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Brown: Astros “Not Actively” Pursuing Starting Pitching

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There was a time late last week when it seemed as if Blake Snell might become an Astro. On Friday evening, reports emerged that Houston was making a push for the defending NL Cy Young winner. Ultimately, the team balked at paying upwards of $30MM per season, and Snell signed a $62MM guarnatee with the Giants. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Astros’ offer was for two years at less than $50MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown now tells Chandler Rome of the Athletic that while the front office won’t rule out adding a starter, they’re “not actively doing anything” on that front. Brown made similar comments about the team’s comfort with the rotation before their late effort to land Snell, so that doesn’t rule out a move. At the same time, the GM suggested Snell was something of a unique case.

“It’s a different guy. If we have a bunch of guys that are similar to the other guys that are available, why go after them? Why pay more money for the same production? We feel like if we get Snell, that’s a huge piece, so you have to be on the market for a guy that’s a huge piece like that,” Brown said. “But the other guys that are available, they compare to all of our guys that we have depth with. I wouldn’t want to pay more money and we (already) got a guy right around the minimum or a little bit more. That wouldn’t be smart.”

That’s not really true of Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA and has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the past three seasons. Still, there hasn’t been any indication that Houston has had substantive interest in the southpaw at any point this offseason. It’s more debatable whether they’d get an upgrade from any of the other unsigned starting pitchers, a group led by Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. Yet even if someone like Lorenzen isn’t a marked improvement over Houston’s in-house starters, there’d be some merit to bringing in another pitcher to cover against early-season injuries.

The Astros entered camp knowing that Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. wouldn’t be factors until midway through the season. Justin Verlander is a couple weeks behind schedule due to shoulder soreness and will start the year on the injured list. That’s now also true of José Urquidy, who was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his forearm yesterday.

While forearm strains can be precursors to more serious injuries, Urquidy provided reporters with a positive update this afternoon. The righty said that multiple evaluations indicated his UCL was fully intact and that imaging mainly revealed muscular inflammation in his forearm (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Urquidy expressed his hope he could begin a throwing program within 10-14 days.

That won’t keep him off the injured list but addresses any fear the team might’ve had about Urquidy possibly needing surgery. Brown told Rome that the Astros expect Urquidy will be out of action for a little more than a month all told. Houston’s season-opening starting staff should be led by Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France. Right-handers Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco are the top options for the #5 role if the Astros don’t go outside the organization.

Jose Urquidy Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, Will Open Season On Injured List

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy has been diagnosed with a strained muscle in his forearm and will open the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Rome notes that Espada was asked specifically about Urquidy’s ulnar collateral ligament but replied that the only information he’s received is that there’s a forearm strain. Urquidy, who pulled himself from his most recent spring start due to elbow pain and underwent an MRI, will be shut down from throwing for the next few days.

Urquidy joins Justin Verlander (shoulder discomfort), Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery last May) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery last June) as Astros starters on the injured list to begin the season. Left-hander Framber Valdez has already been named the Opening Day starter, and he’ll likely be joined on the starting staff by righties Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and J.P. France.

Injuries have mounted for the Astros in spring training, and they’ll now have nearly an entire MLB rotation (and a good one, at that) on their 15-day IL to open the year. The ’Stros also announced early in camp that setup man Kendall Graveman would miss the season due to shoulder surgery — a move that prompted them to pivot and sign Josh Hader to a five-year contract in free agency.

There’s been talk of a similar late grab on the rotation side of things. As recently as Friday, the ’Stros were reported to be in “serious” pursuit of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but there’s been some doubt cast on the team’s willingness to pay Snell a $30MM annual salary. Doing so would push Houston into the third tier of luxury penalization, resulting in just over $12MM of taxes (on top of Snell’s actual salary). It’d also cause Houston’s top pick in next year’s draft to drop by 10 places and would require the Astros to forfeit their second-highest pick (currently in the third round, as they forfeited their second-rounder to sign Hader) as well as $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency.

For Urquidy, this will mark the third time in four seasons he’ll head to the injured list. In 2021, a pair of shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings. He was healthy enough to avoid the IL entirely and pitch in 29 games (28 starts) for Houston in 2022, but last year saw a return of some shoulder pain. Urquidy was placed on the injured list on May 1 and didn’t return until Aug. 6, ultimately pitching just 63 innings on the year.

When he’s healthy, there’s little doubt Urquidy is a quality big league pitcher. He was dinged for a 5.29 ERA in last year’s relatively small sample and likely wasn’t pitching at 100% prior to that IL stint, but he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every other season of his career. In 405 big league innings, Urquidy has a solid 3.98 earned run average with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate but a very strong 5.8% walk rate. As an undersized righty (6’0″) with fly-ball tendencies and an average fastball, he’s susceptible to home runs  (1.49 HR/9). But Urquidy’s plus changeup has helped him neutralize lefties throughout his career, holding them to an awful  .203/.255/.364 slash.

It’s not yet clear how long Urquidy will spend on the shelf, but pairing his absence with that of Verlander —  plus the previously known season-opening IL stints for Garcia and McCullers — has already begun to test the Astros’ rotation depth. Add in that right-hander Shawn Dubin has yet to pitch this spring due to shoulder discomfort of his own, and Houston is all the more thin in that department. Swingman Brandon Bielak would probably be the next man up in the event of a further injury, and after him the Astros don’t even have another healthy starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti has been mentioned as a possible option, though he’d need to be selected to the 40-man roster.

As such, even if it’s not Snell or Jordan Montgomery, it seems as though the Astros would make sense for further pitching reinforcements. General manager Dana Brown has gone back and forth on the team’s stance. When announcing that Verlander would open the year on the IL, he suggested the team wasn’t in the market for additional rotation help. Last week, after Urquidy pulled himself after 43 pitches when he’d been slated to throw around 60, Brown reversed course and said he’s “always” in the market for rotation help and even went so far as to acknowledge that so long as Snell remained on the market, the Astros would be checking in on his price tag and where things stood.

If not Snell or Montgomery, the market offers a handful of veteran names. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are both free agents, as is old friend Zack Greinke. There will also be a handful of options hitting the market late in camp, as veterans who are on non-roster deals with other teams are released or opt out of those deals upon being informed they won’t make the club. There’ll also be some arms available via the DFA market, as teams make corresponding moves to set their 40-man rosters. Some form of rotation addition seems quite plausible for Houston in the next ten days.

Astros Reportedly “Long-Shots” To Land Blake Snell

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The Astros have been the buzz of the baseball world this weekend following reporting that indicated the club was in “serious pursuit” of the top remaining free agent, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale earlier today indicates that the club may be a “long-shot” to ultimately land the southpaw, however. Nightengale reports that the club has “balked” at the asking price from Snell’s camp, which he adds stands at a $60MM guarantee over two years that includes an opt-out following the 2024 season. Houston, Nightengale adds, is conscious of being pushed over an additional luxury tax threshold by a Snell deal with an AAV in the $30MM range. Nightengale goes on to suggest that the Giants currently appear to be the favorites for Snell’s services, though he makes clear that San Francisco has been waiting for Snell’s price to drop even as they’ve remained engaged with the southpaw.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would be worried about stomaching a $30MM annual commitment for Snell’s services. The club is already in unprecedented territory with regards to its player payroll; Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes that Houston has never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. That figure reaches nearly $256MM for luxury tax purposes, just over $1MM shy of the second, $257MM tax threshold.

Virtually any addition to the club’s payroll at any point this season would push them past that level, but a more significant addition such as Snell would leave the club at risk of going over the third threshold, which stands at $277MM for the 2024 season. While the first two brackets of the luxury tax come with only financial considerations, the penalties get stiffer when a clubs surpasses the third threshold. Those penalties most notably include the club’s highest pick in the following year’s draft being pushed back ten places, which is further compounded by an associated cut to the club’s bonus pool for signing their draft picks that year. Given the elevated costs involved with a pursuit of Snell, it was hardly surprising when GM Dana Brown suggested that the club wasn’t interested in pursuing additional starting pitching this spring, even name-dropping Snell specifically as a player the club would “love to have” but didn’t expect to sign.

Of course, it’s hard to overstate just how impactful Snell could be for the Astros rotation even in spite of those ancillary concerns. Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are both set to open the season on the injured list and miss considerable time this season. They’ll also be joined at least for the early days of the campaign by veteran ace Justin Verlander, whose start to the season has been delayed soreness in his right shoulder. Those injuries leave the club’s rotation depth in an tough spot entering the season, and a recent injury scare regarding Jose Urquidy has only exacerbated those concerns. KRPC2’s Ari Alexander reported recently that Urquidy has been dealing with “forearm stiffness” per a source, while manager Joe Espada told reporters yesterday that the right-hander has flown back to Houston from the club’s spring complex in Florida to meet with team doctors.

Losing Urquidy could leave the club to rely on depth options such as Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco behind a front-of-the-rotation duo featuring Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, at least for the start of the season. Adding Snell to that mix would not only give the club much-needed additional pitching depth early in the season, but would also add an impactful, playoff-caliber arm to a rotation that saw each of Verlander, Valdez, and Javier take steps back in 2023 from the 2022 form that saw the group stand among the very best starting trios in baseball that year. While Snell certainly has flashed inconsistencies of his own throughout his career, posting a relatively pedestrian 3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP from 2019 to 2022, he’s nonetheless ranged from a dependable mid-rotation arm to an elite, front-of-the-rotation flamethrower throughout his eight years in the majors and would be a surefire upgrade to an Astros club looking to make an eighth consecutive postseason appearance this fall.

On the other hand, Snell would provide all those same benefits to the Giants. San Francisco has had a busy offseason, bringing in Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler in the managers’ chair while adding the likes of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jordan Hicks in free agency. With that being said, the club has done little to address a rotation mix that delivered the least innings among all major league clubs last year. Hicks has moved from the bullpen into the rotation since joining San Francisco, and the club could also receive a boost from trade acquisition Robbie Ray midseason upon his return from Tommy John surgery sometimes this summer. With Ray, Alex Cobb, and Tristan Beck all set to open the season on the injured list, however, it leaves the club with minimal certainty in the rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb.

Given how much the club would benefit from another front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Webb, it’s not a surprise that the Giants continue to be involved in Snell’s market. Despite comments from club chairman Greg Johnson back in February that suggested the club planned to rely on young rotation arms such as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn entering the 2024 season, reporting has indicated that San Francisco has remained in the mix for Snell in recent weeks, though the club has signaled that it did not anticipate further major additions after signing Chapman earlier this month.

While it’s unclear how far Snell’s price would have to fall for San Francisco to pounce, the club’s books figure to have far more flexibility than those in Houston. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $177MM entering the 2024 season, likely leaving ample room for the club to fit Snell into the budget. While the club’s luxury tax payroll stands at a somewhat higher $226MM figure, even an AAV approaching Snell’s reported $30MM asking price would leave the club just a touch under the second luxury tax threshold.

Astros In “Serious Pursuit” Of Blake Snell

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The Astros are facing various questions around the health of their rotation and are now in “serious pursuit” of Blake Snell, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

At this point, it’s unclear if any kind of deal is close but it’s a noteworthy development and resembles an earlier situation for the Astros. Back in January, their bullpen took a hit when Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery. Astros general manager Dana Brown initially downplayed the club’s desire to go out and sign free agents to address the problem but the club signed closer Josh Hader a few days later.

In the intervening two months, a lot has changed with the rotation. The Astros already knew that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. were going to be starting the year on the injured list, as both underwent elbow surgeries last summer, but this spring has seen a couple more dominos fall. Justin Verlander has been slowed by some right shoulder soreness which doesn’t seem terribly serious but it delayed him enough that he’ll start the season on the injured list. Earlier today, José Urquidy departed his start early due to some pain in his right elbow.

If Urquidy needs to miss time, then the Opening Day rotation would project to include Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown in the front three spots. J.P. France was also slowed by a shoulder issue this spring but seems to perhaps be on track to take over a spot at the back end. That would still leave one rotation spot open and Houston is a bit thin in terms of options to step in there.

Ronel Blanco has just 58 1/3 innings of major league work on his ledger and was only recently moved from being a primary reliever to more of a swing role. Brandon Bielak has a 4.54 ERA in his 174 1/3 innings but with uninspiring peripherals, including an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. Shawn Dubin has just nine innings of major league experience.

It seems the club is considering a notable strike in free agency to get out of this injury hole, similar to their move to grab Hader after Graveman went down. Brown again downplayed the club’s desire to add pitching, including Snell, though that was before Urquidy’s injury surfaced.

Some may question whether Snell is ready to help a club like the Astros since he hasn’t been pitching in official spring games and Opening Day is less than two weeks away. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Snell recently threw 60 pitches over four simulated innings to try to get ready outside of official Spring Training contests. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays the same info, adding that scouts from the Giants and Astros were in attendance.

Snell has lingered on the open market far longer than anyone anticipated coming off a Cy Young season. He turned in a 2.25 ERA over 180 innings with San Diego a year ago. He surely envisioned a long-term pact at the start of the offseason, but a deal to his liking has obviously yet to materialize. At this point, it looks as if he’ll follow in the path of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and turn to a short-term guarantee with opt-outs. Rosenthal and Rome report that he is believed to be seeking a three-year guarantee with a $30-32MM annual salary that would allow him to test free agency after each of the next two seasons.

The cost for the Astros would go beyond whatever it takes to get Snell to sign. They’re into luxury tax territory. RosterResource calculates their 2024 CBT number around $256MM. A contract anywhere near Snell’s expected price would vault them beyond the $257MM second penalization and the third threshold at $277MM.

Houston did not exceed the competitive balance tax a year ago, however. Unlike some other reported Snell suitors (most notably, the Yankees), the Astros are not facing exorbitant fees as repeat payors. They’d be responsible for a 20% tax on their next $1.3MM in spending, followed by a 32% tax on the following $20MM ($6.4MM) and a 62.5% hit on the ensuing $20MM. Signing Snell to a contract with a $32MM average annual value would come with an approximate $13.3MM tax bill for this year.

A Snell signing would also deal a small but not completely insignificant hit to the farm system because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Astros forfeited their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft and relinquished $500K of international signing bonus space to sign Hader. They’d need to surrender another $500K from the international pool and their third-round pick (#102) for Snell. Meanwhile, pushing past the $277MM luxury threshold — which would be all but assured for a Snell signing — would move back Houston’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft by 10 spots.

Jose Urquidy Being Evaluated For Elbow Injury; Astros Remain In Market For Starting Pitching

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy pulled himself from a minor league game after 43 pitches due to pain in his right elbow, manager Joe Espada told reporters (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). He’d been scheduled to throw around 60 pitches.

It’s a concerning development for a Houston club that will see Justin Verlander open the season on the injured list and knows it’ll be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the early portion of the 2024 campaign as well. Prior to this news, it looked as though Urquidy would join Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the Astros’ Opening Day rotation. That’s no sure thing now.

Urquidy, 28, missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with a shoulder injury, which only makes further arm troubles all the more ominous. He pitched to a career-worst 5.29 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound, with the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) and the highest walk rate (9.1%) he’s turned in during any big league season.

Prior to last year’s rough showing, Urquidy was a steady and arguably underrated member of the Houston staff. From 2019-22, he pitched 342 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but an excellent 5.2% walk rate. Durability has been an issue for the right-hander, but he’s been effective more often than not when he’s taken the ball.

The mounting number of injuries on the Houston staff could potentially spur the team to action. General manager Dana Brown said not even two weeks ago that he wasn’t in the market for more starting pitching … only to suggest the opposite to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle this week. Rome, citing a multiple anonymous sources, reported that the ’Stros are indeed still in the market for arms. Brown spoke in generalities when asked about Blake Snell, telling Rome: “As long as Snell is on the market, we check in to ask what is the latest. Nothing new as of now.”

It’s telling that those comments came even before today’s potential injury to Urquidy. Presumably, if there’s real concern that Urquidy might miss some time, that would only hasten the team’s desire to add to the rotation, whether in the form of Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger or any of the other arms the free agent or trade market may have to offer. Crane did act aggressively and decisively when the Astros found out they’d lost setup man Kendall Graveman for the season, surprising many onlookers by signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM contract.

Snell, of course, would be the costliest free agent on the market in terms of financial outlay and future considerations. Because he rejected a qualifying offer, Snell would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s international free agent bonus pool. Since they already punted a second-round pick to sign Hader, however, that’d “only” be a third-round pick.

Since the Astros are already at a projected $255.7MM of luxury obligations (per RosterResource), signing Snell would push that figure past the $257MM second-tier threshold and past the third-tier $277MM threshold. That $277MM line is of particular note, as crossing that barrier drops a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 places.

Any additional players signed by the Astros would be subject to penalty under the luxury tax, although because Houston didn’t pay the tax last year, they’re considered a first-time offender. That subjects them to much lesser fees than third-time offenders like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc. Houston would owe a 20% tax on the next $1.3MM spent, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM. That tax would be based on the annual value of the contract.

A $30MM AAV on a Snell deal, for instance, would cost the Astros around $12.1MM in luxury taxes. That’s a steep price, but it’s nowhere near the 110% tax rate the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and others would face. Whether that makes it palatable enough for owner Jim Crane to further add to what’s already a franchise-record payroll by a wide margin remains to be seen.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros entered the offseason anticipating a few depth acquisitions. An injury to one of their anticipated setup relievers spurred them in another direction: a bold strike for one of the sport’s best late-game weapons.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $25MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Astros very narrowly missed another trip to the World Series. They dropped two straight at home against the Rangers to lose a seven-game ALCS. Watching their in-state rivals secure the first championship in franchise history might add some fuel to the fire, but the Astros would’ve remained firmly in win-now mode no matter how things played in October.

That didn’t necessarily portend an active winter. Houston went into the offseason with a projected franchise-record payroll. They have one of the sport’s most complete rosters. They were set to lose a few contributors but no instrumental piece of the core. Michael Brantley (who eventually announced his retirement), Martín Maldonado and the relief trio of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were Houston’s only free agents of note.

As a result, general manager Dana Brown indicated early in the winter that the team didn’t expect to do anything drastic. He suggested their outside acquisitions were likely to be more of the depth variety, identifying backup catcher and middle relief as the target areas.

Before they could turn their attention fully to the roster, the Astros had to address the coaching staff. Dusty Baker stepped down at year’s end, concluding what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame managerial career. Joe Espada, who had worked as bench coach under both A.J. Hinch and Baker, has long seemed to be a manager-in-waiting. The Astros tabbed Espada in mid-November, giving the 48-year-old his first managerial opportunity. Organizational stalwart Omar López moved up to bench coach.

Continuity was also a theme for much of the roster, although the Astros started the offseason with a few moves around the margins. During the Winter Meetings, they inked former Brewer Victor Caratini to a two-year, $12MM pact to serve as backup catcher. That marked the end of Maldonado’s run in Houston. The Astros declared before the winter that they’d turn the primary catching job to 25-year-old Yainer Díaz, who brings a lot more offensive upside than Maldonado offers. Given Maldonado’s stature in the clubhouse, it probably would have been tough to move him fully to a backup role in Houston. It made more sense to let him sign elsewhere — he eventually landed with the White Sox on a $4.25MM pact — and bring in a new #2 option.

Caratini wound up being Houston’s only MLB free agent position player pickup of the winter. It was their only major league signing at all well into January. That’s when the club revealed that Kendall Graveman required shoulder surgery that’d end his 2024 season before it got off the ground. Between Graveman’s injury and the aforementioned trio of free agent losses, the relief corps suddenly looked alarmingly thin behind the late-inning duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.

Brown initially played coy, saying the Graveman injury wouldn’t add any urgency to bring in relief help. Yet it clearly concerned both the front office and ownership, who signed off on a surprising strike at the top of the market. Within three days of announcing the Graveman news, the Astros inked Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM pact. It’s the second-largest guarantee to a reliever in MLB history and the highest in terms of net present value after accounting for deferrals in Edwin Díaz’s $102MM deal with the Mets.

It was a completely out of character splurge for the organization. While owner Jim Crane has approved player payrolls in the upper third of the league, the organization has been averse to long-term free agent commitments. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Hader deal was the first time the Astros stretched to five years on a free agent since Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. They’d only even gone to four years once before on the $52MM Josh Reddick pact. It was also the first time that Houston signed a player who had declined a qualifying offer.

Crane and Brown considered it worthwhile to deviate from typical procedure to add arguably the sport’s best reliever while the team’s path to a title remains clear. The five-time All-Star is coming off a 1.28 ERA showing while striking out almost 37% of batters faced for the Padres. Houston gave up their second-round pick and $500K in international signing bonus space to install him in the ninth inning. That bumps Pressly into setup work, where he’ll pair with Abreu in what should be an electric back of the bullpen.

Strong as that final trio is, the middle relief group does look like a relative weak point. The Hader signing meant the Astros eschewed a volume approach to addressing the middle innings. They claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers and took a flier on Dylan Coleman in a minor trade with the Royals. Beyond that, they’re counting on Rafael Montero to rebound from a poor season and hoping for steps forward from an internal option like Brandon Bielak or Seth Martinez. Brown acknowledged over the weekend the team is still looking to add middle relief help. That’d need to come via trade, waivers or potentially a minor league free agent pickup at this point.

As far as weaknesses go, middle relief is one of the easier problems to navigate. The Astros don’t have much concern throughout the rest of the roster. Caratini and first baseman Trey Cabbage, acquired from the Angels after a DFA, were the only position player pickups of the winter. Caratini and Díaz make for a strong catching tandem. José Abreu had a disappointing first year in Houston, but he perhaps found his power stroke in the final few weeks of the season. They’ll give him another shot at first base. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman round out an excellent infield.

Brantley’s departure puts a little more pressure on the in-house outfielders. Kyle Tucker should provide star production in right field. Chas McCormick has been an above-average regular and should get the bulk of playing time in left field. The Astros will turn center field to defensive stalwart Jake Meyers. McCormick can handle center on days when Yordan Alvarez trots out to left field. Mauricio Dubón remains on hand as a multi-positional option off the bench.

There wasn’t much turnover in the position player group. That could change next offseason, as Bregman is on track to hit free agency. That even led to speculation that the Astros could preemptively dangle him in trade talks this winter, although the organization quickly shot down that idea. Brown and Crane each said the team will make an extension offer to Bregman at some point, but that won’t be cheap. His camp could set out in search of a deal exceeding $200MM. The same is true for Tucker, who is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season.

Like Bregman, Altuve had been on track to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season. It was difficult to envision the franchise stalwart donning any other uniform. The Astros and his camp all but ensured that won’t happen. They locked in a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2025-29 seasons. That runs through Altuve’s age-39 campaign, ensuring he’ll be the franchise second baseman through the end of this competitive cycle. Altuve’s defensive grades are declining, but he remains the sport’s best offensive second baseman. Keeping him in the leadoff spot maximizes their chances of staying atop the AL West in the middle third of the decade.

The extension discussion isn’t limited to the position player side. Framber Valdez is down to his final two seasons of arbitration control. He won’t hit free agency until age 32, so he doesn’t have the same earning power as Tucker or Bregman do. Yet he’s deep enough into arbitration that he’d surely cost more than the $64MM which Houston guaranteed Cristian Javier last spring. A Valdez deal would likely go into nine figures. He and the Astros haven’t found an agreeable price point yet. As with Bregman, this led to some early-offseason trade speculation that never seemed to get far.

For now, Valdez slots back in as Houston’s top starter. That might’ve been true even if Justin Verlander were healthy, but the latter will begin the season on the injured list as he cautiously builds up after experiencing shoulder soreness early in camp. Javier, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown will follow Valdez in the season-opening rotation. J.P. France will get the nod as the #5 starter so long as he’s fully recovered from a minor shoulder issue of his own. If France does need to miss time, Bielak, Ronel Blanco or prospect Spencer Arrighetti could find themselves in the mix.

It’s a thinner rotation than the ones which the Astros have rolled out in previous years. That could be a concern around the deadline, but Brown has stated a few times it’s not something they feel compelled to address before Opening Day. Verlander’s IL stay isn’t expected to be too long. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could each be back from arm surgeries in the middle of the season. The front office should have a clearer idea in the summer of the extent to which they can rely on McCullers and Garcia down the stretch.

The gap in the AL West isn’t as wide as it once was. The Rangers and Mariners both pushed last year’s division race into the final weekend of the regular season. Texas got the last laugh in October. Still, the Astros have taken the AL West crown in six of the last seven seasons (all aside from the shortened 2020 schedule). They’ve gotten as far as the ALCS every year since 2017. This probably won’t be the best Astro team of the last few years, but there’s certainly enough talent to put them in the conversation at the top of the American League yet again.

 

Brown: Astros “Having Conversations” About Bullpen Additions

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Astros GM Dana Brown made an appearance on MLB Network Radio this afternoon to discuss where the club stands with a matter of weeks left until Opening Day. In doing so, Brown suggested that the club is mostly set in terms of the lineup and starting rotation, and that his primary focus at this point in the spring is looking to solidfy the club’s bullpen. While Brown expressed confidence in the quartet of Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Rafael Montero, he added that the club still needs to “figure out” how to handle the middle innings following the departures of Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, and Hector Neris this winter. The GM went on to suggest that the club is even looking at external options as it evaluates its bullpen mix.

“We are talking to clubs about trades,” Brown said, “I can’t get into that, but we definitely are having conversations about trades… we’re always looking at ways and avenues that we can get better, and if we can get better we’re going to make moves.”

With the aforementioned four relievers presumably locked into bullpen spots ahead of Opening Day, that leaves four spots in the relief corps available entering the 2024 campaign. One of those jobs appears likely to go to out of options right-hander Brandon Bielak, who posted a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings of work last year while swinging between starting and relief and figures to occupy a long relief role with the club this year. Other likely contenders for spots in the club’s bullpen include right-hander Dylan Coleman and southpaw Bennett Sousa, both of whom earned praise from Brown at the start of camp last month.

Looking at other options on the 40-man roster, Ronel Blanco pitched to a 4.50 ERA in 17 appearances with the club last year including seven starts, though it’s fair to wonder whether the Astros would prefer to keep him stretched out as starting pitching depth at the Triple-A level to open the season with Justin Verlander expected to open the season on the injured list. Seth Martinez, Oliver Ortega, and Parker Mushinski are other relief options with big league experience currently on the club’s 40-man, with the likes of Wander Suero and Joel Kuhnel in camp as non-roster invitees.

One potential x-factor who has yet to make his MLB debut is former top prospect Forrest Whitley, who is also already on the club’s 40-man roster. The club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft was once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport but has battled injuries and ineffectiveness in recent years, prompting a move to the bullpen. That being said, Whitley has battled finger inflammation this spring and was shut down from throwing in late February, potentially impacting his availability on Opening Day.

While the club certainly has a number of potentially viable options at its disposal, that group of arms vying for spots in the middle of the Houston bullpen offers little in the way of certainty. Given that, it’s easy to see why Brown would look to potentially bolster his relief corps ahead of Opening Day. That said, it’s unclear which teams could look to part with bullpen depth at this late stage in the offseason. While the Red Sox have reportedly shopped Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin this winter, the duo have been slowed by injuries this spring and are veteran, high-leverage arms who would be a significant step up from the type of middle relief relief arm Brown indicated the club is looking for. Jansen, in particular, comes with a whopping $16MM salary for the 2024 season that Houston would be unlikely to be interested in paying given their full late-inning mix.

Even as there aren’t any obvious fits for what the Astros appear to be looking for in the rumor mill at the moment, it’s not difficult to imagine an arm not yet on the radar as a trade candidate becoming available as Opening Day draws near. After all, the majority of clubs have far more bullpen options currently in camp than they can afford to roster entering the season. It’s always possible that an out-of-options reliever squeezed off another club’s roster or a non-roster invitee who isn’t breaking camp with their current organization could catch the club’s attention and prompt Brown to attempt to swing a deal, even if a more significant deal isn’t being worked on behind the scenes.

AL West Notes: Snell, Angels, Jung, Pollock, Verlander, Astros

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In a recent edition of the Willard and Dibs podcast, ESPN’s Buster Olney predicted Blake Snell will sign with the Angels, based on “conversations with people…who know Blake” and Snell’s apparent enjoyment of pitching in southern California.  Olney added the natural “depending on where the money falls” caveat, and things could also change depending on how the pitching market might yet play out, in regards to injuries suddenly changing the outlook for a would-be contender.  Agent Scott Boras said this week that he’d been hearing from some new suitors in regards to Snell and Jordan Montgomery since Spring Training opened, though both pitchers remain unsigned as we’re now into the second week of March.

The Angels were linked to Snell back in December, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writing at the time that Snell was “their priority” as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace Shohei Ohtani.  There hasn’t been much public movement between the two sides since, though the Halos also haven’t done anything else to upgrade their rotation, as their offseason pitching moves have been largely focused on bullpen additions.  The Angels have traditionally been reluctant to sign pitchers to big multi-year commitments, though since Snell is reportedly open to taking a shorter-term contract (likely with at least one opt-out clause), this could help find common ground towards a landing spot in Anaheim.

Other items from around the AL West…

  • It has been about three weeks since Josh Jung was shut down due to calf soreness, and the Rangers aren’t yet ready to him “ratchet up his running program,” according to Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link).  Another MRI on Jung indicated some improvement with his calf, but the team is still being cautious, which is understandable given Jung’s important role as the starting third baseman.  Jung has already made his mark with a big rookie season that included an All-Star nod and a World Series ring, with Jung hitting .308/.329/.538 slash line in 70 postseason plate appearances.  It seems possible that Jung might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list if he misses much more Spring Training time, though the injury doesn’t appear to be overly serious.
  • AJ Pollock is at the Mariners’ spring camp in something of an unofficial coaching mentorship role, Shannon Drayer of MyNorthwest.com writes.  MLB Trade Rumors has learned that Pollock is still exploring his playing options and hasn’t officially retired, though since the longtime outfielder just turned 36, it isn’t a surprise that he might be exploring what’s next once he does decide to hang up the cleats.  Pollock played in 49 games for Seattle last season before being traded to the Giants at the deadline, and hit only .165/.215/.308 in 144 total plate appearances.  Pollock has an .892 OPS over 422 PA just as recently as the 2021 season, though he had a subpar year with the White Sox in 2022 before his bigger performance dropoff last year.
  • Justin Verlander told MLB.com and other reporters that he threw around 60 pitches during a bullpen session on Friday, and is up to lower-90s velocity on his fastball.  It seems like another positive step for Verlander as he continues to ramp up after a minor shoulder problem delayed his start to Spring Training.  The Astros have already announced that Verlander will begin the season on the 15-day IL, though that placement is just to give him more time to get ready, rather than any true concern over his health.
  • Since both Verlander and J.P. France have been slowed by shoulder issues, the Astros rotation is a bit of a question mark as Opening Day approaches.  While the team gauges what arms might fill in for Verlander or France on a temporary basis, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that Houston will be in particular need of starters due to a busy early schedule.  The Astros play 20 games in the first 21 days of the season, and Rome feels the club could even go with a six-man rotation in April to keep everyone as fresh as possible.  That would open the door for Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak to both make the rotation if France also needs some IL time, or one of Blanco/Bielak could work as a long reliever.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

Justin Verlander To Begin Season On Injured List

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Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced Tuesday morning (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will simply need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than try to rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.

Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for some cautious optimism and to hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a couple of starts.

Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ’Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8MM overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different both in terms of his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.

The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3MM from crossing the into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3MM added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM spent. A $25MM AAV deal, for instance, would come with $8.9725MM of taxes. A $30MM AAV deal would trigger about $12.1MM of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22MM in terms of AAV would also be enough to trigger that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.

Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.

It’s not yet clear just how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and, if he’s healthy, J.P. France.

Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team has not yet indicated that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.

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