All 12 Players Reject Qualifying Offer
Last Monday, 12 players received one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offers. Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, James Shields, Russell Martin, Nelson Cruz, David Robertson, Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano, Melky Cabrera and Michael Cuddyer were all on the receiving end of the offer. The deadline to accept or reject the offer is today at 4pm CT.
A quick primer for those who are unfamiliar: Baseball’s newest collective bargaining agreement did away with the old Type A/B designations for free agent draft pick compensation. The newer system, which is now in its third year, allows teams to make qualifying offers to a player that has spent the entire season with that organization (i.e. players traded midseason are ineligible). That offer is set at the average salary of baseball’s 125 highest-paid players. Should the player reject, a new team will be required to forfeit its top unprotected pick to sign that player (the top 11 picks of this year’s draft are protected). His former team then receives a comp pick at the end of the first round. To this point, none of the 22 players to receive a QO have accepted.
The expectation is that most of the players who received the QO, with the possible exception of Cuddyer, will reject. We’ll keep track of the players that reject the QO here…
- Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweets that no player has accepted this year’s qualifying offer.
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports that Martinez has rejected the qualifying offer (Twitter link).
- Robertson has turned down the Yankees’ qualifying offer, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network (Twitter link).
- Cuddyer, of course, has essentially rejected his qualifying offer by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Mets.
Earlier Updates
- Ramirez has rejected the Dodgers‘ QO, Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweets. As perhaps the top position player on this year’s open market, the move comes as little surprise. Ramirez figures to seek a contract north of $100MM+ as a free agent.
- Santana will reject the Braves‘ qualifying offer and search for a multi-year deal on the open market, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The move was widely expected after Santana enjoyed a solid season with the Braves. As he showed last winter, even if the market doesn’t materialize for him in the form of a multi-year deal, a one-year offer at or near the value of a QO is still attainable, so there’s little downside in trying to cash in.
- Both Sandoval and Martin have reportedly rejected their QOs prior to today’s deadline. Sandoval rejected his in the middle of last week, while news of Martin rejecting came last night.
Dodgers Notes: Outfielders, Payroll Flexibility
Here’s the latest from the Dodgers.
- The Dodgers are aggressively marketing Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in a series of tweets (one, two, three). The club is swimming in depth with Yasiel Puig, Scott Van Slyke, and Joc Pederson also in the mix for big league reps. L.A. is willing to kick in significant money depending on the return. Some teams are interested in the left-handed bats, while Kemp is drawing wide interest. Puig is “not in play.”
- While the Dodgers are known for their big market bullying, the new sheriffs in town – Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi, and Josh Byrnes – will be focused on reining in payroll, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. The roster has inflexible components, which is why the club is continuing to shop their outfielders. If payroll comes in around $240MM again, the Dodgers will have a luxury tax bill in the $20MM range. With fans excited about the team and the TV contract with Time-Warner Cable finalized, the era of blank-check spending is probably at an end.
Poll: Who Will Sign Russell Martin?
Earlier today, we learned that free agent catcher Russell Martin will meet with four teams – the Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. In fact, he’s already met with Chicago. Other clubs may become involved in the bidding, but this is the initial group upon which to focus. Martin’s price is expected to soar due to a dearth of catcher talent on the market.
Initially, it appeared that the Pirates might pull out all the stops to re-sign Martin. The club is thin at catcher with Tony Sanchez and Chris Stewart occupying the top of the depth chart. While the need for Martin is obvious, the ever-increasing rumored cost might push them out of the market.
The Cubs and Dodgers are a better financial fit, since we know both teams can afford Martin at any reasonable cost. They have a decent internal options – Wellington Castillo for the Cubs and A.J. Ellis for the Dodgers – so they’re not desperate for a backstop in the same way as the Pirates. The Cubs recently dismissed a well-regarded manager to hire Joe Maddon, so a similar move at catcher is easy to picture. The Dodgers are supposed to be more financially responsible with Andrew Friedman at the reins. We’ll see if and how that affects their pursuit of Martin.
From the outside, the Blue Jays look like a dark horse candidate, although catcher has been an area of concern since they traded away prospect Travis d’Arnaud. Dioner Navarro and Josh Thole are currently under contract to man the position, but neither player is close to Martin’s talent level.
Of course, the infamous mystery team could rear its head. A few clubs who could conceivably join the fray include the Angels, Tigers, Rangers, Mariners, White Sox, and Nationals.
Who Will Sign Russell Martin?
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Chicago Cubs 45% (13,854)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 22% (6,698)
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Pittsburgh Pirates 15% (4,641)
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Toronto Blue Jays 12% (3,795)
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Other 5% (1,590)
Total votes: 30,578
West Notes: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Kennedy
The Dodgers‘ new front office led by Andrew Friedman is perceived as likely to be statistically driven, but new GM Farhan Zaidi says the Dodgers need to excel at all methods of evaluation, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. “We need to be the best at everything,” says Zaidi. “I don’t think we’re in a position to make trade-offs of saying we’re a stat organization or a scouting organization.” Zaidi adds that he expects decision-making in Los Angeles to be collaborative. He, Friedman and senior vice president Josh Byrnes will all engage in talks with agents and with other teams. Here are more notes from the West divisions.
- On Thursday, Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall chatted with fans on Twitter, and the results are available in a single document at MLB.com. Hall says starting pitching will be the team’s top priority this winter, and he adds that the Diamondbacks hope to retain infielder Jordan Pacheco despite outrighting him this week. Arizona claimed Pacheco from the Rockies in June, and he hit .272/.298/.321 in 85 plate appearances down the stretch.
- Ian Kennedy had a bounce-back season in 2014 with the Padres and now is a top trade asset, writes Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. A move out of Arizona and into a friendlier ballpark was one factor (particularly given Kennedy’s fly ball tendencies), but Sanders feels pitching coach Darren Balsley’s work with Kennedy might have been just as crucial. Balsey’s mechanical changes helped Kennedy boost his velocity — Kennedy’s average fastball increased from 90.3MPH to 91.8MPH last season. Sanders suggests that one alternative to a trade might be for the Padres to extend the reliable Kennedy rather than Andrew Cashner, who had neck, shoulder and elbow issues in 2014.
Russell Martin To Meet With Four Teams
It is early in the free agent process, but the Cubs have already met with top backstop Russell Martin, Bruce Levine reports for CBS Chicago. Martin is also expected to visit and undertake preliminary discussions with the Pirates, Dodgers, and Blue Jays, according to Levine. It is far from clear, of course, that Martin’s market will ultimately be limited to that group. After all, he figures to draw broad interest around the game.
Incumbent Cubs catcher Welington Castillo struggled with his offense and framing last year, and the big-market Cubs have money to spend, so it’s unsurprising they would have interest in Martin. In Los Angeles, catcher A.J. Ellis hit just .191/.323/.254 last season, and the Dodgers’ new saber-friendly front office will likely place a high value on Martin, particularly given his work behind the plate. The Jays have had internal discussions about pursuing Martin and making current starting catcher Dioner Navarro their primary DH.
Quick Hits: Epstein, Butler, Billingsley
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told Mully and Hanley of 670 The Score (via Levine) that he is interested in having extension talks with president of baseball operations Theo Epstein. The 40-year-old executive joined the Cubs just over three years ago on a five-year deal. Here’s more from around the big leagues.
- The Royals are not ruling out the possibility of bringing back DH Billy Butler, reports Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. While Kansas City obviously did not value him at his $12.5MM option, and had hoped to give some DH time to Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez, Mellinger says that Butler’s play down the stretch and in the postseason has changed the club’s thinking. Of course, his .770 OPS over the season’s last 62 games was hardly world-beating production for a bat-only player, but it did hint that his previous excellence at the plate may still be found. Mellinger theorizes that Kansas City could be willing to guarantee Butler eight figures on a two-year deal, though the lifetime Royal would probably need to forego better offers to stay — which he did say was a possibility earlier in the year.
- Free agent righty Chad Billingsley has changed his representation to Octagon’s Steve Hilliard, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He had been a client of Dave Stewart, who of course has given up the business as part of his new career move. Billingsley, still only 30, has missed virtually all of the past two seasons with multiple elbow surgeries. In spite of his health struggles, Billingsley should draw plenty of interest as a buy-low candidate.
West Notes: Kapler, Gasparino, Tomas, Rangers, Angels
The Dodgers‘ front office shakeup isn’t over yet. As Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reported first, the Dodgers announced that they have hired Gabe Kapler as their farm director and Padres scouting director Billy Gasparino as their new director of amateur scouting (All Twitter links). Additionally, the team will hire Red Sox special assignment scout Galen Carr, per Saxon, though his role in the Dodgers’ front office is yet unreported. The Dodgers, of course, have already poached Andrew Friedman from the Rays (president of baseball ops) and Farhan Zaidi from the A’s (GM) in addition to hiring former Padres/D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes as their new senior VP of baseball ops. The new-look group is made up of some of the most respected executives from around the game.
Here’s more from the game’s Western divisions…
- On a conference call with Padres season-ticket holders last night, general manager A.J. Preller spoke candidly about the team’s interest in Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas (Twitter link): “We’ve had the chance to see Yasmany Tomas and we’re in the process of determining his value for the Padres. We’re in the game.” San Diego has been said to be one of the front-runners for Tomas, and he’d certainly provide the team with some much-needed offense if he lives up to the hype surrounding him.
- The Rangers will be on the lookout for a backup catcher to pair with Robinson Chirinos this offseason, writes MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. Sullivan looks at the crop of free agents and notes that A.J. Pierzynski, Gerald Laird and J.P. Arencibia have all played with the Rangers in the past, but he wonders if the team will spend a bit more money on a name like Nick Hundley rather than bringing in familiar faces.
- The Angels announced today that they have promoted Mike LaCassa to assistant director of player development and promoted Jonathan Strangio to manager of Major League Operations (Twitter link).
Free Agent Profile: Hanley Ramirez
The Manny Ramirez era in Los Angeles is long over, but Hanleywood has given the Dodgers plenty of lasting memories in recent years. Hanley Ramirez is now hitting the free agent market and whether he winds up back with the Dodgers or with someone else, he’s all but certain to get paid big bucks.
Strengths/Pros
Offensively, Ramirez rates as one of the highest-impact free agents available. Last season, Ramirez slashed .283/.369/.448 with 13 homers in 128 games for the Dodgers. His career track record is even stronger with a batting line of .300/.373/.500. There aren’t many shortstops who offer the kind of pop that Ramirez can, either. He has yet to hit less than ten homers in a campaign and that low point comes from a partial season of play (2011). Over the last nine years, Ramirez has averaged 21 homers per season.
Ramirez has never played in a particularly homer-friendly environment, but he still boasts strong career numbers. With the Dodgers, Ramirez posted a .299/.368/.506 line in his two-and-a-half seasons, numbers that are eerily similar to his career slash line. When stacking his 2014 wRC+ against this winter’s other free agents (I modified the free agent leaderboard constructed by Steve Adams to exclude players with options that were exercised, like Ben Zobrist and Denard Span), he rates third among qualified hitters with a 135 rating. That puts him ahead of guys like Melky Cabrera and just a hair behind the big bat of Nelson Cruz.
Ramirez turned in a 3.4 WAR this past season and a particularly strong 5.0 WAR in 2013. He was a massive offensive weapon for the Dodgers in 2013 with a wOBA of .446. His closer-to-mortal .362 wOBA in 2014 is still quite strong, also good for No. 3 on the aforementioned free agent leaderboard. For his career, he has offered better-than-average strikeout and walk rates (16.6% and 9.6%) and his walk rate of 10.9% this past season was actually a step up from his total body of work. Both UBR and BsR scored him as an above-average baserunner this past season and are fond his career body of work on the bases.
A three-time All-Star, he shines especially bright when compared to the rest of the crop at the shortstop position. After Ramirez, the next best options are Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie, and Asdrubal Cabrera. While all three are starter material, Ramirez clearly is of a different caliber and figures to out-earn all of them significantly in terms of average annual value and contract length.
Of course, Ramirez’s future might not be at shortstop. He also has 98 games of experience at third base to his credit, the bulk of which came in 2012 with the Marlins. The top of the third base market is healthier than at short, with options like Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley, but Ramirez offers the most offensive potential of the three. A team could sign Ramirez to play shortstop, for now, and shift him over to third base down the line depending on the needs and opportunities that come up.
Weaknesses/Cons
Ramirez’s health has been an issue for years now. He’s phenomenal when he’s on the field, but it’s hard to count on getting a full season out of him given his track record. We first saw the injury bug strike in 2011 where he played in just 92 games, and in 2013, Ramirez took the field in just 86 games, his lowest output since becoming a full-time player.
Ramirez first started having shoulder trouble in 2010 and it only got worse in 2011 when he injured himself trying to make a diving catch in August of that year, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. In 2013, he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed a month after undergoing surgery. When he got back on the field, his hamstring cost him significant time. This past season, Ramirez was held back by several injuries, including a strained oblique.
While there are tons of great things to say about Ramirez’s bat, his fielding is not at all on the same level. Ramirez’s -15.6 UZR/150 rating from this past season is atrocious and his -8.8 career mark is pretty ugly as well. Defensive runs saved tells the same story – he cost the Dodgers nine runs in 2014 and has a -77 tally for his career.
I mentioned the possibility of a shift from shortstop to third base as a positive in the previous section, but here’s the other (and, maybe, more realistic take): a club signing Ramirez to a multi-year pact will likely have to put him at third base at some point to try and cover up his defensive shortcomings. When you look at his history of poor defense and injuries and consider that he’s on the wrong side of 30 (he’ll be 31 by Opening Day), there’s little reason to believe it’ll get better.
Ramirez will most definitely turn down the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, meaning that any other club signing him will forfeit its top unprotected pick.
Personal
Ramirez was born and raised in the Dominican Republic and attended Adbentista High School. Ramirez is married with three children – two sons and a daughter. In the summer of 2013, his youngest son showed everyone that he has a gorgeous swing, just like his father (Vine link).
Market
The Dodgers and Ramirez were discussing an extension in the early part of the season, but the two sides agreed to table talks when they could not bridge a sizable gap. A return is not out of the question, but rival evaluators told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney in September that they were sensing that the Dodgers would offer Ramirez the QO with the expectation that he would decline, sign elsewhere, and net them draft compensation. Of course, the new regime in L.A. headed by Andrew Friedman might feel differently.
More recently, Ramirez has reportedly told teams that he’s willing to play a position other than shortstop, which should make clubs with third base needs and possibly corner outfield needs more open to adding him. However, some clubs might have reservations about signing him and simply dropping him into the outfield. After all, he’s never played a single game there in his pro career.
The Yankees might be the most obvious fit for Ramirez, but reports this week indicated that they weren’t likely to pursue many of the big-name free agents on the market. Of course, as Steve pointed out in the linked piece, that report mentioned many top free agents by name, but Ramirez’s name was absent. If the Yankees are willing to pay market price for Ramirez, they can slot him in at shortstop in the short-term and transition him over to third or a corner outfield spot later on in the contract.
The Mariners and Giants could enter the mix as well, with San Francisco looking at him as a third base or left field option. The Tigers might make sense from a need standpoint, but they have so many large contracts on the books looking forward that adding a significant deal for Ramirez might be tough. A reunion with the Red Sox might be possible since he is willing to play third, and they’ve reportedly already reached out to him. The White Sox have money to spend, few significant long-term contracts on the books and lack a clear long-term option at third base. The A’s are in need of a shortstop and with a lefty-heavy offense, Ramirez’s big right-handed bat would be a welcome addition, though it’s hard to see his salary fitting into the budget. The Mets also probably won’t spend the money necessary to sign Ramirez, but the need is there.
Expected Contract
Ramirez was reportedly asking for over $130MM in the spring give up a chance at testing the open market, presumably on a five- or six-year pact. Given the lucrative deals signed by Jacoby Ellsbury ($153MM) and Shin-Soo Choo ($130MM) last winter, an AAV of $20MM or more seems feasible for Ramirez, who offers major offensive production at a premium position.
Even when considering Ramirez’s spotty health record and weak glove, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t comes away as the highest paid positional player of the winter. Last winter, Ellsbury got a $153MM, seven-year pact, despite his own checkered injury history. I think Ramirez will approach that AAV with one less year, netting a six-year, $132MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Hire Farhan Zaidi, Josh Byrnes
THURSDAY: The Dodgers have announced the pair of signings. Zaidi will assume the role of general manager, while Byrnes has been named the senior vice president of baseball operations.
“It is very exciting for us to be able to add two exceptional, veteran baseball executives like Farhan and Josh,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in the press release. “Farhan’s primary focus will be the Major League team and player acquisitions while Josh will concentrate on the oversight of scouting and player development. However, they will both work closely with me on all aspects of baseball operations in our efforts to make the Dodgers’ front office and team the best it can possibly be.”
TUESDAY: The Dodgers will name former Athletics assistant GM Farhan Zaidi the team’s new general manager this week, according to a tweet from Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Zaidi, 37, had been with Oakland for ten years and was promoted just before last season.
The club is also set to add former Diamondbacks and Padres GM Josh Byrnes, Mark Saxon of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Though it is not yet known what position he will hold, his addition is a “done deal,” per Saxon.
Combined, the addition of the well-regarded Zaidi and experienced Byrnes represent major additions to the front office of new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
Zaidi’s former boss, Billy Beane, credits him with a brilliant and creative mind, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote in a profile. According to Slusser, Zaidi was instrumental in bringing Yoenis Cespedes to Oakland and in maximizing value through platoons.
A Muslim Canadian who grew up in the Philippines, it goes without saying that Zaidi does not have a typical background for a baseball executive. But his analytical background — he has an undergraduate degree from M.I.T. and a Ph.D. in behavioral economics from Cal-Berkeley — ultimately won him a chance with the A’s, and he never looked back. In spite of his background, Zaidi is known as a proponent of utilizing traditional scouting and focusing on tools in identifying talent.
White Sox Receiving Interest In Alexei Ramirez
The White Sox have received solid early trade interest in shortstop Alexei Ramirez, according to a report from Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com. Chicago has been contacted by the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers regarding the 33-year-old.
Ramirez has one year left on his deal at an affordable $10MM. He also comes with a $10MM option for 2016, which carries a $1MM buyout. Though he could not maintain his hot start to the year, Ramirez ended with a solid .273/.305/.408 slash to go with 15 home runs and 21 steals. A well-regarded defender, Ramirez compiled 4.1 rWAR and 3.3 fWAR.
Were the White Sox to part with Ramirez, the team would look for a one-year stopgap. The long-term solution, the team hopes, is working its way up through the system in the person of Tim Anderson. The 2013 first-rounder reached the Double-A level last year.