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West Notes: Giants, Smoak, Trumbo, D’Backs

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There are two intra-divisional matchups between NL and AL West rivals slated for tonight.  The Rockies face the Diamondbacks at Chase Field while the Mariners host the Rangers.  Here are some tidbits from the western divisions…

  • "There is discussion in the [Giants'] executive offices as to how long they can stay with [Miguel] Tejada and Pat Burrell," reports Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Jose Reyes has been mentioned as a trade target for the Giants, though Brian Sabean denied his club's interest yesterday. 
  • Thanks to Justin Smoak's emergence, the Mariners seem to have gotten the best of the three recent Cliff Lee trade packages, writes Larry Stone of the Seattle Times.
  • If Mark Trumbo keeps hitting and Kendrys Morales is out of action for most of the season, Eric Denton of the LA Angels Insider blog notes that the Angels could face a tough choice this offseason.  Denton suggests the Halos could even non-tender Morales, but if they do choose to move the first baseman, surely you'd think the team could find a trade partner.
  • We know the Diamondbacks have an interest in UCLA prospect Gerrit Cole with the third pick of the upcoming amateur draft, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds a couple of other interesting nuggets about the right-hander.  Arizona also has the seventh overall pick, but Piecoro notes that since that pick is unprotected, the D'Backs "almost certainly couldn’t risk drafting him" at that spot if they pass on him at #3.  Cole is represented by Scott Boras and could be a difficult signing.
  • Cole was drafted 28th overall by the Yankees in the 2008 draft but he didn't sign.  Piecoro "got the sense from talking with other scouts and executives that there are still some people in the game harboring a grudge toward Cole" since Cole didn't let it be known that he wasn't interested in signing back in 2008.
  • MLB.com's Corey Brock profiles A.J. Hinch, the former D'Backs manager who is now the Padres' vice president of professional scouting.
  • Julio Borbon welcomes the center field competition of newly-signed Rangers prospect Leonys Martin, reports Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com.

How Much Will Jered Weaver Make Next Year?

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Jered Weaver's upcoming arbitration case won't be as groundbreaking as Tim Lincecum's, but Weaver should still continue to set arbitration records.  Let's see what's in store for the 28-year-old righty.

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The Impact Of Losing A Hearing

Weaver will be arbitration eligible for the third time after this season, and most consider him the first and second-time record holder with $4.365MM and $7.365MM salaries.  However, that $7.365MM figure was actually the Angels' submission, as Weaver and agent Scott Boras filed at $8.8MM and lost the February hearing.

Aside from setting Weaver back $1.435MM, losing the case might have minimal impact on his 2012 salary.  The focus should still be on Weaver's 2011 season and his career numbers, both of which should be better than they were at the hearing if the pitcher's first seven starts are any indication.  Scott Boras is not generally one to back down from an arbitration hearing, so another one is possible unless Weaver is opposed.

The Raise Argument

One agent explained the general strategy each side takes in an arbitration hearing:  "Owners always make the raise argument, whereas the union always concentrates on comparable players and numbers notwithstanding what “raise” a player is getting.  The teams have been somewhat successful with their raise arguments in some cases."

The raise argument for Weaver starts with Carlos Zambrano's $5.9MM increase in 2007.  Since Weaver is expected to have better career and platform numbers than Zambrano did, a bigger raise is appropriate – maybe $2MM more, putting him over $15MM.  There's also the current class factor – if John Danks and Matt Garza settle before Weaver, each side can try to spin those pitchers' raises into arguments about what Weaver should earn.

Boras could be compelled to shoot for the moon with Weaver, if for example he wins a Cy Young award.  Boras could eschew the Zambrano/Danks/Garza comparables, instead making the argument that there is no pitcher comparable to Weaver who went this far in arbitration going year to year.  That could open the door to A.J. Burnett/John Lackey comparisons, allowing Boras to argue for something around $16.5MM.  That's probably the ceiling.

The Extension Possibility

Surprisingly, one agent predicted Weaver will sign an extension with the Angels.  We haven't seen many high-profile Boras clients take that route one year away from a free agent payday, and the Angels aren't on the best of terms with Boras.  Plus, Weaver attended the February hearing, and there's no telling how that affected him.  On the other hand, Weaver is a California guy and the Angels have minimal commitments beyond Vernon Wells in 2013 and beyond.  In recent memory, the only Boras client who chose not to explore free agency with one year remaining was Ryan Madson.

In an email discussion, members of the MLBTR writing team pointed out that Weaver will turn 30 in October of 2012, meaning he will be older than C.C. Sabathia, Barry Zito, and Johan Santana were when they signed huge extensions.  Nonetheless, we all see $20MM+ per year as likely, even if the term only covers six free agent seasons.  The MLBTR writing team believes Weaver could land something like a six-year, $140-150MM deal on the open market after '12.  If Weaver were to sign an extension before the '12 season, I don't imagine much of a discount, though perhaps he'd give up his last arbitration year for $12MM or so instead of battling for every last dollar in that season.

The Bottom Line

When the 2012 season begins, Weaver's name could occupy all three spots in the starting pitcher arbitration record book (some wouldn't count Tim Lincecum's third-year salary, since he didn't go year to year).  Weaver will still be a bargain for the Angels next year even if his salary doubles and he lands around $15MM.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

2012 Contract Issues: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (2)

  • Starter Joel Pineiro will be the Angels' most significant free agent.  Though he's missed about a dozen starts in his Angels career due to injuries, he's also maintained much of his '09 success with a 3.73 ERA in 159 1/3 innings.  Pineiro might be able to repeat his two-year, $16MM deal on the open market depending on how the rest of this season goes.  He gives the Angels nice depth as their fourth starter.
  • The Angels will be done with Fernando Rodney, whose two-year, $11MM deal was questionable from the start.

Contract Options (2)

  • Scott Kazmir: $13.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Barring a shocking performance, Kazmir will become a free agent.
  • Bobby Abreu: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances in 2011.  Abreu needs only 308 more plate appearances, so three more months should do it.

Arbitration Eligible (7)

Weaver's arbitration case should be a big story in January and February of 2012, especially if his dominant 2011 season continues.  We'll have more on this topic later, but even after losing a hearing in February many agents think he'll be around $14-15MM for '12.

Morales hasn't played since breaking a bone in his leg almost a year ago.  His raise should be mild because of that.  Kendrick could jump up to $6MM, and raises for the others could put the group around $34MM if everyone is tendered a contract.  It is possible Mathis and Willits are cut loose, dropping the team's estimated arbitration eligible bill closer to $30MM.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Angels' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $79.117MM including Kazmir's buyout but not Abreu's.  Throw in at least $39MM more for Abreu and the arbitration eligibles, and you're around $118MM.  That's about $24MM shy of this year's payroll, so there is room to re-sign Pineiro while also considering a free agent or two to upgrade the left side of the infield.  If an infielder surplus is created, the team could shed a few million by trading someone.  They could also save on 2012 payroll by locking up Kendrick or even Weaver, if the righty is willing to buck the trend of top Scott Boras clients testing free agency.

Cafardo’s Latest: Ortiz, Red Sox, Martin, Angels

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In today's column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo wonders what the future holds for David Ortiz after his contract expires at the end of this season. An American League official says the Red Sox should be "looking at keeping his salary level around the same if his production maintains steady." Ortiz, who is earning $12MM in 2011, would like to retire with the Sox, and acknowledges that signing with a National League club is unlikely: "I would have to consider it. I don’t think people want me for that, because I’m a hitter." Here are a few of Cafardo's other notes:

  • In the short term, Marco Scutaro, who has been discussed internally by the Phillies, could be valuable to a team looking for a middle infielder. Down the line, the Sox could still have an excess of infielders – Cafardo says Jose Iglesias should be ready to be a full-time MLB shortstop in 2012, meaning Boston may not have enough room in its lineup for him, Jed Lowrie, and Kevin Youkilis. If I'm the Red Sox, I view that as a good problem to have, and address it if and when it comes to that.
  • A Dodgers official concedes that Russell Martin is "playing great" for the Yankees. "Better than he played for us," adds the official. However, he cautions that Martin tends to fade in the second half, which has to be of some concern for the Yanks. While Martin's career batting splits don't fully back up that assertion, the backstop did miss most of the second half in 2010 with a hip injury.
  • The Angels have been exploring potential trades involving their catchers since Spring Training. They'd likely prefer dealing Bobby Wilson to Jeff Mathis, and may be seeking a left-handed outfield bat in return.

Quick Hits: Minaya, Weaver, Danks, Zimmerman

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Emilio "Millito" Navarro, believed to be the oldest living professional baseball player at 105, passed away in Puerto Rico today. The former Negro Leaguer also played in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico during his career. Our condolences go out to his family.

  • Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer reports that former Mets GM Omar Minaya has spent the past two days on a "friendly visit" with Indians GM Chris Antonetti, president Mark Shapiro, and manager Manny Acta. Cleveland interviewed former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes during the offseason, and Hoynes says Antonetti has "made [it] no secret that he'd like to add the right person to the front office."
  • While researching the impending free agency of young stars, SI's Jon Heyman (via Twitter) learned that we can count on Jered Weaver and John Danks filing after 2012.
  • It's been a bad day for star third basemen, writes Justin Sablich of the New York Times.  The Giants lost Pablo Sandoval for 4-6 weeks with a broken bone in his right wrist and the Nationals announced that Ryan Zimmerman, who has been on the disabled list since April 12, will miss at least an another six weeks.  If both players return within those timeframes, it's unlikely that either squad will look for an out-of-house fill-in.
  • Matt Klaassen of Fangraphs questions the Blue Jays' wisdom in demoting Travis Snider to work on his hitting after just 99 plate appearances in 2011.

2012 Vesting Options Update

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It's the final day of the month, so let's check the status of the various vesting options around the league…

  • Bobby Abreu, Angels: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances. Abreu is more than a quarter of the way there already; he has 116 PA after today's game.
  • Rafael Furcal, Dodgers: $12MM option vests with 600 plate appearances. Furcal came to the plate 28 times before breaking his thumb. He's going to miss another three to five weeks, so he's unlikely to see the option vest.
  • Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM option vests with 190 innings pitched. Garland started the year on the disabed list and has thrown just 20 innings so far. He should still get there if he stays healthy.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: $17.5MM option vests with 55 games finished and if doctors declare him healthy at the end of the season. K-Rod has finished eight games so far, but you have to think the club will use him in a way to prevent the option from vesting.
  • Koji Uehara, Orioles: $4MM option vests with either 55 appearances or 25 games finished. Uehara has appeared in eight games and finished four, putting him on pace for 54 and 27, respectively.
  • Arthur Rhodes, Rangers: $4MM option vests with 62 appearances and if he's not on the disabled list at the end of the season. He's appeared in eight games so far, putting him on pace for 50. Injuries to the some of his bullpen mates could increase Rhodes' workload though.
  • Joakim Soria, Royals: $6MM option vests with 55 appearances. He's already appeared in 12 games and is on pace for 75.
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM option vests with 65 games; increases to $3.25MM with 70 games. Wheeler has appeared in just eight games so far, so he'll have to start seeing more time for the option to kick in.

Adam Wainwright's 2012 ($9MM) and 2013 ($12MM) options will not vest because he will finish the season on the disabled list. Aramis Ramirez's option depends on MVP Award finishes and whether or not he's traded, not plate appearances or another counting milestone.

Mark Buehrle is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season and although he doesn't have a traditional option in his contract, he gets an extra year at $15MM tacked onto his current deal if he's traded at some point this season. 

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Dead Money: Paying Players To Play Elsewhere

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Eating money in trades or by releasing players is far from an ideal business practice, but sometimes it's a necessary evil. The Mets believe they are better off paying Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo a combined $18MM not to be on their team this year, and released the two just last month. David Wharton of The Los Angeles Times wrote about the concept of "dead money" today, speaking to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, sports economist J.C. Bradbury, and Scott Boras.

With some help from Cot's Baseball Contracts, let's look at the teams that are paying players to be anywhere but on their roster this season…

This doesn't include money the Braves owe Kenshin Kawakami ($7.4MM) or the Yankees owe Kei Igawa ($4MM). Both Japanese imports remain in the organization, but they've since been banished to the minor leagues. It also doesn't include all the money the Mets famously owe Bobby Bonilla for the next two decades.

Yuniesky Betancourt is the only player collecting paychecks from three different big league teams at the moment, but Carlos Silva could join him if he's called up by the Yankees. Gary Matthews Jr. could also be in that mix if he catches on somewhere this summer.

AL West Notes: Barton, Angels, Wilhelmsen

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Happy birthday to Rangers manager Ron Washington, who turns 59 years old today.  Let's celebrate by taking a look at some items from Washington's division…

  • Daric Barton admits that he has been thinking about his multiyear contract negotiations with the Athletics, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  "It's always in the back of your mind," Barton said. "It's not something you like to think about, but realistically, it happens."  We heard about these negotiations last month, with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noting that Barton's walk-heavy production could make him a bargain for the A's if they choose to go to arbitration with the first baseman.
  • The Angels are integrating young players into their lineup while still remaining competitive in the AL West, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
  • Mike Trout is having a nice season at Double-A Arkansas, but ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill predicts Trout will only reach the majors in 2011 if the Angels want to give him a few token at-bats in September.  Churchill speculates that Trout might skip Triple-A altogether and potentially make the Angels out of Spring Training next year, or at least be in the majors by May 2012 (or after next year's Super Two cutoff date).
  • Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports profiles Mariners right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen, who made his improbable Major League debut this season after spending five years away from the sport.

Angels Designate Jason Bulger For Assignment

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The Angels designated right-hander Jason Bulger for assignment, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times (on Twitter). The Halos optioned Matt Palmer to Triple-A, and activated Joel Pineiro and Scott Downs from the disabled list in corresponding moves.

Bulger, 32, has a sparkling 0.96 ERA in 9 1/3 innings this year. However, he has walked more batters (10) than he has struck out (7). Opponents have hit just .167 on balls in play and Bulger's 7.54 FIP and 6.14 xFIP suggest his ERA should probably be 5-6 runs higher than it is.

Bulger has a 4.33 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 133 career innings, all but 10 of them with the Angels. The seven-year veteran has pitched in manager Mike Scioscia's bullpen every year since 2006.

Arbitration Records: Starting Pitchers

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Several arbitration records could fall in 2012.  Here's my best attempt at finding the current records for starting pitchers who went year-to-year.

  • First time: Dontrelle Willis – $4.35MM (2006).  If you count the $100K in award bonuses Jered Weaver earned last year, he's the record holder at $4.365MM.
  • Second time: Jered Weaver – $7.37MM (2011).  Weaver's agent Scott Boras actually aimed to push this bar up to $8.8MM, but he lost an arbitration hearing to the Angels.  There does not appear to be a challenger to this record in the upcoming offseason.
  • Third time: Carlos Zambrano – $12.4MM (2007).  Z's $5.9MM raise had precedent: the $6MM raises Kevin Millwood and Chan Ho Park received early in the decade.

Whatever you consider the first-time record, it'll probably fall unless Clayton Kershaw and David Price sign multiyear extensions.  If those two aces have their first-time salaries determined in the arbitration process, they'll probably both reach $5MM.

Weaver, who already has six wins and 49 strikeouts on the season, has a good chance of topping Zambrano's $5.9MM raise and setting a new standard for elite pitchers going to arbitration for a third time.  Based on projections, Weaver should be well ahead of where Zambrano was before his third arbitration year in everything aside from ERA (in which they could be almost dead even).  Boras could have a good case for a $7-8MM raise, taking Weaver to a $15MM salary in his final year before free agency.

Side note: if Weaver's salary gets to such dizzying heights, the rising tide will lift those below him like John Danks and Matt Garza.  If Weaver gets to $15MM before Danks' salary is determined, Danks' agent can use that to his client's benefit.

We haven't yet mentioned Tim Lincecum, who would have eclipsed Willis' record had he not signed a two-year deal.  Lincecum is untouchable, and if his 2012 salary is determined by the arbitration process it will easily top Weaver's and be an arbitration record for all non-free agent players, not just pitchers. 

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