019, with a strong .285/.364/.494 (127 OPS+) showing in 82 games for an injury-ravaged Yankees team.
Maybin was set to look for 2022 opportunities as a veteran depth option for clubs. Instead, he’ll eschew a complicated free agent market and retire a career .254/.323/.374 hitter with 187 steals.
MLBTR congratulates Maybin on an excellent career, and wishes him the best of luck with his Players Alliance endeavors and elsewhere.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022. With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.
This list is by no means exhaustive. Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact. It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout. While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.
Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt). However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen. It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts. Onto the list…
Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons. In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure. Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic. With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.
Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign. It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).
Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes. Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans. Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.
Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March. The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal. Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.
Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee. With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon. The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season. For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns. There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.
Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023. It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild. However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames. Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.
Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023. Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles. There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal). If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.
Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options. While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015. There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.
Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.” This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021. Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.
Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish. Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations. The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.
Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team. Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known. Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized. The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.
Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023. An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars. Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year. There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim. With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.
Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019. If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year. Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.
Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign. If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining. While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning. One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise. Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.
Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end. New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout. Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.
Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term. That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement. The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job. Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.
Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year. The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season. If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.
White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length. Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series. Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades. Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.
Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records. Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change. It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason. Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.
Marlins Hire Roman Ocumarez As International Director
- The Marlins have hired Roman Ocumarez as the team’s new international director, according to ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Twitter link). Ocumarez comes to Miami from the Astros, where he worked as a scout and most recently as an international scouting supervisor. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are just a few of the notable signings credited to Ocumarez, with that particular trio already providing a huge return on the Astros’ total investment of $40K in bonus money. The Marlins will look for Ocumarez to continue that success at finding hidden gems, and carrying on the Marlins’ own history of finding and developing quality international prospects.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
The Astros are coming off their third pennant in the past five years, but they came up a couple games shy of a World Series title. As they set their sights on returning to the Fall Classic in 2022, they’ve retained their skipper and a future Hall of Fame starter. Looming over the entire winter, though: the potential departure of their franchise shortstop.
Guaranteed Contracts
- José Altuve, 2B: $87MM through 2024
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $85MM through 2026
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $74MM through 2024
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $25MM through 2022 (deal contains a $25MM player option for 2023 conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched in 2022)
- Héctor Neris, RHP: $17MM through 2023 (includes buyout of $8.5MM club option for 2024)
- Jake Odorizzi, RHP: $16.5MM through 2023 (Odorizzi can opt out of final year and $6.5MM after 2022 season)
- Michael Brantley, LF: $16MM through 2022
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $10MM through 2022
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $8MM through 2022
- Pedro Báez, RHP: $7.5MM through 2022 (includes buyout of $7.5MM club option for 2023)
- Martín Maldonado, C: $5MM through 2022 (contract also contains $5MM vesting option for 2023)
- Jason Castro, C: $4.25MM through 2022
Total 2022 commitments: $151.85MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Aledmys Díaz – $4.0MM
- Framber Valdez – $3.2MM
- Rafael Montero – $3.1MM
- Ryne Stanek – $2.1MM
- Phil Maton – $1.4MM
- Josh James – $700K
Option Decisions
- Exercised $8MM club option on Yuli Gurriel
Free Agents
The Astros came up a couple games short of a World Series title, but they kicked off their offseason by trying to preserve continuity. Within the first few days, Houston signed manager Dusty Baker to a one-year extension. The accomplished skipper will be back for a third year at the helm, although he’ll be without highly-regarded pitching coach Brent Strom, who left the organization to take the same role with the Diamondbacks.
While a World Series title continues to elude the highly respected Baker, there’s little question he’s been an important stabilizing force over his first two years. The veteran skipper was hired to replace A.J. Hinch over the 2019-20 offseason amidst the self-inflicted organizational tumult due to the sign-stealing scandal. Yet Baker has stepped in and guided the Astros as far as the AL Championship Series in both seasons, and agreeing to an extension seemed like a fairly easy call for general manager James Click and the front office.
Equally obvious was the decision to bring back Yuli Gurriel via an $8MM club option. He’s coming off a batting title and will reprise his role as the regular first baseman. Not long after exercising Gurriel’s option, Houston made a bolder strike. Within an hour of rejecting the team’s $18.4MM qualifying offer, Justin Verlander agreed to re-sign on a $25MM guarantee that contains a matching player option for the following season, conditional on reaching 130 innings pitched next season.
It’s a heavy investment for a pitcher coming off two seasons lost to Tommy John surgery, yet it goes without saying that Verlander’s a unique case. He was a Cy Young award winner during his last healthy season, and there aren’t more than a handful of pitchers teams would rather run out in the first game of a postseason series than peak Verlander. Whether he can regain that form in his age-39 campaign remains to be seen, but he’ll slot into the top of the starting staff.
Even sans Verlander, Houston had an impressive rotation. Yet it now looks like one of the game’s best, as he’ll be followed by Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi and perhaps Cristian Javier. That’s an enviable combination of young talent and depth, one that could result in a trade coming out of the transactions freeze. Rival clubs would surely jump at the opportunity to acquire a controllable young starter like Garcia or Valdez, yet it’d be a surprise if the Astros entertained that kind of arrangement.
An Odorizzi deal, on the other hand, seems very possible. The veteran hurler publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the team’s seeming reluctance to let him work through opposing lineups three times during his starts. Odorizzi, Baker and Click all downplayed the possibility of that affecting the parties’ long-term relationship, but a deal arguably makes sense even independent of personal considerations. After all, there’s a case that Odorizzi should slot sixth or seventh among the Astros’ deep starting mix, but he’d be a definitive upgrade to plenty of other clubs’ rotations.
Trading the veteran righty should clear most or all of his $8MM salary for 2022 off the books, which could give the Astros flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster. There aren’t many weak points, but adding to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in 2021 could be a target area. Houston’s already taken one step in that regard this winter, signing former Phillies closer Héctor Neris to a two-year guarantee. Yet they’ve also seen Kendall Graveman, Yimi García and Brooks Raley walk in free agency, and solidifying the bridge to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly could be of interest.
A southpaw to pair with Blake Taylor could be particularly helpful. The free agent crop of lefty relievers is thin, but Andrew Chafin and Tony Watson are among the generally reliable veterans coming off good years who remain on the market. On the trade front, perhaps the Twins would be willing to make Taylor Rogers available.
The Astros’ early offseason activity has primarily revolved around the pitching staff, yet nothing hangs over the offseason more than the shortstop situation. Carlos Correa is the top free agent on the market, and the possibility of the Astros losing one of their franchise players looms large. Houston owner Jim Crane is reportedly disinclined to go beyond a six-year guarantee in the Correa pursuit. With the two-time All-Star having a strong case for a deal that runs into the next decade, it seems increasingly likely he’ll wind up elsewhere in the weeks following the lockout.
If Correa does walk, how does Houston approach the position? They could pivot to the other star free agent shortstop available, Trevor Story. The former Rockie might land a contract in the five-year or six-year range with which Crane seems to be more comfortable, and the Astros expressed some interest in Story before the transactions freeze. Yet Story’s coming off his worst offensive showing in four years, and it remains to be seen if the Astros want to commit a nine-figure investment to another infielder with José Altuve and Alex Bregman each slated to earn at least $29MM annually between 2023-24.
That’s particularly true given the presence of top prospect Jeremy Peña. A highly-regarded defensive shortstop, Peña missed most of the 2021 campaign recovering from wrist surgery. He returned late in the year and hit well over two months at Triple-A before being added to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. Turning shortstop over to Peña right out of the gate might be too risky for a win-now club, but it’s possible the organization is counting on him to seize the job by the middle of the year.
If that’s the case, then a stopgap option might be preferable. Utilityman Aledmys Díaz could be in consideration for such a role, although he’s not an ideal fit at the position defensively. A run at a glove-first shortstop to split time with Díaz could make some sense. In such a scenario, the superior defender could get the bulk of the playing time behind ground-ball specialists like Valdez and McCullers while Díaz plays behind a fly-ball oriented pitcher in the Urquidy or Garcia mold. Andrelton Simmons, probably the best defensive shortstop of this generation, is available in free agency and could likely be had for a low-cost, one-year deal. On the trade market, players like Nick Ahmed, Paul DeJong and Isiah Kiner-Falefa might all be made available.
The rest of the starting lineup is pretty well set. Gurriel, Altuve and Bregman will have the remainder of the infield locked down. Martín Maldonado and Jason Castro are back to share the catching duties. Michael Brantley will play left field regularly, so long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker is established in the other corner. Yordan Álvarez is the designated hitter, and he’s capable of spelling Brantley in left on occasion to give the 34-year-old a breather.
There’s an outside chance of Houston making a splash in center field. They’ve been linked to stars there in trade over the past few months, and it’s possible they inquire about players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds coming out of the lockout. It seems unlikely either the Orioles or Pirates wind up pulling the trigger on that kind of deal, though, and the free agent center field market is completely barren.
Barring a surprise trade strike for a star, José Siri and Chas McCormick seem likely to hold down center, with Jake Meyers also in the mix whenever he’s fully recovered from shoulder surgery. None of those players are locks to provide above-average production, but they all played well as rookies in 2021. Relying on that group shouldn’t be all that problematic, and the Astros can reevaluate midseason if all three players regress.
Aside from shortstop, the Astros’ position player group might be the most stable around the league. There’s virtually no other uncertainty other than how to replace (or retain) Correa. Perhaps a right-handed hitting corner outfielder/DH could be of interest, as each of Brantley, Tucker and Álvarez hit left-handed. Yet all three players are going to be in the lineup on most days anyhow, so that’d be more of a luxury buy than anything else.
Even facing the possibility of Correa walking, the Astros will go into 2022 with a quality roster. They’re returning the bulk of a lineup that was the league’s most productive by measure of wRC+ this past season. The starting staff is strong enough they could consider trading from the depth. The bullpen may be the comparative weak point on the roster, but one more addition — particularly from the left side — could tie that group together nicely.
There should be opportunity for Click and his staff to add, even if dropping $300MM+ on Correa may not be in the cards. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects the club’s 2022 payroll at $170MM, around $15MM – $20MM below where it sat heading into 2021. Houston narrowly ducked below the luxury tax threshold this year as well, so it’s possible they’ll be willing to exceed that figure (wherever it lands in the next CBA) after resetting their tax bracket to avoid escalating penalties.
The Astros aren’t operating in a vacuum. While the A’s look likely to take a step back, the other three teams in the AL West have been among the most active this offseason. The Rangers probably aren’t yet serious threats, but the Mariners and Angels could push towards the top of the division if everything goes well.
Those clubs will have their work cut out for them knocking the Astros from their perch, though, even after accounting for the potential loss of Correa. His departure would certainly make them worse, but there’s so much talent on the roster that the window’s in no danger of closing completely. Regardless of what they do over the coming months, Houston should enter 2022 as one of the top contenders in the American League.
Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents
Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order. For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.
Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings. First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.
For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks. The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.
- Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary. The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+. Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category. If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
- Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds. The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere. The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town. The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins). For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
- Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round. Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.
Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…
- Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021. As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
- Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021. For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection. For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft. Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
- Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents. Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
- Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
Justin Verlander’s 2023 Player Option Reportedly Conditional On Reaching Innings Threshold
Justin Verlander’s deal to return to the Astros became official this week. The contract guarantees him a $25MM salary in 2022 and reportedly contains a matching $25MM player option for the 2023 season. However, the Associated Press reports that Verlander’s option is conditional on him reaching 130 innings pitched next season.
Verlander should have a strong chance of reaching that tally. He’s no doubt locked into the Astros’ rotation, and he eclipsed 130 frames every year between 2006-19. The workhorse shattered that mark in every year other than 2015, surpassing 200 frames on twelve separate occasions. So long as he remains healthy, Verlander shouldn’t have any problem getting to 130 innings and at least giving himself the option of picking up some extra financial security.
That health caveat is an important one for any pitcher, though, and that’s particularly true in Verlander’s case. He’s thrown just six innings over the past two seasons on account of a 2020 elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Verlander’s expected to be at full strength to start next year, and the Houston front office was clearly confident enough in his health to put a $25MM salary on the table. Yet requiring an innings threshold to vest the 2023 player option affords the team some cover in case the 38-year-old Verlander (39 in February) suffers another injury next season.
The terms of Verlander’s deal were reportedly agreed upon in mid-November, but the signing wasn’t finalized until this week. Some observers may have wondered whether concerns about Verlander’s surgically-repaired elbow could’ve been the cause for the delay, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Buster Olney of ESPN wrote this week that the lag between the reported agreement and the finalization of the deal was due to some sort of administrative hold-up on the part of Major League Baseball.
Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market
Carlos Correa entered the offseason as the top name on most free-agent rankings — including here at MLBTR — and remains unsigned as MLB and the MLBPA navigate a lockout that certainly doesn’t look anywhere near a resolution. There’s been plenty of discussion and speculation as to where he’ll ultimately land, but ESPN’s Buster Olney sheds some light on interest that Correa has already received, reporting that the Tigers put forth a 10-year, $275MM offer at one point this winter.
Presumably, that offer came before Detroit signed Javier Baez at six years and $140MM, although it’s at least possible to see how Detroit could make room for both players on the roster and payroll alike. It’s a notable offer, to be sure, but it’s also $66MM shy of what Francisco Lindor received from the Mets, $50MM shy of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers and a ways south of the range many pundits projected heading into free agency.
The reported Detroit offer also further underlines that the Astros’ recent offers to Correa are well shy of meeting the mark. Houston was said to have put forth an offer of five years and $160MM just prior to free agency, but that seemed like a nonstarter from the jump. Olney writes that Astros owner Jim Crane has told colleagues that he won’t make an offer of more than six years in length, which only reinforces the expectation that Correa is likely to sign with a new team for the 2022 season.
Of course, the burning question for most MLB fans and onlookers is a simple one: “where?” The Rangers nabbing a pair of high-end shortstops (Seager and Marcus Semien), on the surface, should have strengthened Correa’s market. Two of his top competitors signing with the same team should have kept another spot open elsewhere. However, the Tigers have signed Baez to that aforementioned six-year deal, and the Yankees — at least according to multiple pre-lockout reports — weren’t interested in the top-of-the-market shortstops, instead preferring shorter-term options to serve as a bridge to prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.
It remains plausible that the Yankees and several other big-market teams will more aggressively jump into the market post-lockout, once a (presumably) new luxury-tax threshold is set in stone. Olney hears from some agents who believe the Yankees and Dodgers could engage in the market for stars like Correa or Trevor Story once the forthcoming luxury tax structure is known. Those players’ representatives are surely hoping that will be the case, although even if the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. choose to eschew a mega-deal, that shouldn’t necessarily leave Correa out in the cold.
Houston’s interest will remain in place, barring a signing of Story or the acquisition of another notable infielder. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported earlier this month that each of the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves have also been in contact with Correa’s representatives at some point during the offseason. When those clubs reached out and the extent of each respective team’s interest isn’t clear, but it stands to reason at least some of that group will reengage with Correa’s reps whenever the transaction freeze ends.
That’s a nice “safety net” (for lack of a better term), and as the Braves’ and Cubs’ reported interest reflects, unexpected suitors tend to emerge for players at the top of the market. Few gave the Padres legitimate consideration when Manny Machado hit the market following the 2018 season, for instance. Broadly speaking, the top free agent each winter tends to get paid, particularly when said player is atypically young to reach the market — as is the case with the 27-year-old Correa. It’d be entirely unsurprising for other unexpected teams to join the bidding, viewing Correa as a rather unique opportunity to add an All-Star-caliber player who remains squarely in his prime.
Correa is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having hit .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs across 640 plate appearances. That offensive production was 34 points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, and it came over Correa’s biggest workload since 2016. Advanced defensive metrics were also particularly high on his work on the other side of the ball, for which he received his first Gold Glove award en route to a fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting.
Mets Begin Second Round Of Managerial Interviews With Three Finalists
Dec. 14: The Mets will begin the second round of interviews today, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post.
Dec. 12, 4:17pm: Matt Quatraro joins Showalter and Espada as finalists, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).
3:55pm: The Mets’ managerial search has moved on to the next stage, with Buck Showalter and Joe Espada making up the field of known final candidates, as per Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. It isn’t known if a third candidate could also still be in the mix, or if Showalter and Espada are the only two who will now interview with Mets owner Steve Cohen.
There was no surprise over Showalter’s inclusion, and there is an increasing expectation that the veteran skipper will ultimately be the Mets’ choice. As SNY’s Andy Martino puts it, a Showalter hiring “feels almost inevitable,” and “folks in the industry are convinced Showalter is getting the job unless something goes horribly wrong in final stages.”
While the 65-year-old Showalter has 20 years of managerial experience, the 46-year-old Espada has never been a manager at the big league level, though he has a long resume as a coach. Working for the last four years as the Astros’ bench coach, Espada also has seven previous seasons of experience as a third base coach with the Yankees and Marlins, as well as stints as a special assistant to Yankees GM Brian Cashman and as a coach and coordinator in the Marlins’ farm system.
Espada has been a popular managerial candidate in recent years, and if Showalter does end up as New York’s next manager, it would represent another near-miss for the Astros coach. Espada has been previously linked to managerial openings with the Blue Jays, Giants, Angels, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, and Rangers, and he reportedly came close to being hired by the Giants before they decided on Gabe Kapler. Should the Mets pass on Espada, another opportunity might come quickly, as Espada has also recently spoken with the Athletics about their current managerial vacancy.
If Showalter and Espada are indeed the Mets’ final two, it is somewhat symbolic of how the club has weighed both experienced dugout voices and first-time candidates throughout their search. Besides Showalter, the Mets also interviewed former Tigers/Angels manager Brad Ausmus and former A’s manager Bob Geren. On the less-experienced side of the coin, the Mets also spoke with Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, and they looked to speak with Pirates bench coach Don Kelly before Kelly took himself out of consideration.
