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Checking In On Last Year’s NL Division Champs

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We checked in earlier tonight on how things are shaping up for last year’s American League division winners as get set for a new season. Let’s do the same here for the three Senior Circuit clubs that won division titles in 2019…

NL West – Dodgers (106-56; won division by 21 games)

  • It’s hard to assess the Dodgers’ roster without knowing if their planned Mookie Betts acquisition will go through. There are many moving parts involved in that deal, as a Betts pickup would send fellow outfielders Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, not to mention righty Kenta Maeda, to different teams. Regardless of that, and regardless of what wasn’t an especially active offseason for the Dodgers before the Betts swap, they’re in line to take home their eighth straight division championship in 2020. That said, they’ll face more competition from the Diamondbacks and Padres. Those two teams have enjoyed impressive offseasons, though it’s still difficult to imagine either toppling the juggernaut Dodgers in 2020.

NL East – Braves (97-65; won division by four games)

  • The Braves lost a few key free agents in Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, but they still look like a rock-solid club when considering the talent on hand and their new additions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka continue to headline their core, and they’ve picked up Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels and Travis d’Arnaud in free agency. There’s little doubt the Braves will be very good again in 2020; problem is that they’re stuck in a division with two or three real challengers. The Nationals, last year’s world champions, as well as the Mets and Phillies have done quite a bit of tinkering with their rosters this winter. Even the Marlins have tried to better themselves. All things considered, the NL East is shaping up to be a dogfight this year.

NL Central – Cardinals (91-71; won division by two games)

  • Like the NL East, the NL Central should be hotly contested in 2020. The Cardinals ruled by a thin margin last season, but they’ve since had a pretty low-key offseason. For the most part, they’ll be relying on their talent from 2019 to nab another title this year. Luckily for the Cardinals, neither the Brewers nor Cubs look demonstrably better (they’re arguably worse) than they were last season, and the Pirates’ roster is a mess. The Reds have been one of the offseason’s busiest teams, though, and look as if they’ll have a chance to jump from 75-win team to playoff-caliber club in 2020.

Clark, Boras, Moreno Upset With Betts Swap Hold-Up

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Plenty of fans and folks in the game are no doubt frustrated by the uncertainty hanging over a dramatic duo of prospective trades centered around superstar Mookie Betts. MLBPA chief Tony Clark made clear that he’s got even bigger problems with the situation in a statement today.

“The proposed trades between the Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins, and Angels need to be resolved without further delay,” Clark says in the statement. “The events of this last week have unfairly put several Players’ lives in a state of limbo.”

Clark is referring, of course, to (a) the proposed three-team swap between the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Twins that involves Betts, David Price, Kenta Maeda, Alex Verdugo, and Brusdar Graterol; and (b) the cross-town deal that would send Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling to the Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo, with other pre-MLB players also involved. These trades were reported on Tuesday but remain unresolved.

The slow speed of concluding the dealmaking isn’t the only thing that drew Clark’s ire. Reports have indicated that issues surrounding the health of Graterol gummed up the swaps. Clark is understandably displeased with those disclosures and the role they’ve played in keeping these players in limbo.

Clark continued: “The unethical leaking of medical information as well as the perversion of the salary arbitration process serve as continued reminders that too often Players are treated as commodities by those running the game.”

Uber-agent Scott Boras, who reps Graterol, also chimed in (via Jon Heyman of MLB Network, on Twitter). He notes that the young flamethrower was operating at full tilt late last season and knocked the Red Sox’ apparent medical concerns. “They’re relying on a cursory medical record review,” says Boras, “yet noted orthopedic doctors who saw him say there’s no issue going forward.”

These comments represent is the latest volley in a long-running, multi-front battle between the union and league. Labor relations remain fraught. Evan Drellich of The Athletic recently noted on Twitter that anticipated early bargaining discussions have yet to materialize.

As for the twin Dodgers deals, it seems that frustrations are building from various quarters. Angels owner Arte Moreno is said to be furious that the hold-up of the first deal has left his organization in flux, per Heyman (via Twitter).

Dodgers Reach Two-Year Arbitration Deal With Chris Taylor

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The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with utilityman Chris Taylor, per a team announcement. He’ll ink a two-year deal that resolves his arb salaries for both 2020 and 2021, providing respective payouts of $5.6MM and $7.8MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Taylor had been headed for an arbitration hearing. He was seeking a $5.8MM salary, with the Dodgers offering $5.25MM in return. Instead, the sides saw eye to eye on an agreement that provides Taylor some security and gives the club cost certainty.

The 29-year-old Taylor hasn’t quite performed to the level of his breakout 2017 season, but has remained a highly valuable contributor for the Dodgers in the ensuing two seasons. All told, he carries a cumulative .268/.340/.468 batting line since the start of the 2017 season.

Taylor adds value on the bases and in the field, where he’s especially useful given his ability to handle every non-battery position. Obviously the Dodgers foresee another productive campaign from the former fifth-round pick.

Dodgers Defeat Joc Pederson In Arbitration

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The Dodgers have won their arbitration case against outfielder Joc Pederson, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll earn $7.75MM to play in Los Angeles for the coming season, though it remains to be seen which uniform he’ll be wearing.

Pederson had sought a $9.5MM payday after a strong 2019 offensive campaign. MLBTR had projected that he’d earn $8.5MM, but both sides dug in their heels. Arbitration hearings are black-and-white propositions, with the panel simply choosing the number it deems closest to the player’s true value.

All indications remain that Pederson will earn his new salary with the cross-town Angels. But we’re still waiting for a fun intra-Los Angeles trade to be finalized. (That seems likely to occur once another, yet more notable swap goes in the books.) This is Pederson’s final arb-eligible campaign.

Pederson, 27, appears to have been knocked out of the Dodgers’ outfield mix due to the still-pending acquisition of Mookie Betts. But that’s not to suggest that Pederson isn’t an accomplished player in his own right. He carries a cumulative .249/.331/.530 batting line with 61 long balls in 957 plate appearances over the past two seasons. While Pederson carries yawning platoon splits over his career, he’s quite a weapon when deployed almost exclusively against right-handed pitching.

Latest On Potential Mookie Betts Trade

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February 7: The trade is expected to become official today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, citing sources from multiple teams involved in the deal. Completion of the Betts blockbuster would serve as a precursor for the finalization of the Dodgers’ Pederson/Stripling trade with the Angels as well.

It’s not yet clear what type of alterations, if any, will be made to the deal. Heyman tweeted earlier this morning that the Red Sox have been seeking an additional top prospect from the Twins, although it’s difficult to envision the Twins parting with another highly regarded talent without additional pieces being sent their way.

February 6, 8:27PM: “Some involved [in the trade] are now suggesting it’s not a certainty,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, as the holdup continues to center around the Red Sox, Twins, and Graterol’s condition.  Boston is reportedly trying to “reconfigure” its end of the deal with the Twins, “meaning more than Graterol” would head from Minnesota to Fenway Park.

1:03 AM: There’s only a “slim” chance this trade will completely fall apart, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The delay “is a problem but one we can figure out,” a source involved in the trade told Passan.

February 5: It has been more than 24 hours since the Mookie Betts trade was first reported, but the potential blockbuster featuring the Red Sox, Dodgers and Twins still hasn’t been finalized as we head into Thursday. There’s still confidence the deal will be completed, but there may end up being more pieces involved in the trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

The Red Sox are slated to send Betts and left-hander David Price (and approximately half of the remaining $96MM on his contract) to the Dodgers. In return, the Red Sox are set to get outfielder Alex Verdugo from LA and righty Brusdar Graterol from Minnesota. The Twins are in line to receive righty Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers.

Despite missing the final couple of months of last season with back/oblique/core problems, Verdugo has already been medically cleared, according to Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal writes that the Red Sox do have some concerns over the hard-throwing Graterol, whom they now regard as more of a reliever than a starter after looking at his medical records. Notably, Graterol’s a past Tommy John surgery patient who has also dealt with other injuries. The 21-year-old missed two months last season with shoulder issues that limited him to a combined 70 2/3 innings at four different levels (including 9 2/3 in the bigs).

While it still seems that Boston will acquire Graterol if the trade does occur, Rosenthal notes the club may also require another player and/or cash considerations from either the Dodgers or Twins to push it over the goal line. Assuming the three teams are able to reach some sort of compromise on what would go down as one of the most significant trades in recent history, it should open the door for yet another high-profile swap involving the Dodgers. They’re working to move outfielder Joc Pederson and hurler Ross Stripling as part of a deal with the Angels, but that’s delayed as the Dodgers await word on the Betts deal.

Dodgers Extend Max Muncy

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1:00pm: The Dodgers have announced Muncy’s contract extension.

11:20am: Muncy’s deal will be paid out in the form of a $4.5MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary in 2020, followed by salaries of $7.5MM in 2021 and $11.5MM in 2022, DiGiovanna tweets.

10:44am: The Dodgers and slugging infielder Max Muncy have agreed to a three-year, $26MM extension that contains a club option for a fourth season, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). The $26MM guarantee will cover all three of Muncy’s would-be arbitration seasons (2020-22), while the fourth-year option will give the Dodgers the chance to control a free-agent year for an additional $13MM or take a $1.5MM buyout, per Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times (Twitter link). Muncy is represented by Hub Sports Management.

Max Muncy | Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Muncy, 29, was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and had yet to settle on a salary for the upcoming season. His camp submitted a $4.675MM salary figure, while the Dodgers countered with a $4MM offer of their own (as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). Rather than go to a hearing, the two sides have instead agreed to a longer-term pact that’ll eliminate the need to ever deal with the arbitration process again while also prolonging the Dodgers’ control over the late-blooming slugger for an additional season.

Few took notice when Muncy was released by the Athletics at the end of Spring Training 2017 and quickly latched on with the Dodgers as a minor league free agent. But Muncy laid waste to Triple-A pitching in ’17 (.309/.414/.491) and found himself in the big leagues with the Dodgers early in 2018. Fast forward two seasons, and Muncy has turned in consecutive 35-homer campaigns while bashing big league pitching to the tune of a .256/.381/.545 slash with 70 home runs, 39 doubles and three triples in 1070 plate appearances (something to keep in mind when prepping the ever-clever “print the playoff tickets!” response to a minor league signing).

Not only has Muncy unexpectedly given the Dodgers a thunderous bat to add to the middle of an already deep and imposing lineup, he’s also proven to be at least a passable defender at each of first base, second base and third base, helping to give manager Dave Roberts some defensive versatility. And while he was initially used as more of a platoon player, the left-handed-hitting Muncy has seen increased opportunities against southpaws, crushing them at a .268/.365/.529 clip in 2019 and hitting a combined .263/.363/.529 in 259 plate appearances against same-handed opponents dating back to Opening Day 2018.

The guaranteed portion of Muncy’s contract runs through his age-31 season, and assuming he maintains anything close to this level of productivity, the $13MM option on his age-32 campaign will also be picked up. That’d position him to reach the open market at the relatively late age of 33, but for a player who didn’t solidify himself as a big leaguer until he’d already turned 27, it’s hardly a surprise to see a willingness to delay his path to free agency in exchange for that first enormous payday.

From the Dodgers’ vantage point, they’ll lock up a key asset on a deal that hardly breaks the bank for them, but it’s still worth noting that the extension could more than double Muncy’s luxury-tax price point in the short term. Muncy would’ve counted for either $4MM or $4.675MM against the luxury tax had he agreed to a one-year deal at one of the two submitted figures, but the average annual value of his extension ($8.667MM) will now be the figure that counts against that tax line.

Depending on how the chips fall in the yet-to-be-finalized trades centering around Mookie Betts, David Price and Joc Pederson, this extension could very well put the Dodgers slightly over the $208MM barrier. Adding Muncy’s extension, adding Betts/Price but subtracting the portion of Price’s contract paid by the Red Sox and subtracting Pederson’s salary would still place the Dodgers a couple million over the line, per the projections of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. Then again, the Dodgers would still have time to work to reduce that number if ownership’s goal is indeed to remain south of the tax ceiling. And, of course, as a first-time offender — the Dodgers didn’t exceed the tax threshold in 2019 — L.A.’s “penalty” would amount to a mere 20 percent slap on the wrist for every dollar north of $208MM.

Joc Pederson’s Arbitration Hearing Taking Place Today

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As the baseball world — fans and the industry alike — await the resolution in the potential hangup on the Mookie Betts blockbuster and the finalization of the reported trade sending Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling to the Angels, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets one possible holdup in the latter of those two deals: Pederson’s arbitration hearing is taking place this morning.

It’s an extremely atypical set of circumstances leading into Pederson’s hearing, as the Dodgers are reportedly in agreement on the framework of a deal that’d send him up to Anaheim at a time when they’re also set to argue his salary with an arbitration panel.

Had the two sides agreed to a swap involving Pederson earlier in the winter, the Angels could’ve prepped for a case in spite of the fact that Pederson has never played a game for them. That type of situation isn’t ideal for clubs but also isn’t unprecedented. As then-Angels-assistant-GM Matt Klentak told MLBTR several years ago in regard to Matt Joyce, whom they’d acquired in an offseason trade (and fortunately signed before heading to an arbitration hearing): “I still haven’t met Matt Joyce. I’ve negotiated his contract with his agent, we’ve traded for him, but I’ve never personally met him. … I’d really have hated for the first time I met this guy to be wearing a suit, sitting across a table, arguing over a million dollars.”

Viewed through that lens and considering the timing of the trade agreement, it’s only logical that the Angels wouldn’t be tasked with making the the case against Pederson’s camp on such short notice. They haven’t had time to prepare an argument for said hearing or even to try to come to terms on a middle ground between Pedesron’s $9.5MM filing figure and the $7.75MM figure submitted by the Dodgers.

Of course, the ultimate price point will in some ways impact how the two teams value Pederson. It’s highly unlikely that the outcome of the hearing will torpedo the trade, but it could determine which secondary pieces the Angels send to the Dodgers to finalize the arrangement. Given that additional layer of complexity, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that an exec with another club “suspects” that MLB is having a third-party lawyer present the other side of Pederson’s case, thus entirely removing the Dodgers and Angels from the equation.

Between Pederson’s hearing and the reported medical snag in the Betts/Price/Maeda blockbuster, there are clearly numerous balls in the air that need to be accounted for prior to the completion of this series of significant transactions. A ruling on Pederson’s case should be known in the near future — arbitration results are typically known within a day of the hearing — which could bring some clarity to one of the many wrinkles in the Dodgers’ ongoing and extremely complex trade negotiations.

This Date In Transactions History: Minor Signing, Major Impact

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It was on this date six years ago that the Dodgers made one of the greatest low-risk free-agent signings in recent memory. On Feb. 5, 2014, the club agreed to a minor league contract with third baseman Justin Turner, who has gone from afterthought to household name since he first donned a Dodgers uniform.

Now 35 years old, Turner was a seventh-round pick of the Reds in 2006 who took years and multiple uniforms to blossom into a quality major leaguer. Turner debuted with the Orioles in 2009, but he played almost exclusively with the Mets through 2013. While Turner didn’t exactly set the league on fire in New York, his offensive production did hover around the league-average mark.

During his 895-plate appearance run as a Met, Turner batted .265/.326/.370 (good for a 97 wRC+) while striking out just 13.1 percent of the time. Passable? Yes. But a lack of power helped cut down Turner, who hit a mere eight home runs and posted a weak .104 ISO as a member of the Mets. They wound up non-tendering him going into 2014, reportedly because they weren’t satisfied with the effort he put forth.

Turner’s power was dormant in New York (maybe his effort was, too), which is why he had to settle for a non-guaranteed deal to join the Dodgers. That pop has come to the surface in Los Angeles, though. Turner has eclipsed the .200 ISO mark in four straight seasons, though it took some time for him to become a legitimate power threat as a Dodger.

While Turner did hit an excellent .340/.404/.493 in 322 PA during his first season with the Dodgers, skepticism was warranted because that triple-slash line was buoyed by an unsustainable .404 batting average on balls in play. Indeed, Turner’s BABIP since then has fallen almost 100 points (he owns a .314 mark dating back to 2015). Nevertheless, the right-hander’s .297/.378/.508 line (139 wRC+) in 2,579 trips to the plate over the past half-decade helped make him one of the most valuable players in the game in that span, evidenced in part by a 21.9 fWAR that only 19 position players outdid from 2015-19. Turner also smacked 105 home runs during that stretch, and he did so while striking out in just 14.6 percent of PA.

Turner can attribute a large portion of his success in LA to help from Marlon Byrd, a former Orioles teammate, and a hitting coach named Doug Latta. As covered by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik in the book “The MVP Machine” (excerpt via Slate), Byrd and Latta were instrumental in getting Turner to take a more fly ball-oriented approach at the plate. Turner, his bank account and the Dodgers have all benefited from it.

Thanks to the breakout Turner enjoyed during his first couple years as a Dodger, they re-signed him to a four-year, $64MM deal entering 2017. Needless to say, that’s quite a step up from the minors pact he settled for upon first joining the team. For their part, the Dodgers have won the NL West in every season since Turner first signed with them and taken home a pair of pennants. Turner’s obviously not the sole reason they’ve been so dominant, but he has been one of their key contributors. He’s also a reminder not to discount anyone who signs a minor league contract. You never know when a breakout’s around the corner.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Video: Dodgers Acquire Betts & Price; Twins Get Maeda

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A franchise-altering three-team blockbuster was struck, as the Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts and David Price, the Twins got Kenta Maeda, and the Red Sox received Alex Verdugo and Brusdar Graterol. But wait, there’s more! The Angels are expected to acquire Joc Pederson, the Giants signed Wilmer Flores, and the Mets’ sale to Steve Cohen is in jeopardy! MLBTR’s Jeff Todd runs through a wild day for the MLB hot stove in today’s video.

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