Free Agent Profile: Hanley Ramirez
The Manny Ramirez era in Los Angeles is long over, but Hanleywood has given the Dodgers plenty of lasting memories in recent years. Hanley Ramirez is now hitting the free agent market and whether he winds up back with the Dodgers or with someone else, he’s all but certain to get paid big bucks.
Strengths/Pros
Offensively, Ramirez rates as one of the highest-impact free agents available. Last season, Ramirez slashed .283/.369/.448 with 13 homers in 128 games for the Dodgers. His career track record is even stronger with a batting line of .300/.373/.500. There aren’t many shortstops who offer the kind of pop that Ramirez can, either. He has yet to hit less than ten homers in a campaign and that low point comes from a partial season of play (2011). Over the last nine years, Ramirez has averaged 21 homers per season.
Ramirez has never played in a particularly homer-friendly environment, but he still boasts strong career numbers. With the Dodgers, Ramirez posted a .299/.368/.506 line in his two-and-a-half seasons, numbers that are eerily similar to his career slash line. When stacking his 2014 wRC+ against this winter’s other free agents (I modified the free agent leaderboard constructed by Steve Adams to exclude players with options that were exercised, like Ben Zobrist and Denard Span), he rates third among qualified hitters with a 135 rating. That puts him ahead of guys like Melky Cabrera and just a hair behind the big bat of Nelson Cruz.
Ramirez turned in a 3.4 WAR this past season and a particularly strong 5.0 WAR in 2013. He was a massive offensive weapon for the Dodgers in 2013 with a wOBA of .446. His closer-to-mortal .362 wOBA in 2014 is still quite strong, also good for No. 3 on the aforementioned free agent leaderboard. For his career, he has offered better-than-average strikeout and walk rates (16.6% and 9.6%) and his walk rate of 10.9% this past season was actually a step up from his total body of work. Both UBR and BsR scored him as an above-average baserunner this past season and are fond his career body of work on the bases.
A three-time All-Star, he shines especially bright when compared to the rest of the crop at the shortstop position. After Ramirez, the next best options are Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie, and Asdrubal Cabrera. While all three are starter material, Ramirez clearly is of a different caliber and figures to out-earn all of them significantly in terms of average annual value and contract length.
Of course, Ramirez’s future might not be at shortstop. He also has 98 games of experience at third base to his credit, the bulk of which came in 2012 with the Marlins. The top of the third base market is healthier than at short, with options like Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley, but Ramirez offers the most offensive potential of the three. A team could sign Ramirez to play shortstop, for now, and shift him over to third base down the line depending on the needs and opportunities that come up.
Weaknesses/Cons
Ramirez’s health has been an issue for years now. He’s phenomenal when he’s on the field, but it’s hard to count on getting a full season out of him given his track record. We first saw the injury bug strike in 2011 where he played in just 92 games, and in 2013, Ramirez took the field in just 86 games, his lowest output since becoming a full-time player.
Ramirez first started having shoulder trouble in 2010 and it only got worse in 2011 when he injured himself trying to make a diving catch in August of that year, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. In 2013, he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed a month after undergoing surgery. When he got back on the field, his hamstring cost him significant time. This past season, Ramirez was held back by several injuries, including a strained oblique.
While there are tons of great things to say about Ramirez’s bat, his fielding is not at all on the same level. Ramirez’s -15.6 UZR/150 rating from this past season is atrocious and his -8.8 career mark is pretty ugly as well. Defensive runs saved tells the same story – he cost the Dodgers nine runs in 2014 and has a -77 tally for his career.
I mentioned the possibility of a shift from shortstop to third base as a positive in the previous section, but here’s the other (and, maybe, more realistic take): a club signing Ramirez to a multi-year pact will likely have to put him at third base at some point to try and cover up his defensive shortcomings. When you look at his history of poor defense and injuries and consider that he’s on the wrong side of 30 (he’ll be 31 by Opening Day), there’s little reason to believe it’ll get better.
Ramirez will most definitely turn down the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, meaning that any other club signing him will forfeit its top unprotected pick.
Personal
Ramirez was born and raised in the Dominican Republic and attended Adbentista High School. Ramirez is married with three children – two sons and a daughter. In the summer of 2013, his youngest son showed everyone that he has a gorgeous swing, just like his father (Vine link).
Market
The Dodgers and Ramirez were discussing an extension in the early part of the season, but the two sides agreed to table talks when they could not bridge a sizable gap. A return is not out of the question, but rival evaluators told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney in September that they were sensing that the Dodgers would offer Ramirez the QO with the expectation that he would decline, sign elsewhere, and net them draft compensation. Of course, the new regime in L.A. headed by Andrew Friedman might feel differently.
More recently, Ramirez has reportedly told teams that he’s willing to play a position other than shortstop, which should make clubs with third base needs and possibly corner outfield needs more open to adding him. However, some clubs might have reservations about signing him and simply dropping him into the outfield. After all, he’s never played a single game there in his pro career.
The Yankees might be the most obvious fit for Ramirez, but reports this week indicated that they weren’t likely to pursue many of the big-name free agents on the market. Of course, as Steve pointed out in the linked piece, that report mentioned many top free agents by name, but Ramirez’s name was absent. If the Yankees are willing to pay market price for Ramirez, they can slot him in at shortstop in the short-term and transition him over to third or a corner outfield spot later on in the contract.
The Mariners and Giants could enter the mix as well, with San Francisco looking at him as a third base or left field option. The Tigers might make sense from a need standpoint, but they have so many large contracts on the books looking forward that adding a significant deal for Ramirez might be tough. A reunion with the Red Sox might be possible since he is willing to play third, and they’ve reportedly already reached out to him. The White Sox have money to spend, few significant long-term contracts on the books and lack a clear long-term option at third base. The A’s are in need of a shortstop and with a lefty-heavy offense, Ramirez’s big right-handed bat would be a welcome addition, though it’s hard to see his salary fitting into the budget. The Mets also probably won’t spend the money necessary to sign Ramirez, but the need is there.
Expected Contract
Ramirez was reportedly asking for over $130MM in the spring give up a chance at testing the open market, presumably on a five- or six-year pact. Given the lucrative deals signed by Jacoby Ellsbury ($153MM) and Shin-Soo Choo ($130MM) last winter, an AAV of $20MM or more seems feasible for Ramirez, who offers major offensive production at a premium position.
Even when considering Ramirez’s spotty health record and weak glove, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t comes away as the highest paid positional player of the winter. Last winter, Ellsbury got a $153MM, seven-year pact, despite his own checkered injury history. I think Ramirez will approach that AAV with one less year, netting a six-year, $132MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Hire Farhan Zaidi, Josh Byrnes
THURSDAY: The Dodgers have announced the pair of signings. Zaidi will assume the role of general manager, while Byrnes has been named the senior vice president of baseball operations.
“It is very exciting for us to be able to add two exceptional, veteran baseball executives like Farhan and Josh,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in the press release. “Farhan’s primary focus will be the Major League team and player acquisitions while Josh will concentrate on the oversight of scouting and player development. However, they will both work closely with me on all aspects of baseball operations in our efforts to make the Dodgers’ front office and team the best it can possibly be.”
TUESDAY: The Dodgers will name former Athletics assistant GM Farhan Zaidi the team’s new general manager this week, according to a tweet from Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Zaidi, 37, had been with Oakland for ten years and was promoted just before last season.
The club is also set to add former Diamondbacks and Padres GM Josh Byrnes, Mark Saxon of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Though it is not yet known what position he will hold, his addition is a “done deal,” per Saxon.
Combined, the addition of the well-regarded Zaidi and experienced Byrnes represent major additions to the front office of new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
Zaidi’s former boss, Billy Beane, credits him with a brilliant and creative mind, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote in a profile. According to Slusser, Zaidi was instrumental in bringing Yoenis Cespedes to Oakland and in maximizing value through platoons.
A Muslim Canadian who grew up in the Philippines, it goes without saying that Zaidi does not have a typical background for a baseball executive. But his analytical background — he has an undergraduate degree from M.I.T. and a Ph.D. in behavioral economics from Cal-Berkeley — ultimately won him a chance with the A’s, and he never looked back. In spite of his background, Zaidi is known as a proponent of utilizing traditional scouting and focusing on tools in identifying talent.
White Sox Receiving Interest In Alexei Ramirez
The White Sox have received solid early trade interest in shortstop Alexei Ramirez, according to a report from Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com. Chicago has been contacted by the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers regarding the 33-year-old.
Ramirez has one year left on his deal at an affordable $10MM. He also comes with a $10MM option for 2016, which carries a $1MM buyout. Though he could not maintain his hot start to the year, Ramirez ended with a solid .273/.305/.408 slash to go with 15 home runs and 21 steals. A well-regarded defender, Ramirez compiled 4.1 rWAR and 3.3 fWAR.
Were the White Sox to part with Ramirez, the team would look for a one-year stopgap. The long-term solution, the team hopes, is working its way up through the system in the person of Tim Anderson. The 2013 first-rounder reached the Double-A level last year.
West Notes: Rockies, Gasparino, Dodgers, Rangers
The Rockies‘ decision to make a qualifying offer to outfielder Michael Cuddyer makes more sense in light of reports that the club could be open to making some larger moves, possibly involving stars Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. For his money, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding believes the likeliest scenario involves a trade of first baseman Justin Morneau, whose remaining contract is attractive given his production last year. I discussed this very issue last night with Denver Post writer Nick Groke for today’s podcast, which will be made available shortly.
Here’s more from out west:
- The Padres gave the Dodgers permission yesterday to interview scouting director Billy Gasparino, Corey Brock of MLB.com tweets. It may be more of a done deal, in fact, according to a report from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).
- Turning to the major league side of things, the Dodgers face yet another offseason with questions about an outfield logjam, as Mike Petriello of Fangraphs writes. With Joc Pederson now clearly having proven himself at Triple-A, Petriello takes a look at the available options. The likeliest, in his opinion, is a trade involving Carl Crawford.
- The Rangers expect to be more active on the trade market than in free agency, as Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com reports. “I think just by nature free agents will cost more money,” said GM Jon Daniels. “I think we have some areas of depth and have a chance to get some players with a little bit more cost control.” Daniels went on to discuss some general possibilities. “I feel pretty good about our [minor] league system just based on the players we’ve been asked about, and other teams feel about it the same way,” he explained. “It’s a pretty unique market, there’s quite a few pitchers who might be on the market, and that’s probably the strength of the marketplace in free agent and trade standpoints. I don’t know how quick it will be, but I think we’ll be able to address our needs.”
NL East Notes: Stanton, Mets, Nationals, Tomas, Hamels
As expected, the Marlins have begun extension talks with star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Spencer that the team has “reached out” to Stanton’s representatives and that “negotiations are ongoing.”
Here’s more from the NL East:
- At present, the Mets are more inclined to fill their needs in the corner outfield via trade than through a free agent signing, reports Marc Carig of Newsday. New York is still hesitant to give up any of its best young talent in a swap. But veterans like Michael Morse, Alex Rios, and Torii Hunter all seem more like fallback options that the team would pursue if value can be had and nothing better has materialized. The Mets are said to prefer to add a right-handed bat.
- One other hypothetical possibility, Nick Markakis, is not presently engaged with the team in any way, according to Matt Ehalt of The Record (Twitter link).
- As they weigh their options at second, the Nationals are not unmindful of the Cuban market that has begun to materialize in recent weeks, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. The primary possible targets, per Wagner, are 26-year-old Jose Fernandez and high-upside youngster Yoan Moncada. The 20-year-old Moncada will draw immense interest, with Ben Badler of Baseball America saying he is talented enough that he would be the odds-on favorite to go first overall in this year’s amateur draft (were he eligible).
- The Phillies are still the favorite to land Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, with A.J. Burnett‘s decision to decline his option possibly burnishing Philly’s chances. That does not mean they are without competition, of course. Other clubs that have seen (or will soon see) Tomas since his showcase include the Rangers, D’backs, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox, and Mariners.
- Also per Heyman, the Phillies could clear yet more payroll space and add young talent through a deal for pitcher Cole Hamels, with the Cubs still showing interest in the lefty.
Front Office Notes: Nats, Trammell, Zaidi
The Nationals have hired former Reds executive Bob Miller to serve as a vice president and assistant general manager, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (Twitter link). Kilgore first mentioned Miller as a speculative replacement for departed AGM Bryan Minniti a couple of weeks ago. Miller will bring more than 30 years of experience to the Nationals’ front office and has previously worked with GM Mike Rizzo while with the D’Backs. He’s previously specialized in salary arbitration and contractual matters, per Kilgore.
Here are a few more front office notes from around the game…
- The Tigers have added Alan Trammell to their front office as a special assistant to GM Dave Dombrowski, reports Tom Gage of the Detroit News (on Twitter). Trammell, of course, spent three seasons as the team’s manager from 2003-05 and has served as a bench coach for the Cubs and D’Backs. He also spent his entire 20-year playing career with the Tigers as a shortstop, hitting .285/.352/.415, making six All-Star appearances and winning four Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers.
- The Dodgers have spoken to well-regarded Athletics assistant GM Farhan Zaidi about a role in their front office, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). It’s far from a given that Zaidi would leave the A’s and GM Billy Beane to work alongside Andrew Friedman in L.A., Rosenthal notes, though I’d imagine the Dodgers could benefit from flexing their financial muscle, as they did to acquire Friedman in the first place. Zaidi and colleague David Forst are two of the game’s most respected assistant general managers.
Outrighted: Quiroz, Bochy, Axford, Gomez, d’Arnaud, Richardson, Elmore
According to the International League and Pacific Coast League transactions pages, the following outrights and related minor moves took place today:
- The Giants have outrighted catcher Guillermo Quiroz and righty Brett Bochy. Quiroz, 32, saw just three MLB plate appearances this year and has only once made more than 100 trips to the plate in a single season despite seeing action in ten MLB campaigns. Bochy, son of manager Bruce, got his first taste of the bigs this year, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings.
- After designating them for assignment recently, the Pirates have outrighted relievers John Axford and Jeanmar Gomez. Axford, 31, will look for a chance to bounce back after posting three seasons and 189 innings of 4.24 ERA work from the pen. Gomez, meanwhile, tossed 62 frames of 3.19 ERA ball after a solid 2013, but his peripherals do not quite back up the results.
- Pittsburgh also outrighted utility infielder Chase d’Arnaud. The 27-year-old has fairly minimal MLB action, but owns a .251/.316/.370 line over 1,426 Triple-A plate appearances over parts of four seasons. He has spent his entire career in the Pirates organization.
- The Yankees have outrighted outfielder Antoan Richardson after he racked up five stolen bases over the course of just 13 games (and 17 plate appearances) in New York. Richardson, 31, has been a consistent high-OBP and speed threat in the upper minors, but has yet to receive a real opportunity at the big league level.
- Also outrighted was utilitman Jake Elmore of the Reds. Cincinnati claimed Elmore from the Athletics in early August. He ultimately saw just 12 plate appearances with the Reds, and is still looking for his first consistent MLB role at age 27.
- Previously outrighted players Adam Moore of the Padres, Scott Elbert of the Dodgers, Matt McBride of the Rockies, and Evan Reed and Don Kelly of the Tigers have all elected free agency.
Padres Designate Stults, Roach; Lose Jackson To Dodgers On Waivers
The Padres announced today that they have designated left-hander Eric Stults and right-hander Donn Roach for assignment, adding that catcher Adam Moore has been outrighted off the 40-man roster. Additionally, infielder Ryan Jackson has been claimed off waivers by the Dodgers.
The moves make room for the reinstatement of right-hander Casey Kelly, left-hander Cory Luebke, first baseman Yonder Alonso and outfielder Carlos Quentin from the 60-day disabled list.
Stults, who is nearing his 35th birthday, threw 176 innings of 4.30 ERA ball last season, tallying 5.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Those numbers represent a downtick from his work over 2012-13, when Stults carried a 3.60 ERA across 302 2/3 innings. The major difference in his year-over-year results comes in the form of an increasing rate of home runs allowed. ERA estimators have generally viewed him in much the same light: as a below-average starting pitcher. Stults had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.6MM through arbitration, so the move is not terribly surprising.
Roach, meanwhile, made his MLB debut this year at age 24. He posted a 4.75 ERA in 30 1/3 frames while posting an unappetizing 5.0 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9. His numbers at Triple-A were no more promising, but Roach has had success in the lower minor league levels.
As for Moore, the 30-year-old backstop has seen action in parts of six MLB seasons but has only taken more than 24 plate appearances in one of them (back in 2010 with the Mariners). Once a well-regarded prospect, Moore has a .200/.241/.309 line over 283 trips to the plate in the majors. He did, however, have an excellent campaign at Triple-A this year, slashing .305/.367/.506 and swatting 13 long balls over 354 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old Jackson will present a utility infield option for his new club. He has scant major league experience, but owns a .274/.344/.369 slash in over 1,000 plate appearances at the Triple-A level and comes with a good defensive reputation at short. Jackson missed most of 2014 after undergoing wrist surgery.
Dodgers Make Qualifying Offer To Hanley Ramirez
The Dodgers announced that they have made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Hanley Ramirez.
The move was widely expected, as Ramirez will hit the open market as arguably the top position player in this year’s free agent class. The 30-year-old Ramirez batted .283/.369/.448 with 13 homers in 128 games this season, and while he’s been injury prone over the past few years, he comes with the upside of being one of the game’s best offensive players, as he was in 2013 upon activation from the disabled list. Ramirez slashed an otherworldly .345/.402/.638 with 20 homers in 86 games that year and is a lifetime .300/.373/.500 hitter.
Ramirez will have a week to accept or decline the offer, though that’s little more than a formality as he will clearly decline in favor of a multi-year free agent deal. If he signs elsewhere after rejecting the offer, the Dodgers would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of next year’s first round.
His status, along with that of others who have been recipients of the qualifying offer, can be monitored in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker.
Dodgers Re-Sign Barry Enright
Here are today’s minor league transactions, with the latest moves at the top of the post…
- The Dodgers have re-signed right-hander Barry Enright to a new minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports. Enright originally signed with L.A. in July, and he posted a 6.20 ERA over a combined 135 IP for the Dodgers’ and Phillies’ Triple-A affiliates in 2014. Enright has a 5.57 ERA in 148 2/3 career Major League innings with the Diamondbacks and Angels from 2010-13.