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What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?

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The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams.  Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage.  The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round.  For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.

With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded.  Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league.  Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.

Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.  This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.

To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves.  Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place.  Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.

(First, some notes on the draft order.  The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients.  That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B.  If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round.  Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order.  This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks.  The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)

Onto the selections….

Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.  Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure.  The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins’ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.

Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick.  If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.

Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal.  Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team.  The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers.  With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.

Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves.  With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities.  Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.

Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons.  As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft.  Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.

Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.

Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade.  This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.

Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.

Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year.  Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.

Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.

Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.

Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey.  While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick.  Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.

Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom.  Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.

Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending.  In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.

Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons.  Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.

Dylan Cease Discusses Trade Rumors

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For the second consecutive season, right-hander Dylan Cease is the most talked about player in trade rumors as the winter gives way to Spring Training. The then-White Sox hurler was shipped to the Padres in mid-March of last year, just before San Diego started their season in Seoul. It remains to be seen if the club will turn around and deal him during the spring themselves one year later, but AJ Cassavell of MLB.com notes that Cease made clear he isn’t bothered by the rumors swirling around him at yesterday’s FanFest event.

“You just focus on the task at hand,” Cease said, as relayed by Cassavell. “It’s just part of the business, really.”

Cease went on to note how much he loves San Diego and added that he would “definitely” like to stay in town. It certainly remains possible that he’ll be a Padre in 2025 even if it’s difficult to imagine him returning to San Diego upon hitting free agency this offseason. As Cassavell notes, however, a trade might be the most sensible path for the Padres as they navigate a budget crunch with multiple significant holes in their projected 2025 lineup. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Cease bring back the sort of significant return that could address multiple needs for the Padres while also getting his $13.75MM salary off the books to clear the way for further additions.

With that being said, getting the right deal for Cease may be easier said than done. The Cubs, Twins, and Mets are among the teams that have been connected to Cease in recent days, but there have been some indications from both Minnesota and New York that a trade could be difficult to work out. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this weekend that the Padres are asking for “significant major-league value” in Cease talks, adding that rival executives believe the club is “emboldened” by the exceptional return they received from the Yankees in last winter’s Juan Soto deal. Meanwhile, Hayes reports that the Twins are unwilling to part with top prospects like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall at this time and prefer to offer a package of big leaguers who can help address San Diego’s needs in the lineup and rotation.

That might sound like the teams match up well at first glance, but Hayes adds that the specifics of the return package figure to be a sitcking point. He suggests that the Padres are likely to ask for one of Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober as the centerpiece of a deal, which is an ask that it’s hard to imagine Minnesota agreeing to given that both are established, quality mid-rotation arms with three years of team control remaining. Hayes notes that the Twins would prefer to offer a package headlined by a young starter like Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson that would also include Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro. Woods Richardson posted solid back-of-the-rotation production for the Twins in his rookie season last year, with a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts, while Matthews struggled in nine starts at the big league level but remains the club’s top pitching prospect and is generally believed to project as a #4 starter in the majors long-term.

The value discrepancy between players of Ryan and Ober’s caliber and the likes of Matthews and Woods Richardson is significant, and the sides would need to move significant off their current stances in order for a deal to come together. It appears to be a similar story with the Mets, as Will Sammon of The Athletic recently described Cease coming to Queens as “unlikely” due to the expected acquisition cost. Whether that’s due to a lack of willingness to part with a high-end package in order to land Cease or if the club simply lacks the pieces necessary to get a deal done is unclear, however, as Sammon goes on to mention the club’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet earlier this winter. The Mets were among a number of teams interested in Crochet, but he ultimately was dealt to the Red Sox because, as Sammon writes, Boston was able to offer “higher-quality prospects” than the Mets were.

Sammon goes on to suggests that the Mets could swing a deal if the Padres’ asking price comes down through the spring or revisit talks at the trade deadline, when Cease would be less valuable due to an acquiring club no longer being able to extend him the Qualifying Offer. Of course, a Cease trade may be far less likely by the time the summer rolls around. The Padres will have to fill their vacancies in the lineup one way or another before the season begins, and if they manage to do so without dealing Cease it’s difficult to imagine the club then shifting gears and shipping Cease out in the middle of a pennant race unless they’ve fallen out of contention.

Mariners Less Likely To Trade Luis Castillo; Twins Showed Interest

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Luis Castillo’s name has swirled in trade rumors for much of the offseason, as since Castillo is far and away the priciest member of the Mariners’ rotation, Seattle has at least been more open to discussing Castillo than any of its other starting pitchers.  However, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times writes that a Castillo trade “is less likely now than it was early in the winter,” even if the Mariners will continue to explore other possibilities to build on what might be a mostly set roster.

Infield help was the Mariners’ clearest need heading into the winter, leading to natural speculation that the M’s would move Castillo or another starting pitcher for a clear-cut everyday player that could slide right as an everyday option at first, second, or third base.  This said, Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has long said that the M’s would trade from their rotation only as a last resort, so it might not be any surprise that the club is now moving away from Castillo after addressing its infield needs in free agency.

Jorge Polanco and Donovan Solano were both recently signed to one-year deals, adding a pair of experienced players to the infield mix for $11.25MM in guaranteed money.  These expenditures have absorbed much of the limited budget Dipoto had to work with, as Jude reiterates that the Mariners had roughly $15MM in available payroll space this winter.  Between this lack of spending ability and nearly league-wide demand for only MLB-caliber talent (rather than prospects) on the trade market, Dipoto’s hands may have been somewhat tied, and he opted to instead run it back with Seattle’s superb rotation rather than take the risk of diminishing the rotation for a hitting upgrade.

On paper, trading Castillo would’ve helped the Mariners both add a bat and cut some payroll, since the right-hander is owed $68.25MM in guaranteed money through the 2027 season.  (A vesting option for the 2028 season could add another $25MM in salary if Castillo remains healthy and tosses at least 180 innings in 2027.)  That said, Castillo’s salary was also no small consideration for other teams — in trade talks with the Red Sox, Boston was reportedly only willing to move Triston Casas for Castillo if Masataka Yoshida was also sent along with Casas as salary offset.

Several of the teams cited by MLBTR’s Nick Deeds in late December as potential Castillo trade fits have since acquired other pitchers, further narrowing Seattle’s list of options.  Opening Day is still eight weeks’ away, of course, so there’s plenty of time for the Mariners to pivot back to a Castillo deal if circumstances (i.e. injuries, a drop in asking prices) should change either for the M’s or a mystery team.

Perhaps as an example, the Twins hadn’t been considered as a potential landing spot for Castillo, but The Athletic’s Dan Hayes hears from a Twins source that reports that Minnesota did indeed check in with the Mariners about the veteran righty.  It doesn’t appear to be any more than a due diligence exploration, however, as Hayes suggests that Castillo’s contract is too pricey for the Twins’ liking.

Minnesota is also working within payroll restrictions, as Hayes writes that the Twins may have around $5MM in additional spending space for 2025.  Multiple reports suggest that the Twins would first have to trade some contracts off the books in order to make space for new acquisitions, which is why Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack have been oft-mentioned trade candidates.

It was just over a year ago that the Twins and Mariners combined on a prominent trade that sent Polanco to Seattle in the first place, so the two teams have a recent working relationship.  Still, the two teams are somewhat in the same boat of trying to both fix some clear needs on their rosters while also spending as little as possible, leaving little common ground on the trade front.  Minnesota has been more recently linked to Dylan Cease’s market, and while prying Cease away from the Padres won’t be easy, his $13.75MM salary for just the 2025 season (Cease is a free agent next winter) is a better financial fit for the Twins’ books.

Twins Notes: Varland, Woods Richardson, Castro

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The Twins entered the 2024 season with high hopes that prospect and Twin Cities native Louie Varland would step up and seize a spot in the rotation. The former 15th-round pick had the look of a late-round steal, having climbed to the No. 88 prospect in the game on FanGraphs’ top-100 rankings after pitching to a 3.06 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate in 126 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 and notching a 3.81 ERA through 26 frames in his MLB debut late that season. Varland posted a 3.97 ERA with similar strikeout and walk rates in 81 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2023 and then held his own with a 4.63 ERA and continued K-BB rates in his 2023 range.

The 2024 season, however, could scarcely have gone worse for Varland. He lasted four starts in the rotation before being optioned to Triple-A with a 9.18 ERA (17 runs in 16 2/3 innings). Varland had a rollercoaster season in Triple-A, resulting in a 4.75 ERA through 16 starts, though a disproportionate amount of damage came in one start that saw him tagged for a staggering 11 earned runs. (He had a combined 3.67 ERA in his other appearances.) A late look in the majors yielded poor overall results, though Varland did finish with a nice stretch of 7 2/3 innings, wherein he allowed two runs with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that as the Twins gear up for 2025, it appears increasingly likely that Varland will be ticketed for a relief role. The St. Paul native averaged better than 95 mph on his heater last season even when working as a starter; it’s reasonable to expect that velocity to play up in a transition to a shorter role. Varland has posted at least average swinging-strike rates in the upper minors and big leagues as well, so it stands to reason that he could see an uptick in whiffs with a more powerful repertoire.

One reason it’s become easier to move a former rotation hopeful like Varland to the ’pen has been the reemergence of Simeon Woods Richardson. The former top prospect had tumbled down Minnesota’s starting pitching depth chart heading into ’24 after a dismal 2023 showing in Triple-A. But, as Woods Richardson explained in a sitdown with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, an offseason and spring training of work with the Twins’ data team and coaching staff brought about a new arm slot that produced more velocity and a new-look slider that broke out as his most effective secondary pitch.

Woods Richardson wore down a bit late in the 2024 season as he pushed to a new career-high level in terms of workload (31 starts, 147 innings), but he finished the season with a 4.17 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. His four-seamer, which averaged just 90.7 mph in his brief MLB looks in 2022-23, sat at 93.1 mph on the season despite fading over his final six starts (92.1 mph average four-seamer, 6.75 ERA). Woods Richardson, acquired alongside Austin Martin in the trade that sent the final year-plus of control over Jose Berrios to Toronto, now looks like he’ll open the 2025 season locked into the No. 4 spot in Minnesota’s rotation behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

Development from in-house arms of this nature will be key for the Twins in 2025, as ownership has handcuffed the baseball operations staff all offseason in terms of roster additions, as the Pohlad family explores a sale of the club. The Twins have been active in trade talks but have not yet pieced together a deal of much note. They’ve added some catching depth in small swaps for former top prospect Diego Cartaya and utilityman Mickey Gasper, but top trade candidates like Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack remain with the club. The Twins still would like to add at first base and pick up a right-handed hitting outfielder, but there’s been no trade of note and not one major league free agent signing thus far, given payroll constraints from ownership. The Twins may not need to cut payroll from its current level, but they also don’t have much (or any) room to raise it without a trade that trims some salary from the books.

With those financial limitations in mind, the front office is considering some time at first base for utilityman Willi Castro, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Twenty-six-year-old Jose Miranda, who bounced back from a 2023 season ruined by shoulder surgery to bat .284/.322/.441 last year (115 wRC+) is the top in-house option at the moment. He’s played 698 big league innings there and graded poorly from a defensive standpoint, although the former second baseman/third baseman was largely learning the position on the fly in 2022 when he tallied 595 of those innings; he’d entered that season with all of 225 career minor league innings at the position.

It seems unlikely that Castro would be a regular option at first, given the value of his versatility. He’s a viable backup at shortstop, second base, third base and anywhere in the outfield. Adding first base to that repertoire only further broadens his importance to the club. There’s been some thought that Castro and his own $6.4MM salary could be a candidate to change hands, though doing so would thin out the Twins’ depth at all those positions and remove one of the team’s best baserunners. With Minnesota at least ostensibly not required to slash payroll any further, trading Castro seems like a scenario to which the front office would be heavily opposed.

Twins Notes: Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Lewis

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The TwinsFest fan event in Minnesota was today and, as noted by Matthew Leach of MLB.com, manager Rocco Baldelli and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey provided updates on the health of a number of major players on the roster. Chief among those was shortstop Carlos Correa, who turned in phenomenal numbers for the Twins on a rate basis last year but was limited to just 86 games due to plantar fasciitis. Falvey noted today that Correa has had “no issues” with his plantar fasciitis this offseason, and Correa himself backed that up.

“I’m ready to go, full go for spring training,” Correa told reporters, as relayed by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. “I’ve been sprinting. I’ve been running around. I’ve been doing about everything. I’ve been focused on not only just treatment but also strengthening. A lot of walking barefoot around the house. All that’s helping work on my toes and all that, so I’m in a really good spot.”

Nightengale adds that Correa is ahead of schedule relative to last offseason and has already begun hitting and taking groundballs in addition to running. That Correa appears to be fully healthy headed into 2025 is surely a huge relief for the Twins, as the shortstop is arguably the club’s most impactful player when healthy. If he can deliver anything like last season’s .310/.388/.517 slash line over a full season this year, that should be a huge boost for the Twins as they angle towards making a return to the postseason following a frustrating late-season collapse last September.

Correa isn’t the only impact player who received a positive health update today, however. Falvey and Baldelli both indicated that having a normal offseason without any rehabbing or physical therapy has done wonders for center fielder Byron Buxton, who has often been injured frequently throughout his career but managed to appear in 102 games this year with a .279/.335/.524 slash line in 388 trips to the plate. If he can build on his healthy offseason and stay on the field in 2025, that would give the Twins a second player with five-win potential in their lineup alongside Correa.

Turning to the rotation, right-hander Joe Ryan ended the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to Grade 2 teres major strain that sidelined him back in August. Fortunately, the issue has not bled into the offseason and Leach indicates that he’s at the same point in his throwing program that he would be at this point in the winter during any other year. That’s surely a huge relief for the Twins given that Ryan was their best starter last year when healthy. The 28-year-old righty posted a strong 3.60 ERA (115 ERA+) with a 3.44 FIP and a strong 27.3% strikeout rate in 23 starts for the club last season. Building on that performance in 2025 would be particularly key for the Twins if staff ace Pablo Lopez were to be traded this winter, though rumors have quieted down on that front since reports indicated the club was listening to offers on him last month.

One other update to come from today’s festivities involved infielder Royce Lewis and the club’s plans for him in 2025. Earlier this winter, reporting indicated that the Twins were considering a shift from third base to second for Lewis. Since then, it’s been confirmed that the club plans to have Lewis take reps at both positions during Spring Training, but LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune relayed this evening that Falvey made clear the club’s plan as things stand is for Lewis to continue playing third base during the season this year. That would seemingly leave second base open for 2022 first rounder Brooks Lee, though Edouard Julien is also capable of playing the position.

Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Twins and Padres have both been fairly quiet this winter but could be ramping up to make some moves before the season starts. Per reporting from Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the club have discussed trade scenarios involving catcher Christian Vázquez but the Twins are also among the clubs that have interested in San Diego right-hander Dylan Cease.

That’s not to suggest that a one-for-one swap of Vázquez for Cease is at all feasible. Vázquez is going to make $10MM this year, making him a bit overpaid as a part-time, glove-first catcher. Cease, on the other hand, is an excellent starting pitcher who is going to make $13.75MM this  year. That gives him tremendous surplus value.

That the Twins would be interested in Cease is not surprising as just about any club would be, since he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past four years. From 2021 to 2024, he has made at least 32 starts in each of those seasons. His 716 innings thrown in that time is seventh in the majors behind only Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, José Berríos and Kevin Gausman.

That quantity has also come with quality, as Cease has allowed 3.52 earned runs per nine while striking out 29.7% of batters faced. His 9.7% walk rate was on the high side but not by much. His 17.2 wins above replacement in that time is sixth in the majors, behind the five the aforementioned pitchers but ahead of Berríos.

The best free agent pitchers generally get over $30MM annually, with Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes both getting over that line this year. Even older pitchers coming off injury-marred seasons like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander will outearn Cease this year, with each getting a $15MM salary for 2025.

All those factors make him very valuable to the Padres but they might be boxed into a corner where they have to consider making him available. RosterResource projects them for a $208MM payroll this year, which is well beyond last year’s $169MM figure. They can reportedly push a little higher than their 2024 number but not by too much, so cutting some decent money seems to be necessary. They will have to do that while also filling holes in left field and behind the plate, as well as the rotation.

There aren’t many great options for clearing money. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove all have no-trade clauses on their contracts. Jake Cronenworth only has an eight-team no-trade clause but his deal is tough to move regardless since his production dropped off after he signed that deal and there is still $71MM to be paid out over the next six years. Robert Suarez only has three years left on his deal but the opt-out/player option a year from now complicates trade talks.

All that leaves Luis Arráez and Cease as the best trade options. Each is going into his final arbitration season and set to make an eight-figure salary. However, Arráez may not have tremendous trade value, despite his elite batting averages. He’s not a good defender, baserunner or power threat, limiting his overall production.

It all leaves the Padres and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller with a tricky tightrope to walk. Cease is probably their best option for doing a trade somewhat resembling the Juan Soto deal from last offseason. In that deal, the Padres took one great player and his notable salary, trading him and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for a five-player package. One of those players was Michael King, who bolstered their rotation. Another was prospect Drew Thorpe, whom the Padres used to get Cease. The additions of Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito also bolstered the catching and pitching depth.

Flipping Cease to help in several areas might be the best option for the Friars now but it would also likely weaken the rotation that already looks like a soft spot. With Musgrove set to miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the rotation currently consists of King, Cease, Darvish and question marks. Guys like Vásquez, Brito, Matt Waldron and Adrián Morejón are potential back-end guys but it’s not a strong overall group. That would be even more true without Cease.

The Twins have their own financial concerns but could perhaps make it work with Cease. Recent reporting has suggested that the Twins don’t really need to cut payroll but don’t have much room to add at the moment either. Trading part of the $10MM owed to Vázquez would help, as could moving the $7.5MM owed to Chris Paddack or the $6.4MM for Willi Castro.

The Twins currently project to have a rotation consisting of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack. Swapping in Cease for Paddack would obviously be an upgrade, considering Paddack hasn’t pitched much over the past few years due to elbow issues, including Tommy John surgery, and has had middling results when on the hill.

The Twins also have some young and affordable pitching that would surely interest the Padres. Pitchers like Zebby Matthews and David Festa debuted in 2024 without much success but both were notable prospects last year and could still have plenty of success ahead of them. The fact that each still has six years of cheap control available would be great for the Padres, but the Twins would have to think about whether that’s a fair price for just one year of a pitcher like Cease. The Twins also have arms like Marco Raya, Travis Adams and C.J. Culpepper in their depth mix.

As recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, the Padres might look to last winter’s Burnes trade as a decent comparable for Cease. The Brewers flipped one year of Burnes for two notable prospects in DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Both were top 100-type prospects that had cracked the majors but hadn’t been established yet.

That is perhaps the kind of return that could work for the Padres. Subtracting Cease for pitchers like Matthews/Festa would lower their rotation certainty but give them more options at cheaper prices. The Twins may not be keen on such an arrangement, however, as the report from The Athletic indicates that they “would prefer to provide a value-laden package to replenish the Padres’ depth as opposed to the higher-upside talent Preller likes to hunt.”

Though Preller has been exceptionally quiet this winter, it’s possible that it’s time for him to pounce. The Padres were one of the finalists for Roki Sasaki and he would have been a massive help for their current predicament. As a plug-and-play ace who will be making the minimum salary this year, he would have been a great fit for the club both in terms of roster construction and their financial situation.

Perhaps Preller was waiting for clarity on that massive decision from Sasaki. Now that the young righty has officially signed with the Dodgers, Preller has to pivot to other options. Given his constraints, a Cease trade might have to be on his to-do list. If so, the Twins are surely not the only club interested, so Preller should be fielding plenty of calls.

Twins, Padres Have Discussed Christian Vazquez Trade

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The Padres and Twins have had discussions about a potential trade that would send veteran catcher Christian Vázquez to San Diego, report Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is imminent. Indeed, Hayes suggests that conversations have “slowed” recently, though that doesn’t mean that the sides won’t continue talks in the coming days.

Vázquez is both a logical trade candidate for Minnesota and an obvious fit for San Diego. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said last week that the team’s trade talks had started to pick up steam. While Falvey didn’t identify specific players under discussion, Vázquez is arguably the most obvious candidate. He’s entering the final season of a three-year free agent deal. He has split time with Ryan Jeffers over his two years in the Twin Cities.

Over the past two seasons, Jeffers carries a .246/.328/.456 batting line in exactly 800 trips to the plate. Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 through 670 plate appearances. Manager Rocco Baldelli nevertheless stuck to the even divide in playing time last year. Each player made 81 starts. Jeffers caught 720 1/3 innings, while Vázquez logged 719 frames.

Jeffers clearly brings a much higher offensive ceiling. Vázquez is the superior defender. While Jeffers receives subpar grades for his receiving skills, Vázquez has long been a quality pitch framer. He was also a superior blocker. Last year, Vázquez was charged with just one passed ball and was behind the plate for 19 wild pitches. Jeffers committed three passed balls and allowed 28 wild pitches.

Despite Vázquez’s defensive advantage, the Twins may prefer to give Jeffers an extra 15-20 starts to keep his bat in the lineup. That’s particularly true when considering the financials. Vázquez’s deal pays him $10MM annually. That’s a lot for a part-time catcher. Minnesota’s front office has been hamstrung by the budget for a second straight offseason. The Pohlad family ownership group has been loath to raise payroll as they explore a sale of the franchise. Minnesota has not made a single major league free agent signing this winter. Their biggest moves have been depth trades for Mickey Gasper and former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya.

The Padres are in a remarkably similar spot. While ownership isn’t selling the franchise, there’s litigation amongst the Seidler family for control. San Diego has slashed payroll for two straight years themselves. They also have not signed any major league free agents or made any trades of consequence.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has his work cut out for him in addressing multiple areas of need with a limited budget. Catcher is probably the biggest issue on the position player side. San Diego hoped that Luis Campusano would run with the job in 2024. Instead, he hit .227/.287/.361 while grading as one of the league’s worst defensive catchers.

Campusano ceded the starting job to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch. Higashioka landed with the Rangers on a two-year free agent deal, leaving Campusano as the default projected starter. Brett Sullivan is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. San Diego recently added Martín Maldonado on a minor league contract. He hit .119 in 48 games for the White Sox last season. Chicago released him in July.

The 34-year-old Vázquez would provide a significant defensive upgrade over Campusano. While he hasn’t produced at the plate in Minnesota, he was a league average hitter (.274/.315/.399) between the Red Sox and Astros back in 2022. There’s more hope for getting something offensively from Vázquez than there would be if they select Maldonado’s contract.

San Diego would not take on Vázquez’s entire salary. He’s comparable to Jacob Stallings ($2.5MM) and Austin Hedges ($4MM), each of whom signed cheap one-year deals as free agents this offseason. The Padres could push for Minnesota to eat at least half the money to facilitate a trade. Hayes and Lin write that the Twins are reluctant to pay down too much of the deal. Their primary motivation of trading Vázquez would be salary relief. They’d also perhaps need to earmark a couple million dollars for a veteran to back up Jeffers (e.g. Elias Díaz, Yasmani Grandal). The other catchers on their 40-man roster — Cartaya and Jair Camargo — have five combined games of MLB experience.

Minnesota is looking for a first baseman who can replace Carlos Santana. They’re seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder as well. Beyond Vázquez, Chris Paddack ($7.5MM) stands as their clearest trade candidate to create a bit of payroll room. To be clear, there’s no suggestion that the Padres have interest in reacquiring Paddack. Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Ty France are among the unsigned first basemen. Mark Canha, Austin Hays and Randal Grichuk are a few righty-swinging outfielders still on the open market.

In addition to their catching pursuit, San Diego needs back-end rotation help and a replacement for Jurickson Profar in left field. They’re unlikely to achieve all of that without shedding salary in a trade of their own. Dylan Cease is their biggest trade chip. He’ll make $13.75MM in his final year of arbitration. Dealing him would be a huge hit to an already thin rotation, but they’d net MLB help in return while creating a decent chunk of short-term payroll space.

The Athletic reports that the Twins are among a number of teams that have shown interest in Cease. Vázquez obviously would not be a key piece in a trade of that magnitude, though he could be included as an ancillary part of a much larger package. As a comparison, Higashioka was probably viewed as the fifth-most valuable player in San Diego’s return from the Yankees for Juan Soto at the time of that trade.

Twins Sign Anthony Misiewicz To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have signed left-hander Anthony Misiewicz to a minor league contract, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports.  Misiewicz will receive an invitation to Minnesota’s Major League spring camp.

A veteran of each of the last five MLB seasons, Misiewicz just barely extended that streak this past year when he appeared in a single game (tossing one relief inning) for the Yankees on June 19.  He was soon sent back to Triple-A after that cup of coffee in the Show, and was ultimately designated for assignment and outrighted off New York’s 40-man roster in September.

Over what was essentially a full season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Misiewicz posted a 3.90 ERA with eight homers allowed over 55 1/3 relief innings.  That trouble with the long ball obscured some pretty strong peripherals like a 29% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate.  Misiewicz had a wide gap in his splits at Triple-A, as he dominated left-handed batters while struggling badly against righty swingers.

Misiewicz has a 4.67 ERA over 115 2/3 career innings in the majors, with most of that work coming with the Mariners from 2020-22.  He’ll provide the Twins with at least another experienced arm to evaluate in camp, and his chances of making the roster could be helped by Minnesota’s lack of left-handed depth.  Kody Funderburk and minor league starter Brent Headrick are currently the only left-handed pitchers on the Twins’ 40-man roster.

Twins’ Trade Conversations Have Picked Up In Recent Weeks

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The Twins have been one of the quietest teams in Major League Baseball this winter, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic that trade conversations have picked up over the past couple weeks. Naturally, Falvey didn’t delve into specifics but expressed optimism that there’s been some “traction” in recent talks as some teams have begun to focus more on the trade market. “…I can tell you we’ve had more active conversations in the last couple of weeks than we’ve had prior,” said Falvey.

Minnesota has yet to sign a major league free agent this winter, and their only 40-man roster additions have come via the Rule 5 Draft (Phillies righty Eiberson Castellano) and via minor trades to acquire utilityman/catcher Mickey Gasper from Boston and former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya from Los Angeles. (The Dodgers had designated Cartaya for assignment prior to the trade.)

Ownership mandated a payroll cut of nearly $30MM for the Twins last offseason due to uncertainty stemming from the bankruptcy proceedings of Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports. The Twins and DSG/Bally reached a one-year agreement at a reduced rate for 2024 broadcasts. Minnesota has now turned broadcast rights over to the league, securing some certainty for the upcoming season but still checking in at a reduced rate relative to their former Bally’s deal.

Despite the lesser television revenue, however, the Twins are not under any mandate to further reduce payroll from their currently projected mark, Hayes reports. For Minnesota fans, that’s good news to an extent, though Hayes adds that there’s minimal room for any additions. If the Twins have eyes on any decisive upgrades, they’d likely need to trim payroll to make that happen.

Christian Vazquez (owed $10MM in the final season of his contract) and Chris Paddack (owed $7.5MM in the final season of his own deal) have been the most speculated-upon targets, as the Twins have other options behind the plate and in the rotation. Ryan Jeffers is the clear starter at catcher, while the rotation includes Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson — with prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews among the options in the fifth spot, should Paddack be moved.

Hayes reports that utilityman Willi Castro ($6.4MM, free agent at season’s end) has been “asked about often” this winter as well. Presumably, given the switch-hitting Castro’s versatility, productivity and popularity with the rest of the roster, the Twins would prefer to hold onto him. Falvey & Co. surely wouldn’t mind dumping the final $4MM owed to twice-outrighted pitcher Randy Dobnak on another club, though they’d likely need to send a low-level prospect to another club to facilitate such a swap. The Twins have at least heard other teams out as they’ve approached about the likes of Lopez and Carlos Correa, but Falvey has also made clear that despite payroll constraints the Twins are in win-now mode, calling Lopez, Correa and Byron Buxton “key” players to the team’s 2025 hopes in the same breath. (Correa and Buxton have full no-trade protection anyhow.)

Vazquez’s contract is clearly underwater, but given the $4MM guarantee secured by a comparable glove-first backstop in each of the past two winters (Austin Hedges), the Twins may not have to eat his entire salary to facilitate a trade. Paddack’s $7.5MM guarantee seems reasonable, if not something of a discount, in the current climate for free agent starters. Castro has clear surplus value after hitting .251/.334/.395 (108 wRC+) with 21 homers and 47 steals in 1044 plate appearances and providing decent or better glovework at nearly every position on the diamond over the past two seasons.

The Twins have spent the offseason looking for help at first base, and they’ve been in the market for a right-handed-hitting outfielder as well. Their recent stockpiling of catching depth has led to plenty of speculation about finding a potential deal to move a portion of Vazquez’s contract, though there’s still no indication anything is close on that front.

Most of the first base market has been picked over. Pete Alonso is surely out of Minnesota’s price range, barring a wild about-face from ownership, but Justin Turner remains unsigned and there are rebound candidates to consider (e.g. Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, Connor Joe). Affordable corner outfield options who bat from the right side include Mark Canha (who can also play first), Randal Grichuk, Austin Hays, Tommy Pham and Ramon Laureano.

Twins fans will want to check out Hayes’ piece in full, as it also includes several updates on the ongoing sale process. That comes just one day after La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported that there have been “double digit” inquiries from potential buyers/groups, Hayes writes that billionaire Justin Ishbia, who co-owns the NBA’s Phoenix Suns with his brother Mat, is “very, very serious” in his desire to buy the team and “could be aggressive” in his reported bid. The Ishbia brothers are the only known suitor to date, though Neal reported yesterday that some notable former Twins players — Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter among them — could each have interest in pitching a new ownership group on securing a 1-2% stake in the club.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/25

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January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. The majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but many of the top signees ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.

This year’s international market has been thrown into disarray, to an extent, by the emergence of star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. While Sasaki is an established professional in every sense of the word over in Japan, his age (23) and the fact that he has fewer than six seasons of pro ball in another country under his belt make him an “amateur” under the purview of Major League Baseball’s international free agency structure.

As such, we’ve seen both the Dodgers and Padres both hold off on finalizing longstanding agreements with other teams and, in some cases, let players with whom they’ve had standing verbal agreements instead pursue other opportunities. The Dodgers, for instance, saw Dominican shortstop Darell Morel instead agree to a $1.8MM bonus with the Pirates. That worked out for Morel, who’d agreed to sign for roughly half that amount with Los Angeles (likely more than a year prior). Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Venzuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño also walked away from his Dodgers deal ($400K) to sign for a $570K bonus with the White Sox. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reported yesterday that Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano, another Dodgers commit, will instead sign with the Twins now. He’ll receive roughly $1MM from Minnesota, per Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

Those defections will sting for the Dodgers if they’re unable to ultimately sway Sasaki to sign in Los Angeles, though there will be other opportunities to spend those dollars down the road. Unexpected amateur players can pop up well after a signing period has commenced, and Los Angeles would also have the ability to trade some any unused international money. The Dodgers have long been regarded as the Sasaki favorite — so much so that agent Joel Wolfe had to publicly deny speculation regarding a predetermined agreement between the two sides — and the recent run of prospects bolting from their international class does little to quell that perception. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists for Sasaki, whose posting window closes on Jan. 23.

Turning back to the rest of the class, Badler has a team-by-team breakdown of the most prominent signings over at Baseball America, as well as scouting reports and (in some cases) projected bonuses for as many as 100 players. Longenhagen runs through his own list of 50 international prospects with their expected team and signing bonus over at FanGraphs, as well as a detailed look at some of intricacies and idiosyncrasies of Sasaki’s unique free agent saga. Romero runs through 35 high-profile international talents and their expected team/signing bonus at his site as well. At MLB.com, Jesse Sanchez and Jesse Borek have their own ranking of the top 50 in the class, with scouting reports on each. Those interested in the finer details of this year’s collection of international amateurs are highly encouraged to check out those resources in full. Badler, Longenhagen, Romero, Sanchez and many others around the baseball world dedicate enormous portions of their time and efforts to covering this topic to the fullest.

Note: This is not a comprehensive list of all international signings, nor is it intended to be. If your favorite team is not listed here, it’s not because they’ve sat out the IFA market. There are a few dozen players who’ll sign $1MM+ bonuses and a few hundred who’ll ink six-figure bonuses. Those interested in a comprehensive rundown of the international class can check out links to the excellent work from Badler, Romero, Sanchez and Longenhagen provided above. We’ll run down some of the top signing bonuses here, focusing on those that check in at $2.5MM or more. These are ordered by reported signing bonus, and this list will be updated multiple times today:

  • Elian Peña, SS, Mets: The Mets paid a reported $5MM bonus to Pena, per Badler, which represents a whopping 80% of their $6.261MM bonus pool. Currently listed at 5’11” and 170 pounds, Pena is a lefty-swinging shortstop who’s expected to move down the defensive spectrum but have more than enough bat to profile at third base or second base if all pans out. Badler and Romero both liken his power potential to that of Rafael Devers, praising his pitch recognition, plate discipline and willingness to draw walks. He turned 17 in October.
  • Andrew Salas, SS/OF Marlins: The younger brother of Twins infield prospect Jose Salas (originally signed by Miami but traded to Minnesota alongside Pablo Lopez) and current Padres top prospect Ethan Salas, Andrew will turn 17 in March. He’s a switch-hitter who’s touted for his patient approach, good swing decisions and balance on both sides of the plate. MLB.com lauds him as a potential plus defender both at shortstop and in center field. Salas was born in Florida but moved to Venezuela, his family’s native country, and is already bilingual as a result. The Marlins are committing a $3.6MM bonus to the youngest of the three Salas brothers, per Romero.
  • Cris Rodriguez, OF, Tigers: Rodriguez receives a $3.2MM bonus from Detroit, per Badler. Already 6’4″ and 200 pounds with his 17th birthday still two weeks away, Rodriguez stands out for his bat speed and raw power. Badler calls him a potential 30-homer slugger who’ll probably settle into a corner but for the time being runs well enough to have a chance in center. MLB.com’s report calls Rodriguez a “near carbon copy” of Eloy Jimenez at this same age, even down to hailing from the same city in the Dominican Republic and possessing a similarly aggressive approach. The Tigers will hope Rodriguez can do a better job of avoiding injuries, but Rodriguez possesses thunderous power — more so than any other player in this class.
  • Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez, SS, Giants: Badler and Romero both note that some scouts have graded De Jesus as the top prospect overall in this year’s class (Sasaki excluded). MLB.com indeed ranks him as the top non-Sasaki talent in the class. Listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, the 17-year-old switch-hitter draws 70 grades for his speed (on the 20-80 scale) and also plus bat speed and the defensive tools required to convince scouts he can stick at shortstop. He’s landing a $3MM bonus from San Francisco, Badler reports.
  • Diego Tornes, OF, Braves: Tornes won’t turn 17 until July. He’s younger than many of the players in this year’s class but still received a $2.5MM bonus (per Badler) thanks to a projectable 6’4″, 200-pound frame that scouts think is a portent for plus power. He’s a switch-hitter who’s praised for plus bat speed and physicality that are well beyond some of his older peers on this year’s class. MLB.com feels he’ll eventually settle into an outfield corner, where he has an above-average arm and — at least at present — above-average speed.
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