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Cubs, Padres Have Discussed Dylan Cease

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The Cubs are among the teams that have discussed right-hander Dylan Cease with the Padres, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication that the two sides are close to any sort of deal or that discussions were anything more than exploratory.

Cease, 29, has been bandied about the rumor mill for much of the winter as a payroll-crunched Padres club struggles to find ways to address myriad roster holes. A free agent following the 2025 season, Cease is slated to earn $13.75MM this year. Trading him for a controllable, lower-cost outfielder could affordably plug one lineup hole while also freeing up more than $13MM to backfill the rotation. Alternatively, the Friars could build a Cease deal around controllable, low-cost (and also less-proven) rotation pieces and look to reallocate Cease’s salary to a bat that’s yet to find a home in free agency or a trade target in the outfield. The Padres have at least gauged interest in impending free agents like Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (signed through 2027 but with an opt-out next offseason) under similar rationale.

The Cubs already have a deep rotation featuring Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. Free agent signee Colin Rea gives them a veteran sixth option, and Chicago has younger names like Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian on the 40-man roster, with prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell climbing the minor league ladder.

Given that stock of arms, the Cubs don’t necessarily need another starting pitcher, but there’s an argument that some of that depth and their impressive stock of high-end position prospects could be condensed into a front-of-the-rotation arm like Cease. Morosi highlighted top outfield prospect Owen Caissie as a potential piece of a Cease trade in an on-air segment this morning, albeit in fairly speculative fashion.

Coupling Caissie or another touted outfielder like Kevin Alcantara with a controllable arm that lacks Cease’s ceiling but could be a third or fourth starter (e.g. Wicks, Assad) could hold some appeal to a Padres club that lacks rotation depth, a clear left fielder or designated hitter, and has a shaky-at-best collection of options to fill out manager Mike Shildt’s bench. Anecdotally, a trade involving Cease and Caissie would send each player back to their original organization; Cease was a sixth-round pick of the Cubs who was traded to the White Sox in exchange for Jose Quintana, while Caissie was a Padres second-rounder who went to the Cubs as part of the Yu Darvish trade.

Outfield is an area of depth for the Cubs, who have Ian Happ in left field, young Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and trade acquisition Kyle Tucker in right field. The acquisition of Tucker has pushed slugger Seiya Suzuki into a primary DH role, though he’ll surely still see some corner time depending on injuries or off-days for other members of the outfield. Tucker is a free agent at season’s end, but Happ and Suzuki are both signed through 2026 while Crow-Armstrong can be controlled all the way through 2030. Both Caissie and Alcantara are generally viewed as MLB-ready pieces who could step into the majors as soon as this season after posting big seasons in the upper minors in 2024. (Alcantara made a brief MLB debut late in ’24 already.) Infielder and fellow top prospect James Triantos also got a bit of work in the outfield in 2024. He’s on the cusp of his MLB debut as well.

The circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Cease are fairly similar to those of Corbin Burnes one year ago. While Cease has had a bit more volatility in terms of year-over-year results and doesn’t have a Cy Young Award to his credit, he’s a top-end starter with a relatively reasonable salary and one season of club control remaining. He’s unlikely to sign an extension, as was the case with Burnes, but could net a new team a draft pick if and when he rejects a qualifying offer next winter. That holds some inherent value and helps to offset the prospect loss required to pry Cease loose in a trade. The Orioles sent two MLB-ready players who’d garnered top-100 fanfare — infielder Joey Ortiz and lefty DL Hall — to the Brewers along with a 2024 competitive balance draft pick (No. 34 overall).

That was a steep price to pay, and perhaps Cease’s value isn’t quite to that same level, but it shouldn’t be far off. At the very least, it provides a rough blueprint for what San Diego could reasonably seek in exchange for a power-armed 29-year-old who landed second in 2022 American League Cy Young voting.

Payroll-wise, the Cubs have more than enough space to add Cease’s salary while still remaining comfortably south of the $241MM luxury threshold and leaving space for in-season acquisitions. RosterResource projects Chicago at a bit more than $207MM in luxury obligations after their recent acquisition of Ryan Pressly, giving them about $34MM of cushion between their current standing and that tax barrier.

Poll: Should The Padres Trade Dylan Cease Or Michael King?

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While the Padres no longer appear to be under a mandate to cut payroll for the 2025 season, signs still point to the club needing to make a trade or two in order to free up space in an already-maximized budget if they hope to address multiple holes in the lineup. That’s led to plenty of rumors surrounding the club’s pending free agents, the most valuable of whom are without a doubt right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King.

Trading a front-line starter like Cease or King might seem counterproductive for a club that’s already lacking in rotation depth, but it’s possible that the trade return for either player could involve a young starter or two while allowing the Padres to reallocate the freed up payroll space to the lineup. It’s surely under that logic that San Diego has explored Cease’s market and discussed King with rival clubs as well. The Padres have reportedly been more resistant to trading King under the belief that he’s more likely than Cease to sign an extension, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is generally open-minded when it comes to trade discussions. That the two sides face a nearly $1.5MM gap after exchanging salary figures and appear headed toward an arbitration hearing only adds an additional layer of complexity.

Cease, 29, is the bigger name of the two righties. A longtime top prospect with the Cubs and White Sox, the right-hander debuted on the south side back in 2019 and had developed into a legitimate front-end arm by 2021. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.52 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.32 FIP and an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate. Perhaps even more impressive than Cease’s strong rate numbers is his volume. The right-hander has been a workhorse by the standards of the modern game with 716 innings of work across 130 starts since the start of 2021. That’s the most starts and seventh-highest innings count of any starter in that time.

By contrast, King doesn’t offer the same level of star power or track record. The 2024 campaign was actually the first time King has acted as a full-time starter in the majors, and his 173 2/3 innings of work were not only a career high but the first time he had thrown even 105 innings since 2018. The results can’t be denied, however, and King was nothing short of excellent. He posted a 2.95 ERA (139 ERA+) with a 3.33 FIP. His peripherals are quite similar to Cease, as well; his 27.7% strikeout rate was a touch lower than Cease’s 29.4% figure, but his 8.7% walk rate was nearly identical to Cease’s 8.5%. King’s 6.2% barrel rate was far better than that of Cease.

Given that similar production and a price tag that’ll be $5-7MM less than that of Cease, it’s easy to imagine some clubs preferring King between the two. If King can fetch what the Padres deem to be a better return, moving the more affordable arm and keeping the more proven/durable righty makes some sense. On the other hand, King still seems likelier to sign an extension than the Boras Corp-represented Cease, and Cease has shown some year-to-year volatility. He posted a below-average ERA as recently as 2023.

If you were in Preller’s shoes and needed to free up some payroll space to address various holes on the roster, how would you proceed with your coveted rotation duo? Have your say in the poll below:

MLBTR Podcast: Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will Ben Cherington get the Pirates a right fielder before spring training? (21:10)
  • What is holding up Jack Flaherty’s market? (23:15)
  • Why is the MLB offseason so different from the other sports? (29:00)
  • Is there a common thread with the unsigned free agents? (32:50)
  • Brett Baty to the Padres and Luis Arráez to the Mets, straight up, no money changing hands. Who says no? (38:45)
  • News of the Pirates signing Adam Frazier breaks during recording (39:25)
  • Back to the Baty-Arráez question (39:50)
  • Should the Cubs get Michael King from the Padres and what would the cost be? (42:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres, Forrest Wall Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres agreed to a minor league deal with outfielder Forrest Wall, as first reported by Mad Friars and reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. The speedster elected minor league free agency at the beginning of the offseason.

Wall, 29, has appeared in 31 MLB games over the past two seasons. He debuted with 15 games for the Braves in 2023 and suited up 16 times between Atlanta and Miami last year. He has hit .311 in a small sample of 50 trips to the plate. The former Rockies supplemental round pick has a more modest .268/.356/.385 slash in more than 1600 career Triple-A plate appearances.

The lefty-hitting Wall appeared in 78 Triple-A games between the Atlanta, Miami and Baltimore systems last season. He hit .278/.381/.392 with 20 stolen bases and six home runs. Wall drew walks at a strong 12.3% rate but struck out at an elevated 25.7% clip. That has generally been his profile throughout his minor league career. He takes a decent amount of free passes and steals plenty of bases, but he doesn’t bring much power to the table and strikes out a fair amount.

Wall was drafted as a second baseman but moved to the outfield a few seasons into his professional career. He’s fast enough to provide depth at all three positions. Wall has more than 3400 professional innings as a center fielder and has logged upwards of 1100 minor league frames in left field.

Matt Seidler Files Response To Sheel Seidler Lawsuit

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Sheel Seidler, the widow of late Padres’ owner Peter Seidler, filed a lawsuit earlier this month trying to gain control of the team. That suit made various allegations, including that two of Peter’s brothers (Matt and Bob) breached various fiduciary duties as they tried to make an underhanded attempt to control the club and maybe even relocate the team. This week, Matt Seidler has filed a response that refutes Sheel’s narrative, as relayed by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

Matt and Sheel present very different perspectives about how things have proceeded in recent years. Matt’s response states that Peter amended his trust seven times and did not name Sheel a trustee in any of those changes, whereas Peter’s brothers Robert, Matt and John Seidler are designated as trustees, with the trustees to name the control person. In December, it was reported that John would be named the club’s new control person.

“In fact,” the response reads, “… the Trust Agreement precludes Sheel from ever serving as a successor Trustee under any circumstance. Conversely, Peter provided that, after Sheel’s death, each of his Children would have the right to become cotrustees of their own trusts once they reached the age of (40).” The response goes on to say that the transactions Sheel identified as fraud actually benefited the trust at a rate twice as much as expected, with Sheel and her children beneficiaries of said trust.

Matt’s response also alleges the trust has made multiple transactions to benefit Sheel, including transferring ownership of a $30MM Texas ranch to her name, the purchase of an $8.5MM home in Coronado, California, as well as cash disbursements totaling more than $4.5MM. Matt’s response alleges that Sheel requested to be the club’s control person, which Matt denied, at which point she demanded $20MM and a promise of annual payments in that same amount. Matt also alleges that Sheel used power of attorney to take $2.5MM from one of Peter’s accounts while he was in the ICU. The filing also states that “Sheel’s goal is to manufacture claims against the Trustees in pursuit of the control that Peter intentionally chose not to give her” and that the lawsuit was a public relations move which “sought to prejudice the Padres fanbase against Matt, Bob, and John.”

Whether the ownership battle has any on-field impact is something that can be debated, but Matt’s filing insinuates that Sheel’s suggestion that the club might leave San Diego impacted discussions with right-hander Roki Sasaki. The Dodgers were long considered the most likely landing spot for Sasaki with the Padres considered a dark-horse threat. The Padres and Dodgers were two of the three finalists, alongside the Blue Jays, though Sasaki did eventually pick the Dodgers.

Longtime Padre Jurickson Profar recently signed with Atlanta and was asked about not returning to San Diego. In video relayed by Jim Russell of Jon & Jim, Profar alluded to the “issues with ownership” that the Padres have.

Perhaps that was a reference to this legal battle or simply the club’s well-documented financial issues in recent years. Even before Peter died in November of 2023, it was reported in September of that year that the club would have to cut back its spending habits because they were deemed to be “out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio.” The current offseason and last winter’s have been largely defined by the club dealing with payroll constraints, which led to last winter’s Juan Soto trade. The club has been less active this offseason but players like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez, Robert Suarez and others have been in trade rumors.

Dane Butswinkas, an attorney representing Sheel, provided Acee with a statement in response to Matt’s filing: “The response, for all of its bravado, is especially thin in responding to the very specific and serious allegations of Matt and Robert Seidler’s breaches of fiduciary duty. It’s ironic that they accuse Sheel — Peter’s wife of two decades and the mother of his three children — of misusing his assets, while at the same time they have reaped the benefits of Peter’s generosity for decades. The fact is, we will win in court because the defendants have shown they have no case. In short, their response is a total strike out.”

It’s unclear what the next steps of the legal process will be or what the expected timelines are. Per Lin, the MLB owners are scheduled to vote on John as the club’s control person next week. Many clubs are owned by multiple people but each team gets one control person who is a point of contact for the league and who votes on league matters.

Complicated ownership disputes are not unprecedented in Major League Baseball. Various members of the Angelos family, which previously owned the Orioles, filed lawsuits against each other after Peter Angelos fell ill. Those lawsuits were dropped in February of 2023 and the club was sold to a group headed by David Rubenstein in 2023.

Padres Have Discussed Michael King In Trade Talks

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The month of January is almost done, which means pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in a couple of weeks, but there is still plenty of offseason business left to be resolved. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that part of the reason things are moving slowly is that there are still lots of ongoing trade talks, with Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres “among the starting pitchers who remain in play.”

Cease’s name has been in plenty of rumors this winter but this is the firmest indication of the winter that King is potentially available as well. The logic for the Friars considering a trade is the same for both pitchers, as each is going into his final season of arbitration control.

The Padres are clearly working with financial restraints this winter, though their exact spending ability isn’t totally clear. For much of the winter, reporting indicated that they needed to cut their projected 2025 payroll. But reporting from recent days suggests the club may be able to keep their projected spending around its current level, give or take.

Even if the Friars don’t have to significantly cut spending, considering trades of players like Cease or King is still understandable. The club needs to address left field, catcher, the rotation and maybe shortstop as well. With little wiggle room in the budget, signing free agents to fill those holes will be difficult. The club’s biggest contracts are hard to move since each of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove has a full no-trade clause. Jake Cronenworth has partial no-trade protection and his contract isn’t terribly appealing at the moment.

In a similar position last winter, the Padres felt they needed to move on from Juan Soto while he was one season away from free agency. By flipping Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees, the Padres brought back five players who were less established but nonetheless improved the depth in the rotation and behind the plate. One of the players they got back was King, another was Drew Thorpe, who helped the Padres get Cease from the White Sox.

Now with another budget crunch, players like Luis Arráez, Cease and/or King could be this year’s Soto. All three are one year away from the open market and have no ability to stop a trade. Arráez will  make $14MM this year and Cease $13.75MM. King and the Padres didn’t come to an agreement prior to the arbitration filing deadline and are slated for a hearing. He filed at $8.8MM and the club at $7.325MM.

The lesser price is a reflection of King’s smaller track record compared to Cease. While the latter has been an established big league starter for a long time now, King really only has one season as a true bona fide rotation option. He spent much of his Yankee career in a swing role, oscillating between the rotation and bullpen. Late in 2023, with the Yankees out of contention, he put together a strong run of starts and seemed to have the potential for a larger role.

The Padres made a bet on him by acquiring him as a key piece of the Soto deal, and that worked out quite well. King tossed 173 2/3 innings over 31 appearances last year, with 30 of those being starts. The other was a long relief outing during the Seoul Series, before the season had begun in earnest. He allowed just 2.95 earned runs per nine on the year, with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. He also made two postseason starts for the Friars, adding another 12 innings with a 3.75 ERA. He finished seventh in National League Cy Young voting.

That should give King plenty of trade appeal going into 2025. While the track record isn’t as long as that of Cease, the price is well below market rates for starting pitching. Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander each got $15MM one-year deals this offseason. Cobb is 37 years old and Verlander about to turn 42, with both pitchers having been injured for much of the 2024 campaign.

A King trade would clear less payroll space for the Padres than one involving Cease or Arráez, since King is slated to make about half as much as the other two. Still, if the Padres find an offer to their liking, the logic would be similar. They could theoretically flip King for cheaper but less established players, perhaps addressing one of their many needs while also improving their depth in other areas. They’d also gain $8MM or so, give or take, to dedicate to other pursuits.

It would be a tricky tightrope to walk since the rotation already needs upgrading as it is and subtracting King or Cease would only add to their need in that department. But given the financial circumstances, it’s something they will have to think about. As of right now, the rotation consists of Darvish, King, Cease and plenty of uncertainty. Guys like Matt Waldron, Adrián Morejón or others could fill in the back but those guys have some question marks.

Time will tell if anything comes from these trade talks. The Padres have been in this situation for most of the winter but have been very quiet. Perhaps that’s due to the fact that they were a serious suitor for Roki Sasaki and wanted to know his choice before proceeding. With Sasaki signing with the Dodgers last week and spring training now so close, perhaps the Padres will blink on something. On the other hand, free agents like Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and Andrew Heaney are still out there, which could prevent clubs from aggressively pushing the Padres for a deal. Pitchers like Marcus Stroman, Luis Castillo, Jordan Montgomery and Chris Paddack are likely available in trades as well. The position player market still features Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, with those staring contests perhaps broadly holding things up as well.

Padres Expect To Carry A Top 10 Payroll In 2025

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The Padres have been among the quietest teams in baseball this winter, which is unusual given that president of baseball operations AJ Preller is one of the most aggressive front office executives in the sport. The club’s inaction this winter has largely been informed by reports of significant payroll constraints, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last night that those constraints might not be quite as stringent as once believed. While the club was previously thought to be angling towards lowering its 2025 payroll to something closer to the $169MM level they ran with in 2024, Acee now reports that the club plans to carry a payroll in or around the league’s top 10 for this season.

San Diego’s payroll currently ranks ninth in the sport at $208MM according to RosterResource, although some clubs on the outside of the top 10 such as the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are rumored to be involved in the markets of significant free agents like Alex Bregman, Jack Flaherty, and Pete Alonso who would likely catapult any of them into the top ten if signed. Even so, it stands to reason that the Padres are at least somewhat unlikely to increase payroll beyond its current level, a thought that Acee more or less confirms by noting that the club does not appear to be able to add payroll without first making room in the budget elsewhere.

That’s not necessarily exciting news for Padres fans, given the club’s clear needs at catcher, in the rotation, in left field, and at DH. It’s a lot of holes for Preller to try and plug without increasing payroll, and that’s led the Padres to listen to offers on key pieces such as Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, and Robert Suarez this winter. While trading any of those players would create another hole on the roster, the return package combined with the payroll flexibility created by moving salary could allow San Diego to come out ahead on those moves as they did when they shipped Juan Soto to the Yankees last winter.

That makes the club’s plan to carry a payroll in or around the top ten potentially game changing for the front office. When the club was believed to be operating under a mandate to cut payroll, it seemed as though the Padres may have to execute multiple trades in order to make even modest additions via free agency. Now, however, it appears any dollars freed up by any trades they make can be reinvested directly back into the roster. That should make trading a high-end player like Cease much easier to turn into a net positive for the roster overall than it would have been if the club was forced to rely entirely on the return package for upgrades. It could also make the possibility of dumping a contract like that of Jake Cronenworth more attractive for the front office even in the event they’re unable to secure a significant return, as the roughly $11.3M is slated to earn in 2025 could then be spent on addressing more critical needs.

What remains unclear is whether or not the Padres are willing to exceed the first luxury tax threshold this year after avoiding the tax last season. San Diego is currently just over the first $241MM threshold with a projected payroll of roughly $243MM for CBT purposes. Preller has shown a willingness to get creative with his additions in order to lower a player’s AAV for luxury tax purposes in the past, and it’s certainly feasible to imagine the Padres finding a way to sneak under that first threshold while maintaining a similar or even identical payroll in terms of actual dollars spent. Moving a pricey arbitration level player like Cease or Arraez would be particularly valuable if ducking under the luxury tax is a goal, as their one-year salaries count fully against the luxury tax while even a similarly-priced free agent could be signed to a more complicated contract structure that offers San Diego additional wiggle room.

White Sox Trade Ron Marinaccio To Padres

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The Padres have acquired right-handed reliever Ron Marinaccio from the White Sox in exchange for cash, per announcements from both clubs. Chicago designated Marinaccio for assignment earlier in the week. San Diego’s 40-man roster is now up to 35 players.

Marinaccio, 29, has appeared in each of the past three big league seasons, with all his MLB time coming as a member of the Yankees. He’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in all three of those individual seasons, working to a composite 3.22 mark with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate but an ugly 12.6% walk rate. Marinaccio averaged 93.6 mph on his heater this past season and paired that offering with a changeup and slider, both of which reside in the low 80s.

The ChiSox claimed Marinaccio off waivers from the Yankees on Sept. 23. He didn’t make it into a game for the South Siders, but given the general state of disarray within their roster, he seemed like he’d have a chance to factor into the 2025 bullpen mix. General manager Chris Getz ultimately felt differently, as Marinaccio was bumped from the 40-man roster this week to open space for veteran innings eater Martin Perez.

Marinaccio’s track record in Triple-A is generally supportive of his output in the big leagues, making it something of a surprise that the White Sox moved on for next to no return. He’s pitched in parts of four seasons there and logged a 3.35 ERA in 91 1/3 innings, fanning 29.9% of his opponents against an 11.3% walk rate along the way. Marinaccio still has one minor league option year remaining, and he’s controllable through the 2028 season as things currently stand (though future optional assignments could change that calculus). He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason at the earliest.

Braves Notes: Profar, Kelenic, De La Cruz, Pitching Staff

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The Braves finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, coming to terms with Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $42MM contract that’ll install him as their new everyday left fielder. Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos confirmed in chatting with the Braves beat yesterday that Profar will be ticketed for regular work in left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz (who signed a split major league deal earlier this winter) competing for at-bats in right field (link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).

Profar told reporters via Zoom this morning that landing with the Braves is a near-ideal scenario. As a native of Curacao, he grew up idolizing countryman Andruw Jones and watching him with the Braves. He’ll now be united with friend and countryman Ozzie Albies with those same Braves. Profar indicated that as soon as free agency began, his top two preferences were to remain in San Diego or sign in Atlanta (via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The Padres, who are dealing with a payroll crunch and ownership infighting, never came close to Atlanta’s offer at any point in free agency, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

With Profar slated for everyday work in left field and Michael Harris II in center, that leaves right field as the only place for Kelenic and De La Cruz to get playing time early in the season. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be back to man right field eventually but is expected to miss more than a month of the season as he finishes off rehabbing last year’s torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. A platoon is possible, but Anthopoulos made clear that Kelenic “will get a lot of reps in right field” this spring and “will have every opportunity to be that guy.”

Kelenic, 25, came to the Braves by way of a convoluted series of salary dump trades last year. The former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect was effectively purchased from the Mariners, with Atlanta taking on the underwater contracts of first baseman Evan White and lefty Marco Gonzales to get Kelenic to Atlanta. Gonzales was subsequently traded to the Pirates, who took on about $3MM of his $12MM salary. White was shipped to Anaheim in return for another pair of underwater contracts: David Fletcher and Max Stassi. The Braves quickly flipped Stassi to the White Sox for a player to be named later, agreeing to pay the bulk of Stassi’s salary. When factoring in the dead money they absorbed and the associated luxury tax hits, they spent around $32MM to acquire Kelenic.

Suffice it to say, year one of the gambit didn’t play out as hoped. Kelenic got out to a decent start in April, slumped in May, had a monster showing in June, and then tanked for the majority of the final three months. On the whole, he hit .231/.286/.393. His 15 homers were a new career-high, but he also fanned in almost 30% of his plate appearances while providing slightly below-average defense in the outfield and slashing only .206/.236/.279 against lefties.

That anemic performance against southpaws is where De La Cruz could come into play. The longtime Marlin and brief Pirate was non-tendered earlier this winter and quickly scooped by by Atlanta. De La Cruz makes for an odd platoon partner for Kelenic, however. His right-handed bat is very clearly more productive versus lefties than the lefty-swinging Kelenic, but De La Cruz has still been a below-average hitter against southpaws in his career: .270/.315/.390 (92 wRC+). Considering Kelenic has only been about average versus righties in his career, it’s an underwhelming platoon unless one or both players take a substantial step forward.

That shouldn’t be a long-term issue, of course. Acuña should be back sometime in May or June. At that point, the Braves can rely on a Profar-Harris-Acuña alignment from left to right. Kelenic, whom Anthopoulos praised as an option capable of playing all three outfield spots, could then slide into more of a fourth outfield role with De La Cruz serving as a depth option in Triple-A.

With the outfield largely settled, the question of what’s next for the Braves naturally arises. Anthopoulos said last night that he has the flexibility needed to add to the rotation and/or bullpen (via David O’Brien of The Athletic). No deal in either department is close, however, and the veteran baseball ops leader emphasized that any rotation arm that’s brought in would need to be a decisive upgrade over in-house arms like Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson. Both are out of minor league options and thus very likely ticketed for roster spots to begin the season. O’Brien speculates that Atlanta will add a reliever and forgo a prominent rotation acquisition.

The Braves currently have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach in the top three spots of the rotation. Spencer Strider will return at some point in the season’s first half after undergoing UCL surgery last April. Depth options in Triple-A include Davis Daniel, Bryce Elder and prospects Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver. Once Strider returns, that’s a lot of arms for what’s effectively one rotation spot — assuming good health for each of Sale, Lopez and Schwellenbach.

As O’Brien suggested then, a bullpen addition makes a bit more sense. The Braves will likely be without Joe Jimenez all season after the right-hander underwent knee surgery, subtracting a key piece of their late-inning relief group. With Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee all on board, there’s still a strong high-leverage foundation, but there’s plenty of room to add a reliever and still remain under the luxury tax threshold, if that’s a goal.

RosterResource currently projects the Braves for a bit more than $230MM of tax obligations, leaving them nearly $11MM from the $241MM threshold. Notable unsigned relievers who could fit into that budget include Kyle Finnegan, Phil Maton, Andrew Chafin, Danny Coulombe, Tim Hill and injury rebound candidates such as Kendall Graveman, Lou Trivino and Keynan Middleton. If the Braves are willing to cross the tax threshold for a third straight season (or engineer a trade to clear up a bit more breathing room), names like Carlos Estevez and David Robertson remain available on the market.

Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Twins and Padres have both been fairly quiet this winter but could be ramping up to make some moves before the season starts. Per reporting from Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the club have discussed trade scenarios involving catcher Christian Vázquez but the Twins are also among the clubs that have interested in San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease.

That’s not to suggest that a one-for-one swap of Vázquez for Cease is at all feasible. Vázquez is going to make $10MM this year, making him a bit overpaid as a part-time, glove-first catcher. Cease, on the other hand, is an excellent starting pitcher who is going to make $13.75MM this  year. That gives him tremendous surplus value.

That the Twins would be interested in Cease is not surprising as just about any club would be, since he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past four years. From 2021 to 2024, he has made at least 32 starts in each of those seasons. His 716 innings thrown in that time is seventh in the majors behind only Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, José Berríos and Kevin Gausman.

That quantity has also come with quality, as Cease has allowed 3.52 earned runs per nine while striking out 29.7% of batters faced. His 9.7% walk rate was on the high side but not by much. His 17.2 wins above replacement in that time is sixth in the majors, behind the five the aforementioned pitchers but ahead of Berríos.

The best free agent pitchers generally get over $30MM annually, with Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes both getting over that line this year. Even older pitchers coming off injury-marred seasons like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander will outearn Cease this year, with each getting a $15MM salary for 2025.

All those factors make him very valuable to the Padres but they might be boxed into a corner where they have to consider making him available. RosterResource projects them for a $208MM payroll this year, which is well beyond last year’s $169MM figure. They can reportedly push a little higher than their 2024 number but not by too much, so cutting some decent money seems to be necessary. They will have to do that while also filling holes in left field and behind the plate, as well as the rotation.

There aren’t many great options for clearing money. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove all have no-trade clauses on their contracts. Jake Cronenworth only has an eight-team no-trade clause but his deal is tough to move regardless since his production dropped off after he signed that deal and there is still $71MM to be paid out over the next six years. Robert Suarez only has three years left on his deal but the opt-out/player option a year from now complicates trade talks.

All that leaves Luis Arráez and Cease as the best trade options. Each is going into his final arbitration season and set to make an eight-figure salary. However, Arráez may not have tremendous trade value, despite his elite batting averages. He’s not a good defender, baserunner or power threat, limiting his overall production.

It all leaves the Padres and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller with a tricky tightrope to walk. Cease is probably their best option for doing a trade somewhat resembling the Juan Soto deal from last offseason. In that deal, the Padres took one great player and his notable salary, trading him and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for a five-player package. One of those players was Michael King, who bolstered their rotation. Another was prospect Drew Thorpe, whom the Padres used to get Cease. The additions of Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito also bolstered the catching and pitching depth.

Flipping Cease to help in several areas might be the best option for the Friars now but it would also likely weaken the rotation that already looks like a soft spot. With Musgrove set to miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the rotation currently consists of King, Cease, Darvish and question marks. Guys like Vásquez, Brito, Matt Waldron and Adrián Morejón are potential back-end guys but it’s not a strong overall group. That would be even more true without Cease.

The Twins have their own financial concerns but could perhaps make it work with Cease. Recent reporting has suggested that the Twins don’t really need to cut payroll but don’t have much room to add at the moment either. Trading part of the $10MM owed to Vázquez would help, as could moving the $7.5MM owed to Chris Paddack or the $6.4MM for Willi Castro.

The Twins currently project to have a rotation consisting of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack. Swapping in Cease for Paddack would obviously be an upgrade, considering Paddack hasn’t pitched much over the past few years due to elbow issues, including Tommy John surgery, and has had middling results when on the hill.

The Twins also have some young and affordable pitching that would surely interest the Padres. Pitchers like Zebby Matthews and David Festa debuted in 2024 without much success but both were notable prospects last year and could still have plenty of success ahead of them. The fact that each still has six years of cheap control available would be great for the Padres, but the Twins would have to think about whether that’s a fair price for just one year of a pitcher like Cease. The Twins also have arms like Marco Raya, Travis Adams and C.J. Culpepper in their depth mix.

As recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, the Padres might look to last winter’s Burnes trade as a decent comparable for Cease. The Brewers flipped one year of Burnes for two notable prospects in DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Both were top 100-type prospects that had cracked the majors but hadn’t been established yet.

That is perhaps the kind of return that could work for the Padres. Subtracting Cease for pitchers like Matthews/Festa would lower their rotation certainty but give them more options at cheaper prices. The Twins may not be keen on such an arrangement, however, as the report from The Athletic indicates that they “would prefer to provide a value-laden package to replenish the Padres’ depth as opposed to the higher-upside talent Preller likes to hunt.”

Though Preller has been exceptionally quiet this winter, it’s possible that it’s time for him to pounce. The Padres were one of the finalists for Roki Sasaki and he would have been a massive help for their current predicament. As a plug-and-play ace who will be making the minimum salary this year, he would have been a great fit for the club both in terms of roster construction and their financial situation.

Perhaps Preller was waiting for clarity on that massive decision from Sasaki. Now that the young righty has officially signed with the Dodgers, Preller has to pivot to other options. Given his constraints, a Cease trade might have to be on his to-do list. If so, the Twins are surely not the only club interested, so Preller should be fielding plenty of calls.

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