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Giancarlo Stanton Trade Rumors: Monday

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The Giancarlo Stanton trade saga has been one of the top storylines of the offseason, and there’s no end in sight at the time being. To date, the Cardinals and Giants have reportedly submitted formal offers, while the Dodgers and Red Sox have also been linked to the slugger.

We’ll track today’s developments on the Stanton front right here:

  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that other clubs have gotten the sense that there’ll be resolution on the Stanton talks one way or another by the time the Winter Meetings kick off on Dec. 10 (all Twitter links). That is to say, the Marlins will either have traded him by that point or interested parties will have exhausted their patience and begun to explore other possibilities on the trade and free-agent markets. Crasnick also notes that while the Cardinals and Giants are the most-cited suitors, there are other clubs that are in active pursuit of Stanton.

Earlier Updates

  • Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that Stanton has given the Marlins a list of teams to which he’d accept a trade, and the Dodgers are among those teams (all links to Twitter). Per Morosi, the Dodgers and Marlins have discussed some Stanton trade scenarios, but the Giants and Cardinals have shown more focused interest in Stanton. Some teams interested in Stanton feel the Dodgers are his top choice, which could slow negotiations as Stanton could veto any deal until knowing for certain that the Dodgers don’t plan on making a move for him. At this point, however, Stanton has not rejected any trades, according to Morosi.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton

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The latest on Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton comes from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports that the Red Sox currently have “tepid” interest in the NL MVP. Notably, Miami isn’t enamored of Boston’s farm system, per Cafardo, though he notes that the Marlins’ main motivation in trading Stanton would be to rid themselves of his contract. As such, one shouldn’t rule out Stanton to the Red Sox if they’re willing to take on a significant portion of the $295MM coming his way over the next decade.

While it’s unclear how much of Stanton’s deal the Red Sox would be open to absorbing, the Giants are “willing to take on a lot” of it, Cafardo writes. The Giants have shown more interest than anyone else in Stanton, Cafardo hears, and he adds that they’re prepared to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the fourth straight year if necessary. As of now, they and the Cardinals are the only known teams that have submitted offers to the Marlins to acquire Stanton.

What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation

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As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.

He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.

Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.

He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.

The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.

Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.

He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.

The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.

As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.

 

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/24/17

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • The Marlins have added outfielder J.B. Shuck on a minors pact, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. He’s among the incoming players who will compete for jobs in camp with an organization that is expected to make some big changes to its MLB roster. Shuck, 30, owns a lifetime .251/.299/.328 batting line through 1,090 career plate appearances at the game’s highest level. He failed to crack the bigs last year, though, spending the season instead at the Twins’ top affiliate. Shuck carried typically impressive plate discipline numbers (41 walks against 43 strikeouts) but hit just .259/.325/.368 with four home runs through 475 plate appearances.

Marlins To Sign Yadiel Rivera

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The Marlins have reached an agreement with infielder Yadiel Rivera, as Rivera himself announced via his Twitter feed that he is joining the organization.  Rivera elected to become a free agent after he was outrighted off the Brewers’ 40-man roster in late September.

Rivera, 25, was a ninth-round pick for the Brewers in the 2010 amateur draft and he appeared in each of the last three big league seasons, posting just a .434 OPS over 88 career MLB plate appearances.  Hitting has never been Rivera’s calling card, as he owns just a .240/.287/.344 slash line over 3433 career PA in the minors, though he rose to the majors due to his defensive versatility.  Rivera has been a shortstop for the bulk of his career but also spent significant time at second and third base.

Miami is already short on infield depth both at the major and minor league levels, and things could get even thinner if trade chips Dee Gordon and Martin Prado are dealt this winter.  Rivera will give the Marlins some extra depth at least the Triple-A level, with JT Riddle, Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson all in line to get extra duty in the bigs, especially if Gordon and/or Prado are no longer with the club.

Giancarlo Stanton Notes: Opt-Out Clause, Contract Value, No-Trade Clause

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With rumors continuing to swirl around 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Edwards of Fangraphs took a close look at the value of the Marlins outfielder’s opt-out clause, and how it might suppress his trade value. It’s well-known by now that after the 2020 season, Stanton will have the power to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM left on his contract to pursue a new deal. Edwards examines scenarios in which Stanton ages well, normally and poorly, estimating his contract’s potential surplus (or dearth of) value in each instance based on projected WAR output. The obvious conclusion is that Stanton’s opt-out clause negatively impacts his trade value. He would be highly likely to opt out if he ages well or even normally, limiting the value he’d provide to his new team in each case. However, if he ages poorly, he’d most likely opt into the remaining seven years on the contract; in such a case he’d provide negative surplus value over the life of the ten years with his new team. The piece uses a series of charts to make a case. It’s a fascinating read from beginning to end, shedding light on the unique risk teams face in deciding upon the prospect value they’re willing to give up for a player who gets to choose whether to be with them for three years or for an entire decade.

More opinion pieces on Stanton on a slow Thanksgiving afternoon…

  • Earlier this month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs also wrote about Stanton, making the case that teams should be pushing hard to acquire the slugger. Sarris delves into a number of pros: he’s young, he’s not injury prone, he’s capable of incredible offensive output during his prime and his contract could potentially provide $100MM in surplus value if he ages well. The latter point is particularly interesting; Sarris makes the case that part of Stanton’s skill set lies in his plate discipline. Although there’s some swing and miss in the Marlins slugger’s game, he walks a lot and doesn’t often swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Perhaps the most compelling part of Sarris’ case is the fact that Stanton is available at age 28, which is increasingly rare in an era where many of baseball’s superstars don’t become available to acquire while in their twenties.
  • Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which is an even bigger roadblock for the Marlins than his opt-out clause. Buster Olney of ESPN (insider subscription required and recommended) writes that Stanton should take full advantage of this leverage. The Marlins have made it well-known that they want to cut payroll, and trading Stanton is the most obvious way to do that. Meanwhile, a wide variety of teams will want his potential 60-homer power if he comes at their reasonable price. Due to these factors, Stanton has all the power in negotiations, prompting Olney to express that the NL MVP ought to hold out for a trade to whatever team for whom he wishes to play. “Stanton is in no way obligated to the Marlins or their new ownership to solve their debt crisis for them,” Olney writes. “If they bring a proposal to him in the next week or two and Stanton has any reservations about playing for a team he’s not prepared to wholly embrace, he should say no.”

Sherman/Jeter Group Still Seeking Additional Investors

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Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter are still seeking additional investors for their ownership group even after being formally approved as the new owners of the Marlins, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Sherman/Jeter group is still looking to add about $250MM from outside investors, though Heyman notes that the league is “quite comfortable” with the new ownership group’s current financial state. Interestingly, Heyman has obtained some slides from a “teaser” email sent to potential investors in which the Marlins outline a number of “strategic priorities” for improving revenue. Among the new means of revenue to be explored are a new television contract, selling the naming rights to the stadium, new sponsorship/advertising opportunities and an increased focus on utilizing Marlins Park to host non-baseball events (e.g. concerts).

Cardinals Have Asked About Ozuna, Yelich

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  • The Cardinals’ search for an impact bat is expansive, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak and his staff have had discussions with virtually every impact bat on the market, including Eric Hosmer, and their trade talks with the Marlins have gone beyond Giancarlo Stanton and also touched on Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich (presumably not in the same deal). Two execs with other teams told Goold that the Cardinals have been aggressive in trade talks thus far. “We’ve got capacity to increase our payroll depending on the right situation,” owner Bill DeWitt Jr. tells Goold.

Derek Jeter Learning On The Job As Marlins CEO

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  • Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel takes an interesting look at Marlins CEO Derek Jeter’s crash course in running a baseball front office. Jeter has called the move “overwhelming” in the same way it was to finally reach the majors as a player, acknowledging he’ll have to “learn on the job” to a large extent. President of baseball ops Michael Hill suggests the two have established a good working relationship out of the gates. As ever, the proof will be in the doing; the Marlins made a small swap yesterday, but have much bigger fish to fry this winter.

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

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As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…

Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …

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