Draft Retrospection: Dodgers Steal A Superstar
It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.
Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.
Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.
Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.
Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).
Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.
Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.
With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Promote Will Smith, Place Austin Barnes On 10-Day IL
The Dodgers have selected the contract of catching prospect Will Smith, per a club announcement. He’ll take the active roster spot of fellow backstop Austin Barnes, who’s headed to the 10-day injured list with a groin strain.
Smith, a former first-round draft pick, is known as a well-rounded overall performer behind the dish. He entered the season with a consensus grade as one of the ten best players in the Los Angeles farm system.
The 24-year-old Louisville product has generally performed well at the bat in the minors, but has been more impressive than ever thus far in 2019. Through 166 plate appearances at Triple-A, he carries a .290/.404/.551 slash with eight long balls and 25 walks against 35 strikeouts.
That’s quite a bit of offense for a player who is also considered a fine defensive performer. Smith could at some point take over as the regular behind the dish in L.A., though he’ll be looking over his shoulder at Keibert Ruiz — an even more-hyped young catcher who is playing at the Double-A level.
For now, Smith will be tasked with filling in. It doesn’t seem as if Barnes will be down for long with the injury, so a return to Triple-A could take place soon thereafter. That said, it is notable that the Dodgers have placed Smith on the 40-man roster and elected to give him a look at this stage of the season.
Julio Urias Reinstated From Administrative Leave
TODAY: Urias has indeed been officially reinstated by Major League Baseball. Outfielder Kyle Garlick was optioned to create roster space.
As Passan noted yesterday, the Dodgers are not permitted to take punitive action against Urias. The league’s announcement makes clear that “the investigation into a matter covered by the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy continues.”
YESTERDAY, 10:19pm: MLB decided not to extend the leave period because it was unable to acquire access to video of the incident, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports. The player’s association and Urias were not willing to consent to an extended leave period. The investigation is still ongoing.
8:16pm: The Major League Baseball commissioner’s office is expected not to renew the administrative leave period of Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias when it expires tomorrow, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). It appears the team will return the 22-year-old to its active roster.
Urias was placed on seven-day administrative leave last Tuesday after his overnight arrest. Per reports, he was arrested on suspicion of “misdemeanor domestic battery” after witnesses saw him “shove” a female companion “to the ground.”
Under the terms of the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy, the commissioner has authority to place a player accused of a possible violation of the policy “on paid Administrative Leave for up to seven days while the allegations are investigated before making a disciplinary decision.” That placement, which removes a player from his team’s active roster but does not stop his paycheck, can be challenged “immediately.”
In past instances, commissioner Rob Manfred has issued successive, week-long leave periods. Why he has elected not to do so in this case is unknown at present. It could indicate that a decision on discipline has already been made, though the league office has typically taken quite a bit longer to allow facts to develop before provisionally clearing a player or issuing any fines or suspensions. It may instead simply reflect a decision by the commissioner that Urias ought to be allowed to play during the pendency of any further investigation, whether or not prompted by pushback from the player, team, or union.
We’ll need to await further word before it’s possible to assess the situation. For now, it seems that the 22-year-old pitcher will be eligible to return to his role with the team.
Dodgers To Place Kenta Maeda On 10-Day Injured List
The Dodgers will place right-hander Kenta Maeda on the 10-day IL before tomorrow’s game, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). Maeda’s placement caps off a busy day of roster-shuffling for the Dodgers, as the team also activated lefty Caleb Ferguson from the IL and sent catcher Rocky Gale and right-hander J.T. Chargois to Triple-A. Prior to tomorrow’s game, the Dodgers will also call up utilityman Matt Beaty from Triple-A and select the contract of outfielder Kyle Garlick.
Maeda fouled a ball off his thigh in last night’s game, and the Dodgers are thusly putting him on the IL “as a precaution,” Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. Since the Dodgers have two off-days next week, it looks like Maeda will miss one start at the most while he recovers from what looks like a minor injury.
Los Angeles has deployed Maeda exclusively as a starting pitcher in 2019, and the righty has delivered his usual strong results. Though nine starts and 51 1/3 innings, Maeda has a 3.51 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 2.60 K/BB rate, numbers that are largely backed up by advanced metrics. Maeda is inducing soft contact on 27% of his batted balls this season, the second-highest total of any qualified starter in the game.
A 28th-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2015 draft, Garlick will get his first MLB exposure after posting a 1.002 OPS over 136 PA for Triple-A Oklahoma City this season. The 27-year-old Garlick has a .283/.341/.519 slash line through 1678 career minor league plate appearances.
MLB Places Julio Urias On Administrative Leave Following Arrest
4:45pm: Urias has been placed on seven-day administrative leave, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). That’s standard procedure as the commissioner’s office gathers facts surrounding the incident, and it’s typical for that leave to be extended in multiple seven-day increments as the investigation is ongoing. Urias will be paid while on leave, though if he is ultimately punished in the form of a suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy, that pay and any service time accrued can be rescinded.
9:33am: Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias was arrested last night, according to a report from TMZ Sports. The 22-year-old was seen “arguing with a female companion” and allegedly “shoved her to the ground.”
Though the identity of the alleged victim is not known, Urias is said to have been arrested on suspicion of “misdemeanor domestic battery.” The report suggests that the victim denied any physical altercation, but that police made the arrest based upon eyewitness accounts and video evidence.
It’s obviously disturbing to learn of these allegations. Until more is known, it would be unwise to speculate on possible legal jeopardy or MLB punishment. The league has not yet announced anything regarding this matter, but it seems possible that it will be investigated under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.
Rays Acquire Travis d’Arnaud
6:26pm: This move is now official. Infielder Matt Duffy was shifted to the 60-day injured list to create 40-man space; the team will wait to make a corresponding active roster move.
6:03pm: The Rays have struck a deal with the Dodgers to acquire catcher Travis d’Arnaud, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Cash considerations will go to Los Angeles in return.
This represents the continuation of d’Arnaud’s already disjointed season. After working back to health in the wake of Tommy John surgery, he opened up as the Mets’ backup backstop but was dumped at a surprisingly early juncture.
The Dodgers signed the out-of-options d’Arnaud as a righty bench bat with designs on trying him at other positions, but instead pivoted quickly to today’s move. d’Arnaud is now slated to help fill in while the Rays deal with injuries to their top two backstops (Mike Zunino and Michael Perez).
Perhaps it’s not surprising to see these organizations showing interest in d’Arnaud as a fill-in and possible bounceback performer. He was long considered quite talented and has at times been a quality-hitting catcher. Best of all, the New York club is on the hook for d’Arnaud’s $3.52MM salary (less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum) so it’s a virtual free-ride for other outfits.
There’s no reason to think that the Dodgers soured on d’Arnaud after watching him take just one plate appearance, though perhaps they weren’t enthralled by what they saw when they worked him out at first base and left field. Perhaps the team was simply willing to let him go because there was a clear opportunity for him in Tampa Bay and because it was just as interested in utilizing other players to fill out the roster.
White Sox Acquire Paulo Orlando
The White Sox announced today that they have acquired outfielder Paulo Orlando from the Dodgers. He has been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte.
The return isn’t know, but it’s likely a deal for cash considerations. Orlando had been serving as depth in the Los Angeles organization after signing a minors deal over the winter.
Orlando, 33, appeared in each of the past four seasons with the Royals but failed to reach 100 plate appearances in 2017 and 2018. He’s a .263/.289/.384 hitter over 918 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.
James Loney Retires
Veteran first baseman James Loney, who’d launched a comeback bid when he signed with the Atlantic League’s Sugar Land Skeeters, announced his retirement from baseball Friday.
It’s been three years since Loney, now 35, appeared in a big league game. His last Major League work came in 2016 when he batted .265/.307/.397 through 366 plate appearances with the Mets. Loney had a brief stint with the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins, did not play in 2018 and appeared in just 11 games with the Skeeters this season before today’s announcement.
Although it’s been a bit since Loney was prominent in Major League Baseball, he’s still a well-known name to most fans thanks to a solid 11-year run at the MLB level. Selected by the Dodgers with the 19th overall pick in the 2002 draft, Loney debuted as a 21-year-old less than four years later and quickly solidified himself as a viable long-term piece in Los Angeles. He hit .284/.342/.559 in 111 plate appearances during that rookie effort and followed it up with a brilliant .331/.381/.538 showing in 375 plate appearances during the 2007 season.
That cemented Loney’s place in the L.A. lineup, and while his bat never matched that lofty standard again, he was a solid offensive presence for the Dodgers over the next four years, consistently hitting for average with quality on-base skills and one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. In parts of seven seasons with his original organization, Loney hit .284/.341/.423 all while providing the Dodgers with above-average defense at first base.
Loney struggled in a brief run with the Red Sox after being included in 2012’s epic Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett blockbuster and settled for a one-year deal with the Rays in hopes of rebuilding his stock. He did just that. Loney turned in a .299/.348/.430 performance with his characteristically strong glovework in his first season with Tampa Bay, and he parlayed that success into a three-year, $21MM deal to remain with the Rays. He’d give Tampa Bay a second season of above-average output before struggling in year two of that pact and eventually being released prior to the final season of the deal. It was at that point that Loney latched on for what now proved to be his final season — the aforementioned Mets run.
All told, Loney logged 1443 games in the Majors and hit .284/.336/.410 with 108 home runs, 267 doubles, 21 triples, 38 stolen bases, 528 runs scored and another 669 knocked in. Beyond that, Loney was a monster in the postseason, hitting .350/.429/.525 through 91 plate appearances across parts of eight different series (mostly with the Dodgers). Between his first-round bonus and his 11 seasons in the Majors, Loney racked up more than $38MM in career earnings.
Dodgers Release Josh Smoker, Ezequiel Carrera
The Dodgers released lefty Josh Smoker and outfielder Ezequiel Carrera from their Triple-A club, as first indicated on the Pacific Coast League’s transactions log.
Neither has performed well to start the season in Oklahoma City, as Smoker has been tagged for 14 runs on 20 hits and nine walks with 11 strikeouts in 14 innings of work thus far. Carrera, meanwhile, is hitting .172/.250/.207 — albeit through just 32 plate appearances over the course of 10 games.
Smoker, 30, spent the 2018 campaign with the Pirates and Tigers, pitching to a strong 3.38 ERA in with a 50-to-16 K/BB ratio in 45 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball. He allowed seven runs in 7 1/3 innings at the MLB level, however. Smoker averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 71 2/3 big league innings from 2016-17 with the Mets, but his heater dipped a couple miles per hour in last year’s brief stint.
Carrera, 31, has tallied more than four years of MLB service time across parts of seven big league seasons but hasn’t been in the Majors since 2017 with the Blue Jays. He’s a career .262/.324/.365 hitter with 19 homers, 45 doubles, nine triples and 44 steals through 508 games and just over 1300 MLB plate appearances. He’s logged at least 740 innings at all three outfield positions over the course of his Major League career.
Latest On Dodgers’ Plans For Travis d’Arnaud
It was at least a mite curious when the Dodgers decided to add backstop Travis d’Arnaud over the weekend. There’s additional clarity now to the team’s thinking, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register reports.
d’Arnaud joins fellow catchers Austin Barnes and Russell Martin on the active roster in Los Angeles. Some teams go with three receivers, at least for stretches, but it doesn’t appear that the Dodgers anticipate giving him much time behind the plate.
Manager Dave Roberts says that the team envisions utilizing d’Arnaud at first base and in left field. It’s a whole new world for the 30-year-old, who has logged exactly nine MLB innings in the field without a mask on. (He appeared briefly at second and third base in 2017.) d’Arnaud also played two games at first base in the minors, but has yet to line up on the outfield grass.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Having an experienced backstop available will help increase Roberts’s flexibility in making late-game decisions, even if the club doesn’t expect to lean heavily on d’Arnaud while he learns a whole new staff. And it’s quite nice to have him on hand as an added depth piece to help account for any injuries.
If d’Arnaud can rediscover his former form with the bat and learn some new positions along the way, he could end up being a rather interesting asset for the Dodgers. If things don’t shake out as hoped over the next several weeks, the club can reassess the health status of A.J. Pollock and scan the trade market if there’s a need for another right-handed bat.