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Details On Nick Pivetta’s Contract With Padres

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The Padres signed Nick Pivetta to a four-year earlier this week. Previous reporting had revealed that it was a four-year, $55MM deal, though heavily backloaded. Pivetta will receive a $3MM signing bonus, then make a salary of just $1MM this year, followed by salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the next three years. He has the opportunity to opt out after the second and third years of the deal. Yesterday, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press provided some new details that had not been previously reported.

The new details revolve around contingencies for the Padres if Pivetta gets injured. Pivetta’s $14MM salary in 2027 becomes a club option “if at any point through 2026 he has a specified injury or surgery related to the injury and is on the injured list for more than 130 consecutive days in any season or in a one-year period.” Blum mentions that Pivetta spent time on the injured list in 2024 due to a right elbow flexor strain, implying that the contract provision relates to a significant elbow surgery.

If the Padres turn down the option, Pivetta would head back to free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. At that point, he will have made $23MM over the first two years of the deal. If those injury conditions are not met, then Pivetta will have a $14MM player option and $18MM player option for 2027 and 2028.

The Friars can also trigger a 2029 club option for 2029, valued at just $5MM, “if Pivetta has the specified injury or surgery related to the specified injury and goes on the injured list for more than 130 consecutive days in any season or in a one-year period, all occurring from July 1, 2026, through the 2028 season.”

It seems the Padres have built in some cover for themselves if Pivetta needs to miss significant time, likely due to Tommy John surgery or a similar procedure. A major elbow surgery usually requires a player to miss 14 months or more, which can be a big sunk cost for a club’s payroll. The Padres have been dealing with notable financial restraints in recent years, so that’s perhaps even more so for them. With these contract provisions, they have a few options in the event Pivetta does get hurt.

At the end of 2026, they can walk away if Pivetta is slated to miss a decent chunk of the next year or two. If he sticks around but then suffers a major injury in the latter half of the deal, the 2029 option gives them a chance to add an extra year of control at a bargain rate.

Padres Re-Sign Tim Locastro To Minor League Deal

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Outfielder Tim Locastro is returning to the Padres on a minor league contract, Locastro himself tells Robert Harding of the Auburn Citizen. The Warner Sports client is on the mend from shoulder surgery performed last July and will head to minor league camp.

Locastro, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Padres last offseason as well. He hit well, putting up a line of .333/.449/.479 in Triple-A, but in just 33 games. As he himself tells Harding, he landed awkwardly during a steal attempt in the middle of May and dislocated his right shoulder. He tried to rehab this injury but was unsuccessful, undergoing the aforementioned July surgery to repair damage in that shoulder, including to his labrum. He tells Harding that he’s now healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season.

Though he didn’t make it to the majors last year, Locastro did appear in the previous seven campaigns. He’s never been a full-time player but his tremendous speed has made him an attractive bench piece. He has stolen 45 bags in 50 attempts at the big league level. Statcast ranked him as having 100th percentile sprint speed from 2019 to 2021, dropping slightly to 99th and 93rd percentile in 2022 and 2023.

He has stepped to the plate 616 times in the majors, with a line of .228/.327/.337. That translates to a wRC+ of 85, indicating he’s been about 15% below league average. He’s generally been better in the minors, with a career line of .289/.387/.457 in Triple-A, but hasn’t been able to put up that kind of performance in the show. Despite his speed, reviews on his defense are mixed. He has been graded as worth five Outs Above Average but Defensive Runs Saved has him at -5 in his 1,218 2/3 innings.

The Padres have two outfield spots spoken for, with Jackson Merrill in center and Fernando Tatis Jr. in right. Jason Heyward and Connor Joe will seemingly form a platoon in left. Players like Tirso Ornelas and Brandon Lockridge are on the 40-man and could earn some playing time, but they also have options and could get regular action in the minors instead.

If Locastro can play his way onto the roster, he’ll provide the Friars with a speedy bench outfielder. For now, he’ll join Oscar González and Forrest Wall as notable minor league signees in the outfield mix. Locastro has less than five years of service time but is out of options.

MLBTR Podcast: Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr.

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
  • Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres, Yuli Gurriel Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with veteran first baseman Yuli Gurriel on a minor league deal. Francys Romero first reported that the sides were making progress on a contract. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Mato Sports Management client gets a non-roster invite to MLB camp and would secure a $1.25MM base salary if he cracks the big league roster. There’s an additional $1MM in performance bonuses.

It’s a solid landing spot for the former batting champ, who is going into his age-41 season. The Friars have an opening at designated hitter. Skipper Mike Shildt said last week that he intended to use Luis Arraez as his primary first baseman while keeping Jake Cronenworth at second base. That more or less leaves DH up for grabs. 24-year-old outfielder Tirso Ornelas would probably be the choice if San Diego opts for a player who is already on the 40-man roster.

They’ll probably go with a non-roster invitee, though, considering Ornelas has yet to reach the majors. Gurriel joins former White Sox first baseman Gavin Sheets in camp. Outfielder Oscar Gonzalez and utility infielder Mike Brosseau also landed camp invites from San Diego. Gurriel is the most accomplished of the group, though his production has dropped sharply over the past three seasons. He’s a two-time World Series champion from his seven-year run in Houston. Gurriel won a Gold Glove and the aforementioned batting title in 2021, which stands as his most recent productive season.

Gurriel stumbled to a .242/.288/.360 slash during his final year with the Astros. He posted similar production over 329 plate appearances for the Marlins in 2023. Gurriel barely played in the majors last year. He spent the bulk of the season in Triple-A with Atlanta before catching on with the Royals as a September call-up. The righty hitter turned in a .241/.338/.296 showing across 18 games with Kansas City. He appeared six more times in the playoffs, hitting .190 in 21 at-bats.

While Gurriel hasn’t produced against major league pitching in a decent amount of time, he had a strong year in Triple-A. He slashed .292/.378/.485 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts across 75 games for Atlanta’s top affiliate. He still has excellent pure contact skills.

Under the collective bargaining agreement, MLB free agents who sign minor league deals more than 10 days before Opening Day have three guaranteed opt-out opportunities: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Gurriel qualifies, since he has six-plus years of MLB service time and finished last season on K.C.’s big league roster. He can head back to the open market at the end of camp if the Padres decide not to carry him on the Opening Day roster.

Padres Sign Nick Pivetta

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Feb. 17: Pivetta passed his physical and has reported to Padres camp. The team has formally announced his four-year contract.

Feb. 12: The Padres are reportedly in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year, $55MM deal. The CAA client receives a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s guaranteed $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM salaries over the following three seasons and can opt out after the contract after the second and third years. While the salary structure helps the Padres navigate short-term payroll constraints, the $13.75MM average annual value counts evenly against the team’s luxury tax calculation. The deal is pending a physical and has not been officially announced by the Padres, who have two openings on their 40-man roster.

Pivetta, who’ll celebrate his 32rd birthday on Friday, was the best unsigned starting pitcher. He had declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the beginning of the offseason. That was a bit of a surprising decision that presumably played a role in holding up his market into Spring Training. He finds a multi-year deal with a much greater overall guarantee than he would have received had he accepted the QO, though he’s taking a notable pay cut for the upcoming season in the process.

The 6’5″ righty debuted with the Phillies in 2017. He struggled for most of his four-year tenure in Philadelphia. A 2020 deadline trade sending him to Boston turned his career around. Pivetta has been a mid-rotation workhorse over the last four years. He ranks 23rd in MLB with 623 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He owns a cumulative 4.33 earned run average and has allowed an ERA between 4.04 and 4.56 in each season.

Pivetta was a fixture in Alex Cora’s rotation over his first two seasons in Boston. He remained in that role early in the ’23 campaign, but the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in the middle of May. Pivetta was sitting on a 6.30 ERA over his first eight starts of the season. He had a fantastic turnaround in a long relief capacity. Pivetta allowed 1.98 earned runs per nine with an exceptional 36.9% strikeout rate over his first 17 relief appearances. Boston gradually stretched him back out to a rotation workload as the season progressed, putting him back in the starting five entering last season.

A flexor strain in his elbow sent him to the injured list in early April. That was remarkably the first non-virus IL stint of his nearly seven-year MLB career. Pivetta returned no worse for wear a month later and stayed heathy from May onwards. He wound up taking the ball 27 times and worked to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings.

Pivetta’s run prevention numbers are those of a league average starter. That alone would be a significant boost to a San Diego rotation that needs reliable back-end innings. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk profile has been more intriguing than the bottom line results. He punched out 28.9% of opposing hitters against a modest 6.1% walk rate last season. That was the third season of the past four years in which he has posted a well above-average strikeout rate.

However, the swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by longstanding issues keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta has allowed a higher than average home run rate in every season of his MLB career. He gives up a lot of hard contact. While Statcast’s park factors grade Fenway Park as one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues overall, it has played around neutral for home runs over the past few seasons. Petco Park has been around average for home runs as well, though it broadly plays more favorably for pitchers.

Pivetta slots fourth on Mike Shildt’s rotation depth chart for the moment. He’s behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in what had been a very top-heavy rotation. It’s a lot more balanced now, as Pivetta can provide innings that San Diego lost when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. That’d leave one spot up for grabs among the likes of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and potential reliever conversion candidates Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.

That’d only be the case if there are no other moves before Opening Day. The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions. It’s the second straight winter in which the front office has had limited financial leeway. They’ve inked a trio of cheap one-year deals to plug holes at catcher and left field. They signed Elias Díaz for $3.5MM to start behind the plate while bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a left field platoon at a combined $2MM cost.

Pivetta won’t make much more than that in year one. The bigger ramifications are from a luxury tax perspective. The Padres snuck below the tax line in 2024. They’ve seemingly preferred to do so again this offseason. The Padres had projected narrowly above this year’s $241MM base threshold. Pivetta pushes them close to the second tax tier. RosterResource calculates their tax number around $258MM. The actual fees are relatively small. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’ll pay a $2.75MM tax on the Pivetta deal and are currently lined up for about $3.4MM in taxes overall.

While ownership may simply be willing to live with that relatively small tax bill, the front office could consider payroll-clearing trades in the coming weeks. Cease, who has a $13.75MM tax number himself for his final arbitration season, has been in trade rumors all offseason. King ($7.75MM) has been the subject of lesser trade chatter, while Robert Suarez and Luis Arraez have also been speculated about. Trading Cease or King would again raise questions about the rotation’s stability, though any such deal would almost certainly include at least one affordable MLB rotation piece in the return package.

The money isn’t the only cost for San Diego. They’ll surrender their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their 2026 bonus pool for international amateurs, because Pivetta had declined the qualifying offer. The Red Sox get a compensation pick in the ’25 draft, which will land 77th overall.

Pivetta winds up being the only free agent starter of this offseason to sign a four-year deal. Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino each signed for three years but pulled higher annual values. All but Wacha landed a larger overall guarantee. Severino and Manaea had also declined qualifying offers, while Wacha would have received one had he not re-signed with Kansas City just before QO decisions were due. Pivetta will collect $23MM over the next two seasons. His opt-out decisions will come when there are two years at $32MM and (if he doesn’t take the first out) one year at $18MM remaining.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first to report the signing and the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Red Sox Continue To Have “Due Diligence” Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Red Sox were first linked to Dylan Cease’s market back in early December, before Boston acquired Garrett Crochet from the White Sox and signed free agent Walker Buehler.  These moves brought some needed reinforcement to Boston’s rotation, but the team’s interest in Cease continues to at least linger, as MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Sox “have been in touch with the” Padres about Cease’s availability.

A source indicated to McAdam that Boston’s interest is more of the “due diligence” variety, and could simply be due to the fact that Cease’s trade market might not be fully closed until San Diego actually moves the right-hander elsewhere.  There is also no guarantee that Cease will be dealt whatsoever, as reports from earlier this week suggested that the Padres were more apt to keep both Cease and Michael King (another pending free agent) to keep their own rotation strong.

Speculatively speaking, moving Cease to the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily create a hole in the Padres’ rotation, just because it would seem likely that the Sox would send a starter-capable pitcher back in return.  The Red Sox already have enough pitchers on hand that a six-man rotation isn’t out of the question, so this volume alone would suggest that at least one of those hurlers would be dealt to the Padres in exchange for Cease.

Crochet, Buehler, Brayan Bello, and Tanner Houck wouldn’t be doing anywhere, and Lucas Giolito’s salary and recent injury history would likely keep him off the Padres’ radar.  Beyond those pitchers, any of Kutter Crawford, Quinn Priester, or Richard Fitts could work as part of a trade package, fitting in nearer the back of San Diego’s rotation behind the top three of King, Yu Darvish, and former Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta.

It would take more than just a single young starter to pry Cease away from the Padres, of course.  As McAdam notes, the Red Sox would have to factor how much they’d be willing to give up for a rental pitcher like Cease, particularly when the club has already significantly dipped into its farm system to swing the Crochet trade.  Crochet was a different situation altogether, as he is arbitration-controlled for two seasons and is making only $3.8MM in 2025, plus the left-hander has already expressed some interest in signing a contract extension.  Cease is making $13.75MM in his final year before free agency, and like most Boras Corporation clients, is more likely to test the open market than explore an extension to remain with the Padres, Red Sox, or whatever team Cease might be playing for by season’s end.

The shorter-term benefit of adding Cease is obvious for a Red Sox club that seems intent on returning to contention.  Cease could slide right in as Boston’s No. 1 starter, bumping everyone down a step and lengthening the team’s rotation.  Since Alex Bregman could opt out of his new contract as early as next winter, the Sox might be viewing 2025 with particular “win now” urgency, and acquiring Cease would certainly help in quickly getting Boston back into the playoff race.

Salary-wise, the Red Sox are projected (as per RosterResource) for an approximate $241.6MM luxury tax number this season, putting the team just a touch over the $241MM tax threshold.  Bringing Cease’s salary on board would put the Sox more firmly into tax territory, which is perhaps notable since the traditionally high-spending Red Sox have crossed the tax line just once in the last five years.  Again, Boston’s renewed focus on contending might not make a one-year tax hit a big deal in the eyes of ownership, especially since even without adding Cease, it stands to reason the Sox will look to make some kind of in-season add at the deadline if the club is indeed competing for a postseason spot.

Padres Looking To Add Another Hitter

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The Padres were dormant for much of the offseason but sprang to life recently. In the past week, they’ve bolstered the pitching staff with Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart, as well as bringing Jason Heyward and Connor Joe into the position player mix. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they would still like to add one more bat, either via trade or free agency.

The Friars lost several hitters to free agency at the end of the 2024 season, with each of Kyle Higashioka, Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano and David Peralta hitting the open market. Kim was the primary shortstop last year and Profar the left fielder. Higashioka took over the catching job during the season. Solano and Peralta each became key part-time players, with the former getting into 96 games and the latter 91.

With seemingly almost no payroll space to work with this winter, the club has had to look for low-cost solutions to fill those holes. Heyward and Joe each got very modest $1MM guarantees and are likely to form a platoon in left, replacing Profar. Elias Díaz was signed a couple of weeks ago to help the catching group, with a $3.5MM guarantee that’s broken up into a $1.5MM salary and $2MM buyout on a mutual option, with that buyout not to be paid until after the season.

At shortstop, the solution was already on the roster. Xander Bogaerts had moved from short to second early in 2024 in deference to Kim, but he moved back to short late in the year when Kim hurt his shoulder. He’ll now stick at short in 2025. That will allow Jake Cronenworth to move from first to second and Luis Arráez, who got a lot of starts as the designated hitter in the second half of 2024, to be the regular first baseman. Manny Machado will be back as the regular third baseman.

Arráez isn’t an amazing defender at first, which raises the possibility of him being a regular designated hitter this year, but it seems the club isn’t viewing it that way. “Our infielder guys — with Louie, Croney, Bogey, Manny — they’re everyday guys,” manager Mike Shildt said, per Acee. “All those guys will have an opportunity to take a DH. But I don’t view Louie and Croney being like some rotation of DH. I think they’re everyday guys that’ll be on the field. Will they get opportunities to get off their feet and DH and create other opportunities to get guys on the field? Yes. But I don’t see that being anything other than those guys are everyday guys, and we expect them to go out and play really good defense and help us win games.”

With that arrangement, and Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill in the other two outfield spots, there’s no obvious designated hitter. Guys like Tirso Ornelas, Eguy Rosario and Brandon Lockridge are on the roster but fairly lacking in experience. Oscar González, Gavin Sheets, Trenton Brooks and others are in camp as non-roster invitees but they each have their flaws, which is why they had to settle for minor league deals.

In terms of the roster, it’s easy to see the Padres fitting another bat in there, pushing those depth options to the bench of Triple-A. Presumably, any addition will be made on a tight budget, like all of their other moves this winter. As mentioned, Heyward, Joe and Díaz were cheap, with the Díaz deal even being semi-backloaded via that option buyout. The same was true of their pitching additions. Hart gets a $1MM salary this year and a $500K buyout. Though Pivetta got $55MM over four years, he’ll only get a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. Even Michael King’s $7.75MM guarantee to avoid arbitration was broken into a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and $3.75MM buyout on a mutual option.

The free agent market does still feature some bats, with Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez the most notable. Turner got a $13MM deal last offseason but is now 40 years old. Since he’s unsigned in mid-February, perhaps he’s not getting offers at that level again for 2025, despite a solid performance last year. Martinez got $12MM from the Mets last winter but with heavy deferrals and a salary of just $4.5MM. Peralta, who joined the Padres via a minor league deal in May last year, is still out there and won’t cost much. Mark Canha, Yuli Gurriel, Miguel Sanó, Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez and others are also on the market with limited earning power.

On the trade market, Spencer Torkelson doesn’t have an amazing path to playing time in Detroit and is still in his pre-arbitration years. LaMonte Wade Jr. is only making $5MM this year and could perhaps be pried away from the Giants, though the intra-divisional trade is always tougher to pull off. Starling Marte is going to make $19.5MM this year but the Mets are reportedly willing to pay down his salary in order to facilitate a deal.

Padres Reportedly Expected To Keep Dylan Cease, Michael King

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12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

Padres Sign Kyle Hart

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The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve signed lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $1.5MM, per FanSided’s Robert Murray, coming in the form of a $1MM salary and a $500K buyout on a $5MM club option for the 2026 season. He can boost the value of that option to $7.5MM based on escalators tied to games started. According to The Associated Press, the option price would climb by $250K if Hart reaches 18 starts this year, $500K at 22 starts, $750K at 26 starts, and $1MM if he starts 30 games. There’s also a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded, MLBTR has learned.

Hart, a client of NPG Sports, enjoyed a breakout showing in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024 and has drawn big league interest throughout the winter. He’s the second starter the Friars have added in as many days, as San Diego also came to terms on a four-year, $55MM deal with Nick Pivetta last night.

Hart, who turned 32 in November, was torched for 19 runs in 11 innings with the 2020 Red Sox, his lone MLB experience to date. He has a fairly nondescript 4.36 ERA in 334 2/3 Triple-A frames as well, but a move overseas and some changes to his pitch repertoire unlocked new reason for optimism.

Brandishing a new sweeper, a heavier reliance on his changeup and using his four-seamer more at the top of the zone in South Korea, Hart broke out with a 2.69 earned run average over 26 starts for the KBO’s NC Dinos. He racked up 157 innings, fanned 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a 6% clip. That performance earned him the Choi Dong-won Award — the KBO equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.

Hart now joins fellow newcomer Pivetta and holdovers Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in San Diego’s rotation mix. He could have to compete with Matt Waldron, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez for that fifth spot behind the four established veterans, but Hart at the very least seems like the front-runner to land that job.

It’s always possible that a trade changes the calculus, but the minimal 2025 commitments to Hart ($1.5MM), Pivetta ($4MM), Jason Heyward ($1MM) and Connor Joe ($1MM) over the past week have addressed several needs at bargain prices — at least for this year. (Pivetta will earn $19MM in 2026, $14MM in 2027 and $18MM in 2028.) Both Cease and King have popped up on the rumor mill this winter — Cease in particular — but as of this morning the Padres are reportedly planning to hold onto both. That can be revisited at the deadline if the season doesn’t play out as hoped. For the time being, the recent slate of cost-effective pickups seems to have filled various needs within the (very) tight confines of the payroll limitations president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been navigating throughout the winter.

The additions of Hart, Pivetta, Heyward and Joe over the past week have pushed San Diego’s payroll to a projected $207MM, per RosterResource. That’s an increase of nearly $40MM over last season’s end-of-year mark. The Friars have a projected $259MM worth of CBT obligations as well, placing them a hefty $18MM over the $241MM luxury threshold. However, since they reset their penalty level when they ducked under the tax line in 2024, they’ll be faced with only the minimum penalty: a 20% tax on their current overages. That’s about $3.6MM in penalties right now, and it’s possible trades of players other than Cease/King could yet reduce the bill. The Padres have been open to offers on reliever Robert Suarez, and they’d surely be open to offers on left-hander Wandy Peralta or infielder Jake Cronenworth, too, if it meant shedding a notable chunk of either player’s contract.

Padres To Stretch Out Stephen Kolek As Starter

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Padres manager Mike Shildt spoke to the media today and provided some updates on the club’s pitching plans. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Shildt said that right-hander Stephen Kolek will be stretched out as a starter but fellow righty Bryan Hoeing will stay in a relief role this year.

Kolek, 28 in April, worked as a reliever in 2024 but has some starting experience. In the Mariners’ system in 2022, he made 27 Double-A starts and logged 143 2/3 innings, allowing 4.51 earned runs per nine. His 21.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 47% ground ball rate were all close to average marks. In 2023, the Mariners used him largely in a relief role. He tossed 69 1/3 innings across 49 minor league appearances, mostly in Triple-A, with a 3.76 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 59% ground ball rate.

The Padres plucked him in the Rule 5 draft just over a year ago and kept him in the bullpen throughout 2024. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to right forearm tendonitis but still managed to log 46 2/3 innings over 42 appearances. His 5.21 ERA doesn’t immediately impress, nor does his 18.5% strikeout rate. However, his 55.9% ground ball rate and 5.7% walk rate were both strong numbers. He had some bad luck in the form of a .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate, which is why his 3.57 FIP and 3.41 SIERA were both significantly better than his ERA. Statcast had his barrel rate in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity in the 71st.

Kolek threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, slider and changeup. He held lefties to a .271/.326/.294 batting line. Righties put up a much stronger .327/.373/.500 performance, though with a lot of that aforementioned poor batted ball luck coming in those righty-on-righty matchups, as he had a .386 BABIP in those.

Whether that arsenal can help him turn a major league lineup over a few times is anyone’s guess at this point. The fact that he tamped down damage from lefties is encouraging. If he has a significant turnaround in the BABIP department against righties, perhaps it can work. However, there are no guarantees, especially with Kolek having not started for two years now.

The fact that the Padres are considering such a move is a reflection of their financial situation. Bullpen-to-rotation conversions are popular these days but they usually involve guys with lengthy track records of major league success as relievers, such as Seth Lugo, or former top prospects like Garrett Crochet. Kolek, on the other hand, is a Rule 5 guy who had a 5.21 ERA in his MLB debut and was on the IL for the final two months of the year.

But there are some interesting numbers under the hood, as mentioned, and the Padres need to find cheap solutions. The payroll has clearly been tight going back to last offseason, which is what led to the Juan Soto trade. This winter, trade rumors have circled around guys like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez.

Trading Cease or King would further deplete a rotation that is already a big question mark. Those two and Yu Darvish give the club a solid front three but there’s little certainty beyond that. Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

There are some options for the back end on the roster, though there are question marks with those. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half last year but 8.10 in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA last year but worked around a 14.4% strikeout rate. Jhony Brito was similar, with a 4.12 ERA and 15.7% strikeout rate, pitching only in relief. Juan Nunez, Omar Cruz and Ryan Bergert have yet to make their major league debuts.

With no real budget to work with and concerning rotation depth, the Padres might have to get creative, especially if they eventually trade Cease or King. There’s little harm in stretching a guy out in spring, as it’s generally considered easier to then move to a bullpen role later, as opposed to the other way around. He can also now be optioned, with the Rule 5 restrictions no longer in place, so getting some Triple-A work is possible.

It was reported in December that the club was considering Kolek, Hoeing and Adrián Morejón for rotation moves, though reporting from earlier this month took Morejón off the table. It now seems that Hoeing will also stick in a relief role going forward. Acquired from the Marlins alongside Tanner Scott at the deadline, Hoeing has a 4.80 ERA in 137 big league innings over the past three seasons. That includes a 2.18 ERA last year, between Miami and San Diego. He has fairly neutral splits and has thrown six different pitches in his career, providing some logic for considering the rotation move, but it seems he’ll stick in the bullpen.

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