Quick Hits: Braves, Nakajima, Braun, Cespedes
On this date two years ago, the Mariners traded Bill Hall and a player to be named later to the Red Sox for Casey Kotchman. Here's a look at tonight's links..
- Braves GM Frank Wren has a knack for dealing for players with little trade buzz, and Angels infielder Maicer Izturis would fit that bill, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- According to a source familiar with the negotiations, shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima's issue with the Yankees offer was not the dollar figure but rather the length of the contract, according to a report from Sponichi (Japanese link). Nakajima wanted to become a free agent after one year while the club wanted standard control (six years) over him. Special thanks to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker for the translation.
- The Brewers will know before the start of spring training whether Ryan Braun will be in their opening day lineup, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel. Earlier this week, an official familiar with the appeals process told Haudricourt that he didn't like the slugger's chances of avoiding a 50-game suspension.
- There are no fewer than six teams, and perhaps even more, that are seriously in on Yoenis Cespedes, tweets Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel.
- Reliever David Aardsma has started throwing but will wait until he's further along in rehab before pursuing his next contract, agent Jamie Murphy told ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). Aardsma, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in July.
- Right-hander Peter Moylan has had discussions with a few teams, including the Braves, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. If all things are equal, Moylan would prefer a return to Atlanta.
Poll: Should The Angels Trade Trumbo Or Morales?
Albert Pujols is a great problem to have. The Angels created a serious logjam by signing the greatest hitter of the generation last month, as they now have about five players — Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu — competing for the two corner outfield spots and DH. That doesn't include Mike Trout, another outfielder and arguably the best prospect in baseball.
The Angels have indicated a willingness to keep Abreu because his left-handed bat helps balance out a righty heavy lineup, plus Wells and Hunter are unlikely to be traded given their salaries. Trumbo and Morales are first basemen like Pujols, and figure to be among the first to go if a trade is made.
Trumbo, 26 next week and with five years of team control left, finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2011. That was due to his gaudy home run (29) and RBI (87) totals though, not his batting average (.254) or OBP (.291). Power is becoming harder to find these days, and Trumbo certainly has plenty of it. We know the Angels are looking for bullpen help, and if yesterday's Anthony Rizzo trade is any indication, the Angels could get a young, cost controlled power arm for their bullpen by dealing their incumbent first baseman. I'm just speculating, but the Indians, Pirates, Brewers, and Rays make sense as trade partners.
Morales, on the other hand, is 28 with just two more years of team control left. His value is way down because he hasn't played in a year and a half due to leg and ankle injuries, though he's recently been cleared "ramp up" baseball activities during his rehab according to Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times. Prior to the injury, he'd hit .302/.353/.548 with 45 homers in 203 games from 2009-2010. The Halos would probably be selling low on Morales by trading him now, but they stand to save just about $3MM by moving him according to our projections. Again, those same four teams make sense as trade partners.
The Angels have indicated that Trumbo will work out at third base during Spring Training to see if he can get some at-bats there, but they might not have a better trade chip at their disposal (assuming Trout is off the table). It's worth noting that they just signed Jorge Cantu to a minor league deal to serve as depth at both corner infield spots, so they have some protection there.
Should the Angels trade Trumbo or Morales?
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Trade Morales. 35% (6,276)
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Trade Trumbo. 27% (4,831)
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Trade Both. 20% (3,545)
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Keep Both. 19% (3,381)
Total votes: 18,033
Extension Candidate: Howie Kendrick
Lack of batting titles aside, Howie Kendrick has developed into a solid homegrown star for the Halos. The 28-year-old is coming off the finest of his six Major League seasons (a career-high 18 homers and a .285/.338/.464 slash line) and with free agency just a season away, the Angels are looking to lock Kendrick up to a multiyear extension. The Angels certainly haven’t been hesitant to spend money this winter, so let’s examine how much it might cost them to sign Kendrick for the long term.
Kendrick turns 29 on July 12 and is entering his last year of arbitration eligibility, where MLBTR projects he will earn around $5.2MM for his 2012 contract. Rickie Weeks is a decent comparable; he was about to enter his age-28 season and his final round of arbitration last spring when the Brewers signed him to a four-year, $38.5MM extension that also included an $11.5MM vesting option for 2015 based on plate appearances. A similar vesting option might be preferred by the Angels, given Kendrick’s spotty injury history early in his career.
Weeks’ value is in his power and his ability to take walks, whereas Kendrick delivers a higher batting average powered by singles and doubles. Despite these different skillsets, Weeks (106 OPS+ through 642 career games) and Kendrick (105 OPS+ through 655 games) delivered almost the same offensive value through the same point in their careers.
Brian Roberts is another second baseman worth including in this comparison. Roberts had a 98 OPS+ through the first 665 games of his career but his offensive value was boosted by 136 career steals and the best single-season performance of the trio — a .314/.387/.515 campaign in 2005. Roberts avoided his second time through arbitration by signing a $4.2MM contract for 2007 and a month later inked a two-year, $14.3MM extension that covered both his final arb year and his first free-agent year. The Angels will surely want to extend Kendrick for more than just two years, so perhaps Roberts’ next extension (a four-year, $40MM deal that runs through 2013) could be the better model.
There are two other factors that weigh against Kendrick. Firstly, he has yet to enjoy the true superstar campaign that Roberts enjoyed in 2005 or Weeks had in 2010; while Kendrick certainly played well in 2011, his .338 BABIP suggests he enjoyed some good luck along the way. Kendrick’s career .329 OBP is also a red flag as to whether or not he can still develop the patience necessary to be a real force at the plate.
Secondly, Roberts and Weeks were the clear choice at second base for their respective clubs, whereas Kendrick has to contend with Jean Segura. Segura was rated as the 57th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America prior to the 2011 season and Minor League Ball’s John Sickels rated him the third-best prospect in the Angels’ system in his most recent rankings. Segura was moved to shortstop in 2011 and, according to Sickels, “adapted well…although I’ve talked with people who think he’ll still end up at 2B.” Should L.A. decide that Segura is best served at second, Kendrick could be moved to third base or left field, where his bat won’t play nearly as well. With all this said, Segura is still just 21 years old and hasn’t played higher than the high Class-A level. When and if the time Segura is ready for the Major Leagues, Kendrick’s extension might already be up.
Let’s project Kendrick for a four-year deal that covers his last arbitration season and his first four free agent seasons. Kendrick can receive $4.5MM in 2012 (slightly below Matt Swartz’s projection but teams usually get a bit of a discount on arb years in multiyear contracts), then $11MM in each of the following three seasons. It all adds up to a four-year, $37.5MM contract that LAA may consider augmenting with a club option year as well.
Would such an extension be worth it for Kendrick? An $11MM average annual value would roughly match what Kendrick would get on the open market next winter if he replicates his 2011 numbers this season. The free agent second base market is usually pretty thin, though the 2013 crop could also see Brandon Phillips and Kelly Johnson available (barring something unforeseen, Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler will obviously have their options exercised).
Kendrick hasn’t made his thoughts about an extension known, but one would think he would enjoy staying with a team that looks poised to contend for years to come. The four-year, $37.5MM offer could very well get it done and give Angels GM Jerry Dipoto yet another notable achievement in his first offseason running the team.
Photo courtesy of John Cordes/Icon SMI
AL West Notes: Dipoto, Hamilton, Mariners, Beane
Here's the latest news and notes out of the AL West…
- The Angels have reached their payroll limit and any further moves will have to come via the trade market, GM Jerry Dipoto tells Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. Dipoto says the club would need "a fairly compelling reason" to trade either Kendrys Morales or Mark Trumbo, but "there are scenarios you could envision."
- Dipoto tells Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times that the Angels' signing of infielder Jorge Cantu isn't a sign that the Halos have new concerns about the health of either Morales or Trumbo.
- Josh Hamilton's hard-nosed style of play (and subsequent injuries) will make it hard for the outfielder to earn top dollar either in free agency or from an extension with the Rangers, writes MLB.com's Lyle Spencer.
- The Mariners recently turned down inquiries about Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda from Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. This doesn't really represent a failed attempt for Anthopoulos since, as Rosenthal explains, the Toronto GM "routinely asks about the best players on every team. He almost always is told no."
- The Mariners have addressed most of their offseason wish list, notes MLB.com's Greg Johns, except their biggest need: an impact bat. Johns says there has been no indication that the biggest name the M's have been connected to this winter, Prince Fielder, has any interest in coming to Seattle.
- Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle finds it "astounding" that Billy Beane is remaining with the Athletics through this latest rebuilding period, but the A's GM isn't just looking ahead to the club's potential move to San Jose. "I'm too competitive to 'punt' anything," Beane said. "It's not part of my DNA. I've got an emotional investment in this team, and if we're playing in Oakland, then let's make the best of the situation. I don't leave for clear skies as soon as I start seeing the clouds. I keep thinking something will get better."
Angels Sign Jorge Cantu To Minor League Deal
The Angels have signed Jorge Cantu to a minor league contract, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported earlier today that the two sides were close to an agreement.
Cantu, who turns 30 on January 30, posted a .194/.232/.285 slash line in 155 plate appearances for the Padres last season before being released and finishing the year with the Rockies' Triple-A affiliate in Colorado Springs. Cantu has played mostly first and third base in his Major League career and is still capable of playing second on a limited basis.
Cantu isn't far removed from a very productive stint with the Marlins (a .283/.336/.462 line and 45 homers in 2008-09) and gives the Angels a more powerful option at third than incumbent Alberto Callaspo. Cantu could also provide backup for Albert Pujols at first, given that Mark Trumbo is still recovering from a stress fracture in his foot and Kendrys Morales' health is a question mark after missing the last season and a half.
DiGiovanna also reports that the Angels have signed Doug Deeds to a minor league contract. Deeds is still looking for his first cup of coffee in the Majors after posting a career .843 OPS in 3722 minor league plate appearances in the Twins, Cubs, D'Backs and Rangers organizations.
Angels, Jorge Cantu Nearing Deal
The Angels are nearing a deal with free agent infielder Jorge Cantu, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Wasserman Media Group represents the 29-year-old.
Cantu hit 28 homers in 2005 and 29 homers in 2008, but has struggled to produce at the plate since then. Cantu signed with the Padres for $850K about a year ago, but they designated him for assignment and the Rockies picked him up. He posted a .194/.232/.285 line in 155 plate appearances for San Diego, appearing at first, second and third base. Cantu, a right-handed hitter, has hit lefties and righties at a nearly identical clip over the course of his eight-year career.
West Links: Dodgers, Rangers, A’s, Mariners, Pujols
Time for some links from baseball's two West divisions…
- "I think so," said Dodgers GM Ned Colletti when asked if he was done with his free agent shopping, reports Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times (on Twitter). They re-signed Mike MacDougal to a one-year deal today, the tenth free agent they've signed this winter.
- The Rangers continue to have dialogue about long-term contract extensions with core players like Ian Kinsler and Derek Holland, reports Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas. "Our general feeling is to try not to negotiate during the year, but we've made exceptions," said GM Jon Daniels.
- Daniels also refused to comment about the Rangers' talks with Yu Darvish, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. "It's best for us to lay low," said the GM. "The less noise around that, the better."
- Athletics GM Billy Beane told MLB.com's Jane Lee that he has some interest in a few free agent outfielders, and he's also exploring trade possibilities (Twitter link). Bullpen help is another possibility, says Joe Stiglich of The Bay Area News Group (on Twitter).
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said they are "still keeping our ears open" regarding veteran starters even after signing Hisashi Iwakuma, reports Shannon Drayer of MyNorthwest.com (on Twitter).
- ESPN's Buster Olney says (on Twitter) that the union calculated the value of Albert Pujols' contract with the Angels at $246,841,811. Ronald Blum of the AP has a breakdown of the perks in the contract, such as a suite on road trips.
- Troy Renck of The Denver Post has the details of Wil Nieves' minor league contract with the Rockies (on Twitter). The backstop will earn $700K in the majors and $14K per month in the minors. He's also been invited to Spring Training.
Angels Open Extension Talks With Kendrick, Aybar
The Angels opened extension talks with the agents for second baseman Howie Kendrick and shortstop Erick Aybar, GM Jerry Dipoto told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times. Both infielders are entering their final year of arbitration, but Dipoto has interest in keeping them in Anaheim beyond 2012.
“At this point, it’s something we’ve begun to explore and will continue to explore,” Dipoto said. “There is no timetable, but certainly, it’s something we’re interested in pursuing.”
Kendrick, a 28-year-old Reynolds Sports Management client, posted a .285/.338/.464 line with a career-best 18 homers in 2011. MLBTR projects a $5.2MM salary for him in 2012. That's $500K more than Aybar, who comes in at $4.7MM in our projections. SFX represents the 27-year-old Aybar, who posted a .279/.322/.421 line with 30 stolen bases as the Angels' shortstop in 2011.
Angels Unlikely To Sign Ryan Madson
Angels GM Jerry Dipoto told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that he’s "very, very unlikely" to sign Ryan Madson or another closer. Despite rumors and speculation linking Los Angeles to Madson, Dipoto says the club has already made its most significant offseason additions.
"We're trying to add depth, and in a perfect world, we’d like to find another guy to join Jordan Walden, Scott Downs and LaTroy Hawkins to help with those last nine outs,” he said. “But closer has never been the real priority."
Madson posted a 2.37 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 48.8% ground ball rate in 60 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2011. The 31-year-old saved 32 games in his first full season as a closer. Last week 32% of 13,000 MLBTR readers said they expect Madson to sign with the Angels. The Reds were the runner-up with 18% of the vote.
Quick Hits: Fielder, Vazquez, Trumbo, Rockies
Links for Thursday night, starting with a pair of notes on the offseason's top remaining free agent…
- The Nationals appear to be a leading suitor for Prince Fielder, but first baseman Adam LaRoche told MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that he won’t hold grudges if he’s not a part of Washington’s plans for 2012. “Hopefully, I'll be a part of it. If not, that's life," he said.
- If the Mariners are serious about making Fielder a competitive offer without hamstringing the organization, they could propose a backloaded seven-year, $155MM deal that includes an opt-out after three years, Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner explains.
- ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick suggests the Marlins are convinced Javier Vazquez is retiring (Twitter link). Miami rounded out its rotation today, obtaining the unpredictable Carlos Zambrano for Chris Volstad.
- Angels infielder Mark Trumbo says the stress fracture in his right foot is taking longer than expected to heal and that his rehabilitation will likely extend to late February, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times.
- The Braves’ interest in Rockies outfielder Seth Smith has cooled, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. The Rays, who had interest in Smith earlier in the offseason, are not in the hunt any longer, Renck writes.
- The Rockies aren’t actively pursuing Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens, though they continue to monitor the market for starting pitching, according to Renck.
- The Mets continue to look for a shortstop to back up Ruben Tejada, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. They brought Omar Quintanilla in on a minor league deal this week, but the move doesn’t necessarily eliminate the need for shortstop depth. Jack Wilson and Ryan Theriot have been linked to the Mets this offseason.