MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | January 29, 2017 at 8:11am CDT

The past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors staff:

MLBTR lost contributor Burke Badenhop, who took a job with the Diamondbacks. The former major league reliever wrote several interesting and insightful pieces for MLBTR dating back to last summer, all of which can be found here. We’re sorry to see Burke go, but we know he’ll do excellent work with the D-backs.
Longtime minor league left-hander Ryan Dennick debuted with an outstanding piece explaining what it was like to receive a major league call-up. That promotion came courtesy of the Reds in 2014.
After Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Michael Saunders and Neftali Feliz signed new contracts, Charlie Wilmoth updated the top 10 free agents remaining on the board. The list, which is based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes assembled entering the winter, lost another member when reliever Greg Holland officially signed with the Rockies on Saturday. Right-hander Jason Hammel is the highest-ranked free agent left.

You Only Get One MLB Debut

By rdennick | January 23, 2017 at 11:16am CDT

It’s been 342 professional appearances and nearly eight calendar years since Ryan Dennick was selected by the Royals out of Tennessee Technological University in 2009. We’re happy to welcome Ryan as the latest author to join our Player’s Perspective series here at MLBTR.

18,910. This is the number of players who have made a Major League debut in the history of the sport. In life, you only get a few true indelible moments. For those nearly 19,000 players, there is no doubt in my mind getting the call to the big leagues is one of them. Every single player that has been lucky enough to beat incredible odds to reach the game’s highest level can tell you in vivid detail where they were, when it happened, and the emotions that came with having a lifelong dream realized. My name is Ryan Dennick. I was a 22nd-round senior sign in the 2009 draft. Six seasons later, I became number 18,360. This was my indelible moment.

On August 31st, 2014, Jonathan Broxton was traded from the Cincinnati Reds to the Milwaukee Brewers. To most, this meant the Reds were shedding a little over $11MM in payroll commitment. For a team that was in desperate need of salary relief, it was a move they had to make. To the players in Triple-A Louisville’s clubhouse, this meant something completely different. There was an open 40-man roster spot.

When news of the trade broke, a bit of a buzz swept through the clubhouse. The move was completely unexpected and guys began to speculate who could fill the vacancy. With rosters in the big leagues expanding from 25 to 40 the next day, that roster spot wouldn’t be vacant very long. Each year, you can take a pretty good guess on who most of the September call-ups are going to be. Players already on the 40-man roster in the upper minors obviously have the inside track to get the call, since no roster move needs to be made. Prospects that require being protected from the Rule 5 draft the upcoming offseason could certainly find themselves in a Major League uniform come September.

Then there are players like me. The hardest call-ups to predict. The non-prospect, roster filler types that had their best statistical seasons. If a spot isn’t open on the 40-man, teams don’t often go out of their way to create an opening for a player who probably doesn’t fit into their long-term plans. Instead, these players will be sent into the offseason with a pat on the back for a job well done, and perhaps an invite to Major League Spring Training the next season. A team’s placement in the standings plays a factor as well. Without the added pressure of staying in contention late in the season, teams out of the race may be more willing to reward these players with a call-up, if a roster spot is available. The Reds were the perfect storm. Sitting with a record of 66-71, they were out of contention. When the Broxton trade happened, a roster spot opened up. Every player in our clubhouse not currently on the 40-man roster was hoping that spot had their name on it.

For a good majority of my minor league pitching career, I was quite mediocre statistically. I was never great, but never horrible either. I had always shown enough promise to warrant filling a minor league roster spot. But in the eyes of those in the front office, I probably didn’t have enough “stuff” to reach the Majors without great minor league numbers to force their hand. Of course, being left-handed helped me stick around, too. I always believed I would reach the Majors one day. Every minor leaguer does. We would be crazy to live the minor league lifestyle year after year if we didn’t think we could reach the carrot on the stick, even if it was just a nibble.

For whatever reason, a player can have a year where everything just goes right. Something just clicks. Pitchers see line drives hit right at fielders. Hitters have more bloopers fall in for hits. That was my 2014 season. I was having easily the best season of my life. Outing after outing, I was building my case to force the Reds to make a decision on me. A move from the starting rotation to the bullpen helped my fastball play up a little more and made my slider a little sharper. Every bit helps. By the end of the season, my 40-man roster spot résumé included an unblemished record, a team-low ERA, the league lead in appearances, and the league lead in holds. Seemingly every break went my way. I was hoping for one more.

On the morning of September 1, I rolled into Louisville Slugger Field a little later than I normally do. I had just finished a long breakfast with my mom and fiancé at one of the local spots in downtown Louisville. I tried all I could to get my mind off what could be waiting for me when I arrived. I failed. Expecting a call-up was an easy way to set yourself up for disappointment so I always tried to operate with the idea that if I was meant to be in the big leagues, somehow I would get there. But the Broxton trade cleared a path. That spot has to go to someone. Why not me?

As I walked through the clubhouse doors, to the left I already saw our manager, Jim Riggleman, in his office letting the members of the 40-man roster know they are getting the call back to the Majors. Since I was one of the last players to arrive in the clubhouse, I set my bag down at my locker and took a quick look around the room looking for unbridled happiness from a player who earned the right to fill the open roster spot.

It doesn’t matter if a player has been to the big leagues before or not, when a teammate gets called up for the first time, it’s a special moment in the clubhouse. Everyone stops what they are doing to offer handshakes and hugs in recognition of the hard work, dedication and sacrifice it takes to reach the game’s highest level. Major League jobs aren’t given away. Every single one of them is earned. However, no such excitement was taking place. I left my locker to head towards the players’ lounge to try to get in a game of spades before heading out to the field to do my throwing program. Right as I turned the corner, I was met by our pitching coach, Ted Power. “Where have you been?! Skip wants to see you! Now!”

When the manager wants to see you, it’s usually for one of three reasons. You’re either going up, going down, or going home. It’s not to chit-chat. As I made my way to Riggleman’s office, I passed another player who was just told he was returning to the big leagues. We didn’t say anything as we passed. He just shot me a wink, as if he already knew what I was about to walk into. “Have a seat, Ryan,” Jim said. I took a seat on the sofa in his office as I wondered if this was it.

“Am I going up? Is he letting me know they decided not to call me up but he’s thanking me for a great season?” My mind raced so fast that I didn’t realize he’d been talking for about ten seconds, and I didn’t hear anything he said. I snapped out of it and zoned back in to catch him say, “So you’re going up to Cincinnati to finish out the season. Do you have any questions?”

I sat in stunned silence, trying to process what has just been said to me. I’d waited my whole life to hear those words and now that I had, I didn’t know what to do. Years of low pay: validated. Years of sub-par housing: validated. Years of cramped 12-hour bus rides: validated. Years of eating more peanut butter and jelly than is recommended in a lifetime: validated. “…No,” I said. I could barely eek that out.

“OK, then get out of here, Jimmy (the trainer) has your itinerary.”

I left his office, and right around the corner was the player I passed on my way in. “Yeah??” he asked, referring to me being called up or not. I nodded my head. “Yeah…” He turned to go into the clubhouse and shouted,“We got a first-timer here!” Handshakes and hugs all around. I just became a 27-year-old rookie.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top 10 Remaining Free Agents

By charliewilmoth | January 22, 2017 at 9:43pm CDT

We last checked in on the top available free agents almost a month ago, and since then, four of our top ten — Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Michael Saunders and Neftali Feliz — have come off the board. Here’s a look at the top ten remaining at this point, with rankings from MLBTR’s November Top 50.

15. Jason Hammel. Hammel’s reported market has been curiously quiet all winter despite a typically solid 2016 season in Chicago. Since the new year, he’s been connected to the Orioles, Rangers and Yankees, although the Orioles look less likely now than they did before adding Trumbo. Hammel also changed agents this winter; one imagines it’s been a frustrating offseason for him.

16. Matt Wieters. Mark Polishuk took a close look at Wieters’ market earlier this weekend. The Braves’ recent signing of Kurt Suzuki would seem to limit Wieters’ options somewhat. A return to the Orioles to share the catcher position with Welington Castillo is a possibility, although, as Mark pointed out, that arrangement doesn’t seem to bode well for Wieters’ chances of landing a big free-agent contract in the future. Wieters has also been connected to the Angels.

21. Mike Napoli. With Edwin Encarnacion and Trumbo off the board, Napoli could be the next 1B/DH domino to fall. A return to the Rangers might be the strongest possibility at this point, and since the Rangers had interest in Trumbo, it might make sense for talks to intensify now that Trumbo is off the board. Texas has also recently been connected to fellow righty slugger Chris Carter, however.

23. Greg Holland. Holland reportedly could pick his team in the next week, capping an offseason in which he’s been connected to nearly everyone. Holland reportedly hopes for a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first year; it’s unclear which teams might consent to that arrangement, given that such a contract would require Holland’s new team to assume most of the risk of his return from injury while limiting its reward.

24. Travis Wood. Reports on Wood’s market have been few and far between this month. One potentially interesting development, though, has been the Rangers’ signing of Tyson Ross. Ross had also been connected to the Cubs, and it appeared possible the Cubs could attempt to re-sign Wood as a backup plan as they search for rotation depth.

30. Brandon Moss. Most of the news surrounding Moss in the past month has connected him to teams that no longer seem especially likely to sign him, such as the Orioles (who re-signed Trumbo), Blue Jays (who re-signed Bautista) and Phillies (who signed Saunders). The Rays have been connected to a variety of veteran hitters this offseason and would seem to be a possibility for Moss, although they might prefer a right-handed hitter. With a number of sluggers still available (including Napoli, Carter, Pedro Alvarez and Mark Reynolds), Moss might have to continue to wait for his rolling stone.

31. Joe Blanton. The veteran righty makes his first appearance on this list after a strong season (2.48 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9) in the Dodgers bullpen. He’s recently been connected to the Rockies, although there have been few reports on his market.

34. Sergio Romo. As with Blanton, there has been little recent reporting on Romo’s destination, although it recently emerged that the Brewers had interest in Blanton before adding Feliz. Feliz and Santiago Casilla recently signing could conceivably lead teams still looking for late-inning help to turn to Romo, however.

38. Fernando Salas. There’s been virtually nothing on Salas this winter, except one report that made him one of an extremely long list of relievers connected to the Marlins’ before that team’s additions of Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. One would think, though, that the 31-year-old would attract some late interest, particularly given his excellent 2016 stretch run with the Mets. Unlike Holland and Romo, he doesn’t have much closing experience, although he was successful in a half-season run as the Cardinals’ closer in 2011.

39. Boone Logan. The veteran lefty is one of several solid southpaw relief options remaining on the open market, including Wood (although it’s unclear whether Wood will start or relieve next year), Jerry Blevins and J.P. Howell. Other lefties (including Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, Marc Rzepczynski, and, of course, Aroldis Chapman, although he’s clearly in a different category than the rest) have done quite well for themselves this winter; it’s unclear whether the crop of remaining lefty free agents will be able to do the same.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | January 22, 2017 at 9:31am CDT

The past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors staff:

Given that the Dodgers don’t have a clear second base solution, I asked readers what the team will do about the position before the 2017 season begins. The majority of voters expect Los Angeles to acquire a second baseman via trade in advance of Opening Day.
With Greg Holland serving as arguably the best reliever remaining in free agency, Jeff Todd polled readers on where the once-elite Royals closer will sign. The Nationals got the most support among the five listed clubs, but the plurality of votes went to the “Other/mystery team” option.
We’re in the midst of arbitration season, leading Jeff to highlight various all-time arb records for relievers.

Arbitration Records: Relief Pitchers

By Jeff Todd | January 17, 2017 at 10:50am CDT

We looked recently at some starting pitcher arbitration records (focusing specifically on one-year agreements), and today we’re turning to their bullpen counterparts. MLBTR contributor and arbitration projection system creator Matt Swartz has mined his data to help identify the top total earnings — and top year-over-year raises — to make this look possible.

Remember that you can keep tabs on all of this year’s arb action with MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker. As things stand, here are the current high-water marks for one-year relief pitcher salaries via arbitration:

Records For Single-Season Salary

First-time eligible: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox, $6.25MM (2009) — Papelbon was consistently and rather completely dominant during his first several years in the league, and was racking up 30+ saves from his first full season in the majors. That gave him unrivaled earning power among early-career relievers. Nobody has really come close to his first-year mark, though Trevor Rosenthal did earn $5.6MM last year. Breaking Papelbon’s record will take a big, multi-year push from a reliever who steps right into a closing role upon reaching the majors — say, Roberto Osuna or Edwin Diaz.
Second-time eligible: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox, $9.35MM (2010) — There he is again. Papelbon racked up 68 innings of 1.85 ERA pitching with 76 strikeouts and 38 saves in 2009, allowing him to build off of an already massive starting point.
Third-time eligible: Zach Britton, Orioles, $11.4MM (2017) — The first blip for Papelbon came in his 2010 season, so we’ve seen several pitchers post higher figures in their third trip through the arb process. Britton’s history 2016 season allowed him to edge past Aroldis Chapman, who held the prior mark with his $11.32MM salary from 2016 — which itself just topped Kenley Jansen ($10.65MM). Those latter two pitchers, of course, have also now easily topped Papelbon’s long-standing record for a free-agent relief contract.
Fourth-time eligible: Jim Johnson, Athletics, $10MM (2014) — This class is limited to Super Two players, so it excludes some notable earners. Britton is certain to break the record of Johnson, who preceded him as an Orioles closer, unless he has a disastrous season that results in a non-tender.

Looking just at the final numbers is interesting, but year-over-year raises are perhaps more informative. Regardless of a player’s starting point, they can catch up fast with a big season or two at the right point in their career.

Records For Year-Over-Year Raises

First raise (second year of arb eligibility): Greg Holland, Royals, $3.575MM raise to $8.25MM total (2015) — A second-straight season of sub-1.50 ERA pitching with over 90 Ks and 45 saves landed Holland this major raise. Jeurys Familia came close to the mark ($3.325MM) and might have passed it had it not been for a serious offseason domestic violence matter that likely compromised his bargaining leverage.
Second raise (third year of arb eligibility): Zach Britton, Orioles, $4.65MM raise to $11.4MM total (2017) — The mark had just been set by Mark Melancon, who took home a $4.25MM raise from the Pirates last winter, when Britton’s amazing 2016 campaign allowed him to easily set a new record. This one will be hard to top for future challengers.
Third raise (fourth year of arb eligibility): Jim Johnson, Athletics, $3.5MM raise to $10MM total (2014) — Britton will easily beat this mark with a repeat of his 2016 season, but that’s hardly a given. He’ll certainly need to have a highly productive year to earn a bigger final bump than did Johnson, who in some ways punched his own ticket out of Baltimore with a 70 1/3 inning, 2.94 ERA, 50-save effort in 2013 that drove his earnings up to the point that the club dumped basically dumped his salary in an offseason trade to the Athletics.

Poll: What Will Dodgers Do About Second Base?

By Connor Byrne | January 15, 2017 at 7:10pm CDT

Having re-signed top free agents Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner and Rich Hill this winter, the Dodgers – winners of four straight NL West titles – once again look like World Series contenders as the 2017 campaign nears. One glaring weakness on the roster is at second base, where Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have been on a well-documented quest to improve since the Cubs eliminated them from the NLCS last October.

Los Angeles’ search for help at the keystone has centered on the Twins’ Brian Dozier, who established himself as a very good player from 2013-15 and then performed like a star last year. Dozier slugged 42 home runs, becoming just the fourth second baseman in league history to swat 40-plus in a season, while also providing value on the bases and in the field.

With the Twins in a rebuild, it makes sense that the Dodgers have pursued Dozier, but they haven’t been able to pry him from Minnesota. It doesn’t appear they will, either, as the two sides are at an “impasse” because LA has refused to add prospects Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart to its Jose De Leon-fronted offer.

With a Dozier pickup seemingly unlikely, the Dodgers could look to other quality second basemen potentially on the trade market in the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Rays’ Logan Forsythe. Aside from their status as above-average players, those two share other similarities with Dozier: They’re under contract for two more years at affordable rates (Kinsler could demand an extension to waive his no-trade clause, though), meaning they won’t be easy to acquire, and they’re right-handed hitters. The latter point should be of considerable intrigue to the Dodgers, who had the majors’ worst offense against left-handed pitchers last season. All of Dozier, Kinsler and Forsythe hold their own versus southpaws and would greatly help the Dodgers’ cause in that regard.

If the Dodgers aren’t able to swing a trade for a high-impact second baseman, they’ll be left to pick from scraps in free agency and/or pin their hopes on uninspiring in-house options. The top name on the open market is Chase Utley, who has spent the past season-plus with the Dodgers. The longtime Phillie was fine in 2016, hitting .252/.319/.396 with 14 home runs and accounting for a league-average fWAR (2.0) in 565 plate appearances. His age (38) is a concern, however, as is the fact that lefty pitchers have confounded him in back-to-back seasons (.170/.245/.271 in a combined 212 PAs). Nevertheless, cognizant that they might not be able to improve at second via trade, the Dodgers have interest in re-signing Utley.

Whether it’s Utley, another free agent or a trade acquisition, it does seem as if an outsider will be the Dodgers’ primary second baseman in 2017. Their current options – Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Charlie Culberson, Jose Miguel Fernandez and backup catcher Austin Barnes – don’t carry much appeal as regulars. It’s still possible, granted, that the Dodgers will roll with that that group to at least begin the season. What do you think they’ll do?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Who will be the Dodgers' Opening Day second baseman?

A trade acquisition: Dozier, Kinsler, Forsythe, etc. 55.59% (7,758 votes)

A free agent pickup: Utley or someone else 24.48% (3,416 votes)

A player currently in the organization 19.94% (2,783 votes)

Total Votes: 13,957

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | January 15, 2017 at 9:03am CDT

The past week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors staff:

Prior to Friday’s arbitration filing deadline, Steve Adams looked at the record-high salaries earned through the arb process by starting pitchers (based on service time). As it turned out, Jake Arrieta’s $15.6375MM agreement with the Cubs set a new benchmark for starters in their third year of arbitration eligibility.
Matt Swartz continued his Arbitration Breakdown series by looking at the cases of Orioles closer Zach Britton and Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. Matt’s $11.4MM projection for Britton’s 2017 salary ended up exactly matching Britton’s actual agreement with Baltimore. Arenado, projected by Matt to earn $13.1MM, ended up signing a two-year, $29.5MM deal with Colorado.
Luis Valbuena is still looking for a new team, and Connor Byrne speculates on some possible landing spots and breaks down the infielder’s pros and cons in a Free Agent Profile.

Arbitration Breakdown: Zach Britton

By Matt Swartz | January 12, 2017 at 8:22pm CDT

Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2017 projections are available right here.

Zach Britton had a phenomenal 2016 campaign for the Orioles, logging 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA over 67 innings while striking out 74 batters. As a result, the dominant sinkerballer is projected for a $4.65MM raise, from $6.75MM to $11.4MM. It is rare to find a season as dominant as Britton’s 2016, so it is not surprising that he is projected to get a raise bigger than Mark Melancon’s record $4.25MM raise last year for a third-time-eligible reliever.

Melancon saved 51 games in his platform season, four more than Britton, but his 2.23 ERA is far less impressive than Britton’s 0.54. His 62 punchouts also fell shy of Britton’s 74. Therefore, his $4.25MM raise is a plausible floor for Britton already. Britton besting this by $400K, as the model expects, seems reasonable.

Jim Johnson in 2013 got a $3.88MM raise, the second highest for a third time eligible reliever behind Melancon. He had 51 saves and a 2.49 ERA, so he also meets the criteria of logging a few more saves than Britton while posting a decidedly worse ERA.

However, since Melancon did save four more games, it is worth looking to see if guys with low ERAs but slightly fewer saves did any worse than Melancon did. Looking for guys with ERAs under 2 that were closers, no names emerge in the last five years other than Aroldis Chapman, who had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA, but only got a $3.27MM raise. Clearly, every aspect of Britton’s case is much stronger than was Chapman’s, so this is not too concerning.

Heath Bell in 2011 is probably a stale comparable, although he did have a sub-2 ERA (he posted a 1.93 ERA) and he matched Britton’s 47 saves exactly. His $3.5MM raise would almost certainly be a floor for Britton as well.

Putting it all together, there is little reason to use any comparable other than Melancon here. All other potential third-time eligible relievers got smaller raises and had worse performances. Britton should easily clear Melancon’s $4.25MM number, and the model’s $4.65MM projected raise seems as reasonable as anything. Because Baltimore is now moving to a “file-and-trial” approach, though, the stakes are raised as the sides try to work out an agreement on the heels of Britton’s historic season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Records: Starting Pitchers

By Steve Adams | January 9, 2017 at 3:48pm CDT

It’s been more than five years now since we broke down record-setting arbitration salaries on a position-by-position basis here at MLBTR. When we last ran through this exercise, it was April 2011, and Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM salary from 2006 was the highest a first-time arbitration starter had ever received (although that record shockingly held up until last year). Jered Weaver’s $7.37MM sum from 2011 was the largest sum ever earned by a second-time arb pitcher, and the third-time record was held by Big Z, Carlos Zambrano, who pocketed a $12.4MM paycheck back in 2007.

We could see one of these starting-pitcher records fall in 2017 — you can follow along with the arb class using MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker — and there could be others to drop among relievers and position players (we’ll get to those later on). For at least the short-term, here’s a look at the current high-water marks for starting pitcher salaries via arbitration:

First-time eligible: Dallas Keuchel, Astros, $7.25MM (2016) — Keuchel rose from fringe fifth starter to a ground-ball juggernaut with pristine command and plenty of missed bats, earning a surprise Cy Young Award prior to his first trip through arbitration. The 2015 campaign saw Keuchel toss a league-leading 232 innings with a league-high 20 wins, 216 strikeouts and two shutouts. It was his second straight 200-inning season, and his rise to elite status landed him a record payday. Obviously, his 2016 campaign fell short of those heights by a wide margin, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz still projects him at $9.5MM this coming year.
Second-time eligible: Jake Arrieta, Cubs, $10.7MM (2016) — Like Keuchel, Arrieta was coming off a meteoric rise to the ranks of the elite. Many detractors cited a bizarre narrative that Arrieta had “one good half” prior to his Cy Young honors, but he posted a 2.26 ERA through his first 437 1/3 innings with the Cubs upon being traded over from Baltimore. That included a ridiculous 1.77 ERA, 22 wins and 236 strikeouts in 229 innings in 2015. Arrieta turned in a comical 0.86 ERA over his final 20 starts in ’15, allowing just 14 runs with a 147-to-27 K/BB ratio in 147 innings.
Third-time eligible: Max Scherzer, Tigers, $15.525MM (2014) — There’s a pattern developing here, as Scherzer’s record-setting $15.525MM payday came on the heels of his first Cy Young Award back in 2013. That season saw Scherzer jump from durable mid-rotation arm to a shutdown ace, as he tossed 214 1/3 innings with a 2.90 ERA, 21 wins and a hefty 240 strikeouts. That proved to be the first of two dominant seasons with the Tigers, which served as a launching pad for Scherzer’s then-record-setting $210MM contract with the Nationals in free agency. Of course, that free-agent record has since been broken by Scherzer’s former teammate and the man who holds the record for fourth-time eligible (Super Two) pitchers…
Fourth-time eligible: David Price, Tigers, $19.75MM (2015) — Price’s 2012 Cy Young season sent his arbitration prices soaring, and by the time he’d reached his fourth and final trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, he was working off a $14MM base salary. The 2014 season wasn’t Price’s best in terms of run prevention, but he turned in a 3.26 ERA over an MLB-leading 248 1/3 innings with 15 wins and a league-best 271 strikeouts as well, all of which combined to help seal his record payday.

Most of these records appear to be pretty safe this season, as none of the first-time arbitration-eligible pitchers is coming off a season quite like Keuchel’s 2015 campaign. The previous $4.35MM record would’ve been threatened by any of Tanner Roark, Carlos Martinez, Jake Odorizzi, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh or Mike Fiers. However, Roark’s $6.1MM projection is tops among first-time-eligible players, and that number falls quite a ways shy of Keuchel’s record. Similarly, there are no second- or fourth-time pitchers within striking distance of those impressive records.

However, Arrieta has the chance to enter next offseason holding two of these records, as his $16.8MM projection from Swartz is considerably higher than Scherzer’s existing record. The entire scenario would be rendered moot in the perhaps unlikely event that the Cubs and agent Scott Boras broker a new long-term deal with Arrieta rather than testing the open market a year from now, of course. But, Arrieta would need to fall considerably shy of his projection in order to miss the opportunity to establish a new benchmark for third-time-eligible starting pitchers.

As an aside: Some may wonder why Arrieta, at 2.145 days of service time following the 2013 season, was not a Super Two player and only went to arbitration three times. While Arrieta fell within the requisite top 22 percent of his service class in terms of overall service time, a player must also spend 86 days on the Major League roster in the preceding season in order to qualify as a Super Two. Arrieta accumulated just 79 days of Major League service time that season, thus causing him to fall shy of Super Two designation.

Free Agent Profile: Luis Valbuena

By Connor Byrne | January 8, 2017 at 9:58pm CDT

Luis Valbuena entered free agency as arguably the second-best third baseman available, trailing only Justin Turner (by a significant margin, granted). Turner came off the board a couple weeks ago when he unsurprisingly re-signed with the Dodgers, but Valbuena remains without a deal. What’s more, there haven’t been many rumblings connecting the 31-year-old to potential employers this offseason.

Pros/Strengths

It took a few seasons for Valbuena to turn into a quality major leaguer, but he’s now coming off a four-year stretch (divided between the Cubs and Astros) in which he batted a respectable .237/.333/.428 and accounted for 8.4 fWAR in 1,773 plate appearances. Since 2014, his breakout offensive season, the lefty-swinging Valbuena has handled right-handed pitchers with a .253/.344/.473 line in 1,068 trips to the plate.

Before undergoing season-ending hamstring surgery last August, Valbuena was on track for a career year with a .260/.357/.459 line in 342 PAs. He was also amid his third straight season with an above-average isolated power number (.186 – the league mean in 2016 was .162). Valbuena’s patient, too, having posted double-digit walk rates in each season since 2012. He helped his cause last year in collecting free passes at career-high 12.9 percent clip, which ranked 19th in the majors among those with at least 300 PAs and well above the 8.2 percent average. Further, Valbuena swung at pitches outside the zone a personal-best 23.1 percent of the time, which was good for 21st in the league.

Cons/Weaknesses

While Valbuena has been terrific against righties, his bat has been virtually unplayable at times versus same-handed pitchers. In 530 career PAs, he has hit a meager .221/.310/.356 against lefties – including a lackluster .206/.299/.335 over the past three seasons. Along with his platoon issues at the plate, Valbuena isn’t a threat on the bases, which is particularly unfortunate when considering his high-OBP ways against righties. It also helps explain his history of recording low batting averages despite avoiding egregious strikeout totals. Better, faster baserunners take advantage of reaching, but Valbuena has never swiped more than two bags in a year, and he hasn’t exceeded the one-steal plateau since 2009.

Defensively, Valbuena isn’t a major liability at third, but he hasn’t been able to approach the effectiveness he showed there from 2012-13. That 1,700-plus-inning sample saw Valbuena rack up 11 Defensive Runs Saved and combine for a 21.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. He has registered minus-12 DRS to go with a minus-11.7 UZR in almost 2,500 innings since, though most of the DRS damage (minus-10) came in 2014.

Valbuena’s aforementioned hamstring surgery could also qualify as a negative, but there’s no word on whether that’s affecting his market.

Background

A native of Venezuela, Valbuena joined the Mariners organization back in 2002 as an undrafted free agent. The former middle infielder ended up debuting in the majors in 2008 with Seattle, which traded him to the Indians during the ensuing offseason. That deal also involved the Mets and included 11 other players (to name a few, Jason Vargas, Franklin Gutierrez and Joe Smith). Cleveland eventually sent Valbuena to Toronto for cash considerations in November 2011, but the Blue Jays lost him on waivers to the Cubs in advance of the 2012 season. That proved fruitful for the Cubs, who got a couple good years from Valbuena before shipping him and righty Dan Straily to the Astros in January 2015 for center fielder and 2016 World Series champion Dexter Fowler.

In his major league career, Valbuena has raked in $14,275,200 in earnings, according to Baseball Reference. He’s a client of Elite Sports Group.

Market

“Several” teams have expressed interest in Valbuena this offseason, his agent, Scott Schneider, said last month. The only reported suitors are the Yankees and Rays. Neither team looks like an obvious fit, though, given the options they have on hand at third, first (Valbuena’s occasional position since 2015) and designated hitter.

Clubs that could still stand to upgrade in the corner infield include the Braves, Red Sox, Athletics and Rangers. Atlanta might be the best choice, as Valbuena and right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would have the potential to make for a formidable offensive platoon. Boston has the luxury tax threshold to consider, meanwhile, and has already picked up first baseman Mitch Moreland in free agency. The Sox also seem content to roll with Pablo Sandoval and Brock Holt at third. Oakland is focused on adding a righty bat, which would rule out Valbuena, and Texas is set at third with the great Adrian Beltre. The Rangers still need first base help, but they’re zeroing in on Mike Napoli.

Expected Contract

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes forecast a two-year, $14MM deal for Valbuena entering the offseason. That still looks reasonable, but settling for less might be in the cards because so few teams look like clear matches for Valbuena.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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