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Dave Roberts Suggests Shohei Ohtani Will Return To Pitching In May

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Shohei Ohtani spoke with reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) at the Dodgers FanFest event today, and provided something of an update on when he might make his return to a big league mound.  Ohtani had a UCL-related surgery in September 2023 that kept him from pitching in 2024, and his recovery hit another snag when he had arthroscopic surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder following the World Series.  Through he described the latter procedure as “complicated,” Ohtani said his rehab has been “pretty smooth,” with everything proceeding “on schedule.”

A clearer timeline will emerge once Ohtani starts throwing bullpen sessions during Spring Training.  When asked if Ohtani could return to pitching in May, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said that fluid projection “sounds about right.”  A May return would mark roughly 21 months in between Major League pitches for Ohtani, whose last game as a pitcher came on August 23, 2023 when he was still a member of the Angels.

There hasn’t been any suggestion that Ohtani’s pitching rehab will interfere with his prep work as a hitter, so Ohtani is expected to take his usual place as the Dodgers’ designated hitter while he completes the final ramp-up to his debut in the L.A. rotation.  Trying to manage both at the same time will naturally present a challenge for Ohtani, yet it is nothing he hasn’t already faced in his unique career as a two-way star.  Ohtani didn’t pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and he pitched only 1 2/3 innings in 2020 due to a flexor strain in his right elbow.

Needless to say, the Dodgers will be as careful as possible in managing Ohtani’s rehab, as the worst-case scenario would be a setback on the pitching side that also requires Ohtani to miss time in the lineup.  While more will be known once Ohtani actually begins his bullpen workouts, holding him back until May seems like a fair hedge for now, as it will give both the pitcher and the team plenty of time to evaluate the final stages of his UCL and shoulder procedures.

It is already expected that Los Angeles will deploy a six-man rotation in 2025, to accommodate not just Ohtani but several other pitchers returning from significant injuries.  A six-man rotation also comes closer to the once-weekly pitching schedule observed by NPB teams, so this could help Yoshinobu Yamamoto and now Roki Sasaki better adjust to pitching in the majors.  The Dodgers have been loading up on both starting and relief pitching to have as much depth as possible, giving the team an embarrassment of riches if everyone is healthy.

The full complement of rotation candidates includes Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin, plus Clayton Kershaw is expected to re-sign with L.A. at some point.  Bobby Miller, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack and Ben Casparius are also on hand as further depth options in the minors.  If this wasn’t enough, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates were both signed to bolster the already-strong bullpen.

If it didn’t seem like Ohtani could do any more following his 50-50 season (or officially, a 54-59 season) and a World Series championship in 2024, returning to his old form as a pitcher would be a suitably amazing encore.  Ohtani has a 3.01 ERA over 481 2/3 career innings as a starter in the big leagues, as well as a 31.2% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate.

Dodgers Designate Ryan Brasier For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they’ve designated Ryan Brasier for assignment. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for the signing of Kirby Yates to a $13MM free agent deal. Los Angeles still has five days to explore trade possibilities before they need to place Brasier on waivers. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so there’ll be official resolution on the DFA within a week.

It’s a moderate surprise to see Brasier cut loose. He’s a solid veteran reliever who signed a two-year free agent deal last winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Dodgers were shopping the righty, though, suggesting he was the odd man out of Dave Roberts’ bullpen. While the DFA confirms that Brasier will not be back in Los Angeles, they have a few more days to try to line up a deal.

Brasier broke out with the Red Sox a few seasons ago. He fell on hard times later in his Boston tenure and was designated for assignment early in 2023. A minor league deal with the Dodgers paid huge dividends, as Brasier fired 38 2/3 innings of 0.70 ERA ball in the second half. He returned to Los Angeles on a two-year, $9MM pact.

The 37-year-old Brasier was never going to replicate his late-season ’23 numbers. He had another decent year when healthy, working to a 3.54 ERA with a league average 22.7% strikeout percentage. Brasier kept his walk rate to a tidy 4.5% clip, in large part because he got opponents to chase 40% of pitches off the plate.

Health was the biggest caveat. Brasier suffered a significant strain of his right calf in late April. He was shelved into the middle of August and limited to 28 innings on the season. He had an excellent second half but was nevertheless relegated to low-leverage appearances during the World Series run. Brasier allowed five runs with seven strikeouts and three walks across nine playoff innings.

The DFA is less a reflection of Brasier of “losing” his job and much more about L.A.’s bullpen depth. They added Tanner Scott and Yates after re-signing Blake Treinen. They join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia as bullpen locks. The Dodgers are going to run a six-man rotation, meaning they can only devote seven roster spots to relievers.

They could go back to an eight-man bullpen once Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation, since Ohtani doesn’t count against their 13-pitcher limit as a two-way player. They’re not going to push Ohtani’s elbow rehab merely to get another bullpen spot, so there’s probably only one available if all their relievers are healthy coming out of camp. Anthony Banda is out of options and seems likely to grab the final relief job.

Los Angeles owes Brasier $4.5MM for the coming season. They’ll surely try to find a taker for at least part of that salary in trade. They’d also save 110% in taxes for any salary they could offload. If they can’t line up a trade, they’ll put Brasier on waivers. Any claiming team would need to take his full salary, which is unlikely. He’d probably clear waivers and be available as a free agent for the league minimum, leaving the Dodgers on the hook for the rest of the money.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the Dodgers had DFA Brasier.

Max Scherzer Hosts Workout For Several Teams

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It’s been a relatively quiet offseason with regard to chatter on future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young winner was limited to nine starts of 3.95 ERA ball for the Rangers in 2024. He missed time early in the year while recovering from offseason back surgery and was also sidelined by a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring. It’s a length list of issues, particularly for a pitcher who turned 40 last summer.

Still, Scherzer has been preparing to pitch in 2025 and recently held a workout for scouts, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo reported recently that the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox and Cubs were among those who were represented at the showcase. (That’s not necessarily an exhaustive list of teams.)

The Blue Jays have been the team most prominently linked to Scherzer thus far in the offseason, and Feinsand indeed suggests that Toronto has been the most serious suitor for Scherzer. Ragazzo adds that the Mets have “some level of interest” in bringing Scherzer back on a one-year deal. Time will tell whether the right-hander’s recent showcase for scouts drums up any new bidders, but Feinsand quotes one showcase attendee who suggested that Scherzer looked good — not up to his prior Cy Young standards but still “good enough to be an effective starter.”

At least in the 43 1/3 innings Scherzer managed amid all those maladies in 2024, that looked to be the case. In addition to his previously mentioned 3.95 ERA, the right-hander fanned 22.6% of opponents (roughly average) with a terrific 5.6% walk rate. His once-95-mph fastball sat at a career-low average of 92.5 mph in 2024, however, and he dealt with home run troubles for a second straight year (1.65 HR/9 in 2023, 1.45 in 2024). The righty’s swinging-strike rate (14.6%) remained excellent, but most of those whiffs came off the plate. Scherzer’s opponents made contact on 83.1% of swings within the strike zone — his highest level since 2011.

For the Jays, Scherzer wouldn’t need to reprise his status as an ace, however. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios have the top three spots in the rotation. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez follow, but Francis has minor league options remaining and Rodriguez could move back into the bullpen. Toronto’s pitching depth, in general, is somewhat shaky with Alek Manoah on the mend from elbow surgery and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann missing most of the 2024 season due to injury. Rotation candidates beyond the top five include prospects Jake Bloss and Adam Macko as well as non-roster invitees Adam Kloffenstein and Eric Lauer.

The Mets have a more crowded staff, but president of baseball operations David Stearns is known for hoarding depth. Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes make up the starting staff right now. Swingmen Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill could get looks, too, as could top prospect Brandon Sproat. Fitting Scherzer into the puzzle is a bit of a challenge, particularly given the 110% luxury task the Mets are facing.

Dodgers & Deferrals: A Misguided Focus

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Zack Scott, former Mets Acting GM and four-time champion with the Red Sox, empowers sports operations and individuals to win through Four Rings Sports Solutions. He specializes in data-driven strategies and leadership development. His Sports Ops Launchpad helps aspiring sports ops pros break into the industry. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.  Zack will be contributing periodically to MLB Trade Rumors. 

The Dodgers aren’t ruining baseball with massive salary deferrals. They may be causing a perception issue for MLB, but focusing on deferrals for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement would be a misguided effort—a political gesture that won’t address the core competitive balance issues.

Deferrals serve two primary purposes: helping teams close deals and giving players a big headline to validate their market value and boost their status. They’re not a circumvention tool around the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) rules. Spending power, not contract structure, drives baseball’s economic landscape. Teams with greater resources have always been able to outspend smaller-market teams. This dynamic is inherent in leagues without hard salary caps.

Over the past five years, the Dodgers have become a lightning rod for fan discontent by deferring over $1B to acquire many star players. Shohei Ohtani’s $680MM deferred salary is an extreme example, but their long-term contracts consistently feature deferrals.

Let’s consider a hypothetical scenario: What if deferrals were prohibited? Would the Dodgers still have offered Ohtani a $700MM contract? It’s highly unlikely. A league where deferrals are banned wouldn’t change the Dodgers’ desire to acquire Ohtani, but it would necessitate a different contract structure. Guaranteed dollar amounts would likely align more with the present value calculations we observe in current MLB contracts.

Ohtani’s contract (97% deferred) calculates to a $460MM present value using MLB’s 4.43% discount rate. This figure makes sense in historical context, as it surpassed Trout’s $426.5MM (no deferrals), which stood as the highest for nearly five years. However, it’s crucial to understand the discount rate’s role in these calculations. MLB uses a conservative rate, which limits the CBT benefits for teams.

This standardized rate doesn’t reflect team owners’ financial realities. Many owners, especially those directly connected to global investment firms, achieve significantly higher returns. Consider Guggenheim’s Mark Walter, the Dodgers’ owner, whose firm has generated approximately 10% average annual returns, or Point72’s Steve Cohen, the Mets’ owner, with around 14% average annual returns. The present value drops significantly if we apply these more realistic discount rates to Ohtani’s deferred contract.

Using Walter’s rate, the present value would be approximately $282MM. Using Cohen’s rate, it would be even lower, around $203MM. This substantial difference reveals that the perceived CBT advantages from deferrals are less significant than they initially seem. Although deferrals offer teams greater financial flexibility in managing cash flow, their present value is inflated by the conservative discount rate used for CBT calculations.

While the CBT benefits from deferrals may be overstated, they carry inherent long-term risks. Revenue declines or ownership changes could jeopardize those large future payments. However, the Dodgers’ deep pockets mitigate these risks. Guggenheim’s returns suggest they’re well-positioned to meet these obligations. Commissioner Manfred cited the early 2000s Diamondbacks as a cautionary tale. Still, Arizona’s spending outpaced revenue, and their ownership was less diversified than the current Dodgers group, making a similar outcome unlikely. LA’s bet on continued financial success is reasonable.

My experience negotiating MLB contracts in large markets has shown that various contract structures can be critical to reaching agreements. We used salary escalators, signing bonuses, player opt-outs, and, yes, those evil deferrals. When I was with the Mets, we signed Francisco Lindor to a $341MM contract, including $50MM in deferrals and a $21MM signing bonus. While the deferrals didn’t drastically alter our CBT payroll, they were instrumental in reaching a “magic number” for Lindor, pushing him $1MM over Fernando Tatis Jr. to secure the headline highest-paid shortstop.

The “magic number” concept is crucial in player negotiations. It represents the minimum financial threshold a player is willing to accept to validate their market value and status. These numbers are rarely explicitly stated, as agents are more likely to present significantly higher buy-it-now prices and counteroffers. Effective negotiation requires understanding the underlying motivations behind this elusive target. Athletes at this level are incredibly competitive, so their reasons for setting their sights on a particular “magic number” differ from the typical fan.

Perhaps they’re motivated to be the highest paid at their position, to push the market forward to benefit the union, or maybe it’s a number that just feels better (e.g., $2MM vs. $1.95MM). Sometimes, the gap between the player’s “magic number” and the team’s offer is too wide to bridge. However, in other cases, creative contract structures, including deferrals, can be the key to finding common ground. If this flexibility didn’t exist, reaching those critical “magic numbers” would become significantly more challenging. This could lead to longer, more drawn-out negotiations—a scenario that already frustrates many baseball fans.

Mookie Betts’ contract with the Dodgers offers another compelling example. He signed a $365MM deal with $115MM deferred. While the headline figure was impressive (second largest contract behind Trout!), the present value was $307MM, placing it below a few additional contracts (Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gerrit Cole). This structure allowed the Dodgers to acquire a star player while satisfying Mookie and his agent’s desire to be seen as a top-two player. In Boston, we had tried to re-sign Betts, but our self-imposed $300MM limit wasn’t enough to meet this desire. A similar deferral structure to the Dodgers’ deal might have changed the outcome.

The Dodgers and other marquee franchises play an essential role in baseball. People are fascinated by greatness and love to root for or against the best, whether it’s Mahomes’ Chiefs, Jordan’s Bulls, Jeter’s Yankees, or Ken Jennings’ Jeopardy. Baseball’s “Goliaths,” as Scott Boras calls them, drive higher interest and TV ratings, ultimately benefiting all MLB teams. While fans of smaller-market teams may express frustration over the financial disparities, eliminating deferrals won’t solve their economic concerns.

The Dodgers are drawing all the attention because they added so many big names over the last five years. This is due to several factors: their superior financial resources, their ability to optimize player performance, their winning culture, and their West Coast location, which is a significant draw for Japanese players. These factors have raised their villain status, and that’s good for baseball. But along with that comes more noise, including misplaced outcries about deferrals.

Dodgers, Alex Vesia Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers and lefty reliever Alex Vesia have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.3MM deal with a club option for the 2026 season, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Vesia had filed at $2.35MM, while the Dodgers countered with a $2.05MM figure. Vesia comes out well ahead of the midpoint between those two figures and above the $1.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He was the Dodgers’ lone pending arbitration case, so they’ve now avoided the need for any arb hearings in 2025.

Vesia’s deal pays him $2.25MM in 2025, with the additional $50K guarantee coming in the form of the buyout on a $3.55MM option for 2026, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. Via a series of performance-based escalators, he can boost the value of that option by $175K, to $3.725MM.

The 28-year-old Vesia (29 in April) has been a key late-inning presence for Los Angeles since coming over from the Marlins alongside righty Kyle Hurt in a Feb. 2021 trade that sent Dylan Floro to Miami. He’s pitched 210 1/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball for L.A. and picked up 47 holds and eight saves along the way. That includes a career-best showing in 2024, when he notched a minuscule 1.76 earned run average, collected five saves and 13 holds, and fanned 33.1% of his opponents (against an ugly 12.5% walk rate, granted).

The 2024-25 offseason marks Vesia’s second trip through the arbitration process. He picks up a hearty 130% raise on last year’s even $1MM salary. By tacking on a club option for the 2026 campaign, the Dodgers have both potentially bought out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and also, at least in a technical sense, adhered to the prominent “file and trial” approach to arbitration by the vast majority of teams in the league in recent years (which is to say, once figures are exchanged/filed, talks on one-year deals are halted).

The presence of the option is notable in that it technically makes Vesia’s contract a multi-year deal, even if the second season isn’t guaranteed. Because there’s an option on it, the agreement can’t be used as a comp in future arbitration negotiations on one-year deals with similar players — either by the Dodgers or the other teams in the league.

Kirby Yates Passes Physical, Signs One-Year Deal With Dodgers

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Kirby Yates has passed his physical and agreed to a one-year deal with the Dodgers, according to multiple reports. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is guaranteed $13MM and could unlock another $1MM in bonuses — $500K each at 50 and 55 appearances. The team has still not officially announced the signing.

Yates becomes the latest big acquisition in a huge Dodgers offseason. He’s their second marquee pickup in the late innings. Los Angeles signed Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM pact with deferrals not long before agreeing to terms with Yates. The Dodgers had also retained Blake Treinen on a two-year deal earlier in the winter. They’ll join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia in what should be one of the game’s best relief groups.

Scott and Yates were arguably the two best free agent relievers, at least for the upcoming season. The 37-year-old Yates (38 in March) was never going to match the three-year terms for Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes, but he’s coming off the best platform season in the relief class. He turned in a sterling 1.17 earned run average while striking out nearly 36% of batters faced for the Rangers. Yates went 33-34 on save opportunities while firing 61 2/3 innings — the second-highest workload of his career.

Emmanuel Clase was the only reliever in MLB who was definitively better. Yates finished second behind Clase in ERA among relievers with 50+ innings. He was seventh in strikeout percentage. Yates placed in the top 25 in swinging strike rate (15.2%). Opponents had no success against either his 93 MPH fastball or his mid-80s splitter.

That was Yates’ second utterly dominant season. As a member of the Padres in 2019, he led MLB with 41 saves while turning in a 1.19 ERA across 60 2/3 frames. His next three years were essentially wiped out by injury, as he battled elbow issues and underwent his second career Tommy John procedure in March 2021. He returned to throw 60 1/3 innings of 3.28 ERA ball for the Braves in 2023 before signing a $4.5MM deal with Texas last winter.

Yates becomes the ninth free agent reliever of this offseason to sign for at least $10MM annually (not including swingman Nick Martinez, who accepted a qualifying offer from Cincinnati). He trails only Scott in average salary, though that’s obviously in large part because his age limited him to one year.

The Dodgers are well into the highest luxury tax tier and pay a 110% tax on any spending at this point. They’re investing $27.3MM to add Yates to the back of the bullpen for a year. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax ledger around $382MM — more than $70MM higher than any other club’s projected payroll.

Los Angeles will presumably announce the signing within the next day or two, which will require a 40-man roster move. That could be a simple DFA, though it’s also possible they trade from their bullpen. They’re planning to run a six-man rotation, which means they can only carry seven relievers.

Scott, Yates, Treinen, Kopech, Phillips and Vesia seem locked into six spots. Neither Anthony Banda nor Ryan Brasier can be optioned, so one of them would probably be squeezed out if everyone’s healthy on Opening Day. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Dodgers were marketing Brasier in recognition of the forthcoming roster squeeze.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported last week that Yates and the Dodgers had reached a tentative agreement, pending a physical. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was first to report that Yates had passed the physical and signed a one-year deal. ESPN”s Jeff Passan was first with the $13MM guarantee and $1MM in incentives, while Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic specified the $500K bonuses at 50 and 55 appearances. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Jack Flaherty Discusses Free Agency

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Free agent righty Jack Flaherty appeared on the Foul Territory podcast recently to discuss his ongoing trip through free agency and made some revealing comments about the state of his market. Notably, the right-hander indicated that while a handful of teams have continued to check in with him throughout the offseason, clubs have been reluctant to make him a formal offer to this point.

“It’s like, ’What are you up to?’ [and] ’When is the market gonna move?’… You have to make an offer and then it’ll go, but just calling and checking in… I don’t know. It’s weird,” Flaherty said. He then went on to suggest that clubs might have some level of complacency about improving beyond the level needed to have a chance at getting into the playoffs.

“It’s not that I don’t think teams want to win, I just think you have a lot of teams that look at their rosters and they’re happy with it… teams just want to get into the playoffs. Maybe it’s not World Series or bust, it’s just hope we can get into the playoffs and then kind of see what happens.”

Since the league expanded the postseason to include 12 teams back in 2022, there’s been a trend away from the tear-down method of rebuilding used by teams like the Cubs, Nationals, and Orioles in recent years. Entering the 2025 season, only the White Sox and Marlins are rebuilding in that sort of aggressive fashion with the rest of the league’s clubs generally looking to maintain at least some level of baseline competitiveness. That’s a strategy incentivized by the new playoff format, which not only added another playoff team in both leagues but also allows Wild Card teams to participate in a three-game series rather than the one-game, win-or-go-home playoff the 10-team format utilized in the past.

That guarantee of a postseason series for any club that can make the playoffs at all, when combined with the inherit randomness of baseball’s playoffs, has arguably weakened the incentive for teams to maximize their odds of winning their division at the expense of the franchise’s longer-term outlook. Some evidence for this is relatively easy to see: 2024 was the first season in a decade where no club won 100 games, and the first three seasons of the 12-team playoff format have seen five teams that won 86 games or less make the postseason after just two such teams made the playoffs during the entire 10-team playoff era that spanned from 2012 to 2021.

That includes 84-win campaigns by the Diamondbacks and Marlins in 2023, which were tied for the lowest win total for any playoff team since 83-win Cardinals won the World Series back in 2006. Only one other team, the 2005 Padres, has made it to the playoffs with less than 84 wins in a 162-game season since the 1973 Mets won the AL East with 82 wins. To what extent that increased ability for teams with win totals in the mid-80’s to make the postseason can be traced back to the struggles some higher-end free agents such as Flaherty have faced in finding free agent deals that are commensurate with their perceived value is difficult to pin down, however.

Regardless of the cause of Flaherty’s depressed market, it was reported earlier this month that the right-hander is now open to short-term offers as he looks to find his new home with the start of Spring Training just two over two weeks away. The Tigers, Cubs, Orioles, and Blue Jays are among the teams that have been connected to Flaherty this winter. The right-hander expressed a desire to return to the Dodgers early in the offseason, but that door has long appeared closed in the aftermath of Los Angeles striking early to sign Blake Snell back in November. The Dodgers have also added Roki Sasaki since then, further crowding their rotation mix. Flaherty acknowledged the long odds of a reunion during the interview, noting that he “can do the math” and surmise that he’s “most likely” not returning to LA. He also has interest in returning to his other 2024 club this year, however, and spoke positively of the Tigers during the interview.

“You know, I wanted to stay in Detroit,” Flaherty said. “We had conversations, and I loved it there. And I thought the combo of me and Skub was incredible… we’ve been talking to them and talking to other teams… Hey, you know, it would be fun to go back there.”

The Tigers appear to be one of the more active teams at the top of the remaining free agent market at this point, as they’ve remained engaged not only with Flaherty but also with third baseman Alex Bregman. Bregman has appeared to be the club’s priority to this point, but those are reportedly at a “standstill.” If Bregman ultimately signs elsewhere, it’s easy to imagine Detroit redirecting those funds to Flaherty where the righty would reclaim his role at the top of the club’s rotation alongside Tarik Skubal. That signing would push the club’s potential fifth starter options like Kenta Maeda, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Keider Montero into depth roles entering the season.

Stan Kasten, David Rubenstein Speak On MLB’s Economics

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The Dodgers introduced their latest big-ticket free agent signee on Thursday. Team president Stan Kasten was among those in attendance at the press conference to celebrate Tanner Scott joining the club on a four-year free agent deal.

Asked about the Dodgers’ second consecutive monster offseason, Kasten defended the organization’s spending. “This is really good for baseball. I have no question about it,” he told reporters (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Kasten pointed out that MLB’s playoff volatility reduces the chance for any individual team to post a dynastic run of World Series titles. He argued that the Dodgers’ roster-building approach should energize both their own fanbase and those of other clubs who want to see them fail.

“On the entertainment side, which is what we are, it’s really good when there’s one beloved team by their fans who come out in record numbers, leading all of baseball in attendance, while that same team can be hated and lead baseball in road attendance. That’s a win-win for baseball,” Kasten said.

Needless to say, not everyone outside Los Angeles shares that opinion. ESPN’s Jeff Passan published a lengthy column looking at both the Dodgers’ successful Roki Sasaki pursuit and their overall success in both free agency and internal player development. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers have gotten backlash not only from opposing fans but from rival front offices. That’s in response to both L.A.’s overall willingness to spend and the level of deferrals they’ve included in most of those contracts. Readers are encouraged to check out Passan’s piece in full.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects the Dodgers for a luxury tax payroll around $375MM. The Phillies have the second-highest layout at roughly $308MM. The Yankees are the only other team above $300MM by that estimate. The gap between the Dodgers and the 30th-ranked Marlins is almost $300MM.

Passan writes that the payroll disparity (plus the $765MM guarantee which Juan Soto secured from the Mets) has led to a “rekindling” of talks amongst owners who hope for the implementation of a salary cap. New Orioles owner David Rubenstein, who purchased the franchise from the Angelos family last spring, is among those in support.

“I wish it would be the case that we would have a salary cap in baseball the way other sports do, and maybe eventually we will, but we don’t have that now,” Rubenstein told Yahoo Finance at this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos. “I suspect we’ll probably have something closer to (the salary caps and floors) the NFL and the NBA have, but there’s no guarantee of that.”

A cap, of course, would need to be collectively bargained. Major League Baseball’s owners have attempted to implement a cap in many previous CBA negotiations. The MLB Players Association has refused to budge on that issue, as it remains strongly opposed to putting fixed limits on players’ earning power. The luxury tax is designed to curtail spending at the top of the market. It has indeed served as a deterrent for some big-market franchises but obviously is a barrier which teams are free to cross if ownership is willing.

“I think the big city teams have some advantages. Now, in Los Angeles, they have another advantage,” Rubenstein added. “They have Japanese players, [a] number of them that they got like Shohei, and people in Japan really love watching the Dodgers, and they sell a lot of merchandise in Japan for Dodgers players.”

A salary cap would not have directly influenced the Sasaki signing. His earning power was hard-capped by MLB’s international signing limit for amateurs. Sasaki qualified because he hasn’t turned 25. He signed for a $6.5MM bonus that is hundreds of millions of dollars below what he would’ve commanded had he been a true free agent. The Dodgers’ spending may have indirectly influenced his decision — he’s joining the defending champions on a roster that already had a pair of Japanese superstars in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — but the geographic and endorsement reasons for his signing are outside the purview of a cap.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that many fans are frustrated by how this offseason has transpired. More than two-thirds of respondents to a recent MLBTR poll indicated they hoped for a salary cap to be implemented during the next round of collective bargaining, which will take place after the 2026 season. Roughly half of respondents said they’d be willing to sacrifice the entire ’27 season to a work stoppage if it meant the league could successfully leverage the players union into agreeing to a cap. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Tim Dierkes discussed the situation in greater detail on this week’s edition of our podcast.

Deferrals are another source of agitation for many fans, particularly after Ohtani’s deal that deferred $680MM of his $700MM guarantee. The Dodgers are neither the first team nor the only current club to defer significant money. The Nationals had deferrals on a few deals (e.g. Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin) that were crucial to their 2019 World Series win. The Blue Jays deferred around two-thirds of the salary on Anthony Santander’s contract just this week. Still, the Dodgers have deferred a much greater amount of money than anyone else within the past year-plus. Ohtani, Will Smith, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández, Tommy Edman and Tanner Scott have all deferred payments on recent contracts.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes covered shortly after the Ohtani signing, the deferrals are not really a workaround the luxury tax. In many cases, those contracts’ net present value — which adjusts the deferrals for inflation — ended up around expectations. As Passan notes, the CBA requires teams to set aside money for the future salaries within two years of signing a contract that includes deferrals. Passan points out that the deferrals and significant signing bonuses, which many of those deals included, are advantageous for the players to minimize taxes under California law though.

None of this will change in this offseason or next. We’re less than two years away from the expiration of the CBA and what seems likely to be another offseason lockout. These conversations will take on greater urgency as that draws nearer.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Okey To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers announced their group of non-roster invitees to big league camp. They revealed in that announcement that they’ve re-signed catcher Chris Okey to a minor league deal. Right-hander Justin Jarvis and outfielder Justin Dean, neither of whom has reached the majors, also receive MLB invites after signing minor league contracts earlier in the offseason.

Okey, who turned 30 last month, has nine games of major league experience. He appeared in seven games for the Reds in 2022 and suited up twice for the Angels two seasons ago. The former second-round pick signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers going into last season. He hit .236/.283/.327 through 45 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City. Okey carries a .242/.306/.363 batting line across 769 Triple-A plate appearances.

Will Smith, Austin Barnes and Hunter Feduccia are all on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Dalton Rushing (who also received an invite to big league camp) is likely headed back to Oklahoma City to start the season. Okey figures to back him up at the top minor league level. Feduccia still has two option years remaining and will probably also be in Triple-A as long as Smith and Barnes are healthy.

Jarvis, 24, is a former fifth-round pick by Milwaukee. The Brewers traded him to the Mets for Mark Canha at the 2023 deadline. Jarvis started 10 of 28 appearances between New York’s top two affiliates last season. He combined for a 4.55 earned run average with decent if unspectacular strikeout (21.9%) and walk (7.8%) marks. Dean is a 28-year-old who spent most of last year with Atlanta’s Double-A team. He hit .244/.332/.321 but stole 47 bases in 92 games. He can play all three outfield positions.

Tyler Cyr Announces Retirement

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Former big league right-hander Tyler Cyr has informed MLB Trade Rumors that he has decided to retire. “After much reflection, I am officially announcing my retirement from Major League Baseball,” Cyr said in his announcement. “This decision is not one I take lightly, and it comes with a heavy heart & excitement for what’s to come. While my passion for the game and my love for the competition will never fade, the reality of a shoulder injury I sustained in 2023 with the Dodgers has made it impossible for me to fully recover and continue playing at the level I expect of myself.

I want to extend my deepest gratitude to my family, coaches, teammates, and, of course, the fans who have supported me throughout my journey. I am so incredibly thankful for the opportunities I’ve had and the memories I’ll carry with me forever. Baseball has given me everything, from the thrill of competition to lifelong friendships, and I will always cherish the game.

Even though my time on the field has come to an end, I’m excited for what lies ahead. My love for baseball is unwavering, and I believe I have so much more to offer in the future—whether it’s through coaching, mentoring, or contributing to the game in new ways. The lessons I’ve learned and the passion I’ve gained over the years will never go away, and I’m excited to stay connected to the game I love.

Thank you all for believing in me, for cheering me on, and for allowing me to live out my dream. This isn’t goodbye—it’s simply a new chapter. I’ll always be part of the baseball family, and my love for the game will never end.”

Cyr, now 31, began his professional career in 2015 when the Giants selected him in the 10th round out of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. He showed enough promise in his first minor league games that Baseball America ranked him the #26 prospect in the system going into 2016. He continued climbing the minor league ladder but still hadn’t gotten a major league chance by the end of the 2021 season and elected free agency.

That led to a minor league deal with the Phillies, which allowed him to get to the show when the Phils selected his contract on August 21 of 2022. He got a rude greeting to start his big league career. He was sent to the mound with two outs in the top of the 9th, with the Phils trailing the Mets 9-8 after David Robertson had blown a save. Brandon Nimmo then hit a solo home run off Cyr to make it 10-8. That was followed by a Starling Marte double before Cyr got Francisco Lindor to pop out and end the inning. The Phills added a run in the bottom of the ninth but lost 10-9.

Cyr was designated for assignment the next day and claimed by the Athletics a few days later. He tossed 13 innings for them down the stretch, allowing three earned runs. After getting bumped off the roster by the A’s, he landed a minor league deal with the Dodgers going into 2023. He was selected to their big league roster in May and made two appearances before landing on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement. He was transferred to the 60-day IL a few days later and outrighted off the roster at season’s end. As he referenced in his statement, he never fully recovered from that injury. He didn’t sign anywhere for 2024 and has now decided to hang up his spikes.

He retires with a 2.40 ERA in 15 big league innings. He recorded 18 strikeouts and five walks. He got one win with the A’s and was never tagged with a loss, allowing him to go out with a perfect 1-0 record in the majors. Though his career was brief, he was in the show long enough to strike out stars like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and Shohei Ohtani (twice). He tossed 301 2/3 innings over his several years in the minors with a 3.16 ERA, 28% strikeout rate, 11.7% walk rate and grounders on more than half the balls in play he allowed.

In his correspondence, Cyr added that he will be graduating from Embry-Riddle in May with a degree in homeland security and a minor in management. He’s open to a specialty role in baseball but also non-baseball opportunities. We at MLBTR thank him for reaching out with this news and wish him the best on whatever comes next.

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