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Pitching Rumors: Reds, Bauer, Yanks, Phils, MadBum, Greene, Fish, Nats

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The Reds just agreed to acquire right-hander Trevor Bauer from the Indians on Tuesday evening. Could the Reds now turn around and flip Bauer by Wednesday’s trade deadline? Not likely, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Meanwhile, two of Bauer’s new Cincinnati rotation mates – Alex Wood and the previously reported Tanner Roark – have drawn interest from the Phillies. Philly has “taken a very close look at” Wood, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Wood finally just made his season debut Sunday after months of back troubles, but the non-contending Reds could now attempt to get what they can for the pending free agent. The 28-year-old Wood, who’s on a $9.65MM salary, posted quality production with the Braves and Dodgers from 2013-18.

A smorgasbord of other pitcher-related rumors…

  • Despite their recent run of excellence, the Giants are fielding calls and “engaging in negotiations” for starter Madison Bumgarner and reliever Will Smith, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The Astros are reportedly among the teams chasing Bumgarner, but Smith is the more likely of the two to find himself in a new uniform by Wednesday, Schulman suggests. Although he’s a pending free agent, it’s likely Smith would bring back a significant return. He’s affordable ($4.225MM salary) and enjoying a marvelous season as the Giants’ closer.
  • Back to Bauer, who was reportedly one of the Yankees’ preferred targets in their search for starting help. That may have been overblown, though, as the Yankees and Indians didn’t engage in “serious talks” over Bauer, Andy Martino of SNY relays.
  • The asking price for Tigers closer Shane Greene is “far more reasonable” than the requests for other high-end relievers around the league, Feinsand tweets. Feinsand points to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Kirby Yates as relievers who would be much harder to acquire, which isn’t surprising.
  • Reliever Nick Anderson is among Marlins hurlers garnering interest, though he’ll be difficult to pry loose, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. As a 29-year-old rookie, the hard-throwing Anderson has put up a 3.92 ERA with a much better 2.73 FIP in 43 2/3 frames this season. While Anderson has only induced ground balls at a 27.3 percent clip, he has helped offset that by racking up a prodigious 14.2 strikeouts against 3.3 walks per nine. Adding to his value, Anderson’s on a league-minimum salary and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 season.
  • The Giants and Nationals “have discussed” southpaw Drew Pomeranz, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Pomeranz, whom the Giants recently demoted to their bullpen amid a rough season, has also been drawing interest from elsewhere in recent days.

Latest On Matthew Boyd

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Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd has been among the most chatted-about players in baseball in recent months. But with the deadline approaching, it seems the likelihood of a deal is waning.

It’s not that the 28-year-old’s ERA is on the rise — though it has been. He’s still sitting under four earned per nine for the year, with highly promising peripherals (in particular: 12.1 K/9 vs. 2.0 BB/9) that suggest he’s in the midst of a real breakout.

The issue seems to be one of valuation, with the Tigers declining to slash a lofty asking price. Contenders, perhaps still hoping to score a deal from Detroit or another sell-side outfit, are still experiencing sticker shock.

At the moment, Boyd seems “likely to stay put” in Detroit Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. It appears that the Tigers have yet to receive an “enticing offer,” or at least one enticing enough to force the Tigers’ hand on a pitcher who comes with three future seasons of arbitration control. Put differently, the Tigers “seem resolved” not to move Boyd, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link).

It seems clear that the Detroit club will not be parting with Boyd if it doesn’t get an offer that satisfies a certain, fairly lofty threshold. But presumably the club would reconsider its stance if a contender comes calling with more appealing prospect chips.

Rivals are evidently not giving up on Boyd entirely. The Astros have “continued interest” in the southpaw, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter), though there’s no indication that the Houston org will stretch its offer to include top prospect Kyle Tucker — the player the Tigers have evidently tried to achieve in initial talks.

Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez

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The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).

While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:

  • Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
  • While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
  • If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.

Indians Showing Interest In Justin Smoak, Nicholas Castellanos

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10:19am: Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is also a possible target for the Indians, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It is not clear from the report whether the teams are engaged in talks.

9:38am: The Indians are “among [the] teams looking at” Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak, a switch-hitter, is earning $8MM this year before reaching free agency at season’s end.

It’s not surprising to see the Cleveland organization exploring possible offensive-oriented additions. The club has received a big contribution from Carlos Santana at first base, but hasn’t settled on a steady designated hitter.

Plugging in the 32-year-old Smoak would make for a nice lineup boost for the Indians. Smoak is slashing .215/.357/.427 this year with 18 long balls in 359 plate appearances. That’s shy of his output in the preceding two seasons, but still handily above-average production.

No doubt the Indians also see a bit of an opportunity to buy low on a player that may not draw much demand elsewhere, due in no small part to the lack of American League buyers and his defensive limitations. Smoak is drawing walks at a hefty rate (16.7%) and seems rather unfortunate to carry only a .220 batting average on balls in play. Statcast credits him with a big .388 xwOBA based upon the quality of contact he has made, which is much higher than his .342 wOBA.

Even as the Indians consider scenarios in which they’d part with starter Trevor Bauer, they’re hardly looking at a sell-off. The club weathered a tough start to the season and presently sits just two games back of the Twins.

Tigers Place Bobby Wilson On Outright Waivers; Will Select Jake Rogers

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The Tigers placed catcher Bobby Wilson on outright waivers Saturday, according to manager Ron Gardenhire (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). There is a 72-hour window for a team to claim Wilson. If no one grabs him by Tuesday afternoon, Wilson can either accept an outright assignment to Triple-A Toledo or elect free agency.

The Tigers are clearing out Wilson to make room for catcher prospect Jake Rogers, whom they’re poised to select from Toledo, McCosky reports. A third-round pick of the Astros in 2016, Rogers joined the Tigers a year later as part of their return for ace Justin Verlander.

The 24-year-old Rogers is known for his defensive prowess, but he raked at the Double-A level this season en route to a promotion to Triple-A ball. Since joining Toledo’s roster, Rogers has batted .223/.321/.458 (95 wRC+) with nine home runs in 191 plate appearances. In its most recent assessment of the Tigers’ farm system, Baseball America (subscription link) rated Rogers as the organization’s 13th-best prospect and wrote that he could “help Detroit in the near future.”

There is a realistic path to plenty of immediate playing time for Rogers, as Wilson, John Hicks and the now-injured Grayson Greiner have all endured horrific offensive seasons. Tigers catchers have combined for a league-worst 30 wRC+, meaning they’ve been about as useful at the plate as many pitchers. No Detroit backstop has been worse with the bat than Wilson, owner of a .091/.130/.114 line (minus-41 wRC+) in 47 plate appearances since the team promoted him to take Greiner’s place in mid-June. While the well-traveled 36-year-old has never been much of a hitter, the Tigers certainly expected better than what they’ve gotten from Wilson.

Pitching Chatter: Vazquez, Diaz, Ray, Colome, Greene

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As the Dodgers continue to try to pry closer Felipe Vazquez loose from the Pirates, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link) that the sides are at a bit of an impasse. It seems the Bucs would (quite understandably) like to receive soaring L.A. prospect Gavin Lux, a versatile infielder who has completely obliterated Triple-A pitching (.474/.553/.918 in 114 plate appearances with eight home runs and a 17:17 K/BB ratio) since a mid-season promotion. The clubs may well be engaged in a bit of a staring contest as the deadline draws near.

More news and rumors from the pitching market …

  • The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.
  • Rival organizations “fully expect” the Diamondbacks to deal southpaw Robbie Ray, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Arizona GM Mike Hazen continued to acknowledge his club’s tricky middle ground while avoiding a firm commitment to a particular course of action, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The top baseball ops man did acknowledge that there’s a possibility the team could pull off enough sell-side moves that it wouldn’t make sense to reload in the offseason. At the moment, the Brewers, Astros, and Yankees are among the teams with active talks or interest in Ray, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
  • With a real shot at a much-anticipated return to the top of the heap in the NL Central, the Cardinals could yet swing a big deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the St. Louis ballclub is interested in a controllable starter. Beyond that, the Cards’ precise plans remain a bit difficult to ascertain. The club is interested in lefty relief pitching, though that’s a trade deadline staple for many contenders. We haven’t seen the team connected prominently to any high-end hurlers, but a bold move seems tempting.
  • We’ve seen the Yankees connected to a wide variety of hurlers in recent weeks, with the club focused primarily on starters but also entertaining relief upgrades. They’ve recently chatted with the Tigers about old friend Shane Greene, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). Most contenders are no doubt at least checking in on Greene, who’s among the likeliest players in baseball to be traded in the coming days.
  • Similarly, the Phillies have cast an exceedingly broad net. Their relief situation remains problematic; now, there are indications that David Robertson’s rehab may drag into September, as Nightengale was among those to tweet. Another name to add to the list of Phils possibilities: Alex Colome of the White Sox. Morosi tweets that there’s “continued interest” on the part of the Philadelphia organization.

Detroit’s Underrated Trade Chip

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Owners of a major league-worst 30-68 record, the Tigers figure to be one of baseball’s most active sellers prior to next Wednesday’s trade deadline. Three of their players – starter Matthew Boyd, reliever Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos – stand among the most discussed trade chips in baseball. But they’re likely not the only Tigers who are on other teams’ radars as the deadline approaches. The club also has an underrated reliever, right-hander Buck Farmer, it could market.

As is the case with Boyd, who’s under control for the next few years, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to deal Farmer. He’s earning a minimal salary right now and won’t make his first of three potential trips through the arbitration process until the offseason. That said, Farmer’s a soon-to-be 29-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and won’t in the immediate future, which makes him a sensible piece for Detroit to consider parting with in the next few days.

Farmer has been a member of the Tigers since they chose the ex-Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket in the fifth round of the 2013 draft. Although he wasn’t a particularly high selection, Farmer climbed up the team’s system to become the Tigers’ second-ranked prospect at Baseball America after the 2014 season, during which he briefly debuted in the bigs. At the time, BA contended Farmer could become a useful back-of-the-rotation starter, though it noted the Tigers may decide he’s better off in the bullpen.

Five years later, Farmer has indeed found his niche in Detroit’s relief corps. After a few seasons of posting mediocre to worse numbers as a starter and reliever, Farmer has morphed into a pleasant surprise this year. Farmer has logged a 3.70 ERA across 41 1/3 innings (45 appearances, one start) thus far. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but Farmer’s strikeout and walk rates (10.67 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) are impressive, as is his 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate, while his 3.20 FIP, 3.36 SIERA and 3.37 xFIP all suggest he has deserved better in the run prevention department. He’s generating groundballs at a 51.4 percent clip, which is exactly 11 percent higher than the GB rate he recorded over a full season of relief work last year. Along with inducing grounders at a below-average rate over 69 1/3 frames then, Farmer put up just 7.4 K/9 against 5.32 BB/9, helping lead to an unspectacular 4.15 ERA/4.46 FIP.

Like last year, Farmer has continued to fire four-seam fastballs at around 95 mph. However, Farmer has somewhat changed his pitch mix since then, per Statcast. He utilized his four-seamer approximately 57 percent of the time in 2018, but it’s down to just over 48 percent now. Meantime, Farmer’s slider usage has climbed significantly – from 17 percent to 27 – while his changeup reliance has continued to hover around the mid-20 percent range. The adjustment to Farmer’s repertoire has worked out. While batters have destroyed his fastball (.436 weighted on-base average, .422 xwOBA), they’ve done next to nothing against his slider (.240/.148) and change (.224/.271). Thanks largely to his hittable heater, Farmer ranks in the basement of the league (its sixth percentile) in hard-hit rate against. Still, his quality offspeed offerings have enabled Farmer to limit hitters to a respectable .320 wOBA/.313 xwOBA overall.

In Farmer, an acquiring team wouldn’t exactly be landing the most exciting option prior to the deadline. Nevertheless, Farmer’s an effective, cheap, controllable reliever who has helped the Tigers this year and would likely aid a contender. It would make sense for Detroit to consider selling high on Farmer in the coming days, and it would be logical for better teams to come calling.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Nationals’ Bullpen Pursuits

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4:10pm: The Nats are also in touch with the Blue Jays regarding their relief arms, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Both Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson are said to be of interest to D.C.

11:40am: The Nationals are known to be on the lookout for multiple relievers following their meteoric rise back up the standings, and ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the team’s preference is to add a left-handed reliever. General manager Mike Rizzo won’t limit himself to only southpaws, though, and to that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Nationals are in active pursuit of White Sox righty Alex Colome and Tigers righty Shane Greene.

Washington’s interest in Greene isn’t new; it’s been reported on multiple times in the past and is also a relatively obvious match simply from a common sense standpoint. The Nationals figure to have checked in on virtually every reliever’s asking price by now, and MLB.com’s Jamal Collier recently reported that the Tigers made the sky-high ask of top shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom in initial talks with the Nationals. One can hardly blame the Tigers for aiming high, but that price point indeed seems rather lofty. Still, the fact that Washington is still showing interest suggests that the two sides could come to terms on a deal just yet.

Whether the White Sox were keen on moving Colome earlier this month wasn’t clear, but the South Siders’ poor play of late has dropped them to 10 games under .500. The club is making efforts to move beyond its rebuild and plans to make a push in 2020, so perhaps the preference is to retain Colome. Still, he’ll likely top $10MM in arbitration earnings next season, so it’d also be reasonable for Chicago to cash in if GM Rick Hahn can find a trade partner willing to make a decent offer.

Both Greene and Colome are controlled through the 2020 season, with Greene’s $4MM salary checking in considerably lower than Colome’s $7.325MM rate. As such, even though Greene is having a better season, his salary next year will likely be more affordable.

In 37 innings, Greene has posted a pristine 1.22 ERA with 10.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 and a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate. Colome, meanwhile, has a rather pedestrian 7.0 K/9 mark against 2.8 BB/9 and 0.93 HR/9. Both closers have benefited tremendously from unsustainable averages on balls in play (.180 for Greene and .153 for Colome) and strand rates near 83 percent. Greene’s lower salary and superior strikeout and ground-ball rates make him to more appealing of the pair but also mean that he’ll probably come with a higher asking price. And even with some degree of regression likely for both pitchers, each is still a quality arm who’d give the Nats a much-needed upgrade to a setup corps that has been problematic all season long.

Quick Hits: Hamels, Jeimer, A’s, Lucroy, Rays, Brewers

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Cubs left-hander Cole Hamels will “likely” return from the injured list Aug. 2 or 3 if he gets through one more rehab start unscathed, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Having suffered a left oblique strain June 28, it appears the 35-year-old will end up missing just over a month. The Cubs have tread water without Hamels, going 11-10 since he incurred his injury, which has been enough to stay atop the NL Central. They’re leading the division thanks in no small part to Hamels, who has recorded a 2.98 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.76 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 99 2/3 innings.

More from around baseball…

  • Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario has begun getting reps at first base at the urging of general manager Al Avila and assistant GM David Chadd, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News explains. The decision comes with Triple-A third baseman Dawel Lugo “likely” on his way back to the majors soon, infield prospect Isaac Paredes soaring through the Tigers’ system and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos a strong bet to leave before the trade deadline, McCosky notes. Once Castellanos is out of the picture, the Tigers figure to use at least one of their current first base options – Harold Castro and Brandon Dixon – in right. Candelario has only played one major league game at first, though the 25-year-old has lined up there 35 times in the minors. Regardless of position, this has been a disappointing season for Candelario – who, along with Paredes – joined the Tigers in a trade with the Cubs in July 2017. Candelario was a top 100 prospect who was immediately successful in the majors, but he has batted just .213/.309/.360 (79 wRC+) with seven home runs in 272 plate appearances this year. To his credit, though, Candelario has hit far better since the Tigers demoted him to Toledo on May 15 and then recalled him June 26.
  • Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea – out since he underwent shoulder surgery last September – survived a 76-pitch rehab start with Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Manaea struggled over 4 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs and three HRs, but the A’s are encouraged that he remains on track to return to the majors by the second week of August. In the meantime, Manaea’s scheduled for two more Triple-A starts. He’ll progress to 90 pitches in his next outing and then 100 in what should be his final minors start of the year. In further good news for Oakland, outfielder Stephen Piscotty is slated to begin a rehab stint over the weekend. A sprained right MCL has shelved Piscotty since June 30.
  • Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy will start a rehab assignment at the High-A level Friday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com relays. The Angels plan to re-evaluate Lucroy after he plays two games. The 33-year-old has been out since he bore the brunt of a brutal home plate collision with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick on July 7. The league issued Marisnick a two-game suspension for plowing into Lucroy, who suffered a concussion and a broken nose. Lucroy also had to undergo surgery on his nasal fracture.
  • Baseball America released its latest organizational talent rankings on Thursday (subscription required). Led by shortstop Wander Franco, whom BA ranks as the game’s best prospect, the Rays check in at No. 1. However, even without Franco, BA contends the Rays would still have baseball’s premier farm system. Beyond Franco, the club boasts eight other top 100 prospects. The Brewers don’t have any, on the other hand, making them the outlet’s last-ranked org. As BA points out, though, superb rookie second baseman Keston Hiura did just graduate from Milwaukee’s system.

Giants Less Likely To Trade Bumgarner, Could Be Deadline Buyers

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9:41pm: It “does not appear” the Giants are targeting Boyd, Feinsand tweets. The San Francisco scout who watched Boyd’s start was on hand to advance scout the Phillies, whom the Giants play seven times from July 30 to Aug. 11, per Feinsand.

6:37pm: Once seen as one of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the July 31 deadline, Madison Bumgarner may now stay put entirely since the Giants’ improbable 17-4 record over their last 21 games has put the club firmly back into the NL wild card race.

Conflicting reports on Bumgarner’s status come from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman.  Feinsand heard from a source earlier today that “it’s all but certain” the Giants would hang onto Bumgarner through the trade deadline, while Schulman heard from a source of his own that no firm decision has been made by the front office about Bumgarner’s status, and that reports stating otherwise are “inaccurate.”

Quite a bit still seems to be in flux in the Bay Area, as if nothing else, the Giants certainly don’t seem to be the full-fledged deadline sellers that they appeared to be just a few weeks.  In fact, Feinsand writes that the Giants could even look to start adding players if the team has a successful series against the Padres over the weekend.  To this end, San Francisco “had a high-level scout” watching the most recent start of Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets.

Bumgarner’s recent form has been a major factor in the Giants’ hot streak, as the southpaw has a 2.00 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just six walks over his last six starts (36 innings).  To be clear, the odds are still against San Francisco’s chances at reaching the postseason, and with Bumgarner’s value perhaps at a peak, there is a definite argument to be made that trading Bumgarner for a large haul of prospects is the wiser long-term move for a Giants team that is short on minor league depth.  On the other hand, trading Bumgarner now would also be a strongly unpopular move amongst both the players and the fanbase, who have all been understandably energized by this 21-game surge.

It’s not surprising that the Giants front office is trying to stay as flexible as possible in weighing deals of Bumgarner, Will Smith, Tony Watson, and other major trade chips.  There’s little point in declaring oneself as a deadline buyer now, when a four-game losing streak would put San Francisco right back into sell mode.  As Schulman noted in follow-up tweets, the Giants could also look to deal from their bullpen surplus for a player who could help them win now.  This is less likely to be a rental player, but perhaps someone like Boyd, who is controlled through the 2022 season.

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