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Royals Explored Trades Involving Salvador Perez

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Longtime Royals catcher Salvador Perez looks to have been an under-the-radar trade candidate heading into the deadline, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that the Marlins and White Sox each had interest, and the Padres also “checked on” the backstop, as per the Post’s Jon Heyman.  The Marlins might have been relatively closest to making something happen, as The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports that Perez was “open to” playing in Florida (where he lives), and Miami and K.C. revisited talks this afternoon but a deal didn’t emerge.

On paper, it isn’t surprising that a non-contender like the Royals looking into moving a high-salaried veteran player.  However, the fact that Perez was discussed to even some extent counts as a bit of a surprise, given his longstanding status as the face of the Royals franchise.  In mid-June, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo flatly denied the possibility of such a move, saying the Royals didn’t “have any intention of trading Salvy and it’s not something we are looking to do,”  and that “he has told us over and over again he wants to be a Royal his whole career.”

Perez is a 10-and-5 player, meaning that he achieved full no-trade protection by achieving 10 years of MLB service time and five years with the same team.  He could’ve therefore vetoed any proposal, but it creates an interesting question of what scenario arose first — Perez telling the Royals he was open to being dealt in the right scenario, or the Royals approaching Perez with any offers received.

Of course, the extent of the talks with any of these three clubs isn’t known, as even the negotiations with the Marlins might’ve been little more than due diligence.  Miami and San Diego both known to be looking for catching upgrades, and given the thin market for quality backstops, it makes sense that each team would at least place a call to Kansas City, even if the chances of a Perez trade might have been remote.

The White Sox are a more surprising suitor, and it seems unlikely that Perez might have agreed to join another AL Central team.  According to Sherman, Sox manager Pedro Grifol might’ve been a factor in trying to bring his old friend to town, as Grifol spent a decade on the K.C. coaching staff before being hired by Chicago.  The White Sox saw Perez as a replacement for Yasmani Grandal, who is a free agent after the season and was surely a trade candidate in his own right as the Sox looked to rebuild, though Grandal was one of the few pending White Sox free agents who wasn’t moved at the deadline.

If Perez and the Royals are perhaps considering parting ways, it adds an interesting wrinkle to the offseason trade market.  Given how badly the Royals have stumbled this season, Perez might feel that the team won’t be able to contend again before his contract is up, so he might be more open to joining a contender for the latter stages of his career.  From the Royals’ perspective, losing the 33-year-old Perez would represent the end of an era in K.C. baseball, but it might be a decision the team is ready to make if it has to reboot what looks like a stalled rebuild plan.

Perez is still owed at least $44MM through the 2025 season ($42MM in salary and a $2MM buyout of a $13.5MM club option for 2026), so he would be a pricey addition for any team.  There is also the fact that Perez is having a down year, hitting .246/.288/.427 with 17 homers (and 89 wRC+) over 396 plate appearances and posting subpar defensive numbers according to both Statcast and Fangraphs’ metrics.  It could be that Perez might be recharged with a change of scenery, or he might simply be starting to wear down after 12 MLB seasons.

Marlins Acquire Josh Bell; Guardians Receive Kahlil Watson, Will Release Jean Segura

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The Marlins announced the acquisition of first baseman Josh Bell from the Guardians. Cleveland agreed to take on the contract of infielder Jean Segura — whom they intend to release — while acquiring infield prospect Kahlil Watson.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap that continues a surprisingly active day for the Marlins. Miami shipped out pitching prospect Jake Eder to install Jake Burger at the hot corner. That apparently set the stage for them to move on from Segura, whose two-year free agent contract didn’t work at all as the club had envisioned.

That was a means of adding offense at one corner infield spot. They’ll hope for the same across the diamond, as they swapped in Bell for Garrett Cooper. Miami dealt their incumbent first baseman to the Padres for starting pitcher Ryan Weathers.

The series of moves results in a buy-low flier on Bell. As with Segura, he signed an ill-fated two-year free agent deal last offseason. The Guardians guaranteed the switch-hitter a two-year, $33MM pact. He can opt out of the deal at the end of the first season. It’s all but a given he’ll elect to play out the contract given the way in which his time in Cleveland transpired.

Bell is hitting .233/.318/.383 over 393 trips to the plate. His 10.9% walk percentage and 20.6% strikeout rate are both solid, but his batted ball results are middling. Bell has managed just 11 home runs and a .272 batting average on balls in play. As has been an issue throughout his career, he’s had a tough time elevating the ball. Bell is putting the ball on the ground at a lofty 48.5% clip, an obviously suboptimal number for a player whose game is built around power.

Still, the high grounder tallies are nothing new. He’s had plenty of success in spite of a propensity for low-angle contact. He combined for a .264/.355/.448 line in more than 1200 plate appearances between 2021-22. At his best, he’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat. Miami will obviously hope for a return to form in a new environment.

Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff clearly believe there’s more untapped potential remaining for Bell than with Segura. The Fish had signed the longtime second baseman to a two-year, $17MM pact with a plan to bump him to third base. It was a risk defensively that hasn’t paid off, as the veteran received well below-average marks for his 720 1/3 innings at the hot corner.

More concerning, Segura didn’t bring anything approaching his previous offensive form. He’s long been a slightly above-average hitter, combining double-digit homer power with excellent contact skills. This was his worst offensive season, however, as he managed only a .219/.277/.279 showing through 326 plate appearances as a Marlin.

Segura’s underlying offensive marks aren’t that far off those of previous seasons. His 38.8% hard contact rate is a near match for last year’s mark. That’s also true of his 6.7% walk percentage and 14.4% strikeout rate. Segura’s results simply weren’t up to par and the Fish elected to move on.

Given that Cleveland is immediately releasing Segura, his inclusion in the trade is strictly a financial measure. Bell is making $16.5MM this season and next. Segura is making $6.5MM this year and $8.5MM next season, as well as a $2MM buyout on a 2025 option. Bell is owed roughly $5.41MM through season’s end; Segura will make $2.13MM down the stretch. Miami takes on roughly $3.28MM this year and $6MM beyond this season to upgrade from Segura to Bell.

Segura will go unclaimed on release waivers in the next couple days. The Guardians will pay out almost all of his remaining contract. Once he clears waivers and becomes a free agent, Segura will be free to choose his next employer. That signing team would only pay him the prorated portion of the league minimum for whatever time he spends on a big league roster over the next season and a half.

In addition to the financial relief, the Guardians are buying low on a one-time top prospect. Watson, a 20-year-old infielder, was the 16th overall pick in the 2021 draft. The high school product was widely regarded as a top five to ten player in the class on talent, only dropping to the middle of the first round because of a lofty bonus demand.

His first two full seasons in pro ball haven’t gone as anticipated. Watson struck out in nearly 36% of his plate appearances in Low-A a year ago, hitting .231/.296/.395 over 83 games. He also missed some time last season on a team-imposed disciplinary absence after a confrontation with an umpire, as Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in his write-up of Miami’s farm system.

Watson still ranked in the upper third of the Marlins’ top 30 prospects at both FanGraphs and Baseball America, though he’s no longer seen as a top 100 talent around the league. He’s hitting .206/.337/.362 over 243 trips to the plate in High-A this year. He’s connected on seven homers, walked at an elite 14.4% clip and stolen 14 bases. Yet he’s still striking out an alarming rate — 28% of the time. There’s clearly plenty of variability in Watson’s profile, but he has huge bat speed and the chance to stick at a middle infield position. It’s an upside play for Cleveland at a much lower cost than would’ve been required to pry him away 12 to 18 months ago.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the Marlins were acquiring Bell. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Guardians were receiving Segura and Watson.  Zack Meisel of the Athletic reported the Guardians planned to release Segura.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Acquire Garrett Cooper

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The Padres have acquired first baseman Garrett Cooper and minor league lefty Sean Reynolds from the Marlins in exchange for left-hander Ryan Weathers, per an announcement from both teams. San Diego designated outfielder Preston Tucker for assignment in a corresponding roster move.

Cooper, 32, will give the Padres a seasoned bench bat with a productive track record at the big league level. He’s picked up five-plus years of MLB service to this point in his career, making him a free agent at season’s end and a pure rental for San Diego, but one who has more often than not been a quietly strong offensive performer.

Although Cooper’s .256/.296/.426 batting line in 2023 doesn’t stand out, it’s only narrowly been worse than league average, by measure of wRC+ (97). Moreover, Cooper’s bat has picked up as the season has worn on. Dating back to June 1, he’s posted a far more palatable .276/.319/.468 batting line with eight big flies and six doubles. That’s good for a 115 wRC+ (i.e. about 15% better than league-average production, after weighting for home park) — which is right in line with Cooper’s career output.

Since making his MLB debut with the Yankees back in 2017, Cooper owns a .271/.338/.437 batting line in nearly 1700 trips to the plate. He’s been particularly productive with the Marlins in the past few seasons, batting .271/.352/.443 from 2020-22. Cooper has never had massive over-the-fence power but hits plenty of doubles and from 2018-22 drew walks at a healthy 9% clip.

Perhaps “healthy” is a dicey word to use in any regard when describing Cooper, as the primary knock against him as been a penchant to land on the injured list. Since 2018, Cooper has been on the injured list due to a wrist sprain, a calf strain, a lumbar strain, an elbow sprain, a concussion and an inner ear infection, among other maladies. Productive as his bat has been, he’s never logged more than 119 games or 469 plate appearances in a single season.

Cooper is healthy right now, however, and the Padres have gotten little to no production out of their bench this year. Veterans Rougned Odor (recently released), Nelson Cruz (released) and Matt Carpenter have provided no help, and the Friars have relied on a combination of journeymen and organizational depth pieces (e.g. Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, Taylor Kohlwey) in the other spots. Cooper’s above-average track record at the dish will be a significant boost, and he can slide in at first base if the Padres need to push Jake Cronenworth to second base to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim’s recent injury.

In addition to Cooper, the Padres will pick up the 25-year-old Reynolds — a 2016 fourth-round pick and converted first baseman/outfielder who’s emerged as an interesting bullpen prospect. The 25-year-old Reynolds made the move to the mound full time in 2021 and has found a good bit of success in the upper minors. Through 48 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season, the 6’8″ left-hander has pitched to a 2.77 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and just two homers allowed. Reynolds features a four-seamer in the mid-to-upper 90s, a mid-80s slider and a changeup.

In exchange for the final couple months of Cooper’s services and a potential six seasons of control over Reynolds, the Marlins will pick up the 23-year-old Weathers — a former first-round pick and top Padres prospect who’s long looked like a change-of-scenery candidate. He’s seen action in each of the past three seasons, but other than his rookie campaign when injuries forced him to the Majors as a 21-year-old, Weathers has never received a particularly long look.

In 143 big league innings, Weathers has a 5.73 ERA. He’s fanned just 16.8% of his opponents but sports a respectable 8.3% walk rate and 42.9% ground-ball rate in that time. He’s also pitched decently in 40 2/3 Triple-A innings this season — 4.20 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate, 13.5% walk rate in eight starts — and has a minor league option remaining beyond the current year. The Marlins’ vaunted pitching depth has been thinned out by the trades of Pablo Lopez and (earlier today) Jake Eder, as well as injuries to Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer and Sixto Sanchez. Weathers will add a former No. 7 overall pick to the stockpile, and the Marlins can take this year and next to try to coax some better performance out of the lefty.

As for the 33-year-old Tucker, he’ll lose his 40-man spot before appearing in a big league game with the Padres. The older brother of Astros star Kyle Tucker, Preston was once a well-regarded prospect himself but has never found sustained success in the minor leagues. He had a nice three-year run with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization from 2019-21 and has a career .274/.353/.471 slash in parts of eight Triple-A seasons — including a .293/.433/.565 showing so far in 2023.

However, the elder Tucker brother carries just a .222/.281/.403 slash in parts of three Major League seasons, and the Padres’ acquisitions of Cooper and Ji-Man Choi have beefed up their reserve options a bit. That left Tucker without a clear role moving forward. Normally, players who are designated for assignment have a week to be traded, placed on outright waivers or released. But, since the trade deadline has now passed and Tucker has been on a 40-man roster this year, he’s ineligible to be moved. He’ll hit waivers within the next week and be available to all 29 other clubs. Even if he clears, he’d have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the trade.

Marlins To Acquire Jake Burger

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The Marlins and White Sox have agreed to a deal sending infielder Jake Burger from Chicago to Miami in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Jake Eder, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter links).

It’s a surprise deal given that the White Sox’ focus has generally been on trading short-term assets during their summer sell-off. Burger, 27, will be controllable for another five years beyond the current season and is batting .214/.279/.527. He’s already slugged a whopping 25 home runs on the season but also has the fifth-worst on-base percentage and sixth-highest strikeout rate (31.6%) of any player in the Majors (min. 300 plate appearances). The Marlins, with MLB’s third-fewest home runs (96 total), seemingly view those as acceptable trade-offs to add some pop to lineup that’s heavily reliant on stringing hits together.

Where Burger will line up on the diamond remains to be seen. He’s played primarily third base in his young big league career but drawn poor ratings there (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -8 Outs Above Average, -3.6 Ultimate Zone Rating). Miami has been using the struggling Jean Segura at the hot corner and could certainly supplant him with Burger’s power bat, but Burger also has experience at second base and first base. The Fish currently have Garrett Cooper taking the bulk of the reps at first, but he’s in his final season of club control and has been a trade candidate at each of the past couple deadlines.

Whether Burger immediately begins to step into a more prominent role at first base or splits his time between the infield corners and designated hitter, he’ll give the Marlins an immediate jolt of power. Looking beyond the 2023 season, both the first base and designated hitter slots in the lineup figure to be vacant; Cooper is a free agent, and while Jorge Soler is technically signed through 2024, he can also opt out of the final one year and $9MM of his contract at the end of the current season.

Subtracting Burger from the White Sox’ long-term outlook obviously takes away a good bit of power potential, but if the club isn’t sold on his defensive acumen at third base then he becomes a tough fit. Chicago has Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez locked in as long-term options at first base and designated hitter, respectively, so it could prove difficult to find Burger regular at-bats if his glove is indeed a prominent concern.

It’s also possible that the Sox simply felt Eder too talented a prospect to pass up on when presented the opportunity to acquire him. The 2020 fourth-round pick had pitched his way into top-100 prospect status prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery and has already made his way to the Double-A level this year upon returning. Eder, a Vanderbilt product, posted a 1.17 ERA in 71 1/3 innings in his first pro season before going under the knife, and he’s returned with 39 1/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball. FanGraphs has already plugged him right back into their top-100 list, ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 54 prospect in baseball.

Scouting reports on Eder tout his mid-90s heater and a slider that FanGraphs touts as “one of the nastiest pitches on the planet.” Eder also has a changeup that’s well behind his header and breaking ball, but both BA and FanGraphs agree it can be an average pitch with further refinement. There are certainly some concerns for any young pitcher coming off major arm surgery, and Eder’s 12.5% walk rate will need to be refined. However, he’s already pitching in Double-A, and it’s feasible that he could be an option for the ChiSox as soon as next season. He might be on something of a limited workload next year, depending on how high his innings total climbs this year, but he’ll immediately become the system’s top pitching prospect.

Rays, Rangers, Diamondbacks Interested In Catchers

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With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, there are still many moving pieces. Joel Sherman of The New York Post (Twitter links) reports that the Rays, Marlins, Rangers and Diamondbacks are in the catching market, with Austin Hedges of the Pirates a speculative fit. It was reported in June that the Marlins were keeping an eye on the catching market.

Hedges, 30, has never provided much offensively, with a career batting line of .189/.247/.323 dating back to 2015. This year’s line of .180/.237/.230 is even lower than his career output. But he’s always garnered attention as a glove-first backstop. He has career tallies of 83 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 77.3 from the FanGraphs framing metric. The former figure is tops in the majors for that stretch while the latter places him third.

Despite that strong defensive work, there would be logic in the Pirates moving on. They are currently nine games out of a playoff spot with a record of 47-58. Hedges is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is an impending free agent. They have already traded another impending free agent in Carlos Santana and reportedly have a deal in place to send Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi to the Padres as they approach the open market as well. With catching prospects Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez already at the big league level, it makes sense to send Hedges elsewhere and let those two take the reins.

The listed suitors all make sense due to recent injuries. The Rays lost Francisco Mejía to a left knee MCL sprain about two weeks ago, leaving them with Christian Bethancourt and René Pinto as the only healthy backstops on their 40-man roster. The Diamondbacks are in a similar position after placing Gabriel Moreno on the IL about a week ago due to shoulder inflammation, leaving them with Carson Kelly and José Herrera. The Rangers recently lost Jonah Heim to the injured list due to a wrist issue and surgery is still possible, leaving them with Mitch Garver and Sam Huff as their health options on the roster.

Any of those clubs would be a sensible addition for extra catching help, as they are each currently in possession of a playoff spot. Apart from Hedges, some catchers that could be available include Yasmani Grandal, Elias Díaz, Joey Bart, Víctor Caratini, Iván Herrera, Tom Murphy and Omar Narváez.

Nationals Claim Robert Garcia

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The Nationals claimed left-hander Robert Garcia off waivers from the Marlins this afternoon, per a team announcement. There had been no previous public indication that Garcia, who the Marlins selected to the roster in early July, had been placed on waivers, but the move opens up a spot on the club’s 40-man roster. There’s no need for a corresponding move on the part of the Nationals, as a spot 0n their 40-man was opened by yesterday’s Jeimer Candelario trade.

Garcia, 27, made his major league debut with the Marlins earlier this year, though he recorded just one out in his only appearance while surrendering a hit and a walk. While Garcia has virtually no major league experience, he’s pitched well during his time in the minors with a 2.85 ERA in 41 1/3 innings of work with a 35.4% strikeout rate at the Triple-A level. That kind of strikeout ability could certainly prove valuable to a Nationals club that currently relies on Jose Ferrer and Joe La Sora, both of whom sport ERAs north of five, as their left-handed bullpen options.

As for the Marlins, the club will now have additional 40-man roster flexibility as they head into the final hours before the trade deadline. While Garcia certainly appears to be a useful, optionable relief arm, Miami has a well-stocked bullpen that has A.J. Puk, Tanner Scott, and Steven Okert as options from the left side and recently added late-inning arms in David Robertson and Jorge Lopez to the mix.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Brewers, Marlins Interested In Eloy Jimenez

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With the White Sox in seller mode and already dealing away pending free agents, teams are also inquiring about some longer-term players.  According to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Brewers and Marlins have both shown interest in outfielder Eloy Jimenez, who is under contract through at least the 2024 season (and controllable through 2026 via two club option years).

There isn’t any indication that Jimenez is being shopped, and reports earlier this month suggested that Jimenez was one of four players (along with Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, and Andrew Vaughn) as virtually untouchable.  It is therefore possible that the interest from Milwaukee and Miami was simple due diligence, just in case the Sox were becoming more open to the idea of a wider-scale rebuild.

The White Sox haven’t been solely trading rental players, as Kendall Graveman (dealt yesterday to the Astros) is still under contract through 2024.  But needless to say, moving Jimenez would be quite a different situation, as Chicago would be parting ways with a cornerstone player.  The Sox signed Jimenez to his six-year, $43MM deal in March 2019 before he had even made his MLB debut, speaking to the confidence the front office had in the outfielder’s potential to lead the club into a new era of winning.

While the club’s on-field success has been limited, Jimenez has held up his end of the bargain at the plate.  His .285/.328/.478 slash line over 293 plate appearances this season is pretty close to his overall career line over 1581 PA, but Jimenez’s problem has been just getting onto the field.  A ruptured left pectoral tendon cost him over half of the 2021 campaign, and he missed two months of the 2022 season due to a hamstring injury.  In 2023, Jimenez has missed roughly a month due to both another minor hamstring issue and an appendectomy.

Jimenez’s lack of defensive value is another issue, as he has posted generally below-average grades as a left fielder.  With a number of DH days also required to keep him healthy, there is concern that Jimenez might already be trending towards being a DH-only player before his 27th birthday.  This being said, there is still obvious reason why the Brewers, Marlins, or any number of teams would be interested in adding a young, above-average hitter to their lineups, especially at his price point.  Jimenez is owed $13MM in 2024, and there are $3MM buyouts both his 2025 club option ($16.5MM) and 2026 option ($18.5MM).

Christian Yelich has been locked into Milwaukee’s left field position, so the Brewers could either test Yelich or Jimenez in right field in the event of a trade.  The likelier possibility is that the Brewers would just use Jimenez primarily as a DH, adding some thump to a lineup that has struggled to generate offense this season.

Despite the lack of pop, the Brewers have ridden solid pitching (and a somewhat weak division) to first place in the NL Central.  The Brew Crew already picked up Carlos Santana from the Pirates to help address first base, and Will Sammon and Tim Britton of The Athletic report that the Brewers also have interest in Mets outfielder Mark Canha.

The Marlins are similarly hanging in the wild card race without much lineup, particularly in the power department.  With Jorge Soler playing mostly as a DH, Miami is more apt to use Jimenez as a left fielder.  This might create something of a logjam once Jazz Chisholm Jr. returns from the injured list, but that’s a problem the Marlins are probably happy to have if it means having more offensive options in play.

Marlins Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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With at least three teams already known to be interested in Tigers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports a fourth, noting that the Marlins are also in the mix.  This tracks with yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that Miami is on the lookout for starting pitching help.

The Marlins landed David Robertson from the Mets on Thursday, bolstering the relief corps for what the Fish hope will be a successful playoff run.  Miami headed into the All-Star break with a 53-39 record and a solid grip on a wild card berth, yet an eight-game losing streak after the break undid a lot of that success.  Now 56-48 after last night’s win over the Tigers, the Marlins are tied with the Giants for the last NL wild card slot, just a half-game behind the Phillies and Reds and a game up on the Diamondbacks.

While facing Detroit for this three-game series, the Marlins might also come away with one of their best starters.  Lorenzen has a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings this season, aided by a solid 6.5% walk rate and a fastball with outstanding spin rate, if relatively average in velocity (94.3mph).  Lorenzen’s .264 BABIP and his below-average 19.9% strikeout rate are factors in his higher 4.45 SIERA, but it is worth noting that he has been particularly sharp over his last four starts.  The righty has a 1.14 ERA over 23 2/3 innings during those four outings, putting on a nice showcase for rival scouts.

A four-game losing streak has all but erased whatever small hope the Tigers have of making a late run in the AL Central, as Detroit is now 46-58 and 7.5 games out of first place.  Besides Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chasen Shreve, and Jose Cisnero have also been targets for other teams, and all four of these players will be free agents after the season (Rodriguez has an opt-out clause in his contract that he is expected to exercise).

Between Lorenzen’s rental status and the relatively inexpensive $3MM still owed to him in 2023 salary, he makes an attractive pickup option for just about any contender, particularly a Marlins team that is willing to spend but probably unlikely to truly splurge.  Miami took on approximately $3.55MM in Robertson’s remaining salary, but the team’s overall payroll still sits below the $106.5MM threshold.

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

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