MLBTR Originals

Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

By Matt Swartz | January 8, 2017 at 5:51pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong

Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado earned $5MM last year, but after belting 41 home runs, knocking in 133 runs and hitting .294 in 696 plate appearances, he is due for a hefty raise. The record raise for a second-time-eligible position player on a one-year deal is Chris Davis’ $7.1MM increase in 2014. My model actually projects for an $8.4MM raise in Arenado’s case; however, the “Kimbrel Rule” – which states that no player gets projected for an increase over $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class – moves Arenado down to an $8.1MM raise (a $13.1MM salary).

Davis’ 2014 case is by far the most applicable to Arenado’s. Aside from those two, no other player eligible for his second year of arbitration has led his league in home runs and RBIs. Davis hit .286 with 53 homers and 138 RBIs the prior year, so his numbers are similar except for clearly having more HRs. However, Arenado does play a harder defensive position than Davis, a first baseman, and the former actually won a Gold Glove last year. So there is a good reason to think that Arenado could earn more, especially three years later. But the 12 fewer home runs signify that it is less than a sure thing.

Finding another comparable is extremely difficult. No other third basemen since 2009 have even hit 20 home runs and received one-year deals in their second year of arbitration eligibility. No other position players have hit at least 35 home runs and received one-year deals in their second year of arbitration eligibility.

Using players receiving multi-year deals is generally not customary in these cases, but can be done in some unique circumstances. Often when both the player and the team exchange numbers, the club’s offer can be seen as a potential comparable case. Josh Donaldson’s case last year could be one such scenario. Donaldson hit the exact 41 home runs that Arenado did this past year, and knocked in 123 runs (just 10 shy of Arenado’s total). He also hit .297, which is almost exactly where Arenado landed. Donaldson ultimately received a multi-year deal, but he first exchanged figures with the Blue Jays, who offered a $7.05MM raise. Donaldson’s two-year deal gave him a $7.35mM raise. He did win the MVP in his platform year, so that could be a better case, but the multi-year deal probably makes it a weaker comparable. On the other hand, Donaldson only requested a $7.5MM raise, so it would be hard to see why Arenado would get more without an MVP award.

I would guess that Arenado ultimately receives closer to a $7MM raise than the $8.1MM he is projected to land. Davis’ extra home runs and Donaldson’s MVP award help their cases look stronger than Arenado’s, and even though Donaldson got a multi-year deal, his exchange of salary figures with the Jays fit into a pretty tight window. Arenado may argue that Donaldson’s case is not applicable, and that Davis’ extra home runs came with less defense, but it might not work. Although fielding is certainly considered in arbitration cases, I have not found any statistically significant impact of defense on earnings and the overall effect is limiting. Arenado may yet earn his lofty projection, but I would take the under.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | January 8, 2017 at 9:06am CDT

Here is the MLBTR staff’s original content from the first week of 2017…

Contributor Matt Swartz began his “Arbitration Breakdown” series, exploring some of this winter’s more interesting arb cases. Manny Machado (link) and Addison Reed (link) both received solo spotlights, while Swartz also examined groupings of players with similar arbitration projections — Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer (link), Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez (link) and the starting pitching quartet of Gerrit Cole, Mike Fiers, Collin McHugh and Jake Odorizzi.
Speaking of Todd Frazier, the third baseman’s name has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate since the White Sox are in a rebuilding mode. Jeff Todd broke down the market to see which teams could have a need for Frazier at the hot corner.
With a number of big names still on the open market, Jeff and Charlie Wilmoth looked at notable January free agent signings from the last six years.
Chris Carter and Neftali Feliz are two of the more notable players available in free agency. Connor Byrne looked at Carter’s free agent profile, while Charlie did the same for Feliz.
Connor analyzed how much each division has thus far spent to sign players on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents available this offseason, with the NL West far and away leading the pack
With the Tigers known to be looking for affordable center field help, Steve Adams looked at some of the potential free agent names that could fit in the Motor City.
Over 65% of MLBTR readers polled by Connor believe the Astros still need to add another top-of-the-rotation arm to be serious contenders in 2017.
In another poll from Connor, Greg Holland was the overwhelming choice as the best reliever still on the open market, with the former Royals closer collecting over 53.5% of the vote.
The “3 Remaining Needs” series took a division-by-division look at what each team still has to address before Opening Day. Jeff, Connor and Charlie respectively covered the AL West, AL Central and NL Central.

Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 10:48pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.

Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.

Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.

With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.

Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.

It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Do Astros Need To Acquire Front-End Starter?

By Connor Byrne | January 7, 2017 at 8:40pm CDT

As a result of a somewhat disappointing 2016 that began with World Series aspirations and ended with a third-place finish in the AL West, the Astros have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Since November, Houston has either traded for or signed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki and Charlie Morton in an attempt to beef up a roster that won 84 games last season. You’ll notice that only one of those five – Morton – is a starting pitcher, and he’s a back-end type who has dealt with a laundry list of injuries during his career.

The Astros’ inability to acquire a front-line starter this winter to join Morton and others in their rotation hasn’t been for a lack of trying, of course. To this point, the team has pursued trades for ex-White Sox and now-Red Sox ace Chris Sale, current ChiSox No. 1 Jose Quintana, various members of the Rays’ rotation – including Chris Archer – as well as Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura of the Royals. Astros president Reid Ryan has even publicly opined that the club is missing an ace.

“What we lack is that starter who you pencil in at the top of the rotation that is an automatic W,” Ryan told MLB Network Radio in December.

Of the starters the Astros have courted via trade, they’ve been the most aggressive with the 27-year-old Quintana, who has both an outstanding track record and an ultra-affordable contract. Houston and Chicago have been in touch on a daily basis regarding Quintana, though the Astros haven’t been willing to sacrifice possible long-term rotation pieces to land the southpaw. That includes 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove, who had an encouraging major league debut last season, and fellow righty Francis Martes. Unlike Musgrove, Martes hasn’t reached the big league level, but the 21-year-old was terrific with Double-A Corpus Christi in 2016 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 29th-best prospect.

“It would take something significant for us to move him,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said of Martes last month.

While Quintana does qualify as “significant,” it’s debatable whether a No. 1-type starter is more of a need than a luxury for the Astros. Their premier option, lefty Dallas Keuchel, took sizable steps backward last season as he dealt with shoulder troubles, yet he isn’t far removed from a two-year run of brilliance that culminated with the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. Shoulder issues also limited curveball-heavy righty Lance McCullers last season, but the 23-year-old has been highly effective when healthy since debuting in 2015. Across 206 2/3 innings, McCullers has logged a 3.22 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 50.5 percent ground-ball rate.

The other members of the Astros’ projected starting five – Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Morton – have decidedly less upside than Keuchel and McCullers, but each are capable major league starters. And, in the event of injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Astros possess depth with Musgrove, Martes, Brady Rodgers and David Paulino either ready for the majors or close to it. Further, led by Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz, Houston has a deep bullpen that can shorten games and take pressure off its rotation.

In the end, it would certainly be a boon for the Astros to add Quintana (or someone of his ilk) to what looks like a playoff-caliber roster. At least opening the season with their current contingent of rotation options would be far from catastrophic, though, and Luhnow could continue to monitor the trade market during the season if his starters don’t suffice. Of course, judging by his ongoing interest in Quintana, it seems Luhnow wants to bolster his rotation before the 2017 campaign commences. But does he really need to?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Entering 2017, are the Astros serious contenders with current rotation options?

No. They must acquire a front-end starter. 63.19% (5,829 votes)

Yes. It's a good enough group. 36.81% (3,396 votes)

Total Votes: 9,225

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Todd Frazier & Eric Hosmer

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 3:58pm CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Two corner infielders, Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer, enter arbitration this offseason after completing two-year deals that paid them each $8.25MM in the latter year (including a prorated portion of Frazier’s signing bonus). Both had solid years as power hitters, and my model projects each to receive a raise of $5.25MM for Frazier and $5.05MM for Hosmer, to $13.5MM and $13.3MM, respectively).

Only ten position players in the past decade have received additional single-year salaries through arbitration after receiving multi-year deals earlier in their eligibility. Most of these players had poor seasons, and only five of these ten have met these criteria since 2009.

As a result, it’s difficult to find good comparables for the situations in which Frazier and Hosmer find themselves. Perhaps the best match would be Prince Fielder, who received a $4MM raise in 2011 after a solid season in which he batted .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBIs. Frazier actually had more home runs last season but a worse average, posting a .225/40/98 line with 15 steals, while Hosmer was very similar at .266/25/104.

It’s rare for six-year old cases to be used in arbitration hearings, so Fielder is probably not a great match. However, applying some salary inflation to his $4MM raise suggests the model’s projections for Frazier and Hosmer are probably somewhat reasonable.

We can also check if players going to arbitration following multi-year deals fare better or worse than players who have been going year to year, and the evidence here suggests looking for regular comparables among the year-to-year group is reasonable. The average raise for the ten players coming off multi-year deals was $1.6MM, compared to projected earnings of $1.5MM. This difference is not significant enough to worry about a systematic bias. Therefore, looking for comparables in the year-to-year group makes sense to pin things down more precisely.

Of course, it is rare for power hitters to go year to year at all, so few players emerge as possibilities. No one in the last three years has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility coming off a platform year with 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in. A couple players did so in 2013, including Chase Headley, who received a $5.1MM raise after a .286/31/115 campaign with 17 steals. Hunter Pence only got a $3.4MM raise after his .253/24/104 campaign the year prior. Pence could prove a reasonable comparable for Hosmer’s .266/25/104, which suggests Hosmer’s $5.05MM projected raise is probably high. However, Headley clearly did not do all that much better than Hosmer in his platform year, and both cases are old, so it remains possible that Headley is the better comparable and a $5MM raise is reasonable.

Frazier’s case is tricky in that no one in the last decade has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility with a batting average below .260 and at least 30 home runs. Although Frazier’s batting average was much poorer, I have found that batting average is a somewhat less important criteria than ran home run totals in arbitration, so I believe Frazier’s case is strong. I think Headley’s 60 points of batting average probably roughly offset the nine fewer home runs, and a $5MM raise or slightly higher does seem more believable for Frazier.

Three players in the last decade have gotten $5MM raises as part of multi-year deals—Jose Bautista, Carlos Pena, and Matt Kemp. However, none of them are great comparables, since they all had much better numbers than either Frazier and Hosmer. Additionally, multi-year deals are generally not used in arbitration hearings, although they may be in these instances where comparables are tough to find.

Ultimately, I think both Frazier and Hosmer have good cases to top Fielder’s $4MM raise and either could make a case for being near Headley’s $5.1MM raise. I suspect Hosmer may fall short of his projected $5.05MM raise, and get somewhere closer to $4.5MM—which would put him around $12.75MM. Frazier’s 40 home runs allow for more upside, and his $5.25MM projected raise to $13.5MM seems like a reasonable estimate.

Arbitration Breakdown: Addison Reed

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 9:30am CDT

Modeling arbitration salaries is an inexact science, and sometimes “inexact” is too generous of a description. Setup man Addison Reed’s projected $5.3MM raise to $10.6MM is clearly one of those times. Even worse is that the model was only saved by the “Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player can only beat the record salary for their service class by $1M in the model. The raw model projected a $5.8MM raise. Reed is going to get a far smaller raise than he projected, because the peculiarities of his case confuse the model so much.

Reed’s case is unique because he has 106 career saves but had 40 holds this year in lieu of working as a closer. Further, he struck out 91 batters in 77.2 innings while posting a microscopic 1.97 ERA. Relievers who have a career of closing success behind them tend to out-earn those who have a single good year as closers. So the model gives credit to career save totals, which boosts Reed’s projection significantly.

He is, however, unlikely to get extra credit for those saves in real life. Remove those career saves, and the model projects him for a $3.6MM raise. That’s still large, but much more reasonable.

Reed’s 40 holds this year put him in elite company on their own. In the last decade, only three relievers entering their third year of arbitration eligibility have even accumulated 30 holds—David Robertson in 2014, Tyler Clippard in 2014, and Mike Adams in 2012. They had 33, 33, and 32 holds, respectively, and earned raises of $2.12MM, $1.88MM, and $1.87MM. Their ERAs were strong as well: 2.04, 2.41, and 1.47, as compared with Reed’s 1.97 ERA total. The extra holds suggest Reed’s raise will be worth significantly more than Robertson’s $2.12MM.

That establishes a floor for Reed, but looking for a ceiling is tricky with a lack of relievers amassing 40 holds or anything near it. To find a potential ceiling, we can look to closers who pitched similarly. Among closers who had ERAs under 2.00 like Reed, only one name emerges from the last five years—Aroldis Chapman. He had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, with 116 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Chapman got a $3.27MM raise. Although Reed had seven more holds than Chapman did saves, he had a higher ERA and fewer strikeouts.

Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.

Arbitration Breakdown: Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, Fiers

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2017 at 12:04am CDT

As I discussed in my write-up on Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez, it has been difficult for starting pitchers to top Dontrelle Willis’ arbitration salary of $4.35MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility back in 2006. Dallas Keuchel finally broke that record last year, but otherwise many pitchers have fallen short. In many cases, pitchers have gotten close only to sign multi-year deals to remove themselves from the list of comparables, and other times they have settled for numbers at or just short of Willis’ old record.

My model has trouble with these symbolic barriers, and I have written many articles about why pitchers projected to earn slightly more than $4.35MM would earn slightly less. Mathematical modeling is a science, but it does not pick up on the psychological nuances of a precedent being broken. It remains to be seen whether Keuchel’s new record makes it easier for pitchers to out-earn Willis—and Carlos Martinez this year could be a great case. However, despite Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, and Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers of the Astros all projecting near the $4.35 mark—Odorizzi and McHugh are projected slightly above it—I suspect all four will earn slightly less than their projections because of this barrier.

All four of Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, and Fiers have at least 30 career wins, 500 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and 100 platform year innings. All of them also have relatively average ERAs in the 3’s or 4’s. None won the Cy Young Award last year. There are only four such pitchers who met these criteria to receive one-year arbitration deals as first-year starting pitchers in the last three years, and all four earned in a tight range of $3.63MM to $4.35MM. These include Shelby Miller, Chris Tillman, Mike Minor, and Jake Arrieta. It is difficult to see any of these four pitchers falling out of that range.

Gerrit Cole is projected to earn $4.2MM, but his case is somewhat unique in that he had a relatively weak platform year despite a strong career. He went 7-10 last year, but his 47-30 in his career. His 3.88 last year is worse than his 3.23 career mark. He only threw 116 innings with 98 strikeouts last year, but he has thrown 579.1 innings with 538 strikeouts in his career. Good comparables will include players with high career wins but low platform year wins. Ivan Nova is a reasonable comparable, although he earned just $3.3MM three years ago. He had a 9-6 record with a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 innings, but was 38-20 in his career with 4.04 ERA in 517 innings. Cole’s career numbers are definitely much better than Nova’s, but Nova makes sense as a floor. I suspect Cole will get a raise over Nova’s salary plus some extra money for inflation and will end up in the $3.5MM to $4MM range, probably right in the middle—well short of his arbitration projection of $4.2MM.

Jake Odorizzi went 10-6 last season with a 3.69 ERA in 187.2 innings along with 166 strikeouts. He only has 30 career wins, fewer than the other three guys on this list, but he does have 562 career innings and a 3.75 career ERA, along with 516 strikeouts. His best comparable is probably Doug Fister four years ago, who also won ten games and had a similar ERA at 3.45. Fister also had 30 career wins and a 3.48 ERA in 610 career innings. Fister struck out over a hundred fewer batters in his career at the time he earned $4MM exactly, so adding in some salary inflation should be Odorizzi comfortably in the low 4’s. However, it is hard to find a reason why Odorizzi would top Matt Harvey, David Price, Shelby Miller, or Chris Tillman, all of whom earned between $4.32 and $4.35MM. My model projects Odorizzi at $4.6MM but my gut says $4.2MM.

Collin McHugh had a 4.34 ERA last year and has a 4.13 career ERA, so his run prevention resume is unimpressive compared to the other pitchers in this group and many other potential comparables. However, McHugh won 13 games last year and has won 43 in his career, which is a rare feat. There are only two pitchers in the last six years who have won at least 12 games in their platform years and 40 in their careers while having ERAs above 4.00. These include Ian Kennedy, who earned $4.26MM in 2013, and Tommy Hanson, who earned $3.72MM in the same year. Kennedy’s numbers are largely similar to McHugh’s, but slightly better in many aspects. Hanson was slightly behind McHugh in most categories. Given how stale these comps are, I think McHugh should pass the midpoint of around $4MM, but I also see him struggling to make a case for besting $4.35MM. I think something like $4.1MM or $4.2MM is likely, which is also below his $4.6MM projection.

Michael Fiers 4.48 platform year ERA will definitely dent his case, although his 3.87 career ERA is more impressive. He also has 11 platform year wins and 34 career wins, along with a platform year of 168.2 innings with 134 strikeouts. Jeremy Hellickson’s 2014 case is a great match. He had only one fewer loss, although Hellickson’s 5.17 ERA is definitely much worse than Fiers’ 4.48. His 39 career wins to that point best Fiers, but his 409 career strikeouts fall far below Fiers’ 542. Hellickson earned $3.63MM back in 2014, so with a more impressive platform year ERA plus three years of salary inflation, we would expect Fiers to easily top Hellickson’s salary. It is difficult to find much evidence that Fiers will hit his $4.3MM projection, though, since many of the pitchers in that range have much better cases than he does. I suspect he may be able to get close to $4MM, but probably not top it.

All four of these pitchers are likely to earn a few hundred thousand dollars less than they are projected to earn. My arbitration model tends to miss these sorts of subtleties, and a longstanding symbolic barrier at $4.35MM definitely has skewed salaries in this range down a few hundred thousand dollars. Keuchel’s new record is much higher than Willis’ old record, but several other pitchers will probably need to top $4.35MM before the model results are smooth enough that we can stop shaving money off these projections.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom & Carlos Martinez

By Matt Swartz | January 5, 2017 at 11:22pm CDT

Ever since Dontrelle Willis received $4.35 million in arbitration in 2006, it has been hard for first-time eligible starting pitchers to top his salary. The record stood for ten years, until last year Dallas Keuchel took home $7.25 million following a Cy Young Award-winning season. In the decade since Willis received his record first-year salary for starting pitchers, many pitchers have come extremely close to hitting his $4.35 million or have actually hit it. David Price matched Willis’ $4.35 million in 2012 and Shelby Miller did so last year. Seven other starting pitchers have earned between $4 and $4.35 million in the last decade as well.

Other pitchers who would likely have exceeded Willis’ record received multi-year deals, which usually removes them from consideration when looking for comparables. Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were both coming off Cy Young seasons when they received multi-year deals, and Lance Lynn and Cole Hamels also received multi-year deals and subsequently missed out on breaking the record as well. Many elite starting pitchers are worthwhile candidates for multi-year deals, so it is not surprising that few of them actually receive one-year deals and become comparables. Among pitchers in the last decade with 30 career wins, 450 career innings, career ERAs below 3.50 and at least 100 platform year innings, five of nine signed multi-year deals before reaching agreement on one-year deals for their first year of salary arbitration.

Modeling arbitration salaries is obviously something that requires much precision, but the psychological barrier of $4.35 million is something that emotionless mathematical modeling will miss. As a result, I have written several articles over the years in which I explained that certain pitchers who were projected just over $4.35 million probably would not actually do so. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez may be two such pitchers today, although Martinez is more likely to best that amount.

Jacob deGrom is coming off a mediocre platform year (for arbitration purposes) where he only won seven games amidst throwing 148 innings. Although his ERA was 3.04, lack of counting stats is likely to hurt his arbitration case. His career numbers may offset this—he has 30 career wins and a 2.74 ERA across 479.1 innings and has struck out 492 batters. He also won Rookie of the Year in 2014. His projection is $4.5 million, although I think there is good reason to believe that he will fall short of this.

Carlos Martinez has a much stronger case, and is projected to earn $5.3 million. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings with 174 strikeouts, and has a career 34-21 record with a 3.32 ERA in 492.2 innings with 466 strikeouts. Few pitchers can match his performance, and he may be able to top the old record of $4.35 million, although he will come nowhere near the new record. The peculiarity of Martinez’ case is that is that there are no comparable pitchers with salaries in the range between $4.35 and $7.25, so he will be filling in some empty space if he does exceed the old Willis number.

In the last five years, there have only been five pitchers who had 25 career wins, 400 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and career ERAs under 3.50 who did not sign multi-year deals. All five received between $3.97 and $4.35 million in arbitration. These include Shelby Miller at $4.35 million, Matt Harvey at $4.32 million, Doug Fister and Alex Cobb both at $4 million, and Stephen Strasburg at $3.97 million.

It is difficult to see a good reason why Jacob deGrom would earn above or below this range as a result. Although he had slightly fewer innings than all of them, Doug Fister in 2013 was coming off just 161.2 innings and Alex Cobb was coming off 166.1 innings. Both won 10 games, more than deGrom’s seven, but neither had a Rookie of the Year Award under his belt and deGrom’s career ERA is lower than both of theirs. He also has more strikeouts than either had in their careers at this point as well. As a result, I think he will probably top their $4 million salaries.

I think deGrom will struggle to top Matt Harvey’s $4.32 million from last season, though. Harvey had a better career ERA and a better platform ERA, along with many more platform innings. Something around $4.2 million seems likely for deGrom—below his $4.5 million projection.

Martinez, on the other hand, does seem like a likely candidate to top the five aforementioned starters’ earnings. None of them had more than 13 platform year wins, and Martinez had 16. His 3.04 ERA is in the middle of the pack for the group, but his 195.1 innings total is only bested by Miller. His 34 career wins are bested by Alex Cobb, but exceed the other four starters. His innings and strikeouts are similar to them as well.

All things considered, he has a clear cut case to beat the $4.35 million mark. Comparing him to Shelby Miller alone, he went 16-9 as compared with Miller’s 6-17 in his platform year. His platform year ERA was nearly identical and he threw only 10 less innings but had three more strikeouts than Miller. In his career, he has two more wins than Miller but 14 fewer losses. He also has a relatively similar ERA. Although he has thrown about eighty fewer innings, he has only struck out seventeen fewer batters. Martinez is likely to succeed in asking for a number higher than Miller’s $4.35. But given that the main difference is ten platform year wins, I believe he will probably not get the $5.3 million projection my model estimates. I think something between $4.5 and $5 million is likely for Martinez.

Both of these pitchers are projected for slightly more than they will probably earn. The symbolic barrier at $4.35 million is still a factor despite Keuchel’s new record, which was set up by his 232 innings of 2.48 ERA pitching and the hardware to match. Because of that, the model is likely to miss on starting pitchers near that until that symbolic barrier has been passed enough times.

Affordable Center Field Options For The Tigers

By Steve Adams | January 5, 2017 at 4:56pm CDT

The Tigers are still on the lookout for a center field stopgap, tweets Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, but their preference is to add a low-cost option and spend around $2MM to fill the vacancy. Fenech further notes that the Tigers have opportunities to trade for a center fielder that fits that mold, but adding an affordable veteran via free agency is seemingly the likelier course of action.

Detroit’s in-house candidates in center field include the likes of Tyler Collins and Anthony Gose, each of whom is out of minor league options and will need to break camp with the team or be exposed to waivers. JaCoby Jones represents a younger alternative that has drawn some praise from the organization, but the 24-year-old Jones hasn’t played much center field in the pros. He also hit just .243/.309/.356 in 324 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, so while the Tigers may view him as an option down the line, there’s certainly a case that he could use more development time.

The vast number of corner bats and relievers left on the market have generated more attention than the remaining center-field capable bats, but Detroit GM Al Avila should have plenty options to choose from if his hope is to add a cheap center fielder to handle the position on Opening Day. While some of these players figure to command more than $2MM, that’s not characterized as any sort of hard cap by Fenech, and the sheer number of available assets relative to the number of teams seeking this type of player may suppress salaries.

All that said, here’s a look at some of the available names that could yet fit the bill in Detroit (listed alphabetically, as this isn’t intended to be a ranking of any sort)…

Peter Bourjos: Long considered one of the game’s premier defenders, Bourjos’ defensive ratings have taken a hit following offseason hip surgery following the 2014 campaign. He’s never recreated his brilliant 2011 season — .271/.327/.438 with 12 homers, 22 steals and elite glovework in center — but Bourjos fits the bill as a cost-efficient stopgap that could compete for the regular center field job in Spring Training and act as a fourth outfielder even if he loses out on the gig. Bourjos hit .251/.292/.389 in 383 plate appearances with the Phillies last year and enjoyed a torrid June before suffering a July shoulder injury.
Michael Bourn: The 34-year-old isn’t the elite defender and baserunner that he once was, but he still contributed positive value on the bases in addition to a +4 DRS rating in 2016 (UZR had him a tick below average). Bourn .264/.314/.371 with six homers and 15 steals between the D-backs and Orioles last year, and he’d give the Tigers a left-handed bat to pair with a heavily right-leaning lineup. Then again, with Collins swinging from the left side, a righty bat may be actually be preferable for the Tigers based solely on matchup purposes.
Coco Crisp: To be clear, Crisp has spent much more time in left field than in center over the past two seasons, and with good reason, as his once-excellent defensive ratings have taken a steep nosedive as Crisp has advanced into his upper 30s. The 37-year-old switch-hitter batted .231/.302/.397 between Oakland and Cleveland last season but still showed a blend of pop and speed, hitting 13 homers and swiping 10 bags.
Austin Jackson: No player on the free-agent market is more familiar to the Tigers than Jackson, who starred in Detroit from 2010-14 before somewhat surprisingly being shipped to the Mariners in 2014’s three-team David Price trade. Jackson’s bat has been mostly anemic since that swap (.255/.302/.345), and he ended last season on the shelf after suffering a knee injury that required surgery. That may call into question how capable Jackson is of manning center field. But, Jackson won’t turn 30 years old until Feb. 1, and he made just $5MM with the White Sox last year. A reduced salary seems likely, and there’s a bit of upside here to go along with the obvious familiarity.
Desmond Jennings: Even though he’s seven years younger than Crisp, Jennings comes with similar question marks surrounding his ability to handle center field. The 30-year-old once looked like a star in the making, but his career has been slowed in recent years by a cavalcade of knee and hamstring issues. Jennings had arthroscopic surgery on his knee in 2015 and has also had separate DL stints for a bruised knee and a knee contusion since going under the knife. He’s batted just .222/.295/.347 in 93 games/333 plate appearances in the past two seasons. Like Jackson, he’s still relatively young and is only a couple years removed from being a solid everyday contributor.

There are at least two other hypothetical options in Colby Rasmus and Angel Pagan, though neither spent much time in center in 2016 and it seems likely that they’ll command a good bit more than Fenech’s suggested price range (possibly, over a multi-year term). Detroit would likely need to jettison salary elsewhere in order to make a play for either outfielder.

Additionally, there are a number of veterans that figure to sign minor league deals and could potentially be options for the Tigers. (Although any of the above players could certainly need to settle for a minors pact as well, depending on how the market plays out.) Players like Will Venable, Sam Fuld, Craig Gentry and Drew Stubbs all have recent center field experience that could be of appeal to Detroit.

Top 50 Free Agent Spending By Division

By Connor Byrne | January 2, 2017 at 8:20pm CDT

A new year has begun, which means the meat of the Major League Baseball offseason is in the rear-view mirror. There are still some quality free agents on the board as we inch closer to spring training, but the league has likely handed out its biggest contracts of the winter. This free agent class was weak from the start, as evidenced by the fact that only one player – Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes (four years, $110MM) – has netted a nine-figure contract. No one else has even gotten to $90MM (reliever Aroldis Chapman came close, granted), and nor will they.

Now, using the Top 50 free agent rankings that MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes put together entering the offseason, we’ll take a look at how much each division has spent on the best available players this winter. As of now, only 18 of the top 50 are unsigned. The 32 who have agreed to contracts – including those who accepted the qualifying offer – have combined to secure upward of $1 billion in guarantees.

AL East

3. Aroldis Chapman ($86MM)
13. Wilson Ramos ($12.5MM)
22. Kendrys Morales ($33MM)
40. Matt Holliday ($13MM)
42. Steve Pearce ($12.5MM)

Total = $157MM

A year after the Yankees abstained from signing a single major league free agent, they’ve reclaimed their spot as the AL East’s biggest offseason spenders with the acquisitions of Chapman and Holliday. The Blue Jays have doled out the second-most money in the division thanks to the signings of Morales and Pearce; plus, they could still re-up 12th-ranked free agent Jose Bautista, with whom they’re maintaining dialogue. While the Orioles haven’t picked up anyone from the top 50, that could change if they re-sign the No. 1-rated player left on the market, Mark Trumbo. The luxury tax-minded Red Sox have avoided big splashes via free agency, though they’ve done plenty of work via the trade route. And the low-payroll Rays, having already lured Ramos, remain on the lookout for another bat.

AL Central

2. Edwin Encarnacion ($60MM)
29. Jason Castro ($24.5MM)
50. Derek Holland ($6MM)

Total = $90.5MM

Encarnacion is surprisingly on his way to the Indians, who will finalize his contract this week, on a deal with a far lower guarantee than most expected he’d receive coming into the offseason. The rebuilding Twins signed the division’s second-priciest free agent, catcher/pitch-framing whiz Jason Castro, and the fellow non-contending White Sox brought a reclamation project into the fold in Holland. The AL Central’s other teams, the Tigers and Royals, could compete for playoff spots next season, but they’re trying to tamp down payroll. Thus, it’s no shock that they’ve been inactive in free agency.

AL West

17. Josh Reddick ($52MM)
19. Carlos Gomez ($11.5MM)
28. Andrew Cashner ($10MM)
33. Carlos Beltran ($16MM)
43. Matt Joyce ($11MM)
46. Charlie Morton ($14MM)

Total = $114.5MM

The Texas-based Astros (Reddick, Beltran and Morton) and Rangers (Gomez and Cashner) have essentially monopolized free agent spending in the AL West this offseason. With Joyce in the fold, the A’s are the division’s only other team that has landed a top 50 free agent. The Mariners have a general manager, Jerry Dipoto, who has a penchant for making trades, so they’ve mostly gone that route to acquire talent this winter. The Angels, meanwhile, haven’t been quiet in free agency (Ben Revere, Jesse Chavez and Andrew Bailey) or on the trade market (Cameron Maybin and Danny Espinosa), but they also haven’t reeled in any big fish.

NL East

1. Yoenis Cespedes ($110MM)
7. Jeremy Hellickson ($17.2MM)
18. Neil Walker ($17.2MM)
27. Brad Ziegler ($16MM)
35. Sean Rodriguez ($11.5MM)
41. Bartolo Colon ($12.5MM)
47. Edinson Volquez ($22MM)
48. R.A. Dickey ($8MM)

Total = $214.4MM

While the Mets (Cespedes and Walker) have outspent everyone else in the NL East in free agency, the Braves lead the way with three top 50 additions (Rodriguez, Colon and Dickey). The Marlins have also inked multiple players (Ziegler and Volquez), but they originally had much loftier targets in mind in Chapman and Kenley Jansen. The reigning division champion Nationals haven’t signed any high-profile free agents yet (they did make a blockbuster trade, of course), but that could change if they go for one of the best relievers remaining on the market and/or catcher Matt Wieters. As is the case with the Nats, Atlanta’s in the mix for Wieters, who was MLBTR’s 16th-ranked free agent at the outset of the offseason. Hellickson – who, like Walker, eschewed free agency in favor of the qualifying offer – is the only Phillie on the list.

NL West

4. Justin Turner ($64MM)
5. Kenley Jansen ($80MM)
9. Ian Desmond ($70MM)
11. Mark Melancon ($62MM)
14. Rich Hill ($48MM)

Total = $324MM

Thanks largely to the ultra-rich Dodgers, who re-signed three of their own in Turner, Jansen and Hill, the NL West is easily the highest-spending division in the majors this offseason. The Rockies unexpectedly added Desmond for the division’s second-largest guarantee, and they could make more waves if their ongoing interest in Trumbo leads to a deal. After witnessing far too many second-half bullpen meltdowns last season, including in October, San Francisco unsurprisingly nabbed Melancon. Finally, given their respective states, the Diamondbacks and Padres have only been in the market for scrapheap pickups.

NL Central

6. Dexter Fowler ($82.5MM)
10. Ivan Nova ($26MM)
26. Brett Cecil ($30.5MM)
37. Jon Jay ($8MM)
45. Eric Thames ($16MM)

Total = $163MM

Aside from the Cardinals, who bolstered their roster with Fowler and Cecil, the NL Central has spent modestly this offseason. The reigning World Series champion Cubs lost Fowler, whom they’ll try to replace with a Jay/Albert Almora platoon, while the Pirates brought back Nova after the market didn’t develop to his liking. The Brewers’ only top 50 signing has been the 30-year-old Thames, a first baseman who played in Korea from 2014-16 and put up videogamelike numbers during that span. As for the rebuilding Reds, they’ve completely avoided free agency.

This is an updated version of a Charlie Wilmoth post that ran Dec. 21, 2014.

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