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How The Rays Traded A Top-100 Prospect For A 29-Year-Old Rookie And Came Away Winners

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Nick Anderson is not exactly a household name – and he may never be. For most of last season, Anderson was a 28-year-old rookie non-closer pitching for the Marlins (he turned 29 in July). That’s not a recipe for superstardom.

After a deadline deal brought him to Tampa Bay, Anderson did get a moment in the spotlight, striking out four of the five batters he faced in the Rays’ Wild Card Game win over the A’s. That was nothing new for Anderson, who spent most of the season racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate.

Between Tampa and Miami, Anderson appeared in 68 games in 2019, totaling 65 innings with a good-but-not-great 3.32 ERA. The peripherals speak to a much more dominant campaign for the former independent leaguer. His 2.35 FIP suggests a potential high-leverage bullpen arm, while the 2.1 fWAR he racked up confirms it: he tied for 5th overall in the majors among relievers. That puts him on the same plane with firemen/closers like Taylor Rogers, Brandon Workman, Felipe Vazquez and Aroldis Chapman. Make no mistake: Nick Anderson is an elite bullpen piece.

Credit the Marlins for picking up Anderson and turning him into a top-100 prospect in Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez may have lost some luster as a prospect, but he still landed at #96 on Fangraphs’ top-100 list. Yes, he was #47 on their updated list after starting the year at #54 in 2019, but he’s still just 22-years-old and posted a promising line of .246/.338/.446 in the homer-happy PCL after the trade. As a 21-year-old, he was more than 5 years younger than the average player in the PCL.

For their part, the Marlins acquired Anderson for Brian Schales after the Twins signed Anderson from the independent league. The 6’5″ Anderson put up good numbers in the Twins’ system from 2015 to 2017, but he started to pop in 2018, striking out 13.2 hitters per nine innings in Triple-A. At the time, the deal was most notable for bumping Derek Dietrich from the Marlins’ roster.

But Anderson became a different animal entirely during his breakout in 2019. His 15.23 K/9 ranked fourth among relievers in the majors, behind only strikeout artists Edwin Diaz, Matt Barnes and Josh Hader. After joining the Rays, Anderson went into overdrive, striking out a ridiculous 17.3 batters per nine innings. Including his Marlins work, the Minnesota native finished in the bottom 9th percentile in hard hit percentage and bottom 12th percentile in exit velocity.

In adding Anderson from the Marlins, the Rays got a guy who has a legitimate chance to be one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball, and they have him at the league minimum for another two seasons. This is a guy the Rays can afford, which makes the deal all the more important from their perspective. There’s a reason they could include Ryne Stanek in the deal, a guy who throws 100+ mph and had a 3.40 ERA at the time. There’s a reason they could deal Emilio Pagan to the Padres after he broke out with a 2.3 bWAR season of his own in 2019. That reason is Nick Anderson.

So how does he do it? For Anderson, the recipe is fairly simple. He throws a fastball that averages 96 mph with good spin that he locates up in the zone. His “other” pitch is a curveball – but it’s one of the best in the game. By Fangraphs’ pitch values, his curveball was the second most valuable such offering from a reliever in 2019, behind only Workman’s bender. Batters managed an expected batting average of just .134 off Anderson’s curveball while registering a whiff rate of 54.2%. As of right now, Anderson’s hook is one of the deadliest weapons in the sport.

Anderson could also be in line for some positive regression this season, as opponents had a higher-than-average .349 BABIP against him in 2019. A 14.5 % HR/FB rate was also higher than Anderson had yielded at any point in the minors, and if that number comes down, Anderson could be an even more potent asset for the Rays moving forward.

His ceiling is no lower than Liam Hendriks’ amazing 2019, though Hendriks has a bit more versatility in his offspeed stuff. Hendriks, of course, was the most productive reliever in all of baseball last season, so there aren’t a ton of comps out there that make sense for him. Anderson, however, is one that does.

The Sale Of An Elite Outfield

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Myriad issues have weighed down the Marlins during their 16-year playoff drought, but it wasn’t that long ago they at least boasted an elite outfield. Back in 2017, the trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna led the Marlins to a first-place ranking in fWAR in the grass (16.8). Stanton enjoyed an NL MVP-winning, 59-home run season; Yelich continued to post underrated production (he’s not underrated anymore); and Ozuna recorded a career year that he hasn’t replicated since. Of course, those players’ contributions weren’t enough to even get the Marlins to the .500 mark, and that season proved to be all three outfielders’ last hurrah in Miami.

Prior to the 2018 season, the non-contending Marlins and a new ownership group headed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter went on a campaign designed to slash payroll they inherited from predecessor Jeffrey Loria and build up a bottom-of-the-barrel farm system. To achieve those goals, the Marlins decided all three of their star outfielders were expendable, and they moved each of them on the heels of their standout 2017 showings.

Stanton, then 28 years old, was the most accomplished member of the trio at the time. He was also the owner of a historic, franchise-record contract worth $325MM over 13 years that he signed in November 2014. Stanton still had $275MM left on the deal three years ago, making him ripe for a change of scenery from the Marlins’ perspective.

The Giants, Cardinals and Dodgers were among those that pursued Stanton when the Marlins put the slugger on the block. Both San Francisco and St. Louis reportedly agreed to acquire Stanton, but he used his full no-trade clause to block moves to those cities; meanwhile, his hometown Los Angeles club didn’t make a good enough offer for Miami’s liking. That created an opening for the Yankees, Jeter’s team for all of his Hall of Fame playing career, to swoop in and grab Stanton to pair with fellow hulking corner outfielder Aaron Judge.

Stanton and Judge had combined for 111 home runs during the prior season, and the Yankees no doubt had designs on them leading them to championships in the future. Thanks in part to injuries to both players, that hasn’t happened yet, and when healthy, Stanton hasn’t been the same player he was in 2017. While he has been good, the Yankees probably want more out of Stanton going forward with him still guaranteed an exorbitant amount of money through 2027.

As for the details of the trade, the Yankees took on the vast majority of Stanton’s money (the Marlins paid $30MM) in exchange for second baseman Starlin Castro and two prospects in right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers. Castro had shown himself to be a roughly average regular with the Cubs and Yankees from 2010-17. The widely held belief was that the Marlins would end up flipping him and the $22MM left on his deal before he ever played in their uniform. As it turned out, though, Castro spent the last full two years on his pact in Miami, where he produced – you guessed it – roughly average production (3.6 fWAR in 1,323 plate appearances). He’s now a member of the NL East rival Nationals, who signed him in free agency last offseason.

The Marlins were never going to contend during the remainder of Castro’s contract, so the bigger motivation for them was getting as much of Stanton’s money as possible off the books and trying to bolster their system. Guzman and Devers have helped them do the latter to at least some degree. Now 24 years old, the hard-throwing Guzman ranks as the Marlins’ No. 19 prospect at MLB.com; he climbed to the Double-A level last season and registered a 3.50 ERA/4.37 FIP with 8.24 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9 over 138 2/3 innings. Devers, 20, checks in even higher than Guzman on MLB.com’s list (No. 11), though he failed to hit a homer in 138 plate appearances in High-A ball last season. FanGraphs then wrote that it only considers him “a lefty utility bench piece.”

Thus far, getting out from under Stanton’s onerous contract has been the biggest plus of that trade for the Marlins. Between his deal and his no-trade rights, it was obviously a challenge to find a trade partner for him. The team was in a better position with both Yelich and Ozuna, though.

Unlike Stanton, Yelich – on the cusp of his age-27 season, signed to a sweetheart contract and having combined for 10.0 fWAR from 2016-17 – should have commanded a king’s ransom in return. Yelich wanted out, so the Marlins were extra motivated to move him. Unsurprisingly, a significant number of teams – including the Padres, Cardinals, Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Phillies, Blue Jays and Braves – were connected to him in the rumor mill. The Marlins aimed high in Yelich talks, reportedly asking the Jays for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Braves for Ronald Acuna Jr., but those teams predictably balked at those requests. Ultimately, the Marlins sent Yelich and the $43.25MM in guarantees he had left to the Brewers in January 2018 for a four-prospect package consisting of Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto.

Sure, the Marlins were letting go of an eminently valuable player, but they didn’t expect Yelich to turn into an all-world superstar as soon as he arrived in Milwaukee. But that’s what happened. He succeeded Stanton as the NL MVP in his first year as a Brewer, might have won it again last season if not for an injury, and is now the owner of by far the richest contract in Brewers history after inking an extension last month. His acquisition is one of the greatest the Brewers have ever made. The Marlins’ end hasn’t worked out nearly as well.

Brinson was the Marlins’ headlining pickup in the Yelich swap, among the absolute top prospects in baseball at the time, but hasn’t come close to living up to the hype so far. The 25-year-old managed a stunningly poor 25 wRC+ (.173/.236/.221) and failed to hit a homer in 248 trips to the plate as a Marlin last season. He has now accounted for minus-2.9 fWAR in 709 major league PA. Harrison’s still a solid prospect – FanGraphs ranks the 24-year-old No. 102 in the game – and has a chance to turn out as the best part of the return for the Marlins. Diaz, 23, hit well in Triple-A ball last year, but he was in over his head during his first MLB stint. And while it’s not saying much, Yamamoto has actually been the most valuable MLB contributor the Marlins have gotten from this trade to this point. After holding his own in the minors from 2017-19, the 23-year-old debuted in Miami last season and turned in 78 2/3 innings of 4.46 ERA/4.51 FIP ball while averaging better than a strikeout per frame.

Despite his unhappiness, tthe Marlins perhaps could have kept Yelich and tried to build around him. But they just about had to trade Ozuna, then a Scott Boras client who wasn’t going to sign an extension before his last two years of team control ran out. There was widespread interest in Ozuna, whom the Marlins wound up sending to the Cardinals for a quartet of young players – righties Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, outfielder Magneuris Sierra and lefty Daniel Castano.

The Cardinals got two respectable years out of Ozuna before losing him to the Braves in free agency this past winter; because they gave him a qualifying offer beforehand, his departure netted the Redbirds a 2020 compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Perhaps that selection will morph into a valuable young player, as Alcantara and Gallen have at least shown themselves to be. Still just 24, Alcantara parlayed a 95 mph-plus fastball into an impressive MLB season last year, when he tossed 197 1/3 innings of 3.88 ERA/4.55 FIP ball. Gallen may have been able to join him as a long-term linchpin in Miami’s rotation, but the club instead flipped him to Arizona last July in a deal for shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm.

While Gallen has already proven he can handle the majors – he made an eyebrow-raising 80-inning debut between the two teams in 2019 – Chisholm hasn’t gotten past Double-A ball yet. But the 22-year-old logged great production at that level after the trade and is generally regarded as a top 100 prospect. So, perhaps he’ll develop into a nice MLB consolation prize from the Marlins’ pre-2018 outfield fire sale. On the other hand, it seems less hopeful Sierra or Castano will amount to much. The light-hitting, speedy Sierra hasn’t posed a real threat in the minors. The 25-year-old Castano has prevented runs at a good clip since he joined the Marlins’ system, but he’s not regarded as a prospect of note.

Overall, these certainly aren’t the most inspiring results the Marlins could have hoped for when they sold off their top-notch outfield. The Yelich trade would still look particularly regrettable even if he hadn’t evolved into the superstar he has become since the deal. On the bright side, the Marlins have seen Yamamoto and Alcantara show well in the majors, and there’s also hope for some of the other players they received as products of these trades (especially Chisholm).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

When The Padres Fleeced The Marlins

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s tenure atop the club’s baseball department certainly hasn’t been a smash success. The Padres hired him late in the 2014 season and haven’t even posted a .500 season since then. To Preller’s credit, though, the Padres have put together an enticing group of young talent with his help. And in one of Preller’s greatest moves to date, the Padres acquired a right-hander who has evolved into a potential ace in exchange for a fading reliever.

If we go back to June 30, 2016, shortly before the trade deadline, the Padres were well under .500 and on their way to a 68-win season. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 41-38. The long-suffering Fish were under the impression they were playoff contenders at that point. As a result, they traded young right-hander Chris Paddack to the Padres for grizzled reliever Fernando Rodney. Big mistake.

After signing for a guaranteed $2MM in the prior offseason, Fernando enjoyed an unbelievable few months in San Diego, where he recorded an almost perfect 0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 innings and converted 17 saves in as many chances. Unsurprisingly, those numbers proved to be impossible to sustain in Miami. As a member of the Marlins, Rodney logged a ghastly 5.89 ERA (thanks in part to 25 walks in just 36 2/3 innings) and blew three of 11 save opportunities. For their part, the Marlins floundered after the trade en route to a 79-82 finish and yet another non-playoff showing. They lost Rodney to the Diamondbacks via free agency in the ensuing offseason.

In hindsight, the Rodney gamble clearly wasn’t worth it for Miami. On the other side, selling high on him has already paid dividends for San Diego and looks as if it will go down as one of the franchise’s top trades in recent memory. In return for Rodney, the Padres received Paddack, then a low minors prospect who Keith Law of The Athletic (then with ESPN) noted when the swap occurred “hasn’t given up a hit in forever.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed that “it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”

Paddack’s production was indeed ridiculous that year, during which he managed a 0.85 ERA with 15.1 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings between the Marlins’ and Padres’ Single-A teams. However, despite those numbers and the aforementioned praise, he wasn’t necessarily viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the time of the trade. When the deal went down, MLB.com ranked Paddack 17th in a Marlins farm that was not particularly respected.

In August of the year that the trade occurred, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery. The procedure wound up costing him all of 2017, but he returned the next season to dominate at the High-A and Double-A levels. That was enough to convince the Padres that Paddack was ready for major league action in 2019, and indeed he was. As a 23-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time, the fiery Paddack tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP ball with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 to emerge as one of the brightest up-and-comers in baseball.

For Preller, another 2016 trade – one in which he gave up James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. – looks like his most successful move so far. But Paddack for Rodney comes off as a masterstroke in its own right. With Paddack atop their current rotation, and with excellent prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino closing in on the majors, the Padres’ long-term rotation picture appears to be in enviable shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Derek Jeter Forgoing Salary Indefinitely; Other Marlins Execs Taking Pay Cuts

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Marlins CEO Derek Jeter is forgoing his salary on an indefinite basis, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (on Twitter). Other high-ranking Marlins executives have also taken pay cuts as the organization continues to evaluate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Additional cost-cutting measures that the Marlins’ executive and ownership club may take aren’t clear, but the cuts among some of the team’s brass will surely aid in avoiding layoffs and furloughs elsewhere in the organization. The news comes at a time when Major League Baseball is reportedly set to announce that clubs can begin to furlough or cut pay of non-playing personnel (e.g. coaches, scouts, executives). In late March, all 30 teams agreed to pay non-player employees through the end of April. MLB teams have also pledged $1MM apiece to help cover lost wages for gameday/park employees during the shutdown. Some teams have taken further steps to help cover those part-time wages.

The impact that pay reduction among club leadership will have throughout the organization can’t yet be known, but it’s nevertheless a notable gesture. It’s easy to cynically say that Jeter can afford to do so — indeed, he earned more than $265MM in player salaries during his career and was able to purchase a minority stake in the Miami franchise — but that much is true of many owners and high-ranking executives who have not opted to do so (both in and outside of baseball).

It’s of course possible that other clubs have already taken similar measures — top Rangers execs were reported to be taking cuts earlier this month — or that they’re prepping to do so in the near future. But it also seems inevitable that the economic weight of the pandemic will be felt throughout the league as uncertainty regarding the state of play persists.

Yasiel Puig Says Multiple Teams Have Made Offers

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Lest we forget, there are a number of established big-leaguers who went unsigned this winter and are still available to MLB teams. And while there aren’t any Dallas Keuchels or Craig Kimbrels out there, teams could still find some value in free agency. Undoubtedly, the biggest name still on the market is 29-year-old outfielder Yasiel Puig. The former Dodger, who is no longer the dynamite rookie who burst onto the scene in 2013, had some trouble securing a deal during the winter, and the delayed season means that he’ll have to spend more time without a team.

It was reported that Puig turned down a $10MM contract offer from a National League team during the offseason, and the consensus is that it was the Marlins who made that offer. But Puig said in an interview with Jorge Ebro of el Nuevo Herald that there are teams besides the Marlins that have offered him a deal since then. He says that the Marlins were among the first to make an offer, adding that his price tag was higher for Miami, where his native Cuban fanbase might unreasonably expect him to go 5-for-5 every night.

Of course, with rosters currently frozen and transactions on hold, Puig won’t be able to sign until MLB has set a date for Opening Day and baseball operations are able to operate as normal. With that said, there may be enough interest that when that time comes, Puig’s extended free agency will come to an end.

We don’t know how many teams have made offers, or the identities of those teams. Many teams who entered the offseason with outfield needs have already addressed those positions, so there are relatively few good fits remaining for Puig. Still, the Giants have had their name floated as a team that could be in the market for Puig’s services and were rumored to be considering him before the stoppage. Speculatively, a rebuilding team like the Tigers might be in the mix, but there hasn’t been anything concrete to suggest that.

Puig said that he doesn’t think there will be an MLB season in 2020, but if there is, he will be on the field for a team. And if not, he’s confident he’ll be back in 2021. There’s no doubt that he brings a unique spice to the game, so we hope that he finds a way onto an MLB roster by the time baseball is back.

The Marlins Built An Interesting Rotation Via Trade

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The Marlins’ rotation has a collection of young hurlers with plenty to like. It’s not a group chock full of certainty, but the unit performed reasonably last season and comes with varying degrees of future upside. Four of the team’s starters came up in trade rumors over the offseason, but the Fish elected to hold onto all of them.

Taking a look at the options on hand, a common thread emerges. Most of the Marlins’ hurlers were acquired via trade. Of the club’s projected rotation at Roster Resource, only José Ureña was signed as an amateur. To some extent, that’s expected for an organization that has spent a good portion of the past two decades selling off pieces for future assets. For the most part, though, the club’s starters came over as relatively unheralded trade pieces. Whether because of quality scouting, player development or a mere string of good luck, the Fish have turned a few under-the-radar prospects into decent MLB starters.

Staff leader Sandy Alcantara came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade. He and Magneuris Sierra co-headlined that deal, but Alcantara’s early career results dwarf those of his outfield counterpart. The 24-year-old has a 3.83 ERA in 239.2 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers are unimpressive, but Alcantara has done well at avoiding hard contact. He’s miscast as a staff ace, but he alone would’ve been a solid return for two years of Ozuna (more on that in a bit).

Caleb Smith and Pablo López were further off the radar at the time of their respective acquisitions. Smith, a former fourteenth-round pick who never ranked among the Yankees’ top thirty prospects at Baseball America, was acquired alongside first baseman Garrett Cooper for pitching prospect Mike King and international bonus pool space in 2017. Smith had performed well in the high minors in the New York system, but it’s doubtful anyone would have foreseen him posting a 25.9% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging strike rate in his first 249.1 MLB innings. Unlike Alcantara, Smith gives up a lot of authoritative contact, but his swing-and-miss stuff is no doubt intriguing.

López, meanwhile, was a low-level flier acquired from Seattle in 2017 as part of a package for David Phelps. Injuries limited Phelps to just ten appearances as a Mariner, while López looks to be a solid long-term rotation piece in Miami. He throws a ton of strikes, induces a fair amount of grounders, and ran a serviceable 20.3% strikeout rate last season.

Jordan Yamamoto was the fourth piece in the four-player package acquired from the Brewers for Christian Yelich. That deal turned sour quickly, but Yamamoto had a decent fifteen start cameo in 2019. His long-term future’s still up in the air, but he’s an interesting arm to have in the mix. Prospects Nick Neidert and Robert Dugger were acquired from the Mariners for Dee Gordon and are near-ready rotation depth pieces.

The best under-the-radar starter the Marlins have acquired in the last few years is the one they’ve since traded away. Zac Gallen was the third piece of the Ozuna package, but his stock has skyrocketed since. After combining for a 2.93 ERA in 245.1 Triple-A innings, Gallen had a strong seven start MLB debut in Miami. The Marlins flipped him to the D-Backs for shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm, Baseball America’s #88 overall prospect, last July. However one feels about the Gallen-Chisholm swap, it’s clear the right-hander was a fantastic get as the tertiary piece from St. Louis.

It’s been less than smooth sailing for the Marlins in a number of ways in recent years. But the Miami organization has picked up a few notable starting pitchers from elsewhere along the way. Whether some or all of these young arms will form the core of the Marlins’ next contending club or themselves wind up on the move for future assets remains to be seen.

Marlins’ Michael Hill On Alfaro, Stanek, NRIs

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Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill spoke with reporters on a conference call today, providing updates on multiple injured players and addressing the status of the wave of veterans who’d been in camp on non-roster deals this spring (all Twitter links via the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and SportsGrid’s Craig Mish).

Catcher Jorge Alfaro, who had been questionable for Opening Day due to a strained left oblique, now seemingly has put that injury behind him. Had Alfaro required an IL stint to open the season, Miami would’ve begun the year trotting out Chad Wallach and offseason signee Francisco Cervelli as the top two catching options, as there are no other backstops on the 40-man roster. (Alternatively, the club could’ve selected non-roster invitee Ryan Lavarnway.) If play does resume in 2020 now, they’ll instead take a continued look at the 26-year-old Alfaro, who came over from the Phillies in the J.T. Realmuto swap and slashed .262/.312/.425 with a career-high 18 home runs in 465 plate appearances for the Fish.

Updates on a pair of relievers were a bit less concrete. Flamethrowing righty Ryne Stanek, whom the Marlins acquired in the deal that sent unexpected breakout reliever Nick Anderson to the Rays last July, has been receiving some treatment for back discomfort and is now doing well. Fellow right-hander Jeff Brigham was slowed by a biceps injury in Spring Training and is still working his way back from that issue. A timetable for him wasn’t provided.

Stanek, 28, was impressive for the Rays in ’19 but saw his control completely disappear upon being traded to Miami. While he upped his strikeout rate with the Marlins, he also went from respectable walk rates with the Rays (3.2 BB/9, 8.8% overall) to astonishingly high levels with the Marlins (8.0 BB/9, 19.2%). At the time of the trade, Stanek seemed like a potential closing option for Miami — although so did Anderson — but his late struggles might’ve contributed to the Marlins’ offseason desire to add a veteran ninth-inning option (which they did in Brandon Kintzler).

Like most other clubs, the Marlins had a slew of big league veterans in camp on non-roster deals hoping to secure a spot on the club. The aforementioned Lavarnway, Matt Kemp, Sean Rodriguez, Brad Boxberger, Ryan Cook, Pat Venditte and Josh A. Smith were among the names hoping to secure a job. Everyone from that group is still with the organization, per Hill, despite any spring opt-out dates they might’ve had worked into their deals. However, until another iteration of training camp resume and teams know how many players they’ll be carrying on their rosters, Hill indicated that the club can’t make determinations or even indicate who is likely to be on the roster.

Mish and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro had both previously reported that Boxberger seemed very likely to break camp with the team. Kemp, Mish noted again today, appeared unlikely to make the club prior to the leaguewide shutdown — and Hill himself acknowledged that the former All-Star had gotten out to a poor start (4-for-28, no extra-base hits, 11 strikeouts in 30 plate appearances). With Corey Dickerson, Matt Joyce, Garrett Cooper, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra, Harold Ramirez, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez all on the roster as potential corner candidates — Jonathan Villar is expected to play center field — Miami isn’t exactly hurting for options.

This Date In Transactions History: Give The Padres A Hand

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In terms of on-field results, it hasn’t been a fruitful tenure in San Diego for general manager A.J. Preller, who hasn’t even overseen a .500 team since his hiring in 2014. But it was on this day four years ago that Preller made one of his best moves as the head of the club’s baseball department. On April 8, 2016, Preller’s Padres claimed left-handed reliever Brad Hand from the Marlins via waivers. It’s now fair to say the decision counts as one of the biggest steals of the past several years.

When the Padres put in their claim, Hand – a 2008 second-round pick and a then-26-year-old – had failed to distinguish himself as either a quality starter or a solid reliever. As a member of the Marlins, he totaled 90 appearances (43 starts) and 288 2/3 innings of 4.71 ERA/4.54 FIP ball with just 5.9 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. The Marlins designated him for assignment as a result, but the light bulb immediately went on in San Diego in 2016, when he switched to a full-time relief role.

Owing in part to an increased reliance on his slider, Hand notched a 2.92 ERA/3.07 FIP with 11.18 K/9 and 3.63 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings during his initial Padres season. The good times have kept rolling since then for Hand, who has earned three straight All-Star nods. Since the Marlins cut ties with him, Hand has logged a 2.75 ERA/3.04 FIP and 12.23 K/9 against 3.08 BB/9 across 298 frames. And he has cashed in along the way, having inked a three-year, $19.75MM guarantee in advance of the 2018 season. Odds are that Hand will collect another $10MM in 2021, as it’s difficult to see his employer turning down that reasonably priced option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

While the Padres were the ones who made that financial commitment to Hand, he’s no longer on their roster. After Hand generated significant trade interest from around the game, the Padres sold high on him in in July 2018. They sent him and fellow reliever Adam Cimber to Cleveland for catcher/outfielder Francisco Mejia, then one of the highest-ranked prospects in baseball.

Hand has been an effective closer for the Indians (Cimber struggled somewhat last year), whereas Mejia hasn’t quite lived up to the hype he drew in his younger days. However, that’s not to say Mejia is a lost cause by any means. The switch-hitting 24-year-old is coming off his first extensive action in the majors, where he batted a decent .265/.316/.438 (96 wRC+) with eight home runs in 244 plate appearances last season. Mejia did have difficulty behind the plate, throwing out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers and earning a below-average pitch-framing grade, though the Padres are no doubt still hopeful that he’ll emerge as their long-term solution at catcher. Even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to argue with the value they received in the Hand trade, and it never would have happened had they not made the wise decision to grab him off the waiver wire four years back.

Prospect Faceoff: May v. Sanchez

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There is no question that Marlins right-hander Sixto Sanchez and Dodgers righty Dustin May are among the most promising pitching prospects in baseball. Outlets such as MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs each rank them as two of the 50 best prospects in the game. The only site that puts much of a gap between the two is FanGraphs, which has May at No. 14 and Sanchez 48th. They’re otherwise neck and neck – MLB.com places Sanchez 22nd and May 23rd, while BA also gives Sanchez a bit of an edge (16th to May’s 20th).

As we continue comparing the two, it’s worth taking a look at their professional careers to this point. Now 22 years old, the 6-foot-6, 180-pound May joined the Dodgers as a third-round pick in 2016. His quality repertoire consisting of a fastball that can reach the upper 90s, a cutter and a curveball has helped him mow down the competition so far. He got to the Triple-A level for the first time last season and thrived over 27 1/3 innings, notching a 2.30 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 60 percent groundball rate. That’s obviously not a large sample of work (just five starts), but it was enough to convince the Dodgers to promote May to the majors on the final day of July.

How much time May will spend with the Dodgers in 2020 (if there is a season) remains to be seen, but the man known as “Gingergaard” made a compelling case that he’s a major league-caliber hurler during his initial MLB action. May totaled 14 appearances (four starts) and logged a 3.63 ERA/2.90 FIP with 8.31 K/9, a stunningly low 1.3 BB/9 and a respectable 44.4 percent grounder rate across 34 2/3 innings. Maybe he won’t realize his potential this year, but May has “All-Star, mid-rotation” upside, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote in February.

The Dominican-born Sanchez, 21, has been a much-needed ray of hope for the Marlins since he joined the franchise in a blockbuster trade in February 2019. Sanchez was the headlining prospect the Marlins received from the division-rival Phillies for star catcher J.T. Realmuto, and continued to boost his stock in his first year with the Miami organization. He carved up the competition during his first try in Double-A, where he recorded a 2.53 ERA/2.69 FIP, struck out almost a hitter per inning, walked fewer than two per nine and induced grounders  at a 47.9 percent clip in 103 frames. Sanchez can throw very hard, even reaching triple digits on occasion, though Longenhagen cautions that his “fastball plays beneath its velocity right now because it has sub-optimal underlying components.” There are also concerns about Sanchez’s injury history, but thanks in part to great secondary offerings and plus command, there’s front-of-the-rotation potential if he stays healthy.

Sanchez and May certainly count as a pair of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. But if you can only take one, which one would you choose? (Poll link for app users)

Transaction Retrospection: Reds Rob Marlins

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We’re approaching the four-year anniversary of an under-the-radar Reds move that has paid and could continue to pay massive dividends for the franchise. On April 1, 2016, the Reds claimed right-hander Dan Straily off waivers from the Padres. At that point, Straily was coming off an up-and-down few years divided among the Athletics, Cubs and Astros, and he spent the vast majority of the 2015 campaign as part of Houston’s Triple-A affiliate. But the Straily pickup proved to be incredibly shrewd for Cincinnati, with which he overcame unimpressive underlying metrics to post a 3.76 ERA across a career-high 191 1/3 innings in 2016.

As a team, the Reds didn’t capitalize on Straily’s presence, winning a mere 68 games and finishing with more losses than wins for the third straight year. They still haven’t registered a .500 or better season since then, though the effect of taking a low-risk flier on Straily a few years back could be felt for a significant amount of time. After all, on the heels of his solid season as a Red, they flipped him to the Marlins in January 2017 in what’s arguably one of the biggest heists in recent baseball history.

In exchange for Straily, the Reds received three players – a pair of righties, Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, as well as outfield prospect Isaiah White. Brice didn’t amount to much in Cincinnati (he actually spent last season back with the Marlins and is now a member of the Red Sox organization), while the 23-year-old White hasn’t advanced past the Single-A level yet.

On the other hand, Castillo has become a gem – a hurler the Marlins no doubt rue trading at all, let alone for someone who was an unspectacular performer in their uniform. Straily was a Marlin from 2017-18, both losing seasons for the club, and pitched to a 4.20 ERA during that 304-inning span. The Marlins wound up releasing him heading into last season, which proved to be a disastrous year in the Orioles org for Straily. He’s now with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization.

Meanwhile, Castillo has morphed into an electrifying major league starter. After a respectable first two seasons in Cincy, the heat-throwing Castillo truly came into his own in 2019. The 27-year-old pitched to a 3.40 ERA/3.70 FIP with 10.67 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 across a a personal-best 190 2/3 frames. Along the way, Castillo ranked second among all qualified starters in groundball percentage (55.2) and fourth in swinging-strike percentage (15.9), placing him between Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom. And Statcast loved Castillo’s work, ranking him near the top of the league in several important categories.

The fact that Castillo has evolved into such a standout isn’t wholly surprising. Remember, when the Marlins parted with Castillo, he was regarded as one of their handful of best prospects. Baseball America posited then that Castillo, who was coming off a season of stellar production at the High-A and Double-A levels, had mid-rotation potential. Nevertheless, despite his upside, it was the second time the Marlins had agreed to part with Castillo. They previously tried to send him to the Padres in a notable July 2016 trade, but they got him back after fellow righty Colin Rea’s medicals proved problematic. Had the Castillo aspect of that deal gone through, it also would have blown up in Miami’s face.

It seems fair to say that the Marlins did not properly value Castillo while he was with the organization. The Reds are profiting from that right now. In Cincinnati, Castillo currently finds himself as an integral piece of a quality starting rotation that could help the Reds push for a playoff berth this year (if there is a season). Castillo still has another pre-arbitration campaign left and the Reds have the ability to control him through 2023, making him all the more appealing. If the Reds are going to return to prominence in the near future, there’s a good chance that the Castillo trade will have something to do with it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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