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Krall: Reds “Don’t Plan To Bring [Votto] Back As Of Now”

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Joey Votto has spent his entire professional career with the Reds organization, dating back to his second-round selection in the 2002 MLB draft and his Major League debut in 2007. If he hopes to suit up for an 18th MLB campaign, however, it seems increasingly likely it’ll be with a new team. Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall all but confirmed as much when asked by season-ticket holders whether Votto would return (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). “We don’t plan to bring him back as of now,” Krall candidly replied.

A crowded Reds infield mix has already pushed jack-of-all-trades Spencer Steer to left field. Cincinnati deepened its wealth of infield talent earlier in the winter, signing third baseman Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM pact. He joins Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as options around the infield (with Steer on-hand in the event that injuries necessitate a move back onto the dirt). That glut of names already made Votto a long shot to return, but it’s still uncommon for any executive to comment directly on an unsigned player’s fit with his or her club (or in this case, the lack thereof).

Votto, 40, has already stated he hopes to continue his career. The six-time All-Star and former National League MVP spoke with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic earlier in the offseason and discussed his struggles while playing through a shoulder injury that required surgery in 2022 and continued to cause him trouble in 2023.  Votto opened the 2023 season on the injured list, had a productive 41-game stint upon being activated, but was placed back on the injured list in August and wilted upon his return to the roster.

It’s easy to look at Votto’s overall .202/.314/.433 slash and be underwhelmed, but a poor showing post-IL stint severely weighed down his production. Votto went hitless in 18 plate appearances before landing on the injured list, and he batted just .211/.362/.316 in 47 trips to the plate following his return. Overall, his season ended with a .164/.292/.236 swoon in 65 plate appearances.

Any team signing Votto will be hoping for better health. Doing so will require minimal financial risk in all likelihood, and Votto showed as recently as the 2021 season — his age-37 campaign — that he could produce far better than most hitters at this stage of their careers. That season saw him turn in an excellent .266/.375/.563 batting line and club 36 home runs, just one big fly shy of his career-high 37 set back in 2010. A rebound to that level of production at age 40 and with a recent shoulder surgery on his medical record might not be particularly feasible, but landing somewhere in the middle of his ’21 and his ’22-’23 output would still make Votto an above-average performer; when combining that 2021 production and his 2022-23 struggles, Votto still checks in with a .233/.344/.471 batting line (116 wRC+).

It’s been a quiet offseason with regard to Votto. The Blue Jays, as they have been for several years, have been tied to the Toronto native. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported recently that three teams were currently having some level of talks with the career .294/.409/.511 hitter.

There’s indeed a logical fit on the Jays, who saw Brandon Belt become a free agent at season’s end, have a heavily right-handed lineup. Votto could share time at first base with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and see plenty of time as the designated hitter, where the Blue Jays currently don’t have a clear regular option. Other teams known to be on the lookout for help at first base and/or designated hitter include the D-backs, Twins, Padres and Marlins (to name a few). Injuries and/or trades within the Reds’ current infield corps could potentially clear a path back to Great American Ball Park, but for now Krall made clear that such an arrangement isn’t in the cards.

Given the likely low cost of signing Votto, it’s easy enough to speculate on him as a fit with upwards of half the league. Interest figures to be quite a bit more limited than that, given his age and recent struggles, but he represents a relatively low-risk signing who’s still only a couple years removed from a standout showing at the plate.

Alex Blandino Attempting To Become Knuckleballer

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Infielder Alex Blandino signed a minor league deal with the Reds back in November but he will reportedly be attempting a move to the mound. Per Fernando Rayo of 8 Deportivo out of Nicaragua, the CAA client will be trying to become a knuckleballer (Links to Spanish-language X posts) and will report to Double-A. MLBTR has confirmed the report with the note that Blandino does not have an invite to major league camp at this time.

Blandino, 31, has 135 games of major league experience, which all came with the Reds over the 2018-2021 period. He played all four infield positions and the outfield corners, having hit .226/.339/.291 in 279 plate appearances. He played in the minors in 2022 with the Giants and Mariners but didn’t crack the majors. He played for Nicaragua during the 2023 World Baseball Classic in the spring but then didn’t sign elsewhere until the minor league deal with the Reds in November.

The move to the mound doesn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he has made five major league appearances as a pitcher. Those appearances even included a knuckleball, as highlighted here by this post on X by Pitching Ninja from 2018. In a 2021 appearance, Bladino’s fastball hit 90 mph, as relayed by Cut4 on X.

Those are a couple of intriguing elements that could perhaps give Blandino a better path back to the majors than as a light-hitting utility infielder. Knuckleballers are a unique breed and don’t always need strong velocity to succeed, but Blandino’s ability to hit 90 mph doesn’t hurt. But on the other hand, it’s unclear if he could maintain that kind of velocity while pitching on a regular basis over a full season.

For the Reds, there’s no harm in letting Blandino take a shot and see what happens. For fans of the knuckleball, it will be an exciting development to watch, especially with the pitch having largely disappeared from the majors since R.A. Dickey’s retirement.

Reds Sign Tyler Gilbert To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed left-handed pitcher Tyler Gilbert to a minor league contract, the team announced. The deal comes with an invitation to major league Spring Training. The All Bases Covered client will be 30 years old in 2024.

Drafted by the Phillies in 2015, Gilbert was traded to the Dodgers ahead of the 2020 season and selected by the Diamondbacks the following winter in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He made his debut with Arizona in 2021 and is best known for throwing a no-hitter during his first MLB start and fourth big league appearance. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to live up to that impossibly high standard throughout the rest of his career. He has shuttled back and forth between the majors and Triple-A over the past three years, while also making a couple of trips to the injured list with trouble in his pitching elbow. Overall, he tossed 91 2/3 innings for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.32 ERA and 4.78 SIERA in 13 starts and 15 relief appearances.

The lefty spent most of his 2023 campaign pitching out of the bullpen, working as a primary reliever for the first time since his 2019 season in the Phillies organization. While he gave up 10 runs on 21 hits in 17 1/3 big league innings, his underlying numbers were much more promising. Gilbert, one of the slowest-throwing arms in the game in 2021 and ’22, threw all his pitches with an extra 2-4 mph. Opposing batters swung and missed more often at almost all of his offerings, and he nearly doubled his strikeout rate from 2022. Consequently, his 3.32 SIERA was a vast improvement over his 5.17 figure from the previous two seasons. Moreover, while his 11 MLB appearances make for a tiny sample, he boasted a near-identical strikeout rate in 74 2/3 innings at Triple-A.

The Reds have already added plenty of bullpen arms this winter, signing Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter, re-signing Buck Farmer, and scooping up Justin Bruihl and Brooks Kriske on minor league deals. They also added Nick Martinez to the rotation, although his experience as both a starter and reliever surely increased his appeal. Still, there is no such thing as too much bullpen depth. Nor is there such thing as too much starting pitching depth, for that matter, and given the fact that the injury-prone Frankie Montas is the only starter on the team with a full, qualified season under his belt, Gilbert’s experience as a starter surely increased his appeal, too.

Gilbert has one option year remaining.

Rangers Acquire Daniel Duarte From Reds

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The Rangers acquired right-hander Daniel Duarte from the Reds, per announcements from both clubs. The Reds, who designated Duarte for assignment on the weekend, will receive cash considerations in return. The Rangers now have a full 40-man roster.

Duarte, 27, got a cup-of-coffee debut with the Reds in 2022, pitching 2 2/3 innings. He got a more sizable chunk of big league time last year, tossing 31 2/3 frames. In those two seasons combined, he has a 4.19 earned run average, though with less-impressive peripherals. His 46.5% ground ball rate is strong but his 16.7% strikeout rate and 15.3% walk rate are both a few ticks worse than league average. His .221 batting average on balls in play and 79.8% strand rate are both on the lucky side of par and seem to have helped him keep runs from scoring, which is why his 6.16 FIP and 5.68 SIERA are less shiny than his ERA.

The righty has generally done a decent job punching out Triple-A hitters, but has also walked them at a high clip. In 46 2/3 innings at Triple-A over the past three seasons, he has struck out 26.8% of hitters that have come to the plate and gotten a decent amount of ground balls, but has also sent 11.6% of opponents to first via base on balls, as well as hitting 3.5% of them with a pitch.

Despite the control issues, the Rangers are likely enticed by the combination of strikeouts and ground balls. Duarte has an option remaining and won’t need to be guaranteed a spot on the active roster. He’s also at least two years away from qualifying for arbitration and comes with five potential years of club control, while a season spent largely on optionable assignment could push that into the future by another year.

Despite winning the World Series last year, the bullpen was an obvious weak spot for the Rangers. Since hoisting the trophy, they lost Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton to free agency. They signed Kirby Yates as their most significant upgrade to date and may not be able to top that. The payroll may not have a ton of space due to uncertainty around the broadcast revenues. The club has given minor league deals to pitchers like Shane Greene, Diego Castillo, Austin Pruitt, Jonathan Holder and Jesús Tinoco.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/24

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January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. While the vast majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but the top signees will ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.

Ben Badler of Baseball America and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com are among those covering the activity. At MLBTR, we’ll highlight a few of the top signees. Both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline provide scouting reports and bonus information on more of the highly-regarded prospects. They’re each worth full reads for those interested in the class.

Note: MLB Pipeline ranks the class on talent. Baseball America orders the players by bonus amount, not on evaluations of the players’ ability. Since international amateurs are so young and tend to agree to their bonuses well in advance of signing day, a player’s profile can change significantly between the time they reach agreement on a bonus and the official opening of the window.

Some of the top names (ordered by signing bonus):

  • Jose Perdomo, SS, Braves: A right-handed hitting infielder from Venezuela, Perdomo leads the class with a $5MM signing bonus. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the #3 prospect in the group. He’s regarded as a polished hitter with a good chance to stick somewhere on the infield. Badler notes (on X) that the $5MM bonus is the largest ever for a Venezuelan player.
  • Leodalis De Vries, SS, Padres: De Vries lands the second-highest bonus at $4.2MM. Sanchez and Badler each indicate he’s now regarded as the most talented prospect in this year’s class. It’s the second straight year in which San Diego landed the #1 player in the international period after last year’s signing of catcher Ethan Salas. De Vries, a native of the Dominican Republic, is a 6’1″ switch-hitter. He draws praise for a well-rounded offensive profile with power potential and a chance to stick at shortstop.
  • Fernando Cruz, SS, Cubs: A $4MM signee out of the Dominican Republic, Cruz is a 5’11” infielder. Evaluators praise his bat speed and all-fields power potential. He draws attention for his athleticism and defensive toolset at shortstop. MLB Pipeline notes he has an aggressive offensive approach, while BA indicates some scouts have expressed concern about the length in his swing. MLB Pipeline ranks Cruz as the #4 talent in the class.
  • Dawel Joseph, SS, Mariners: Signed for $3MM from the Dominican Republic, Joseph is a right-handed hitter with a 6’2″ frame. That build leads to ample raw power projection. BA and Pipeline each indicate that Joseph has lost some of his formerly elite speed as he has grown, although he still has a shot to play somewhere up the middle. Both outlets suggest he sports more of a power-over-hit offensive profile.

A few others with a noteworthy signing figure and/or placement on MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings:

  • Yovanny Rodriguez, C, Mets: $2.85MM signing bonus, Venezuela native, MLB Pipeline’s #6 prospect
  • Victor Hurtado, OF Nationals: $2.7MM-2.8MM signing bonus*, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #20 prospect
  • Adolfo Sanchez, OF, Reds: $2.7MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #5 prospect
  • Joswa Lugo, SS, Angels: $2.3MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #37 prospect
  • Yandel Ricardo, SS, Royals: #9 on BA’s bonus board (specific number unreported), Cuba native, MLB Pipeline’s #16 prospect
  • Emil Morales, SS, Dodgers: #10 on BA’s bonus board (specific number unreported), Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #14 prospect
  • Paulino Santana, OF, Rangers: $1.3MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #2 prospect

* BA reports Hurtado’s bonus at $2.7MM, while MLB.com pegs it at $2.8MM

NL Notes: Padres, Phillies, India

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The Padres saw four members of their rotation mix department for free agency back in November, led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Along with their ace southpaw, San Diego parted ways with right-handers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez, each of whom has found a new club. At least in the case of Lugo, however, it appears San Diego hoped to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made a four-year offer to Lugo before he landed in Kansas City on a three-year, $45MM deal last month. Lin adds that while San Diego was willing to beat the Royals’ offer in terms of years, their offer came at a lower average annual value than that of Kansas City.

That the Padres would want to reunite with Lugo is hardly a surprise given his successful 2023 with the club. After spending his entire career with the Mets prior to hitting free agency last winter, Lugo signed on with San Diego on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. After spending most of his time in Queens as a reliever, Lugo stepped into the Padres’ rotation and made 26 starts for the club last year with a 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+) and 3.83 FIP in 146 1/3 innings of work. San Diego entered the winter with just Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish locked into the 2024 rotation, and the return of Lugo would have greatly improved the club’s rotation even after the Padres managed to add Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to their Opening Day rotation mix in the Juan Soto trade.

Ultimately, of course, Lugo chose to head to Kansas City. Still, that the Padres felt they had enough room in the budget to make an offer to Lugo could be a positive sign for the club’s ability to fill the remaining holes on their roster before Opening Day. Adding at least one more starter to slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside King figures to be a priority for the Padres, particularly after they’ve addressed the bullpen by landing Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go in recent weeks. Beyond the rotation, the club’s lineup is in dire need of an overhaul after the club parted ways with Soto, Trent Grisham, and Matt Carpenter in trade this offseason. A left-handed bat such as Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario would make plenty of sense to occupy either left field or DH, and the club was also recently reported as being among the teams interested in center fielder Michael A. Taylor.

More from around the National League…

  • As the Phillies look to augment their club with pitching and outfield depth this winter, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that they’ve received interest in a package of shortstop prospect Bryan Rincon and catching prospect Eduardo Tait from at least three clubs, though Philadelphia has rebuffed the advances of rival clubs on the duo to this point. Rincon, in February, was a 14th-round pick by the Phillies in the 2022 draft and sports strong defense along with a switch-hitting bat and a 14.8% walk rate for his career in the minor leagues against a strikeout rate of just 17.8%. Tait, meanwhile, signed with the Phillies out of Panama last year and slashed an impressive .333/.400/.517 during his first taste of affiliated ball in the Dominican Summer League.
  • Among the 22 arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to a contract with his club for the 2024 season by yesterday’s deadline was Reds second baseman Jonathan India, who filed at $4MM against the club’s $3.2MM counteroffer. Reds GM Nick Krall recently spoke regarding the dispute between player and club, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. As relayed by Wittenmyer, Krall emphasized that he doesn’t consider the impending arbitration hearing to be “adversarial” and explained the $800K gap in negotiations by saying that there was a “fundamental issue” between the sides that prevented the deal from getting done. Clubs often take strict stances in arbitration negotiations because both settlements and arbitration decisions can be used as precedent for salaries not for the player in question as he advances through the arbitration process but also by future players around the league. That at times leads to tension between players and their clubs, with right-hander Corbin Burnes’s spat with the Brewers last year standing as a recent example.

Reds Designate Daniel Duarte For Assignment

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The Reds announced that right-hander Daniel Duarte has been designated for assignment.  The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Brent Suter, whose one-year deal with Cincinnati is now official.

Duarte spent most of the 2022 season battling elbow problems, but he still managed to make his big league debut by tossing 2 2/3 innings over three appearances with the Reds that year.  With better health this past season, Duarte split the year between the big leagues (31 2/3 innings) and Triple-A Louisville (35 innings) before going on the Major League injured list in late September due to shoulder tightness.

The results were good on the whole for Duarte in 2023, as he had a 3.34 ERA in the minors and a 3.69 ERA during his time in Cincinnati.  However, control has been an issue for the righty over the last seasons, as he had an 11.3% walk rate at Lousiville and then a 14.7% walk rate in the big leagues.  Duarte had a respectable 25.8% strikeout rate in the minors but struck out only 16.9% of Major League batters, and he had almost as many walks (20) as strikeouts (23).

Over three years with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, Duarte had a 4.05 ERA, 26.76% strikeout rate, and a 11.61% walk rate.  While respectable numbers, they also didn’t stand out to the extent that the Reds felt compelled to keep Duarte on their 40-man, and he now might be a candidate to be claimed by another team looking for bullpen depth.  If he clears waivers, Cincinnati might opt to keep Duarte on hand as a relief option who can be frequently shuttled up and down from the minors as circumstances warrant.

Reds To Sign Brent Suter

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The Reds are in agreement with left-hander Brent Suter on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a $3MM guarantee that takes the form of a $2.5MM salary in 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for ’25. The deal is still pending a physical for the Diamond Sports Management client. Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once the contract is finalized.

It’s the latest move in a pitching-heavy offseason. The Reds have added Frankie Montas to the rotation and Emilio Pagán to the late innings. Swingman Nick Martinez could contribute in either role. Suter seems ticketed for the bullpen, although he reportedly drew some interest as a starting pitcher this winter.

The 34-year-old has spent the past half-decade in relief. Suter saw some work out of the rotation early in his career with the Brewers. Despite finding a decent amount of success, he was pushed to the bullpen by 2019 as Milwaukee graduated pitchers with higher caliber stuff.

While Suter isn’t a prototypical power reliever, he has been a valuable bullpen piece. The Harvard product has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons. Suter’s profile has been built around strong control and excellent contact suppression. He has posted better than average ground-ball rates over the past five seasons and is consistently one of the game’s toughest pitchers to square up.

Opponents have averaged between 84-86 MPH in exit velocity in each of the last four seasons, per Statcast. That ranked in the 95th percentile or better in all four years. Batters made hard contact (an exit velocity at or above 95 MPH) on only 26.3% of their batted balls a season ago. Among qualified pitchers, only Phil Maton, Tom Cosgrove and Tanner Scott did a better job avoiding authoritative contact.

The ability to stay off barrels allowed Suter to overcome hitter-friendly home environments. He turned in strong results in Milwaukee and had no issues acclimating to Colorado’s Coors Field after a waiver claim last offseason. In 69 1/3 innings, he turned in a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, including a 3.66 mark in 32 frames in Denver. A track record of success in difficult home parks is surely appealing to a front office building a pitching staff in Great American Ball Park.

Nevertheless, teams generally harbor skepticism about a pitcher who succeeds on guile and command without overpowering pure stuff. Suter’s only season with an above-average strikeout rate came during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Last year, he punched out just 18.8% of opponents while sitting in the mid-upper 80s with his sinker and four-seam fastball.

Suter’s age and lack of velocity was always likely to limit his market. It’s still somewhat surprising that he landed a $3MM guarantee. Next year’s salary is a half million dollars below the $3MM he made last year, his final arbitration season. Suter grew up in Cincinnati and attended high school there, so it seems fair to presume that geography played a role in his decision — particularly if his camp was sorting through a number of low-cost, one-year offers.

He joins Sam Moll and Alex Young as left-handed relief options for skipper David Bell. The Reds have Alexis Díaz in the ninth inning and brought back Buck Farmer to join Pagán and Lucas Sims as right-handed setup candidates. Ian Gibaut, who is out of options, could compete with Fernando Cruz and Tejay Antone for the final spot or two in the middle innings.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Re-Sign Alan Busenitz

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The Reds and right-hander Alan Busenitz agreed on a minor league deal earlier this week, according to the transactions log on Busenitz’s MLB.com profile page. Busenitz hit minor league free agency earlier this winter but now is set to return to Cincinnati for a second season in the organization.

A 25th-round pick by the Angels in the 2013 draft, Busenitz made his MLB debut with the Twins back in 2017, pitching out of the club’s bullpen for two seasons with a 4.58 ERA and 5.49 FIP. After being granted his release by the Twins prior to the 2019 season, Busenitz landed with the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Busenitz’s first season in Japan was a dominant one, as he posted a sterling 1.69 ERA in 64 innings of work. Busenitz’s run prevention numbers regressed someone over the next two seasons, with a 3.51 ERA in 82 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18%, but he rebounded in 2022 to post a 2.14 ERA over 33 2/3 frames while punching out 21.1% of batters faced.

Busenitz’s strong 2022 campaign and generally solid NPB track record earned him a look from the Reds on a minor league deal last offseason. After posting a 2.83 ERA through 155 2/3 career innings overseas, the right-hander’s return to stateside ball saw him shuttled on and off the club’s 40-man roster throughout the season, though he ultimately posted a strong 2.57 ERA across his six appearances in the majors with five strikeouts against one walk in seven innings of work. His minor league numbers were also strong to start the season, as the righty posted a 2.48 ERA in 40 innings at the Triple-A level through mid-August. He struck out 25% of batters faced during that time, though his 12.8% walk rate stood out as a potential red flag.

The wheels came off for Busenitz after being sent to the minors for the final time in 2023 in late August. The right-hander struggled terrible to a 13.91 ERA in his final 11 minor league appearances last year, dragging his overall minor league numbers last season down to a mediocre 4.94 ERA in 51 innings. If Busenitz can avoid a late season slump in 2024, he could provide the Reds with a valuable depth arm in 2024 and help to support a relief corps that the club relied on for a whopping 652 1/3 frames last year, a figure that was second to only the Giants in the NL. Busenitz figures to compete with the likes of Fernando Cruz and Buck Farmer for a spot in the Reds bullpen this spring.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

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