MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

Effective Late-Career Arms

• Chris Bassitt (37)

Bassitt has been a steady, durable mid-rotation arm for the past six seasons. That includes a 3.89 ERA in 100 appearances over his three-year deal with the Blue Jays. He allowed just under four earned runs per nine across 170 1/3 innings during the regular season. Bassitt missed the Division Series with lower back tightness but returned for the ALCS roster. He tossed 2 2/3 perfect frames with three strikeouts in a setup capacity. He’ll be limited to a two-year deal at age 37 but could secure more than $15MM annually. The Blue Jays cannot make him a qualifying offer, as he received one from the Mets after the 2022 season.

• Merrill Kelly (37)

Kelly is probably in a similar contractual range as Bassitt, though he could command a few million dollars more on an annual basis. He’s a rock solid #3 starter coming off a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Kelly posted solid strikeout (22.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates despite sitting around 92 MPH with his fastball. He has rebounded brilliantly from 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. A shoulder strain cost him a few months last season, but he stayed healthy this year and has reached 30+ starts in three of the past four seasons. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for the qualifying offer.

• Max Scherzer (41)

Scherzer’s one-year, $15.5MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays has had mixed results. A recurring nerve injury in his right thumb sent him to the injured list after one start. Scherzer was out until late June. He returned to post a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts. The strikeout and walk profile remains solid, but he gave up more than two home runs per nine innings. Scherzer was a healthy scratch in the ALDS but returned to the roster for the Championship Series. He went 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a Game 4 start to pick up the win and even the ALCS at two games apiece. One could argue that start alone justified the signing even if Scherzer’s regular season was surely frustrating for the future Hall of Famer and the Blue Jays alike. He’ll get another one-year deal but might land in the $10-12MM range this time.

• Justin Verlander (43)

Verlander signed a one-year, $15MM with the Giants last winter. He was coming off a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts that had gotten him left off Houston’s playoff roster. Verlander’s tenure in San Francisco started slowly, as he posted a 4.70 ERA through the All-Star Break. He turned in a 2.99 mark with a 21.5% strikeout rate in the second half. His fastball still lands around 94 MPH on average as he enters his age-43 season. Verlander isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he’s a capable mid-rotation performer whose wealth of experience is surely welcome for younger pitching staffs. He’ll sign another one-year deal that could approach $20MM.

Contractual Options

• Jack Flaherty (30)

Flaherty is weighing a $20MM player option on his deal with the Tigers. He’s coming off a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. It’s the second time in the past three years that Flaherty allowed nearly five earned runs per nine innings. He has had issues keeping the ball in the yard in consecutive seasons. While that might point towards him opting in, there’s a good chance he tests the market anyway based on his youth and swing-and-miss potential.

The righty punched out 27.6% of opponents behind a strong 11.3% swinging strike rate. He’d fanned nearly 30% of batters faced last season. He’s 13th in MLB with 382 strikeouts over the past two seasons. Flaherty has also avoided the injured list in three straight years despite reports that the Yankees pulled out of a 2024 deadline deal after flagging something in his medicals. The combination of durability and swing-and-miss upside might get him a three- or four-year contract. If Flaherty opts out, the Tigers would need to decide whether to issue a qualifying offer.

• Shota Imanaga (32)

The Cubs have a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga’s services. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this year. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

• John Means (33)

Cleveland signed Means to a one-year deal with a $6MM club option that could climb to $7.5MM based on next year’s innings totals. He was coming off his second UCL surgery in three years and spent all of this season rehabbing.

• Freddy Peralta (30)

Peralta will not be a free agent. The Brewers are going to exercise an $8MM option. They’ll entertain trade possibilities but could hold their ace for his final season of club control after advancing to the NLCS.

• Colin Rea (35)

The Cubs hold a $6MM option on Rea that comes with a $750K buyout. That’s a reasonable price for a reliable swingman who turned in a 3.95 ERA over 159 1/3 innings this past season. If the Cubs surprisingly cut Rea loose, he should be able to find a similar contract on the open market.

• Jose Urquidy (31)

The Tigers guaranteed Urquidy $1MM as he completed rehab from Tommy John surgery. He made two late-season relief appearances. They can bring him back on a $4MM option that could climb to $7MM based on escalators.

Middle/Back of the Rotation

• Adrian Houser (33)

Houser was on a minor league deal with the Rangers at the beginning of this year. He opted out and signed a big league deal with the White Sox in late May. Houser went on an excellent two-month run in Chicago, turning in a 2.10 ERA through 68 2/3 innings. That was enough to make him a legitimate deadline trade chip, as they sent him to the Rays for a three-player return headlined by former top prospect Curtis Mead. The magic wore off after the deal, as Houser struggled to a 4.79 ERA in 56 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay.

Middling finish aside, the righty is in much better position than he was at this time last winter. Houser is a lock for a big league deal and could get two years to pitch in a swing role. He doesn’t miss many bats but gets a lot of ground-balls behind a sinker that sits north of 95 MPH on average.

• Zack Littell (30)

Littell has gone from nondescript middle reliever to viable fourth starter since the Rays built him up halfway through the 2023 season. He tied for 11th in MLB with 186 2/3 innings this year and has managed consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. He pounds the strike zone but has fringe stuff that leads to middling strikeout rates and a lot of home runs. Only Jake Irvin gave up more home runs than Littell’s 36 this year.

The Reds nevertheless valued Littell’s durability and strike-throwing enough to give up a legitimate pitching prospect (Adam Serwinowski) to acquire him at the deadline. Littell just turned 30 and should be able to pull a multi-year deal. There’s a chance he gets a three-year contract from a team that wants to lock in some stability at the back of the staff.

• Tyler Mahle (31)

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts for the Rangers this year. However, he only struck out 19.1% of opponents while working with less impressive stuff than he showed early in his career with the Reds. Mahle averages 92 MPH after sitting 93-94 a few years ago. The drop-off is presumably tied to his history of arm injuries, which continued this year.

Mahle suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. Shoulder issues had prematurely ended his season in both 2022 and ’24, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. Mahle technically finished this season healthy for the first time in four years, as he was able to return to make two starts in September. He has only made 51 appearances over the past four years and might be limited to one-year deals as a result.

• Nick Martinez (35)

Martinez was last offseason’s most surprising qualifying offer recipient. Not coincidentally, he was the only player to accept the QO and play out the season on a $21.05MM salary. The veteran swingman spent most of the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, working to a 4.45 ERA across 165 2/3 innings. His 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since he returned to MLB four years ago. Martinez doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but he has plus control and reliably stays off barrels.

The lack of swing-and-miss and Martinez’s age could cap him at one year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds another two-year contract. Teams have valued his willingness to bounce between the rotation and bullpen at any point within the season. Martinez has also been ultra durable, avoiding the injured list entirely since his MLB comeback in 2022.

NPB/KBO fliers

• Foster Griffin (30)

Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower body. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.

• Cody Ponce (32)

Ponce is pitching with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles this year. It’s possible he explores MLB opportunities once the offseason begins. Ponce posted a near-6.00 ERA over 20 big league appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. He spent the next three seasons pitching to mediocre results in Japan before signing in Korea. Ponce had a phenomenal KBO season, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 36% of opponents. It’s an even better season than Erick Fedde had when he won the KBO MVP award in 2023.

Fedde parlayed that into a two-year, $15MM contract with the White Sox. Ponce is a year older but is a former second-round pick whose stuff has ticked up in Korea. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke credited Ponce with a mid-90s fastball to headline a four-pitch mix. It’s not out of the question that he gets a multi-year deal that approaches or exceeds the Fedde contract.

• Kona Takahashi (29)*

The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahashi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.

Reclamation/Swing Types

• Walker Buehler (31)

The Red Sox signed Buehler to a $21.05MM free agent deal last offseason. They ignored his terrible regular season results and placed a lot of emphasis on his two good outings in the World Series. That predictably didn’t work out, and they ended up releasing him by the end of August. Buehler managed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball after signing with the Phillies for the season’s final couple weeks, though that came with an 8:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the season with an ERA just under 5.00 with poor strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Buehler still has a 94 MPH fastball and a track record that should get him a big league deal at a much lower salary than he made this past season. Some teams could be intrigued to see if he can find a new gear in the bullpen, but Buehler may prefer to sign with a club that’ll offer a rotation opportunity.

• Griffin Canning (30)

Canning was one of the Mets’ more reliable starters early in the season, turning in a 3.77 ERA behind a 51% ground-ball rate over 16 starts. Unfortunately, he ruptured his right Achilles against the Braves at the end of June. The Mets never released a specific timeline beyond the obvious news that he was headed for season-ending surgery. It seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, which would be nine months removed from the injury. Canning could try for a cheap, slightly backloaded two-year deal.

• Nestor Cortes (31)

Cortes, an All-Star with the Yankees in 2022, has battled forearm issues for the past two seasons. He only made eight starts (with rough results) between the Brewers and Padres this year. Cortes finished the season on the injured list and underwent surgery that threatens his availability for 2026. He’s probably looking at a one-year guarantee with a ’27 club option so a signing team can gauge his recovery.

• Zach Eflin (32)

Eflin looked good over three starts before suffering a lat strain. He missed a month, then was rocked for a 7.16 ERA over nine starts before returning to the injured list with a back issue. He came back in late July, started twice more, and was shut back down. Eflin underwent season-ending back surgery in August. The Orioles announced that the recovery could take anywhere from four to eight months, so it’s not a given that he’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.

• Jon Gray (34)

Gray pitched six times this year, all in relief. He finished the season on the injured list and was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s unclear if he’ll require surgery that could cost him most of the ’26 campaign.

• Germán Márquez (31)

Márquez once overcame the challenges of pitching in Colorado to post upper mid-rotation numbers. That hasn’t been the case since he underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2023-24 seasons. The righty was bombed for a 6.70 ERA with a career-low 14% strikeout rate this year. He pitched just as poorly on the road as he did at Coors Field. Márquez still has a 95 MPH heater, so perhaps he’ll find a cheap big league deal from a team that thinks he’s salvageable with some repertoire changes.

• Dustin May (28)

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, May underwent a pair of significant elbow surgeries early in his career. He missed all of last year after requiring emergency esophageal surgery following a fluky but life-threatening throat rupture when a piece of lettuce got stuck in his throat. May thankfully was able to return to the mound this year and managed a career-high 132 1/3 innings across 25 appearances. He posted a near-5.00 ERA and ended the season on the shelf with elbow neuritis.

• Jordan Montgomery (33)

Montgomery gave up a 6.23 ERA over 25 appearances during his first season with the Diamondbacks. He was blasted publicly by owner Ken Kendrick last winter, then blew out in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery. Arizona dumped part of his contract on the Brewers at the deadline but he’ll probably look for a fresh start as a free agent. If he’s expected back in June or July, he could get a big league deal as a buy-low flier.

• Michael Soroka (28)

Soroka has flashed intriguing swing-and-miss stuff but has yet to show that he can hold up as a starter. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents over 16 starts with the Nationals. His velocity wilted as the deadline approached. The Cubs looked past that and acquired him, but Soroka exited his team debut with a shoulder strain. He returned in mid-September as a reliever and finished the season with a 4.52 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.

Depth/Innings Eaters

• Tyler Anderson (36)

Anderson wrapped up his three-year, $39MM free agent contract with the Angels by turning in a 4.56 ERA across 26 starts. He allowed 4.53 earned runs per nine over his three seasons in Anaheim. The southpaw struck out only 17.5% of opponents while averaging 89 MPH on his fastball. He missed the final month with an oblique strain and is likely looking at a one-year deal in the $3-5MM range.

• Aaron Civale (31)

In a season divided between three teams, Civale turned in a 4.85 ERA across 102 innings. He pitched poorly as a starter with both Milwaukee and the White Sox but found some late-season success out of the bullpen with the Cubs.

• Patrick Corbin (36)

Corbin took the ball 31 times and provided the Rangers 155 1/3 innings on a $1.1MM free agent deal. He managed decent results early in the season but a rough last two months left him with a 4.40 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate. It’s a better season than he had with the Nationals in 2024, so he could earn a boost to a $3-4MM salary if he comes back for his age-36 season.

• Kyle Hendricks (36)

Hendricks was noncommittal on whether he planned to continue pitching. The soft-tossing sinkerballer is coming off a 4.76 ERA over 164 2/3 innings for the Angels on a $2.5MM free agent deal.

• Michael Lorenzen (34)

Lorenzen started 26 of 27 appearances for the Royals this past season. He worked to a 4.64 ERA with a league average 21% strikeout rate and a solid 6.4% walk percentage. Lorenzen should fare the best of the pitchers in this tier because he sits around 94 MPH and missed bats at a near league average clip.

• Miles Mikolas (37)

Mikolas played out his final season in St. Louis as an innings-eating fifth starter. He posted a 4.84 ERA over 31 appearances. Like most of the pitchers in this tier, he’s a durable strike-thrower who doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of home runs.

• Chris Paddack (30)

Paddack was sitting on a 4.95 ERA in 21 starts when the Twins traded him to Detroit at the deadline. The buy-low move for the Tigers busted, as the righty was pushed out of the rotation after five starts. He finished the regular season in relief and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Paddack ended the year with a 5.35 ERA and a career-worst 16.7% strikeout rate in 158 innings.

• Martín Pérez (35)

Pérez managed a solid 3.54 ERA over 56 innings for the White Sox on a one-year deal. Injuries kept him from soaking up the innings that the Sox had wanted, though. Pérez missed a few months with a flexor issue and landed back on the shelf in September with a shoulder strain.

• Jose Quintana (37)

Quintana made 24 starts and worked to a 3.96 ERA over 131 2/3 innings for the Brewers. He’s a capable back-end starter but didn’t find much interest last offseason, when he was coming off a 3.75 mark in 31 starts for the Mets. Another one-year deal between $4-6MM seems likely.

• Tomoyuki Sugano (36)

Sugano’s first season in the U.S. was a disappointment. The former NPB star took the ball 30 times but gave up a 4.64 ERA while striking out fewer than 16% of opponents. He throws strikes but doesn’t have the stuff he did at his peak in Japan. Sugano isn’t going to approach last winter’s $15MM guarantee on a one-year deal this time around.

Potential Minor League Deals

• Paul Blackburn (32)
• Carlos Carrasco (39)
• Alex Cobb (38)
• Nabil Crismatt (31)
• Anthony DeSclafani (36)
• Erick Fedde (33)
• Austin Gomber (32)
• Kyle Hart (33) ^
• Andrew Heaney (35)
• Kenta Maeda (38) **
• Triston McKenzie (28)
• Wade Miley (39)
• Cal Quantrill (31)
• Marcus Stroman (35)
• José Ureña (34)
• Bryse Wilson (28)
• Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Note: Charlie Morton is technically a free agent. It’s widely expected that he’ll retire after signing a ceremonial deal to make a final appearance with the Braves on the last day of the regular season. He has yet to make an official announcement, however.

* Expected to be made available via posting system
^ Assumes buyout of club option
** Plans to pitch in Japan in 2026

Veteran Closers

• Kyle Finnegan (34)

Finnegan has racked up 112 saves over the past five seasons, mostly with the Nationals, but he also notched a few with the Tigers this year after a deadline deal. His rate stats have been more good than great. From 2021 to 2024, he had a 3.62 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 47.2% ground ball rate. Ahead of the 2025 season, the Nationals non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $8.6MM salary for his final year of club control.

After lingering on the market for a while, Finnegan returned to the Nats in early March, a $6MM guarantee with some deferrals. He pitched okay and got flipped to Detroit at the deadline, when his results ticked up. The Tigers had him throw his splitter way more, at the expense of his fastball. In 18 innings after the deal, he had a 1.50 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. He also made six postseason appearances but without the same level of dominance.

The track record of being a passable closer is already pretty good. Last time he was a free agent, he didn’t have a ton of juice, but perhaps some clubs will be intrigued by the extra gear he showed down the stretch with the different pitch mix. That could get him into multi-year deal territory.

• Raisel Iglesias (36)

Iglesias has a pretty lengthy track record of reliability in the closer’s role. He racked up 28 saves with the Reds back in 2017 and has reached double digits in each full season since then. He was a free agent four years ago and secured a four-year, $58MM deal from the Angels, though he was traded to Atlanta in the first season of that pact.

He’s now older and coming off an uneven year. He had a 4.42 ERA but settled down with a 1.76 ERA in the second half. Altogether, he tossed 67 1/3 innings with a 3.21 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. His age could limit him to one-year offers but a second year isn’t totally out of the question. In recent years, pitchers like Blake Treinen, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and Mark Melancon have received two-year deals worth $14MM or more for their age-37 seasons. Iglesias will be one year younger than that.

• Kenley Jansen (38)

Jansen is one of most successful closers in baseball history. He now has 476 saves, fourth on the all-time list. He’s still miles away from Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman but he’s only two saves away from tying Lee Smith in the number three spot.

Due to his age, he’s been signing short-term deals lately. He got a one-year pact with Atlanta in 2022, two years with the Red Sox for 2023-24, then one with the Angels for 2025. He just wrapped up another good season. He gave the Halos 59 innings with a 2.59 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He’s not as dominant as he once was but still racked up 29 saves. Another solid one-year deal should be out there for him somewhere.

• Emilio Pagán (35)

Pagán has been in the big leagues for years with a pretty consistent profile. His strikeout and walk rates are good but he gives up too many home runs. Despite the flaws, he was a free agent two years ago and secured a two-year, $16MM guarantee with an opt-out.

That deal was with the Reds, a club with one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the majors. Predictably, the first year didn’t go well. Pagán missed a couple of months with a lat strain and posted a 4.50 ERA. He decided not to trigger his opt out, staying in Cincinnati for 2025.

Surprisingly, that worked out. Pagán logged 68 2/3 innings this year with a 2.88 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He seemingly had a bit of help from a .200 batting average on balls in play and 76.5% strand rate. Regardless, his 3.72 FIP and 3.18 SIERA suggest he would have done okay even with less luck from the baseball gods. He took over the closer’s role and racked up 32 saves.

The under-the-hood numbers will give clubs some pause but Pagán had enough interest to get a nice multi-year deal the last time he was out there. He’s obviously older now but is perhaps heading back to the market with some nice juice after some success in the ninth inning.

Notable Bounceback Candidates

• Hunter Harvey (31)

The injury bug has been on Harvey for the past year-plus. The Royals acquired him from the Nationals in July of 2024. Unfortunately, mid-back tightness put him on the injured list for most of the remainder of that season. In 2025, a teres major strain and a right adductor strain wiped out most of the season. He only made 18 appearances for the Royals despite being with them for about a year and a half.

There will be some natural uncertainty with Harvey after those absences but the numbers are good. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has thrown 161 1/3 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate. He earned 11 saves and 58 holds in that time. There’s some health risk but Harvey makes for an intriguing buy-low opportunity, likely on a one-year deal.

• Ryan Helsley (31)

One year ago, Helsley seemed on track to be one of the top relievers of this winter’s class. That is no longer the case. He finished 2025 with a 4.50 ERA. He was particularly bad after being traded to the Mets at the deadline, with a 7.20 ERA after that swap.

That performance obviously cuts into his earning power, but some clubs may be able to find some glimmers of hope. The pre-2025 track record is great. From 2022 to 2024, he logged 167 2/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA while striking out 34.6% of batters faced. It’s been suggested that his struggles this year were the result of him tipping his pitches, so his results could come back with a minor adjustment. His velocity is mostly still there, as he averaged 99.3 mph this year, only a slight drop from his 99.7 mph peak.

The more pessimistic perspective is that Helsley has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now. His strikeout rate peaked at 39.3% in 2022 but has been dropping since. It was 35.6% in 2023 and 29.7% last year. Here in 2025, he dropped to 26.1% with Cards and then to 23.2% after being traded to the Mets. There are likely clubs who can see a way to reverse the trends but he might be limited to one-year pillow offers. It’s possible the velocity gets enough interest that he commands a two-year deal with an opt-out.

• Liam Hendriks (36)

Hendriks was one of the top closers in baseball from 2019 to 2022 but he’s mostly been in the wilderness since. He missed time early in 2023 while getting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He was able to beat cancer and get back on the mound that summer but then required Tommy John surgery in August.

He signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox for 2024 and 2025 but missed all of 2024 while recovering. The Sox were surely hoping for a fully healthy season from Hendriks in 2025 but didn’t get it. He was on and off the IL all year due to elbow/forearm issues, making 14 appearances for the big league club. He underwent a right elbow ulnar nerve transposition surgery at the end of September. His health status for next season isn’t clear.

• Michael Kopech (30)

Kopech never really made it as a starter but a bullpen move in 2024 seemed to be the right path for him. Between the White Sox and Dodgers that year, he tossed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA. His 12.2% walk rate was high but he punched out 31.5% of batters faced. He racked up 15 saves and nine holds on the year.

2025 was mostly a lost season, however, as he only logged 11 innings. Reports of forearm inflammation popped up way back in January. He started the season on the IL due to a shoulder impingement, reportedly due to him trying to quickly ramp up for the Tokyo Series after the forearm stuff. He was off the IL in early June but was back on the shelf later than month due to right knee inflammation. He underwent surgery to address a torn meniscus in July. He came off the IL at the start of September but inflammation in that knee put him back on the IL a few weeks later. Even as the Dodgers have pushed into the World Series, there’s been no suggestion that Kopech is getting close to rejoining the roster. The injuries probably limit Kopech to a one-year deal but there’s perhaps some intriguing upside based on his 2024 breakout.

• Jose Leclerc (32)

Leclerc spent the 2016 to 2024 seasons with the Rangers. He tossed 360 1/3 innings with a 3.27 ERA. His 13.2% walk rate was high but he also punched out 31.2% of batters faced. He was a key part of the club’s 2023 World Series run.

The Athletics gave him a one-year, $10MM deal for the 2025 season, but that investment turned into a bust. Leclerc only tossed nine innings for the A’s before requiring season-ending shoulder surgery. It’s unclear if he’s expected to be healthy by the start of next season.

• Jordan Romano (33)

Romano had a three-year run as the Blue Jays closer. From 2021 to 2023, he racked up 95 saves while posting a 2.37 ERA with a 30.3% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate. But in 2024, he was on and off the IL with elbow issues and only tossed 13 2/3 innings. The Jays non-tendered him instead of paying a projected $7.75MM salary for his final arbitration season.

The Phils tried for a bounceback, giving Romano $8.5MM. It didn’t pan out. Romano posted an 8.23 ERA across 42 2/3 innings this year. It surely wasn’t quite as bad as that ERA makes it seem. His 49% strand rate in 2025 was tiny. His 25.1% strikeout rate wasn’t as high as his peak but was still pretty good. His 3.66 SIERA would suggest he was extremely unlucky.

Even if luck played a notable role, Romano should have less earning power than a year ago. His 95.5 mph fastball velocity was a couple of ticks below his peak and even below the 96.4 he managed in his injury-marred 2024 campaign.

• Paul Sewald (36)

Sewald racked up double digit saves in each season from 2021 to 2024. In that span, he tossed 229 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. The final year of that stretch wasn’t his best. He battled some injuries and lost the closer’s role in Arizona.

Though he went into free agency on a bit of a down note, the Guardians still gave him a $7MM guarantee on a one-year deal. He technically has a mutual option for 2026 but those provisions are almost never picked up by both sides. The Guards twice put him on the IL due to a shoulder strain. He was still on the IL at the deadline when he was flipped to the Tigers, with Detroit absorbing the roughly $2.6MM still to be paid out. He made four appearances for the Tigers late in the year but didn’t crack the playoff roster.

Sewald finished this year with a 4.58 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. Those aren’t disastrous numbers and it’s perhaps notable that the Guards and Tigers were both willing to spend money on him this year. However, his fastball velocity was down to 90.4 mph this year around the shoulder issues.

• Devin Williams (31)

Williams came into this year as one of the best relievers alive. From 2020 to 2024, he tossed 222 innings with a minuscule 1.70 ERA. His 12% walk rate was high but he counteracted that by striking out 40.8% of batters faced and keeping 48.9% of balls in play on the ground. After Josh Hader was traded, Williams took over the closer’s role in Milwaukee. He earned 36 saves in 2023, though back issues limited him to just 14 in 2024.

He was traded to the Yankees ahead of the 2025 season and went on to post a 4.79 ERA, eventually losing his grip on the closer’s role. However, most of his underlying stats were still strong. His 34.7% strikeout rate and 44.6% ground ball rate moved in the wrong direction but were both still well above average. His 9.7% walk rate was actually his best in years.

The main reason for his ERA spike seems to be bad luck. His 55.2% strand rate was well below the 72.3% league average and his career rate of 75.8%. ERA estimators like his 2.68 FIP and 2.67 SIERA suggest he was almost as dominant as before.

There will perhaps be some talk that Williams couldn’t handle the bright lights of New York City but some may ignore that. For any team overlooking the fluky-looking ERA spike, it’s a chance to grab one of the best pitchers in baseball, perhaps with a soft market. A two-year deal with an opt-out could be possible but it’s also feasible that there’s enough faith in his stuff to get him a strong three- or four-year deal.

• Kirby Yates (39)

Yates has been really up and down lately. He had a massive breakout a few years back, including a 41-save season with a 1.19 ERA in the juiced-ball campaign of 2019. Then he was in the injury wilderness for a while but gradually got back on track. He racked up 33 saves for the Rangers in 2024 while posting a 1.17 ERA with a 35.9% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate.

The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $13MM deal for 2025. He spent time on the IL with hamstring and back injuries. Around those, he tossed 41 1/3 innings with a 5.23 ERA. His 29.2% strikeout rate was actually quite good and his 9.6% walk rate acceptable, but 17% of his fly balls left the yard. He finished the season on the shelf with a hamstring strain and hasn’t appeared in the postseason for the Dodgers.

Some ERA estimators consider home runs to be the fault of the pitcher while others consider them to be more random. That perhaps explains the difference between Yates’s 4.76 FIP and 3.33 SIERA this year. Regardless, it wasn’t an ideal season. But he’s shown an elite ceiling in the past, including as recently as last year, so another decent one-year deal could be out there for him.

Veteran Setup Guys

• Shawn Armstrong (35)

Armstrong has 421 1/3 career innings under his belt with a 3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. The Rangers scooped him up for $1.25MM on a one-year deal for 2025. He gave them 74 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He earned nine saves and 12 holds. He should get another one-year deal from some club looking to bolster the setup group.

• Seranthony Domínguez (31)

Domínguez has long been a power arm in the big leagues, combining good strikeout and ground ball numbers with some wildness. He has thrown 306 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and 45.3% ground ball rate. He does have 40 career saves but has never topped 16 in a season. He’s been deployed more as a setup guy, with 78 holds in his career.

The Blue Jays acquired him from the Orioles at the trade deadline. The move came as the two clubs were playing a doubleheader against each other, which allowed Domínguez to swap clubhouses between the two games. He’s been a key part of Toronto’s playoff bullpen, having already made seven appearances.

He’s not the best reliever in this post but there’s a lot to like. His fastball averages almost 98 mph, helping him get those strikeouts and grounders. He added a splitter this year to try to even out his platoon splits, though he still struggled with lefties in 2025. A decent multi-year deal is a possibility.

• Chris Martin (40)

Martin said a year ago that 2025 would likely be his final season. He hasn’t yet confirmed that, but it’s possible he’s now going to retire. If he wants to come back for one more, he should have interest. He got a one-year, $5.5MM deal from the Rangers for 2025 and delivered solid results. He posted a 2.98 ERA over 42 1/3 innings. He struck out 24.7% of batters faced and continued to show his elite control with a 4.6% walk rate.

• Phil Maton (33)

Maton always puts up good numbers but the market never really seems to value him, likely due to his middling velocity. He got $6.5MM from the Rays two offseasons ago and just $2MM from the Cards last winter. Between the Cards and Rangers this year, he logged 61 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. Based on precedent, another one-year deal should be a bargain for some club out there.

• Tyler Rogers (35)

Rogers has even less velocity than Maton, as his fastballs average in the low-to-mid-80s. However, there’s not really another pitcher like him in the majors. His submariner delivery is incredibly unique. He’s very durable, having never gone on the big league injured list, which has allowed him to toss at least 70 innings in each of the last five seasons. Over those five seasons, he has a 2.71 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate isn’t impressive but his 4.4% walk rate is tiny and his 56.3% ground ball rate is huge. He’s one of the best in the league at staying off barrels and limiting hard contact.

Teams generally prefer to have power pitchers in their setup roles but Rogers appears to be a special case. He reached 30 holds in four of the last five seasons. The Mets made him a key deadline pickup, sending a notable package of talent to the Giants. They then had him in a high leverage role down the stretch. That’s partly due to the struggles of Helsley and others but Rogers also held his own with a 2.30 ERA for the Mets.

It’s one of the harder markets to predict. Will teams overlook the nonexistent velocity and tiny strikeout numbers, focusing more on the control and weak contact? Or will clubs scoff at the profile like with Maton?

• Luke Weaver (32)

Weaver’s career as a starter went through many ups and downs but he finally settled in as a solid reliever in recent years. Going into 2024, the Yankees signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal with a $2.5MM club option for 2025 and performance bonuses. That turned into a bargain for them. Weaver tossed 148 2/3 innings over the course of that pact with a 3.21 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. He earned 12 saves and 43 holds.

The deal ended on a sour note, as Weaver allowed five runs over three postseason appearances, recording just one out. But from a wider viewpoint, it was two years of solid setup man results. Those kinds of guys can often find solid multi-year pacts, with recent examples including Jordan Hicks, Clay Holmes, Rafael Montero, Taylor Rogers and Reynaldo López. Some of those guys were signed to be stretched out as starters, something that Weaver hasn’t closed the door on.

Swing Types

• Jakob Junis (33)

Junis has worked as both as a starter and a reliever throughout most of his career, though he was exclusively used as a reliever in 2025. The Guardians gave him a one-year, $4.5MM deal coming into the season. He gave them 66 2/3 innings with a 2.97 ERA. His 20.1% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.6% clip. It was mostly low leverage work, as he earned only six holds and no saves. He should be able to secure another one-year pact for a low-leverage relief role or a gig as a swingman.

• Nick Martinez (35)

Martinez has shown a decent ability to be shuttled back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. His relief work is better but his starting work is passable and teams seem to value that flexibility. The Reds surprisingly made him a $21.05MM qualifying offer a year ago, which he accepted. He gave them 165 2/3 innings over 26 starts and 14 relief appearances. His 4.45 ERA wasn’t amazing, nor was his 17% strikeout rate, but he only walked 6.1% of batters faced and did a good job limiting hard contact. He had a 2.61 ERA in his relief outings this year, though while only striking out 11.1% of opponents.

Prior to accepting this QO, he was able to secure multi-year deals with opt-outs, seeming to have a strong willingness to bet on himself and repeatedly return to the market. He’s getting older now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get another multi-year pact.

• Michael Soroka (28)

Is Soroka a starter? The question seems to always go unanswered. After many years in the injury wilderness, he had an intriguing 2024 season with the White Sox. He didn’t pan out as a starter but finished the year strong as a multi-inning reliever. He logged 36 frames over his final 16 appearances with a 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate, though the 13% walk rate was ugly.

The Nats gave him a one-year, $9MM deal and an opportunity to start again. He started for them 16 times with a 4.87 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 42.6% ground ball rate. Those are decent numbers but it’s still not clear if he should be facing hitters multiple times. He held opponents to a .193/.250/.329 line when facing them the first time but gave up a .218/.302/.395 line the second time through. Hitters facing him a third time slashed .319/.467/.574.

He was traded to the Cubs ahead of the deadline but made just one more start before a shoulder strain sent him to the IL. He was able to come off the shelf late in the year but was kept in the bullpen. If he wants another shot at starting, he should be able to find one since a relief role is a decent fallback, though there’s enough uncertainty that he’ll likely still be limited to another one-year deal.

Options/Opt-Outs

• Scott Barlow (33)

The Reds signed Barlow to a one-year, $2.5MM deal last offseason. That came in the form of a $1.5MM salary and a $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option. He gave them 68 1/3 innings with a 4.21 ERA, basically in line with the 4.25 ERA he had with Cleveland the year prior. However, his strikeout rate dropped from 28.2% to 24.8%, his walk rate climbed from 12.9% to 14.9% and his grounder rate fell from 47.1% to 42.9%. With the needles moving in the wrong direction, the Reds should cut their losses, which would leave Barlow looking for another one-year deal.

• Pete Fairbanks (32)

Fairbanks can be retained via an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout. His strikeout rate isn’t quite what it once was, but he’s still getting decent results. He just gave the Rays 60 1/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate. He recorded 27 saves, his third straight season with at least 23. The net $10MM decision is justifiable enough for the Rays to pick it up, though they will probably trade Fairbanks to a club with a bigger payroll.

• Pierce Johnson (35)

Johnson’s deal contains a $7MM club option with a $250K buyout. His strikeout rate dropped to 24.8% in 2025, after being around 30% in prior seasons. On the other hand, his control improved. His walk rate landed at 8% this year after being in the 10-13% range for many seasons before that. The result was a 3.05 ERA, 16 holds and one save. He’s not elite but Atlanta has plenty of bullpen questions and probably picks this up.

• Tyler Kinley (35)

Despite being out of contention at the deadline, Atlanta acquired Kinley from the Rockies, presumably because they wanted to bolster their 2026 bullpen without having to wait for the offseason. Kinley’s contains a $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout. After getting away from Coors Field, he gave Atlanta 25 innings with 0.72 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. It would be a surprise if he’s not back in the Atlanta bullpen next year.

• Andrew Kittredge (36)

Kittredge signed a one-year, $10MM pact with the Orioles last winter. That came in the form of a $9MM salary and $1MM buyout on a $9MM club option for 2026. A left knee injury kept him out of action until mid-May but he got back on track and was dealt to the Cubs at the deadline. Between those two teams, he tossed 53 innings with a 3.40 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate. He made Chicago’s playoff roster and made five more appearances in the postseason.

Given his continued strong results, $8MM feels like a fair price to keep Kittredge around. That’s especially true for the Cubs, who seem to prefer to avoid lengthy and expensive investments in the relief corps.

• Jonathan Loáisiga (31)

Loáisiga has some talent but hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a lengthy period of time lately. He started this season on the injured list, recovering from UCL surgery. He came off the IL but had to head back there due to back tightness. While on the IL, he suffered a flexor strain that ended his season. Even when on the mound, his 18.5% strikeout rate was well below the mid-20s rates he had in his earlier seasons. There’s a $5MM club option, with no buyout, but the Yanks should be able to walk away. Even if they want to give him another shot, they should be able to get him back for less than that.

• Andrés Muñoz (27)

Muñoz is one of the best closers in baseball. The club option is only for $7MM and there are two affordable club options for 2027 and 2028. This is definitely getting picked up.

• Drew Smith (32)

Smith required UCL surgery in July of 2024, just a few months before reaching free agency. The Mets signed him to a one-year deal with a $1MM salary in 2025 with a $2MM club option for 2026. He didn’t pitch at all in 2025 but the $2MM price point is fair if the Mets expect him to be ready for a full healthy season in 2026. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 161 1/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate.

Established Japanese Arms

• Takahiro Norimoto (35)

Norimoto had a long run as a successful starter for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He moved to the bullpen in 2024, his age-33 season, and has spent the past two seasons as the Eagles’ closer. A 3.23 ERA and 48 saves in 53 tries through 108 2/3 frames as closer looks solid enough, but Norimoto’s strikeout rate has fallen to around 18%. His fastball was still touching 98 mph in 2024, but MLBTR spoke to a scout who clocked him 92-94 mph during the current season. Norimoto’s track record might get him a big league deal, but it’d probably be a cheap deal along the lines of those signed by countrymen Yoshihisa Hirano (two years, $6MM) and Hirokazu Sawamura (two years, $3MM) when they jumped to the majors in their mid-30s. A non-roster deal is also possible, and Norimoto could probably earn decent money staying in Japan if MLB offers aren’t enticing.

• Kona Takahashi (29)

The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahshi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.

Depth Types

• Scott Blewett (30)
• Ryan Brasier (38)
• John Brebbia (36)
• Nabil Crismatt (31)
• Chris Devenski (35)
• Alexis Díaz (29)
• Dane Dunning (31)
• Chris Flexen (31)
• Luis García (39)
• Kendall Graveman (35)
• Chad Green (35)
• Carlos Hernández (29)
• Luke Jackson (34)
• Tommy Kahnle (36)
• Jorge López (33)
• Shelby Miller (35)
• Rafael Montero (35)
• Héctor Neris (37)
• Adam Ottavino (40)
• Ryan Pressly (37)
• Tanner Rainey (33)
• Erasmo Ramírez (36)
• Joe Ross (33)
• Tayler Scott (34)
• Lucas Sims (32)
• Ryne Stanek (34)
• Chris Stratton (35)
• Hunter Strickland (37)
• Erik Swanson (32)
• Lou Trivino (34)
• José Ureña (34)
• Bryse Wilson (28)
• Jake Woodford (29)

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images