Quick Hits: Astros, Venable, Suter, Kim
In the wake of the sign-stealing scandal that has enveloped the Astros and become perhaps the biggest story of the offseason, Astros fan Tony Adams decided to analyze the data from the 2017 season in perhaps the more straight-forward way possible — Adams listened for any loud banging sounds (i.e. someone hitting a trash can) during every opponents’ pitch thrown during Astros home games in 2017. The whistling, clapping, and vocal signals the Astros allegedly also used to alert batters weren’t chronicled, as such sounds are harder to detect amidst the usual sounds of the ballpark.
After breaking down the 58 Houston home games that had available video, Adams made his work public at SignStealingScandal.com, with intriguing results. The banging sounds were almost non-existent for the first two months of the season before spiking during a May 28 game against Baltimore (an 8-4 Astros win) and then staying at a noticeably high level for most of the remaining games over the following four months. More data is available on a game-by-game basis, and on a player-by-player basis.
More from around the baseball world…
- Will Venable interviewed for the Astros’ managerial vacancy earlier this month and for the Cubs’ and Giants’ jobs earlier this offseason, though he appears to be stepping out of the managerial race for the time being. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that Venable will remain as the Cubs‘ third base coach and thus won’t be a candidate to fill the sport’s last remaining managerial opening with the Red Sox.
- After undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid-2018, Brent Suter returned to the Brewers in a relief role in September and looked tremendous, allowing just a single earned run in 18 1/3 innings (for a tiny 0.49 ERA). While the Brewers generally like to be as flexible as possible with their pitchers’ assignments, GM David Stearns told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that he thinks Suter will continue to work as a reliever in 2020. “We’ll make sure Brent lengthens out so that he can cover multiple innings and accentuate his versatility. It’s keeping someone in a role where they’ve demonstrated they can be successful,” Stearns said. Suter pitched mostly as a reliever in his 2016 rookie season but started 32 of 42 appearances in 2017-18, though rarely pitching too deep into games. A soft-contact specialist whose fastball averaged only 87.5mph last season, Suter provides quite a contrast paired alongside with Milwaukee’s other multi-inning relief ace, the hard-throwing strikeout machine Josh Hader.
- Korean outfielder Jae-Hwan Kim did not draw sufficient interest from MLB teams this winter to make a move across the Pacific, but he’s determined to try again after the 2020 campaign, Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News reports. “If I do well this year, I’ll take another shot at the majors,” Kim said. The outfielder had a monster run with the Doosan Bears from 2016-18, averaging nearly 40 homers per season and topping the 1.000 OPS plateau in all three years. In 2019, however, Kim dropped back to a .283/.362/.434 slash and 15 dingers last year, which he said isn’t just a reflection of the suppressed KBO offensive environment. Kim is hoping to iron out his swing in 2020 and turn in a convincing season before offering his services again to big league clubs.
Brewers Designate Deolis Guerra For Assignment
The Brewers have designated right-hander Deolis Guerra for assignment, as per a team press release. The move creates a roster spot for David Phelps, whose one-year deal with Milwaukee is now official.
Guerra re-signed with the Brewers on a Major League contract earlier this winter, after being outrighted off the team’s 40-man roster during the season. Guerra pitched in only one game and 2/3 of an inning for the Brewers in 2019, allowing four runs in that brief cameo. That ugly outing was countered by some outstanding numbers at the Triple-A level, as Guerra posted a 1.89 ERA, 5.50 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 66 2/3 relief innings.
While the 30-year-old Guerra had an age and experience advantage over much younger Triple-A batters, his performance was particularly impressive given that 2019 was by far the biggest-hitting season in the history of Triple-A baseball. Another team could be intrigued enough by those minor league stats to pluck Guerra off the DFA wire, or he could remain in Milwaukee’s farm system once again as a depth option.
Over 95 2/3 career Major League frames with the Brewers, Angels, and Pirates, Guerra has a 4.52 ERA, 3.41 K/BB rate, and 7.1 K/9.
Brewers To Sign David Phelps
The Brewers have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent righty David Phelps, per Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll promise him $1.5MM and comes with a club option for another season, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds (Twitter link).
The deal is loaded with other earning potential as well. Phelps will play for a $1.25MM salary in 2020 but can tack on $1.9MM in incentives. The option is priced at $4.5MM, with a $250K buyout. If Phelps is picked up, there’s another $1.9MM in performance milestones available in 2021.
Phelps, 33, returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and showed rather well. He split time between the Blue Jays and Cubs, turning in 34 1/3 frames of 3.41 ERA ball with a 36:17 K/BB ratio. That also enabled him to trigger a clause in his contract that boosted the price of his option year to $5MM, leading the Cubs to decline and send Phelps back onto the market.
The Brewers obviously hope that Phelps can continue to make strides now that he has one post-TJ campaign under his belt. Phelps lost nearly two miles per hour on his average fastball between seasons, so it’d be nice to see some velo return. On a related note, he also managed only a 7.8% swinging-strike rate. But Phelps did show above-average fastball and curveball spin rates, which helped him limit the hard contact allowed against both of those offerings.
Phelps has at times functioned as a high-leverage setup man, but he’ll likely be in more of a middle innings role as part of a deep Milwaukee ‘pen. Josh Hader should have the closer’s role locked down, and Corey Knebel, returning from Tommy John surgery, should give manager Craig Counsell a similarly dominant late-inning option (health permitting).
Former starters Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta could both factor into the mix as well, and the Brew Crew did add Ray Black and his triple-digit fastball prior to the 2019 non-waiver deadline. Lefties Alex Claudio and Brent Suter, too, should play key roles in 2020. Phelps will bring an experienced arm that has worked as a long man and a starter in addition to his time as a setup man, which should give the Brewers flexibility in terms of how they prefer to align their relief troops.
Free Agent Spending By Team: National League
With the clear exception of the still-unsigned Yasiel Puig, free agency is almost devoid of high-upside contributors at this point. The majority of players capable of securing guaranteed contracts have already come off the board, making this a good time to check in on which teams have spent the most and which clubs have paid the least via the open market. We’ve already gone through the same exercise for the American League, where the Yankees have returned to the top of the heap as the biggest spenders in their league and in the sport in general. Meanwhile, over in the Senior Circuit, reigning world champion Washington clearly isn’t resting on its laurels after a storybook playoff run…
Nationals: $316.75MM on 10 players (Stephen Strasburg, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Zimmerman and Kyle Finnegan; financial details unclear for Finnegan; top 50 MLBTR signings: four)
Reds: $164MM on four players (Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley; top 50 signings: four)
Phillies: $132MM on two players (Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius; top 50 signings: two)
Braves: $116.25MM on nine players (Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Darren O’Day, Adeiny Hechavarria; top 50 signings: five)
Diamondbacks: $109.65MM on five players (Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Hector Rondon, Stephen Vogt and Junior Guerra; top 50 signings: two)
Brewers: $48.38MM on eight players (Avisail Garcia, Josh Lindblom, Justin Smoak, Brett Anderson, Eric Sogard, Alex Claudio, Ryon Healy and Deolis Guerra; financial details unclear for Healy and Guerra; top 50 signings: two)
Padres: $48MM on three players (Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson; top 50 signings: three)
Mets: $24.35MM on four players (Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Brad Brach; top 50 signings: three)
Marlins: $23.855MM on five players (Corey Dickerson, Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce and Yimi Garcia; financial details unclear for Joyce; top 50 signings: one)
Giants: $17.775MM on four players (Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Tony Watson and Tyler Anderson; top 50 signings: one)
Dodgers: $15.25MM on three players (Blake Treinen, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson; top 50 signings: one)
Cardinals: $15MM on three players (Adam Wainwright, Kwang-hyun Kim and Matt Wieters; top 50 signings: one)
Cubs: $2.5MM on three players (Steven Souza Jr., Jeremy Jeffress and Ryan Tepera; top 50 signings: zero)
Pirates: Signed OF Guillermo Heredia and C Luke Maile (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)
Rockies: Signed RHP Jose Mujica (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)
Luis Urias To Miss 6-8 Weeks After Hamate Bone Surgery
Newly acquired Brewers infielder Luis Urias has undergone surgery to repair a fractured left hamate bone, Robert Murray reports. He’s expected to miss six to eight weeks, which seems to jeopardize his spring training and the beginning of the regular season.
Urias paused his winter ball season just a few days ago on account of soreness in his wrist, but the expectation then was that he was dealing with a relatively minor issue. That doesn’t appear to be the case, though, and now it’s possible the Brewers will have to begin the campaign without one of their key offseason additions.
The 22-year-old Urias isn’t far removed from ranking as one of the absolute best prospects in the game, but he didn’t produce much at the major league level with the Padres from 2018-19. San Diego then dealt Urias to Milwaukee in November in a four-player trade that also saw outfielder Trent Grisham and pitchers Zach Davies and Eric Lauer change hands.
Since his change of scenery, Urias has looked like the front-runner to start the year at shortstop for the Brewers. That could still happen, but it looks like a much more questionable bet now. As a result, the Brewers may have to turn back to Orlando Arcia as their No. 1 option at the outset of the season. Arcia was a promising prospect in his own right during his younger days, but the 25-year-old hasn’t done much of anything at the plate since he debuted in the majors in 2016.
Brewers Sign Shelby Miller To Minor League Deal
The Brewers announced that they’ve signed right-hander Shelby Miller to a minor league contract. The Roc Nation Sports client will be in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.
It wasn’t long ago that the 29-year-old Miller was considered to be among the game’s rising young pitchers, but he fell on hard times following a 2015 trade to the Diamondbacks. An All-Star who posted a 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings back in 2015, Miller posted an unexpectedly poor 6.15 ERA in 101 frames in his first season with the D-backs. A year later, he underwent Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for more than a year. He wasn’t able to regain his form upon returning and ultimately was non-tendered in the 2018-19 offseason.
Following that disappointing run in Arizona, Miller inked a one-year, $2MM deal with the Rangers but saw his struggles persist. In 44 innings with Texas last year, he allowed nearly a run per frame before being cut loose. Miller latched on with the Brewers on a minor league deal over the summer but didn’t make it to the big leagues. He’ll now return as a no-risk flier, giving the Milwaukee organization a free look in Spring Training.
NL Notes: Marlins, Brewers, Knebel, Taylor
We’ll round up a few notes from the Senior Circuit to finish the weekend.
- The Marlins are in ongoing negotiations with Sinclair Broadcast Group about a new TV rights contract, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The parties’ current deal, which will pay the club a league-low $20MM for broadcast rights on Fox Sports’ regional networks in 2020, expires at the end of the season. The figures the parties are discussing for 2021 and beyond are unclear. However, Jackson notes that the Marlins turned down an offer which would’ve paid north of $50MM annually in 2017; that offer was put on the table after the current Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter group agreed to buy the franchise, but before the franchise sale was completed, and new ownership preferred to negotiate the TV deal on their own. Whether that particular offer (or something higher) is still on the table isn’t known. What is apparent, however, is the new TV contract will be far more lucrative than the old deal, which could spur ownership to significantly increase spending on player payroll (Jackson estimates an extra potential $20MM annually) in future seasons.
- Brewers’ reliever Corey Knebel is progressing well from March 2019 Tommy John surgery, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Knebel won’t be ready for the start of the season, but he’ll begin throwing from a mound next week as he ramps up his rehab, McCalvy reports. Knebel signed a one-year, $5.125MM contract to avoid arbitration in December, suggesting the club believes he’ll make an impact in 2020.
- Brewers’ outfielder Tyrone Taylor underwent minor surgery this offseason to repair a wrist injury, he told reporters (including McCalvy). Nevertheless, Taylor should be at full strength for the start of spring training. The 26-year-old has only 12 MLB plate appearances to his name. Coming off a passable two-year run in Triple-A and with Milwaukee having traded Trent Grisham to San Diego this offseason, though, Taylor has a shot to earn a reserve outfield spot in spring training.
Ryan Braun Discusses Future
Franchise icon Ryan Braun is entering the final guaranteed season of the contract extension he signed with the Brewers nearly a decade ago. Now 36, the former MVP is nearing the end of a storied career. In fact, it’s not out of the question that 2020 could prove to be his final season, he acknowledged to reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) today at Fan Fest.
“I don’t take for granted this could be my last year playing baseball,” Braun told reporters. “It’s definitely a possibility,” he elaborated when asked if he would contemplate retirement after the 2020 season. “We’ll see how the year goes, see where I’m at physically. Obviously, my family’s always my top priority, so we’ll see how everything’s going then.”
Needless to say, that’s hardly a declaration that he’ll certainly hang up the spikes. He added that he doesn’t anticipate making a final decision until after this season, when he can reevaluate his health and family situation as well as the team’s outlook. Braun’s contract does come with a $15MM mutual option for 2021, but mutual options are rarely exercised. Typically, the price point is either high enough that the team would prefer to buy the player out or low enough that the player would rather explore free agency. In Braun’s case, it seems likely the Brewers would buy Braun out for $4MM rather than exercise their end.
That’s not to say, however, that Braun won’t be a key factor on Milwaukee’s 2020 outlook. He’s coming off a strong 2019 effort, in which he hit .285/.343/.505 (117 wRC+) in 508 plate appearances. The club anticipates him taking a similar number of plate appearances this season, he told reporters today. The longtime corner outfielder confirmed that some of that work figures to come at first base, where he’s played just 18 career games (all in 2018). Milwaukee’s corner outfield mix is crowded, with offseason signee Avisaíl García joining MVP candidate Christian Yelich and Ben Gamel. Yelich, notably, is at full strength for spring training after a knee injury ended his 2019 season in September, he told reporters today (including Haudricourt).
Today’s comments from Braun are perhaps unsurprising; that a 36-year-old player may at least entertain thoughts of retirement after the season won’t raise many eyebrows. Nevertheless, it’s notable to hear Braun verbalize the possibility. He is, as mentioned, still a productive hitter. In all fourteen of his MLB seasons, he’s been above-average at the dish by measure of wRC+. He’s certainly unlikely to return to the vaunted offensive force he was in his prime, but Braun still figures to be a valuable player in 2020. Should he again produce at the plate, he’d no doubt draw interest from teams next offseason, if he chooses to keep playing.
NL Notes: Braves, Acuna, Brewers, Urias, Nationals, Zimmerman, Payroll
Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker has no intention of moving Ronald Acuna Jr. to the cleanup spot, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Even before the Marcell Ozuna signing, Snitker wasn’t entertaining removing Acuna from leadoff, where he excelled last season after a short stint in the middle of the order. Acuna has 15 leadoff home runs across his two seasons with the Braves and an overall batting line of .297/.380/.565 out of the leadoff spot. Acuna hardly struggled elsewhere in the lineup, but he’s certainly a luxury at the top of the order for the two-time defending NL East champs. With Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna presumably behind him in the order, there’s no particular need to mess with success. Let’s check in elsewhere in the National League…
- Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Urias is returning stateside to have his left wrist examined, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter links). Urias cut his winter ball season short upon experiencing soreness. The Brewers hope to have answers by the middle of next week, and surgery is a possibility. Though mention of surgery sets off alarm bells, the Brewers expect this to be a minor issue. Urias, of course, is looking to establish himself as a full-time big-leaguer in his first season with the Brewers. He put up 1.0 bWAR, but just 0.1 fWAR across 71 games of action as a rookie with the Padres in 2019.
- Now that franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman is back on an exceedingly affordable $2MM deal, the Nationals have financial flexibility under the tax, writes MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Roster resource puts the Nats’ tax payroll at about $204MM, which doesn’t provide a ton of wiggle room under the $208MM tax line. Zuckerman figures it closer to $194MM, which is the number given by Cot’s Contracts, roughly $14MM under the tax line. Either way, the Nats have been a willing tax payer in the past, and after ducking under the line in 2019, they’re safe to exceed it again without extra penalty. Given the level of free agent available, however, the Nats are probable to enter the season – like their divisional mates in New York and Philadelphia – near the line with the ability to exceed it with midseason additions should they be close enough to push for the playoffs.
Marlins, Rangers Reportedly Finalists To Sign Pedro Strop
The chase for Pedro Strop may not rate as national news, but it’s an important situation in the context of the remaining relief market. Perusing the slate of still-available pen pieces should convince you of that.
The group of pursuers was defined recently and seems now to have been culled again. The Marlins and Rangers are the two final clubs in the bidding, according to Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 (Twitter link), with the Brewers and Cubs evidently exiting the picture.
For the Fish, Strop would represent something of a finishing flourish to an offseason full of bullpen movement. The Miami organization has dumped a whole lot of talented but unreliable younger hurlers and obviously has interest in plugging in a late-inning veteran.
Should he land instead in Texas, Strop would help buttress a unit that still has some uncertainty. Jose Leclerc and a resurgent Rafael Montero provide some potential fire at the back of the unit, but it’d be nice to pair Strop with Jesse Chavez to lock in some sturdy frames.
Strop has been a steady performer for years now, though he’s coming off of a down 2019. With injuries limiting his availability and effectiveness, the 34-year-old managed only a 4.97 ERA. More than anything, he (like many of his peers) was suddenly prone to the long ball, allowing about twice as many per nine innings as he had over the preceding five years. And a fairly significant velocity decline gave some cause for concern. But it’s not hard to envision a quick bounce back if Strop is at full health, as he still proved capable of inducing an enticing mix of swings and misses and groundballs.