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The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We’ll start with a look at the position players, with a preview of the pitchers to come later in the week. While there may be some close calls on the pitching side, there shouldn’t be a ton of intrigue with the hitting decisions. Many of this year’s top free agent hitters are ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning there’ll probably only be four who receive it — each of whom would have a relatively easy decision to decline.

No-Doubters

• Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
• Kyle Tucker (Cubs)

There’s not much to say about this trio. They’ll all receive and reject a QO. Tucker could seek a contract north of $400MM, while Bichette should aim for $200MM+ despite a late-season knee sprain. Schwarber’s age and lack of defensive value will keep him below $200MM, but he’s going to easily beat $22MM per season on what should at least be a four-year contract.

Likely Recipient

• Trent Grisham (Yankees)

Grisham is a safe bet to receive the qualifying offer as well, though that’s perhaps more of a 90-95% likelihood than the absolute locks of the top tier. It should be an easy call for him to decline on the heels of a 34-homer breakout that is supported by impressive batted ball metrics. Even with a dip in his typically strong defensive grades, Grisham has a shot at a four- of five-year deal going into his age-29 season. He’s the top center fielder in the class.

The only argument against the Yankees issuing the QO is that they’d receive the lowest compensation as a luxury tax payor: a pick after the fourth round. If they feel there’s even a 10% chance of Grisham accepting, maybe they’d rather not risk committing $22MM and an accompanying $24MM in luxury taxes within the first two weeks of the offseason. Still, one imagines they’d happily take Grisham back on the off chance that he were willing to accept a one-year guarantee.

Long Shots

• Jorge Polanco (Mariners)
• Gleyber Torres (Tigers)

Polanco has had a huge second season in Seattle. He hit 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 slash across 524 regular season plate appearances. His .703 OPS in the postseason isn’t great overall, but he has drilled three more home runs (including two off Tarik Skubal in a Game 2 victory in the Division Series). It’s arguably the best offensive performance of his career after accounting for the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park. All that said, it’s difficult to see the Mariners offering $22MM to a 32-year-old whose defensive home is in question because of knee injuries. There’s a strong chance Polanco would accept, as his age and durability issues should cap him at a three-year deal even if he’s not attached to draft compensation.

Torres was on track to receive a qualifying offer after hitting .281/.387/.425 in an All-Star first half. He subsequently hit .223/.320/.339 and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. While the injury offers an explanation for the late-season drop in production, it’s likelier that Torres is who he is: an above-average but not great hitter who plays a mediocre second base. He finished his lone season in Detroit with a .256/.358/.387 line with 16 homers, similar numbers to those he posted (.257/.330/.378) during his walk year with the Yankees. That got him a $15MM free agent deal. It’s tough to see Detroit offering him an extra $7MM and potentially locking that money up by mid-November.

That’s essentially it for any hitters with an outside chance to receive a QO. The only other player who even received consideration in this tier is Luis Arraez. While he still has the game’s best contact skills and is a good bet to hit .300, there’s just not enough overall impact to justify a $22MM salary. Of the 32 first basemen who tallied 400+ plate appearances, Arraez ranked 19th in on-base percentage (.327) and 26th in slugging (.392).

Ineligible

• Pete Alonso
• Harrison Bader
• Cody Bellinger
• Alex Bregman
• Ha-Seong Kim
• Josh Naylor
• Ryan O’Hearn
• J.T. Realmuto
• Trevor Story
• Eugenio Suárez

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, Realmuto and Story (who seems unlikely to opt out anyway). Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bader, Naylor, O’Hearn and Suárez were all traded at the deadline. The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from Tampa Bay in September.

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $22.025MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — for the 2025 draft, five total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day.

These lower-spending teams usually don’t splurge on bigger-name free agents in general, yet last offseason saw the Diamondbacks sign Corbin Burnes, and the Athletics (!) sign Luis Severino.  The Tigers also made a push to land Alex Bregman, and Detroit might feel more pressure about sealing the deal on a splashy move this winter since Tarik Skubal is only a year away from free agency.  The Orioles or Reds could be candidates to spend a little more than usual, with Cincinnati trying to build on a playoff appearance and Baltimore trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025.  Seattle could also explore qualified free agents, but the M’s are more likely to first focus on trying to re-sign one of their own guys in Josh Naylor, who isn’t eligible for a QO.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The rebuilding Cardinals and White Sox and won’t be spending big in free agency.  The same is very likely true of the Nationals, whose own rebuild period is likely to be extended since new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni will need time to evaluate (and overhaul) the organization.  Texas is planning to either stand pat on spending or reduce payroll.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have generally been more inclined to build their roster through trades or their own farm system rather than long-term free agent deals, but Atlanta could change tactics after a losing season in 2025.  The Angels figure to be active in free agency, even if spending bigger on a qualified free agent might not necessarily be on the radar.  San Francisco signed qualified free agent Willy Adames last winter, and are again expected to at least check in many of the major free agent names.  There doesn’t appear to be much optimism that the Cubs will re-sign Kyle Tucker, but they could respond to a Tucker departure by making some other prominent signings.

Part of the equation for these clubs and the clubs in the next two categories could be what other picks they’re receiving this winter, to balance out their draft capital.  For instance, if Tucker rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the Cubs would get a compensatory pick just before the start of the third round of the draft.  While a lower selection than whatever Chicago’s second-highest pick would be, getting another draft pick back and then losing a pick to sign a qualified free agent somewhat makes it a wash for the Cubs.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Astros managed to sneak under the $241MM tax threshold. RosterResource has Houston slightly under the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Astros slightly over the line.  Given this discrepancy and the narrow margins involved, we’ll keep the Astros in their own special grouping until the league issues the official Competitive Balance Tax numbers in December.

Since Houston were tax-payors in 2024, the Astros might have reset their CBT status if they were indeed able to stay under the $241MM line.  Being a two-time payor means an escalating tax rate, and that tax bill would keep escalating if the Astros again finished over the $244MM threshold in 2026.  Caveat: the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so the qualifying offer system or luxury tax system might very well be adjusted or even heavily changed in a new CBA, so a repeater-tax status might no longer be a concern to the Astros or other teams.

Staying under the 2025 tax line also means the Astros could be more willing to explore signing qualified free agents, though their tax-payor status last winter didn’t stop the team from signing Christian Walker.

As noted in the previous post, the Rangers could end up as tax-payors and the Red Sox may have ducked under the tax line, depending on the league’s final calculations. Boston seems the likelier of those two teams to sign a qualified free agent, as the Rangers are expected to reduce payroll this offseason.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft.

All seven of these clubs are clearly in win-now mode, so the higher penalties shouldn’t be much of an obstacle towards a pursuit of qualified free agents in most cases.  (The Padres are the probable exception since they’re operating within a narrower payroll margin.)  Since every team would prefer to keep their draft picks if they can help it, the tax payors might target non-qualified free agents who aren’t tied to draft compensation.  For instance, while the Dodgers are expected to at least check in Tucker’s market, Los Angeles could consider any number of other free agents before aiming at the outfielder that will cost the most in both contract size and additional draft penalties.

Since re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent comes with no penalty, this could make some of these clubs more inclined to retain their own impending free agents rather than seek out new talent. The Phillies have been public with their desire to keep Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keeping tabs on Bo Bichette.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2026 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $22.025MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2025 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the one-year pact and forego free agency altogether to stick with his club.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.

Looking at these teams’ members of the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff are the only likely-to-reasonable qualifying offer candidates.  You could also make a case for the Tigers issuing Jack Flaherty a QO if he rejects his $20MM player option for 2026.  Notable impending free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are examples of players who are ineligible for the QO because they only joined the Mariners partway through the season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50MM).  The Red Sox were a member of this group in 2024 because they weren’t tax-payors, and thus Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.

The chief name to watch here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will probably command the largest deal of any player in the 2025-26 free agent class.  Chicago could also issue a QO to Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would first require the Cubs to decide on a series of club options and attached player options for Imanaga, so quite a few hoops have to be jumped through for Imanaga to actually hit the open market.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

It is usually pretty obvious which teams are well over or well under the luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025), and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of estimating the ebbs and flows of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons.  The league’s accounting office naturally has the full set of salary data from each team, and thus we won’t know each club’s official status until MLB releases their information in December.

For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear.  RosterResource has the Astros with an approximate tax number of $238.2MM that keeps them under the threshold, while Cot’s has Houston over the line with a $244MM tax number.  If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for a second straight year, they’ll face the increased “second-time payor” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent over $241MM, which works out to $900K if Cot’s $244MM projection is accurate.

While the actual tax bill of $900K is negligible, the more sizeable impact for the Astros would be in regards to impending free agent Framber Valdez.  The veteran southpaw will surely be issued a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out that they stayed under the tax threshold.  If their tax number is indeed more than $244MM, Houston joins the next category of teams.

Two other teams merit consideration for the “limbo” zone.  Both Cot’s and RosterResource had Texas staying under the tax line, and both sites had the Red Sox over going the line, but those are unofficial estimates within a reasonable margin of error in either direction.  Since those projections were all within $5.5MM of the CBT threshold, however, that’s enough of a margin of error that the league’s final calculations might tell a different story.  Reporting from the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant and DLLS Sports’ Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline indicated that the Rangers exceeded the tax threshold.

The Rangers don’t have any free agents who should get consideration for a qualifying offer anyway. Merrill Kelly is ineligible after changing teams midseason, and no one else in their group of impending free agents warrants a salary in the $22MM range. Tyler Mahle might’ve been on that path, but he missed a few months midseason with a rotator cuff injury. Boston’s Lucas Giolito is a borderline QO case, plus his season-ending elbow issue may weigh into whatever decision the Red Sox make on the qualifying offer front.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft.  As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.

As it turns out, many of the most obvious qualifying-offer candidates of this winter’s free agent class happen to come from tax-paying teams.  The Phillies have Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, the Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King, the Blue Jays have Bo Bichette, the Mets have Edwin Diaz (who is likely to opt out of his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham‘s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate.

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to center field, a position that has been weak in free agency for the past few years. That’s again the case this winter, as the handful of potential regulars face questions about their offensive consistency and/or how long they can play up the middle. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop

Everyday Players

Trent Grisham (29)

Grisham has gone from fourth outfielder to the top center fielder in the class within six months. He picked a great time for the best season of his career. Grisham connected on 34 home runs, doubling his previous season high. He pushed his already strong walk rate to a career-high 14.1% clip while cutting his strikeouts (23.6%) to the lowest mark in four years. The end result was a .235/.348/.464 slash line across 581 plate appearances. He spent most of the season hitting atop the Yankee lineup in front of Aaron Judge.

It’s not entirely fair to say that came out of nowhere. Grisham is a former top prospect who had a couple strong seasons with the Padres early in his career. He had hit just .191/.298/.353 in nearly 1300 trips to the plate from 2022-24, however, so almost no one would have seen a season like this coming.

The breakout was neither a product of batted ball luck nor Yankee Stadium. Grisham posted well above-average marks in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity. Statcast’s expected batting average and slugging percentage (based on his plate discipline, exit velocities and launch angles) were even better than his actual production. That doesn’t necessarily mean the numbers are sustainable. Even if this year’s results were “deserved,” there’s no guarantee he’ll continue swinging the bat as well as he did.

While this was a career year offensively, Grisham’s defensive grades went the other way. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved had graded him as an average or better defender in every previous season. That was not the case this year, with DRS (-11) particularly down on his work. Grisham’s speed has trended down over the past few seasons and he’s now one of the slower center fielders in MLB.

It leaves teams with a difficult evaluation. Will Grisham remain an impact bat at the top of a lineup? How much longer will he stick in center field? He’s one of the most high-variance players in the entire free agent class. The Yankees should make him a qualifying offer, which he’d almost certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a compensatory pick after the fourth round while costing a signing team draft (and potentially international bonus pool) compensation. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table.

Cody Bellinger (30)

Bellinger is opting out of the final year on his contract with the Yankees. New York won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer because he already received one from the Cubs after the 2023 season. Bellinger won’t be attached to draft compensation and should pull a larger contract than Grisham, potentially in the nine figures.

It’s unclear if any team would make that kind of offer for Bellinger to play center field every day. He hasn’t reached 500 innings at the position in either of the past two years. The Cubs split him evenly between center and right in 2024. The Yankees gave him 38 starts and a little over 300 innings in center while playing him more often in the corners. Bellinger still runs well and grades as a strong corner defender, though the hope would probably be for league average glovework if a team plays him in center.

Bellinger hit 29 homers while slashing .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. His left-handed swing seemed tailor made for Yankee Stadium, as he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 longballs at home. His pedestrian road numbers (.241/.301/.414) could give some teams pause, and Belllinger’s middling exit velocities have been a talking point for the past few years. He very rarely strikes out, though, and he’s coming off his second well above-average offensive season in the past three years.

Harrison Bader (32)

Bader will decline his end of a $10MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout. He hits the market for a third consecutive offseason. His past two trips resulted in one-year deals. Bader should find a multi-year pact this time around, and there’s an outside chance he commands a three-year deal.

A plus runner with excellent range and a strong arm, Bader has been a fantastic defender throughout his career. Even at 32, he’s the best defensive center fielder on the open market (assuming the White Sox pick up their option on Luis Robert). Bader split his 2025 season almost equally between left and center, but that was only because he spent the first half playing in the same Minnesota outfield as Byron Buxton. He was a full-time center fielder after being traded to the Phillies at the deadline.

The question is how much of this year’s personal-best offensive output is sustainable. Bader slashed .277/.347/.449 with a career-high 17 home runs in 501 plate appearances. He set new high water marks in batting average and on-base percentage. His slugging output was the second-best of his career behind his 2021 season with St. Louis.

Bader’s underlying offensive metrics are not as encouraging. He struck out at a 27.1% clip, his highest rate in five seasons. He made more hard contact than he had in prior years, but Statcast estimators feel he dramatically outperformed his expected batting average and slugging percentage. He’s unlikely to hit .359 on balls in play again. Teams will expect him to take a step back offensively. He should land somewhere in between this year’s production and the .239/.284/.360 slash he posted over the prior three seasons.

Low-End Regulars/Fourth Outfielders

Cedric Mullins (31)

A few months ago, Mullins had an outside chance at a nine-figure deal. He started the year on fire, hitting .278/.412/.515 with six home runs through the end of April. He was on pace for his best season since he was a top ten MVP finisher four years ago.

Things fell apart. Mullins had a sub-.650 OPS in four of the final five months. He hit .198/.263/.355 in 379 plate appearances from May 1 onward. A deadline trade to the Mets didn’t serve as the turning point they’d hoped. Mullins hit .182/.284/.281 over 42 games in Queens. He was essentially relegated to fourth outfield work as the team squandered a playoff berth.

Mullins still logged over 1000 innings in center field. Defensive metrics have been mixed on him throughout his career. Statcast grades him as a generally rangy defender but rates his arm as one of the worst in the league. He’ll probably find a team willing to play him every day, but he’s likely looking at a one-year deal.

Lane Thomas (30)

While Thomas is probably better suited for right field, the Guardians mostly used him in center. Cleveland paid a decent prospect price to acquire Thomas from Washington at the 2024 deadline. It didn’t work out (postseason homer off Tarik Skubal aside), as he hit .189/.258/.340 over 329 plate appearances with the Guardians. That includes a .160/.246/.272 slash over 39 games this season. Thomas dealt with a right wrist injury early in the season and tried to play through plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He had three separate injured list stints overall.

Thomas is only two seasons removed from hitting 28 homers and stealing 20 bases for the Nats. He was an above-average regular who feasted on left-handed pitching at his best. He’ll need to take a one-year deal after how poorly things went in Cleveland.

Team Options

Luis Robert Jr. (28)

Robert isn’t likely to get to the market. The White Sox hold a $20MM club option that comes with a $2MM buyout. The $18MM difference is substantial for a player who has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons. The White Sox maintained a high asking price on Robert in trade talks, though, and GM Chris Getz has implied that they’ll exercise the option. There’s another $20MM option for 2027, so there’s still some long-term upside if Robert recaptures the form he showed earlier in his career.

Minor League Deal Candidates

• Garrett Hampson (31)
• Travis Jankowski (35)
• Jorge Mateo (31)
• Jose Siri (31)
• Leody Taveras (27)
• Chris Taylor (35)
• Tyler Wade (31)

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to shortstop, where there is one guy clearly above the rest of the pack, though even he comes with notable question marks. The market behind him will be shaped by a couple of key option decisions. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base

Top of the Class

• Bo Bichette (28)

Bichette will hit free agency at a relatively young age and coming off a strong season at the plate. Apart from an injury-marred 2024, his offense has been consistently above average. Through the end of 2023, he had a .299/.340/.487 line and 126 wRC+. He has never drawn tons of walks but is also tough to strike out. He had a 143 wRC+ in his brief 2019 debut but then was in the 120-129 range in four straight seasons after that.

As mentioned, he struggled badly while playing through a number of injuries last year. The end result was a .225/.277/.322 line and 70 wRC+. This year, until recently, he was healthy and back to his old self. He finished 2025 with a .311/.357/.483 line and 134 wRC+.

There’s no doubting the bat but there are other questions. Bichette’s defense has never been highly rated. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a -19 grade in his career. Outs Above Average puts him at -32. His 2025 season resulted in -12 DRS and -13 OAA. Those numbers from this year were both last among shortstops.

Then there’s the health stuff. Bichette has dealt with lower body injuries in three straight seasons now. Right knee and quad injuries sent him to the injured list late in 2023. Last year, it was mostly his right calf which was causing him problems. This year, he suffered a sprain of the posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in a collision with Yankee catcher Austin Wells, as seen in this clip from MLB.com. He’s now been out more than a month, having missed the end of the regular season and all of Toronto’s postseason run so far.

In recent years, strong everyday shortstops like Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story have earned guarantees in the $140-$182MM range. Bichette is a better hitter than anyone in that group was when they hit free agency. He’s also a year younger than they all were. The questions about his defense and health should dock him somewhat but he should still have plenty of earning power. Perhaps not many clubs view him as a viable shortstop but the bat is good enough that it might not matter. Marcus Semien got $175MM to move to second base and Bichette could follow that path.

Two Big Option Decisions

• Ha-Seong Kim (30)

Kim can opt out of the final year of his contract, which would mean leaving $16MM on the table. He isn’t coming off a great season, having hit just .234/.304/.345 for a wRC+ of 82. However, he is at least healthy. Last offseason, he got a two-year, $29MM guarantee even though he was recovering from shoulder surgery and was slated to miss the beginning of the season. He’s unlikely to secure a massive deal, but another two-year deal with an opt-out should be available to him, especially with so few viable alternatives on this list.

Prior to his shoulder surgery, he had a strong run with the Padres. From 2022 to 2024, he slashed .250/.336/.385 for a 106 wRC+ while stealing 72 bases and providing quality defense at various positions. FanGraphs credited him with 10.5 wins above replacement over those three seasons, a pace of 3.5 WAR annually. He didn’t immediately bounce back in 2025 but perhaps he can find a new gear now that he’s further removed from surgery.

• Trevor Story (33)

Story is arguably in the inverse position of Kim. He had a better season in 2025 but has less of a case for opting out. He had roughly league average offense this year but that includes a slow start after three injury-marred years. Once he got in a groove, he stayed in it. He had a .216/.260/.326 line and 59 wRC+ through the end of May but then slashed .289/.334/.492 for a 124 wRC+ from June onwards. He also stole 31 bases on the year.

However, his defense was graded poorly and he is about to turn 33 years old. He has two years and $55MM left on his deal. Despite his strong season, his age and injury history may scare teams away from investing in him. He may be tempted to trigger the opt-out, as that forces the Sox to decide whether or not to keep him by triggering his 2028 club option. But since his contract looked like an albatross just a few months ago, the Sox might be happy to let him walk. They could try Marcelo Mayer at short and then use Story’s money to re-sign Alex Bregman or add pitching.

Multi-Positional Types

• Willi Castro (29)

Castro had a solid few years with the Twins but his production cratered at the worst time. He slashed .251/.334/.395 for a 107 wRC+ over 2023 and 2024 while stealing 47 bases and bouncing all around the diamond. His numbers this year were right on that pace until he was traded to the Cubs. After the swap, he hit .170/.245/.240 for a wRC+ of 40. That awful finish will cut into his earning power and he’s not a strong enough defender to be an everyday shortstop anyway. But he can play there in a pinch while also being an option basically everywhere else. He doesn’t have a ton of juice but even light-hitting utility types have value. The Blue Jays gave Isiah Kiner-Falefa $15MM over two years heading into 2024, for instance, and IKF has never had an above-average offensive season.

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (31)

Speaking of which, that two-year pact is about to expire, meaning IKF will be back out there again this winter. The Jays traded him to the Pirates last year but got him back via a waiver claim here in 2025. He hit .266/.302/.356 for a wRC+ of 84 over the course of the deal but was still worth 2.8 fWAR thanks to his 26 stolen bases and strong glovework at various positions. He’s currently getting a decent amount of playing time from a club on the doorstep of the World Series. It’s not the most exciting profile but IKF is a more viable defensive shortstop than Castro. Considering the lack of options on the market, someone should be able to find a role for him.

• Miguel Rojas (37)

Rojas has said he plans to retire after 2026 and hopes that he can stay with the Dodgers for his final season. He’s been pretty solid in the past couple of years, hitting .273/.328/.404 for a 105 wRC+ while continuing to be a viable defender around the dirt. If it’s not with the Dodgers, some other club would be happy to utilize him in a similar bench/utility role.

Minor League Deal Candidates

• Tim Anderson (33)
• Orlando Arcia (31)
• Dylan Moore (34)
• Kevin Newman (32)