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MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

Coaching Notes: Guardians, Nationals, Twins

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Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com recently provided an update on the ongoing search for the next Guardians manager, who will step into the shoes of recently-retired skipper Terry Francona. Hoynes noted that the club has been narrowing their list of potential candidates in recent weeks and has begun interviewing candidates who aren’t still in or recently out of the postseason mix. Hoynes added that while Rays manager Kevin Cash now appears to be rooted in Tampa following speculation he could be a potential target for Cleveland, it’s unclear whether he was ever a serious candidate for the position. Hoynes also notes that Cash, still under contract with the Rays for 2024, would have had to be acquired via trade if he was to become the next skipper in Cleveland.

In addition to previously-known interest in Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and first base coach Sandy Alomar (the latter of whom declined to interview for the position), Hoynes adds that the Guardians will interview minor league field coordinator John McDonald for the position. McDonald played in the majors for sixteen years, including seven in Cleveland, before taking his current position in the Guardians organization. Hoynes adds that the club had interest in interviewing third base coach Mike Sarbaugh, though the long-time member of the club’s coaching staff declined the offer to interview for the position.

More coaching news from around the majors…

  • While the Nationals recently parted ways with several of their coaches, Andrew Golden of the Washington Post reports that at least two familiar faces will return to manager Dave Martinez’s staff next year: pitching coach Jim Hickey and hitting coach Darnell Coles. Golden notes that Martinez himself advocated for Hickey’s return in particular, and that Hickey’s work with the organization’s many young pitchers drew praise throughout the organization. Coles has coached in the majors since 2014, with stints as hitting coach in Milwaukee and Arizona before joining Washington’s staff in 2021. Hickey’s professional coaching career began in 1996, and his first big league role came in 2004 with the Astros. He has since acted as pitching coach for the Rays and Cubs before joining the Nationals following the 2020 season.
  • Following an 87-win season that saw the club capture the AL Central crown and win their first postseason series since 2002, the Twins are bringing back their entire coaching staff under manager Rocco Baldelli, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. While Nightengale notes Minnesota’s MLB-worst 26.6% strikeout rate this year, with Baldelli arguing that the club’s high walk rates and power output in 2023 made up for the whiffs. “You want baserunners, and you want balls hit on the barrel,” he said, “That’s what we want, those two things, above anything else.” Baldelli also noted that the offense would naturally improve next year with healthy seasons from star hitters Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, each of whom dealt with injuries throughout the 2023 campaign.

Byron Buxton Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery; Alex Kirilloff To Undergo Labrum Surgery

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Now that the Twins’ season is over, surgery is in the cards for two prominent Minnesota players.  Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Byron Buxton under an arthroscopic right knee surgery today, and that Alex Kirilloff will undergo a procedure to fix his torn right labrum on October 24.

This is the second straight year that Buxton will have undergone an arthroscopic procedure on his troublesome right knee, though Falvey noted “this one wasn’t something that existed a year ago in terms of the evaluation and where things were.  This is one that developed more related to the patellar tendinitis that he was dealing with this year, and a potential path to help alleviate this.  In some cases, I’m sure this plica issue wouldn’t necessarily be surgically removed, but I think because he’s dealt with persistent symptoms, that’s a path.”

Buxton’s long injury history is well-documented, as is the fact that the former Gold Glover was entirely limited to DH duty in 2023 due to lingering discomfort in his right knee.  The experiment wasn’t too successful, as Buxton hit a modest .207/.294/.438 over 347 plate appearances in 85 games, and he didn’t play again in the regular season after August 1 due to a hamstring strain.  While rehabbing that hamstring injury, Buxton played seven innings of one minor league game in center field, but that seemed to again re-aggravate his knee issues.  He didn’t make it back to action at all until Game 4 of the ALDS, when Minnesota inserted Buxton onto the roster as an injury replacement for Kirilloff — Buxton had one at-bat as a pinch-hitter, popping out to first base in his only appearance during the Twins’ playoff run.

Unfortunately for Buxton, it doesn’t seem like this latest surgery will entirely correct what seems to be a chronic knee issue.  Falvey described today’s procedure as “hopefully…a step that gets us in a direction towards making sure it’s less of a problem going forward.  He’ll have to manage it.  We know that part.  But ultimately, hopefully we can manage it a little bit better going forward.”

In terms of timeline, Buxton will be able to start physical therapy within a few weeks’ time, and Falvey said the All-Star should be ready for the start of Spring Training.  If all goes well, Buxton should be able to return to center field in at least a part-time capacity in 2024, though naturally things are still very much up in the air given how Buxton’s knee (to say nothing of several other injuries) have plagued him throughout his career.  As a result, the center field position will remain a question mark for the Twins, since Michael A. Taylor is slated for free agency until Minnesota can work out an extension before the market fully opens five days after the end of the World Series.

Kirilloff is also no stranger to the surgical suite, after undergoing wrist procedures in each of the last two seasons.  Kirilloff hurt his right shoulder back in June while diving for a ball, and attempted to play through the pain before finally going onto the injured list for what ended up being around a six-week absence.

“I think if he had got through the first rehab and there was no soreness, and he got through the end of the year in an OK spot, it might not be a surgical procedure,” Falvey said, though unfortunately Kirilloff’s shoulder acted up against during the ALDS to force the situation.  Falvey noted that a recovery timeline won’t be known until the surgery actually happens, though Kirilloff expressed optimism yesterday when speaking with the media that it would be a relatively simple recovery.  Kirilloff throws with his left arm and not his right, so that should already cut back on the rehab required.

Twins Notes: Taylor, Buxton, Correa

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With the Twins now eliminated from the postseason at the hands of the Astros, eyes are now turning toward the impending offseason. Veteran righty Sonny Gray has already expressed his desire to return to Minnesota next year, and outfielder Michael A. Taylor joined him in an interview with Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News. In conversation with Wolfson, Taylor spoke of his hopes to return to the Twins next year as well as his appreciation of people throughout the organization and the club’s chemistry in the locker room, calling Minnesota a “quality ballclub.”

Taylor, 32, is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. In addition to his typical strong defense in center field (+9 Outs Above Average, per Statcast) with a .220/.278/.442 slash line in 388 plate appearances. Though his on-base numbers certainly leave something to be desired, Taylor’s career-best 21 home runs propelled his over all numbers to around league average (96 wRC+). When taken with his quality defense and baserunning, it leaves Taylor as a solid everyday option in center field. Whether he ultimately signs with the Twins or elsewhere, Taylor figures to receive plenty of interest around the league.

Of course, any potential reunion between Taylor and the Twins could hinge on what’s in store for the club’s typical center fielder, Byron Buxton. The talented but oft-injured slugger was unable to play the field during the 2023 campaign, opening the door for Taylor to receive semi-regular playing time with Minnesota in center field while Buxton acted as the club’s DH. It was a difficult season for Buxton, as he slashed just .207/.294/.438 in 85 games as the club’s DH while battling an injured knee.

A healthy Buxton figures to be of utmost importance to the Twins next season, though Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune relays that Buxton is not yet sure whether or not he’ll require another surgery on his ailing knee this offseason. The uncertainty surrounding Buxton could further incentivize the club to explore a reunion with Taylor, who the club acquired last offseason to help man center field in the event Buxton faced another injury-marred campaign.

Fortunately, the Twins have more clarity regarding shortstop Carlos Correa’s path to health this offseason. Per Nightengale, Correa will be meeting with Twins medical staff to ensure a smooth recovery from his season-long battle with plantar fasciitis. While Correa’s foot will not require surgery, he is expected to undergo a procedure to correct the deviated septum in his nose. Correa previously underwent surgery to correct the issue back in 2018.

In his second season with the Twins and on the heels of signing a six-year, $200MM deal with Minnesota this past offseason, Correa struggled somewhat at the plate. In 580 plate appearances, he slashed just .230/.312/.399 with a wRC+ of 96, though he did manage to offer his typical solid defense at shortstop. Surely, Minnesota is hoping that an offseason of rest can alleviate Correa’s issues with plantar fasciitis and put him in position to post a strong 2024 campaign more in line with his first season as a Twin, when he slashed an impressive .291/.366/.467 with a wRC+ of 140.

Injury Notes: Scherzer, Kirilloff, Moreno

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Rangers ace Max Scherzer was thought to be done for the season as recently as last month due to a teres major strain, but the veteran righty has spent the postseason to this point rehabbing the injury with the hope of returning in time to impact the pennant chase in Texas. With the Rangers now poised to face the Astros in the ALCS starting this weekend, Scherzer’s rehab appears to be in the best place its been to this point. In conversation with reporters, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that Scherzer’s 60-pitch simulated game yesterday left him feeling “real encouraged” regarding the future Hall of Famer’s health entering the upcoming series. Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today adds that Bochy indicated Scherzer would be a starting pitcher for the club if he is well enough to make the roster.

The news is surely encouraging for fans in Arlington. In winning five straight games to advance to the ALCS, the club’s starting and multi-inning options in Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford have pitched exceptionally well, with a combined 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work. A healthy Scherzer would allow Texas more flexibility regarding the usage of Heaney, Dunning, and Bradford with Montgomery and Eovaldi joining the team ace as the club’s three main starters for the series. Scherzer sports a 3.77 ERA in 152 1/3 innings of work this season, though that figure drops to a more impressive 3.20 (140 ERA+) since joining the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline.

More injury news from around the league…

  • Alex Kirilloff was replaced by Byron Buxton on the ALDS roster for the Twins yesterday due to a shoulder injury, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes adds that Kirilloff spoke to reporters following last night’s game regarding the issue. Kirilloff revealed that surgery is on the table regarding his shoulder as he’s dealt with issues regarding it dating back to June. Fortunately, Hayes notes that the injury is in Kirilloff’s non-throwing shoulder and the 25-year-old isn’t concerned about a potential procedure’s rehab process. Kirilloff appeared in 88 games for the Twins this year while battling through wrist and shoulder issues, slashing .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate. Kirilloff figures to enter Spring Training in the mix for regular starts, with experience both at first base and in the corner outfield spots.
  • The Diamondbacks removed catcher Gabriel Moreno from yesterday’s win over the Dodgers due to a hand contusion, sparking concern about the health of the club’s young catcher for the second time this postseason. He had previously been struck in the head by a backswing during the club’s Wild Card series against the Brewers. Fortunately, the club provided an update on Moreno this afternoon via Twitter. Arizona quoted Moreno as saying he “should be available for the rest of the playoffs” after tests on his hand came back negative. Moreno’s had an impressive postseason with a .250/.294/.813 slash line and three home runs in 17 trips to the plate. It’s an excellent capstone to a solid rookie season that saw the 23-year-old slash .284/.339/.408 in 111 games as the primary catcher for the DBacks.

Sonny Gray Discusses Impending Free Agency

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The Twins were eliminated from the playoffs yesterday following their loss at the hands of the Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS. The club’s elimination brings to a close the 2023 campaign for a club that won 87 games, returned to the top of the AL Central standings for the first time since 2020, and won its first playoff series since 2002. Now, Minnesota will turn its attention to the impending offseason, where a handful of the club’s players figure to test free agency.

Chief among that group is veteran right-hander Sonny Gray, who led the club’s rotation with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings of work with an MLB-best 2.84 FIP. That performance put Gray squarely in contention for the AL Cy Young award in 2023, and sets him up to be one of the league’s top free agents this offseason. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke with Gray following last night’s loss regarding his future, and the righty made clear that his top priority as he heads into free agency isn’t necessarily securing the highest guarantee he can.

“I don’t know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I’ll say it because it’s honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been,” Gray said. “Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.” Gray went on to speaking glowingly of his time with the Twins. He noted that he “loves it” in Minnesota, adding that his time as a Twin has been an “incredible experience” and that “there is something special going on in this clubhouse.”

Though Gray’s interest in remaining with the Twins is evident, that hardly guarantees a return. Hayes goes on to indicate that the club figures to extend a one-year qualifying offer of roughly $20.5MM to Gray, though it’s unclear whether or not the Twins are interested in a longer term deal. While Gray and fellow rotation arm Kenta Maeda are headed for free agency, right-handers Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are each under long term club control. Meanwhile, righty Chris Paddack is expected to rejoin the rotation next year. That still leaves an open spot in this club’s rotation, though Hayes suggests the club could give a look to righty Louie Varland, who posted a 4.63 ERA in 68 innings of work at the big league level as a swingman for the Twins.

If Gray doesn’t return to Minnesota, he’s sure to find plenty of interest elsewhere. The Cardinals are already known to have interest in Gray’s services, while the Dodgers, Cubs and Reds are among the many other clubs who could potentially be on the lookout for rotation help this offseason. While the interest in Gray figures to be strong, it’s unlikely the veteran hurler will receive a top-of-the-market offer in terms of years, given he’ll be celebrating his 34th birthday next month. Gray’s comments hardly disputed that likelihood, with the righty suggesting that his decision this offseason will decide “where are the next three to four years of our lives” will be. A deal in that range certainly seems feasible on the heels of right-hander Chris Bassitt receiving a three-year, $62MM deal covering his age 34-36 seasons last offseason.

Byron Buxton Replaces Alex Kirilloff On Twins’ ALDS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that Byron Buxton has been approved as a substitute for Alex Kirilloff on the Twins’ roster before this evening’s Game 4 against the Astros. Kirilloff was removed from yesterday’s game with a shoulder injury, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).

Buxton landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain in early August, and recurring knee trouble has kept him on the shelf ever since. He began a rehab assignment in late September, and following the conclusion of the minor league season, he continued to train with the Twins in hopes of making his return. Ultimately, the star center fielder was left off the ALDS roster, as he had not yet progressed to running the bases by the start of the series.

Balldelli explained that Buxton still isn’t back to full strength, but he is healthy enough to help the team in “smaller spurts” (as relayed by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune). If nothing else, he should be available to pinch hit, so the Twins must feel the 29-year-old is ready to run the bases if need be. A former Gold and Platinum Glove winner, Buxton has been preparing to return to the outfield after spending the 2023 season as a designated hitter. However, if he isn’t 100% healthy, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be playing the field against the Astros.

Kirilloff missed approximately six weeks in the summer dealing with a shoulder strain but seemed healthy upon his return, slashing .273/.311/.455 with a 107 wRC+ over his final 18 games. Unfortunately, Baldelli says the shoulder strain has come back, and it has been affecting the first baseman’s swing. He has gone 0-for-9 with two walks thus far in the playoffs. It reached a point on Tuesday when the lefty could no longer swing at all, and he was replaced with a pinch hitter in the sixth inning.

Should his shoulder trouble subside, Kirilloff will be eligible to return for the World Series, presuming the Twins advance that far. Donovan Solano, who replaced him at first base last night, will get the start in Game 4 this evening, and Baldelli says he’ll be the primary first baseman going forward. Edouard Julien, who is in tonight’s lineup as the designated hitter, could also play first, potentially freeing up the DH spot for Buxton. Utility man Kyle Farmer can also play first base.

When healthy, Kirilloff was an important bat for the Twins this season, hitting 11 home runs in 88 games and posting career highs in all three triple-slash categories. However, due to his shoulder problems, he’s been a bit of a black hole in the lineup during the playoffs. Solano has been a dependable contact hitter for years, and he posted a career-best .369 on-base percentage this season in his first campaign with Minnesota. It should help to have his bat in the lineup as the Twins face elimination throughout the rest of the ALDS. Buxton is more of a wild card – it’s hard to know what to expect from the former All-Star after so much time off – but at his best, he’s a major power threat and a valuable asset on the bases.

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

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Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits.  While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”

In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available.  Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.

St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player.  In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old.  More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.

With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types.  Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.

Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline.  Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.

Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old.  Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon.  While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.

Quick Hits: Twins, Manoah, Wright

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The Twins fell to the Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS this afternoon, though that didn’t stop manager Rocco Baldelli for providing reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune) with fresh insights into the injury situations surrounding rookie Royce Lewis and outfielder Byron Buxton.

Regarding Lewis, there’s reason for optimism that the young slugger can return to the field in the near future. While he typically serves as the regular third baseman for the Twins, Lewis has been limited to DH-only duties throughout the playoffs to this point thanks to a hamstring strain he suffered in late September, with Jorge Polanco covering the hot corner in his stead. It sounds as though a potential return to third could be in Lewis’s future before the postseason is over, however, as Baldelli noted that Lewis was making progress, though he’s still currently at risk of re-aggravating his hamstring injury by returning to the diamond.

As for Buxton, the oft-injured center fielder was similarly limited to DH-only duties this year, never once taking the field on defense throughout the regular season. The injury also seemingly hampered Buxton at the plate, as he slashed just .207/.294/.438 in 85 games with the Twins this year. The club made the decision to leave Buxton off the ALDS roster, and Baldelli shed some light on that decision in what appears to be a worrisome update regarding Buxton’s ability to impact the club later in the postseason. Per Baldelli, Buxton has yet to progress to running the bases as he hopes to return to the club this postseason. With Buxton not yet running the bases, it’s hard to imagine him being healthy enough to return to defensive play in the outfield as the Twins make their push toward their first World Series championship since 1991, though the Twins have not yet ruled him out for the postseason.

More from around the major leagues…

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins provided an update on right-hander Alek Manoah during today’s end-of-season presser, as noted by ESPN. Manoah, clarifying some of the uncertainty that surrounded the right-handers status last month. Atkins noted that Manoah had received an injection to reliever discomfort in his throwing shoulder, though he added that no structural damage had been found after multiple tests. Atkins described the 2022 AL Cy Young award finalist as “motivated to get back to form,” adding that Manoah felt the injection was the best choice for a next step forward as he looks to prepare for the 2024 campaign. Manoah, 25, struggled badly in 19 starts with the Blue Jays this year, posting a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work.
  • Braves right-hander Kyle Wright is set to miss the 2024 campaign due to an impending shoulder surgery, as the club announced before today’s 3-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS. Following the game, Wright spoke to reporters, including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, about his injury. Wright noted that an MRI revealed perforations on the capsule in his right shoulder, and that while the severity of the damage won’t be clear until the procedure begins, he’s certain to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. Prior to testing revealing the damage, Wright adds, the issue was something he attempted to pitch through in hopes of making Atlanta’s postseason roster.
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