Draft Chatter: Lewis, McKay, College Arms, Mock Drafts, A’s
With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.
For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.
A bit more on tonight’s draft…
- Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
- As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
- The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.
Minor MLB Transactions: 6/12/17
Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…
- The Twins have signed right-hander Tim Melville to a minor league deal and assigned him to their Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, according to Nate Rowan, the PR director of their Rochester affiliate (Twitter link). The 27-year-old Melville was a fourth-round pick by the Royals in 2008 and made his big league debut with the Reds last season, yielding 11 runs on 16 hits and nine walks in just nine innings of work. That unsightly cup of coffee aside, Melville has been enjoying a nice season with the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. Through 47 innings, he’s worked to a 3.45 ERA with a 48-to-18 K/BB ratio. Melville has a rather pedestrian 4.61 ERA in 160 career innings at Triple-A, but he’ll add some depth to a Twins organization that recently released Nick Tepesch and promoted Triple-A lefties Nik Turley and Adalberto Mejia to the Majors.
Poll: Who Will Be The No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?
Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft kicks off tonight at 7pm ET, and the Twins will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since selecting local catcher out of St. Paul’s Cretin-Derham Hall high school named Joe Mauer back in 2001. While some draft classes have a very clear top overall pick (e.g. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. There have been rumors circulating about who the Twins will select No. 1 overall tonight for months, now, and the top three names on the board, at the very least, seem to be clear….
- Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, Calif.): Greene has been the most talked-about player in the draft class for the past year. A two-way high school star that has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and generated awe with a fastball that has reached 102 mph, Greene sits atop the draft rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. However, while he has the highest upside in the class, there’s also never been a high school right-hander selected No. 1 overall in the draft, and the risks associated with a prep pitcher are greater than those associated with a college player or even a fellow high school pitcher. Most mock drafts from experts have had the Twins passing on Greene, though he’s undoubtedly a tempting option for the new-look Minnesota front office.
- Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt: Wright ranks first on Fangraphs’ list of draft prospects, just edging out Greene for that top spot. Over the past month, he’s been the most oft-connected name to the Twins, with most draft experts and scouting reports touting him as the best combination of ceiling and certainty. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and can reach 97 mph, Wright also has solid control and three secondary offerings that scouting reports peg as average to above-average. He may not have generated as much fanfare and intrigue as the two-way stars that join him atop the draft class, but Wright is very much in the mix to go first overall.
- Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville: Scouting reports on McKay are split on whether his best long-term fit is on the mound or as a position player, but there’s a general belief that he could excel either way. Whether a team prefers McKay as a pitcher or a hitter, he seems like a virtual lock to go in the top five of the draft. MLB.com’s report gives him a future 60-grade rating in either role, while ESPN’s Keith Law notes that he showed a bit of fatigue on the mound late in the season. Dedicating himself fully to one discipline under a professional coaching/player development staff could allow McKay to take his game to a new level in either direction. The Twins have been connected to McKay quite often, and while most mocks had Wright going No. 1 overall for the past month, McKay’s name has regained a bit of steam in the past few days.
Readers can check out more details on this year’s draft class by diving into the excellent work from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (free); Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (free); Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required/recommended); and John Manuel and his team over at Baseball America (subscription required and, once again, recommended).
But, if you already have an opinion on the matter formed, let’s get right to the poll (link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Who will the Twins take with the No. 1 overall pick?
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Brendan McKay 33% (2,088)
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Kyle Wright 32% (2,033)
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Hunter Greene 28% (1,740)
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Other (Specify in comments) 7% (439)
Total votes: 6,300
Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves
A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.
- The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
- Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
- It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).
Twins Designate Drew Rucinski
The Twins have announced that they’ve designated righty Drew Rucinski for release or assignment. The move clears space on the club’s 40-man roster for lefty Nik Turley, who will start today against the Giants, as expected. The Twins also optioned lefty Randy Rosario to Double-A Chattanooga.
[Related: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart]
The Twins signed the 28-year-old Rucinski to a minor-league deal last offseason, and he’s bounced back and forth between Triple-A Rochester and the Majors since the club selected his contract last month. Overall, he’s allowed five runs in 4 1/3 big-league innings with the Twins, but he’s pitched very well for Rochester, with a 2.31 ERA, 9.6 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 in 23 1/3 frames, most of them spent in relief. He had previously pitched in the Indians, Angels and Cubs organizations.
The 27-year-old Turley has spent parts of ten years in the minors since the Yankees selected him in the fifth round of the 2008 draft. He had limited success in the farm systems of the Yankees, Giants and Red Sox but has thrived since a brief stint in independent ball last season — he posted a ridiculous 0.37 ERA, 16.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 24 1/3 innings thus far this year in Chattanooga and has also pitched well in Rochester. The journeyman will be making his big-league debut today.
Minor MLB Transactions: 6/10/17
Saturday’s minor moves:
- Utilityman T.J. Rivera has lost his spot on the Mets’ roster, as the team optioned him (and right-hander Tyler Pill) to Triple-A on Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post was among those to report (Twitter link). The Mets sent Rivera and Pill down to make room for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and righty Seth Lugo, both of whom are back from the disabled list. Rivera ranks among the Mets’ top nine in plate appearances this year, having taken 114 and batted a passable .255/.310/.402. He swatted his second home run of the season Saturday, but it wasn’t enough to stave off a demotion.
- The Padres have outrighted righty Tyrell Jenkins to make room for reliever Carter Capps, whom they reinstated from the 60-day disabled list and optioned to Triple-A El Paso, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. A former big-time prospect with the Cardinals, Jenkins joined the Padres off waivers from the Reds over the winter and has struggled with San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate, notching a 6.71 ERA, 6.42 K/9 and a 5.98 BB/9 over 61 2/3 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Capps, meanwhile, continues to work his way back from the Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Marlin in 2016.
- The Twins have selected the contract of left-hander Nik Turley from Triple-A and optioned fellow southpaw Randy Rosario, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (on Twitter). Minnesota will need to dump someone from its 40-man roster to make room for the addition of Turley, who has excelled at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season. The 27-year-old will make his major league debut Sunday with a start in San Francisco, with which he was a farmhand in 2015.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Pirates, Orioles, Twins, Mariners
At 27-35, the Pirates on track to miss the playoffs for the second straight year. But the club’s recent woes aren’t threatening the job security of either GM Neal Huntington or manager Clint Hurdle, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, who reports that the two are good bets to sign contract extensions before the season ends. Huntington has been at the helm since 2007, Hurdle dating back to 2011, and the team has gone to the playoffs three times during their six-plus-year partnership. The Pirates are now headed for their fourth sub-.500 season under the Huntington-Hurdle tandem, though, and look as if they’ll sell at the deadline, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth wrote earlier Saturday.
More from Rosenthal:
- The Orioles have experienced a fair amount of success since 2012, when they hired GM Dan Duquette to team with manager Buck Showalter. Despite that, Duquette and Showalter have an “unsteady” relationship, according to Rosenthal. Therefore, with their contracts set to expire after next season, one or both might end up on the outs in the near future. Showalter, who will be 62 after next season, could take over Duquette’s current job, per Rosenthal.
- If the 32-26 Twins remain in contention around the deadline, not only will they have a hard time parting with trade candidates such as Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier, but they could end up as buyers, suggests Rosenthal. In that situation, the Twins would likely target cheap starting help to aid a rotation that’s missing Phil Hughes and Hector Santiago, both of whom are on the disabled list. Hughes and Santiago have struggled even when healthy this year for Minnesota, whose rotation entered Saturday a solid 12th in the majors in ERA but a troubling 26th in FIP.
- The Mariners will have to address long-term needs in their rotation either at the deadline or during the offseason, notes Rosenthal. Hisashi Iwakuma, Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly are only under control for another two years at the most (the first two have club options for 2018), leaving Seattle with James Paxton, Felix Hernandez and Ariel Miranda as its only current prominent starters under contract through 2019.
Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, McKay, Ramos, Canning, Heimlich
Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis’ latest for MLB.com contains plenty of new details on next week’s amateur draft. Here’s the latest.
- The Twins now seem increasingly likely to take two-way Louisville player Brendan McKay and develop him as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, Callis writes. The Twins had previously been connected to Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright, although they had California high school pitcher Hunter Greene in for a workout yesterday. The Reds will take Greene, unless the Twins pick him, in which case they’ll take McKay as a pitcher.
- Heliot Ramos, a high school outfielder from Puerto Rico, could go somewhere in the middle of the first round, perhaps to the Astros, Giants or Orioles.
- UCLA righty Griffin Canning‘s stock appears to be falling over issues with his MRI, Mayo writes. Canning had been projected to go in the middle of the first round, but his MRI has some teams already deciding to pass on him. It’s not clear right now what those issues are. It’s perhaps worth noting that Canning’s potential arm troubles don’t seem to have hurt him this year — he has a 2.34 ERA and 140 whiffs over 119 innings this season.
- A report late this week from Danny Moran and Brad Schmidt of the Oregonian should be disturbing news, to say the least, for teams interested in selecting Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich. As a teenager, Heimlich reportedly pleaded guilty to molesting a 6-year-old family member. He reportedly is thus a registered sex offender. He was previously seen as a possible second- or third-rounder, but that seems unlikely after the emergence of this news. “You absolutely can’t draft him,” a scouting official with an NL team told Callis.
Quick Hits: Baker, Reed, Bruce, Price, July 2
It was on this day in 1908 that one of baseball’s great slang terms was coined. In a story by the New York Globe’s Peter Morris about an 8-2 Giants win over the Pirates, Morris wrote “It isn’t often that [umpire] Hank O’Day is caught napping‚ but a young player just getting his cup of coffee in the league put one over on Hank and [umpire Bill Klem] yesterday.” This was reportedly the first time that “cup of coffee” was used to describe a short stint in the big leagues, and it has been part of the game’s vernacular ever since.
Some news as we head into the weekend…
- Dusty Baker’s desire for a contract extension is “not going [to] be an issue” for the Nationals, GM Mike Rizzo told the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo and other reporters. “We’re not going to let it be an issue. Dusty’s a true professional. He’s been through this, the rigors of the regular season, a million times. I’ve been through it a million times. It’s suffice to say there’s great communication, great respect between the front office and the manager’s office.” Baker has been open about wanting to remain with the Nats beyond the end of his current contract, which expires at season’s end, and Rizzo has himself recommended to ownership that Baker be extended, though there hasn’t appeared to be any movement towards a new deal.
- Cody Reed has been pitching well since his demotion to Triple-A, but Reds manager Bryan Price tells the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan and other reporters that the club has no plans to bring Reed back up to the Show in the near future. Reed, ranked by Baseball America as the #2 prospect in the Reds’ farm system, has a 7.15 ERA over 61 2/3 innings in the big leagues — a 10-start stint in 2016 and seven outings (six relief appearances, one start) to begin this year. “I don’t want to take another step back with this kid. He’s doing too well in Triple-A to feel like we’ve rushed him back and if he has a setback up here we feel like we’re back to square one,” Price said.
- Jay Bruce has gone from offseason trade chip to a hugely valuable piece for the Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. There was some question as to whether the Mets would exercise their $13MM club option on Bruce last winter given his struggles after joining the team in a deadline trade, and the Mets also shopped Bruce after they re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. Bruce has rebounded to hit .250/.322/.514 with 15 homers in 242 PA, helping stabilize an outfield that lost Cespedes to the DL and Curtis Granderson to an ugly early-season slump.
- David Price‘s issues with the Boston media have added a new wrinkle to his contract’s opt-out clause after the 2018 season, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. Price may be tired of pitching in Boston, yet he realistically isn’t going to opt out of the four years and $127MM remaining on his deal unless he feels he can find as much or more money in free agency at age 33. So Price now has perhaps even more incentive to pitch well for the Red Sox, though in this situation’s odd catch-22, better performance would likely alleviate the media pressure. With over a season and a half to go before Price has to face his opt-out decision, it’s probably too early to speculate about his current thought process, especially when so many other factors (Price’s health, the team’s performance, etc.) are also in the mix.
- Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks ahead to the next international signing period that opens on July 2, profiling five highly-touted young players from the Dominican Republic who are already rumored to be signing with the Mets, Pirates, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.
Draft Notes: Twins, Greene, McKay, Rankings, Perez
As a reminder of the draft’s hit-or-miss nature, MLBPipeline.com’s Jim Callis looks back at the 2007 draft and guesses how teams would pick with a decade of hindsight. Despite the presence of several superstars in this year’s class, only six of the 2007 first-rounders also appear in Callis’ new mock first round. It makes for a fun series of “what-if” scenarios given all of the big names in play…or maybe not that fun, if your favorite team made an ill-fated pick ten years ago.
Here’s the latest on news about this year’s amateur draft, which takes place on Monday…
- The Twins will have high schooler Hunter Greene in for a workout on Friday, MLBPipeline.com’s Jonathan Mayo reports. Recent reports have linked Minnesota to Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright with the first overall pick and the Twins could simply be doing their due diligence on another highly-touted youngster. That said, as Mayo writes, the timing of Greene’s visit is “not exactly the kind of thing a team does so close to the Draft for a player they’re not considering.”
- From that same item, Jim Callis looks at how teams could use Brendan McKay, who is drawing attention both as a first baseman and as a left-handed pitcher. The Twins, Reds, and Padres (who own the top three picks) are all likely-to-certain to use him as a pitcher, while the Rays (fourth overall) and Braves (fifth) would probably make McKay a full-time position player. Callis, for the record, doesn’t believe McKay would fall past Tampa on the draft board. McKay is so intriguing as a two-way player that Callis believes his future team could use him as a first baseman/DH on days he isn’t pitching, in order to gain more information about his ideal landing spot in the big leagues.
- Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen breaks down the first round of picks in a mock draft, based on such criteria as “rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc.” Longenhagen has Wright to the Twins with the first pick, with McKay also a strong possibility; Greene and prep southpaw MacKenzie Gore are less likely candidates. Greene is projected to go second to Cincinnati, Gore to San Diego, McKay to Tampa and shortstop Royce Lewis to Atlanta, though quite a bit seems to be up in the air with just five days away from the draft.
- For an in-depth look at the talent available, Baseball America has a ranking of the top 500 draft prospects, with individual scouting reports available for BA subscribers. BA has Greene, Wright, McKay, Gore and Lewis as the top five (which, of course, doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be taken in that order on Monday).
- Joe Perez, a high school right-hander out of Florida, will undergo Tommy John surgery, Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports. Despite this injury setback and the fact that Perez has committed to the University Of Miami, Collazo feels teams will still be interested in the righty, who also has drawn interest as a first baseman. Perez is rated 99th on BA’s list and 92nd on MLB Pipeline’s top 200 rankings.