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Dodgers Sign Tanner Scott

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Jan. 24: Scott’s deal also contains a conditional club option for the 2029 season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. That option, valued at $5MM plus incentives, would only be available if Scott suffers a “qualifying injury” and is not traded throughout the four-year term of his contract.

In essence, it’s likely a safety net for the Dodgers (and only the Dodgers) in the event of a major injury. Specifics regarding this option aren’t yet clear, though prior instances of conditional options such as this one typically revolve around UCL injuries. Scott does not have a no-trade clause, but he’d receive a $3MM assignment bonus if traded to another team, Ardaya adds.

Jan. 23: The Dodgers’ spending blitz formally continued Thursday, as they announced the signing of left-hander Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal. Scott, a client of the MVP Sports Group, reportedly receives a $20MM signing bonus on the contract, which contains $21MM of deferred money.

Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.

Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.

With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the agreement and the terms. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Robert Murray of FanSided added details about the signing bonus and deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw Still Interested In Reunion

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The Dodgers have added Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki to a rotation already expected to return Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Injured righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both in line to be ready for Opening Day as well. That’s six viable rotation arms, before even accounting for younger pitchers who’ve now been pushed into depth roles: Bobby Miller, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack and Ben Casparius among them.

Despite that stock of arms, the organization still seems open to and likely to re-sign lefty Clayton Kershaw. General manager Brandon Gomes said yesterday that the newcomers on the pitching staff haven’t altered the team’s interest in Kershaw (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Kershaw, 37 in March, is recovering surgery to repair a torn meniscus and a second surgery to address bone spurs and a ruptured plantar plate in his foot. He’s working through a throwing program but is not yet pitching off a mound, per Gomes.

In each of the past two offseasons, there’s been at least a bit of intrigue as to where the future Hall of Famer might sign. It was a two-team market in those instances, with Kershaw expected to either remain in L.A. or sign a short-term deal with the Rangers, who play within driving distance of his Texas home. After the Dodgers captured a World Series title last year, however, Kershaw declared himself a “Dodger for life.” He subsequently reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya not long after that he planned to be back with the Dodgers for an 18th season in 2025.

Given that a reunion is something of a fait accompli, it seems there’s no rush to get a contract finalized. Kershaw declined a player option back in November. The two parties are widely expected to work out a new arrangement. From the Dodgers’ vantage point, it’d be beneficial to hold off on formalizing anything until spring training has commenced. They’re already facing a 40-man roster crunch with the looming but not-yet-finalized deals with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates.

The Dodgers need to open one 40-man spot for that pair — they’re currently at 39 players — and re-signing Kershaw now would mean jettisoning a second 40-man player. If he signs after camp opens, though, the Dodgers will be able to accommodate his addition by placing an injured player on the 60-day IL. The Dodgers have a whopping five pitchers who are on the 40-man and recovering from major surgeries. Brusdar Graterol will miss the first half of the season following shoulder surgery. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and could miss the entire 2025 season. Each of River Ryan (Aug. 25), Kyle Hurt (July 30) and Emmet Sheehan (May 16) had Tommy John surgery last year. They’ll all very likely be placed on the 60-day IL at some point.

The aforementioned knee and foot injuries, paired with Kershaw’s rehab from Nov. 2023 shoulder surgery, combined to limit the three-time Cy Young winner to just 30 innings in 2024. He posted a 4.50 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate, showing strong command but uncharacteristically low swing-and-miss abilities. Kershaw’s fastball sat at a career-low 89.9 mph on average last season, and his slider and curveball each saw a dip in velo as well (particularly the latter).

There’s no telling the extent to which he can regain some of the lost velocity, but from 2019-23, Kershaw notched a 2.77 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate over 616 1/3 innings even while averaging just 90.7 mph on his heater. He doesn’t need to get his velocity back up to or even close to its 93-94 mph peak to have success. The Dodgers are in the top tier of luxury penalization yet again, so any dollars allocated to Kershaw will come with a 110% tax.

MLBTR Podcast: Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
  • What does parity mean? (5:25)
  • Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
  • How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
  • What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
  • How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
  • The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
  • The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Michael Kopech Has Begun Offseason Throwing Program

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January 22: Los Angeles general manager Brandon Gomes downplayed the situation this evening. Gomes said that Kopech is amidst his offseason throwing program and said he “(doesn’t) think there’s anything of concern at this point” with their potential closer (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

January 21: The Dodgers are seemingly on the verge of adding two high-leverage bullpen pieces. After agreeing to terms on a four-year deal with Tanner Scott over the weekend, Los Angeles reportedly has a tentative agreement in place to sign All-Star righty Kirby Yates.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who was first to report that the Dodgers and Yates were closing in on a deal, linked the expected addition to the health status of Michael Kopech. There hadn’t been any prior indication that Kopech was facing a potential injury absence. Nightengale reports that the hard-throwing righty has been battling forearm inflammation. He has not been diagnosed with any structural damage, though Nightengale indicates that the Dodgers will take a cautious approach early in the season.

Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Kopech pitched through what was seemingly a minor forearm issue during last fall’s World Series run. Acquired from the White Sox in a three-team deadline deal, Kopech had a brilliant first few months in Los Angeles. He fired 24 innings down the stretch and posted a 1.13 earned run average. He struck out 33% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on a fantastic 15.8% of his offerings.

Kopech’s playoff performance was a little more shaky. While he only allowed three runs in nine postseason innings, he issued seven free passes while striking out 10 batters. Kopech didn’t lose any life on his 98-99 MPH fastball, though, so that dip was probably more about small sample variance than a reflection that he was significantly hampered physically. His command has never been pristine.

For now, the forearm inflammation seems to be something worth monitoring rather than a huge concern. Nightengale suggests that Kopech could begin the season on the injured list, but no one from the team has publicly stated that’ll be the case. Even if he does miss a few weeks early in the year, the Dodgers have plenty of talent to weather his absence.

The Dodgers could have four or five potential closers. Scott closed for the Marlins for a few seasons before moving into a setup capacity with the Padres after a deadline trade. Evan Phillips had been L.A.’s primary closer for over a year before the Kopech acquisition. Phillips battled shoulder issues late in the season and wasn’t able to go in the World Series. The Dodgers brought back high-leverage arm Blake Treinen on a two-year contract early in the offseason. If they finalize the Yates deal, he could be the favorite for the ninth after saving 33 games for the Rangers. Skipper Dave Roberts will have plenty of high-octane arms he can juggle even if Kopech begins the year on the shelf.

Dodgers Sign Roki Sasaki

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Jan. 22: The Dodgers have formally announced Sasaki’s signing. Baseball America, unsurprisingly, ranked Sasaki as the new No. 1 prospect in baseball this morning.

Jan. 17: The Dodgers have landed another star out of Japan. Roki Sasaki announced on Friday evening that he’s signing with Los Angeles. The Wasserman client will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which can be finalized at any point until the evening of January 23.

As an international amateur, Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract with a hard-capped signing bonus. He won’t immediately occupy a 40-man roster spot, though the team will certainly select him onto the MLB roster by Opening Day. In the end, it’s a fairly unsurprising result, though other outcomes seemed somewhat possible at times. The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and though the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.

Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.

That performance would have made him one of the top free agents of this or any offseason, which normally would have lined him up for a massive payday. However, Sasaki seemed determined to start his major league career as soon as possible, without much regard for money.

If he had waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional under MLB rules, and thus able to sign for any amount the market would bear. That was the route taken by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who secured a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers last offseason.

But Sasaki is making the move now, having just turned 23 years old, meaning he is considered an amateur and thus subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under that system, each team gets a set amount to spend on international amateurs annually. This year, each team gets between $5-8MM, a paltry amount compared to what Yamamoto secured. That at least made it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since the big-spending clubs couldn’t outmuscle the smaller clubs like with many other free agents.

However, despite that theoretical even playing field, there were still many good reasons to expect the Dodgers to emerge victorious. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn’t reveal much about the player’s preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which is often appealing for players coming over from Asia simply due to the relative proximity. They have a strong track record of on-field success, having made the playoffs in each year going back to 2013 now and having just won the World Series a few months ago. They also roster a couple of other Japanese stars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

It wasn’t known how much Sasaki would weigh those factors compared to others. Wolfe pushed back on the notion that Sasaki cared about the presence of other Japanese players. He also suggested last month that Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, on account of some friction with the media during his time in Japan.

There were some arguments to possibly consider scenarios where he would prefer to go elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers and it was reported that Sasaki has a strong relationship with current Padre Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, potentially giving them the ability to lower Sasaki’s access to the media. The fact that they are the only MLB team in Canada also theoretically opened up more endorsement opportunities from Japanese companies, as opposed to sharing the L.A. market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also had a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.

But despite any short-term drama that played out this offseason, the most obvious thing has happened. Sasaki has joined a team that is already loaded with stars like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games and now they are adding another hugely talented player into the mix.

Adding Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster but it’s also massive from a financial point of view. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to make the league minimum this year and until he qualifies for arbitration or signs an extension. That’s a massive thing for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe big sums of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and plenty of others.

It also gives them an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, at least in terms of pure talent. Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. It’s a near inevitability that Clayton Kershaw will eventually re-sign. Even with each of Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan set to miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers’ rotation should run eight or nine names deep. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and formerly touted rookie Bobby Miller are all on hand as depth starters.

It’s a staggering amount of talent for one team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year in spite of their playoff rotation. This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.

Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 frames across 18 appearances a year ago. Sasaki had a pair of injuries in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.

The Dodgers will happily take the tradeoff of some IL stints for rate dominance. Los Angeles doesn’t place much value on bulk innings. They’re content to embrace injury risk as they chase pitchers with top-of-the-rotation upside. That’s enabled in part by their resources, of course, though money isn’t a factor for Sasaki.

Every team would have been thrilled to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers will also owe a $1.3MM posting fee to the pitcher’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. The posting fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. As Sasaki’s bonus was capped at a few million dollars, the Marines were limited to 20% of whatever he received.

It comes out to a $7.8MM investment to land Japan’s most talented pitcher. The Dodgers have signed arguably NPB’s best pitcher in consecutive offseasons. They’ll have Sasaki for the standard six-year window of team control associated with the promotion of any prospect. He’ll be slated for salaries around the league minimum for the next three seasons. He’d then go through three years of the arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding regarding a contract extension to circumvent the bonus pool limits. While there’s no official cutoff for when the Dodgers could look to extend Sasaki, they cannot have any sort of unofficial long-term deal in the works right now.

The Dodgers opened this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. They had $5.1462MM to spend on international amateurs on January 15. The Dodgers allowed a few of their verbal agreements with teenage prospects to lapse to keep open funds for Sasaki. They added to their pool by dealing minor league outfielder Dylan Campbell to the Phillies and sending outfield prospect Arnaldo Lantigua to Cincinnati tonight. Their precise bonus allotment isn’t known, but Sasaki will take the vast majority of the pool. That’s a trade every team would happily make for a potential plug-and-play ace.

It’s a brutal blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were out of the mix. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face an even tougher challenge in the NL West. The Blue Jays finish as the runner-up on yet another marquee free agent talent. Toronto has lost out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Sasaki (among others) within the past two offseasons alone.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Lou Trivino Works Out For Teams

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Free-agent righty Lou Trivino threw a bullpen session for interested clubs down in Florida yesterday, reports SI’s Pat Ragazzo. The incumbent Yankees were on hand to take a look, as were the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Reds, Royals and Guardians, per the report. That’s not an exhaustive list of the teams in attendance, but it speaks to a decent level of intrigue surrounding the 33-year-old Trivino, who’s on the mend from a series of arm injuries that have kept him off a big league mound since 2022.

Trivino was traded from the A’s to the Yankees alongside Frankie Montas back in 2022 and posted a pristine 1.66 ERA in 21 2/3 frames following his cross-country move to the Bronx. His 2023 season was torpedoed by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, however, and lingering elbow inflammation as well as a shoulder issue prevented Trivino from returning to the majors in 2024. He pitched 11 minor league frames as part of a rehab assignment before that shoulder issue popped up and shut him down.

At his best, Trivino throws hard, misses bats and picks up grounders at a well above-average rate. He averaged just shy of 96 mph on his four-seamer and sinker alike in the three seasons prior to his elbow troubles, and Trivino has whiffed nearly one-quarter of his MLB opponents while keeping 47.4% of batted balls against him on the ground. His command has never been great, evidenced by a 10.6% walk rate in the majors, but he was a key late-inning arm both in Oakland and more briefly in New York. He sports a career 3.86 ERA with 37 saves and 52 holds.

Ragazzo notes that Trivino was hitting 94 mph on his sinker in the workout for clubs. Obviously, that’s a ways shy of peak velocity, but spring training hasn’t even begun yet. It stands to reason that with a ramp-up period, Trivino could gain a bit more of that velocity back. A return to his 97 mph averages from early in his career — or even the 95.8 mph he averaged in ’22 — isn’t a certainty, but it’s at least relatively encouraging that he’s already within reach of his pre-injury velocity before even getting to work with a team.

Any of the clubs mentioned could make sense as a fit for Trivino, though if he’s looking for a clear path back to the big leagues, the Dodgers’ veteran-laden bullpen probably doesn’t offer that. (That said, L.A. has a knack for maximizing pitcher performance, which surely does hold appeal to a rehabbing veteran like Trivino.) The Yankees traded for Trivino once and re-signed him to a major league deal after non-tendering him post-2023. They clearly like him, though they only have three optionable relievers at the moment: Jake Cousins, Ian Hamilton and Fernando Cruz. The former two had strong seasons in the Bronx in 2024, while the latter was just acquired in the trade of Jose Trevino.

Dodgers Gauging Trade Interest In Ryan Brasier

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It’s been an eventful week in the Dodgers’  bullpen. Los Angeles agreed to sign top free-agent reliever Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM guarantee over the weekend and is working to finalize a deal with fellow late-inning weapon Kirby Yates. At the same time, they’ve learned of some forearm inflammation for top setup man Michael Kopech (which may or may not have influenced the decisions to more aggressively pursue Scott and Yates).

There could be more activity on the horizon. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that with the likely need to open a 40-man spot — they’re currently at 39 players, with Scott and Yates yet to be announced — the Dodgers have been shopping around some of their “surplus” of big league players who could be squeezed out by the recent additions. Among the names being discussed with other clubs, per the report, is righty reliever Ryan Brasier.

Brasier, 37, signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers last winter. He’s guaranteed a total of $9MM over the term of the contract and is owed $4.5MM in 2025. The veteran righty has enjoyed a resurgence in L.A. after hitting a rough patch in his final couple years with the Red Sox. Brasier pitched to a solid 3.54 earned run average in ’24, albeit in a sample of just 28 innings. A calf strain shelved Brasier for more than three months this past year, though he finished the season healthy. Still, between that performance and a big second-half showing in L.A. the prior season, Brasier boasts a 1.89 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in 66 2/3 frames as a Dodger.

Strong as that performance has been, Brasier could find himself the odd man out. The Dodgers are adding Scott and likely Yates to a late-inning group that already includes Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and 2024 breakout lefty Anthony Banda. Brasier was already used primarily in low-  and medium-leverage spots last year anyhow. Scott and Yates (again, if finalized) would add two premium high-leverage arms to the fold. The Dodgers could be without Kopech early in the season, but they’re still expecting to get more innings from him than they did last year, since he was a deadline pickup who didn’t join the club until late July. They’ll also hope for a healthier year for Treinen, who was limited to 46 2/3 innings in 2024.

Beyond the wealth of experienced names pushing Brasier to an ostensible low-leverage role, the Dodgers’ bullpen simply lacks flexibility as currently constructed. Vesia is the only Dodgers reliever who can be optioned, but he’s coming off a 1.76 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate over 66 1/3 innings. He’s not going to be sent to Triple-A anytime soon. The Dodgers also seem likely to deploy a six-man rotation early on, leaving only seven spots in the bullpen. Simply adding Yates into the mix would seemingly necessitate a trade of a reliever, and it’s defensible if Brasier is viewed as the odd man out.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, moving Brasier would save more than $4.5MM anyhow. His contract contains $2MM per season worth of incentives based on appearances, and they’re of course in the top tier of luxury penalization. Brasier’s $4.5MM annual value on his contract comes with a 110% tax; he’s costing the Dodgers $9.45MM for the upcoming season. Dealing him won’t reduce their penalty level at all, but trimming nearly $10MM off the 2025 budget and opening up further roster space hold obvious appeal.

The looming additions of Scott and Yates to the roster aren’t the only moves on the Dodgers’ horizon. At some point, they’ll formally bring Clayton Kershaw back into the mix. The two parties could theoretically wait until camp opens so Kershaw’s deal can be accommodated by transferring a pitcher to the 60-day injured list, but there’d still be active roster considerations with that move. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are all in the rotation mix at present. Scott, Yates, Phillips, Kopech, Treinen, Vesia and Banda are in the ’pen.

That’s 13 pitchers even without Kershaw. Injuries could sort that out organically, with Kopech an obvious possibility to miss some time early in the year. Having such depth is never bad for a club, but the potential for additional names to be squeezed off the 40-man roster is readily apparent. Among the players on the 40-man roster but ticketed for Triple-A are pitchers Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Michael Grove, Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski and Nick Frasso.

Dodgers, Kirby Yates Reportedly Reach “Tentative” Agreement

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10:55am: There’s nothing official in place yet, per reports from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (among others). Harris writes that the two parties are “working toward a deal,” while The Athletic indicates “serious” negotiations are taking place. There could simply be semantics at play. Nightengale’s initial report plainly stated that a physical still needs to take place, so there’s never been firm indication of a final deal yet. A physical for a 38-year-old pitcher with Yates’ injury history isn’t necessarily a layup, but that seems to be the stage they’ve reached. If all goes well, a deal would be announced in the next few days.

9:52am: The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract is pending completion of a physical. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, would be the second high-profile bullpen addition for the Dodgers in recent days; they also inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the physical goes well and the deal is indeed finalized, L.A. will need to make a corresponding transaction to remove someone from the 40-man roster.

It’s the latest strike in an offseason spending blitz that has seen the Dodgers make free agent plays for Scott, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees’ threepeat back in 1998-2000.

Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely remade over the past six months, beginning with the deadline acquisition of Michael Kopech. In late July, closer Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of that Kopech acquisition, and much of the bullpen was in a state of flux. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen from the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. A late-inning contingent of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is very arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.

It should be noted, however, that Nightengale suggests the Dodgers recently learned of an injury to Kopech that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details on said injury have yet to surface, but that revelation likely played a part in the team’s decision to close an agreement with Yates.

Yates himself isn’t without risk. He’ll turn 38 in March, and he pitched all of 11 major league innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned with a healthy but shaky season for the 2023 Braves, logging a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking nearly 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, firing 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a gargantuan 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still noticeably higher than the 8.2% league average but a substantial improvement over his 2023 campaign nonetheless.

Yates ranked second among all free agent relievers in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He paced all qualified free agent relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging-strike rate (15.2%). No qualified free agent reliever missed bats within the strike zone as much as Yates; his opponents’ 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sat at the top of this year’s free agent class and sat as the third-best mark in all of baseball for pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Josh Hader and Mason Miller.

Dating back to his breakout with the 2018 Padres, Yates has consistently been outstanding when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s pitched 257 innings in that time and boasts a 2.21 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaned on a lethal four-seamer and splitter pairing that’s helped him miss bats in droves while piling up 93 saves and 30 holds in 262 appearances on the mound.

The Dodgers are already well into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax ledger to sit at a staggering $371MM; the addition of Yates could push their CBT number close to $400MM. The Dodgers were already set to owe around $108MM in overage taxes before the signing of Yates; presuming he gets an eight-figure salary, they’ll very likely owe more than $120MM in taxes alone.

Dodgers Had Interest In Kirby Yates Prior To Tanner Scott Deal

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The Dodgers made a big addition to their bullpen this weekend, agreeing to a deal with the winter’s top free agent reliever, left-hander Tanner Scott. Prior to that agreement, the Dodgers had some discussions with right-hander Kirby Yates, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times.

The interest is perfectly understandable, as Yates is coming off an excellent season. He tossed 61 2/3 innings for the Rangers last year, allowing only 1.17 earned runs per nine. His 11.8% walk rate was fairly high but also not abnormal for him. He worked around those free passes by striking out 35.9% of batters he faced and also getting grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He took over the closer’s role in Texas, earning 33 saves on the year.

Despite that excellent season, the righty’s market will be limited. He is turning 38 years old in March, which will naturally put a cap on how long teams are willing to invest in him. He’s also had plenty of injury issues over the years. He hardly pitched at all from 2020 to 2022, with Tommy John surgery being the main reason. He returned to the mound in 2023 and had decent but not outstanding results, with a 3.28 ERA that year. His 31.5% strikeout rate was quite strong but a few ticks below his 2024 level, while the walks were even higher, finishing at 14.6%.

Atlanta could have kept him around for 2024 via a $5.75MM club option but opted for a $1.25MM buyout instead. That led to Yates getting a one-year, $4.5MM deal from the Rangers, which worked out great. His excellent season will definitely get him a bump from that level, but some hesitation from clubs is still justifiable.

The Dodgers have generally been willing to invest in talented pitchers, despite injury concerns. That hasn’t always worked out, as they have sometimes been heavily snakebit over the years, though they just hoisted the World Series trophy last year.

The club presumably still has some interest in Yates but the Scott deal might also lower their urgency. It’s not as though the bullpen was a glaring weakness to begin with. The club’s relief corps had a combined ERA of 3.53 last year, a mark bested by only three other teams in the majors. They lost Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly to free agency at season’s end but re-signed Treinen last month and now have Scott in the fold as well.

RosterResource currently projects the club to run a six-man rotation next year, which is certainly a possibility. In 2024, they avoided using Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a five-day schedule in order to help him make the transition from Japan, where starters normally throw once a week. In 2025, they will be folding in Roki Sasaki, who is younger than Yamamoto and has had more injuries in his career. They will also be getting guys like Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May back from lengthy surgery absences. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow haven’t been workhorses in their career either. Clayton Kershaw will presumably re-sign with the club and be back in the mix, though he’s had his own share of injury concerns lately. In short, having six starters and lowering everyone’s workload would be sensible.

Running a six-man rotation would normally limit a club to a seven-man bullpen, since clubs aren’t allowed to roster more than 13 pitchers. Ohtani’s status as a two-way player means he can effectively be counted as a position player, allowing the Dodgers to have both a six-man rotation and eight-man bullpen at times, though not at the start of the season. Ohtani missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery and then also required arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder just a few months ago. Last month, manager Dave Roberts said it’s unlikely Ohtani will be in the club’s rotation to start the year, so they may be capped at 13 pitchers and a seven-man bullpen until Ohtani can get back on the mound.

Scott and Treinen will be in two spots, with the Dodgers also having Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda and Ryan Brasier. That makes for seven arms that seem fairly locked in. Vesia is the only one that can be optioned and he just posted a 1.76 ERA last year. It’s still possible that the club signs Yates anyway then just waits to see if everyone stays healthy through the spring. If that comes to pass, they could then cut someone at the end of camp. But it’s also possible they will just pass on Yates and see how the season plays out with this group.

As mentioned, the club had a strong bullpen last year and has now added Scott to it. RosterResource also projects next year’s payroll at $369MM and their competitive balance tax number at $371MM, with both of those numbers close to $40MM beyond last year’s figures. Given how aggressive they’ve been, no one would be surprised if they kept adding, but they also might feel like they’ve done enough at this point.

If Yates needs to look elsewhere for his next contract, he should have plenty of options. He’s been connected to the Cubs, Tigers, Rangers and Diamondbacks this offseason and presumably has interest from other clubs as well. Teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox and Atlanta had some interest in Scott and could be looking elsewhere for relief help after he landed with the Dodgers. The relief market has been heating up more broadly of late, with Scott, A.J. Minter, Jose Leclerc, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Kittredge agreeing to deals in recent weeks.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Yates for a strong one-year deal with a $14MM guarantee. That was a reflection of his aforementioned excellent season but also his yellow flags. The offseason has been kind to some relievers, with Scott, Minter and Clay Holmes surpassing projections, though the Mets plan to stretch out Holmes as a starter. Hoffman came in below his prediction but that seems to have been a result of some concerns about his shoulder in his physical. Treinen got a two-year deal despite the fact that he’ll turn 37 this year and has a lengthy injury history. All those factors should lead to a healthy deal for Yates, regardless of which team he ultimately lands with.

Poll: Would You Trade The 2027 MLB Season For A Salary Cap?

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The past weekend seemed like something of a tipping point for fans of teams other than the Dodgers.  The Dodgers were able to land Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki on Friday for a mere $6.5MM bonus, given the restrictions on signing international players under the age of 25.  While Sasaki will enter the arbitration system for the final three years of team control from 2028-30, he still comes with incredible surplus value.

Then on Sunday, the Dodgers put an exclamation point on their weekend by signing the best reliever on the market, Tanner Scott, to the fifth-largest free agent contract ever at the position.  And yes, there was significant deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that’s a poll topic for another day.

We’ll hear from Sasaki soon enough, but surely the Dodgers’ previous monstrous offseason signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto helped lure him to Los Angeles.  Since the 2023 season ended, the club has also added Teoscar Hernandez (twice), Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and others, while brokering extensions for Glasnow, Will Smith, and trade pickup Tommy Edman.

It’s not easy to buy an MLB dynasty.  Others have tried, but the sport hasn’t seen back-to-back World Series winners since the 1998-2000 Yankees accomplished a three-peat.  Now, with a 12-team playoff format, that might be even harder for the Dodgers to pull off.

Most MLB teams don’t open their books to the public, so we don’t know how many clubs would be profitable at the $370MM payroll the Dodgers currently sport.  It’s fair to assume small market clubs could not support that type of payroll, even though some of them receive in excess of $150MM between national revenues and revenue sharing each year.

Some might argue that because of the nature of the MLB playoffs, the sport is already in good shape in terms of parity.  But because the Dodgers bring in so much revenue (particularly through their TV deal), they have advantages in acquiring players that many markets simply cannot match.  Maybe the Dodgers can’t guarantee a string of championships, but they haven’t won fewer than 98 regular season games since 2018 (extrapolating the pandemic season).  Their payroll is obviously part of their success.

The drumbeat from fans, at least on social media, seems to be getting louder for a salary cap.  It’s hard to argue: if all 30 teams were capped at spending, say, $200MM on player payroll, the regular season playing field would be leveled significantly.  There would be star free agents the Dodgers, Mets, and other big markets simply could not sign.  The salary cap would be tied to league revenue, and would rise accordingly.  I’m not convinced a salary cap (and floor) is the only way to improve parity, but it’s the most obvious one.

MLB owners have wanted a salary cap for a long time.  You may recall that was the reason for the 1994 strike, which cost us the World Series that year.  The players did not give in to that demand, though they did allow for the first luxury tax in subsequent years.

The thing about a salary cap is that it would almost certainly increase parity, but as the name states, it would also cap player earnings short of what the free market allows.  The expectation is that a salary cap would reduce the total amount of money earned by players, although commissioner Rob Manfred might argue that point.  That’s why MLB is not an unbiased source when they talk about how a salary cap is needed for competitive balance.

Baseball has always had the strongest union in sports, almost entirely because of one man: Marvin Miller.  Miller essentially created the MLBPA in 1966.  He ran it until 1982 and deserves credit for the advent of arbitration and free agency in MLB.  He also rallied players to go on strike or endure lockouts to ensure they only made forward progress, and did not accept a salary cap or even a luxury tax.

While the MLBPA has ceded ground since Miller retired, the sport still does not have a salary cap.  Baseball was able to avoid work stoppages since the ’94 strike, until owners locked out the players after the 2021 CBA expired in December.  Though negotiations often seemed perilous, ultimately a new five-year agreement was reached in March of 2022 and no games were lost.  The two sides seemed enough at odds that many observers wondered if we’ll simply now get a lockout every five years.

In the wake of the most recent CBA and given turmoil with television rights, MLB put together an “economic reform committee.”  The current CBA expires on December 1st, 2026.  It’s not hard to picture owners banding together for their strongest salary cap push since Bud Selig’s in ’94.  Assuming the MLBPA has enough solidarity under Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer to match its legacy, it follows that players might not give in, and some or even all of the 2027 season could be cancelled.

That leaves me with two questions for tonight’s poll.  (I apologize for my lack of clarity in the initial version of this poll: assume a salary cap comes with a floor).

 

And then the next question:

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