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East Notes: O’s/Cobb, Mets, Nats, Jays, Rays

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The Orioles seem to be casting a wide net in their hunt for starting pitching, as they have been cited as having interest in quite a few arms already. While the organization has become known for doing a good portion of its business later in the offseason, perhaps it’ll be more aggressive on some pitchers this time around. In any event, the latest name connected to the O’s is righty Alex Cobb, with Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeting that the team has interest in a hurler who long tormented them in the division. Cobb won’t come cheap, but could be an option if Baltimore decides it’s able to add a more significant contract. The primary goal, though, will be to ensure there’s enough depth on hand in the rotation.

More from the eastern divisions:

  • The Mets are the current poster child for the concept that you can never have enough pitching depth. Even on the heels of a tough season in which the club’s vaunted rotation collapsed, though, GM Sandy Alderson says he’ll consider dealing arms, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. While there’s still a need to “be careful” not to thin the staff out too far, Alderson is obviously also looking for ways to improve with a limited amount of payroll flexibility. Odds are that the team’s most prominent pitchers won’t be dangled, but Puma suggests Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, or Rafael Montero might conceivably be discussed.
  • While there’s nothing the Nationals can do to get out from under their 2018 commitment to Matt Wieters, the team will look for ways to improve behind the plate. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post writes that the plan is to reduce the veteran’s role. Of course, that would mean relying more heavily on another player, and the team’s top internal alternatives (Pedro Severino and Raudy Read) are hardly sure things. An external acquisition will surely at least be considered; I ran through some other possibilities after the Nats were bounced from the postseason.
  • The Blue Jays are aiming for depth in their pitching staff, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. Lefty Robbie Ross is among the arms they are interested in, he reports. Certainly, Toronto has had a chance to see Ross up close over the past several years, which he has spent with the Red Sox. He was limited by injury in 2017 but turned in 55 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA pitching in the prior campaign. Toronto isn’t limiting itself to lefty relievers, though; Nicholson-Smith says the club is looking at basically every type of hurler out there.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the latest on the Rays’ efforts to land a new ballpark. Owner Stuart Sternberg expressed optimism about a prospective site in Hillsborough County, but there are plenty of challenges still to be dealt with. Among them: the club “might only cover $150 million of the projected $800 million cost,” Topkin writes. Those interested in learning more about where things stand will want to give the link a full read.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/17/17

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Here are Friday’s minor moves throughout the league…

  • Joining the Reds on minors deals are outfielders Mason Williams and Rosell Herrera, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer was among those to report on Twitter. Once seen as one of the game’s better overall prospects, the 26-year-old Williams has seen scant action in the majors over the past three seasons — all with the Yankees, his only professional team to this point. At the highest level of the minors last year, Williams posted a .263/.309/.318 batting line and swiped 19 bags over 437 plate appearances.Herrera, 25, has himself received top prospect billing in the past and is also something of a change-of-scenery candidate (in his case, from the Rockies). He just wrapped up his first season at Triple-A, slashing .278/.351/.394 with twenty steals over 363 plate appearances.
  • The Mets have struck a minors pact with southpaw Matt Purke, the team announced. Purke, 27, was considered a significant amateur prospect but has never fully found his niche at the game’s highest levels while dealing with numerous injury issues. He cracked the majors in 2016 with the White Sox, but did not return last year even as the Chicago organization cycled through a number of arms. Purke arguably turned in his best work in the upper minors, though, working 65 2/3 frames of 3.84 ERA ball over 48 innings while compiling 11.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.
  • Right-hander Angel Nesbitt has been hit with a 50-game PED suspension, Emily Waldon of The Athletic tweets. Nesbitt received a 24-game run in the majors in 2015 with the Tigers, but hadn’t made his way back and struggled in limited action in 2017. He is a minor-league free agent, meaning he’ll serve his penance upon signing with a new organization.

Earlier Updates

  • The Blue Jays announced last night that they’ve brought back former first-round pick Deck McGuire on a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Toronto selected McGuire, now 28 years of age, with the 10th overall pick back in 2010. The former Georgia Tech star tore through Class-A Advanced with the Jays but began to struggle upon reaching Double-A and was ultimately traded to the A’s for cash considerations in 2014. McGuire has since pitched in the upper levels of the Dodgers and Cardinals systems, and in 2017 he made his big league debut with the Reds after turning in a terrific season in Double-A. McGuire tossed 168 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 for Cincinnati’s Pensacola affiliate, and he impressed in a brief sample of MLB innings as well. Through 13 2/3 frames with the Reds, McGuire allowed four earned runs (2.63 ERA) on 10 hits and two walks with 11 strikeouts.
  • Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times tweets that the Dodgers are closing in on a minor league deal with left-hander Manny Banuelos. The 26-year-old Banuelos was once one of the most prized prospects in the Yankees’ farm system before elbow problems slowed his career. Banuelos had Tommy John surgery back in 2013 and has since undergone a second elbow operation to remove bone chips. His lone season with MLB experience came in 2015 when he tossed 26 1/3 innings with the Braves. Banuelos spent the 2017 season with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate and struggled to a 4.93 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 in 95 innings. It’s perhaps worth noting that he spent the bulk of 2017 as a reliever (nine starts, 30 relief outings) — his first career season working primarily out of the bullpen.

Blue Jays, Mets Showing Interest In Lorenzo Cain

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The Blue Jays and Mets have both reached out to the representatives for free-agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Crasnick also lists the Rangers, Mariners and Giants as more speculative fits for Cain’s services.

While both Toronto and New York already have standout defensive center fielders in Kevin Pillar and Juan Lagares, respectively, adding Cain to the outfield mix in either organization could create an elite defensive unit. The Blue Jays have a more pronounced need in the outfield, though young Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford could both work their way into regular roles next year. The Mets would appear to be more set with Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto both in the mix alongside Lagares, but Conforto’s status is something of a question mark following shoulder surgery. Speaking purely speculatively, acquiring Cain could also allow either club to trade from its stock of outfielders.

Cain, 32 next April, hit .300/.363/.440 with 15 homers and 26 steals in 645 plate appearances with the Royals in 2017. While he’s never turned in a below-average season in the outfield by virtually any defensive metric, this past season was his weakest in that regard. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at +5 runs in center field, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him at +1.6. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metric still pegged Cain as one of baseball’s truly elite outfielders; he ranked fifth among all outfielders with a sterling mark of +15.

Cain will reportedly reject the Royals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, meaning he’ll cost any club that signs him some resources in next year’s draft. Specifically, the Jays and the Mets would forfeit their second-highest pick and $500K worth of next year’s international signing pool in order to sign Cain, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explained. The Rangers would face that same penalty, while the Mariners would only need to forfeit their third-highest selection. Of the teams listed by Crasnick, the Giants would pay the steepest penalty — forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft selections as well as $1MM worth of international spending money. San Francisco is “juggling a lot of balls” at present, per Crasnick.

The Royals, meanwhile, would land a compensatory draft pick after the first round so long as Cain signs a contract worth more than $50MM in total guarantees. That seems exceedingly likely to be the case, wherever he signs. In the off-chance that Cain somehow comes up shy of $50MM, Kansas City’s comp pick would come after Competitive Balance Round B in next year’s draft.

GM Meetings Notes: The American League East

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Rivals are no doubt watching to see how the Rays decide to approach the offseason, as the team’s stable of intriguing trade candidates could change the market quite a bit. The organization is still at “an info-gathering stage,” GM Erik Neander tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It seems, though, that there’s at least some consideration of dealing some veteran assets. Topkin analyzes the possibility of a full-throated rebuild, something that Neander acknowledges having considered. Of course, the young GM also says he doesn’t think a focus on the future “necessarily always has to come from tearing an organization down to the studs and then building it up.” Indeed, he argues that the Rays have managed to amass young talent while remaining competitive, even if the results haven’t quite been there of late.

More from Tampa Bay and the rest of the AL East:

  • Also tackling the Rays situation were Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Rosenthal calls on Tampa Bay to “deconstruct,” perhaps to the point of marketing all of its best MLB talent, while Heyman says that Tampa Bay is listening to interest from other organizations on its top assets. Both pieces note that third baseman Evan Longoria remains just shy of ten-and-five rights, meaning he can’t block a trade, though Rosenthal also suggests he wouldn’t stand in the way of a move if the club decides not to compete. While Longoria clearly isn’t the team’s most valuable asset — that’d be righty Chris Archer — and is coming off of his worst-ever offensive campaign, the 32-year-old would still surely draw real interest from organizations in need of a third baseman.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski covered a host of topics in his chat with reporters yesterday. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, some of the most interesting comments covered the team’s search for a “proven bat.” Most notably, Dombrowski suggested that there are limits to the team’s willingness to pursue trade avenues, with the Sox uninterested in dealing away current MLB assets and cognizant of the need to “be careful” of further depleting their stock of prospects. With Boston having dipped below the luxury tax line last year, perhaps it’s now more appealing to take on salary via free agency than to give value in trade. Meanwhile, Dombrowski addressed the question of how the team will help cover for Dustin Pedroia early in the season. He hinted that a significant acquisition might not be necessary, highlighting Marco Hernandez as a strong internal candidate to bridge the gap.
  • One key need for the Blue Jays is to find a quality middle infielder to supplement the team’s injury-prone duo of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. The team is looking for a player that is capable of handling more-or-less full-time duties, even if that may not ultimately be required. “Our priority is complementing our infield in some way with versatility, someone that can not just play when needed, but someone who can potentially get 600 plate appearances across our infield in some form or fashion,” GM Ross Atkins explains, while also noting that such a player could supplement the outfield mix as well. As Ben Nicholson-Smith further explores, finding that sort of player could well come at a cost. Several rival general managers suggested that they won’t easily part with assets that could meet Toronto’s specifications. As Nicholson-Smith tweets, pitching depth remains on the team’s wish list, too, though it may not be as critical as adding the above-described player and filling at least one outfield vacancy.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman discussed his approach to the offseason with reporters including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links). “We have a lot of good players signed,” he said, “so we’re not in a situation where we have to be pressured into moving fast on anything.” Indeed, with quality internal options at most every spot on the roster, New York can seemingly stand to be opportunistic, particularly given that the team is set to dispense its open payroll space judiciously. Cashman also noted that he sees Aaron Hicks as an everyday player. That stance, along with the payroll considerations, seemingly makes it all the more likely that the Yanks will see if they can find a taker for Jacoby Ellsbury and some of his remaining salary obligations.
  • The Orioles, of course, face a variety of needs that will be tough to fill with somewhat limited payroll availability. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun provides a look at some veteran international targets that could be on the O’s radar. Signing foreign players to smaller, MLB deals has certainly been a notable Baltimore strategy in the past, and Meoli says the organization is “looking strongly” at doing so yet again.

Central News & Rumors: Royals, Bucs, Cards, Brewers

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The Royals are holding out hope that they’ll be able to re-sign first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’ve “all but given up” on bringing back center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Hosmer and Moustakas figure to collect two of the largest contracts of the offseason, which could pose a problem for small-market Kansas City, but owner David Glass believes the Royals would stay competitive by re-upping the homegrown duo and doesn’t want to “disappoint” the team’s fan base by letting either go, Heyman relays. Before Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain officially hit the market, each will have to reject $17.4MM qualifying offers from the Royals by Nov. 16. Unsurprisingly, that will happen, according to Heyman.

Here’s the latest from the National League Central:

  • With their control over outfielder Andrew McCutchen and right-hander Gerrit Cole dwindling, the Pirates would be wise to listen to offseason proposals for both players, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. McCutchen, who will make $14.5MM in the final year of his contract in 2018, will “almost certainly” be in another uniform in 2019, writes Olney. Cole, meanwhile, is controllable via arbitration through ’19, and Olney argues that now may be the time to move the Scott Boras client because the Pirates probably won’t be able to extend him. Elsewhere on the Bucs’ roster, Olney points to righty Ivan Nova and lights-out closer Felipe Rivero as speculative trade pieces. Nova’s unspectacular, but he’d garner interest as a capable innings eater who’s due an affordable $9.1MM-plus per annum through next year. Rivero is only entering the first of four arb-eligible years and would likely warrant a massive return for a reliever, leading Olney to conclude that the Pirates should consider dealing him.
  • The Cardinals are interested in upgrading the left side of their infield, perhaps by way of a Josh Donaldson acquisition and/or the addition of a defensively gifted shortstop, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. This isn’t the first time the Cardinals have been connected to Donaldson, but the Blue Jays are unlikely to trade the soon-to-be 32-year-old in advance of 2018, his final season of team control. The 2015 AL MVP is projected to rake in a $20.7MM arbitration award this offseason.
  • Second baseman Neil Walker is currently a free agent, so the Brewers will have to decide whether to pursue him (or another outsider) or simply stay in-house at the position, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes. The Brewers have experienced second base possibilities on hand in Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez, but there may not be an ideal starter in the group. While general manager David Stearns seems to believe the Walker-less Brewers are in good shape at the keystone, he’s keeping his options open. “I do think we have pieces to handle it internally,” Stearns said. “I would be happy coming back with our same position player group, if that’s the way this offseason plays out. At the same time, we’re looking to get better.”

Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro

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Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.

A few more early notes on the free agent market…

  • Jay Bruce’s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
  • Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
  • Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
  • Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki’s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.

Blue Jays Claim Taylor Guerrieri From Rays, Outright Four Players

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The Blue Jays announced on Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Taylor Guerrieri off waivers from the Rays. Additionally, Toronto announced that catcher Rafael Lopez and right-handers Leonel Campos, Luis Santos and Taylor Cole have been outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers.

Arm troubles have persistently slowed the career of Guerrieri, a former first-round pick (No. 24 overall, 2011) that from 2012-14 was a consensus top 100 prospect in all of baseball. Guerrieri had Tommy John surgery back in 2013, which limited him to 9 1/3 frames the following season. He slowly built back up over the next two seasons, topping out at a career-high 146 1/3 innings at the Double-A level in 2016. However, further elbow complications limited Guerrieri to that exact same mark of 9 1/3 innings once again in 2017, though he didn’t require surgery this time around. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Guerrieri is believed to be healthy and ready for Spring Training 2018.

Santos (27 in February) and Campos (30) made a handful of appearances each in Toronto this past season, totaling 31 1/3 innings between the two of them. While Santos posted a solid-looking 2.70 ERA in his 16 2/3 frames, he also walked four and served up four home runs in that time. He turned in a 4.07 ERA in 108 1/3 Triple-A innings, mostly as a starter. Campos, meanwhile, showed promising strikeout numbers but shakier control both in the Majors and minors — a common trend throughout his career.

Cole, 28, saw more limited action yet, missing most of the minor league season with an injury before going on a 12 2/3-inning scoreless streak and earning a late look in the Majors. He was hit hard in his lone MLB appearance and suffered a fractured toe after one inning, which cut short his chances of further auditioning.

Lopez, meanwhile, had a great season in Triple-A, hitting .293/.368/.551 in 223 plate appearances. The 30-year-old saw just 63 PAs with the Blue Jays late in the season, though, and has never established himself in the Majors to this point in his career (nor has he demonstrated the level of offensive prowess he did at Buffalo this season).

Blue Jays Decline Jose Bautista’s 2018 Option

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The Blue Jays officially declined their end of Jose Bautista’s $17MM mutual option for 2018, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The Jays informed Bautista of the move back in September, and GM Ross Atkins confirmed during his end-of-season talk with reporters that the option wouldn’t be picked up.  Bautista will receive $500K for the option’s buyout.

It seemed as if Bautista and the Blue Jays would part ways after winter, but after Bautista failed to drum up much interest in free agency, he re-signed with Toronto for a one-year, $18.5MM deal (which included the 2018 mutual option and a 2019 vesting option worth $20MM).  Any hopes the Jays had of scoring a bargain were dashed after Bautista followed up an injury-plagued down year in 2016 with a sub-replacement level (-0.5 fWAR) 2017 season.  Bautista hit just .203/.308/.366 over 686 plate appearances, managing 23 homers but creating 20 percent fewer runs (80 wRC+) than the average batter.

Bautista said he wants to continue his career, though at age 37 and with two declining years now on his record, he may be hard-pressed to even find a Major League contract this winter.  He has expressed an openness to playing first base in the past, so that extra bit of versatility could help his case, particularly since his right field defense has been subpar over the last few season.  Atkins described the chances of Bautista returning to Toronto on a smaller contract next season as “very unlikely,” which isn’t a surprise since the Jays are looking to get younger and more athletic, plus the DH spot is filled by Kendrys Morales.

AL East Notes: Bruce, Jays, Sox, Darvish, JDM, Hosmer, O’s

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Some rumblings from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays “were after” Jay Bruce during the season and are likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports.  Bruce reportedly didn’t draw much trade interest prior to the July deadline, though the Mets were able to deal the slugger to Cleveland in August.  It should be noted that the Jays were one of eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list, so it could be that Bruce nixed the idea of moving to a team that was only on the outskirts of the AL wild card chase and never reached the .500 mark all season.  The Jays’ inclusion on Bruce’s list also doesn’t necessarily mean he wouldn’t consider them as a free agent destination — given the Blue Jays’ past interest in his services, Bruce could have been trying to leverage some extra financial incentive in the event of another trade offer.  MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list predicted a match between Bruce and the Jays, as Toronto is sorely in need of a right fielder and a big left-handed bat.
  • The Red Sox asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish prior to the trade deadline, Evan Drellich of NBCSports.com reports.  It seems like this was mostly a cursory check-in, as talks fizzled since the Sox weren’t interested in moving a Major League player and the Rangers weren’t too interested in Boston’s prospects.  It could be argued that the Sox have enough injury uncertainty in their pitching staff to require adding another veteran arm this winter, though Darvish doesn’t seem like a fit in free agency due to his big price tag and Boston’s more pressing need for offensive help.
  • Speaking of that search for bats, both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are expected to draw attention from the Red Sox this winter, though “multiple evaluators around the game” tell the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that Martinez will be the bigger priority of the two.  Martinez has the more consistent track record of production, he won’t cost a draft pick in compensation (as Hosmer will have a qualifying offer attached) and he hits left-handed pitching better than Hosmer does, plus Hosmer’s excellent 2017 numbers may have been boosted by the good fortune of a .351 BABIP.  As Speier notes, however, the Red Sox could also aim lower and address several needs with the money required to sign Martinez or Hosmer.
  • Lorenzo Cain would be an upgrade for the Orioles but the club isn’t likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Baltimore is going to focus on pitching this winter, and the team will be looking at left-handed hitters when it comes to addressing its lineup needs.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

After an injury-riddled season, the Blue Jays are looking to rebound back into the AL East race.  With Josh Donaldson and several other key veterans only under contract through 2018, however, it remains to be seen if the Jays will acquire upgrades that will only help them next season, or if they’ll aim for longer-term assets.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview]

One major bit of offseason business has already been handled, as Marco Estrada agreed to a one-year, $13MM extension to return to the Jays next season.  2017 was easily the worst of Estrada’s three seasons in Toronto, though much of the damage was came during a midseason slump that Estrada has said was partially caused by off-the-field issues.  Given that Estrada looked closer to his old form during the second half of the season, he’ll give the Jays another solid arm to slot in behind Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez in the rotation.

Of course, that’s assuming Sanchez is able to recover from the blister and fingernail problems that kept him on the disabled list for much of the season.  A full offseason of recovery time would theoretically have Sanchez ready to go for Spring Training, though given the unpredictable nature of his recurring injury, re-signing Estrada was particularly important for the Jays.

Sanchez’s blister was essentially a metaphor for the entire 2017 Blue Jays season.  The team was simply never able to get rolling due to a swath of injuries and a lack of performance from most of the players who were able to stay healthy.  The starting rotation couldn’t duplicate its 2016 success, and the lineup delivered some of the poorest offensive numbers of any team in baseball.  A 2-11 start put the Jays behind the eight ball from the very beginning, and the club wasn’t able to achieve as much as a .500 record at any point during the year.

Better health will only go so far in solving the Jays’ problems.  The team can reasonably count on Donaldson, Happ, and Russell Martin delivering closer to full seasons, though Martin turns 35 in February.  Sanchez’s status is yet to be determined, and the substantial injury histories of Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis and Steve Pearce make them question marks rather than reliable regulars for next year’s lineup.

As one might expect in the wake of such a season, GM Ross Atkins has stated that adding roster depth is a big priority for the club.  The challenge will be in deciding where to acquire that depth, since the Jays are thin at several positions and don’t have much in the way of MLB-ready talent at the upper levels of the minors.

One such area is starting pitching, as the Blue Jays don’t have a fifth starter lined up.  Joe Biagini is the current favorite for the job but was inconsistent as a starter last season. Tom Koehler (if he isn’t non-tendered) or prospect Ryan Borucki could be candidates, while other internal options like Chris Rowley seem more like minor league depth options.  The case could also be made that Biagini and Koehler are better utilized as relievers.

Between the fifth starter opening and Sanchez’s blister concerns, the Blue Jays could have cause to add a veteran starter on a short-term deal.  Jason Vargas, CC Sabathia, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister, and familiar face Brett Anderson are a few of the experienced arms available in free agency, though with Estrada and Happ both under contract for just one more year, I’d argue that Toronto could make a bigger splash for a front-of-the-rotation type.  Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta seem like long shots, but the Jays have already been cited as a likely suitor for Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn is another second-tier rotation arm who would require a substantial, but not a bank-breaking multi-year contract.

Of course, Shohei Otani would be a great fit for Toronto, as he would in the rotation of every other MLB team.  The Jays’ interest in Otani is known, though it doesn’t seem like they are frontrunners for his services, if he is even made available to MLB teams at all this winter (which is looking less clear than ever).  If Otani did sign with the Jays, one would think the team would look to trade Kendrys Morales (even while eating some money in a deal) to free up the DH spot for Otani to get at-bats.

Even without an Otani signing, the idea of dealing Morales or another veteran regular may still have to be explored.  Morales and Tulowitzki have little to no trade value given their poor 2017 seasons and the money remaining on their contracts; Martin is also owed $40MM through the next two years, and there aren’t many contenders in need of catching help.

Atkins has said that the Jays aren’t looking to trade from their MLB roster, though that may be a necessity given their lack of minor league trade chips (and obviously top prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette aren’t going anywhere).  A rebuilding team could have interest in Travis given his youth and the potential he’s shown when he has been able to play.  Justin Smoak’s breakout year turned his contract into a bargain, and Toronto could look to sell high on him, though teams could prefer to just sign a free agent first baseman rather than make a trade.  Teams could be interested in Kevin Pillar’s elite center field glove, and the Jays could conceivably replace Pillar in center field with Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Alford.

The biggest trade chip, of course, is Donaldson, though he reportedly isn’t on the table as a trade candidate since the Jays plan to contend next year.  The star third baseman has expressed interest in an extension that would keep him in Toronto beyond 2018, though if contract talks fail to materialize over the winter, trade speculation will only increase.  The Cardinals are known to be one of several teams interested in Donaldson’s services, and they’re a particularly interesting potential trade partner since they can offer outfielders and multi-positional infielders.  Even if Donaldson isn’t up for discussion, I’d imagine the Jays will have some talks with the Cards this winter.

These may seem like bold moves for a team that doesn’t seem to be planning any sort of huge shakeup.  That said, if the Jays intend to add (in the words of president/CEO Mark Shapiro) “Durability.  Athleticism. Flexibility,” to the roster, one way to achieve those goals is to move some of the players that don’t fit those categories.  Trading Travis, for instance, would make it easier for the Jays to sign a multi-position infielder like Eduardo Nunez, as Toronto could then offer Nunez regular time at second base and then have the option of bouncing him around the diamond as the situation warrants.  As mentioned, Morales couldn’t be dealt without eating a big chunk of the $23MM remaining on his contract, though moving a DH-only player who posted below-average hitting numbers last year would go a long way to giving the Blue Jays a more well-rounded roster.

If Toronto eschews bigger moves in search of pure depth additions, someone like Stephen Drew stands out as a left-handed hitting utility infield option.  Backup catcher is a notable area of need, as Jays backup catchers combined for -1.5 fWAR last year — a particular issue given that Martin played in just 91 games.  Miguel Montero struggled badly after joining the Jays last summer and isn’t likely to be re-signed.

The corner outfield positions are the most obvious areas to add much-needed speed and left-handed hitting into the mix.  The team has already confirmed that it won’t be picking up its end of Jose Bautista’s mutual option, ending the franchise icon’s tenure in Toronto on a sour (-0.5 fWAR) note.  This leaves Pearce as the top option in left field and Hernandez as the current favorite in right field after his impressive September performance.  Alford and Ezequiel Carrera are also in the mix as platoon or backup options, with former top prospect Dalton Pompey slated for Triple-A after missing almost all of 2017 due to a concussion and a knee injury.

There is clearly room for improvement here, as Pearce and the youngsters could be slated for left field and a new face could play right.  Jay Bruce has been a Blue Jays target in the past and would bring some much-needed left-handed pop to right field, so Toronto is likely to check in on his availability in free agency.  Left-handed bats like Curtis Granderson or Jon Jay aren’t quite ideal for everyday roles, though the Jays can use Pearce and Hernandez as their corner outfielders when a southpaw is on the mound.  If the Indians decided to decline their club option on Michael Brantley in the wake of Brantley’s recent ankle surgery, you’d expect Atkins and Shapiro to be all over Brantley given their past Cleveland ties.

Beyond free agents, teams like the Marlins, Indians, White Sox and (as mentioned) the Cardinals all could have outfielders for sale this winter.  Jays fans may cringe at the idea of another big trade with the Marlins, but since Toronto had some interest in Dee Gordon last summer, Miami fits as a trade partner that could address the Jays’ needs at both second base and in the outfield in a single blockbuster.  This is just my speculation, however — the Blue Jays may not have the prospects necessary to attract the Marlins’ attention on their star outfielders, and the Jays reportedly balked at Gordon’s remaining salary ($38MM through 2020).

Speaking of salary, the Jays have approximately $142.5 MM tied up in 19 players (eight guaranteed salaries and their 11-player arbitration class) for next season.  This gives them some room to spend if they approach their $163.3MM payroll from last Opening Day, though even with Bautista off the books, big arb raises for Donaldson, Pillar, Stroman, Koehler, and Roberto Osuna will wipe out a lot of those savings.  Koehler’s $6MM arbitration price tag is probably too high for the Jays’ liking, though they could look to re-sign him at a lower salary given his potential value as a swingman, multi-inning reliever, or fifth starter candidate.

Now that Osuna’s strong numbers no longer come with the benefit of a pre-arbitration salary, there will likely be some trade talk surrounding the 22-year-old closer.  Osuna had a career-high 3.38 ERA and ten blown saves in 2017 while also dealing with some anxiety issues.  S everal advanced metrics, though, indicate that the young closer was as dominant as ever last season and just ran into some bad luck (only a 59.5% strand rate) and perhaps some complications from increased usage of a cutter rather than his normal fastball-heavy arsenal.  While teams will surely approach the Blue Jays with offers, it would be a surprise to see Osuna dealt given that his salary is still quite reasonable for a closer with his track record.

The Jays also need Osuna to anchor a bullpen that posted some decent numbers last year despite being heavily overworked; Jays relievers pitched 596 2/3 innings, the third-most of any club in baseball.  Beyond Osuna, Toronto has some solid options on hand (Danny Barnes, Dominic Leone, Ryan Tepera, Carlos Ramirez) and could be further bolstered depending on what happens with Biagini or Koehler.  Aaron Loup is the only southpaw in the pen, so expect the Jays to check in on left-handed relievers this winter.  The club could look to replicate its low-cost signings of Joe Smith and J.P. Howell from last offseason, hoping for a better than their .500 return — Smith pitched well and was flipped at the trade deadline, while Howell battled injuries and was released in August.

The Atkins/Shapiro regime hasn’t made many big splashes in its two offseasons running the front office, though more is required this winter in the wake of the Jays’ disappointing 2017 campaign.  Counting on better health to fix the problems is a big risk, especially since the club’s roster is old enough that decline is just as big a concern as injuries at this point.  As intent as the Blue Jays are on contending, the AL East is competitive enough that another slow start could quickly turn the Jays into deadline sellers.  Some significant roster shuffling is needed for the Jays to make 2017 into an aberration, rather than the first sign that their contention window is closing.

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