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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a thrilling season on the whole, but a tumultuous roller coaster ride bookended by significant winning and losing streaks ultimately ended on a low note as they missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season. That’s a lengthy drought by their standards, as fans hadn’t yet been forced to endure such a streak during the new millenium.

On the one hand, the club has a formidable crew under team control for 2019, including several franchise mainstays, and can expect a reasonable degree of improvement from its wealth of young talent. On the other hand, its veteran core includes eight players over 30 years of age (six are at least 32), and they could be facing some decline in production and/or injury risk from many members of that group. The club’s front office will surely be taking a slew of complex factors into account as they try to put together a contender for 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart |St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Outlook]

Even after a relatively quiet trade deadline, the Cardinals surged to the forefront of the NL Central race with a torrid August that saw them go 22-6. But a mediocre 12-15 September cost them a chance to compete in the 2018 playoffs, proving that even the surprising midseason replacement of longtime manager Mike Matheny wasn’t enough to flip the club’s fate after a middling 47-46 start to the season. After three consecutive years of seeing their season end with game number 162, the perennially successful Cardinals organization could be facing a sense of urgency to right the ship and get back to October in order to satiate the fan base.

It’s difficult to tell where that process begins. While the team is loaded with fan favorites and high-caliber players in every area of the roster, they’re also staring down one or more significant question marks in their rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield. With their current construction, they’ve got an obviously good team. Unfortunately that’s not likely to cut the mustard in a division where they’re likely to face stiff competition from the Cubs and the now-soaring Brewers, both of whom have younger cores.

One of the simplest avenues would be to add several wins in one fell swoop, by paying for one of the market’s elite talents. The Cardinals have been connected to Bryce Harper this offseason, and have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for Manny Machado as well. Either would fit easily into the club’s puzzle, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend big on a marquee free agent after being putting in strong bids for Jason Heyward and David Price in offseasons past. It’s also worth pointing out that they worked out a deal to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last season before the slugger used his no-trade clause to veto the move to St. Louis. While any realistic offer to add one of the market’s two biggest prizes would surely dwarf any of the three aforementioned contract sums, the Redbirds’ involvement serves as an indicator that adding a superstar bat lies within the realm of possibility.

But the market for both Harper and Machado comes with strong competition, so we can easily assume that the Cards are exploring several contingency plans. For example, the club will likely be motivated to make an upgrade at the hot corner if Machado lands elsewhere. Carpenter is aging and probably profiles best at first base at this point in his career, and Josh Donaldson might be a fitting target after previous reports of interest from St. Louis. Even Mike Moustakas could serve as an interesting add. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees could explore the market for Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar in order to address their rotation, though it’s questionable whether the Cards would have any interest in giving up the type of young arm necessary to get a deal done. (Last night’s trade of James Paxton to the Yankees could also shift New York’s focus from the trade market to free agency for their remaining rotation needs.)

Turning an eye to the outfield, St. Louis may have in-house alternatives to signing Harper, should they lose out in that auction. Rookie Harrison Bader certainly earned a foothold on the center field job, and Ozuna is a lock to hold down left field. While Harper’s presence in right would make for a formidable outfield alignment, Fowler probably can’t be counted out as dead weight after a single horrendous season. Beyond him, the club has former top prospect Tyler O’Neill champing at the bit to follow up on a promising debut.

Absent from that list of in-house options is slugger Jose Martinez, who had an excellent offensive showing but proved to be an outright defensive liability. With that in mind, it seems unlikely he’ll be a part of their outfield plans come springtime (though the possibility shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, either), and his performance at first base even begs questions about whether his glove can be relied upon at all. Overall, the returns on playing him were positive; he yielded an above-average fWAR figure thanks to his excellent contact and on-base skills coupled with above-average power. But if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, they could look to explore shopping the slugger to American League team that might value him a bit more highly thanks to the ability to protect him from being entirely exposed defensively. There’d certainly be a number of suitors.

The bullpen is perhaps the Cardinals’ most glaring area of concern. A number of statistical shortcomings (including the second-highest walk rate of any ’pen in the game) led to a -4.54 WPA figure that would have stood as the worst in all of baseball save for the disastrous showing by a largely inexperienced Marlins relief corps. Norris, who held down the closer role for most of the season and was their bullpen’s most consistent fixture, is set to depart as a free agent. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll probably find it necessary to find at least one viable alternative on the free agent market.

Make no mistake, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be desperate to find anyone with closer experience. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak has said the Cardinals believe flamethrowing righty Jordan Hicks could succeed in that role (though as always that could simply be a negotiating technique), but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually have the job on opening day. The market is littered with former closers (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera), but it’s not difficult to imagine them instead rolling with Hicks and adding an upside lefty like Andrew Miller or Zach Britton. Speculation on specific names aside, it seems inevitable that the bullpen is an area to which they’ll allocate at least some money.

It’s worth noting that St. Louis will almost inevitably see some positive regression in relief performance, too. It’s more likely that Brett Cecil will rebound somewhat than that he’ll endure another career-low performance. Likewise, it’s improbable that the usually-durable Luke Gregerson will spend such an excessive amount of time on the DL. They won’t have Greg Holland walking nearly eight batters per nine innings across half a season’s worth of work, while Sam Tuivailala and Tyler Lyons represent other possible instances of addition by subtraction. Meanwhile John Brebbia, Dominic Leone and Dakota Hudson all had encouraging showings. In other words, while the Cardinals have some work to do in order to cover high-leverage innings, their situation isn’t quite as eyebrow-raising as a team like the Indians, for example.

Martinez, Wacha, Mikolas and rookie sensation Jack Flaherty seem like good bets to return to the rotation for 2019, while Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver and Adam Wainwright all in the mix for starts as well depending on health and performance. There’s room for improvement in their rotation, but it’s also not a bad cast overall; certainly other contenders are facing more daunting rotation questions. The situation gets murkier beyond 2019, though, as the contracts of Wacha, Mikolas and Wainwright all expire at season’s end. For that reason, we could see the Redbirds check in on free agents or trade targets whom they could keep in the fold for multiple seasons beyond the next. There’s no real urgency to do so, but there could easily be motivation given the right price and player.

The Cardinals are also an organization known for locking up many of their young players pre-arbitration, and this spring could present many opportunities to do just that. A wave of young players impressed last season, and the ever-opportunistic Cardinals brass could look to capitalize on the chance on some early extensions. Flaherty, Hicks, Bader and O’Neill could represent a strong core for years to come, and gaining additional control and cost-certainty over some of that group could allow the Cardinals to feel secure as some of their older veterans depart or retire in the near future.

Whatever path the Cardinals take this offseason, it seems unlikely to be a quiet one. With motivation to end an unusually long playoff drought, the organization will want to set new manager Mike Shildt up for success. They’ve got money to spend, a reasonable amount of prospect capital, and just enough positional flexibility on the roster to allow them to fit the right player into the picture if the opportunity arises. That should present a comfortable cavalcade of potential strategies to one simple end: add enough wins to remain competitive with a pair of formidable divisional opponents.

Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes

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After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.

Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

  • In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
  • While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
  • Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
  • As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/18

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Cardinals announced a slate of minor league signings, including right-hander Mike Hauschild, left-hander Hunter Cervenka, catcher Joe Hudson, catcher Jose Godoy and first baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo. Each received an invitation to Major League Spring Training. St. Louis also announced previously reported Spring Training invites for Tommy Layne and Williams Perez, as well as minor league deals without Spring Training invites for righties Harold Arauz and Ramon Santos. Hauschild, 29 in January, has been hit hard in 16 1/3 MLB innings but has a career 4.02 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 437 Triple-A innings (all as a starter). Cervenka posted a 3.53 ERA in 43 1/3 innings between the Braves and Marlins back in 2016 but showed serious control problems along the way and has scarcely pitched in the Majors since. Hudson,27, made a brief big league debut with the Angels in September after a quality showing between their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. The 24-year-old Godoy and 26-year-old Ravelo are returning to the Cardinals organization. Godoy showed some solid OBP skills in High-A, while Ravelo raked at a .308/.392/.487 pace in 399 PAs with Memphis in his first season with the organization.
  • The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Regnault for the 2019 season (link via the Japan Times). Soon to turn 30, Regnault spent his first three professional seasons pitching in indy ball before joining the Mets in 2015. All of his work with affiliated clubs has come in the Mets’ system, and Regnault has a 4.10 ERA with a 130-to-47 K/BB ratio in 109 2/3 innings of Triple-A work. In his first season overseas, Regnault will secure a $400K base salary with the opportunity to earn more via incentives, as well as a $125K signing bonus (hat tip to Yakyudb.com). For a lefty that was on the indy circuit just four years ago, that’s a nice chunk of guaranteed money to bring home, and continued success in NPB would obviously lead to greater earning power.

Minor-League Pitching Signings: 11/14/18

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We’ll use this quiet morning to catch up on a few recently reported minor-league signings of veteran pitchers that we haven’t yet covered (with a hat tip to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com for noting them) …

  • The Dodgers inked righty Kevin Quackenbush to a minors deal, his representatives at Full Circle Sports Management announced. Quackenbush broke into the majors in intriguing fashion back in 2014, then gave the Padres two more seasons of useful innings, but has fallen off more recently. He was banged around in a brief MLB showing last year with the Reds, but did give the team’s top affiliate 47 frames of 2.68 ERA ball with 10.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
  • Righty Jake Buchanan is heading to the Athletics on a minor-league pact, Melissa Lockard of The Athletic tweets. Now 29 years of age, Buchanan has seen action with three teams in the majors but has yet to command a significant opportunity at the game’s highest level. Last year, he struggled to a 5.17 ERA in 156 2/3 Triple-A innings with the Diamondbacks. Buchanan was originally an eighth-round pick of the Astros.
  • The Rays have a deal with southpaw Ryan Merritt, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Whether or not he makes it back to the majors, Merritt’s status as a legend was safely established when he turned in 4 1/3 scoreless innings for the Indians in the 2016 ALCS. Despite that stunning appearance, Merritt hasn’t seen much regular-season MLB action. That’s due in no small part to the fact that he has had knee and shoulder troubles arise. Merritt did return last year, rather unbelievably allowing only two walks, while recording 52 strikeouts, in his 71 1/3 Triple-A frames.
  • Southpaw Tommy Layne is going to the Cardinals along with former MLB starter Williams Perez, according to Josh Jones (via Twitter), Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com (via Twitter) and the Mariners Minors Twitter account (link). Layne, 34, has appeared in 216 MLB games over a six-year run at the game’s highest level, but hasn’t been there since 2017. He was quite effective in 29 upper-minors innings last year in the Cards system, working to a 1.24 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9, so he could compete for a job in camp. The 27-year-old Perez was a gap-filling piece for the Braves in 2015 and 2016. He, too, impressed in the upper minors last year, with a 2.45 ERA in 99 frames (mostly at Double-A) in the Mariners system.

Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards

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With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.

While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:

  • Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
  • There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
  • So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
  • Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
  • We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.

Latest On Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

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We took a look yesterday at some of the early chatter on Bryce Harper. While the early chatter has been less voluminous with regard to fellow superstar Manny Machado, there’s little doubt that he will have his moment as well. As the stage-setting GM Meetings draw to a close, let’s check in on some additional notes on the market’s most-hyped free agents.

  • Some eyebrows raised this evening when it was observed that the White Sox had unveiled a stage set at Chicago’s United Center featuring Bryce Harper’s name. As Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports explains, there’s no reason to think this was the beginning of the roll-out of a signing; our readers from the south side can safely inform friends and neighbors that there’s nothing imminent. More likely, it’s part of a recruiting pitch for the popular young free agent, who is in Chicago today. The news shouldn’t be blown out of proportion, clearly, but that doesn’t mean it’s of no consequence. Evidently, the White Sox are serious enough pursuers that they have secured an in-person visit and are putting resources into a pitch. That certainly dovetails with recent reports and public statements from the organization indicating that the club is looking to spend. It also bodes well for Harper’s market that a team such as the White Sox is making a run at him even after he reportedly turned down a $300MM offer to remain in D.C.
  • As for the cross-town Cubs, all indications remain that they do not see themselves as a contender for Harper’s services, as ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reiterates on Twitter. As Rogers puts it, if the club is “playing possum,” it’s “doing a heck of a job” at selling the act.
  • It remains to be seen what stance the Giants will take with regard to Harper, particularly as Farhan Zaidi settles into his new digs atop the club’s baseball operations department. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, though, agent Scott Boras certainly seems to see San Francisco as a viable landing spot for his client. Harper, he says, views the organization fondly — and would not only deliver value on the field, but off of it. As for the club’s viewpoint, it’s tough to say whether Harper will be deemed a sensible target. CEO Larry Baer said “there’s no restrictions” for his new top baseball decisionmaker; whether or not to join the bidding on Harper (or other hyper-expensive free agents) is “a judgment [Zaidi] is going to need to make.”
  • Of course, as Shea highlights, and Baer himself noted, that sort of outlay did not fit the M.O. of either of Zaidi’s prior two ballclubs — even those pesky division rivals to the south. Speaking of the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times wrote recently that Harper is a player worthy of breaking the mold (and the bank) to acquire. Beyond his qualities as a ballplayer, Hernandez argues that Harper has the star power — and the right kind of attitude — to thrive in Los Angeles.
  • Interestingly, the Cardinals, per Jon Heyman of Fancred, “do not seem interested” in Machado despite seemingly lining up from the perspective of roster need. But there has been quite a lot of discussion in St. Louis circles as to whether Harper might be a target. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch laid out the state of affairs recently. The Cards, he says, are seen as “a factor” in the market for Harper. While some would write the St. Louis organization off due to a lack of monster contracts on their ledger, it’s worth bearing in mind that the club has entered significant bids for players such as Jason Heyward (see here) and David Price (see here) in recent seasons, and also sought to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last winter.
  • And what of the Yankees? The situation hasn’t really changed since last we checked in, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a crack at thinking through how things may play out. There’s little indication at present that the New York club has any real intention of going for Harper. But Machado makes for a much more intriguing roster fit, and could prove particularly tantalizing.

NL Central Rumors: Reds, Cubs’ Bullpen, Cardinals

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Though there’s been plenty of talk about the Reds’ willingness to increase payroll and their pursuit of rotation upgrades, Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the team isn’t likely to make any “top-tier glamorous” additions in free agency. Daugherty hears that Cincinnati may be willing to boost payroll by as much as $30MM but is looking to add a mid-rotation arm and a “middle-to-late-inning reliever.” The Reds, he opines, should be open to dealing some of their young hitters — even those who’ve reached the Majors — for pitching help, as it’s difficult to sway free-agent arms to sign up to pitch half their games at Great American Ball Park. Regardless of he means by which they choose to do so, the Reds seem determined to bolster the pitching staff this winter.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • “Adding bullpen depth is a priority,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said Wednesday at the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, Calif. (link via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago). Hoyer noted that, ideally, the Cubs would add some quality left-handed help to the relief corps, though he also indicated that the greater concern is simply in building a quality relief unit and the depth necessary to keep top arms fresh down the stretch. Levine writes that in addition to their pursuit of a left-handed bullpen arm, the Cubs are hoping to bring veteran righty Jesse Chavez back into the fold. Chavez, 35, posted a 1.15 ERA and a ridiculous 42-to-5 K/BB ratio in 39 innings for the Cubs after being acquired from the Rangers.
  • The Cardinals are once again in the market for a big bat, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the GM Meetings that the current thinking is “more infield than outfield.” Goold notes that Bryce Harper would be one notable exception to that line of thinking, but the rest of the free agents the Cards currently like appear to be of the corner infield variety. Adding a third baseman or first baseman is plausible, given Matt Carpenter’s versatility. Goold adds that the trade market could present numerous alternatives, with players like Paul Goldschmidt potentially being made available on the trade market. The D-backs are reportedly open to entertaining offers for key players, and with just one year and $14.5MM remaining on his contract, it’s only natural that Goldschmidt’s name will be bandied about the rumor mill over the next few months as teams try to pry the perennial MVP candidate away from Arizona. That’s but one of many options, of course, as Goold explores at greater length in his column.

Rick Ankiel Undergoes Elbow Surgery, Still Plans To Attempt Comeback

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Former pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel, who has been working toward a return to the mound, will be delayed in his effort after undergoing elbow surgery. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, a procedure was performed to fix damage to Ankiel’s ulnar collateral ligament.

Since Ankiel avoided a full-blown UCL replacement, he won’t require a year-or-more rehabilitation timetable. Still, he’ll be sidelined for quite a while. Per Goold, the estimate is that he’ll be ready to go by the middle of the 2019 season.

Despite the setback, the 39-year-old will not give up on his effort to make yet another stirring comeback. Ankiel had been working out at the Cardinals’ spring facility and clearly has the full support of the organization. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak says that the club remains interested in discussing a contract when Ankiel is ready to resume his march back toward the majors.

Pitching Market Rumors: Braves, Happ, White Sox, Kelley, Padres, Cardinals

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The Braves are interested in adding a closer this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi at the GM Meetings (Twitter link). That’s a fairly broad term, especially in 2018-19, so there’ll be no shortage of options for the Atlanta organization to pursue. Former Braves star Craig Kimbrel, of course, headlines the free-agent class of relievers, while Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are among the most recognizable names on the next tier of a fairly deep class of a relievers. Trade targets are harder to pin down, though several names have been generally kicked around the rumor mill recently, including Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, San Diego’s Kirby Yates and Seattle’s Alex Colome. Several other names will become available as the season wears on, and the Braves figure to be connected to a wide swath of ’pen options as they look to add a high-leverage reliever to the mix.

Some more bullpen and rotation rumblings from the early stages of the offseason…

  • The Blue Jays met with J.A. Happ’s representatives today, tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. General manager Ross Atkins tells Davidi that Happ is “one of my favorite people in baseball” before also acknowledging that there’ll be ample competition for his services this offseason. Happ just turned 36, but despite the fact that he’s entering the later stages of his career, he remained as effective as ever in 2018. The veteran southpaw turned in 177 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA ball with a career-best 9.8 K/9 mark against 2.6 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 with a 40.1 percent grounder rate. Happ’s 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate was also the highest of his career, while his 31.7 percent chase rate was his second-best mark as a big leaguer. Fellow lefty Rich Hill received a three-year guarantee that stretched into his age-39 season a couple of years ago, so it’s conceivable that Happ could also find three-year offers (which would run into his age-38 campaign).
  • Morosi tweets that Happ and Patrick Corbin are among the names the White Sox have considered early in free agency, noting that the ChiSox only have one starter (Reynaldo Lopez) who threw more than 50 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA this past season. Rotation help is a clear area of need for the Sox, though competition for the likes of Corbin and Happ will be fierce. Both starters should draw interest from upwards of two thirds of the team in the league, with Corbin’s market being particularly robust given his status as the best arm on the 2018-19 free agent market.
  • Although veteran reliever Shawn Kelley suggested earlier this year that he could retire after the 2018 season, agent Mike McCann tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that Kelley has decided to suit up for another season (Twitter links). Dr. James Andrews recently performed X-rays and an MRI on Kelley and gave him a clean bill of health, Crasnick adds. Set to turn 35 in April, Kelley pitched to a strong 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 1.29 HR/9 in 49 innings this season. Kelley doesn’t throw hard (average 91.2 mph fastball in ’18) but has a lengthy track record of missing bats and has notched a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. The lone exception was a 2017 campaign in which he was limited to 26 innings due to a pair of back issues that landed him on the disabled list.
  • The Padres are in the market for starting pitching help this winter, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but they’ll focus on younger rotation options. San Diego’s goal, per Acee, would be to add someone to pitch at the front of the 2019 rotation and still contribute when the Friars are more concrete contenders. Unsurprisingly, he lists right-hander Nathan Eovaldi as a Padres target. Eovaldi has yet to turn 29, and his strong season split between the Rays and Red Sox — brought into a more mainstream focus with a big postseason showing — will place him on the radar for virtually every team seeking starting rotation help. San Diego did issue a club-record $144MM contract to Eric Hosmer last offseason and an $83MM extension to Wil Myers a year prior, indicating that new ownership isn’t afraid to spend money (though Eovaldi’s market almost certainly won’t push to those levels).
  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today that the organization has confidence that flamethrowing right-hander Jordan Hicks could succeed as the team’s closer next season, but that confidence doesn’t necessarily mean he will be in that role (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Goold notes that the Cards could add a left-handed and right-handed reliever this winter. The Cards overhauled their ’pen in significant fashion over the summer when they released Greg Holland, outrighted Tyler Lyons and traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners. Since that time, Bud Norris has hit the open market and Matthew Bowman has gone to the Reds via waivers, thus further adding to the potential for turnover.

Market Chatter: White Sox, Zunino, Kimbrel, Cards, Giants, Phils, Yanks

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What role will the White Sox play in this free agent market? It’s an open question whether the club will come away with any significant players, but it also seems increasingly likely that it will be heavily involved at all levels of the market. MLBTR did not pick the South Siders to land any of the top fifty free agents, but as noted in that post, the club could pursue quite a few of the players listed. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi even names the White Sox as potential pursuers of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out the case for the Sox to spend (subscription link), while Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the club is expressing an inclination to “take a step forward now.” Meanwhile, on the other side of town, indications remain that the Cubs will not spend a big chunk of change this winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post is the latest to report (Twitter link).

Clearly, the White Sox are an interesting team to watch. Even if it’s arguably a bit premature for significant investments, it certainly doesn’t hurt that they play in the sport’s worst overall division. Elsewhere …

  • The competition in the AL West seems to be driving the Mariners to sell. It’s unclear as yet how deep the cuts will go, but talks are already opening up. The M’s are chatting with the Rays about catcher Mike Zunino, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). With two years of control remaining, the 27-year-old backstop presents an interesting alternative to the free agent market for catchers. He’s an inconsistent but high-powered offensive performer who is generally seen as a quality defender.
  • The Cardinals and incumbent Red Sox are among the suitors for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kimbrel is among the players who appear to be candidates to land earlier-than-usual contracts, by Morosi’s reckoning. (He mentions a few possible landing spots for others on his list, though it’s not apparent that the connections are based upon more than his analysis.)
  • Certainly, it seems the motivation is there for the Cardinals to pursue significant players. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the St. Louis front office is looking hard at ways to improve. GM Mike Girsch says the team has a competitive roster as things stand, but wants to exit the offseason with “a division-leading roster.” The piece is full of worthwhile reading for Cards fans, particularly those interested in gaining some perspective on the team’s market positioning in relation to Harper and Machado. All told, it seems reasonable not to rule the Cards out as a possible pursuer of any free agent.
  • Manny and Bryce are popular considerations for most teams, of course, even if they won’t realistically be pursued by all that many organizations. The Giants are perhaps a likelier suitor than may be evident from a passing glance, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. While the San Francisco organization struggled last year, has quite a few big contracts on the books, and doesn’t currently have a GM in place, Shea says that this kind of ownership-driven decision could still be pursued.
  • Lost in the hype for those popular young free agents is the never-ending search for pitching. While the rotation was and is a strong suit for the Phillies, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. Indeed, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes, it could make sense for the organization to use some trade assets to add a starter — in addition, of course, to pursuing a superstar position player on the open market. Salisbury tabs southpaws Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and James Paxton of the Mariners as two particular names to watch.
  • Likewise, as they consider their pitching options, the Yankees will look at the still-developing trade market. Per Heyman, via Twitter, the Yanks have at least some level of interest in the top arms that have newly entered the sphere of trade candidates. New York’s brass will meet with their counterparts with the Indians, who are dangling Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees are also said to have some interest in Paxton. Those three are among the game’s better starters, so it’s hardly surprising to hear the connections.
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