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Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers Test Positive For Covid-19

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May 12: Wil Myers, who actually started last night’s game, exited after three innings when the team learned of a positive Covid-19 test, manager Jayce Tingler revealed after the game (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Eric Hosmer, meanwhile, departed for contact-tracing purposes and has been placed on the injured list as a result. The league’s health-and-safety protocols stipulate that a player who tests positive will be away from the team for at least 10 days.

The Padres selected outfielder Patrick Kivlehan to take Myers’ roster spot. Kivlehan, whom the Padres signed to a minor league deal over the winter, has hit .208/.302/.401 with 10 home runs in 242 PA in the bigs.

May 11, 4:34pm: Tatis tested positive for COVID-19 and is asymptomatic, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets. Profar and Mateo are in contact tracing. To fill their open roster spots, the Padres selected the contract of outfielder John Andreoli and recalled a pair of players – infielder/outfielder Tucupita Marcano and righty Nabil Crismatt – per a club announcement.

3:34pm: The Padres announced that they have placed shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and utilitymen Jurickson Profar and Jorge Mateo on the injured list because of Major League Baseball’s health and safety protocols. They’ll decide on corresponding moves before their game against the Rockies on Tuesday.

As is typically the case in COVID-related situations, there isn’t any word on how much time any of these players will miss. Regardless, it’s a blow to the Padres’ offensive depth. Tatis has gotten off to an effective start, albeit with much less on-base ability than he flashed in his first two seasons, having batted .240/.315/.552 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in 108 plate appearances. Profar owns a far less imposing .234/.333/.308 line with a home run and five steals over 128 PA, though he has shown off defensive versatility by lining up at first base, second base and both corner outfield spots. And Mateo has hit a useful .250/.325/.417 through his first 40 trips to the plate this year.

This is the second time this year the Padres will have to go some time without Tatis, who was on the 10-day IL for part of April on account of a shoulder injury. They used Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim at short in Tatis’ absence then. Profar, meanwhile, has been the Padres’ primary starter in left field, but Tommy Pham hasn’t been far behind. He figures to get the lion’s share of action there with Profar out.

Padres Re-Sign Jurickson Profar

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JAN. 27: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has the full breakdown of the deal, which is now official: Profar will earn a $3.5MM salary and a $2.5MM signing bonus next season; 2022 includes a $6.5MM player option or a $1MM buyout; 2023 features a $7.5MM player option or a $1MM buyout; and Profar has a $10MM mutual option or a $1MM buyout for 2024. He’ll earn another $350K every time he’s traded.

JAN. 22: 10:32am: Profar’s contract contains an opt-out clause after each of the first two seasons, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

10:02am: The Padres have agreed to re-sign infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $21MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Jurickson Profar | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

A new deal with Profar marks the latest strike in an ultra-aggressive winter for the Padres, who have already acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the trade market in addition to signing Korea Baseball Organization superstar Ha-Seong Kim on a four-year deal. Kim’s ability to bounce around the infield and support the trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth at any position likely means that Profar is again ticketed for more work on the outfield grass than in the infield, although his versatility will allow him to be deployed virtually anywhere skipper Jayce Tingler sees fit.

The three-year term on the Profar deal registers as a bit of a surprise, though the Padres had some competition for the soon-to-be 28-year-old. The Royals were known to have interest in Profar, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox “tried hard” to sign Profar before he ultimately returned to San Diego.

The 2020 season was Profar’s first with the Padres, who acquired him last winter in a deal with the A’s. Profar got out to a disastrous start to the season but rode a sizzling hot streak over the final three-plus weeks of the season to finish out the year with a .278/.343/.428 batting line.

Profar’s season is representative of the difficulty in evaluating players on the heels of such a short year; the end results look solid, but it also should be noted that as late into the season as Aug. 27, Profar was batting .181/.291/.319. That was surely a cause of some concern for some clubs, as was the fact that Profar ranked in the 23rd percentile or worse in terms of exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Statcast.

That said, Profar was clearly still a fairly in-demand free agent. That’s plenty understandable given that back in 2013, he was regarded as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. Profar rocketed through the Rangers’ system after being signed as an amateur out of Curacao, making his MLB debut at just 19 years old in the final weeks of the 2012 season. Unfortunately for both him and for the Rangers, a pair of shoulder injuries led to multiple surgeries, wiping out two full years of development.

Profar never established himself as a regular in Texas, struggling to find playing time behind a veteran infield that included the likes of Adrian Beltre and an in-his-prime Elvis Andrus. Profar had an above-average year at the plate in 2018 as a utility player but still found himself traded to Oakland that winter — a match that didn’t pan out whatsoever. The A’s picked up Profar in hopes that he could solidify second base for his remaining two years of team control, but he battled a borderline case of the yips that resulted in a slew of throwing errors and batted just .218/.310/.401 in 139 games. Oakland traded him to San Diego after that lone year.

Three-year deal notwithstanding, Profar is in many regards still something of a project. The 2020 and 2018 seasons are the only two years he’s ever been at least average at the plate, and as this past season showed, he’s yet to find much consistency at the dish. That said, it was Padres general manager A.J. Preller who was running the Rangers’ international scouting operations when Profar originally signed as a 16-year-old. Based on not only the surprising size of the contract but also the multiple opt-out provisions, Preller seemingly remains a firm believer that Profar can match or exceed last year’s composite output.

That said, the inclusion of the two opt-out clauses effectively saps any upside for the Padres in this contract. If Profar reverts to his ways as a light-hitting utility piece without a position where he’s a true plus defender, the Friars will be on the hook for the full $21MM. If he, at any point, performs at an above-average level, he’ll surely head back to the open market in search of a larger deal — especially given his relative youth. The best outcome for the Padres would be for Profar to rake in 2021 and head back to market, and this contract structure is essentially a $21MM bet that that’ll be the case.

The Padres were already projected to open the season with a roughly $167MM payroll prior to their new deal with Profar. That would’ve been a franchise-record in its own right, but Friars ownership will continue to buck the common trend of shedding payroll taken by most clubs this winter, instead spending at new levels in their effort to dethrone the Dodgers, who have won eight consecutive division titles and, of course, toppled the Rays in the 2020 World Series. The $7MM annual value on Profar’s deal also pushed the Padres to more than $177MM in luxury-tax obligations.

Free Agency Notes: Mets, Richards, Red Sox, Profar, Bench Bat

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The Mets made a play for Garrett Richards before the veteran righty signed with the Red Sox, notes MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Mets have made their rotation a project this offseason. They are seemingly in a good place even without Richards, however. Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman make for a very strong top three, and hopes remain high that David Peterson will maintain a spot behind them. Noah Syndergaard plans to join that group at some point, and even if Seth Lugo returns to the bullpen, the Mets have no shortage of depth options – foremost of which might be the recently-acquired Joey Lucchesi. Beyond the ex-Padre, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff surely have eyes for the rotation. In other news…

  • The Red Sox themselves were runners-up in an attempt to sign Jurickson Profar, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. Boston, of course, ended up with Kiké Hernández on a similar, but shorter contract. It’s not clear if the Red Sox preferred Profar to Hernandez, though Hernández signing merely hours after Profar re-upped with San Diego is notable. Still, one does not necessarily follow the other. All we can say for certain is that Profar’s returning to San Diego thinned Boston’s market for versatile utility types. That the Red Sox engaged in parallel negotiations with similar players doesn’t actually speak to their priorities where those players are concerned.
  • After all, they may very well have been interested in signing both players, as Boston remains on the hunt for a lefty bench bat. In a perfect world, the Red Sox would find someone who could complement Bobby Dalbec at first, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Cotillo floats Marwin Gonzalez, Brad Miller, and Mitch Moreland as some players that might fit the bill. Boston’s bench leans heavily to the right at present, with Jonathan Arauz as one of very few organizational options as a lefty bat off the bench unless Jarren Duran makes the team out of spring training.

Trade/FA Notes: Santander, Profar, Bart, Yates, T. Williams

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Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has drawn trade interest this winter, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. However, as Kubatko suggests, that doesn’t necessarily mean Santander will go anywhere. The 26-year-old is coming off a highly productive season in which he batted .261/.315/.575 (130 wRC+) with 11 home runs, and he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until after 2024. Santander will earn a projected $1.7MM to $3MM in arbitration next season. All of that makes Santander an appealing trade candidate, but the Orioles could simply retain him as a building block.

  • The Padres are still attempting to re-sign free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The switch-hitting Profar, 27, spent last season with San Diego, where he batted .278/.343/.428 (111 wRC+) with seven home runs in 202 trips to the plate. Defensively, Profar divided most of his time between left field and second base. Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth are among the options for the Padres at those spots, but the team seems to believe it will be able to keep fitting Profar in if it re-signs him. MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason that Profar would land a one-year, $7MM contract in free agency.
  • Clubs “routinely ask about” Giants catcher Joey Bart in trade talks, Rosenthal writes. The Giants are not actively attempting to move the 24-year-old, though, according to Rosenthal. Bart, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, got off to a rough start in the majors last year with a .233/.288/.320 line, no home runs and 41 strikeouts against three walks in 111 plate appearances. However, Bart was dominant at the Double-A level the previous season. He or Patrick Bailey, the Giants’ first-round pick last summer, could end up as their answer at catcher when the iconic Buster Posey departs (potentially after next season).
  • The Twins were among the finalists for reliever Kirby Yates before he agreed to join the Blue Jays on Tuesday, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News relays. It’s not surprising the Twins were in on one of the open market’s highest-profile relievers, as their bullpen has taken hits this offseason with Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard getting to free agency. May signed with the Mets, though Romo and Clippard remain without contracts.
  • Former Mets general manager Jared Porter was part of negotiations for right-hander Trevor Williams before the team fired the executive Tuesday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear if the Porter-less Mets will continue pursuing Williams, whom the Pirates designated for assignment in November, especially after acquiring fellow starter Joey Lucchesi from the Padres on Monday. Williams was a solid part of the Pirates’ rotation from 2017-18, but he struggled to a 5.60 ERA/5.01 SIERA in 201 innings and 37 appearances (all starts) between 2019-20.

Padres In Talks With Kirby Yates, Still Interested In Jurickson Profar

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Having radically overhauled their rotation and infield mix this week with the acquisitions of Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Ha-Seong Kim, the Padres are now shifting their focus to the bullpen and to outfield depth, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Their current pursuits include a pair of potential reunions: closer Kirby Yates and infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar.

Yates, according to Acee, is “likely looking at” an incentive-laden deal with a guarantee upwards of $5MM. Profar’s target price isn’t fully clear, though Acee suggests the Padres’ interest has been in a deal around the $5MM range as well. There’s no indication that either Yates of Profar is close to a deal that would bring them back to San Diego, but the interest and potential price ranges are nevertheless of note.

The continued interest in Profar, in particular, was far from a given after this week’s dealings. San Diego’s four-year deal with Kim added another option to an already crowded infield mix — so much so that there have been varying reports on the possibility of toying with either Kim or 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jake Cronenworth in left field. Profar would only further add another second base/left field option to the pile.

Presently, the Padres’ starting outfield is likely to consist of Wil Myers, Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham. The team does lack an experienced reserve option, though. Neither Kim nor Cronenworth has any outfield experience of note. Other options include Greg Allen, former top prospect Jorge Mateo and young Jorge Ona. San Diego also has 28-year-old Brian O’Grady on the 40-man roster at the moment, but his MLB experience is limited to 53 plate appearances. Both Allen and Mateo are out of minor league options, which would work in their favor if they made it to the end of Spring Training still on the 40-man roster, but neither impressed in 2020.

Turning to the bullpen, the Padres have a rather deep slate of options even if a reunion with Yates or a new contract with a similar veteran can’t be worked out. Both Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan have considerable late-inning experience. Matt Strahm has emerged as a quality ’pen option in recent years, and righty Pierce Johnson was excellent in his return from Japan this past season. San Diego also picked up Dan Altavilla and strikeout machine Austin Adams from the Mariners in the Austin Nola/Taylor Trammell swap, and veteran Craig Stammen is still under contract for another season. None of that even gets into the bevy of young arms in the upper levels of the Padres’ system.

Still, the appeal of Yates is obvious. Though bone spurs in his elbow limited the 34-year-old to just 4 1/3 innings in 2020, Yates starred as one of baseball’s premier relievers with the Padres from 2018-19, pitching to a combined 1.67 ERA with 13.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and racking up 53 saves along the way. Few relievers on the market can match his upside, making him a particularly appealing gamble for a club with plenty of alternate depth.

This week’s flurry of activity will likely push the Padres’ 2021 payroll north of $160MM, which would position them as the rare MLB team to actually match last year’s payroll totals. Further additions, even smaller-scale pickups such as Yates or Profar, would almost certainly push San Diego’s payroll even higher than last year’s franchise-record mark.

Padres Notes: Infield, Profar, Yates

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No Major League Baseball team has done more to improve itself recently than the Padres, who aren’t content to rest on their laurels after earning their first playoff berth since 2006. Going back to Sunday, the Padres have acquired 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell from the Rays, reached a deal with Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim and agreed to land right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from the Cubs. In an extensive breakdown of the Padres’ sudden flurry of moves, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN declares that they’re one of the two best teams in baseball, joining the division-rival Dodgers. And even after the Snell and Darvish trades, the Padres still boast a well-above-average farm system. In McDaniel’s estimation, San Diego could be a serious contender “without any real sign of a terrible contract” for at least the next three years.

Here’s more on the Padres:

  • The Padres are open to trying both Kim and Jake Cronenworth in the outfield next season, tweets Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There have been conflicting reports on San Diego’s plans for Cronenworth, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Rookie of the Year runner-up. Joel Sherman of the New York Post said yesterday the plan was to move him to the outfield with Kim taking regular reps at second base, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night that one source in the organization said there are no plans to put Cronenworth in the outfield. The team will evaluate its options in Spring Training, it seems. It’s perhaps even worth pointing out that the club has previously considered the possibility of Fernando Tatis Jr. in the outfield, so the Friars will certainly be open-minded in sorting out their infield mix.
  • Thanks in part to the addition of Kim, it “appears unlikely” the Padres will re-sign free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, Lin reports. The switch-hitting Profar enjoyed a productive year in 2020, which could go down as his lone season as a Padre, with a .277/.343/.428 line, seven home runs and seven stolen bases in 202 plate appearances. But it doesn’t look as if there’s room in San Diego anymore for Profar, as team officials suggested Monday that the Pads’ bench is at capacity, per Lin.
  • A Profar reunion may not be in the cards, but with the Padres still needing to bolster their bullpen, it’s a “possibility” they’ll re-sign free-agent reliever Kirby Yates, Lin writes. Yates unexpectedly turned into an elite reliever after San Diego claimed him via waivers from the Angels in 2017, and he went on to pitch to a 2.31 ERA/2.42 FIP with 13.95 K/9, 2.46 BB/9 and 54 saves in 179 1/3 innings through 2019. However, Yates barely factored in during his contract year last season because of elbow problems. The 33-year-old righty tallied just four innings before undergoing surgery in the middle of August. For the Padres or other teams hoping for a revival, though, Yates could make for an interesting pickup on what’s sure to be a reasonable contract.

Padres, Royals Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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The Padres and Royals are among the teams showing interest in free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the same, adding that the Padres “are trying” to bring Profar back to the organization. It’s sensible that the Padres want him back; he was solid there in 2020 and GM A.J. Preller was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Profar’s developmental years. Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.

Profar’s end-of-season numbers certainly look appealing. The 27-year-old (28 in February) slashed .278/.343/.428 with seven homers, six doubles and seven steals through 202 plate appearances, adding in a career-low 13.9 percent strikeout rate. It’s the second time in three seasons that Profar rated as an above-average hitter per both OPS+ and wRC+.

That said, there’s also reason for some caution with regard to Profar’s production. Things can change quickly in a 60-game, 200-plate appearance sample, and that was certainly the case in this instance. Through the first 30 games and 111 plate appearances of the 2020 season, Profar posted a .181/.291/.319 slash with four home runs and one double. He had some miserable batted-ball luck in that time (.171 BABIP), but Profar’s season exemplifies the difficulty of how to evaluate players coming off this year’s 60-game slate; for half the year he was among the worst hitters in MLB, and for his final 91 plate appearances he was among the game’s best (albeit with a whopping .423 BABIP in that time as the pendulum swung the other direction).

Profar is lacking in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his low strikeout rate and a passable walk rate still lead metrics like Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) to peg him as a slightly above-average hitter based on the quality and regularity of contact made.

Defensively, Profar has been moved off second base twice in the past two seasons — first in Oakland and then in San Diego (although the move in San Diego was perhaps more about Jake Cronenworth’s emergence as it was Profar’s struggles). Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His marks in 2020 were better, and it’s only fair to point out that those same metrics suggest Profar was anywhere from a passable to very good left fielder for the Padres in 2020.

Taken in totality, Profar’s last three seasons have produced a league-average hitter who is capable of playing three infield positions, but perhaps none of them especially well, with an encouraging but small sample of work in left field. He’s an efficient base stealer (26-for-28) but by no means a burner, as Statcast puts his average sprint speed right around the 50th percentile throughout the league. He’s toward the bottom of the league in hard contact but toward the top of the league in terms of putting the ball in play.

Profar is a useful player as is, but the allure of his former prospect status and his youth surely hold appeal to other clubs. He’ll play all of next season at 28, and while it was close to a decade ago, Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, topping the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus alike. He’s had two shoulder surgeries since that time, however, which effectively cost him two full years of development. He was also quite arguably rushed to the Majors in the first place, debuting as a 19-year-old for a win-now Rangers club back in 2012.

There’s still an air of upside surrounding Profar because of that status and his age, even if his batted-ball profile isn’t a particularly encouraging one. The question for Profar may be one of whether to take a one-year deal in hopes of a cashing in on a strong 2021 season or taking a multi-year pact at an annual value that would look like a bargain if he does indeed elevate his game in 2021. Those decisions will be weighed by his camp as he continues to field offers, although the Royals have been surprisingly aggressive with players they identify as targets, which would seemingly bode well for Profar’s market.

NL West Notes: Taylor, Padres, Myers, Giants, Luciano

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The Dodgers may not have a key player available for today’s Game 6 against the Braves, as Chris Taylor suffered an ankle injury in last night’s game.  Taylor suffered the injury while chasing down a Freddie Freeman double in the eighth inning of Game 5, and Taylor managed to finish the inning before being lifted for a pinch-hitter in the ninth.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Taylor would undergo tests to determine the severity of the problem.

It hasn’t been a great postseason for Taylor, who has hit only .161/.257/.226 over 35 plate appearances during Los Angeles’ playoff run.  Still, Taylor’s regular-season performance and his versatility (he has been used as a second baseman and left fielder this October) make him a valuable roster asset, and it’s not like Taylor hasn’t had success in the playoffs — he was the 2017 NLCS MVP.  If Taylor can’t play in Game 6, the Dodgers could turn to Max Muncy or Enrique Hernandez to play second base.  The Dodgers would also be reduced to a three-man bench, as they used 15 of their 28 roster spots for the NLCS on pitchers.  [UPDATE: Taylor isn’t in the Game 6 lineup, but Roberts told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters that Taylor is available off the bench and is “moving around much better today.  It’s better than he expected.”]

More from around the NL West…

  • Several Padres-related topics are addressed by The Athletic’s Dennis Lin as part of a reader mailbag piece, with a particular focus on San Diego’s offseason plans.  Lin doesn’t think the Padres will make a play for Trevor Bauer this winter, and re-signing Jurickson Profar could be difficult since his asking price may be beyond the Friars’ comfort zone.  “The team isn’t interested in paying handsomely for a secondary option,” Lin writes, though Profar ended up being essentially an everyday player in 2020.
  • Of course, more regular playing time could emerge for a player like Profar if the Padres were to trade Wil Myers.  Lin figures San Diego will again look into trades for Myers, whose once-negligible trade value has been boosted by an outstanding 2020 season (.288/.353/.606 with 15 homers in 218 PA).  The $41MM that Myers is owed through the 2022 season may still make a trade hard to complete, though naturally the Padres wouldn’t mind keeping Myers if he keeps producing as he did this year.  At the outskirts of the Padres’ roster, Lin thinks Francisco Mejia, Joey Lucchesi and Trey Wingenter could also be trade candidates.
  • In a Giants mailbag, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle believes shortstop Marco Luciano is the Giants’ only truly “untouchable” prospect in trade talks.  This doesn’t mean that other highly-touted youngsters like Joey Bart or Heliot Ramos are anywhere near being available, but rather that San Francisco perceives Luciano as “the main driver for a winning era.”  Luciano emerged as a favorite of top-100 prospect lists (ranked 14th by Fangraphs, 17th by Baseball America, 29th by MLB.com) after a big breakout in last year’s Arizona Fall League, though the 19-year-old has only one official year of pro ball under his belt.  It remains to be seen if he’ll stay at shortstop or move to third base or the outfield in the future, but the 19-year-old Luciano’s batting potential has already drawn raves.

NL West Notes: Buster, Pagan, Padres, Barfield

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“I don’t see myself playing for any other team.  Not that going to another team would diminish what you did.  But personally, as a fan, I like to see guys stay with the same team.  So no, I wouldn’t want to play anywhere else,” longtime Giants catcher Buster Posey told The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (subscription required) about his baseball future.  Posey has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract, plus San Francisco has a $22MM club option ($3MM buyout) for the 2022 season that is e exercised — 2022 will be Posey’s age-35 season and his production has declined over the last two years as Posey has dealt with hip surgery and the subsequent recovery process.  That said, Posey was able to engage in a full offseason workout regiment this winter and was on a hitting tear during Spring Training, so there’s certainly some optimism that he could at least approach his old form.

With at least two years to go before any sort of decision needs to be made, it remains to be seen if Posey could seek out a contract with a new team, retire at the end of his current pact, or perhaps re-sign with the Giants.  This latter option could see Posey in a backup catcher/veteran mentor role at that stage of his career, particularly since San Francisco has one of the game’s best prospect (Joey Bart) in line as their catcher of the future.  Interestingly, a move to first base for Posey doesn’t seem be an option at the moment, as the Giants aren’t planning to use Posey as a first baseman this season, to the point that Posey hasn’t been taking any grounders at first this spring.

More from the NL West…

  • The Padres agreed to terms with 24 pre-arbitration players on contracts for the 2020 season, though Emilio Pagan’s deal was renewed after the newly-acquired reliever didn’t come to terms with the team, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Pagan will earn $591K in 2020 before becoming reaching arbitration eligibility next winter.  Pagan becomes the latest notable player to have his contract renewed, a process Jeff Todd explored in a recent MLBTR YouTube video entry.
  • As part of a reader mailbag piece, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell looked at how the Padres could manage their 26-man roster, such as the increasing possibility that the team will carry only four outfielders.  Cassavell figures that Wil Myers, Trent Grisham, and Tommy Pham have the starting jobs spoken for, while Franchy Cordero, Josh Naylor, and Abraham Almonte are competing for the fourth outfielder role.  This would leave room for San Diego to use its 26th roster spot on a utility player.  For added outfield depth, the likes of Greg Garcia, Francisco Mejia, or Jurickson Profar could all handle such a fill-in role if necessary.  That wouldn’t necessarily be how the Padres would like to optimize Profar, since the club was already intent on using him at primarily at second base, though since Cassavell notes that the Padres’ second base competition could stretch into the season, Profar will need somewhere to find playing time if Brian Dozier or Garcia earn more looks at the keystone.
  • Josh Barfield was promoted to the role of farm director for the Diamondbacks this offseason, as The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) looks at how the former big league infielder has quickly climbed the ladder during his five-plus years in Arizona’s front office.  Hired as a scout by former D’Backs general manager Dave Stewart in the 2014-15 offseason, Barfield has moved from assistant director of pro scouting to assistant farm director to his current position.  Barfield’s rising star hasn’t gone unnoticed around baseball, as current GM Mike Hazen told Buchanan that other teams have tried to hire Barfield away.  A future position as a “manager or GM might not be far behind” for the 37-year-old Barfield, Buchanan writes.
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