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Gio Gonzalez Exits With Shoulder Tightness

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10:34pm: Gonzalez may have avoided a serious injury. Manager Craig Counsell said after the game, which the Brewers came back to win, that Gonzalez is day-to-day and could make his next start (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

10:03pm: The Brewers announced that left-hander Gio Gonzalez exited his start against the Cubs on Friday with shoulder tightness. That’s a potentially ominous development for a Milwaukee club already down two starters, Brandon Woodruff and Jhoulys Chacin, because of injuries.

The 33-year-old Gonzalez only just returned from his own IL stint. Thanks to a dead arm, Gonzalez went from May 27 until July 20 without taking the ball at the major league level. During the eight starts Gonzalez has made this year, including his 6 1/3-inning, two-run performance against the Cubs, he has recorded an effective 3.48 ERA/3.30 FIP with 7.84 K/9, 2.61 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent groundball rate over 41 1/3 innings.

The Brewers couldn’t have realistically expected the type of results they’ve received from Gonzalez on a per-inning basis when they signed him in late April. That came after an odd several months for Gonzalez, who – despite years of quality work with the Athletics and Nationals – was unable to find a guaranteed contract in the offseason. Gonzalez instead settled for a minor league deal with the Yankees toward the end of March, ultimately opting out of it to take a better opportunity in Milwaukee.

As of this writing, the Brewers are trailing the Cubs, 2-1, in the eighth inning of the NL Central rivals’ hugely important matchup. First-place Chicago entered this weekend’s three-game set with a two-game lead over Milwaukee, which is 1 1/2 back of wild-card position. General manager David Stearns suggested earlier this week the loss of Woodruff’s unlikely to affect the Brewers’ plans heading into the July 31 trade deadline. However, the team appeared as if it needed starting help even before Woodruff suffered an oblique strain that will keep him out several weeks, and that will become all the more obvious if it sees Gonzalez join him and Chacin on the shelf.

Brewers To Call Up Travis Shaw

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The Brewers will call infielder Travis Shaw up from Triple-A prior to tomorrow’s game, The Athletic’s Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal report (Twitter link).  Shaw will take the 25-man roster spot left open by Jhoulys Chacin’s placement on the 10-day injured list.

Shaw was demoted on June 27, but has since shredded Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .316/.494/.754 slash line and eight home runs over only 77 plate appearances.  While the Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter-friendly, Shaw’s breakout provides some hope that he has gotten on track after a dreadful beginning to the 2019 season.  Shaw hit just .164/.278/.290 with six homers over 212 PA for the Brewers, though his performance could have been hampered by a wrist injury that cost him roughly three weeks on the injured list.

While Shaw may be back in the majors, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be back in an everyday role.  The Brewers are likely to stick with Keston Hiura at second base as long as the prized rookie’s bat stays hot, and Shaw obviously isn’t supplanting Mike Moustakas at third.  This could leave first base as Shaw’s best option for playing time, though Eric Thames (another left-handed bat) is hitting well in part-time duty alongside struggling right-handed hitter Jesus Aguilar.

Milwaukee could also simply use Shaw in several places around the diamond, seeing time at first, second, and third base spelling the regulars or being a late-game replacement.  With the trade deadline also looming on July 31, the Brewers could also be looking to shop Shaw (or Thames or Aguilar) to any interested parties, as pitching seems like a much bigger need for the Brew Crew than infield depth.

Brewers Place Jhoulys Chacin On 10-Day Injured List

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TODAY: The Brewers have officially announced Chacin’s IL placement.  A corresponding move will be announced tomorrow.

YESTERDAY: Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is on his way to the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. It’ll be the second IL stint of 2019 for Chacin, who previously missed time with a lower back strain.

When healthy, the 31-year-old Chacin has been a major disappointment for the reigning NL Central champion Brewers, which is one of the reasons why they’re out of a playoff spot right now. At 54-50, they’re two games behind the division-leading Cubs and one back of the NL’s second wild-card spot. Chacin helped guide the Brewers to a playoff spot a year ago, but he has pitched to a woeful 5.79 ERA/5.70 FIP with 8.12 K/9, 3.96 BB/9 and a 37.4 percent groundball rate in 88 2/3 innings this season.

Chacin’s struggles are among the reasons Milwaukee’s a prime candidate to acquire rotation help in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. General manager David Stearns downplayed the possibility Tuesday, but the Brewers are now without two starters in Chacin and their No. 1, Brandon Woodruff. Worsening the Brewers’ situation, their main healthy options – Zach Davies, Chase Anderson and Gio Gonzalez – don’t inspire a great deal of confidence.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mike Moustakas

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You already know the essentials here. Mike Moustakas has twice entered the open market in apparent position to secure a strong, multi-year contract. And he has twice come away with a one-year pillow deal (in each case involving a mutual option that mostly functions to defer some salary). As he closes in on his 31st birthday at the tail end of the 2019 season, Moustakas is still playing well. Can he finally hit it big in free agency? Or will he again be forced to go year-to-year?

When Moustakas first prepared for free agency, entering his age-29 season, he seemed a good bet for a rather hefty contract. He had bounced back well from an injury-limited 2016 campaign; rejecting a qualifying offer was a foregone conclusion. Last winter, the value was down a bit, as were the expectations, but Moustakas still seemed to carry the profile of a player that could hold down regular playing time for a contender. He got a bigger contract, but only a single-season promise.

Fool me once, fool me twice … how about a third time? If the season ended today, I’d be on board once again with predicting multiple seasons at a strong salary. His prior forays may not have ended as hoped, but Moustakas has now twice disproved the doubters. He’s much the same player as ever … thus knocking down some of the biggest questions raised. And there are also some notable shifts in his profile that enhance his appeal.

Offensively, Moustakas hasn’t undergone any reinventions. Instead, he has more or less been the best possible version of himself in 2019. His 123 wRC+ matches his career-best mark from his breakout 2015 season. He’s still tough to strike out (16.8%) and is sporting a career-best 8.3% walk rate. Moose is stinging the ball (career-best 43.0% hard-hit rate) and spraying it to all fields more than ever, even while carrying a career-best .276 isolated power mark and setting a pace to challenge his personal-high of 38 home runs (he has 26 through 410 plate appearances).

Even if we bake in a bit of regression, we’re looking at a pretty strong baseline here. Moustakas has been about 15% better than the league-average hitter over nearly a five-year span. He has stayed in range of that performance level, establishing quite a consistent path. And he has even ironed out his platoon splits this year, performing a touch better against left-handed pitching than against righties. That shift actually accounts for most of Moustakas’s overall improvement at the plate and could be an interesting development in its own right, though it’s tough to assess whether it’s sustainable. The cherry on top offensively? Moustakas appears to be executing better on the bases, with Fangraphs’ BsR grading him as an approximately average runner this season after panning him in some prior campaigns.

And that’s all before we get to the most interesting aspect of Moustakas … his sudden and surprising defensive versatility. He has typically graded well at third base, so it isn’t as if the glove was ever considered a weakness. But there was concern that we were seeing the beginning of a downturn when Moustakas drew negative metrics in 2017, even though he bounced back to average last year. There never seemed to be much hope that he’d expand his repertoire.

As it turns out, the Brewers had other ideas … and they were pretty good ones. The club made the bold move of signing Moustakas with full intentions of deploying him at second base. As things have shaken out, he has split his time between second and his accustomed hot corner. And … Moustakas has thrived at both, grading as a net positive at his new spot and turning in revived marks from both UZR and DRS at third base.

Any other questions? How about durability and conditioning? The torn ACL that ended Moustakas’s ’16 campaign is fully healed. He has never had trouble staying on the field otherwise. While he’s still not speedy, Moustakas has restored his average sprint speed to pre-2016 levels and improved his home-to-first time in successive seasons (by measure of Statcast). Scouts throwing shade at his dad bod may well be humming a different tune this winter. By measure of the eye test, at least, Moustakas is carrying a relatively svelte physique at the moment.

Moustakas will always be more moose than antelope, but he’s also forcing us to reevaluate what such a creature can do on a ballfield. Right now, Moustakas is maximizing his tools offensively, smoothing some rough edges to various aspects of his game, and showing enhanced defensive value and roster versatility. There are some quality infielders on the upcoming market, most notably hot corner stalwarts Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but there should still be plenty of places for Moustakas to land. While he’ll obviously be entering free agency at a more advanced age than he did in his two prior experiences, the third trip might well end up being his most lucrative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Interest In Mets’ Pitchers

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Most reports out of New York over the past few weeks have echoed a familiar trio of names when assessing their trade chips: Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas. The three are free agents at season’s end — Vargas does have an $8MM club option ($2MM buyout) that looks increasingly intriguing — making them natural candidates to be shipped out by a 46-54 Mets team that is closer to the NL’s worst record than to the division lead.

The larger source of intrigue surrounds whether the Mets would move assets controlled beyond the current season. To that end, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports within his latest column that the Mets “have been open to dealing” embattled closer Edwin Diaz. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen isn’t in any type of rush to move his offseason headliner, however. Rather, he’s endeavored to receive a comparable package to the one he surrendered in order to get Diaz in the first place. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets a similar sentiment, noting that the ask on Diaz is “so sky-high that it’s basically a non-starter.” Though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests on Twitter that the Dodgers are a nice match on paper, he doesn’t indicate whether the sides have had actual discussions — let alone whether the Los Angeles organization would meet the Mets’ asking price.

Finding a deal that compares to the one that brought Diaz to New York seems an impossible order. In addition to taking on a hefty chunk of the Robinson Cano contract, the Mets parted with a pair of young players — Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn — who are soaring through the Mariners’ system and up top prospect rankings. Diaz’s strikeout, walk, ground-ball and swinging-strike rates have all gone in the wrong direction. And while he’s tossed six shutout innings since his most recent meltdown — a four-run collapse against the Phillies — he’s still lugging a 4.81 ERA with as many blown saves (four) as he had all of last season.

Even teams that feel they have an answer for Diaz’s struggles wouldn’t be willing to pay a metaphorical dollar-for-dollar rate in negotiations with the Mets. As for taking a lesser deal, the optics of trading him for cents on the dollar while retaining Cano and the sizable portion of his salary they absorbed in that deal would be poor, to say the least. Diaz is controlled through 2022, so a strong finish and/or a 2020 rebound would do wonders for his value.

It seems more plausible that if the Mets were to receive a sizable offer on a controllable arm, it’d be Noah Syndergaard. Olney tweets that the Mets are “seriously listening” to rival clubs that have interest. While Syndergaard hasn’t really thrown in a way that buttresses his own trade value, he’s throwing hard and seems to be in good health. His 4.36 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 would all be career-worsts if the season ended today, but his track record and upside are so impressive that there’ll be loads of interest.

Whether that listening stance has a real chance of turning into meaningful trade talks remains to be seen. Both Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter links) and Andy Martino of SNY cite the Yankees as the club with perhaps the keenest level of interest in Syndergaard. Both reports suggest that top pitching prospect Deivi Garcia could be a headliner in such a deal, and while GM Brian Cashman plainly stated a couple weeks back that he wouldn’t move Garcia for a rental, Heyman suggests that the Yankees would “surely” put Garcia in play if meant obtaining Syndergaard, who is controlled through 2021.

Of course, the Yankees and Mets simply haven’t dealt with one another on the trade market at any point in recent history, which makes negotiations all the more complicated. And Olney tweets that he doesn’t think the New York rivals will be able to make a deal on such a significant player. Martino writes that the two teams have nevertheless talked Syndergaard “many times” this month, swapping proposals and counterproposals with no real progress being made. A deal is characterized as unlikely, although he also lists the Astros, Padres, Brewers and, to a lesser extent, the Twins as teams trying to pry Syndergaard loose.

That high asking price may not be the case with regard to Wheeler, whose value partially hinges on how well he performs in Friday’s expected return from the injured list. The Mets’ hope seems to be that a strong outing will quiet some concerns about Wheeler’s recent shoulder flareup, but the injury undoubtedly quelled some interest in him. Despite the concerns, Yahoo’s Mike Mazzeo cites a Mets official as calling the chances of a Wheeler trade “pretty high.”

If the Mets don’t find any offers on Wheeler to be viable or, even worse, he experiences renewed shoulder discomfort and is forced back to the IL, the club could retain him and issue a qualifying offer at season’s end. Barring a worrying showing, though, it may be that the Mets will end up simply taking the best offer on a player whose tenure in New York has seen its share of peaks and valleys.

Does Brandon Woodruff’s Injury Affect Brewers’ Deadline Plans?

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The Brewers will go without their best starter, Brandon Woodruff, for approximately six weeks after he suffered an oblique strain Sunday. Woodruff’s absence could make it all the more imperative for the Brewers to add a starter before the July 31 trade deadline, but general manager David Stearns conveyed a lack of urgency on the matter Tuesday.

Asked if the Brewers now feel more pressure to address their rotation, Stearns said (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel): “I don’t know that we can let his temporary absence impact how we manage the deadline. I have found that potential acquisition costs generally dictate what is reasonable and what is not.”

With only about nine weeks left in the regular season, it’s probably not reassuring to Brewers fans to hear their GM brush off Woodruff’s absence as “temporary.” Even before the emergent right-hander went down, there was a strong case Milwaukee needed to pick up another starter prior to the end of the month. For what it’s worth, the team did reportedly show interest in the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard–Zack Wheeler duo (links here) and the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (link) back when Woodruff was healthy.

As for the Brewers’ current options, Zach Davies has prevented runs to an impressive degree, but his peripherals don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. Chase Anderson has turned in fine results, though he has only completed six innings in one start. Jhoulys Chacin’s season has been calamitous. Gio Gonzalez just returned from an almost two-month absence because of a dead arm, and has only averaged five frames per outing when he has taken the ball. Adrian Houser had been in the rotation out of desperation before Gonzalez came back last weekend, but the production he has posted as a starter and reliever indicates he’s much better off in a bullpen role.

The flaws in the Brewers’ rotation have helped lead to several weeks of underwhelming play from the club, though it’s still smack dab in the playoff hunt. With a 53-46 record, the reigning NL Central champions are two games behind the division-leading Cubs and 1 1/2 out of a wild-card spot. Of course, it would have been a challenge for the Brewers to clinch their second straight playoff berth for the first time since 1982 even if Woodruff had avoided the IL. Now, if the team doesn’t adequately replace Woodruff in the next week, its chances of fading from the race seem likely to increase.

Rays Interested In Jesus Aguilar

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The Rays, continuing their search for a right-handed slugger, have shown interest in Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Mark Feinsand and Juan Toribio of MLB.com report. Tampa Bay was previously connected to other notable right-handed hitters in the Rangers’ Hunter Pence and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos (links: 1, 2).

Unlike Texas and Detroit, Milwaukee doesn’t look like a potential seller going into the July 31 trade deadline. The Brewers are a game back of wild-card position and two behind the first-place Cubs in the National League Central. As such, it’s far from a sure thing the Brewers will trade Aguilar. If they do, it would have to benefit them immediately, per Feinsand and Toribio.

Considering Aguilar hasn’t been the integral piece of the Brewers’ roster that he was during a division-winning 2018, he does look more expendable now than he did at the outset of the season. Aguilar slashed .274/.352/.539 with 35 home runs over 566 plate appearances last year to serve as one of the majors’ fiercest sluggers. That production now looks like a distant memory.

So far this season, Aguilar has hit a meek .230/.328/.385 with eight HRs and a massive drop in ISO (from .264 to .155). The 29-year-old has raked in July (.342/.395/.684 in 43 PA), but it’s the sole month in which Aguilar has registered above-average production at the plate. He and the lefty-swinging Eric Thames, who’s having a much better season, have been platooning at first for the Brew Crew.

For all the faults in Aguilar’s bottom-line production, there are reasons for hope. For one, he remains something of a Statcast favorite. There’s a wide chasm between Aguilar’s weighted-on base average (.312) and expected wOBA (.351). He ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in xwOBA and checks in similarly well in expected slugging percentage (65th) and exit velocity (66th). And contrary to many other power hitters, Aguilar’s not overly prone to striking out. He has fanned a reasonable 22.9 percent of the time (with a better-than-average 12.3 percent walk rate), posted a decent 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate and chased out-of-zone pitches less than most hitters.

Should the Brewers part with Aguilar, an acquiring team would be landing a player who’s cheap now and under control for a while. Aguilar, currently on a near-minimum salary, is slated to take his first of three potential arbitration trips during the upcoming offseason.

Brewers To Place Brandon Woodruff On 10-Day IL Due To Oblique Injury

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TODAY: Skipper Craig Counsell says the organization anticipates about a six-week absence, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to cover on Twitter. More will be known after the club learns the results of a full examination and MRi today.

YESTERDAY: The Brewers are placing Brandon Woodruff on the 10-day injured list after the right-hander suffered a left oblique injury during today’s game.  (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report the news.)  Woodruff was two pitches into the fourth inning of today’s start against Arizona when he suffered the injury, and left the game after a visit from the team trainer.

An MRI is scheduled for Monday to determine the extent of the injury, though the best-case scenario is at least a couple of weeks on the IL.  Depending on the severity, many oblique injuries usually require a month or more of recovery time, so the Brewers could potentially be without arguably their best starting pitcher for much (or all) of the pennant race.

Woodruff emerged as both a starter and a multi-inning bullpen weapon for the Brewers down the stretch and into the postseason last year, and earned enough trust from Milwaukee brass to begin the season in the rotation.  That decision proved to be a great one, as Woodruff ended up earning a spot on the NL All-Star team.  Including today’s abbreviated outing against the D’Backs, Woodruff has posted a 3.75 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and only a 2.22 K/BB rate over 117 2/3 innings in 2019.  As per Statcast numbers, he has been one of the league’s best pitchers at limiting exit velocity and hard-hit contract, holding opposing batters to a .286 xwOBA.

Woodruff has been a stabilizing force within a Brewers rotation that has generally delivered middle-of-the-pack numbers this year.  Among the most frustrating parts of Woodruff’s injury was that Milwaukee’s starters were beginning to show signs of rounding into form as a whole, as Gio Gonzalez was back from an IL stint and Chase Anderson has quietly re-established himself as a solid starter after beginning the season in the bullpen.  Zach Davies has also continued to pitch well in terms of bottom-line results, posting a 2.79 ERA despite some questionable advanced metrics.  In terms of a short-term replacement for Woodruff, Adrian Houser is likely the top choice to pick up starts in Woodruff’s place, though a pair of upcoming off-days on the schedule means that a fifth starter likely won’t be needed until sometime next week.

Today’s news will only intensify the Brewers’ search for pitching at the trade deadline, as the team had already been linked to such names as Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard on the starter front, and the Giants’ Will Smith as a potential bullpen upgrade.  Despite some unimpressive play in recent weeks, the Brewers are still in possession of an NL wild card berth, and are two games behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  GM David Stearns said earlier this week that his club was planning to be deadline buyers, though left the door to perhaps standing pat (or at least not making any major splashes) unless the Brewers started to string together some wins.  Today’s win over the D’Backs gave Milwaukee five victories in its last six games.

Brewers Activate Gio Gonzalez

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The Brewers announced the activation of left-hander Gio Gonzalez, who will start in Arizona on Saturday. The Brew Crew optioned righty Burch Smith to Triple-A San Antonio in a corresponding move.

Gonzalez is returning after missing almost two months because of a dead arm. Through May 27, the day Gonzalez made his most recent start, the 33-year-old logged a 3.19 ERA/3.25 FIP with 7.55 K/9, 2.61 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent groundball rate in 31 innings. Considering Gonzalez was stuck in free agency until late March, when he joined the Yankees on a minor league deal, and didn’t sign with Milwaukee until the end of April, the Brewers couldn’t have asked for much more from the ex-Athletic and National over his first six starts.

If Gonzalez proves to be close to as effective upon his return as he was before landing on the shelf, he could be a key midseason reinforcement for the Brewers. The defending NL Central champions have struggled of late and are now outside the playoff picture, albeit by just half a game, in part because their pitching staff has been a letdown. But getting back Gonzalez could improve both the Brewers’ rotation and their bullpen. Right-hander Adrian Houser, whom the Brewers moved from their bullpen to their rotation after Gonzalez went down, is now back in a relief role. Houser hasn’t performed well as a starter this year, but he has been superb as a reliever.

Drew Smyly Elects Free Agency

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5:29pm: The Phillies have interest in Smyly, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).

1:10pm: Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly has opted out of his minor league contract with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (on Twitter). Smyly had signed a minor league pact with Milwaukee back on July 1 after being cut loose from the Rangers.

Smyly made three starts with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in San Antonio, where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits (two homers) and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. It’s a small but slightly more encouraging showing than he had with Texas earlier in the year. Smyly, pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2017 Tommy John surgery, was tattooed for an 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings as a Ranger. While he averaged better than a strikeout per inning there, Smyly also walked 34 batters (6.0 BB/9) and served up a staggering 19 home runs (3.33 HR/9).

Prior to undergoing surgery, Smyly displayed a knack for missing bats and strong control skills, but home runs have long been an issue for him. He’s always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the league-wide uptick in home runs hasn’t done him any favors in 2019. Smyly’s average fastball velocity is back to its career norm, and he’s avoided any trips to the injured list thus far, so it seems as though he’s back to full strength following that surgery. He’ll head back to the open market in search of a new opportunity with a club that has its eyes on some affordable rotation depth; any team that signs Smyly would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors.

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