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Marlins Extend Miguel Rojas Through 2023

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TODAY: The Marlins officially announced Rojas’ extension.

OCTOBER 27: The Marlins are keeping their shortstop around for an extra season, agreeing to an extension with Miguel Rojas that’ll keep him under contract through 2023. Rojas, who had already locked in a $5.5MM salary for the 2022 season when he triggered a vesting option in September, is reportedly signing a two-year, $10MM deal.

Miguel Rojas | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

It effectively amounts to the Marlins tacking on an additional year and $4.5MM for what will be Rojas’ age-34 season. The deal does not contain any option years. Rojas, who is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, recently indicated in an appearance on Chris Rose’s podcast that an extension was in the works. He has previously voiced a desire to spend his entire career with the Marlins, and the front office has similarly expressed interest in keeping the clubhouse leader in Miami.

The 32-year-old Rojas saw his bat come back down closer to his career levels after a monster showing at the dish during the 2020 season. Typically a bit below-average with the bat but exceptional with the glove, Rojas erupted with a .304/.392/.496 showing last summer — albeit in a sample of just 143 plate appearances. That said, this year’s .265/.322/.392 showing in 539 trips to the plate was still a solid mark (97 wRC+), and if you take the last three seasons in the aggregate, Rojas has effectively been a league-average hitter.

League-average offense for a player of Rojas’ defensive aptitude is hardly anything to scoff at. Defensive Runs Saved pegged Rojas at plus-4 for the 2021 season and as a plus-20 defender in 4445 career innings at the position, while Rojas notched a 4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2021 and carries a lifetime 28.5 mark in that regard. Statcast’s Outs Above Average is less bullish on his glovework but pegs him as at least an average defender over the past several seasons. Rojas also has ample experience at second base and third base in his career, so he could eventually slide into a utility role — although all current indications are that he’ll reprise his role as starting shortstop in 2022.

A Rojas extension gets some offseason business out of the way early for the Marlins and locks in a bargain source of cost certainty for the 2023 campaign. That’s likely quite notable for the Fish, who are angling to spend some money in free agency this winter but will surely be operating with some degree of financial constraints. CEO Derek Jeter has voiced an expectation that the Marlins will be “pretty active” for the first time under this ownership group.

Time will tell how that vague description from Jeter is defined relative to other “active” teams in free agency. The Marlins are expected to seek long-term options at catcher and in center field, and they could certainly be in the mix for a corner outfielder to pair with promising young Jesus Sanchez. At the moment, Rojas and right-hander Anthony Bass ($3MM) are the only players on guaranteed contracts in 2022. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects an arbitration class in the vicinity of $34.5MM, and Miami will still owe $3MM to the Yankees under the terms of the Giancarlo Stanton trade.

With a projected payroll in the $55-56MM range, there does appear to be room to add — the question is just how high the Jeter/Bruce Sherman ownership group is willing to push payroll. Presumably, they’ll look for a gradual year-over-year increase rather than soaring to their max budget right out of the gates. However they proceed, they can now do so with the certainty that their ostensible team captain is under control for an extra season.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the Marlins and Rojas were in agreement on an extension. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported it was a two-year, $10MM deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post added that the contract did not contain any options.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Coaching Notes: McLeod, Dozier, Hillman, Rodriguez

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Cubs senior vice president of player personnel Jason McLeod is departing the organization, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Mooney says that McLeod, whose contract is up at the end of the month, “declined an offer to remain with the Cubs.” McLeod may not be a household name, but he’s been an instrumental part of baseball’s recent history. Theo Epstein was hired to be the Cubs’ president of baseball operations in October 2011, with McLeod and Jed Hoyer coming along two weeks later. The trio, who had all previously worked together in Boston, helped build the recent Cubs dynasty that broke the century-old curse with their 2016 World Series championship. The triumvirate was broken up with Epstein’s resignation a year ago. Hoyer was then promoted from general manager to take Epstein’s place as president. Although Hoyer delayed naming a replacement GM because of the pandemic, it was recently announced that it would be Carter Hawkins, who had previously been with Cleveland. In past years, McLeod has been frequently connected to other general manager positions in rumors but had stayed in his senior VP role with the Cubs until now.

Other coaching notes from around the league…

  • It was less than a year ago that Brian Dozier announced his retirement from playing, and now he wants to get right back into a dugout as a manager. In a conversation with Robert Murray of FanSided, Dozier discusses his ambitions and says, “Even though I don’t want to play anymore, I feel as if I have a lot more to give in the sense of managing. For me, I’ve always taken a lot of pride in being a leader on and off the field and learning from managers that I’ve had on things to do and not to do. I’ve always had a desire to manage.” Dozier goes on to discuss various topics related to managing, such as analytics and communication. He says that he has not yet talked to any teams about managing but wanted to put his intentions out in the open. Dozier is 34 years old, turning 35 in May, and would easily be the youngest manager in the league, if hired. (Rocco Baldelli and Luis Rojas were the youngest this year at 39.) However, there’s at least some recent precedent for a manager getting hired in his mid-30s. Baldelli was 37 when he was first hired. Kevin Cash was hired just before his 37th birthday. A.J. Hinch and Eric Wedge were both approaching their respective 35th birthdays when their hirings were first announced, Hinch with Arizona in 2009 and Wedge with Cleveland in 2002.
  • The Marlins are losing a couple members of their coaching staff, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Third base coach Trey Hillman and assistant hitting coach Robert Rodriguez are both leaving to pursue other opportunities. This concludes a three-year term in the organization for Hillman, who was hired before the 2019 campaign. He has some managerial experience, having been the bench boss for the Royals, as well as the NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters and the SK Wyverns of the KBO. Rodriguez previously managed the Gulf Coast League Marlins and was promoted to the big league club prior to the 2020 season.

Marlins Outright Four Off 40-Man Roster

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The Marlins have outrighted infielders Eddy Alvarez and Deven Marrero and right-handers Preston Guilmet and Andrew Bellatti off their 40-man roster, tweets Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The Fish now have 36 players on the 40-man roster, but with seven players on the 60-day injured list, they’ll still need to clear three more spots to reinstate all of their injured players between now and the conclusion of the postseason. All four players will be eligible for minor league free agency.

Of the two infielders, Alvarez saw significantly more action in 2021, compiling a .188/.297/.328 line across 74 plate appearances. He also made a few headlines in both 2020 and 2021: first when he became the first Winter Olympic medalist to appear in a Major League Game (he won a silver medal in speed skating at the 2014 Sochi Games), then again when he became the third American to medal in both the Summer and Winter Olympics (he was a member of the silver-winning USA baseball squad in this summer’s Tokyo Games).

Marrero, a first-round pick of the Red Sox in 2012, put together a similar .188/.316/.375 line across just 19 PAs. He’s seen big-league action in six seasons (three with Boston, one with Arizona, and two with Miami) but has never managed to put together an extended run of production. Across a career-high 188 PAs for the BoSox in 2017, he managed only a meager .211/.259/.333 triple-slash. He hasn’t managed much more in the minors (he has a .623 OPS across 490 games in Triple-A) but remains a plus defender and could get a chance to catch on elsewhere.

Like Marrero, neither Guilmet nor Bellatti saw much time on the field for the Marlins. Guilmet covered only two innings (4.50 ERA) in two appearances, while Bellatti was roughed up (13.50 ERA) in a tiny sample of 3 1/3 IP in three trips to the mound. Guilmet’s track record is much longer, appearing with seven clubs across five big-league seasons, but he’s never seen more innings than the 10 1/3 he covered for Baltimore in 2014.

Bellatti’s brief run in 2021 was his first in the bigs since he posted a strong 2.31 ERA (albeit with a 5.23 FIP) across 23 1/3 innings for the Rays in 2015 before injuries derailed his career. He was out of baseball entirely in 2017 and ’18 before latching on with the Yankees Double-A affiliate in 2019 (after a single outing with the Atlantic League’s Sugar Land Skeeters) and ultimately getting the call from the Marlins this year.

Looking For The Next Marlins Catcher

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In a recent post, I looked at some potential landing spots for Willson Contreras, should the Cubs decide to move him. A few commenters expressed surprise that the Marlins weren’t on the list. While it’s true that Miami could use a new backstop, and has been rumored to have interest in Contreras in the past, my logic for leaving them off the list was that I expect they will target a catcher with more control than Contreras, who would be a pure rental. While it’s possible they could trade for Contreras and then sign him to an extension, that wouldn’t be cheap, especially for a club that has been stripping payroll down in recent years. It seems more likely that they will target a catcher that matches their current core.

With Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo and others, the club has a solid core of players that are between the ages of 23 and 27, and all come with at least three years of control. They also have five prospects on both the MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs Top 100, as well as six on Baseball America’s list. The club has everything in place to open a competitive window soon, but after going 67-95 in 2021, it’s probably too soon to be going after a win-now piece like Contreras.

In the first few months of 2021, most of Miami’s playing time behind the plate went to Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon and Chad Wallach. With none of those three locking down the job, the club acquired a couple of catchers at the trade deadline, trading Adam Duvall to Atlanta for Alex Jackson as well as sending John Curtiss to Milwaukee for Payton Henry. Down the stretch, Jackson was given 30 starts as a catcher and Henry got five, but neither did enough to secure the position. Nick Fortes played better than both of them, but in a small sample of just 14 games that doesn’t align with his minor league track record. The position still seems to be wide open with the club looking for outside upgrades, as manager Don Mattingly admitted when discussing the situation a few weeks ago. But since there’s a weak free agent class and the Marlins have about a dozen viable starting pitchers, there should be plenty of avenues for trade discussions this winter. Let’s dig into some options.

Blue Jays: The Canadian birds are loaded with young, cheap, controllable catchers, with varying degrees of appeal. Danny Jansen is entering his age-27 season, which will be his first of three arbitration years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz recently projected his salary will be a modest $1.5MM. He dealt with various injuries in 2021 and only got into 70 games, but hit 11 home runs in that time and slashed .223/299/.473, producing a wRC of 105 and 1.4 fWAR. Reese McGuire got a lot of playing time when Jansen was hurt, getting into 78 games and hitting .253/.310/.343, for a wRC+ of 78 and 1.3 fWAR. He’ll turn 27 in March, has just over two years of service time and is therefore one season away from arbitration and four away from free agency. Alejandro Kirk also spent some time on the IL and only got into 60 games. He hit .242/.328/.436 for a wRC+ of 106 and 0.7 fWAR. He’ll turn 23 in November and has five years of team control remaining. On top of those three MLB-ready options, the club also has one of the best catching prospects in the majors in Gabriel Moreno. Baseball America lists him as the 8th overall prospect and the second-highest catcher, behind only Adley Rutschman. MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs both have him as the 32nd overall prospect. Though he hasn’t reached the big leagues yet, he finished 2021 at Triple-A and will be appearing in this year’s Arizona Fall League. With the Blue Jays losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz to free agency, they could perhaps part with one of these catchers in exchange for one of the dozen or so starting pitchers that the Marlins have to offer.

Atlanta: Travis d’Arnaud recently signed an extension, agreeing to stay in Atlanta through at least 2023, with a club option for 2024. With d’Arnaud seemingly lined up to be the go-to catcher for the next few years, that could put a squeeze on some of the other options in the organization. William Contreras is still a few months away from his 24th birthday but has gotten into 56 big-league games already. In that time, he’s hit .225/.308/.405, for a wRC+ of 89. He has six years of team control remaining. Waiver claim Chadwick Tromp is on hand as a depth option. And then there’s Shea Langeliers, the club’s best catching prospect. Baseball America ranks him the 68th best overall prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline has him 69th, and FanGraphs ranks him 52nd. He played most of this season at Double-A and even got into five Triple-A games. Despite already trading Alex Jackson to Miami a few months ago, they might be able to do line up on another deal.

Tigers: Eric Haase had a breakout campaign in 2021, his age-28 season. In 98 games, he bopped 22 homers and produced an overall line of .231/.286/.429, wRC+ of 100 and 1.0 fWAR. He has five years of team control remaining. Jake Rogers was enjoying a nice breakout before an injury shut him down, eventually leading to Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out for at least part of the 2022 campaign. In 38 games in 2021 before the injury, he hit .239/.306/.496, wRC+ of 115 and 1.0 fWAR. He also has five years of team control remaining. The club also has Dustin Garneau and Grayson Greiner on hand, who both made decent contributions in their limited action in 2021. There’s also the Dillon Dingler factor, as the prospect finished the season at Double-A. FanGraphs lists him as the 73rd-best prospect in baseball. Given all these competent options, they could subtract someone and still feel good about their situation behind the plate. Perhaps Miami would be willing to take on Rogers and give Alex Jackson a chance to prove himself until Rogers is healthy. Although they’ve been in rebuild mode for a few years, it seems like the Tigers will attempt to return to contention in 2022. They have lots of intriguing young arms but lost Wily Peralta to free agency and may not get anything from Spencer Turnbull or Matthew Boyd next year because of injuries. One of those Miami arms would make a great fit in Detroit.

Padres: The Friars have a couple of adequate catchers in the majors, Victor Caratini and Austin Nola. Caratini had a down year in 2021 but still has passable numbers of the past few campaigns. From 2019 to 2021, his overall line is .244/.327/.368, wRC+ of 86. 2022 will be his second of three arbitration years, with MLBTR projecting a salary of $2.1MM for the 28-year-old. Nola, on the other hand, is still a year away from arbitration and has four years of team control remaining. In 183 games over the past three seasons, his slash line is .271/.345/.435, for a wRC+ of 114 and 4.2 fWAR. And the picture gets crowded when we consider Luis Campusano. He’s ranked as the 32nd prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 37th by MLB Pipeline and 15th by FanGraphs. The 23-year-old has already had a cup of coffee at the majors, getting into 12 games for San Diego. Since they are running franchise-record payrolls of late, trading a catcher could be a way to upgrade their roster without breaking the bank.

Twins: Even with a terrible showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, Mitch Garver is still on a solid four-year run for the Twins. From 2018-2021, his line is .259/.344/.501, wRC+ of 125 and 6.3 fWAR. He has two seasons of team control remaining and is projected by MLBTR to earn $3.1MM in arbitration next year. Ryan Jeffers had a solid debut in 2020, but took a bit of a step backward in 2021. However, he’s still only 24 years old and comes with five years of control. His overall slash line between 2020 and 2021 is .221/.285/.407, producing a wRC+ of 88 and 1.1 fWAR in 111 games. They also have Ben Rortvedt on hand, who made his debut in 2021. He didn’t show much with the bat, but it was a small sample size of 39 games, and he has much better offensive numbers in the minors. He just turned 24 and has six years of team control remaining. He’s also left-handed, with Garver and Jeffers both being righties. 2021 was an awful campaign for the Twins but all indicators suggest they’re hoping to immediately return to competing in 2022. The rotation lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to injury, leaving plenty of room for a new acquisition.

Pirates: Pittsburgh hopes that its catcher of the future is Henry Davis, which is why they selected him first overall in the 2021 MLB draft. Baseball America ranks him as the 44th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 22nd and FanGraphs 27th. He’s likely still a few years away from reaching the big leagues, but the Pirates aren’t expected to compete in the interim. They could easily subtract someone like Jacob Stallings and sign a cheap veteran to take his place. Stallings turns 32 in December and has three years of club control remaining. As a Super Two player, he’s already gone through arbitration once, making $1.3MM in 2021. MLBTR projects he will double that to $2.6MM for 2022. He generally hits just below league average but adds value with his excellent defense. For instance, his 2021 slash line was .246/.335/.369, for a wRC+ of 95. But because of his defensive contributions, he was worth 2.6 fWAR on the year, which was double his previous best. One of the worst teams in baseball this season, the Pirates will be looking to stockpile as much young talent as they can in order to return to contention.

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal is entrenched as the primary catcher for the Pale Hose as he still has two years left on his contract. Yermin Mercedes had a tantalizing showing with the bat at the start of the season, but got squeezed out of playing time and eventually optioned down to the minors. Even when Grandal was on the injured list, the playing time went primarily to Seby Zavala and Zack Collins. In 68 games at the big-league level this year, Mercedes hit .271/.328/.404, for a wRC+ of 102. In 59 Triple-A games, the production was similar, as he slashed .275/.318/.464, wRC+ of 106. There was some scuttlebutt that Mercedes was unhappy with the organization, and he even briefly retired in July, only to quickly return. Perhaps a change of scenery would be beneficial to all parties. Mercedes will turn 29 in February but has six years of team control remaining. The White Sox have a solid rotation but will be losing Carlos Rodon to free agency.

Diamondbacks: Similar to the Pirates, the Diamondbacks are coming off a terrible year and probably considering any veteran-for-prospect arrangement they can find. Carson Kelly is coming off his first of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player, just like the aforementioned Jacob Stallings. However, Kelly is much younger, as he just turned 27 in July. He made $1.7MM in 2021 and is projected by MLBTR to make $3MM in 2022, with two years of team control after that. Over his three seasons in the desert, he’s hit .239/.333/.435, for a wRC+ of 99 and 3.8 fWAR.

Mariners: The Mariners have a bit of a crowd behind the plate. Tom Murphy is the most experienced of the bunch, as he has just over four years’ service time. Luis Torrens had a nice season in 2021, his age-25 campaign. He hit 15 homers and slashed .243/.299/.431 for a wRC+ of 101. He has four years of team control remaining. Cal Raleigh made his MLB debut in 2021. Although he didn’t hit much, he’s only 24 years old and has a better offensive track record in the minors. He’ll turn 25 in November and has six years of team control remaining. They also have Jose Godoy on hand as a depth option. The rotation will be without Tyler Anderson next year, as he heads to free agency. There’s also the giant unanswered question of Yusei Kikuchi, who had a great first half but slumped bad enough in the second half to lose his rotation spot. With famously trade-happy president like Jerry Dipoto, perhaps a catching-for-pitching swap could be discussed here.

Giants: Not so long ago, it didn’t seem there was any chance of the Giants picking up their $22MM club option on Buster Posey for 2022. But then 2021 happened. After sitting out the 2020 season, Posey showed didn’t show any rust. In fact, it seemed to rejuvenate him. His slash line on the season was .304/.390/.499, producing a wRC+ of 140, his highest such mark since 2014. Now it seems almost impossible for the club to turn that option down. That means that prospect Joey Bart is blocked for another year. He’s already seen his name floated in trade rumors before, and there was even a false report that he was part of the Kris Bryant trade. But he’s still in the Giants organization for now. Baseball America ranks him the 39th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 16th and FanGraphs 55th. He’s already gotten a cup of coffee at the majors and comes with six years of club control. He turns 25 years old in December.

Marlins Notes: Outfielders, Anderson, Revenue

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Catcher has already been identified as a position of need for the Marlins this winter, and the club’s search for more offense is likely to result in some new faces in the outfield.  The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson believes the Fish “will acquire two starting outfielders,” with Jesus Sanchez likely taking the other starting role and Bryan De La Cruz probably moving to fourth outfielder duty.

Sanchez played almost exclusively as a right fielder down the stretch this season, so that would seem to specify left field and center field as Miami’s target areas.  De La Cruz is probably best suited for a corner outfield role but he can at least chip in as a center fielder, expanding the Marlins’ ability to find ways to get his bat into the lineup following a solid rookie season.  Should the National League adopt the DH in 2022, that will provide another route to playing time for De La Cruz or any other hitters the Marlins might acquire.

There’s no shortage of prominent outfielders in this year’s free agent class, and while a true blockbuster signing would still be a little unexpected for the Marlins, general manager Kim Ng has stated that “we are going to have some money to spend.”  Jackson estimates that the Marlins have around $35MM in new revenue to work with thanks to a new TV contract and their ballpark’s naming rights deal, and while not all of that money will necessarily go into player payroll, it does at least somewhat expand the team’s spending parameters.

Of course, Miami could also turn to the trade market, as the team has already explored the possibility of trading from its depth of young pitching to acquire a high-profile outfielder.  And with new talent coming in, internal trade candidates could be found amongst the players who may no longer be a major part of the Marlins’ long-term plans.  Jackson mentions Braxton Garrett, Isan Diaz, Nick Neidert, Monte Harrison, and the out-of-options Lewis Brinson as players who have yet to show much at the Major League level, so any could conceivably be part of trade talks, whether as part of a lower-level swap or as parts of a larger trade package.

If outfield is a target area, it makes sense that the Fish could try to clear room by moving Harrison and Brinson.  Garrett Cooper’s season was cut short by elbow surgery, but he has hit well in his career when healthy and his projected $3MM arbitration salary isn’t too expensive, so he could be retained for some right field work and as part of the first base/DH mix.

Third base is another potential position to be addressed, depending on what the Marlins opt to do with Brian Anderson.  An injury-plagued year resulted in subpar (.249/.337/.378) numbers over 264 plate appearances for Anderson, a notable step back from the .266/.350/.436 slash line he produced from 2018-20.  Depending on how Miami feels about Anderson as a building block, he could be deployed again as the starting third baseman, or moved back to the outfield to fill one of those holes, or the Marlins could look to trade him and then look for an upgrade at the hot corner.

Don Mattingly On Marlins’ Catching Situation

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The Marlins continue to be in the market for a catching upgrade, reports the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson. Skipper Don Mattingly more or less confirmed that’ll be a priority this winter, responding to questions about the team’s incumbent catching situation, noting that “It’s an area we’re looking at. It’s fairly safe to say it was some kind of message when we grabbed two catchers at the trade deadline.”

Mattingly’s rather plain assessment doesn’t bode well for the team’s current group of catchers, who combined for a wRC+ of 57 that ranked third-worst in all of baseball. Things weren’t much brighter on the defensive side of things either, as the unit posted -6 DRS.

Miami’s starting catcher, Jorge Alfaro, may find himself in the most trouble after posting -9 DRS and a 69 OPS+ over the past two seasons. The former Rangers and Phillies prospect has showed mixed progress in his tenure as a Marlin, as he has incrementally improved his year-over-year hard-hit rate and flashed a cannon that resulted in a 43% caught stealing rate. Still, Alfaro has regularly posted strikeout rates above 30%, has been walking less every year since 2018, and undid some of his defensive good by allowing a league-high 13 passed balls in 2021.

Further working against Alfaro is his rising salary through arbitration, for which he is eligible a second time this offseason. As a smaller market team, Miami is unlikely to dedicate a portion of its payroll to a player who is establishing a pattern of underperformance; a non-tender of Alfaro this offseason has seemed likely for quite some time.

With Alfaro’s stock dipping and #2 catcher Sandy Leon unlikely to be retained as well, the Marlins have playing time to spare at the position. In-house candidates include the aforementioned deadline pickups: Alex Jackson and Payton Henry. The former wasn’t able to replicate his most recent 1.060 OPS Triple-A performance while the latter couldn’t build on a more modest .741 OPS performance across the minors last year. Another Miami catcher, Nick Fortes, impressed offensively in a 14-game debut but also carries a limited track record of offensive prowess in the minors.

General manager Kim Ng and CEO Derek Jeter suggested last week the club anticipated dipping into the free agent market to address the team’s lackluster offense. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored, however, the upcoming offseason offers a very thin crop of options behind the dish.

That could suggest Miami’s more likely to turn to the trade market to add help from outside the organization. The Fish had some discussions with the Cubs regarding Willson Contreras last offseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the sides revisited those talks this winter with Chicago having torn down the big league roster substantially in recent months. Contreras is only one season away from free agency, though, and it’s arguable the Miami front office should focus more on longer-term options coming off a 67-95 campaign.

Turning to some other plausible trade candidates, teams figure to call the Diamondbacks regarding Carson Kelly and the Pirates about Jacob Stallings this winter, although it’s not clear either player will be made available. Both Arizona and Pittsburgh look hard-pressed to contend in 2022, but there’s no indication either of Kelly or Stallings proved attainable at this past summer’s trade deadline.

Kelly got off to a scorching start to the year before he fractured his wrist on a hit-by-pitch in mid-June. His production absolutely cratered upon his return, with the injury seemingly having a lingering impact on his power. It’d be relatively easy for Miami (or any other club) to talk themselves into Kelly regaining his early-season form after an offseason to recover, although the D-Backs’ front office may prefer to hang onto Kelly into next season in anticipation of a bounceback themselves. He’s entering his second of four years of arbitration eligibility and will be entitled to a raise on this season’s $1.7MM salary.

Stallings has been one of the game’s most reliable defensive catchers for the past few seasons. The 31-year-old rather remarkably didn’t commit a single passed ball in 892 innings last season (which would make for a marked change from Alfaro’s receiving issues). He also hit at a solid level for a catcher (.246/.335/.369 over 427 plate appearances). That’d make him an appealing trade target, but Stallings comes with an additional three seasons of arbitration control himself and Pittsburgh hasn’t seem inclined to move him in the past.

The Fish could also look into more creative trade possibilities. The Blue Jays have a glut of young catchers at or near the big league level; the Twins could make Mitch Garver available to open more regular playing time for Ryan Jeffers; the Mariners might listen on one of Tom Murphy or Luis Torrens with prospect Cal Raleigh at the big league level. It seems highly likely the Marlins will make some form of addition behind the plate, with Mattingly’s assessment of the situation only lending further credence to the idea of a forthcoming shakeup at the position.

Marlins Activate Pablo Lopez From 10-Day IL

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  • The Marlins activated Pablo Lopez from the 60-day injured list, as Lopez tossed 1 2/3 innings in an abbreviated start during Miami’s 5-4 win over the Phillies today.  It marked Lopez’s first game since July 11, as a right rotator cuff strain interrupted a very impressive season for the 25-year-old.  Lopez posted a 3.03 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over his first 101 innings, setting himself up for 2022 as yet another quality young arm in the Marlins rotation. To make room for Lopez’s return to the roster, Miami placed left-hander Sean Guenther on the 10-day IL and moved first baseman Jesus Aguilar to the 60-day IL.

Marlins Notes: Free Agency, Castellanos, Alcantara

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9:54PM: Marlins CEO Derek Jeter backed up Ng’s comments, telling Bally Sports Florida that “For the first time really since we’ve been here as an ownership group, I expect to be pretty active” in the offseason.  Jeter also said the focus will be on adding hitting to augment “one of the top pitching staffs in baseball.”

7:35AM: The Marlins are wrapping up their 11th losing season in the past 12 years, with last year’s shortened-season playoff berth looking like an aberration. Miami’s young but promising pitching staff actually put together an above-average campaign, but they were let down by a lack of run support. The Marlins’ 615 runs scored is the third-lowest tally in the majors, with the team’s .241/.308/.387 slash line (excluding pitchers) checking in sixth from the bottom.

Bolstering the lineup will be an obvious priority for the club this offseason, and general manager Kim Ng acknowledged as much Friday afternoon in an appearance on the MLB Network. Most notably, Ng suggested ownership is prepared to support at least some measure of activity in free agency. “We are going to have some money to spend. … We feel that we are primed to do very well with the pitching set up as it is and with us being able to spend some money on bats this offseason.”

Miami typically runs one of the lowest payrolls in the league, but their ledger is fairly open. Miguel Rojas’ $5.5MM option recently vested, and Anthony Bass’ $3MM salary is the only other guaranteed deal on the books. (Miami also owes the Yankees $3MM as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade). The Fish will have one of the game’s more significant arbitration classes, with Jesús Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Elieser Hernández among those in line for raises. Even then, Miami should have a bit of spending capacity before closing in on this year’s estimated $63MM payroll (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

Ng was unsurprisingly vague about precisely how much money the front office will have to play with, but they’re seemingly at least considering one of the more notable players likely to be on the market. On his Swings and Mishes podcast, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald suggested the Marlins could be in the market for South Florida native Nick Castellanos, who is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $32MM on his current deal with the Reds.

On the surface, the Marlins certainly seem a long shot to wind up landing Castellanos, as Mish acknowledges. The 29-year-old placed tenth on MLBTR’s most recent free agent power rankings, with a four or five-year deal worth $20MM+ annually seemingly within the realm of possibility coming off a season in which he’s hitting .308/.362/.570 with 33 home runs. For a Miami team that balked at meeting Starling Marte’s reported four-year, $50MM asking price this summer, an earnest Castellanos pursuit would require a significant change in direction, although it’s at least theoretically possible ownership and the front office would be willing to make an exception for one of the younger potential free agents on the market.

While a Castellanos deal would register as a major surprise, the team agreeing to an extension with Alcantara seems entirely plausible. There’s reportedly growing optimism the two sides can get a long-term deal done this winter, and Mish adds that such talks could result in a more team-friendly arrangement than one might expect. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently broke down the factors that could go into an Alcantara extension, although Mish hears the first-time All-Star might be willing to settle for a bit less than his maximum earning power in order to lock in some financial security before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on December 1.

Marlins Select Three Players

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The Marlins announced a set of roster moves in advance of their final series against the Phillies. Infielder Deven Marrero and right-handers Preston Guilmet and Andrew Bellatti were all selected to the big league club, while outfielder Brian Miller was recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville. Outfielder Jesús Sánchez (right hamstring strain) and right-hander Edward Cabrera (blister) were placed on the 10-day injured list. To create 40-man roster space, utilityman Jon Berti was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list, while infielder Joe Panik and right-hander Luis Madero have been designated for assignment.

It’s promotion number six for Marrero, who has been shuttled on and off the 40-man roster at various points throughout the season. He’s been limited to just twelve big league plate appearances amidst all the back-and-forth. The right-handed hitter owns a .215/.299/.337 line over 207 trips to the plate with Jacksonville.

Guilmet and Bellatti were also in the majors at earlier points this season before being outrighted. Guilmet tossed a scoreless inning back on July 28, his first MLB action in three years. He’s had a solid campaign with Jacksonville, working 52 1/3 frames of 3.78 ERA ball with very impressive strikeout and walk rates (32.5% and 6.3%, respectively). Bellatti — back in the bigs for the first time since 2015 — made two appearances in late July, allowing five runs in 2 1/3 innings. He owns a sterling 1.52 ERA in 29 2/3 frames of Triple-A work with similarly strong peripherals as Guilmet’s.

Sánchez and Cabrera were both injured in last night’s game against the Mets. Their respective seasons will come to a close a few days early, but both young players look to be potential core pieces in Miami moving forward. The 23-year-old Sánchez posted an impressive .251/.319/.489 showing over 251 plate appearances this season. That came with an elevated strikeout rate, but he demonstrated the impressive power potential that once made him a top prospect. Cabrera struggled badly through his first seven big league starts, but he’s regarded by public prospect evaluators as one of the more promising young pitchers in the game.

Panik joined the Marlins as a salary offset in this summer’s trade that sent Corey Dickerson and Adam Cimber to Toronto. A New York-area native, he accompanied the team on their trip to Queens for the series against the Mets but decided to stay in his home area to attend to the birth of his child, manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald) after last night’s game. Panik is slated to reach free agency at the end of the season anyhow, so the Marlins free up a 40-man roster spot by designating him for assignment a few days early. (Had they placed Panik on the paternity list, he’d have still counted against the 40-man). Over 257 trips to the plate between Miami and the Jays, the lefty-hitting Panik slashed .208/.266/.284 with three home runs.

Madero has been selected and outrighted a few times this season. He’s allowed twelve runs in as many innings at the big league level, his first taste of the majors. Should Madero again clear waivers, he’d have the right to elect free agency. Even were he to accept another outright assignment, Madero would reach minor league free agency this offseason unless Miami were to add him back to the 40-man roster.

Marlins, Sandy Alcantara Becoming More Optimistic About Possible Extension

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There’s “growing optimism” between the Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara about a potential extension, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. It’s a notable turn of events after the Marlins’ initial overtures were reported to be on the light side. Talks between the two sides have been ongoing, per Jackson, and both parties feel there’s progress being made.

It’s not clear when a theoretical deal would come together. Such matters are often reserved for later in the offseason or even Spring Training. Progress being made at this point could lead to a rare but not unheard-of September extension for a key player of this nature, or it could simply lay the groundwork for when the two parties pick things back up early in 2022.

What is clear to see is just why Miami is so keen on the idea of keeping Alcantara for the long haul. The 26-year-old righty has steadily improved in parts of four seasons with the Fish and has now emerged as the workhorse leader on the pitching staff. He’s one of just four pitchers in all of Major League Baseball to have reached the 200-inning threshold in 2021, as teams have been even more guarded than usual with pitcher workloads on the heels of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Alcantara, however, isn’t simply a durable innings eater providing innings in bulk; he’s developed into one of the game’s most effective hurlers.

In 200 2/3 frames this year,  Alcantara boasts a strong 3.09 ERA with a roughly average 24 percent strikeout rate but near-elite walk and ground-ball rates (six percent and 53.4 percent, respectively). He averages 98.1 mph on his four-seamer and 97.5 mph on his sinker, complementing those high-speed offerings with a changeup and slider that both grade out as above-average pitches (the slider in particular). Alcantara’s 13.2 percent swinging-strike rate and huge 36.5 percent opponents’ chase rate are career-bests over a full season. This year’s ERA may look like a mere continuation of his 2020 success (3.00 ERA in 42 innings), but Alcantara has improved across the board in nearly every underlying rate stat of note.

Alcantara will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, which has been an atypical juncture for starting pitchers to agree to extensions in recent years. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out the last time extension rumors surrounding Alcantara surfaced, there are only two starting pitchers in the past half decade who’ve signed an extension when they were between three and four years of service time: Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez (five years, $51MM plus two club options) and Phillies righty Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM plus one club option).

The two contracts fall in the same realm in terms of total value, but Nola’s comparable guarantee over a shorter term was reflective of his superior results and stronger arbitration case to that point in his career. He likely prioritized a shorter deal as a trade-off, securing some early financial security while still being able to reach the market at a young enough age (31) to command a lucrative free-agent pact. Martinez’s deal surrendered considerably more team control but did so for a slightly larger guarantee that still represents a record sum for a pitcher in this service bracket.

On the surface, Alcantara has pitched well enough to stake a claim to set a new record, although it’d register as something of a surprise for a low-payroll club like Miami to set a new precedent in any service-time bracket. On the other hand, Alcantara has established himself as a high-end, foundational piece in the rotation and is now on the cusp of arbitration. That forthcoming arbitration raise gives him some leverage, as he’s all but locked up a notable salary for the first time in his career.

First-time arb-eligible pitchers have been stuck in a rather staggering rut when it comes to arbitration filings, as the repeatedly cited precedent for teams with first-time-eligible starting pitchers is Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM mark all the way back in 2006. David Price matched that sum in his own first-time offseason (2012), but the only first-time-eligible starting pitcher to top that mark was Dallas Keuchel ($7.25MM), who only managed to do so on the heels of being named American League Cy Young winner. Perhaps notably, Nola filed at a hearty $6.7MM before agreeing to his extension; the Phillies had countered with a $4.5MM filing figure, which would have nominally moved the precedent forward regardless of a hearing’s outcome.

Alcantara could struggle to move past that clearly dated precedent in arbitration, but he’s pitched well enough to command a salary in the low-$4MM range at the very least. Even with a step back or a notable injury in 2022, he’d be quite likely to receive a similar salary in 2023, given that a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber wouldn’t be non-tendered after one poor or injury-marred season. All of that lessens any urgency — at least relative to a pre-arbitration scenario — to take too team-friendly an offer.

Time will tell whether the two parties can hammer out a deal, but it’s notable that the Marlins are making an attempt and are seemingly coming up from their initial proposals. They currently control Alcantara through at least the 2024 season, but even following the Nola trajectory would extend that control through 2026. Of course, we can’t know yet how any tweaks to the collective bargaining agreement might impact the arbitration process and subsequent extension structures, which only adds another layer to a complex set of negotiations.

Regardless, Alcantara looks like a focal point in an increasingly interesting Marlins pitching staff that also features Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo and Zach Thompson. Notable prospects such as Edward Cabrera, Sixto Sanchez, Max Meyer and Jake Eder (who recently had Tommy John surgery) provide the Fish wish a wealth of high-upside depth — depth that could also set the stage for some offseason trades as the club looks to bolster its core of young position players.

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