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Latest On Jose Berrios

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The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.

Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player.  He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%.  Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers.  Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.”  Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.

In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.”  But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.

Mets More Focused On Rental Pitchers

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The Mets are in the market for pitching, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, who notes that they’re more focused on rentals than players controlled beyond 2021.  The Mets recently added ageless southpaw Rich Hill, who made his club debut yesterday with a five-inning start, but they remain in the market for pitching of all kinds.  The Mets’ injured list for pitchers is extensive, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Robert Stock, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Gsellman, Stephen Nogosek, Corey Oswalt, and Sean Reid-Foley.  Dellin Betances and Joey Lucchesi are out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but Carrasco is close to making his Mets debut.

According to Martino, the Mets “intend to check in” with the Nationals about ace Max Scherzer, though such a trade would be a tough pill to swallow for the Nats.  Twins righty Jose Berrios is not a Mets target at this time, says Martino, in fitting with his point that New York prefers rentals so as not to deplete their farm system.

So what might the market for rental starting pitchers look like?  Narrowing to teams with less than a 10% shot at the playoffs according to FanGraphs, Scherzer, Jon Gray, Zach Davies, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Anderson, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Trevor Cahill fit the bill.  Not all of those pitchers are necessarily healthy or effective, but we’re casting a wide net.

Potential rental relievers include Raisel Iglesias, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Steve Cishek, Hansel Robles, Brad Hand, Josh Tomlin, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland, Yimi Garcia, Alex Colome, Daniel Norris, Tony Watson, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens, Ross Detwiler, Joakim Soria, Chasen Shreve, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Derek Holland, Blake Parker, Shane Greene, and Erasmo Ramirez.

Michael Pineda Drawing Trade Interest

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Twins righty Michael Pineda is drawing trade interest, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  The 32-year-old takes the bump tonight at Target Field against Matt Manning and the Tigers, in what figures to be a well-scouted affair.  According to Darren Wolfson of KSTP TV, the Twins have not held extension talks with Pineda, who’s due for free agency after the season.  Wolfson notes that the Padres have scouted Pineda this month.

The cellar-dwelling Twins dealt one impending free agent last week as they shipped Nelson Cruz to the Rays.  In addition to Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, and Hansel Robles are set for free agency after the season and may be sent packing by Friday’s deadline.  More desirable, but perhaps less likely to be dealt, are a trio of quality Twins players who are controlled through 2022: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers.  The Twins figure to be central to this year’s trade deadline action.

The Twins re-signed Pineda to a two-year, $20MM deal back in December 2019, despite the knowledge that he’d miss the first 39 games of 2020 due to a PED suspension.  Assuming Pineda is making $10MM this year, more than $3MM will remain at the deadline.  Pineda sports a 3.93 through 13 starts this year, missing time with thigh and forearm injuries.  Pineda’s average fastball velocity is down to a career-worst 90.8 miles per hour this year.  On a related note, he’s punched out only 21% of batters faced, his worst mark since 2014.  Pineda’s strong control remains intact, with a walk rate south of 6%.  As a flyball-heavy hurler, he’s always been prone to the longball.

Despite adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in the offseason, the Padres continue to seek starting pitching depth.  Dinelson Lamet, working his way back from forearm inflammation, will make a temporary move to the bullpen once he returns.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune previously linked the club to Kenta Maeda, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Danny Duffy, and Jon Gray.

As Jon Heyman of MLB Network sees it, almost all contenders aside from perhaps the White Sox and Astros are prioritizing starting pitching.  Morosi sees at least seven contenders as active in the starting pitching market at present: the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies.  Though Morosi did not mention the Mets, SNY’s Andy Martino says they’re in the market for help in both the rotation and bullpen, with a focus on rentals.

AL Central Notes: Duffy, Dodgers, Ramirez, Twins

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The Dodgers have interest in injured Royals southpaw Danny Duffy, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  This completes the trio of NL West contenders looking at Duffy, since the Padres and Giants have also been linked to the veteran left-hander.  San Francisco is known to be interested despite Duffy’s injury, and it can be assumed that the Dodgers are in the same position, considering that Duffy has been on the 10-day injured list for five days now.

Duffy is out of action with his second left flexor strain of the season, so he might not be available until at least early September, based on the timeline of his last IL visit.  Since the NL West teams currently have a big lead on the rest of the National League for the two wild card positions, the Dodgers can be reasonably comfortable of reaching the postseason in one form or another, so Duffy could be saved as a late-season reinforcement.  While it can certainly be argued that Los Angeles should spend its prospect capital on a healthy pitcher, the Royals’ asking price for Duffy probably isn’t very high, considering his injured status.  Duffy controls his trade destiny thanks to 10-and-5 rights, and the California native might be willing to waive those rights to join a team in his home state.  (If this is the case, the Angels and Athletics would also seem like hypothetical fits for a Duffy trade.)

More from the AL Central…

  • It remains to be seen if the Indians will be buyers, sellers, or a bit of both at the trade deadline, but there don’t appear to be any plans to move Jose Ramirez.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that Cleveland isn’t having “active talks” about a Ramirez deal with any rival team, which perhaps isn’t surprising considering the big-picture ramifications of such a trade.  Moving a star player with such an affordable contract would seemingly indicate a turn towards a rebuild for the Tribe, who haven’t given any indication they’re not planning to contend again in 2022.  Unsurprisingly, “the asking price is extremely high” for Ramirez, Morosi writes.
  • The Twins are considering all options as the trade deadline approaches, including the possibility of including two or more players together in a single trade.  In an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM earlier today, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told Jon Morosi and company that such a package deal is “something we have talked about.”  Possibilities abound for such trades, though since the Twins are reportedly not keen to move players controlled beyond 2021, however, I would think a package deal might be more suited as a way of generating a greater return for rental players.  Someone like Andrelton Simmons or Michael Pineda alone might not bring back much in the way of prospects, but putting the two veterans into one deal might get a team to budge on a slightly higher-tier minor leaguer.  Conversely, the Twins could also look into packaging a rental player with someone with more control (i.e. Byron Buxton or Taylor Rogers).

Twins, Byron Buxton Unable To Reach Extension

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The Twins and franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton have been unable to come to terms on a contract extension, increasing the likelihood of a full-scale sell-off before Friday’s trade deadline. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes report that the Twins’ initial offer was for $73MM over seven years with an unspecified number of incentives. The Twins “increased the guarantee slightly,” but not enough to come to a long-term agreement. The final guarantee increased to $80MM, tweets The Athletic.

The end result here is not surprising, given the muddled valuation process for a talent like Buxton. When he’s at his best, he’s one of the best players in the game, a five-tool player capable of anchoring a first-division lineup on both sides of the ball from a premium position. The injury concerns, however, have limited his contributions and saddled him with a tricky long-term risk profile.

This season perfectly illustrated the dichotomy of Buxton as a team-building asset. In 27 games, he made 110 trips to the plate and accrued an insane 2.7 fWAR with a .369/.409/.767 line, good for a 217 wRC+. But 27 games of MVP-caliber production from Buxton wasn’t enough to keep the Twins anywhere near contention. They currently have a 0.0% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs.

Buxton went on the injured list with a hip strain from May 7th to June 16th, by which point Minnesota’s shot at the playoffs was already slim to nil. He was back for less than a week before breaking his hand and returning to the injured list. Because he’s still out, there’s very little chance that the Twins might move Buxton now.

Instead, they’ll wait for the offseason and re-evaluate. Even just one season of a healthy Buxton ought to pique the interest of a few teams around the league who might be willing to take a chance on keeping him healthy.

The question now is whether Minnesota’s inability to lock up Buxton long-term will push them to be more aggressive in offloading assets like Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Both are under team control through 2022, like Buxton. Both are key cogs in a potential contender in 2022, like Buxton.

With Nelson Cruz already gone and the rest of the present-day roster not looking much like a contender, the Twins may already doubt their chances to battle an increasingly indomitable White Sox team next season.

If Berrios ultimately gets moved in the next week, we’ll know the Twins’ thoughts about next season. If he stays, the Twins may be preparing for one final run with Berrios and Buxton under contract. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely that Buxton’s long-term future resides somewhere other than Minnesota — where he can tantalize and frustrate a different fanbase.

AL Notes: Rogers, Bregman, Athletics, Kluber

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Unsurprisingly, Twins southpaw Taylor Rogers “is very popular on the trade market,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  There is enough interest that the reliever has a “good chance to be dealt” even though Minnesota is reportedly reluctant to move players who are under team control beyond this season.  Rogers has one more arbitration year remaining before free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

Rogers has somewhat quietly been one of baseball’s most effective relievers since just about the moment of his MLB debut in 2016, as the left-hander has a 3.15 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, and a 22% K-BB rate over 314 2/3 career innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen.  He has kept up that form in 2021, with a 3.35 ERA and a whopping 35.5% strikeout rate that ranks 11th among all hurlers with at least 40 innings pitched this season.  This is the type of high-level performance that could be the difference-maker in a pennant race, so while the Twins undoubtedly have a huge asking price for Rogers, another team could be willing to take the plunge to upgrade its bullpen for both the rest of this season and into 2022.

More from around the American League…

  • Alex Bregman will start a Triple-A rehab assignment within the next few days, the Astros star told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters.  A left quad strain sent Bregman to the 10-day injured list on June 17, and though there was initial uncertainty around exactly how long Bregman might be out, the Astros’ series against the Twins on August 5-8 seems to look like the target date.  At the time of his injury, Bregman was hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven home runs over 262 plate appearances.
  • Before the Rays traded for Nelson Cruz, the Athletics gave some consideration to acquiring the slugger themselves, Shayna Rubin of the Bay Area News Group writes.  The A’s seemingly didn’t get close to a move, however, due to both the financial and prospect cost attached to Cruz, and Rubin wonders if payroll concerns in particular will keep the Athletics from making any particularly big deadline splashes.  While spending is always an issue for the club, money could be tighter than ever now that the A’s no longer receive revenue-sharing money — as per the last collective bargaining agreement, the Athletics were gradually phased out of the league’s revenue-sharing plan over a multi-year period.  That said, Billy Beane and company have been adept at finding lower-cost help at past deadlines, such Oakland’s trade for Tommy La Stella last year.
  • Corey Kluber threw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Friday, and the Yankees veteran told reporters (including ESPN’s Marly Rivera) that he is “very confident” that he’ll be able to return in 2021.  Kluber was initially targeted for a late-July return at the time of his IL placement for a shoulder strain, though Yankees GM Brian Cashman later threw some doubt into Kluber’s exact timeline, saying that the right-hander might not be back until September.  While Kluber certainly doesn’t look immediately close to an activation just yet, his mound work does represent progress, even if he described his 25 pitches as “easy fastballs…nothing like I would do in a regular bullpen session.”

Latest On Yankees’ Trade Targets

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The Yankees are far from matching the kind of production they’ve set as their historical standard, but manager Aaron Boone’s much-maligned unit isn’t exactly dead in the water: they’re five games over .500 and still a very reasonable 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Most teams in their spot would be looking for additions to make a playoff push. The Yankees, of course, have no plans of fading into the background, and they’re surely set to make a splash or two here in the final week before the trade deadline.

Trevor Story and Starling Marte continue to be two of the most talked-about names on the market, and both Story and Marte have been connected to the Yanks in recent weeks. They’ve also checked in on Max Kepler, though the Twins’ asking price is said to be “exorbitant,” per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.

Consider Story or Marte the more likely targets, then, though they’ll face plenty of competition for either player. Both players are, however, likely to move before the deadline. The hangup will be on finding the right match of prospects to send to Colorado and Miami, respectively.

Speculatively speaking, Story would appear the more impactful addition, given how much his glove could improve the Yankees’ defense – and how much he would affect the other pieces of the roster. Sliding Gleyber Torres to second and DJ LeMahieu to first would put all the pieces in the right places, though Luke Voit would be in a position to either move to the bench or push Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield, where the Yankees are hesitant to play him. Still, there aren’t as many teams as it might seem with a hole at shortstop, and some of those teams with obvious needs to upgrade (i.e. the A’s) have been bearish on pursuing one.

Further, ESPN’s David Schoenfield suggests they might be on the lookout for bullpen help. That might be a little offputting to hear at first, as their bullpen ranks third by fWAR this season, but there’s a lot of volume built into that metric. They rank eighth overall with a 3.67 bullpen ERA. The concern, more specifically, is their recent performance. The Yanks’ pen ranks 21st with a 5.19 ERA in July. That’s not necessarily enough to cause full-on panic, but there’s always room for another arm in the bullpen.

 

Rays Acquire Nelson Cruz

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With just over a week before the trade deadline, the Rays have made a big move in acquiring slugger Nelson Cruz from the Twins as part of a four-player swap.  Cruz and minor league righty Calvin Faucher will head to Tampa, while Minnesota will pick up right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman.

With the Twins in the midst of a nightmare season, Cruz became a natural trade chip, as the 41-year-old slugger can be a free agent this winter.  Cruz re-signed with Minnesota last offseason on a one-year, $13MM contract, and Cruz has roughly $4.87MM remaining in owed salary.

Nelson Cruz | Tim Heitman-USA TODAY SportsThere was no announcement made of cash considerations being involved, so it appears as though the Rays will be taking on all of Cruz’s remaining salary.  This is no small matter for a Rays team that always has an eye on the budget, and even with Cruz now in the fold, the club’s payroll is still under the $67MM threshold.  Tampa Bay can (and likely will) make other moves before the July 30 deadline that could move some other dollars off the books, but as it stands, the Cruz deal is a sign that Rays ownership is willing to stretch a bit financially to bolster a team that looks like a contender to return to the World Series.

Despite Cruz’s age and seeming lack of defensive value, his bat has remained so dangerous that even some National League teams were reportedly including him in trade considerations, with an eye towards deploying Cruz in the outfield for the first time since 2018.  While the Rays’ penchant for roster maximization could lead to Cruz getting at least a bit of time in the outfield, it’s a very safe bet that he’ll slot in as Tampa’s new everyday DH, bringing some big-time pop to a lineup that is solid overall but middle-of-the-pack in terms of power.

Austin Meadows had received the bulk of Tampa’s DH at-bats, though Meadows now looks to move into the outfield mix with Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, and (when he returns from the IL) Manuel Margot.  Lowe can also be utilized at second base, and between any other injuries or even trades that might emerge, the Rays shouldn’t have much issue in finding enough playing time to keep everyone fresh and ready for another postseason push.

Cruz will suit up for the sixth different team over what has been a very impressive 17-year career.  Named to his seventh All-Star team just this season, Cruz is showing no signs of slowing down, hitting .294/.370/.537 with 19 homers over 346 plate appearances in 2021.  This production is actually a dropoff from the .308/.394/.626 slash line he posted over 735 PA for Minnesota in 2019-20, but “decline phase” doesn’t really seem like an applicable description.

Neither Ryan and Strotman are in the upper crust of Tampa prospects, though MLB Pipeline did have them solidly ranked (Ryan 10th, Strotman 17th) on their list of the Rays’ best minor league talents.  Both are starting pitchers with solid performances at Triple-A this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see their make their Major League debuts before 2021 is finished.  Since the Twins are looking to return to contention next year, landing two big league-ready arms will help their rotation depth, considering Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ are both free agents this winter (and either could be moved before July 30.

Ryan is 25 years old and was a seventh-round pick for the Rays in the 2018 draft.  He cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list (at 98th) prior to the 2020 season, and Ryan has continued his rise up the ladder by posting a 3.63 ERA over 57 innings at Triple-A Durham this year.  At all levels, Ryan has been great at missing bats (36.65% strikeout rate over 217 minor league IP) and avoiding walks (6.05% walk rate), thanks in large part to an excellent four-seamer.  MLB Pipeline’s scouting report isn’t as enamored with his other pitches, but Ryan’s slider did merit a 55 grade on their 20-80 scouting scale.

The 24-year-old Strotman was a fourth-rounder in the 2017 draft, though his pro career has been limited to 179 innings thanks to the canceled 2020 minor league season and a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action for big chunks of the 2018 and 2019 campaigns.  The Rays saw enough from Strotman that they added him to their 40-man roster last winter to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and Strotman has looked solid in posting a 3.39 ERA over 58 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.  His walks have increased as he has moved up the minor league ladder, topping out at an unimpressive 13.15% walk rate at Triple-A this year.  Pipeline notes that command has been a strength for Strotman in the past, however, and the right-hander’s fastball, cutter, and slider are all ranked as above-average to plus pitches.

Faucher is the other name in the deal, a 25-year-old righty who has struggled in his first taste of Double-A baseball, posting a 7.04 ERA with six homers and 24 walks in 30 2/3 innings this season.  After consistently posting big strikeout numbers earlier in his minor league career and in college (at UC Irvine), the hard-throwing Faucher has continued that trend with a 27.63% strikeout rate amidst his difficulties this season.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the Rays were acquiring Cruz, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links) was the first to report that it was a four-player deal also involving Strotman.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Draft Signings: 7/22/21

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The latest on some notable Day Two draft signings.  For more on the 2021 draft, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

  • The Twins agreed to deals with Competitive Balance Round A pick Noah Miller and second-rounder Steve Hajjar, the team announced.  As the 36th overall pick, Miller had an assigned slot price of $2,045,400, and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter) reports that the high school shortstop’s bonus was under slot at $1.7MM.  Hajjar’s bonus hasn’t yet been reported, but the 61st overall pick has an assigned price of $1,129,700.
  • The Rockies announced the signing of second-round pick Jaden Hill, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reporting the LSU righty signed for the $1,689,500 slot price attached to the 44th overall pick.  Also from Callis, the Rockies agreed to another at-slot deal with Ohio University southpaw Joe Rock, whose deal is worth the assigned $953,100 price for the 68th overall pick.
  • The Mets signed 46th overall pick Calvin Ziegler for a $910K bonus, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports.  The Canadian right-hander’s deal falls significantly below the $1,617,400 slot value, so the Mets gained some significant pool savings that were necessary for the above-slot deal in the works with tenth overall pick Kumar Rocker.
  • The Brewers signed second-rounder Russell Smith for a $1MM bonus, Callis tweets.  A left-hander out of TCU, Smith was the 51st overall pick, which has a slot value of $1,436,900.
  • The Cubs agreed to a $2.1MM bonus with second-round pick James Triantos, according to Callis.  It’s an overslot deal for Triantos, a high school third baseman from Virginia, as the 56th overall selection had an assigned price of only $1,276,400.
  • The Rays reached a deal with second-rounder Kyle Manzardo, with Callis reporting that the Washington State first baseman signed for $750K.  The 63rd overall pick (and the final pick of the second round proper) has a slot price of $1,076,300.
  • The Astros went well over slot to sign third-rounder Tyler Whitaker, as Callis reported that the high school outfielder landed a $1.5MM bonus.  That is more than double the $689,300 slot price for the 87th overall pick.  Of note, Whitaker was Houston’s first pick of the 2021 draft, due to their punishment from the sign-stealing scandal.
  • The Yankees also more than doubled the slot price on a third-round selection, as Callis writes that prep left-hander Brock Selvidge received $1.5MM.  The 92nd overall pick has a recommended value of only $637.6K.  The Yankees have now signed all their draft picks from the first 10 rounds, going underslot on eight of the 10 players.

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

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Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline.  This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego.  Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight.  It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries.  Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.”  The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda.  San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season.  Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season.  Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state.  Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting.  Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar.  Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started.  The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip.  Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason.  With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons.  Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air.  The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions.  In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two.  The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

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