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Free Agent Profile: Ricky Nolasco

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2013 at 12:54pm CDT

As the team most likely to take on the $5.5MM remaining on Ricky Nolasco's contract, the Dodgers were seen as the trade market frontrunners leading up to their July 6th acquisition of the pitcher from the Marlins.  The Marlins failed to receive top-tier prospects, and even threw in international pool money for the Dodgers.  None of that came as a big surprise, not just because the Marlins like to save money, but because as ESPN's Keith Law put it, Nolasco was a "durable fourth starter type" who had a 3.85 ERA at the time.

USATSI_7392406

Free agency has a large "what have you done for me lately" element, and it seems that Nolasco's 2.07 ERA in 74 innings with the Dodgers has changed the conversation about him from salary dump to coveted potential top ten free agent.

Strengths/Pros

Nolasco won't turn 31 until December.  Comparable free agents like Ervin Santana and Scott Feldman are the same age, and these pitchers are young enough to justify a three-year deal.

One of Nolasco's biggest strengths is avoiding the free pass.  Since 2011, he's walked only 2.05 batters per nine innings, which ranks 14th among starting pitchers with at least 400 innings.  Five free agent starters have done better, the youngest of whom is Dan Haren, who turns 33 next week.  On a related note, Nolasco has authored four seasons in his career with a K/BB ratio above 3.5, including this one.  Only three free agent starters have a better K/BB ratio than Nolasco this year.

Nolasco also scores points for durability, as he'll have made at least 31 regular season starts in each of the last three seasons.  Only four other free agent starters will be able to make the same claim.  Says agent Matt Sosnick, "It's been my experience that guys get paid for being healthy consistently every year."

You may not buy into it, but Sosnick will also make the claim that finally getting out of Miami rejuvenated his client's career.  Nolasco's 2.07 ERA since July 6th ranks fifth in all of baseball, putting him in company with teammates Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw and former teammate Jose Fernandez (Jarred Cosart sneaks in there as well).  Sosnick adds, "When he pitches at home in front of his family in L.A., he's basically unhittable."

One key advantage Nolasco has to a comparable free agent starter like Santana is that Nolasco is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having been traded midseason.  In December 2012, after Nolasco became the Marlins' highest-paid player following a series of trades, Sosnick told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, "If he had his druthers, he would pitch for somebody other than the Marlins in 2013 and beyond."  Opening the season with the Marlins, however, ultimately gave Nolasco's free agent value a boost, as he doesn't have to worry about having draft pick compensation attached.

Weaknesses/Cons

There is a good case to be made that Nolasco is simply a 3.80 ERA type who had a nice 12-start run.  My ERA estimator of choice, SIERA, has him at 3.71 this year, as opposed to his actual 3.14 mark.  Nolasco has allowed 8.2 hits per nine innings in 2013, after allowing 10.4 in 2011-12.  Limiting hits isn't a skill if the pitcher can't do it year in and year out, despite Sosnick's "unhittable" comment.

Nolasco's strikeout rate this year is a workable 7.3 per nine innings, but it was 6.2 per nine from 2011-12.  He's currently sporting what would be the best home run rate of his career (0.77 per nine innings), but it's owed more to only 8.8% of his flyballs leaving the yard, rather than to a more reliable higher groundball rate.  Nolasco is a flyball pitcher, and moving forward should be expected to give up more home runs and hits perhaps with a lower strikeout rate.  

As far as the "getting out of Miami" boost to Nolasco's numbers, his groundball rate is up a tick, and he's in front of a better defense.  Still, the best bet is to pay for the innings and a 3.80 ERA.

Personal

Nolasco grew up rooting for the Dodgers in Rialto, California, and described the trade as a "dream come true" in a statement.  Nolasco, whose full name is Carlos Enrique, is close with his brother Dave, a former Brewers minor league pitcher.  During the offseason, Ricky can be found in the desert almost every weekend, camping with friends and driving sand rail dune buggies.

Market

Nolasco's statement upon his trade to the Dodgers also included the line, "I couldn't be more excited to play in front of my family and friends in Dodger Stadium during the season, and hopefully for many more seasons to come."  In other words, "I'm very interested in a contract extension, by the way."  The most likely scenario has to be a contract extension with the Dodgers before Nolasco hits the open market.  Nolasco has pitched well for the Dodgers and wants to stay, and he's got an extension-friendly agent in Sosnick.  Nolasco's apparent eagerness to pitch for the Dodgers may reduce his leverage, but he has already banked about $34MM in his career, mostly from a 2010 extension with the Marlins totaling $27MM.  He definitely came out several million ahead on that deal, as the Marlins might have eventually non-tendered him otherwise.  Already having a large measure of financial security restores some of Nolasco's leverage.

If the Dodgers and Nolasco can't find common ground, perhaps he'd first turn to other California teams like the Angels and Giants.  American League teams, however, could be wary of Nolasco, as he's an NL lifer.  The Phillies and Mets may be on the lookout for starting pitching, as well as the Indians if the AL isn't an issue.  The Giants, Rockies, Rangers, Padres, and Orioles had trade interest in Nolasco during the summer.

Expected Contract

An agent recently told me he focuses much more on years than average annual value, because teams and agents generally know the likely AAV range before they even begin negotiating.  Nolasco should have no problem finding three years; the big question is whether the Dodgers or another team will offer four.  Sosnick will probably begin there, explaining why his client is on par with Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle, and one of the best in a weak market.  Jackson, Buehrle, and Nolasco are all durable 200 inning types, but Jackson hit the market at 29 and brought the allure of a 93-94 mile per hour fastball.  Buehrle was two years older than Nolasco, but also had better career numbers.  Plus, Buehrle's four-year, $58MM contract was something of a fluke — the Marlins were reportedly the only team offering the fourth year, as they were in the midst of a new ballpark spending spree.  Then again, it only takes one team to guarantee that fourth year, making the Jackson contract Nolasco's likely ceiling.

An innings guy these days will probably require an AAV in the $10-13MM range.  Ultimately I believe Nolasco will sign a three-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Dodgers Nearing Deal With Alexander Guerrero

By Zachary Links | September 9, 2013 at 6:17pm CDT

6:17pm: The two sides are nearing a five-year, $32MM contract according to the latest update from Sanchez (on Twitter).

2:46pm: The Dodgers and Cuban infield prospect Alexander Guerrero are closing in a multi-year deal worth $32MM, industry sources tell Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.  The deal is expected to be between five and seven years and an official announcement is expected this week.

Guerrero probably projects as a second baseman in the majors since his range and first-step quickness aren't strong enough to stick at shortstop, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required).  The offensive-oriented infielder doesn't figure to be a premium talent, but his raw right-handed power has impressed clubs.

The Twins, Red Sox, and Braves have also been in the mix for Guerrero, but the Dodgers have long been the favorites to sign him.  The 26-year-old also garnered interest from the Reds along the way, but it's not clear how serious they were or if they were still in the mix towards the end.

In his final season in Cuba, Guerrero hit .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances for Las Tunas.  For the last five seasons, Guerrero has posted solid offensive numbers, though the Cuban league is known for inflated offensive numbers.  Badler says that Guerrero is likely ticketed for Double-A or Triple-A to start out.

Guerrero was cleared to sign with Major League Teams by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) over the weekend.  He defected from his native Cuba in January and has been a known quanitty for some time, so the Dodgers were quick to strike a deal once it was possible.

It remains to be seen what impact, if any, the signing will have on the Dodgers' pursuit of a second baseman this winter.  Of course, the Dodgers are viewed as the biggest threat to sign Robinson Cano away from the Yankees over the offseason.

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Alexander Guerrero Cleared To Sign With MLB Teams

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2013 at 10:06am CDT

Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero has been cleared to sign with Major League Teams by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported over the weekend (Twitter link). Dionisio Soldevila of ESPN Deportes agrees, adding that an official signing could come at any minute (also via Twitter).

Guerrero has been most heavily connected to the Dodgers, though initial reports that the two sides had agreed to a seven-year pact were premature. The 26-year-old has also been connected to the Twins and Braves over the past six weeks. In his tweet above, however, Wolfson doubts that the Twins will be the team to ultimately sign Guerrero. Soldevila adds, in a separate tweet, that the Dodgers are still the favorite.

As Ben Badler of Baseball America pointed out in a subscription-only scouting report in early August, interested parties likely view Guerrero as an offensive-oriented second baseman. Questions about his range and first-step quickness will likely prevent him from sticking at shortstop in the Majors, according to Badler, who added that raw right-handed power was Guerrero's best tool.

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Rosenthal On Angels, Gibson, LaRoche, Dodgers

By Zachary Links | September 8, 2013 at 11:08am CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brings us his latest edition of Full Count this weekend.  Let's take a look inside..

  • There's still a month to go in the regular season, but the Angels are already scouting pitchers they could go after in free agency or in trades.  The needs in the rotation will be less glaring if they re-sign Jason Vargas – that would give them a front four of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Garrett Richards, and Vargas.  The Halos nearly traded Howie Kendrick for a package headlined by the Dodgers' Zach Lee in July and they could pursue something similar with teams deep in young starters this offseason, like the Nationals and Mets.
  • A number of Diamondbacks players are frustrated with manager Kirk Gibson's changing lineups and they relate more with third base coach Matt Williams, but he could leave to manage the Nationals or another club once the season is through.  However, the D'Backs have no plans to replace Gibson with Williams or anyone else.
  • The first base free agent market will be thin this offseason with Justin Morneau, James Loney, and Mike Napoli headlining the class.  The trade market doesn't look much better, but it does have a few options.  Adam LaRoche of the Nationals figures to be among them as they look to move Ryan Zimmerman to first and Anthony Rendon to third.  The Mets' Ike Davis will probably be another and he could benefit from a move to a more hitter-friendly park.
  • The Dodgers will not lack rotation options next offseason – they'll try to re-sign Ricky Nolasco and they'll eventually get Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett back.  The team also has three minor league prospects in Lee, Ross Stripling, and Matt Magill, who figure to pitch at some point in 2014.  The good news is that the Dodgers should be deep enough to give them time to develop.
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Cafardo On Ruiz, Napoli, Hudson, Sizemore

By Zachary Links | September 8, 2013 at 8:54am CDT

In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are several top teams that will have surpluses in certain areas this offseason that will be second guessing whatever move they make.  In the case of the Dodgers, they have four strong outfielders in Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford.  One would imagine that Ethier, who is frequently in trade rumors, would be the one to go, but GM Ned Colletti could also give some thought to dealing Kemp if the right offer comes along.  Here's more from today's column..

  • After bouncing back from a slow start, catcher Carlos Ruiz is desirable again and the Phillies are more enthused about the idea of re-signing him.  That may prove to be difficult once Ruiz gets to the open market as he’d be a cheaper alternative to Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia and more consistent than Dioner Navarro.
  • According to Mike Napoli's agent Brian Grieper, there still haven't been contract talks with the Red Sox.  It appears they will play it out and decide about a qualifying offer.  One possibility is that they put Xander Bogaerts at third and Will Middlebrooks at first, taking Napoli out of the equation.
  • Tim Hudson, 38, wants to return from the ankle fracture he suffered in July.  Hudson, who should cleared for baseball activities by mid-December, will be a free agent but wants to stay in Atlanta.  It'll come down to the money for the veteran, who earned $9MM this season.
  • Grady Sizemore tried to get back playing this season, but he needs more time for his knees to heal. He'll likely be ready for a major league camp next spring and work out for teams this offseason to show he’s healthy.  If he looks OK, he’ll probably get a few teams interested.
  • Some still believe that it was a mistake for the Angels to only pay Mike Trout $510K this season and that he won't forget it when it comes time to work out a new deal with the club.
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California Notes: Zito, Colletti, Angels

By Mark Polishuk | September 2, 2013 at 8:24pm CDT

The Athletics moved into a tie for first place in the AL West with today's 4-2 victory over the Rangers.  Today's game was the first of six head-to-head matchups between Oakland and Texas in September, so it's very possible that we're in for another pennant race that goes right down to the last day between these two clubs.

Here's the latest baseball news out of the Golden State…

  • Barry Zito won't be designated for assignment or otherwise removed from the roster, Bruce Bochy told reporters, including Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com.  The Giants need to open two 40-man roster spaces to accommodate their September callups by tomorrow and Zito could've been a candidate given how poorly has had pitched since mid-May.  This cold streak may end Zito's tenure in San Francisco, as while the Giants obviously weren't going to pick up Zito's $18MM option for 2014, Baggarly notes the club could've pursued a new, less-expensive deal with the veteran lefty.
  • The Dodgers are known for spending freely but ESPN's Buster Olney illustrates (in an Insider-only piece) how general manager Ned Colletti has inexpensively added to his bullpen and bench depth.
  • The Brewers would appear to have gotten the better end of the 2012 deal that sent Zack Greinke to the Angels in exchange for Jean Segura and two minor league pitchers, but Halos GM Jerry Dipoto doesn't regret the trade. "I absolutely understand what the criteria was when we made the trade and why we made it," Dipoto says in an article by Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, noting that the club was leading the AL wild card race at the time and needed to bolster its rotation.
  • If the Red Sox can quickly return to contention after a disappointing season, could the Angels rebound from this year's problems to contend in 2014?  Grantland's Jonah Keri thinks it would be "a gigantic long shot," given the Angels' deeper roster problems and a lack of minor league talent following several ill-advised trades of prospects, such as the Segura deal.
  • From earlier today, MLBTR reported that Mike Zagurski opted out of his Athletics contract and was now a free agent.

MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post

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AL Central Notes: Yost, Iglesias, Sulbaran

By charliewilmoth | September 2, 2013 at 2:28pm CDT

Royals manager Ned Yost would like Major League Baseball to change its rules regarding September callups, Dick Kaegel and Kathleen Gier of MLB.com report. Teams who call up more players will have more tactical options than teams who call up fewer, so Yost would prefer to have teams limited to a specific number of players they can use each day, perhaps 28 to 30. Here are more notes from the AL Central.

  • Jose Iglesias is back in Boston after being sent from the Red Sox to the Tigers in the Jake Peavy deal, MLB.com's Jason Beck notes. New manager Jim Leyland is trying to help his new shortstop refine his play and become more consistent. "You don't want to take any of that aggressiveness and energy away," says Leyland. "You just have to make sure you channel it in the proper direction. I think it takes time to let that happen."
  • The Twins had a choice of players they could take as the PTBNL in the Drew Butera deal with the Dodgers, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. They eventually settled on 19-year-old lefty Miguel Sulbaran, who has pitched well as a starter in Class A this year. Sulbaran is undersized and may struggle as he ascends through the minors, but he still appears to be a very strong return for the Twins, given that Butera recently turned 30 and has only played in Triple-A in the Dodgers organization so far.
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Minor Moves: Rusty Ryal

By edcreech | September 1, 2013 at 3:20pm CDT

Here are Sunday's minor moves from around MLB:

  • The Angels have acquired Rusty Ryal from the Dodgers, per MLB.com's transactions page (h/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). Ryal, who last saw action in a MLB game in 2010 with the Diamondbacks, has produced a .265/.310/.359 slash line in 401 plate appearances (106 games) with Triple-A Albuquerque. The 30-year-old has played both corner outfield spots and all infield positions, except for shortstop, for the Isotopes this season.
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The Michael Young Trade: Reaction & Analysis

By edcreech | September 1, 2013 at 2:45pm CDT

The Dodgers made the final August trade of the season late last night acquiring Michael Young and cash from the Phillies for minor-league left-hander Rob Rasmussen. Here's the reaction and analysis from around baseball:

  • Dodgers manager Don Mattingly says Juan Uribe is still the team's starting third baseman and Young will see time at both corner infield positions, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told reporters, including ESPNLosAngeles.com's Mark Saxon, Young is willing to accept a lesser role, and the resulting diminished number of at-bats, because he wants another crack at a World Series ring. 
  • The Phillies would have been better served accepting the Yankees' offer of Double-A right-hander Tommy Kahnle and paying the remainder of Young's salary that was made prior to the July 31st Trade Deadline, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. disagreed with Heyman's assessment telling reporters, including CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury, "We like this guy (Rasmussen) more. The guys that we talked about with other teams had other issues. At the Trade Deadline we were not out of it completely. We were still trying to win games. Different circumstances. Now we’re out of it, basically."
  • The Dodgers paid too high of a price for a sub-replacement level player of no discernable value to a playoff team, opines Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated.
  • Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times has the opposite opinion writing there is no drawback, no downside when you add to a club's bench a veteran like Young, who is universally perceived as a great teammate.
  • MLB.com's Lyle Spencer agrees with Dilbeck tweeting Young is a great addition for the Dodgers on so many levels: clutch, tough, versatile, smart, and a winner.
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Dodgers Acquire Michael Young

By Aaron Steen | August 31, 2013 at 9:59pm CDT

One of the most popular names in trade rumors this summer is finally on the move, as the Phillies announced that they have traded Michael Young to the Dodgers in exchange for minor-league pitcher Rob Rasmussen. Philadelphia will also pay the Dodgers about $1.7MM – the amount the Phillies were still due to receive from the Rangers as part of their original trade for Young in December. Young reportedly waived his no-trade clause to make the deal a reality.

USATSI_7321141 (1)

A widely discussed trade target this summer, Young's name appeared regularly on MLBTR throughout July, but the Phillies opted to hold on to him as the deadline passed. The infielder reportedly sought to return to the Rangers, though we heard that the Red Sox were his second choice. Young was also connected with clubs such as the Yankees and the Orioles.

Though Young has spent the majority of his time in the field this year at third base, the Dodgers' incumbent third baseman, Juan Uribe, would appear to offer similar production to Young's .272/.333/.389 line in 2013. However, Young has long experience at every infield position excepting first base, so the Dodgers may opt to use him in a utility role.

Rasmussen, 24, was drafted in the second round by the Marlins in 2010. An undersized lefty with a tendency for wildness, he was promoted to Triple-A earlier in the season but was rocked to a 6.46 ERA in 54 1/3 innings, posting a 6.1 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9. However, he's been much better in his 81 1/3 innings this year at Double-A, where he owns a 2.55 ERA. Rasmussen was ranked as the 19th best prospect in the Astros system by Baseball America after the 2012 season before being traded to the Dodgers last December.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the deal on Twitter and was the first to report that Young waived his no-trade clause (Twitter link). Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times was the first to report that the Phillies received Rasmussen in the deal (Twitter link). ESPNLosAngeles' Mark Saxon first reported the amount of cash the Dodgers received (Twitter link).

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