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2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

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With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

Dodgers Release Adam Liberatore

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The Dodgers have released left-handed reliever Adam Liberatore, as first reflected on the MLB.com transactions page. Liberatore was designated for assignment last week after the Dodgers acquired Ryan Madson from the Nationals.

Liberatore, 31, enjoyed an excellent season with the 2016 Dodgers but has since been slowed by injury troubles — most notably a forearm strain that cost him much of the 2017 season. He’s tallied 13 big league innings in 2018 with a quality 2.77 ERA and a dozen strikeouts, though he also issued eight walks in that time and had some struggles in Triple-A Oklahoma City (5.19 ERA, 17-to-6 K/BB ratio, two hit batters in 17 1/3 innings).

At his best in 2016, Liberatore gave the Dodgers 42 2/3 frames of 3.38 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 38.9 percent ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he yielded only two long balls that year. He’s lost a couple of ticks off his fastball since that ’16 season, averaging 90.9 mph on his heater in his limited sample of big league innings this year, but Liberatore was still characteristically tough on left-handed opponents. Throughout his career, lefties have batted just .204/.294/.311 against him through 188 plate appearances.

Notably, Liberatore was on the minor league disabled list due to a knee issue at the time of his DFA, which explains the decision to release him rather than pass him through outright waivers. (Injured players cannot be passed through outright waivers during the season.) It’s common in these instances for the player to re-sign with his previous organization, though Liberatore will now have the ability to sign with any team.

Dodgers Pursued Adrian Beltre Before Revocable Waiver Deadline

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The Dodgers pursued Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre in advance of the recent revocable waiver deadline, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (and on Twitter). A lack of interest — on the part of both the Texas organization and its veteran star — evidently scuttled talks between the clubs.

With full no-trade protection, Beltre controlled his own destiny. He was never formally presented with a deal for a yay or nay, though that simply isn’t how he and his long-time employer handled the matter. Rather, both GM Jon Daniels and Beltre labeled it a mutual decision not to pursue a trade.

For Beltre, passing on the opportunity meant missing out on a chance to serve as a reserve for his former team in Los Angeles — a role that ultimately was filled through the acquisition of David Freese. That would have meant a shot at a deep postseason run, it still wasn’t enough to pique Beltre’s interest. He reiterated yet again that he wishes to wrap up his playing career with the Rangers.

Where this situation is most interesting is in the evident regard both Beltre and the Rangers front office showed for one another. Beltre says he’d only have been interested in a deal if “it was a perfect situation for me and the organization.”

Daniels said that the Rangers would not have stood to recoup much in the way of a return (in terms of prospects and/or cost savings). He explained: “If [Beltre] had wanted to push for a trade, we would have honored that; for him to not to have done so says a lot about his relationship with the fans and his teammates. That piece of it, I’m in awe of.”

As Grant notes, it’s a rather unusual situation in several regards. While it’s still unclear whether Beltre will play another season, and if so whether it would be with the Rangers, this episode certainly makes it appear more likely that team and player will remain united from this point forward.

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Buehler, Stripling, Urias, Rivera

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After pitching in his sixth minor league rehab outing on Saturday, Adam Wainwright could be back in the Cardinals rotation sometime this week, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The former ace has been limited to just four starts and 18 innings in 2018 due to three separate DL stints, the latter two for right elbow inflammation.  During this rehab stint, however, Wainwright has seemingly gotten on track, tossing 17 shutout innings over his six appearances.  While the longtime Cardinal can add some experience to a young St. Louis rotation, it has been some time since Wainwright has exhibited his old front-of-the-rotation form, as injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued the veteran over the last four seasons.

Here are some more injury updates from around the big leagues…

  • Walker Buehler will receive a precautionary x-ray on his left foot following today’s start, the Dodgers told reporters (including J.P. Hoonstra of the Southern California News Group).  It isn’t clear how or when Buehler suffered the apparent injury, though he did see some extra action on the basepaths after hitting two singles today.  The rookie right-hander has been outstanding in his first extended stint in the majors, posting a 2.92 ERA, 9.89 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, and a 48.5% grounder rate over 104 2/3 innings, including today’s quality start against the Diamondbacks.  It isn’t known how serious this injury could be, though losing Buehler would obviously be a blow to the Dodgers as they push for another NL West title.
  • The Dodgers should be getting another arm soon in Ross Stripling, who told the L.A. Times’ Bill Shaikin (Twitter link) and other media that he is targeting next weekend for his return from the disabled list.  Stripling has been sidelined since mid-August due to a sore back, and has been preparing for multiple roles, as he said the Dodgers want him to be capable of either starting or working as a multi-inning reliever.  Despite an outstanding first half as a starter that earned him an All-Star berth, Stripling had been moved to the bullpen just prior to his injury, as the Dodgers had a glut of rotation options and a need for help in their struggling relief corps.
  • The news isn’t as good for Julio Urias, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters that “I don’t know when [Urias is] going to pitch again” this season.  Urias underwent anterior capsule surgery in June 2017 and hasn’t been back to the majors since, though Roberts and the team had hoped that he could potentially make a September return as a reliever.  In Urias’ most recent minor league rehab outing, however, he was removed after reaching his pitch count after just three batters faced.  “We said from the beginning that when he’s right physically and performance-wise, then he’ll come [back to the majors].  If either of those things doesn’t happen, then it doesn’t make sense for us or him,” Roberts said.
  • The Mets have shut down infielder T.J. Rivera for the season, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports.  Rivera underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2017, and only played in six minor league rehab games in July before suffering a setback in the form of a right elbow sprain.  Over 106 games and 344 PA for the Mets in 2016-17, Rivera hit .304/.335/.445 with eight homers while seeing significant time as a fill-in at first, second, and third base.  As DiComo notes, however, Rivera could face a tough path back to the big league roster in the spring, as other utility infield options have passed him on the depth chart.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/2/18

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contract of catcher Rocky Gale from Triple-A Oklahoma City and moved right-hander Brock Stewart (right oblique strain) to the 60-day disabled list. Gale, whom the Dodgers signed to a minor league contract last offseason, hit .281/.305/.383 in 318 plate appearances with Okahoma City this year. The 30-year-old previously saw MLB action with the Padres in 2015 and ’17, though he only totaled a combined 20 PAs in those stints.
  • The Braves have selected infielder Ryan Flaherty from Triple-A Gwinnett and placed outfielder Michael Reed (left lower back strain) on the 60-day DL, per a team announcement. Flaherty’s back in Atlanta not long after it outrighted him Aug. 23. The veteran has struggled across 172 PAs this season as a member of the Braves, with whom he has hit .222/.298/.301.

Heyman’s Latest: Machado, Yanks, Tribe, Harper, Realmuto, Braves, Mauer

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Dodgers pending free agent Manny Machado has made it known he prefers shortstop, but the former Baltimore third baseman would return to the hot corner “for the right team,” Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. A willingness to play third certainly won’t hurt Machado on the open market, where he’s expected to sign one of the richest contracts ever, as it could encourage more teams to get involved in the bidding. Machado prefers to sign with the Yankees, Heyman relays, which jibes with a previous report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The Yankees already have an excellent shortstop in Didi Gregorius and a big-hitting rookie third basemen in Miguel Andujar, but their presences didn’t prevent the team from pursuing Machado at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline. Gregorius is only under contract for another year, moreover, while Machado is a much better defender at third than Andujar. Speculatively, if the Yankees sign Machado and extend Gregorius, perhaps they’d move Andujar to first base (where they haven’t gotten much production this year) or use him as trade bait to acquire pitching.

More rumblings from Heyman…

  • The Indians were the most aggressive pursuers of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper at the non-waiver trade deadline in July, according to Heyman. However, the Indians were unwilling to trade high-end pitching prospect Triston McKenzie for Harper – who’ll be a free agent at season’s end – and general manager Mike Rizzo didn’t want to deal Harper anyhow. Expectations are that the Rizzo-led Nats will do their best to re-sign Harper, Heyman suggests.
  • There isn’t much optimism around baseball that the Marlins will be able to extend star catcher J.T. Realmuto, reports Heyman, who writes that he “apparently remains a target” of the NL East rival Braves. Atlanta extended catcher Tyler Flowers earlier this week, but only for a guaranteed $6MM over two years. Realmuto is also controllable for the next two seasons, and given that the Marlins won’t contend during that span, it seems like a strong bet that they’ll trade the 27-year-old if they’re unable to extend him.
  • Twins icon and pending free agent Joe Mauer is uninterested in playing elsewhere, per Heyman, who adds that it’s believed Minnesota would welcome the first baseman back in 2019. The question is whether the St. Paul native will choose to play next year, which would be his age-36 season. Mauer’s now in the final weeks of the franchise-record eight-year, $184MM extension he signed as a superstar catcher in 2010. The deal hasn’t quite worked out as hoped, though, thanks in part to injuries and a decline in production. Mauer has posted league-average offensive numbers over 444 PAs this year, with a .278/.350/.379 line (99 wRC+).
  • The Brewers finished second to the NL Central rival Cardinals in the race to sign then-free agent Miles Mikolas last winter, Heyman reports. A former Ranger and Padre, Mikolas returned stateside after a couple seasons in Japan, joining the Cardinals on a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee. That contract has been a steal for St. Louis, which has seen the 30-year-old Mikolas turn in 167 innings of 2.96 ERA/3.43 FIP ball this season.

NL Notes: Rockies, Ottavino, Cubs, Dodgers

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Here’s the latest on a few National League teams:

  • Pending free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino hopes to stay with the Rockies, but the two sides have not discussed a new contract, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Ottavino has been a solid reliever for most of his Rockies tenure, which began in 2012, but he has especially effective in 2018. Playing his age-32 season, Ottavino has logged a superb 2.08 ERA with 13.15 K/9 against 4.15 BB/9 across 65 innings, and that production may price him out of Colorado. With Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee and Mike Dunn set to make a combined $42MM in 2019, the Rockies already have significant money tied up next year’s bullpen. Unfortunately for the Rockies, that big-money quartet has been a colossal disappointment this season.
  • The Cubs placed outfielder Jason Heyward (right hamstring) on the disabled list Friday, and his absence appears likely to affect their infield picture, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explains. Given that third baseman Kris Bryant is capable of playing the outfield, he may see quite a bit of time in the grass during Heyward’s absence, per Wittenmyer. That would open up the hot corner for middle infielder Javier Baez, while Addison Russell would handle shortstop and Daniel Murphy would stay at second base. Heyward, meanwhile, may miss the majority of September, Wittenmyer suggests. After a rough stretch from 2016-17, Heyward has posted something of a bounce-back season this year, having hit .275/.342/.399 (100 wRC+) with 2.2 fWAR in 451 plate appearances.
  • Dodgers reliever Erik Goeddel is done for the season, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Goeddel was only able to take the mound twice last month, most recently on Aug. 15, because of right elbow issues. A late-May waiver pickup from Seattle, Goeddel did good work over 29 1/3 innings with LA this year, recording a 3.38 ERA ball with 35 strikeouts against 15 walks.

Phillies Designate Jesmuel Valentin

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The Phillies have designated infielder Jesmuel Valdin for assignment, per a club announcement. The move was made in order to clear room for Pedro Florimon, who was activated from the 60-day disabled list.

Valentin, originally drafted by the Dodgers, has been with the Phillies organization since 2014. He’s played both second and third base in the minor leagues, and earned his first taste of MLB action this season after batting .240/.346/.341 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. That batting line came with a pair of homers and a trio of steals.

His debut hasn’t gone well. Valentin has struck out at a 27.0% clip across 89 major-league plate appearances and mustered only a .177/.258/.304 line. Fangraphs doesn’t care much for him defensively, either, as evidenced by his -1.7 rating in that area of gameplay. With little value in the field and a 52 wRC+ during his first MLB showing, Valentin will enter the waiver wire and be available to be claimed by any rival club.

August 31st Trade Deadline Recap

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A flurry of activity came yesterday in advance of the deadline to acquire postseason-eligible players via trade. In case you weren’t able to keep track of it all, here’s a roundup of the swaps made by MLB organizations on August 31st, 2018, sorted by the team on the acquiring end of the major-leaguer involved.

AL West

AL Central

  • The Indians acquired Josh Donaldson from the Blue Jays. Toronto will send $2.7MM to Cleveland as well, and they’ll get back a player to be named later, the quality of which will be dependent upon how Donaldson’s health situation progresses.

AL East

  • The Yankees took Adeiny Hechavarria off the Pirates’ hands in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. It’s not yet known how much cash the Bucs will chip in to help pay the ~$1MM still owed to Hechavarria.
  • The Yankees also pried Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. San Francisco gets infield prospect Abiatal Avelino and right-handed pitching prospect Juan De Paula.

NL West

NL Central

NL East

  • (No trades)

Dodgers Acquire David Freese

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The Dodgers have acquired David Freese in a swap with the Pirates, as first reported by Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Infielder Jesus Valdez goes to Pittsburgh in the deal, per a club announcement.

While we’re learning about this after the deadline for players to be acquired with postseason eligibility, it stands to reason that the sides completed the deal beforehand. If so, Freese will be able to appear in the playoffs this year, though there’s no assurance he’ll command a roster spot if and when the time comes.

Of course, no small part of Freese’s stature as a player comes from his prior postseason heroics. Beyond the memorable moments themselves, he’s a .282/.357/.517 hitter in 196 playoff plate appearances.

True, Freese hasn’t been in such a situation since way back in 2014. But he has continued to turn in solid campaigns since. This year, he’s slashing a sturdy .283/.337/.447 in 261 plate appearances for the Bucs. Freese has actually been a bit better against righties this year, but has been a hundred OPS points better against lefties over his career.

Freese becomes the third right-handed-hitting infielder picked up by the Dodgers this summer, joining Manny Machado and Brian Dozier. He won’t likely see as much time as that middle-infield pairing; rather, he’ll presumably function as a bench bat against lefties.

In Valdez, the Pirates get a 20-year-old who is in his debut season in the Dominican Summer League. He has played all over the infield, mostly on the left side, while hitting .230/.343/.412 with six home runs and 16 steals in 242 plate appearances.

Freese is earning $4.25MM this year, about $700K of which remains to be paid. He’s also controllable for 2019 via a $6MM club option that comes with a $500K buyout. The teams’ announcements make no mention of any money changing hands in the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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