The Brewers’ Infield Picture
Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell‘s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.
Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.
Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.
The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.
Mariners Claim Taylor Williams, Designate Phillips Valdez
The Mariners have claimed reliever Taylor Williams off waivers from the Brewers, per a club announcement. The Seattle org designated fellow 28-year-old righty Phillips Valdez to create roster space.
Williams, who recently lost his spot in the Milwaukee bullpen mix, seemed like a possible waiver target. While the hard-throwing righty hasn’t yet entrenched himself in a MLB relief unit, he turned in 54 innings of 2.83 ERA ball at the Triple-A level last year. He racked up 9.5 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 while carrying a strong 54.0% groundball rate.
As for Valdez, he was claimed earlier in the winter but didn’t last long in camp before losing his roster spot. If he clears waivers, he’ll presumably remain on hand as a non-roster player. Valdez debuted in the majors last year, recording 16 innings of 3.94 ERA ball, but spent most of the year as a swingman at Triple-A. He worked to a 4.92 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and a 51.6% groundball rate in 78 2/3 innings of action in the PCL.
Brewers Sign Brock Holt
FEB. 20: Holt’s deal is worth a guaranteed $3.25MM, Rosenthal tweets. It comes with a $5MM club option or a $750K buyout in 2021, and has incentives worth $250K each for 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances.
FEB. 17: The Brewers have agreed to a deal with infielder Brock Holt, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If the physical checks out, Holt will be a late addition to a Milwaukee roster that has already seen multiple infield acquisitions.
Holt was one of the top remaining free agents. The 31-year-old may not leap off the page in many regards but he has been quite a useful player. At his best, Holt has turn in roughly league-average offensive work while contributing with the glove at multiple positions.
It’s hardly surprising that the Brewers wish to provide a Swiss Army knife to skipper Craig Counsell. It’s just that he already has a few in his knapsack. The club had already picked up defensive vagabonds Luis Urias, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Ryon Healy, Ronny Rodriguez, and Mark Mathias this winter, in addition to adding non-roster players Jace Peterson and Andres Blanco.
Among the players added, Holt probably comes with the most functions. In particular, he’s capable of lining up anywhere in the field that doesn’t involve extra protective gear or a climb atop a hill. Holt has played at least 200 MLB innings at six positions and 75 2/3 at one other (shortstop) — and he has mostly done so with solid-to-good grades from metrics.
He has always reached base at a solid rate, producing a career .340 OBP by carrying solid walk rates and strong batting averages. Holt has trended up in the past two seasons at the plate, turning in a collective .286/.366/.407 batting line in 662 plate appearances — a bit above the league-average overall output.
Those nice efforts with the bat came on the heels of a tough 2017 season in which Holt struggled with symptoms of a concussion, vertigo, and anxiety. It’s obviously great to see him rebound since, though Holt has not returned with quite the same athleticism. Once a highly graded and rather swift baserunner, Holt now rates in the bottom third or so leaguewide in terms of sprint speed.
While Holt doesn’t carry drastic career platoon splits, he has been a bit better — especially in the power department — when facing opposite-handed pitching during his career. The left-handed hitter seems likely to supplement the right-handed-hitting Keston Hiura at second base, spend some time in the corner outfield, and perhaps line up occasionally at third base. Fellow left-handed-hitting utilityman Eric Sogard is also primarily a second baseman by trade, but has more experience on the left side of the infield than does Holt and could see most of his action there.
Brewers Announce Brock Holt Signing, Designate Taylor Williams
The Brewers have announced the previously reported signing of utilityman Brock Holt to a one-year deal. It includes a club option.
To create roster space, righty Taylor Williams was designated for assignment. He has been with the Milwaukee organization since he was selected in the fourth round of the 2013 draft.
Williams received a long look in 2018, throwing 53 innings of 4.25 ERA ball with 9.7 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. He didn’t get many chances last year. In 14 2/3 innings, he allowed a ghastly 16 earned runs — though half of those came in one forgettable appearance and Williams carried much the same peripherals as the season prior.
There’s actually some reason to think that Williams is a more interesting pitcher now than he was this time in 2019. He worked to a 2.83 ERA in 54 frames in the hitter-friendly PCL. And he produced a sudden surge in worm burners, drawing grounders on over half of the balls put in play against him at both the Triple-A and MLB levels without sacrificing strikeouts. Williams sports a ~96 mph heater and 12.8% swinging-strike rate in the majors, so the groundball capabilities add to an already interesting skillset.
MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?
With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.
The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.
Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt‘s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.
The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.
Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?
(Poll link for app users)
Which team do you expect to win the NL Central?
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Reds 39% (9,801)
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Cardinals 31% (7,691)
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Cubs 18% (4,594)
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Brewers 12% (3,094)
Total votes: 25,180
Brewers, Brent Suter Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal
The Brewers announced on Sunday that they’ve signed left-handed pitcher Brent Suter to a two-year deal, avoiding arbitration. Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, it’s a $2.5MM guarantee for the 30-year-old Suter: he’ll collect salaries of $900K in 2020 and $1.5MM in 2021, along with a $100K signing bonus. The contract also includes incentives that could bring Suter’s 2021 salary to $1.75MM based on innings pitched milestones.
Until the two sides reached an agreement, Suter was scheduled to have an arbitration hearing tomorrow; he had asked for $1.25MM while the Brewers offered $825K.
The two-year deal means that the Brewers have bought out Suter’s first two years of arbitration eligibility. However, since he’s a Super Two player, he’ll still have two years of eligibility remaining after the contract expires. Suter is due to reach free agency after the 2023 season.
Suter enjoyed a nice season—albeit a shortened one—in 2019, after spending the majority of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He proved a valuable multi-inning, change-of-pace option in the bullpen, tossing 18 1/3 innings and allowing just one run.
And while Suter seems likely to begin the 2020 season in the bullpen, it’s clear from the incentive clauses in his contract (Suter would max out the bonuses with 160 IP) that the Brewers still see potential for Suter to start games this year. With newcomers Josh Lindblom, Eric Lauer, and Brett Anderson rounding out the projected Opening Day rotation, Suter will likely have to cut his teeth as a multi-inning reliever and spot starter, but could get an opportunity to start in case of injuries.
Josh Hader Discusses Arbitration Defeat
Brewers reliever Josh Hader just barely earned Super Two status this offseason, setting him up to take four trips through arbitration instead of three. Hader then filed for a $6.4MM salary – a far cry from the $4.1MM the Brewers proposed. The decision on the case came down Friday, and the Brewers emerged as the victors. Even in defeat, Hader’s now set to make significantly more than he’d have hauled in had he not gotten to arbitration this early. But this loss will negatively affect Hader’s earning power in future years, and he’d like to see a change in the system.
Speaking on Friday, the 25-year-old left-hander said (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com): “We definitely knew that we were the underdogs going into it. But it’s something that needs to be put out there: Baseball’s always changing, and we’re at a point now that we’re continuing to change, and I think the system needs to change with that. You can see it in baseball now — a lot of relievers aren’t in certain roles that they once were.”
Hader added that the current arbitration setup is “outdated” with respect to reliever usage, and it’s difficult to argue against that. The present system puts a great deal of emphasis on racking up saves and holds, which doesn’t seem fair to dominant relievers who aren’t just used in those spots (Hader, for example). Hader does have 49 saves and 39 holds since he debuted in 2017 (including 37 and six in those respective categories in 2019), but the Brewers utilized him in various high-leverage situations in his first two seasons, thereby hurting his counting stats. That tactic, while perhaps wise on the team’s part, didn’t do Hader any favors in his initial arbitration hearing.
No matter how they’ve used him, Hader has been lights-out. A two-time All-Star and a back-to-back NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader owns a superb 2.42 ERA/2.74 FIP with 15.35 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 through 204 career 2/3 innings. Furthermore, he has regularly recorded more than three outs per appearance. Given Hader’s excellence to date and Friday’s results, he’s not unreasonable to contend that the arbitration process is behind the times for those in his position.
Brewers Defeat Josh Hader In Arbitration
The Brewers have won their arbitration case against lefty relief ace Josh Hader, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll receive the $4.1MM that the team presented rather than the $6.4MM salary he had sought.
This is a significant win for the team side. For the Brewers, specifically, it not only means immediate savings but sets the team up to pay quite a lot less in each of the three remaining seasons of team control.
More broadly, this case now joins the Dellin Betances ruling in tamping down arbitration leverage for exceptional relief pitchers who have not accumulated a large number of saves. It has been a good winter for teams generally, as they’ve taken six of seven arbitration hearings thus far after the players scored some wins last offseason.
Hader, 25, will not earn as much as he had hoped. But he’ll still do much better throughout his arbitration years than would’ve been expected at the time of his initial promotion to the majors. Most of that is due to his excellent work on the field, of course, but he also did not seem in line for Super Two status. Hader just did sneak in to early arb qualification owing to this year’s unusually low service-time cutoff.
The Brewers have received quite a few good innings from Hader over the past three years. In 204 2/3 total frames, he carries a 2.42 ERA with 15.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. He was homer-prone last year but otherwise remained all but impossible to square up. The flamethrower finished the season with a personal-best 6.90 K/BB ratio.
Phillies Claim Deolis Guerra, Designate J.D. Hammer
The Phillies announced this afternoon that they’ve claimed righty Deolis Guerra off outright waivers from the Brewers and designated fellow right-hander J.D. Hammer for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Philadelphia also announced that right-hander Trevor Kelley, who was designated for assignment late last week, cleared waivers and has been sent outright to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Guerra, 30, was dominant in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in 2019, logging 66 2/3 innings with a 1.89 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate for Milwaukee’s top affiliate. He pitched just two-thirds of an inning in the big leagues and only has a total of 95 2/3 MLB frames under his belt in all, but Guerra ranked in the 80th percentile in fastball spin rate during his last full MLB season with the Angels in 2017.
Milwaukee signed Guerra to a big league deal earlier this winter but opted to designate him for assignment last week after agreeing to a one-year deal with righty David Phelps. Guerra is out of minor league options, so he becomes a strong possibility to break camp with the Phillies, so long as he pitches reasonably well in Spring Training.
Hammer, 25, posted a 3.79 ERA in his big league debut in 2019, allowing eight runs on just 15 hits in 19 innings of work. However, he also issued 12 walks against just 13 strikeouts in that time, continuing some troublesome control issues that surfaced in Triple-A (15 walks in 15 2/3 innings there). Injuries have combined to limit Hammer to just 170 total innings between the big leagues and the minors since he was selected by the Rockies in the 24th round of the 2016 draft. That, paired with his recent control issues, apparently made him expendable to the Phillies, who now have a week to trade Hammer, release him or try to pass him through outright waivers.
The 26-year-old Kelley was also a waiver claim by the Phillies, coming over from the Red Sox organization in early December. He struggled in his MLB debut this past season (eight runs in 8 1/3 innings) but posted impressive minor league numbers in 2019 (1.79 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 in 65 2/3 innings).
Brewers Sign Andres Blanco To Minor League Deal
The Brewers announced that they’ve signed veteran infielder Andres Blanco to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. He’s represented by GSE Worldwide.
Blanco will turn 36 in April and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017, but he’s had a pair of productive Triple-A campaigns in 2018 and 2019 — the former actually coming with the Brewers organization. Blanco hit .271/.362/.435 (111 wRC+) in 357 plate appearances with Triple-A Colorado Springs that season. Last year, with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, he put together a nearly identical .262/.364/.443 slash (109 wRC+) in a larger sample of 530 plate appearances.
The veteran Blanco has played in parts of 10 MLB seasons, logging time at each infield position and batting a combined .256/.310/.378 in 1321 trips to the plate. His signing comes just days after the Brewers found out projected shortstop Luis Urias will need six to eight weeks to recover from surgery to repair a broken hamate bone — an injury he sustained while playing in the Mexican Pacific Winter League. Blanco will head to Spring Training and vie to join a currently fluid infield mix that includes Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Orlando Arcia, Ryon Healy and Justin Smoak, among others.