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Yankees Rumors

Luxury Tax Status Will Not Reset If 2020 Season Is Cancelled

By Jeff Todd | March 30, 2020 at 6:10pm CDT

While Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have officially reached a deal on a temporary re-working of the collective bargaining agreement, the details are still filtering out. One key element of the coronavirus alteration is the role of the competitive balance (“luxury”) tax.

The CBT has played a notable role in structuring roster decisionmaking in recent years. Even those organizations willing to pay it from time to time have sought to avoid doing so in consecutive seasons. Repeat offenders pay heavier rates on their overages. Big-spending teams have come to recognize that dipping back under the bar to reset the luxury tax rate can make for massive savings.

We have learned some details of the modified system (see here and here), including the fact that there’s no CBT obligation if a season isn’t played. (Otherwise, it’ll be handled on a pro-rated basis.) But that doesn’t mean that, in the unfortunate event of a cancelled season, every team would start with a clean slate in the 2020-21 offseason. Instead, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link), the pre-2020 CBT status would carry forward.

This news is directly pertinent to the three teams that incurred a luxury tax penalty in 2019: the Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs. In the event of a season cancellation, they’d all head into the 2021 season without a reset. That could have major implications for the Boston and Chicago organizations, in particular.

While the Yankees were planning to blow past the $208MM luxury tax line regardless, the Red Sox and Cubs were not. The Boston club — a two-time repeat payer of the luxury tax — had already moved below the 2020 mark and was clearly planning on a reset. The Cubs were sitting just above the threshold when Spring Training was suspended. Calculation depends upon the contracts added or removed during the course of the season, so the Cubs expected to have a chance to reevaluate as the campaign progressed.

This bit of news may not end up mattering. If the 2020 season is played, the Red Sox will get their reset and the Cubs will still have a chance to adjust their payroll to dip under the luxury threshold — so long as there’s an opportunity to make trades, at least. Then again, the calculus would be quite a bit different than originally anticipated in a short-season format without a typical trade deadline period.

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The Yankees’ (Brief) History Of Contract Extensions

By Mark Polishuk | March 29, 2020 at 11:38pm CDT

Twenty-eight different contract extensions were signed between teams and players between February-April 2019, and the Yankees were one of the many clubs that joined in on this rush.  Aaron Hicks was a season away from free agency at the time, though the outfielder chose to forego the open market in favor of a contract that paid him $64MM in new money through the 2025 season.  Right-hander Luis Severino inked a four-year, $40MM deal that covered his four arbitration-eligible years as a Super Two player, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for the 2023 season, which would have been Severino’s first free agent year.

Another extension came after the season, as the Yankees worked out an agreement with Aroldis Chapman that would see the closer decline his opt-out clause in favor of a three-year, $48MM extension that essentially added an extra year (and another $18MM) onto the final two seasons of Chapman’s previous contract.

Three extensions in less than a year is a pretty notable amount of business for any team on the long-term front.  In the Yankees’ case, however, it counts as an absolute flurry given how rarely the Bronx Bombers have engaged in such internal long-term deals.  New York’s three extensions in 2019 came on the heels of only six extensions in the previous 18 years.

The reason for this lack of extension action is simple — it was against team policy.  “I just don’t believe in contract extensions, and that’s throughout the organization, no matter who it is,” managing partner Hal Steinbrenner told the Associated Press and other reporters in 2010.  “Hopefully nobody takes that personally. It’s just business.”

Between the time Steinbrenner officially became the Yankees’ control person in November 2008 and the start of 2019, his anti-extension stance stayed almost completely intact, with two exceptions that somewhat mirrored the Chapman and Hicks situations.  C.C. Sabathia also had a contractual opt-out decision following the 2011 season, though he and the Yankees worked out a new deal that gave the southpaw five years and a guaranteed $122MM to overwrite the previous four years and $92MM remaining on his previous contract.  Prior to the 2014 season, Brett Gardner (like Hicks) was also just a year away from free agency before New York locked him up for a four-year, $52MM extension.

Beyond the Sabathia and Gardner contracts, however, that was it on the extension front.  As Steinbrenner noted, the “no matter who it is” edict even stretched to the likes of Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter, who both reached the open market before eventually (and, in Jeter’s case, not without some contentious words) re-signing with New York.  Even general manager Brian Cashman’s last three contracts have only been signed after the GM’s previous deals had expired.

Why would the team take such a hard line?  In short, the Yankees always wanted as much flexibility as possible in deciding their future moves, since they had the financial resources to immediately pivot to a better option in free agency or the trade market if such an upgrade was available.  Whereas other teams pursued extensions as a way of locking up young talent into their free agent years or at least getting some cost certainty through arbitration years, such concerns simply weren’t on the Yankees’ radar given their free-spending ways.

Of course, the franchise has become somewhat more cost-conscious in recent years, which likely explains the Bombers’ openness towards extensions in 2019.  After 15 years of overages, the Yankees finally ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold during the 2018 season, allowing them to reset their penalty clock for 2019 (when they surpassed the threshold again).  Though New York didn’t go to the extremes of other big-market clubs like the Cubs or Red Sox in limiting or eliminating their luxury tax payments, the Yankees saw value in getting under the tax line once, plus they had the additional bonus of being able to cut their tax bill while still remaining competitive since so many of the club’s young stars seemingly broke out at the same time.

With the CBT penalty reset, the Yankees had the freedom to explore a tactic like signing Severino through his arbitration years.  The deal was seen at the time as very canny, given that Severino seemed to be a burgeoning ace, and thus in line for an escalating arb price tag.  In Hicks’ case, he may have had extra motivation to sign an extension given how the restrained 2017-18 and 2018-19 free agent markets left a lot of players settling for below-market deals or having long waits on the open market.  Hicks could have preferred the security of just remaining in New York, and his price was apparently satisfactory enough for the Yankees to make the long-term commitment to a player they obviously wanted to retain.

The early returns on both deals, however, haven’t been good.  Injuries limited Hicks to only 59 games in 2019 and he underwent Tommy John surgery last October, putting him out of action until at least June (though he might not miss any game time at all, given the delayed start to the season).  The news was even worse for Severino, who tossed just 12 innings last season due to injuries and then underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in late February.  The righty now won’t be back on the mound until early in the 2021 campaign.

It isn’t yet clear if the disastrous starts to both of these extensions may have once again made the team wary of such longer-term deals, or if Steinbrenner and the Yankees front office still consider the process to be sound — after all, there’s still plenty of time for Hicks and Severino to make good on their deals.  Since big-picture concerns likely inspired the club’s decision-making towards those extensions in the first place, it’s safe to assume that inevitable changes to the sport’s financial structure will also impact the Yankees’ future approach more so than a pair of Tommy John surgeries.

Both baseball and the world at large are gripped with the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, plus there’s also the fact that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players’ union is up in December 2021.  With these factors in mind, it isn’t a stretch to say that the way baseball does business could be vastly different two years from now, which could leave the Yankees and several other teams hesitant about committing any more long-term money until things can be figured out.

Working out an extension for, say, Aaron Judge seems to pale in comparison to such matters.  But, when trying to guess whether or not New York will (once the roster freeze is lifted) seek out multi-year deals for the likes of Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Andujar, or any number of other players, it’s worth noting that the Yankees generally don’t extend players very often, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they return to their old wait-and-see approach.

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Yankees Option 4 Players To Minors

By Connor Byrne | March 26, 2020 at 7:43pm CDT

The Yankees pared down their roster Thursday, optioning three pitchers – Deivi Garcia, Mike King and Ben Heller – as well as infielder Thairo Estrada to the minors. The club sent Garcia to Double-A Trenton and the rest to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Garcia and King may be the most intriguing names in this quartet. It wasn’t long ago that both pitchers were competing for season-opening roles in the Yankees’ banged up rotation. But if the coronavirus does delay Opening Day until June or later, injured left-hander James Paxton figures to begin the year in the Yankees’ starting staff. That would give them a complete five-man rotation with Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery complementing Gerrit Cole.

While Garcia and King aren’t ticketed for season-opening roles in New York, the pair could find themselves in the majors soon enough. The two undoubtedly count among the Yankees’ best farmhands, with Baseball America ranking the 20-year-old Garcia as their No. 3 prospect and placing King, 24, at No. 13.

Estrada, also 24, made his MLB debut in 2019 and batted .250/.294/.438 with three home runs in 69 plate appearances. He played both middle infield positions and both corner outfield spots during that brief stint.

Heller, whom the Yankees acquired from the Indians in the teams’ 2016 trade centering on Andrew Miller, has totaled just 25 1/3 major league innings thus far. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018, thereby sidelining the 28-year-old for all of that season and for the majority of last year.

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Aaron Hicks Begins Throwing Program

By Steve Adams | March 25, 2020 at 5:10pm CDT

Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks has been cleared to begin a throwing program, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Wednesday (Twitter links via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Boone didn’t provide a further timetable on Hicks, but it’s a notable step in the 30-year-old’s recovery from last October’s Tommy John surgery.

As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne noted when looking at how the postponing of Opening Day impacts the Yankees, Hicks’ recovery timetable was expected to be eight to 10 months, which would put him in line for a return anywhere from June until August. Depending on when (or if) the season is able to commence, it’s possible that Hicks could return to the lineup without having missed much time at all.

That’d be a notable boost for the Yankees; while many have lamented the seven-year, $70MM contract signed by Hicks immediately before back injuries caused him to begin the 2019 season on the IL (and before his elbow required surgery), it’s worth remembering just how strong Hicks’ 2017-18 seasons were. During that time, he slashed .255/.368/.470 with 42 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and 21 steals through 942 plate appearances. In the field, he totaled 4 Defensive Runs Saved, a 5.7 Ultimate Zone Rating and was at least average, per Statcast’s OAA metric.

Boone also noted that lefty James Paxton, on the mend from back surgery, is continuing a throwing program at his Wisconsin home. All appears to be well on that front — or, at least, no setback or negative updates were provided — which bodes well for an on-target return to the mound. The Yankees announced he’d be sidelined three to four months when he underwent back surgery in February.

As for right fielder Aaron Judge, Boone offered little in terms of timeline but gave what’s sure to be a frustrating update for fans when he revealed that the slugger’s collapsed lung could date all the way back to a diving attempt in the outfield last September. “It’s probably something that’s impossible to know for sure, but I would believe that it’s all interrelated,” said Boone. Judge will be re-evaluated in a “few weeks” after his cracked rib has had more time to heal, tweets Brendan Kuty of the New Jersey Star-Ledger.

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Extension Candidates: AL East

By Darragh McDonald | March 23, 2020 at 9:45pm CDT

There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?

We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.

Blue Jays

The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.

One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?

On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.

Orioles

The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.

The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.

That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.

Rays 

The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.

As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.

As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.

In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.

Red Sox

After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.

Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.

Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.

Yankees

The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.

They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?

Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.

In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.

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Latest On Giancarlo Stanton’s Calf Injury

By Jeff Todd | March 23, 2020 at 2:33pm CDT

Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has continued to rehab his injured calf during the coronavirus hiatus. Since last we checked in, it seems he has made significant progress.

In comments to Meredith Marakovits on YES Network, Yanks manager Aaron Boone indicated that Stanton is more or less back to full speed. (Via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, on Twitter.) Per Boone, Stanton would “probably be ready to go” if spring contests were still on the schedule.

It remains to be seen just when Stanton will actually have a chance to re-take the field. But it’s certainly good to hear that he has improved so much even without any need for urgency.

Stanton had been expected to miss Opening Day but will now be expected to suit up when the sport finally restarts. Of course, that presumes he’ll be able to avoid any further injuries while working out during the layoff. Stanton dealt with a series of maladies in 2019, ultimately appearing in only 18 contests.

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How The Delayed Season Impacts The Yankees

By Connor Byrne | March 20, 2020 at 9:54pm CDT

One of today’s innumerable sad realities is that the coronavirus will shorten or, in a worst-case scenario, wipe out the 2020 Major League Baseball season. We’re all hoping the world will get back to normal as soon as possible, though the calendar could turn to June or July before MLB’s Opening Day rolls around. The only bright side for baseball is that will give injured players across the majors more time to heal and perhaps play a full season, however long it lasts. Few teams (if any) stand to benefit more from the delay than the reigning American League East champion Yankees, who entered the spring among the game’s World Series favorites but have suffered one key injury after another in recent weeks.

Before the sport was forced to shut down and put off its March 26 opener, there were serious questions about how the Yankees’ roster would look for Game 1. Their rotation took a pair of massive hits with injuries to their two best Gerrit Cole complements, Luis Severino and James Paxton. Even with a truncated season likely, there’s no shot we’ll see Severino in 2020. After all, the flamethrowing right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery less than a month ago. But the outlook is much more hopeful for the oft-injured Paxton, who had back surgery in the first week of February. Paxton’s not expected to take the hill again until May or June; under conventional circumstances, that would have meant missing at least a month-plus of the season. Now, if Paxton’s recovery stays on course, he could be in line for either a full slate of games or something close to it.

A whole year of Paxton would be a boon for New York, though a late start to the season won’t be fully positive for its rotation. Righty Domingo German’s set to miss the first 63 games of 2020 as a result of a domestic violence suspension. So, even if we see far fewer games than usual, he’ll probably have to serve out that entire ban. A reasonably healthy Yankees starting staff would still be in better shape than most, though, with Cole, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery as their top five.

On the offensive side, the Yankees are facing a slew of injuries. That’s especially true for their outfield, which may have gone without any of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on a typical Opening Day. That’s a lot of firepower. Judge has been limited by upper body issues and even a collapsed lung for weeks, while a calf problem has slowed Stanton this spring. But the longer we’re deprived of baseball, the better the two sluggers’ chances are of being ready from the get-go. The same applies to Hicks, who underwent Tommy John surgery last October. The belief then was that Hicks would return to action in eight to 10 months. Should that timeline hold up, he may be able to debut sometime in June at the earliest.

The health of Judge, Stanton and Hicks will obviously affect other hitters on the Yankees’ roster. For instance, how much center field will Brett Gardner play if Hicks is around for most of the year? How much action will Stanton see at DH, and if he racks up a lot of time there, will it eat into at-bats for Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit and Mike Ford to a significant extent? Will Clint Frazier, who still has a minor league option remaining, begin the season as a reserve on the Yankees’ roster or as a starter in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre?

It’s fair to say the health of the Yankees at the outset of the season could also impact the rest of the American League. The more high-end contributors return for them by Opening Day, the better the Yankees’ chances are of winning the AL East. That, of course, damages the hopes of division rivals in Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto. And if the Yankees are healthy enough to position themselves to grab home-field advantage in the AL playoffs, it would bolster their odds of fending off the rest of the league and capturing their first pennant and maybe their first World Series since 2009.

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Yankees Provide Update On Aaron Judge Injury

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2020 at 1:42pm CDT

Yankees star Aaron Judge was limited this spring by a mysterious upper body ailment that was ultimately diagnosed as a stress fracture in his rib. Today, the team updated his outlook, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter link).

It turns out that Judge was not only suffering from the rib issue but also pneumothorax (collapsed lung). Fortunately, that latter issue is now fully resolved.

Today’s CT scan revealed “slight improvement” in the rib. No doubt the team will continue to take a cautious approach befitting the unusual injury and unusual broader situation. Judge is due to be checked again in a few weeks’ time.

For the time being, Judge is continuing to work out and receive treatment at the team’s spring facilities. With the lung issue no longer a concern, Judge has been cleared to fly, though his immediate plans aren’t clear.

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The Yankees And Jacoby Ellsbury: What Went Wrong?

By Tim Dierkes | March 20, 2020 at 1:44am CDT

In December 2013, the Yankees granted a seven-year, $153 million contract to Jacoby Ellsbury. What went wrong? MLBTR’s Jeff Todd unravels the saga, which remains unresolved six years in.  Click here for today’s video.

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Second Yankees Minor Leaguer Tests Positive For Coronavirus

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2020 at 5:20pm CDT

5:20pm: The Yankees have confirmed the report, issuing a statement announcing that while in self-quarantine, the still-unnamed player reported “fatigue and an elevated body temperature” to team medical personnel. The player remains in quarantine, and his symptoms have begun to dissipate, per the club.

10:59am: A second, unnamed Yankees minor-leaguer has tested positive for coronavirus infection, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The prior positive test emerged two days ago.

The Yankees and the rest of the league have already halted Spring Training, of course. But this transmission is surely the result of prior interactions between the players.

Some players are still training at spring sites. MLB players have been granted permission to do so at their own election. Most minor-leaguers have been ordered home, though some — injury rehabbers and some other ad hoc cases — have remained. The Yankees had already closed their facility after the initial positive test.

Heyman writes that some players — it’s not clear which — will remain in self-quarantine and receive testing. It’s not known just how this most recent positive test came about — presumably, the player showed symptoms — or precisely what broader testing plans the Yankees have.

There’s a broader point of controversy surrounding the apparent ability of sports teams to command tests while they still aren’t widely available. The Yankees previously indicated they had only procured one test (the previous positive).

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