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Latest On Offers To Bryce Harper

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If it seems we’re making only incremental progress in our understanding of the Bryce Harper saga, that may be due to the fact that the bidding is still progressing in a cautious manner. We learned yesterday that the Giants’ interest extended to the ten-year contract range, and there’s more chatter this morning, though it’s fair to wonder whether the recent movement is mostly just setting the stage for a final frenzy.

Harper’s camp seemingly expects to sign a record-breaking contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. It remains to be seen both where Harper will land and what record(s) he’ll break, but Nightengale writes that the three primary remaining contenders — the Dodgers, Giants, and Phillies — “have vowed to provide Harper with either the biggest overall free-agent contract in North American sports history or the largest average annual salary anyone has ever received in the sport.” The present record-holders in each of those two measures are Giancarlo Stanton ($325MM total contract) and Zack Greinke ($34.42MM AAV).

Agent Scott Boras is said to be “circling back with other teams” to see if they wish to get involved at the last moment. Presumably, that’ll include a phone call to the Nationals, Harper’s only professional club to date and a frequent match with Boras clients. It’s unknown at this point whether any other organizations will jump into the mix or whether the bidding is down to a final three. Regardless, Nightengale suggests, it seems the final stage of the process is finally upon us.

Here’s a quick breakdown of where the three aforementioned primary contenders stand, based upon reporting to date:

  • The Phillies “still have the highest offer on the table,” per Nightengale. As Matt Breen of Philly.com reported yesterday, though the club is increasingly pessimistic of landing the star. The Phils are holding the line for the time being, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter), with Harper looking to move past the Stanton guarantee. Clearly, there’s some tension between this report and Nightengale’s assessment of the organizations’ willingness to set new high-water marks in the financial department.
  • The Dodgers are evidently still not willing to go to a decade, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported yesterday on Twitter. They are, however, prepared to “obliterate” Greinke’s AAV record, Nightengale says. It seems the organization believes it’d need to dangle a term of “at least five years,” though that element of the interest is largely unknown. Neither is it known just how high the Dodgers would go in single-season AAV. It’s worth noting that the opt-out(s) included would be of even greater importance under this kind of scenario, though it’s unclear as yet how that could factor in.
  • As for the Giants, Nightengale says the club is willing to go past $300MM on a ten-year term to land Harper. That’s unsurprising, as it emerged yesterday that the San Francisco organization was willing to go to that length, but is notable nevertheless. Nightengale cites “panic and desperation about season-ticket sales and fan interest” as driving what is “strictly an ownership pursuit.”

Dodgers To Sign Brad Miller

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The Dodgers have inked infielder Brad Miller to a minor league deal, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. He’ll join the MLB side of Spring Training once the deal is finalized.

Miller, 29, has generally been a solid offensive performer, with an overall track record of .239/.313/.409 hitting through 2,505 plate appearances in six MLB seasons. He delivers notable pop for a player capable of playing the middle infield, with a lifetime .170 isolated power mark and one thirty-homer season under his belt (2016). A left-handed hitter, Miller has typically found quite a bit more success against right-handed pitching, with a 46-point platoon split in his lifetime wRC+ figures.

It’s hard to characterize Miller otherwise, as his offensive profile has shifted over the last few seasons. His follow-up to his power surge was a 2017 season in which he lept to a 15.5% walk rate but managed only a .201 batting average and career-low .136 ISO.

It was also in 2017 that Miller began to strike out with greater frequency. That issue truly came to the fore last year, when he went down on strikes in nearly a third of his plate appearances. Otherwise, though, Miller turned in a relatively balanced campaign that mostly reflected his career mean, with a .248/.311/.413 slash and seven home runs through 254 plate appearances.

The shapeshifting hasn’t prevented Miller from typically turning in plenty of offense for a shortstop. But he hasn’t been asked to line up there since ’16, when metrics distinctly soured on his glovework. Miller hasn’t graded as a positive on the right side of the infield, either, but he can probably be trusted with at least some innings anywhere on the dirt.

Making the Dodgers roster out of camp will likely be a tall order for Miller, though his versatility and platoon-friendly offensive profile certainly suit the club’s mantra. Miller will look to follow in the footsteps of several other recent utilitymen — including former Mariners shortstop competitor Chris Taylor and 2018 breakout performer Max Muncy — in finding new form in Los Angeles. Muncy’s own presence on the roster is what makes Miller seem like a particularly tough fit at this point, though any number of developments could leave Miller with an opening to stake a claim to a job.

Giants Discussing 10-Year Deal With Bryce Harper

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8:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still “predicated on [a] short-term deal,” though he adds that the Giants are indeed in “heavy” on Harper.

1:26pm: All of the teams still engaged with Harper’s camp — including, presumably, the Dodgers and Phillies — have discussed contracts of at least one decade in length, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

1:16pm: The sides are discussing a ten-year deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Salary levels are not known, but Pavlovic says the Giants’ offer would “likely give Harper a chance at the record dollar figure he has been looking for.”

11:48am: The Giants met again yesterday with Bryce Harper, according to a report from Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. CEO Larry Baer and president of baseball operations made a return trek to Las Vegas.

This news is all the more notable given that the rival Dodgers have jumped into the mix on Harper. Having now met twice with Harper and agent Scott Boras, it seems the San Francisco organization remains a serious pursuer.

The Phillies are also continuing their efforts to land the prized free agent, who is surely hoping to spark a late bidding war. Philadelphia is reportedly willing to commit over $300MM in a deal, with one other (as-yet-unidentified) team perhaps also playing in that range.

There had been “optimism” that the Phils would work out a deal by this point, but more recent developments have kept the door open to other organizations. As a Vegas native, Harper may well prefer to land on the west coast, though that’s all still guesswork even at this late stage of the market proceedings.

It’s possible we’re seeing some final positioning here from the remaining suitors. Whether the last bidding is underway isn’t known, but there have been indications that Harper will make a call this week and it stands to reason that he’d prefer to get into camp sooner than later.

Phillies’ Offer To Harper Reportedly Worth More Than $300 Million

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The Phillies have put forth an offer to free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper that would guarantee him more than $300MM, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That would indicate a willingness to top Manny Machado’s record-setting $300MM free-agent deal with the Padres. It’s not clear if Philadelphia’s offer is also greater than Giancarlo Stanton’s overall record $325MM contract.

Heyman suggests that there’s at least one other club that has expressed a willingness to top $300MM to sign Harper, which would be a surprising new development at this stage in his free agency. While the Nationals offered Harper an extremely deferred $300MM back in late September, there have been no recent indications that any of the remaining Harper suitors would come close to that mark

As of yesterday, the Dodgers and Giants were said to be the only two teams still in the mix for Harper, and both were said to be pursuing him on shorter-term contracts with sizable average annual values. The presence of another $300MM+ offer, if accurate, would represent a considerable change of heart for either of those California-based clubs (or the presence of another team involved in the bidding). Joel Sherman of the New York Post explored the situation yesterday, noting that the Dodgers appear willing to offer Harper a record-setting annual value — “at least $35 million a year, perhaps closer to $40 million” — but only over four or, at absolute most, five years. Sherman writes that he spoke to one person involved who “insisted not to undersell the Giants,” as well.

Over the weekend, the Phillies were optimistic of completing a 10-year deal with Harper by yesterday — an outcome that clearly didn’t happen and was likely impacted by the Dodgers’ Sunday-evening meeting with Harper in Las Vegas. Harper still expects to finally make his decision this week, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, bringing to an end an exhausting saga and likely resulting in at least one type of contractual record.

West Notes: Preller, Harper, Halos, Kikuchi

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Padres GM A.J. Preller has a lot riding on his hand-picked roster, particularly with the team now having made a huge commitment to Manny Machado, and he laid out his belief in the club not long after announcing the Machado deal. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, the top San Diego baseball decisionmaker turned in a fiery locker-room speech that seems to have made quite an impression on the players. It was a rare address for Preller, who sent the message that this group was compiled with winning intentions. There’s no shortage of interesting storylines to watch in San Diego — Machado’s impact, remaining roster needs, camp battles, prospect timelines — some of which may well carry into the regular season.

More from out west …

  • It’d be a convenient narrative to see the Dodgers’ late-breaking pursuit of Bryce Harper as something of a response to their division rivals to the south, but there’s really no reason to believe that’s much of a factor. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times examines what might actually be driving the Los Angeles powerhouse, suggesting that the foray into the superstar’s market may just be an attempt to see if Harper “is open to striking a deal on their terms — and their terms only.” Hernandez argues that the Dodgers should be willing “to create exceptions to their analytically dictated rules” in situations like these, but casts ample doubt as to whether the organization will in fact do so.
  • Elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles region, the city of Long Beach, California appears to be making a play to woo the Angels, according to a report from Jason Ruiz of the Long Beach Post. Details are scant at the moment, but it seems the pitch involves a waterfront ballpark lot. Long Beach mayor Robert Garcia acknowledged having “approached the Angels” to open a dialogue on a possible move. Long Beach has a history with the Halos, including some serious dalliances in the past. For the time being, the club is still under contract to remain in Anaheim through at least 2020. Long-term talks to stay in Angels Stadium are ongoing, with some recent warming of relations but plenty of uncertainty overall.
  • While a spring outing won’t be mistaken for the real thing, it was nevertheless fascinating to observe how MLB newcomer Yusei Kikuchi fared in his first game appearance in Mariners duds. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports, the initial showing was fairly impressive. Kikuchi managed to induce a ghastly swinging strikeout from none other than Joey Votto, who afterward praised the “potential” (and relative rarity) of Kikuchi’s “very good” and “very surprising” curve. Seattle manager Scott Servais felt his new workhorse “was outstanding for the first time out there.” The M’s committed at least four years and $56MM to Kikuchi, a significant outlay for a club that spent the winter focusing on the near-future (2020 and beyond) rather than the immediate future (the coming season). His ability to translate his success in Japan’s top league to the majors will factor heavily into the Seattle organization’s ability to rebound quickly into full competitiveness.

Clayton Kershaw Battling Shoulder Issue

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FEBRUARY 25, 6:19pm: Kershaw tried to play catch today but “didn’t feel great,” Roberts told reports including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (via Twitter), Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link), and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (also on Twitter). The organization still doesn’t have plans for an MRI and will wait at least a few more days before allowing Kershaw to attempt throwing again.

“It’s not ideal,” Roberts acknowledged. “You’re hoping when he picks up a ball that he comes out of it feeling better. So obviously it’s not ideal. But we’ll deal with whatever comes our way.”

FEBRUARY 24, 9:50pm: Kershaw suggests the shoulder discomfort may stem from an attempt to add velocity this spring, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. No MRI was taken, but since being shut down Kershaw has been taking anti-inflammatories to improve the feeling in his shoulder, which appears to be effective. The plan is to have Kershaw resume his throwing activities on Monday.

12:54pm: Roberts provided some more details on Kershaw’s condition today, telling reporters (including Castillo and The Athletic’s Pedro Moura) that the issue is with Kershaw’s throwing shoulder.  The southpaw has been working to increase his velocity this offseason, which Roberts speculated as a possible contributor to the soreness.  There doesn’t appear to be any major concern about Kershaw, as Roberts said the hurler won’t be undergoing an MRI and is still expected to throw again within a few days’ time.  Kershaw is still expected to be on the mound for the Dodgers on Opening Day.

FEBRUARY 22: The Dodgers have shut down star hurler Clayton Kershaw indefinitely, manager Dave Roberts tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The venerable southpaw is dealing with an unspecified health issue that Roberts would describe only as an “arm kind of thing.”

Initial signals from the organization are that there’s nothing to worry about at this point. Kershaw says he’s “just going to take a few days right now” and adds that he expects to resume throwing in short order, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County-Register tweets.

In Roberts’s view, too, this is just an early pause “to just kind of step away, give him a couple days.” That said, he acknowledged that he “can’t say right now” just when Kershaw will be ready to ramp back up.

Clearly, there’s no reason to rush to judgment about what might be going on here. Given Kershaw’s recent health history, there’s also some reason for added concern. Both men were rather circumspect about the underlying issue, declining to clarify whether Kershaw’s prior back and shoulder problems were involved. For the time being, then, we’ll just have to wait to see how things progress and await further word.

Bryce Harper Expected To Make Decision This Week

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12:35pm: Harper’s decision is expected to come this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. At the moment, the only three teams in the mix for him are the Phillies, Dodgers and Giants.

10:00am: The Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still on a shorter-term pact, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Harper and agent Scott Boras are still eyeing a long-term deal. Mark Feisand of MLB.com tweets that the Phillies are the only team currently negotiating a “true” long-term deal with Harper and agent Boras. The Giants, like the Dodgers, are still only interested at shorter terms than the 10-year offer Philadelphia is reportedly willing to put on the table.

7:38am: The Dodgers have jumped back into the Bryce Harper bidding and held a meeting with him as recently as last night, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Dodgers officials, including manager Dave Roberts, were seen in Las Vegas to meet with Harper. Per Jeff Passan and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN (Twitter links), the Dodgers re-engaged with Harper’s camp two weeks ago, although at the time, they were still hoping to secure Harper on a shorter-term pact. Harper, however, has been seeking at least a 10-year deal and has not budged from that thinking, Passan notes.

While there has not been any firm indication that the Dodgers are now willing to put forth a decade-long offer (or longer), the meeting is nonetheless quite notable at this juncture in Harper’s free-agent saga. Over the weekend, Phillies owner John Middleton also visited Harper in his home city, and reports at the time indicated that there was optimism surrounding the possibility of finalizing a 10-year deal with Harper as soon as tonight. That could still prove to true, but the question for many onlookers had been whether the Phillies were bidding against themselves. That no longer appears to be the case, as the Vegas meeting between the Dodgers and Harper suggests a rather sincere level of interest on their end.

Los Angeles has already added one big-ticket outfield item this winter, signing A.J. Pollock to a four-year deal worth $55MM, and bringing Harper aboard would give them a new right fielder to go along with their new-look center fielder. It’d also muddy the outfield mix a bit, leaving only one spot with Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger in need of at-bats there. Bellinger could also see time at first base, of course, although that would come at the cost of playing time for 2018 breakout slugger Max Muncy.

That said, the Dodgers are never ones to shy away from cultivating extreme levels of depth, and bringing Harper into the fold would create an extraordinarily deep mix of offensive options for Roberts. Of course, the Dodgers have also reportedly explored deals involving Pederson this winter as well, and signing Harper could also prove to be a harbinger for the trade of another outfielder.

The Dodgers already traded away Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood in what looked at the time to be a trade that opened both roster space and luxury tax breathing room for a possible Harper addition, but the only notable signing they’ve made since that swap was Pollock’s four-year pact. Adding Harper would definitively skyrocket the Dodgers into luxury tax territory, as they’re already only about $4MM shy of that threshold, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Dbacks, Tomas, Giants, Ferguson

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Dodgers Chairman Mark Walter asserts no directive came from ownership to keep the Dodgers’ payroll under the luxury tax, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The decision-making is trusted entirely to team president Stan Kasten and president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman, who kept the Dodgers under the tax line last season and have thus far done the same this winter. Kasten defended the Dodgers’ spending last month at their annual FanFest, reminding listeners that the Dodgers are among the biggest spenders in the league, while touting the incentives available for teams who stay under the tax. In the aggregate, the Dodgers seem united in their organizational philosophy, taking what’s become the popular position league-wide, that while spending beyond the tax line is, in theory, worthwhile under certain circumstances, the prudent path is to remain under the tax line whenever possible. The qualifier the Dodgers can add here, is that it’s prudent for them because they continue to win their division. With 6 straight division titles and a seventh in the offing (or so say projections), spending beyond the tax line could be viewed as a form of gluttony. To their point, the Dodgers have made strides to improve their club with the additions of A.J. Pollock, Joe Kelly and Russell Martin. Still, their abstention from the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper sweepstakes continues to needle some people outside the organization, prompting these kinds of rebuttals from Dodger leadership. Now, let’s check in on some player news from the NL West…

  • Yasmany Tomas had a disappointing 2018 that saw his removal from the Diamondbacks 40-man roster as he languished the entire season at Triple A, his first season without a major league appearance since 2015 when he made the trip stateside. It may appear particularly grim from the outside, but Tomas views last season as one of his more productive years, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Regardless of how you view Tomas’ 2018 – a year in which he hit just .262/.280/.465 in Triple A – Tomas has a legitimate opportunity to make the Arizona roster. If he can provide enough defense at first and/or in the outfield corners, he (theoretically) fits nicely as a right-handed option to Jake Lamb at first. His power output as never been at issue, as Tomas has slugged wherever he’s been, but it’s every other aspect of the game that will make-or-break the 28-year-old’s shot at the big leagues.
  • Giants Rule 5 draft selection Drew Ferguson is more analytically-focused than your typical outfield prospect, writes the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman. To get a better gauge on flyball trajectories, Ferguson studies wind speed, park dimensions and surface temperatures to prepare. He is studious, no doubt, but sticking with the Giants all season long is the challenge he faces. The 26-year-old will need to stay on the active roster or the injured list or else be returned to the Astros, who drafted him in the 19th round in 2015. Ferguson made it as far as Triple A in each of the last two seasons for Houston, where in 2018 he hit .305/.436/.429. After impressing with an overall batting line of .297/.393/.455. across four minor league seasons, Ferguson should get a longer leash in San Francisco, who hopes to deploy him as a right-handed complement for Stevan Duggar. Ferguson faces competition from a broad if not very deep group that includes Cameron Maybin, Mac Williamson, Gerardo Parra, Yangervis Solarte, Chris Shaw, Austin Slater, Craig Gentry, Mike Gerber and John Andreoli. At present, the Giants not only have an open competition for backup roles, but the starting jobs in both corners are up for grabs as well, providing Ferguson more than a fair shake to make the team. 

Don Newcombe Passes Away

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Dodgers legend Don Newcombe has died at 92 years of age, according to a team announcement. MLBTR extends its best wishes to his family and friends.

Newcombe was revered around the game as one of its greatest ambassadors. His connection with the Dodgers organization stretched back to his playing days alongside Jackie Robinson and other Brooklyn legends. It continued for decades thereafter, with Newcombe’s regal presence becoming a Dodger Stadium institution.

In his playing days, Newcombe exhibited immense talent and was at times among the very best players in the game. He was voted the National League Rookie of the Year in 1949 and received both the Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards in 1956.

After emerging as a force on the mound, Newcombe lost two prime seasons to the Korean War and struggled a bit upon his return. But he rebounded to turn in his greatest-ever campaign in ’56, when he pitched to a 3.06 ERA in 268 innings. All told, Newcombe threw 2,154 2/3 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with the Dodgers, Reds, and Indians.

“Newk” was also an accomplished hitter, with a lifetime .271/.338/.367 batting line and 15 home runs in nearly a thousand MLB plate appearances. Remarkably, he even turned in part of a season as an outfielder/first baseman in Japan at the end of his career, slashing .262/.316/.473 and launching a dozen long balls in 301 plate appearances for the Chunichi Dragons.

Newcombe only spent a brief portion of his playing career in Los Angeles, as he was dealt to Cincinnati not long after the Dodgers completed their coast-to-coast move. After achieving sobriety, though, he returned to the L.A. organization, where he helped others battling substance abuse issues and — in the words of club president Stan Kasten — provided “endless advice and leadership” to Dodgers players.

NL Health Notes: Wieck, Seager, Arrieta, Eickhoff

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Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.

As we send our best wishes to Wieck for a cancer-free future, we’ll cover some other health matters from the National League …

  • President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the Dodgers are quite encouraged by the progress of shortstop Corey Seager in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter. It’s “a best-case to this point,” in fact, which certainly paints a hopeful picture. Seager went under the knife at the end of April last year, so he’s about ten weeks shy of being a full year removed from the procedure. The hope remains that Seager will be prepared for Opening Day, manager Dave Roberts indicated yesterday (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter), though it stands to reason that the club will take a cautious path before fully unleashing the young star.
  • Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
  • Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.
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