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Cardinals Await Decisions From Molina, Wainwright

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The St. Louis Cardinals faced a disappointing end to a hard-fought season when they lost games two and three of the wild card round to the San Diego Padres. Now they must turn to the difficult process of winter roster building.

The Cardinals, however, are in the unique position of awaiting decisions from two franchise icons: Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Both vets have interest in returning, but no decision has been made. Either or both could still decide to return. In a worst case scenario for Cardinals’ fans, it’s possible the pair could explore a new frontier with another club, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That seems unlikely, but Molina and Wainwright are intense competitors who have accomplished more-or-less everything they could hope to accomplish in St. Louis.

For the Cardinals’ part, manager Mike Shildt has repeatedly expressed a desire to see the pair return to Jupiter in the spring. Wainwright and Molina have long set the tone in St. Louis, and it’s hard to quantify the impact their departure might have on the club’s culture. The Cardinals had hoped a sort of passing of the torch would take place in 2020, per Goold, but the young players in St. Louis didn’t quite establish themselves in exactly the way the team hoped. Ace Jack Flaherty still has a sky-high ceiling, but in 9 starts, the 24-year-old went just 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA/4.11 FIP. Given the tumultuous nature of the season, that’s hardly a disaster. Still, when push came to shove, it was Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim taking the ball in games one and two of the playoffs.

Molina, 38, already outlasted one catcher-of-the-future in Carson Kelly, who was eventually traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the package for Paul Goldschmidt. Andrew Knizner, 25, is the closest to usurping the role now, but it’s not particularly close. If Molina wants to come back, he’ll be back, and he’ll be the starting catcher.

Goold notes that Molina desires to play two more seasons. That certainly makes it seem as if he’ll be back in St. Louis. If Molina returns, chances are greater that Wainwright returns as well. They certainly have a need now that Dakota Hudson will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals have other options for the rotation – Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez, Kim, Miles Mikolas, and Austin Gomber – but besides Flaherty, they all come with questions. With Wainwright, the Cardinals know exactly what they’re getting. They’re just waiting for Wainwright to give the word on whether or not they’ll get it in 2021.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reynolds, Newman, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Flaherty

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The Pirates are more likely than not to land outside the playoff picture in 2020, but they’ve not given up the notion of wreaking some havoc on the NL Central this year. To do so, however, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman will need to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. True enough, Reynolds and Newman came out the gate strong in 2019, posting 3.2 fWAR and 2.4 fWAR, respectively. And yet, teaming their rookie duo with Josh Bell’s breakout bat still only amounted to the 20th-ranked offense by runs scored (758 runs), 19th by wRC+ (92). Beyond these three, the other two Pirates rounding out their top-5 by wRC+ in 2019 now play for different teams (Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson), and the sixth is a pitcher (Steven Brault). Immediately upon the close of 2019, the Pirates had planned to give Brault a go as a two-way player, but with new leadership up and down the organization, it’s unclear what his role will be. Regardless, Jarrod Dyson is the biggest addition made the to position player group this winter. Reynolds and Newman are core pieces of this lineup, and the good news is this: if they do slump in their sophomore seasons, they should have enough leash to find their way back. Let’s jump from the bottom of the NL Central to the top and check in with the reigning divisional champs…

  • As Spring Training games kick off (weather permitting), hitters around the league are putting their offseason swing adjustments to the test. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals will all be deploying tweaked swings to some degree as they seek the kind of offensive consistency that eluded the trio last year, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldy was the most successful of the three, but his fortunes at the plate sunk and fell seemingly on a monthly basis, and he never quite settled into the type of season to which he is accustomed. A .260 BA was his lowest mark since 2012 by almost thirty points, and while his power remained decidedly above average, it did drop from the astronomical heights of the couple seasons prior. Still, even in a down year, Goldy produced 16% more offense than average. Any substantive regression to his career norms should be enough to raise Goldy’s stock back to the level of franchise cornerstone where the Cardinals expected him to be when they acquired him for three players and a pick last winter.
  • Unsurprisingly, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wasted no time in naming Jack Flaherty their opening day starter, tweets Goold. Flaherty drove the Cardinals second half push to 91 wins and their first divisional crown since 2015. Who follows Flaherty in the rotation is a more compelling question for those in Cardinals camp this spring. There are no shortage of options, from rotation holdovers like Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas, to former ace Carlos Martinez, to newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim. Adam Wainwright will be somewhere in the rotation after a rejuvenating 14-10 season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/4.36 FIP across 31 starts. The bridge from Flaherty to Wainwright (to Chris Carpenter to Matt Morris) is a tangible reminder of the Cardinals’ institutional success. 2007, Wainright’s first season as a starter, remains the only losing season the Cards have suffered this century (they went 78-84 and finished in third place).

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

Rocco Baldelli, Mike Shildt Named Managers Of The Year

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Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Cardinals manager Mike Shildt have won Manager of the Year honors in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Tuesday evening. (As a reminder, award voting is conducted at the conclusion of the regular season but prior to postseason play.)

The 38-year-old Baldelli narrowly edged out Yankees skipper Aaron Boone. Baldelli and Boone both received 13 first-place votes, but Baldelli’s 13 second-place votes carried more clout than the nine second-place nods for Boone. Rays skipper Kevin Cash finished third on the ballot and landed three first-place votes. Oakland’s Bob Melvin, Houston’s A.J. Hinch and Cleveland’s Terry Francona came in fourth, fifth and sixth place, respectively. Hinch received the lone first-place vote that did not go to Baldelli, Boone or Cash (link to full breakdown of voting).

Baldelli secures Manager of the Year honors in his first season at the helm of a big league club. Hired to step into shoes that were most recently filled by longtime skipper Ron Gardenhire (2002-14) and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor (2015-18), Baldelli represented a significant departure from the organizational norm in Minnesota. His appointment as skipper marked a continuation of a trend toward modern, data-driven decision making in what had long been viewed as one of the game’s most traditional (and at times, insular) organizations.

Baldelli’s Twins shocked baseball by bashing a Major League-record 307 home runs and usurping the American League Central division throne. The “Bomba Squad” reignited the Twin Cities fanbase and brought numerous sellouts to Target Field late in the 2019 season as the Twins charged toward their first division championship since the stadium’s inaugural season back in 2010. Unfortunately, the postseason brought more of the same for the Twins, who were swept away in the ALDS by their postseason nemesis, the Yankees. Still, the 2019 campaign marked a clear return to relevance for the Twins, who are now widely expected to be active players on the offseason trade and free agent markets with an eye toward a deeper playoff push in 2020.

Shildt, 51, won an even tighter race to secure NL Manager of the Year honors. Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell actually took home more first-place votes (13 to 10), but Shildt’s 14 second-place votes (compared to Counsel’s six) gave him a total of 95 points to Counsell’s 88. Atlanta’s Brian Snitker finished third and received three first-place votes, while the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts was fourth place and received four first-place votes of his own. Washington’s Dave Martinez and Arizona’s Torey Lovullo finished fifth and sixth, respectively (full voting breakdown here).

Like Baldelli, Shildt was in his first full season as a big league manager, although he wasn’t a rookie, having taken over the reins of the Cardinals in July 2018 when Mike Matheny was dismissed. Shildt’s Cardinals looked like an NL Central afterthought early in the month of August, sitting at just 58-55 on Aug. 8. However, the Cardinals went on a tear to close out the season, playing at a 33-16 pace down the stretch to overtake both the Brewers and the Cubs en route to an NL Central Championship.

Cardinals Extend John Mozeliak, Mike Girsch, Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals have announced new deals for three key members of their leadership, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers (links to Twitter). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak gets three new years, while top lieutenant and GM Mike Girsch receives two more on top of his 2020 deal.

There’s continuity as well in the dugout. Skipper Mike Schildt will receive a new three-year arrangement that keeps him at the helm through 2022. His entire coaching staff will also be returning.

Last we checked on the contract status of Mozeliak and Girsch, they had reached new deals with the club that aligned with promotions in the middle of the 2017 season. Both reportedly signed on through 2020. It seems they’ll both remain on the same track, through the ’22 campaign, though the word out of the presser was a bit confusing on that front.

As for Shildt, he had already inked a deal upon being named the permanent manager in August of 2018. He’ll now also be bumped out through the 2022 season.

This news comes on the heels of a strong 2019 campaign in which the Cards returned to the postseason by hanging on in a tight NL Central. Despite suffering a sweep in the NLCS, the campaign was unquestionably a success. The organization will face a difficult task to repeat but certainly has a roster that remains set up to contend.

NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals

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Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago.  Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.

  • Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.

Cardinals Extend Mike Schildt

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4:08pm: The three-year term on Shildt’s contract includes the current season, as Shildt’s new contract runs through the 2020 campaign, per Jen Langosch of MLB.com (on Twitter). The Cardinals have formally announced that Shildt has shed the “interim” label on his title and is now the full-time manager.

2:35pm: The Cardinals will make official today what had increasingly become obvious: interim manager Mike Shildt is going to stay in the job beyond the present season. He’s slated to receive a three-year contract in addition to having the interim label removed. Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter) and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) had the news.

Since taking the helm of a club that was sitting just one game over .500 just past the season’s halfway point, Shildt has guided the Cards to a 26-12 record. The club is now firmly back in contention. Of course, numerous roster moves came along with the firing of Mike Matheny, and it’s always hard to allocate praise and blame for managerial performance, but the organization obviously had cause to be pleased with the early returns on the new skipper.

Shildt opened the year as the Cards’ bench coach, which in and of itself represented a remarkable rise in the game. He never played professionally and was first came to the St. Louis organization as a scout. Shildt rose steadily from there, ultimately becoming a manager in the lower minors and climbing the ranks to run the team’s top affiliate. He came to the MLB staff in 2017 as a quality control and then third base coach.

The Cardinals know Shildt well and are clearly impressed with his work to this point, though it’s nonetheless a bit surprising to see them remove the “interim” label from Shildt after just 38 games. Typically, even when organization have hired an interim manager on a full-time basis, he’s but one of many candidates amid a larger search at season’s end. That won’t be the case with Shildt, who has already overwhelmingly captured the hearts of many Cardinals fans and drawn praise from both his players and fellow coaches.

NL Central Notes: Reds Front Office, Bryant, Cardinals, Kuhl

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The Reds are making some changes to their scouting and player development departments, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Scouting director Chris Buckley, who has been in charge of overseeing all aspects of the amateur draft, and director of player development Jeff Graupe have both been reassigned to new positions. It’s not yet clear how the Reds plan to address the new vacancies, with one Reds source telling Nightengale that the team has not yet determined whether it’ll look outside the organization for replacements or promote from within.

A bit more from the NL Central…

  • Though Kris Bryant’s absence has undoubtedly been longer than the Cubs had hoped, the slugger may not be on the shelf much longer. Manager Joe Maddon tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that he expects Bryant back by September, which would give the former NL MVP a month to round into form in advance of a hopeful postseason run. Bryant feels he’ll need only three or four games on a minor league rehab assignment before he’s ready to return. It’s been a “down” season for Bryant, though only by his own lofty standards. Through 358 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .276/.380/.474 with 11 homers, 21 doubles and three triples.
  • Though some Cardinals fans in the past have clamored for third base coach Jose Oquendo to receive managerial consideration, Oquendo tells Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he’s previously made it clear to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he’s not interested in managing. Going further, Oquendo emphatically threw his full support behind current interim skipper Mike Shildt, telling Frederickson that the Cardinals already have “the right guy” and that the front office should “decide now” and make Shildt the permanent manager. Oquendo raved to Frederickson about the manner in which Shildt prepares the team and works with the players.
  • The Pirates believe they’ll have righty Chad Kuhl back at some point in September, writes Kent Youngblood of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said the plan for Kuhl is to start a throwing program during the next homestand before moving up to a minor league rehab assignment. Kuhl hasn’t pitched since late June due to a forearm strain. It’s not clear just yet if there’ll be rotation work available for Kuhl, as the Buccos have Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Ivan Nova, Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove in the starting five now, with Nick Kingham also in the wings in Triple-A. Kuhl tossed 85 innings earlier this season and worked to a 4.55 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 36.2 percent ground-ball rate in 16 starts.
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