MLBTR Originals

Free Agent Profile: Chris Carter

By Connor Byrne | January 2, 2017 at 5:54pm CDT

Although first baseman Chris Carter wasn’t scheduled to hit the open market entering the offseason, that changed when the Brewers designated the 30-year-old for assignment Nov. 29. Milwaukee then shopped Carter around the majors, but after the club was unable to find any trade partners willing to take his projected $8.1MM salary for 2017, it cut him loose Dec. 2. A month later, Carter remains among a group of powerful but flawed hitters still sitting without contracts.

Pros/Strengths

Few provide more thump than the right-handed Carter, who co-led the National League with 41 home runs last season, paced the NL in isolated power (.277) and finished eighth in the majors in barrels (56, per Statcast). Since 2013, Carter’s first full major league campaign, only five players (Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, the now-retired David Ortiz and Mike Trout) have combined for more homers than his 131, while just seven (the aforementioned names as well as Giancarlo Stanton and Khris Davis) have outdone his .251 ISO.

Carter also brings above-average patience, having registered double-digit walk rates in three of his four full seasons. He took a free pass 11.8 percent of the time in 2016, which was right in line with his career mark (11.6) and easily superior to the league mean (8.2). Further, if Carter’s on your roster, you can count on penciling him in nearly every day (he has racked up three 145-game seasons, including a career-high 160 last year) and he isn’t overly vulnerable against either right- or left-handed pitchers. While Carter has done better versus southpaws (.221/.337/.459 in 840 plate appearances), his production against righties (.217/.303/.466 in 1,805 PAs) has certainly been respectable.

Cons/Weaknesses

If you’re a fan of hitters who put the ball in play regularly, you’re probably not particularly bullish on Carter, who has posted strikeout percentages in the low-30s and contact rates in the mid-60s in each of his major league seasons. All told, Carter has recorded league worsts in strikeout and contact rates (33.2 and 64.9, respectively) since 2013, and he ended up last in those two categories in 2016. As a result, Carter is the owner of an ugly .218 career batting average, which has heavily detracted from the value of his power and patience combination and led to a subpar on-base percentage (.314).

Elsewhere, the lumbering Carter doesn’t offer positives either on the base paths or in the field. He was a bottom 20 baserunner last season in the estimation of FanGraphs’ UBR and BsR metrics, while both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating regarded him as one of the worst first basemen in the league.

Background

Carter is a Redwood City, Calif., native who grew up in Las Vegas, where he still resides during the offseason. When the White Sox selected Carter in the 15th round of the 2005 draft, he was a third base prospect. Carter has never lined up at the hot corner in the majors, though, and he wasn’t long for the ChiSox organization. They traded him to Arizona for outfielder Carlos Quentin in December 2007, and the Diamondbacks quickly flipped him (along with Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, among others) to the Athletics a week and a half later for right-hander Dan Haren. Carter remained with the A’s until February 2013, when they sent him and two others (catcher Max Stassi and righty Brad Peacock) to the Astros for infielder Jed Lowrie and reliever Fernando Rodriguez.

In his time with the A’s, Astros and Brewers, Carter – who’s a client of the Dave Stewart-run Sports Management Partners – has made $7.679MM, according to Baseball Reference.

Market

Carter is currently taking a backseat to fellow right-handed free agent sluggers in Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli, though multiple teams have made inquiries, Stewart said a couple weeks ago. The Orioles, Rangers and Rays were reportedly interested in adding Carter as of last month, and all three still have holes at first base and/or designated hitter. Carter would be a fit with any of those clubs, then, while staying in the NL and joining the Rockies is also a possibility. Carter taking his prodigious power to Colorado’s Coors Field is fun to think about, but heading to the AL – where he’d be able to DH – might be the better move.

Expected Contract

It has been almost exactly one year since Carter inked a $2.5MM deal with the Brewers last Jan. 6. That came on the heels of a 24-homer season in which he failed to clear the Mendoza line with a .199 average in 460 trips to the plate. Thanks to his bounce-back 2016, Carter is more appealing now than he was last winter, though another one-year contract appears likely. Carter’s next deal should be richer than his previous one, but given that teams didn’t want him at his projected arbitration salary, he’ll hardly break the bank.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Todd Frazier

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2017 at 1:38pm CDT

There’s no denying that the White Sox are engaged in an aggressive rebuilding plan. After all, the organization has now traded away two of its best, established MLB assets in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and is said to be engaged in talks to do the same with Jose Quintana. If those affordable, controllable players can be had, then surely it stands to reason that more expensive, shorter-term assets are also on the table.

While players like David Robertson and Melky Cabrera make good sense as trade chips, perhaps no single player on the ChiSox roster carries a “trade me” sign quite as visible as that of third baseman Todd Frazier. Unlike Robertson, he’s entering the final year of contract control. And unlike Cabrera — who’s owed $15MM in the final year of his deal — Frazier is still projects to be useful in the field.

Frazier did take a big step back in the eyes of defensive metrics last year after consistently rating as a plus gloveman at third. And his .225/.302/.464 batting line represented his worst offensive output since a down 2013 season. But Frazier is young enough (31 in February) to think that he can regain his lost step at third, and perhaps its unwise to put too much stock in one year’s worth of defensive ratings given his strong track record. Also, he still swatted forty home runs in 2016 — rather an impressive total from a player capable of playing the hot corner — and boosted his walk rate to a career-high 9.6% (though his K rate also crept up). Frazier still runs well, too, as he swiped 15 bags in 2016.

Really, if you’re looking for a solid everyday player who could bounce back to being an All-Star-level performer, there aren’t many better bets than Frazier. His .236 BABIP makes him an obvious candidate for some positive regression, though it’s fair to note that he earned that mark to some extent by putting the ball in the air more than ever before (48.7%) and posting-career worst line-drive (15.7%) and soft contact (20.7%) rates. With Frazier showing greater selectivity than ever and maintaining his career swinging-strike rates, there’s hope that he can boost his OBP while retaining much of the power he has achieved by gunning for the long ball.

Even if he remains much the same hitter he was in 2016, Frazier would look to be a more defensively useful version of Mark Trumbo. Frazier will only require a single-season commitment, which is appealing. And he could also allow a new acquiring team to recoup a draft pick after the season, if he proves himself worthy of a qualifying offer.

Still, there’s probably a reason that it has mostly been crickets on the demand side for Frazier. In particular, there just isn’t that much demand for third basemen around the game. The Dodgers were rumored to have interest, but ended up bringing back top-available free agent Justin Turner. And the open market still includes at least two useful options at the hot corner in Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe. Then, there’s the fact that MLBTR projects him to earn a hefty $13.5MM, which would make a dent on any team’s balance sheet.

Under the circumstances, the Sox could take Frazier into the year and hope he becomes a summer trade chip (or, perhaps, a QO candidate after the season). Holding onto him is hardly an unfathomable outcome if there’s truly no serious interest, particularly since there doesn’t appear to be a major salary-trimming imperative behind the team’s sell-off. Indeed, many of the teams discussed below seem rather unlikely to offer enough of a return to force the White Sox’ hand. But several organizations that might not give prospects and take on $13.5MM or so in salary right now may well end up having a need in the middle of the season.

It still makes eminent sense for the South Siders to explore all avenues for a trade this winter, but a deal probably isn’t as likely as it might seem at first glance. Let’s take a look at some hypothetical suitors (listed in alphabetical order):

[Team links to MLB Depth Charts]

Athletics — Sure, Oakland has Ryon Healy at third, and he’s more than entitled to a full-season run after his impressive debut. But he has never been viewed as much of a defensive player, and could simply be shifted over to first to make way for Frazier. The A’s have already shown a somewhat surprising amount of payroll availability in pursuing Edwin Encarnacion; adding Frazier could have nearly the same overall impact at a lesser cost (at least, in dollars) because of the defensive upgrade he’d bring.

Braves — While Atlanta seems amenable to going with Adonis Garcia at third, there’s little reason to expect much out of him. The organization can also plan to bump Sean Rodriguez to the hot corner if and when Ozzie Albies rises to the majors. And it’s fair to wonder at what point the Braves will stop taking on 2017 salary. Still, after expending some resources for near-term improvements, perhaps pursuing Frazier would be a finishing touch that could make Atlanta a plausible contender (with a few good breaks).

Cardinals — St. Louis was reportedly lingering around on both Turner and Encarnacion, suggesting that the club is intrigued at the prospect of boosting its infield productivity. Like those possibilities, adding Frazier would likely mean trading another player (Jhonny Peralta, Kolten Wong, or Jedd Gyorko) to create space. And it’s not clear whether the Cards would see enough upside in Frazier to go through with all that. Still, it’s a reasonably plausible landing spot.

Dodgers — Any continued interest depends upon whether the Dodgers would consider playing Turner at second base. He has seen less and less time there over the years, and didn’t make a single appearance at second in 2016, so there’s no particular reason to think that Los Angeles would move him to make way for Frazier. Adding a true second baseman still seems much more likely.

Giants — Eduardo Nunez remains the odds-on favorite to man third, in concert with Connor Gillaspie. But if San Francisco feels it’s better able to improve its offensive production with Frazier than by adding a corner outfielder, with Nunez turning back into a quality utilityman, then perhaps the Giants could make for an interesting fit.

Orioles — The O’s are said to be looking at sluggers, and may prefer one that plays the outfield, but there still could be a fit here. Frazier could spell Manny Machado at third and Chris Davis at first while lining up as the DH. If shortstop J.J. Hardy needs a rest, is hurt, or isn’t effective, then Machado could slide in for him and Frazier could return to full-time duty at the hot corner. It’s not a perfect fit, but Frazier could be a more appealing target for Baltimore than the remaining open-market options.

Rangers — Texas is in the market for a first baseman and/or DH, and might not hate the idea of adding someone who could fill in for Adrian Beltre at the hot corner at times. But there are plenty of hitters in free agency, and the Rangers have other infielders who could man third, so this doesn’t feel terribly likely as things stand.

Red Sox — Boston has given signals that its offseason is largely in the books, but a pivot can’t be ruled out. As things stand, the organization appears to be putting an awful lot of trust in Pablo Sandoval. There’s room for Frazier’s salary, perhaps, after dealing Clay Buchholz. He could split time between first and third (with Mitch Moreland), allowing Hanley Ramirez to be a full-time DH while increasing the Sox’ platoon opportunities.

Rockies — Somewhat like the Orioles, the Rockies could potentially have interest in Frazier to fill a different need. If Colorado trades an outfielder and moves Ian Desmond to the outfield, it would need a regular first baseman. While Frazier’s true utility is somewhat wasted there, that’s perhaps less true than it is in Desmond’s case.

Yankees — Chase Headley has underwhelmed with the bat, so perhaps Frazier could mix in with him and first baseman Greg Bird to inject some pop and increase the Yanks’ overall versatility. But New York still has other needs, and Frazier would represent a pretty significant cost to function in that kind of capacity. Unless Headley were to be dealt, the fit is something of a stretch.

Others — You could argue for the Pirates, especially if Jung Ho Kang is lost, though perhaps corresponding moves would be needed to make it even plausible that the Bucs would take on that much salary (particularly with David Freese and Josh Bell already on hand). The Indians might have made sense were it not for the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion, but Frazier seems too costly and uncertain to justify relegating Jose Ramirez to corner outfield/utility duties. It’s hard to see the Rays coughing up the cash (and talent) needed to land Frazier, though he’d be a possible first base/DH candidate in Tampa Bay. The Marlins need a righty bat, but re-upped Martin Prado to play third and seem to like Justin Bour as at least a semi-regular at first; without a DH slot, there likely isn’t any kind of match there. Likewise, you could argue for the Mets to add Frazier (at least assuming they deal one or more outfielders); he could share time with Lucas Duda at first and otherwise play third, in theory, but this seems rather implausible unless/until New York trades one or more outfielders and the team has reason to believe that David Wright won’t be able to play in 2017. It’s at least somewhat more possible to imagine the Mariners or Blue Jays taking a look, but those also feel like iffy fits. Neither needs a third baseman or DH, and while they could stand to add Frazier’s pop at first, the presences of Dan Vogelbach and Justin Smoak reduce the utility of adding a fairly expensive piece like Frazier.

3 Remaining Needs: AL West

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2017 at 11:24am CDT

To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.

So far, we’ve checked in on the AL Central, NL West, NL East, AL East, and NL Central. To wrap things up, let’s stop in on the AL West:

Rangers

First Baseman/DH: The Rangers make obvious sense for a first base/DH addition after watching Mitch Moreland and Carlos Beltran depart via free agency. Texas can utilize Joey Gallo and/or Jurickson Profar in those roles, but neither has hit to expectations in the majors. The club has been tied frequently to Mike Napoli, but there are other options on the open market as well. Relatedly, the Rangers will need to decide what to do with both Gallo and Profar in the near term, as both appear to have uncertain futures in Texas.
Starting Pitcher: Though the Rangers already slotted in Andrew Cashner after declining a club option over Derek Holland, the team also lost Colby Lewis from last year’s staff. He is among the veterans still available in free agency, presumably on short-term arrangements, and Texas could certainly stand to bolster the back of its rotation. At present. A.J. Griffin seems likely to take the fifth slot, though a few upper-level youngsters could also factor in. Texas would do well at least to enhance the overall depth here, at a minimum.
Sorting out the bullpen: Texas has a variety of interesting arms available to take closing duties, with last year’s ninth-inning man Sam Dyson returning. But the club has been rumored to be dangling some of its righty arms in trade, and could conceivably deal from what is something of a surplus to improve elsewhere (or even just to bolster its prospect pool).

Mariners

Starter: Seattle’s first three rotation spots are set. Behind that group, though, the club is currently set to sort through Ariel Miranda, Nathan Karns, Chris Heston, Rob Whalen, Brad Mills, and Christian Bergman in camp. Adding another established arm isn’t perhaps an outright necessity, but it would go a long way to firming up the roster.
First Base/Corner Outfield mix: Currently, the M’s project to utilize some sort of platoon involving youngster Dan Vogelbach (a lefty hitter) and Danny Valencia (a righty). But the latter could also factor into the outfield mix while also providing a reserve at third. Meanwhile, the corner outfield situation includes a whole variety of options, including lefty Seth Smith, who is said to be on the trade block. Adding a righty slugger from the still-stocked free-agent market while thinning the corner outfield herd could make good sense for Seattle.
Utility Infielder: With Jean Segura locked in at shortstop and the durable Robinson Cano set to return at second, there’s not a huge need in the middle infield. But projected reserve Shawn O’Malley has never hit much in the upper minors or in his brief MLB time, so at least adding some camp competition would be worthwhile.

Astros

Left-handed Reliever: Entering the winter, Houston was said to be looking for a southpaw to pair with Tony Sipp, who disappointed after returning via free agency last winter. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, and Travis Wood (who’d also represent some rotation depth) are among the open-market options. Houston could also continue exploring the trade market; the club is said to have checked in on Justin Wilson of the Tigers.
Starter: Houston has a five-man rotation mix in place after already adding Charlie Morton early in the offseason, and possesses some quality young arms as well, but the team could certainly stand to improve its starting staff as a way of rounding out an aggressive winter. The club has been tied to pitchers such as Jose Quintana, Danny Duffy, and Yordano Ventura, while the free-agent market still includes Jason Hammel and a few bounceback options. Even if a larger strike doesn’t prove achievable, adding a minor-league free agent could make sense.
Another bat? There are limits to the number of true needs for some organizations, and that’s particularly true of Houston, which has accounted for most of its roster holes and touts plenty of versatility on its roster. But the club has looked for ways to add yet more talent in a variety of ways, and reportedly stayed involved on Edwin Encarnacion right up to his eventual signing. It would rate as a surprise at this point, but the ’Stros could conceivably add a power bat at first base (bumping Yulieski Gurriel into the corner outfield mix) or acquire a center fielder (shifting George Springer back to a corner spot) if an opportunity arises.

Angels

Closer: While Los Angeles has options for the ninth inning — Huston Street could re-take the reins if he can return to form, Cam Bedrosian has the arm for the job, and Andrew Bailey is back after spending time as the closer late last year — that doesn’t mean the organization should rest on its laurels. Several experienced late-inning arms remain available in free agency, potentially creating a solid value opportunity and adding what could be an open camp competition for the closer’s job.
Left-handed Reliever: Jose Alvarez has turned in two solid campaigns as a lefty setup man, but he’s hardly an overwhelming pitcher. Adding another lefty — some possible options are noted above — might provide a nice boost to the late-inning mix while allowing the club to use Alvarez for matchups earlier in a game.
Rotation Depth: Signing Jesse Chavez likely rounds out the Halos’ staff, but that doesn’t mean there’s adequate depth. That’s especially true given the health questions surrounding Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, and Matt Shoemaker. While pitchers like Alex Meyer, Nate Smith, Chris Jones and perhaps Manny Banuelos and John Lamb provide upper-level depth, it wouldn’t hurt to plug in a veteran on a minor-league deal (or perhaps even aim higher, if a good value can be found on a pitcher such as Hammel).

Athletics

Center Fielder: The A’s currently project to utilize some combination of Brett Eibner and Jake Smolinski up the middle, making for one of the least promising center-field situations in baseball. At a minimum, adding a veteran, left-handed hitter (such as Michael Bourn) would allow the team to set up a platoon. There are also some bounceback players on the open market (including Austin Jackson and Desmond Jennings), and the A’s could still pursue a more impactful asset via trade.
First Base: It came as something of a surprise when Oakland reached agreement on an arb deal with Yonder Alonso, who had seemed a non-tender candidate. But the club has still looked to improve at first, most notably chasing Encarnacion, despite also possessing some other internal possibilities. Stephen Vogt is one, though he could serve as the DH and still appear at times behind the dish; Mark Canha is back as a righty bat; and Ryon Healy may profile as a first bagger if he can’t handle the hot corner defensively. With so many sluggers still floating around in free agency, Oakland could add some thump while deepening its overall roster. As an alternative, the A’s could add a third baseman (Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe remain available) while bumping Healy into the first base/DH mix.
Veteran Starter: While the A’s are said to be high on their rather expansive mix of young starters, the current staff is short on MLB experience outside of staff ace Sonny Gray, who will be looking to return to form in 2017. There’s not a need, strictly speaking, for innings, but Oakland has had success in the past with short-term starters, and a targeted strike could pay dividends — by improving the team’s near-term outlook, but also by adding depth to account for a hypothetical mid-season trade of Gray and reducing the need to press less-established arms into major-league service.

Exploring January Free Agent Signings

By Jeff Todd and charliewilmoth | January 2, 2017 at 8:27am CDT

The month of January isn’t always a big month for free agent signings, but it can be at times. In 2016, in particular, a wide variety of high-profile free agents had yet to sign when the calendar flipped. As things stand entering 2017, players like Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Jason Hammel, Matt Wieters, Michael Saunders, Mike Napoli, Greg Holland, Travis Wood, and Neftali Feliz all remain available despite entering the winter listed among the top 25 players on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top 50 free agents. Other unsigned players include Brandon Moss, Luis Valbuena, Nick Hundley, Chase Utley, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, Kurt Suzuki, and Colby Rasmus, along with a variety of relievers (e.g., Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Fernando Salas, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Drew Storen).

To see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last six offseasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains at least some drama, but the 2015-16 open-market period still seems like an outlier (which likely occurred due to the sheer volume of high-end talent that was available).

2016: There was a lot of meat left on the free-agent bone this time last year. Plenty of money ended up changing hands over the month of January, with Chris Davis landing seven years and $161MM from the Orioles while Justin Upton got six years and $132.75MM plus an opt-out from the Tigers. Big, multi-year deals were also awarded to Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM over five years with opt-out), Yoenis Cespedes ($75MM over three years with opt-out), Alex Gordon ($72MM over four years), and Ian Kennedy ($70MM over five years). Less significant, but still-substantial guarantees were struck by Denard Span ($31MM), Gerardo Parra ($27.5MM), Howie Kendrick ($20MM), Antonio Bastardo ($12MM), and Doug Fister ($7MM).
2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
2014: This was the other recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero’s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.

An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Davis, Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Chen, Kennedy, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Span, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Wieters and Holland.

The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Ian Desmond, Kendrick, Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. Trumbo and Bautista are the only two remaining QO decliners on this year’s market, but it’s not hard to see how the draft compensation may continue to impact their markets.

This time around, negotiations over the new CBA may well have played a role in the timing at the top of the market. That likely slowed things down for Edwin Encarnacion, who is now one of several notable, veteran bats who have signed — helping to explain why so many lumbering sluggers still remain available. With three top-end closers and a variety of other relievers also chasing big money this winter, it’s perhaps not surprising to see a fair bit of bullpen help still floating around, too.

This post is adapted and updated from a post by Charlie Wilmoth that was originally published on January 2, 2016.

Free Agent Profile: Neftali Feliz

By charliewilmoth | January 1, 2017 at 10:13pm CDT

With a variety of top closers now off the market, teams hunting for relievers this January can choose from a number of somewhat less expensive targets. One of the best of those is righty Neftali Feliz, who’s available after a solid season with the Pirates.

Pros/Strengths

At just 28, Feliz is young and has a solid recent performance record, a rare combination of traits on the free agent market. Last season, Feliz significantly boosted his status after joining Pittsburgh’s pitching factory, posting a 3.52 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, all solid numbers worthy of late-inning work. He also threw harder than he had in years, with his 96.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranking as his best since 2011, the year before he moved into the Rangers’ rotation and then had an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. And that very high MPH figure might actually understate Feliz’s future potential to throw gas, since his velocity increased throughout last season, averaging closer to 98 MPH by year’s end.

Also, while it’s been a long time since Feliz pitched a full season as a closer, he has 99 career saves and could conceivably be a closing option for a rebuilding team that has an opportunity available. The right situation could be a boon for both Feliz and for his new team. Feliz could later market himself as a closer and is certainly young enough and talented enough to get another multi-year deal after his next contract is over. And his new team could get a short-term option at closer and the opportunity to deal him before their contract with him expires.

Cons/Weaknesses

Feliz has a lengthy medical history that includes not only Tommy John surgery in 2012, but also arm soreness in 2014 and an abscess in his side in 2015. He also missed time late in the 2016 season to arm discomfort. He failed to reestablish his velocity for several years after Tommy John and had limited success in 2014 and 2015, resulting in his being designated for assignment by the Rangers and non-tendered by the Tigers.

Of course, it’s normal for a player to struggle somewhat as he attempts to return from Tommy John surgery. But even in 2016, when Feliz appeared to be fully healthy until September, there were a few speed bumps. Feliz allowed his fair share of fly balls, resulting in ten home runs allowed over 53 2/3 innings. That ten-homer total reflected a very high HR/FB% of 19.2%, and that’s likely to come down in 2017. But Feliz’s home run tendencies (probably partially a result of his heavy dependence on his four-seam fastball, as well as his unspectacular command) might mean he’s not a great fit in a homer-friendly ballpark — although, of course, he did just fine for several seasons in homer-happy Arlington.

Background

Feliz signed with the Braves out of Azua, Dominican Republic in 2005, then headed to the Rangers in 2007 in the Mark Teixeira deal. He won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2010. His wife, Karina, gave birth to a daughter, Nerali, in 2010. His second child, Neftali Jr., was born in 2015.

Market

Feliz’s market has been somewhat quiet thus far, although that isn’t necessarily a surprise — through the first two weeks of December, the relief market revolved around elite closers like Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen. It’s been less than three weeks since Jansen (the last of that group remaining on the market) came to terms, and the holiday season likely slowed activity during some of that time. It emerged last month that the Marlins viewed Feliz as something of a backup plan if they couldn’t land Jansen; they ultimately signed a very different type of reliever, Brad Ziegler, instead, but the way they saw Feliz might say something about the way he’s valued throughout the industry. A month ago, Feliz was also connected to the Nationals, a match that still makes a degree of sense. Any number of other teams could also enter the fray given the right price, since Feliz could conceivably be used in a variety of roles. The Pirates’ signing of Daniel Hudson, as well as the significant commitment Feliz might require, make a return to Pittsburgh unlikely.

Expected contract

MLBTR predicts Feliz’s status as one of the better setup men available this winter will help the BTI Sports client land a three-year, $18MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

3 Remaining Needs: NL Central

By charliewilmoth | January 1, 2017 at 7:48pm CDT

So far, we’ve checked in on the AL Central, NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the NL Central, a division featuring the World Series-winning Cubs:

Chicago Cubs

Negotiate with Jake Arrieta. The Cubs appear set to try to negotiate a deal with their star righty this month after the two sides swap arbitration figures. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted this week, it’s hard to assess the Cubs’ chances of extending Arrieta, or what kind of money he should ultimately get after a good, but still disappointing, 2016 season. Negotiations between the Cubs and Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, will be an important story line in Wrigleyville over the next few weeks. And even if there’s no extension, expect to see at least a couple interesting Arrieta-related headlines — he’s projected to make $16.8MM through arbitration in 2017, so even arriving at a one-year salary will be a relatively high-stakes endeavor.
Keep an eye out for starting pitching help. The Cubs’ roster is extraordinarily talented and deep, so much of what we’ve heard about the team since their swap of Jorge Soler for Wade Davis and their signing of Koji Uehara has pertained to potential role players. One name who’s repeatedly come up has been that of Tyson Ross, who (as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in a recent chat) would be an interesting fit with the Cubs in that the team’s depth would give him the luxury of taking his time returning from shoulder injury, then providing rotation help once fully healthy. In any case, the Cubs could still perhaps use a bit more starting pitching, although options like Rob Zastryzny, Aaron Brooks and Jake Buchanan do give them a variety of palatable spot starters.
Consider adding a bit more left-handed relief. The Cubs have a heavily right-handed bullpen (with veteran Brian Duensing, waiver claim David Rollins, Rule 5 pick Caleb Smith and Jack Leathersich topping their current list of lefty relief options), so they could consider adding a lefty as a late-offseason move. They’ve been connected to Justin Wilson of the Tigers, and they could also make a move to bump lefty Mike Montgomery from the rotation back to the bullpen. Of course, the idea that lefty relief is a serious need for the Cubs is already nit-picking — they do already have a sufficient quantity of lefties, and their excellent group of righty relievers somewhat mitigates the need for southpaws, particularly since newcomer Uehara is very tough on lefty batters.

Cincinnati Reds

Add pitching help. The Reds haven’t signed a single player to a big-league deal to this point in the offseason, which isn’t necessarily surprising — as a rebuilding club, they shouldn’t feel an urgent need to make short-term upgrades, and they might get better deals on helpful players later in the winter anyway. Last week, MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Jeff Todd looked at big-league free agent pitchers the Reds could pursue, focusing in large part on the Reds’ open closer role, which could provide an opportunity both for interested free agents (who might be able to establish or reestablish themselves as closers in Cincinnati) and for the team (which might be able to deal relievers they sign this winter at next year’s deadline).
Find opportunities for young players. The Reds’ projected 25-man roster still includes a variety of veterans. The team hasn’t been able to strike deals this offseason, though, in part because those veterans either have no-trade protection or aren’t in high demand. For 2017, that leaves them in somewhat of an awkward position, particularly in their middle infield, where they have prospects Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera ready for playing time and veterans Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart blocking them. Phillips, of course, is one of those veterans with a no-trade clause. The Reds might not make any moves before the start of the season to deal with their middle-infield issue, but they’ll have to deal with it one way or another, perhaps by getting creative with various infielders’ playing time. Peraza could also occasionally play center field.
Acquire more catching depth. The Reds have identified catching depth as an area of need — Devin Mesoraco has struggled to stay healthy in the past two seasons, and the team doesn’t have enough help behind Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart. Rule 5 pick Stuart Turner is another possibility, but he has a limited offensive track record and has never played above Double-A.

Milwaukee Brewers

Add power. Assessing what the Brewers perceive their needs to be at this point is difficult, since they’ve been relatively quiet since the Winter Meetings and they don’t figure to contend in 2017. One area where they might have an opportunity, though, is in adding power to their lineup. First base is mostly open for them after they non-tendered Chris Carter, and their string of veteran trades leaves them with what should be plenty of money available to add a bat. The team did sign Eric Thames for a relatively substantial $16MM guarantee earlier in the offseason, and Thames currently tops their depth chart at first. Thames, though, can also play outfield, and the team’s relative uncertainty in the corners (where they have trade candidate Ryan Braun and the interesting but still unproven Domingo Santana) could clear space for Thames to move around. Meanwhile, the glut of power bats remaining on the free agent market (including Carter and many others) could give the Brewers an opportunity to add someone who could potentially contribute in 2017 and possibly fetch a prospect in a trade next summer.
Continue evaluating Braun’s market. The Brewers and Dodgers reportedly discussed a deal last summer that would have sent Braun to Los Angeles for a package that included Yasiel Puig, but Braun’s market has been relatively quiet this winter. Now, the same market conditions mentioned in the previous bullet might have an impact on Braun’s market. There have also been whispers that Braun’s large contract and PED history might be problems as well. Regardless, with much of the Brewers’ previous core already having departed, there’s little reason for the Brewers not to investigate potential trades involving Braun.
Create competition. The Brewers likely won’t be competitive in 2017, but they’ve already acquired a fair amount of interesting talent in their rebuild, and they have plenty of flexibility heading into the near future. With that in mind, they’ve added a number of marginal players this offseason, including catcher Jett Bandy, infielder Eric Sogard, and pitchers Tommy Milone, Ryan Webb and Andy Oliver. The moves that landed those players weren’t glamorous, but they’ll help give the Brewers depth they’ll need to get through 162 games, while also limiting the possibility of disaster should players further up the depth chart struggle.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Consider continuing to add starting pitching. The Pirates made a big move to steady a wobbly rotation when they re-signed Ivan Nova late last month. Still, the team could use a bit more pitching help, as it currently figures to be heavily reliant on youngsters behind Gerrit Cole and Nova. The Pirates have been connected to White Sox star Jose Quintana, who certainly would be a big step forward. Beyond that, GM Neal Huntington has been outwardly noncommittal about the possibility of further additions, noting that he is open to bringing in more pitching but adding that “we like the group as is,” via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Balance the bullpen. With the recent addition of Daniel Hudson to a group that already included Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, Juan Nicasio, Antonio Bastardo, A.J. Schugel, Jared Hughes and others, the Pirates have what appears to be a decent group of relievers. That group, however, is heavily left-handed, with Watson, Rivero, Bastardo, Wade LeBlanc and Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb all pitching from the left side. Watson’s name has come up in trade rumors this offseason, and either he or Bastardo look like reasonable candidates to be dealt, partially to get value from them but also partially to clear space for more right-handed relief help.
Figure out whether Andrew McCutchen stays or goes. Following the collapse of trade negotiations with the Nationals, Huntington said the Pirates were likely to keep their star center fielder. Rumblings surrounding McCutchen have continued, albeit in more muted form, over the past several weeks, however. There’s also the question of what position he’ll play in 2017, as there have been various reports about the likelihood that the Pirates will move him to a corner after he posted poor defensive numbers in center in 2016.

St. Louis Cardinals

Figure out who’s on second. The latest Cardinals-related rumors have connected them to Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. While Dozier would undoubtedly help almost any team, though, most indications have been that the Cardinals’ interest in striking a deal with Minnesota isn’t particularly strong. Cardinals brass have also strongly praised Kolten Wong, who is signed through 2020 with an option for 2021 and who currently appears unlikely to be traded elsewhere.
Consider extending Carlos Martinez. As of October, both Martinez and the Cardinals reportedly had interest in extension, and as Jeff noted last week, deal discussions could happen in the coming weeks as the two sides discuss Martinez’s pending arbitration case. The 25-year-old’s youth, blistering fastball and strong performances the last two seasons figure to make him a player well worth keeping, if the right deal can be found.
Consider adding another outfielder. The Cardinals have a perfectly good starting outfield of Randal Grichuk, Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty. But as Viva El Birdos’ Ben Markham recently pointed out, the team’s fourth outfielder, Tommy Pham, has struggled to stay healthy, and the team doesn’t have great depth beyond that. As Markham notes, Brandon Moss is probably the best outfielder available who could conceivably sign as a backup, and Moss is a lefty hitter who could complement righties Grichuk and Piscotty in the corners.

Poll: Free Agent Relievers

By Connor Byrne | January 1, 2017 at 1:08pm CDT

Before they inked mega-deals earlier this offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon understandably dominated headlines as the unquestioned best relievers available in free agency. No one remaining on the market will land a contract even approaching theirs (Melancon’s on the low end at a whopping $62MM), but there are still several proven late-game commodities who haven’t signed yet.

Melancon is taking over as the Giants’ closer, a role previously held by a pair of current free agents in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. The 36-year-old Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.

No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.

Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.

Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.

While these five aren’t in the Chapman-Jansen-Melancon class, all could serve as boons to their next teams’ bullpens. In your opinion, which member of the group is the most desirable target? Or, instead of this quintet, maybe there’s another free agent reliever you’d rather have.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Who's The Best Reliever Left On the Open Market?

Greg Holland 53.63% (6,049 votes)

Neftali Feliz 13.72% (1,547 votes)

Joe Blanton 12.87% (1,452 votes)

Sergio Romo 10.54% (1,189 votes)

Santiago Casilla 4.72% (532 votes)

Other 4.52% (510 votes)

Total Votes: 11,279

3 Remaining Needs: American League Central

By Connor Byrne | January 1, 2017 at 10:15am CDT

So far, we’ve checked in on the NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the AL Central, a division which features the reigning league champions…

Cleveland Indians

Outfield Depth: The Indians are fine on paper with Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer representing their primary outfield options, but there’s uncertainty surrounding Brantley. The star-caliber performer from 2014-15 missed all but 11 games last season because of a shoulder injury, and while he and the team are optimistic about his status, “better safe than sorry” applies. With that in mind, the Indians have been connected to free agents like Rajai Davis, a member of the Tribe in 2016, and Michael Saunders. Davis would be the more realistic acquisition, but Cleveland’s payroll limitations are standing in the way of a deal. Whether it’s Davis or someone else, though, having another outfielder – one who’s more established than Abraham Almonte – would be nice.
Left-Handed Reliever: Again, after winning the Edwin Encarnacion sweepstakes, the Indians might not have the financial freedom to do much else. Nevertheless, they have been in the market for a left-handed reliever, perhaps to take some pressure off Andrew Miller late in games. While Miller is arguably the best reliever in the sport, the Indians will have to monitor his workload to some degree next season after their liberal usage of him last year.
Utility Infielder: As you can probably tell, the Indians aren’t exactly loaded with weaknesses; hence the “need” to add competition for a reserve infield spot. After a strong season at Triple-A Columbus, Erick Gonzalez is the front-runner to serve as a backup to the Indians’ high-caliber group of infield starters. Michael Martinez could push for a spot, but he has been a woeful hitter in his major league career (.197/.241/.266 in 578 plate appearances). Signing a cheap free agent to vie for a role might not be a bad idea, then.

Detroit Tigers

Cut Payroll: General manager Al Avila made it clear at the outset of the offseason that the Tigers, who exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2016, need to scale back their spending. Trading on-the-block outfielder J.D. Martinez and his $11.75MM salary would help in that regard, but it would subtract a key piece from what should be a playoff-contending roster. It would be far more beneficial for Detroit’s chances in 2017 to somehow jettison at least one of Anibal Sanchez ($21MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2018) or Mike Pelfrey ($8MM). Teams have checked in on the two right-handers this offseason, but it’s unclear if serious talks have developed.
Center Field: While the Tigers shed money earlier in the offseason in trading Cameron Maybin to the Angels, doing so left them devoid of even a somewhat proven center fielder. In the wake of Maybin’s exit, Avila said last month he’s seeking center field help “on every front,” as his top in-house choices for next season are Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones and Anthony Gose. Free agency offers some veterans who shouldn’t cost much in ex-Tiger Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos and Desmond Jennings, among others, though Avila acknowledged that acquiring a center fielder via trade is a possibility.
Figure Out The Bullpen: This is mostly in reference to left-handed reliever Justin Wilson, who has drawn significant interest on the trade market this offseason. As is the case with Martinez, though, shipping Wilson out would damage Detroit’s chances of contending in 2017. Plus, Wilson isn’t even particularly expensive (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts a $2.7MM arbitration award). The Tigers are also listening to offers for right-hander Shane Greene, but they’re better positioned to absorb losing him with righties like Francisco Rodriguez, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and minor league destroyer Joe Jimenez in the fold. On the other hand, the only non-Justin Wilson southpaw reliever on their projected 25-man roster is Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf.

Kansas City Royals

Bullpen: Like Cleveland and Detroit, Kansas City is another AL Central team dealing with payroll constraints. The Royals aren’t eager to tear things down, though, which would be an easy route to take for a team with so many integral players entering contract years. One of those cogs, closer Wade Davis, is now gone. GM Dayton Moore sent him to the Cubs for a major league contributor – and one with high upside – in outfielder Jorge Soler, which saved the Royals $7MM. That was a sound move by the Royals, but they now have a gaping hole in their bullpen because of it. As a result, they’re searching for a late-game complement to Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, with longtime Royals and now-free agents Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar on the radar.
Starting Pitcher: Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee combined for 314 1/3 innings last year – albeit not overly effective ones – and are now out of the organization. The Royals’ depth has taken a hit, then, and they’re on track to rely on Matt Strahm – who was brilliant in relief in 2016 – and 2015 Tommy John surgery recipient Jason Vargas to step into their starting five alongside Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. That quintet has the potential to succeed, but the club should protect against injuries and/or underwhelming performances with an outside acquisition who’s an upgrade over the likes of Chris Young and Mike Minor. Jason Hammel is reportedly an option if his price comes down enough, but that seems like a long shot. If so, there are several other veteran starters on the open market who will come at lesser costs should the Royals look to bolster their rotation depth.
Middle Infielder: With Whit Merrifield and 2016 third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert around, the Royals might be able to address this concern from within. That would be ideal for an organization whose other middle infielders scuffled last season. Shortstop Alcides Escobar (.261/.292/.350 in 682 PAs), second baseman Raul Mondesi (.185/.231/.281 in 149 PAs) and backup Christian Colon (.231/.294/.293 in 161 PAs) brought nothing to the table at the plate in 2016.

Chicago White Sox

Keep Dealing Veterans: GM Rick Hahn said last summer that the White Sox’s direction for 2017 would become obvious early in the offseason. True to his word, Hahn shipped out ace Chris Sale and outfielder Adam Eaton for a cavalcade of touted prospects at the Winter Meetings, thereby announcing that Chicago’s in a rebuild. Sale and Eaton probably aren’t going to be the last known commodities to leave the organization via trade in the coming months, either, as front-line starter Jose Quintana, third baseman Todd Frazier, first baseman Jose Abreu, closer David Robertson and outfielder Melky Cabrera are also available.
Outfield: The likes of Avisail Garcia, Charlie Tilson and Jason Coats will compete for starting roles alongside Cabrera in left, while waiver claim Rymer Liriano (.220/.289/.266 in his 121-PA major league debut last season) is set to serve as depth. That’s an unspectacular collection of players, clearly, and even the 24-year-old Tilson – the youngest of the bunch – merely projects as a reserve or below-average regular, according to FanGraphs prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. Given the state of the franchise, the White Sox don’t need to make a splash with a big-time outfield pickup, but finding someone to supplement their current group via free agency would be sensible. Adding an inexpensive outfield bat this offseason might serve a purpose around next summer’s trade deadline, where the White Sox could flip that player for another prospect(s) if he shows well.
Catcher: The White Sox aren’t exactly in great shape behind the plate with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith as their top options at the moment. The 24-year-old Narvaez has more upside than Smith, 28, though the former doesn’t have an overly promising track record as either a hitter or pitch framer. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions, but the White Sox could benefit from Matt Wieters’ decision. If he signs with the Braves, for instance, the Sox would be wise to at least inquire about their former backstop, Atlanta’s Tyler Flowers. On the other hand, the Nationals could shop one of their well-regarded veteran framers – Derek Norris or Jose Lobaton – if they sign Wieters. White Sox pitchers have lost a lot of strikes lately because of subpar framing, so finding a backstop capable of aiding young starters like Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez would be logical.

Minnesota Twins

Decide Brian Dozier’s Fate: The Twins’ star second baseman has been on the block throughout the offseason, and a resolution finally looks imminent. New Twins front office bosses Derek Falvey (chief baseball officer) and Thad Levine (general manager) have asked teams to submit their final offers for Dozier and will soon determine whether to trade him. Minnesota is arguably in a win-win position with Dozier, as it’ll either land a high-end prospect (or more) for him or retain one of the sport’s best second baseman for at least a bit longer. The Brewers were in a similar position last year with catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who didn’t go anywhere in the offseason despite myriad rumors. Milwaukee then shipped him to Texas during the summer for a prospect bounty. Dozier, like Lucroy last winter, has two years of team control left at a palatable price tag ($15MM combined).
Starting Pitching: The Twins have asked teams for controllable starting pitching in their Dozier talks, and they might secure a potential long-term piece in Jose De Leon if a deal with the Dodgers materializes. Otherwise, the Twins have shown interest this offseason in low-cost veterans like Clayton Richard, who re-signed with the Padres, and Justin Masterson. The club has four veteran starters in Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, and acquiring a fifth could lead to all three of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia receiving further seasoning at the Triple-A level.
Bullpen: Levine revealed a couple weeks ago that Minnesota is searching for experienced late-game arms, and there are a slew of those available in free agency. Even though the Twins aren’t contenders, offering a veteran a prominent eighth- or ninth-inning role could entice one to join the club. The rebuilding Twins could then shop that player as the season progresses if he fares nicely.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | January 1, 2017 at 8:25am CDT

Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

Before first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion agreed to join the Indians, Jeff Todd asked readers to predict where he would sign. The plurality of voters accurately predicted Cleveland would be Encarnacion’s destination.
A transaction-filled December was winding down at the time, so I polled readers on which move looks like the most questionable decision of the month. The MLBTR audience doesn’t seem too bullish on the Nationals’ choice to trade a significant prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton.
Two NL East center fielders, the Phillies’ Odubel Herrera and the Braves’ Ender Inciarte, signed extensions earlier this month. With that in mind, Jeff compared their deals and wondered which team got the superior value. According to the majority of voters, the Braves did better.
Given that the Reds haven’t signed a major league free agent this offseason, Steve Adams and Jeff detailed 10 available players – all relievers – who are logical fits to end up in Cincinnati.
After Encarnacion and right-hander Ivan Nova exited the open market, I updated the top 10 free agents left on the board. The list is based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes assembled entering the winter. Slugger Mark Trumbo is likely poised to sign the richest contract of the remaining free agent class.
Mark Polishuk highlighted 10 teams that will soon have decisions to make on managers and/or front office bosses who are entering contract years.
Cubs ace-caliber right-hander Jake Arrieta is going into a contract year, so Jeff looked at what it might cost the World Series champions to extend him this offseason. Most voters don’t expect a deal to come together.
Unlike Arrieta, Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez is a few years from free agency. Nevertheless, Jeff tried to nail down how much it might cost St. Louis to extend the first-time arbitration-eligible 25-year-old.
Steve listed seven possible landing spots for free agent catcher Matt Wieters, whom voters expect to sign with the Braves.
Speaking of catchers, Steve pondered whether Sandy Leon, Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez stands the best chance to serve as the Red Sox’s long-term answer behind the plate.
Many free agents are fresh off less-than-stellar years, though Jeff made cases for 20 players – 10 hitters and pitchers apiece – who could be in line for bounce-back 2017 campaigns.
While it seems Ian Desmond will man first base for the Rockies next season, that isn’t necessarily etched in stone. Thus, Jeff delved into several other possibilities – including Trumbo.
The top two unsigned left-handed relievers are Jerry Blevins and Boone Logan, leading Jeff to contemplate which is the more appealing option.
Capping off a busy week for Jeff, he detailed each NL West team’s three biggest remaining needs as Spring Training inches closer. Mark did the same with the AL East, while I handled the NL East.

3 Remaining Needs: National League East

By Connor Byrne | December 31, 2016 at 8:34pm CDT

In the first two editions of this series, Jeff Todd broke down the NL West and Mark Polishuk examined the AL East. Now a look at where the NL East’s five teams stand as the calendar flips:

Washington Nationals

Bullpen: With Mark Melancon gone, the Nationals are currently projected to rely on Shawn Kelley (11 career saves) as their closer. Based on his output the past couple seasons, Kelley is worthy of the role, but there are durability concerns with the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Kelley has never thrown more than the 58 frames he tossed last season; more alarmingly, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who, per a study done by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum, comes with an elevated risk to eventually need another procedure. Even without Kelley’s injury history, acquiring relief help is in order. Washington got a combined 242 2/3 innings last season from Melancon, Yusmeiro Petit, Felipe Rivero, Matt Belisle, Jonathan Papelbon, Reynaldo Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski. Not a single one of them is a member of the organization anymore. Therefore, it would make sense to add at least one more veteran to the likes of Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez. The club already tried to re-sign Melancon and reel in Kenley Jansen, but those attempts failed. Even with those two off the board, free agency is hardly bereft of options. In the event Washington decides to stick with in-house choices, it has a couple intriguing youngsters in Koda Glover and Trevor Gott.
Infield Depth: The Nationals’ infield depth took a hit with the loss of Danny Espinosa, and current free agent Stephen Drew could also be in another uniform next season. Either re-upping Drew, which is a possibility, or signing another veteran would give the team more proven insurance than Wilmer Difo (77 career plate appearances) behind second baseman Daniel Murphy, shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Murphy is capable of playing first base if Ryan Zimmerman endures another poor year or suffers an injury in 2017, but that would leave the team wanting at the keystone.
Rotation Depth: In trading Lopez and Lucas Giolito to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, the Nats subtracted some of their starting pitching depth. That’s somewhat concerning given that starters Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross are coming off injury-plagued years, which perhaps increases the need to add rotation insurance behind those two, Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez. A.J. Cole and Austin Voth might suffice thereafter, but there’s very little of intrigue beyond them (Double-A prospect Erick Fedde could crack the major leagues sometime next season, granted). The Nationals had an established veteran starter in camp last year in Bronson Arroyo, who ended up missing 2016 because of injuries, and could look for a similar depth option prior to next season.

New York Mets

Outfield: There are only two corner outfield spots, yet the Mets arguably have four starting-caliber players on hand in Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce. Cespedes isn’t going anywhere, obviously, and Conforto’s place on the roster appears secure. The writing is on the wall, then, for either Granderson or Bruce (very likely the latter) to exit the organization via trade by next season. The Mets have been reluctant to deal Bruce without getting anything useful in return, but they might have to settle for dumping his salary in order to clear their corner outfield logjam and free up spending room. In doing so, New York would still face uncertainty in center field. Juan Lagares has fallen off since a strong 2014 showing that led the Mets to sign him to a four-year extension with $23MM in guarantees. Cespedes and Granderson also have experience in center, but neither is an ideal fit there. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen has come up as a trade possibility, but he was a defensive nightmare last season and the Mets aren’t actively looking to acquire him (or any other center fielder), anyway.
Right-Handed Reliever: The Mets are going to lose closer Jeurys Familia to at least a month-long suspension, which will leave the team with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles as its go-to choices to preserve late leads. Mindful of that, general manager Sandy Alderson has checked in on the likes of Wade Davis (before the Royals traded him to the Cubs), Brad Brach (Orioles) and Alex Colome (Rays) on the trade front this winter, but nothing has materialized. White Sox closer David Robertson represents another possible acquisition, though he’d be a costly pickup. There are still appealing names on the open market, where Greg Holland, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz and 2016 Met Fernando Salas are among those without contracts.
Left-Handed Reliever: New York has three lefty relievers on its projected 25-man roster in Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker and Sean Gilmartin, but none had encouraging 2016 campaigns (in fairness to Edgin, he was on the rebound from 2015 Tommy John surgery and finished the year well). Jerry Blevins was terrific last season, but he’s now a free agent and, along with Boone Logan, one of the top two southpaw setup men left in free agency. The Mets have shown interest in each this offseason, but payroll limitations have prevented them from signing either (presumably, they’ve also stood in the way of securing right-handed help).

Miami Marlins

Starting Pitcher: Forced to forge ahead without the late, great Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have made a couple unexciting additions to their rotation this winter with the signings of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. They now have a full starting five on paper with those two joining Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley and Tom Koehler, but it’s not the most confidence-inspiring group. With that in mind, Miami is still in the market for a starter, though it’s seemingly limiting itself to low-cost depth types. Luckily for the Marlins, there are plenty of those left in free agency.
First Base: As long as they’re facing a right-handed pitcher, the Marlins are in fine shape at first base with Justin Bour. But, in an admittedly small sample size of 110 major league plate appearances, the lefty-swinging Bour has struggled mightily against southpaw hurlers (.223/.273/.291, no home runs). Thus, it would behoove the Fish to find a better platoon partner for Bour than the penciled-in Miguel Rojas – although a righty, he has posted a woeful .184/.225/.272 line versus lefties in 122 PAs. Any of Dae-ho Lee, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Plouffe, Adam Rosales or 2016 Marlin Chris Johnson could be realistic targets via free agency. Miami hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Johnson, who – despite a subpar 2016 – has historically held his own against lefties.
Left-Handed Reliever: It’s not a must for the Marlins to find a southpaw reliever, as their most prominent righty options – A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Kyle Barraclough and Junichi Tazawa – are capable of getting all hitters out. Nevertheless, it would be nice for the club to have more than one left-handed reliever on its 40-man roster. As of now, only Hunter Cervenka is in the fold, though same-sided batters hit a paltry .198/.306/.318 against the then-rookie last season. Signing a free agent like Javier Lopez could make sense; even though the longtime Giant’s coming off a season to forget, he has a lengthy track record of success preventing runs and would like to remain close to his Georgia home.

Atlanta Braves

Third Base: Their interest in Brian Dozier notwithstanding, the Braves appear to have a respectable offensive platoon lined up at second base with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. On the other side of the diamond, finding a complement to right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would be beneficial. Garcia has hit an underwhelming .262/.293/.407 in 152 trips to the plate against righties, while reserve Chase d’Arnaud (also a righty) hasn’t done any better (.218/.278/.278 in 279 PAs). Free agent Luis Valbuena is a potential fit, but he’s an upgrade over Garcia in general and would warrant an everyday role. Otherwise, the aforementioned Stephen Drew – a left-handed hitter and Georgia native – could be a reasonable free agent target to pair with Garcia.
Bullpen: As it stands, the Braves’ sole 30-something reliever is closer Jim Johnson, with Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol serving as only semi-established options. While it’s quite possible the Braves are comfortable with a mostly young bullpen that will also include Mauricio Cabrera and Jose Ramirez, among others, signing one of the many available veterans on a short-term deal would have a chance to pay dividends over the long haul. For example, the Braves could take a similar approach to last year’s Padres, who bought low on Fernando Rodney, got a few good months out of him and flipped him for a prospect prior to the trade deadline. That’s assuming the Braves aren’t contenders next year, of course.
Catcher: With Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker in the equation, this arguably isn’t a pressing short-term need for a rebuilding club, but free agent backstop Matt Wieters is nonetheless on Atlanta’s radar. It’s debatable how much of an upgrade (if at all) the ex-Georgia Tech star would be over Flowers, though. Wieters, unlike Flowers, is not a well-regarded pitch framer, and the longtime Oriole is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. If Atlanta doesn’t land the switch-hitting Wieters, it’ll likely be content to roll with Flowers and Recker next season.

Philadelphia Phillies

Corner Outfield: The Phillies’ most proven corner outfield bat belongs to Howie Kendrick, who has played 1,100 games at second base compared to just 114 in left field and is coming off a below-average offensive year. While the rebuilding club could simply utilize Kendrick and younger players like Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and Tyler Goeddel (the latter two were dreadful in 2016) next season, dipping into free agency for another outfielder remains a possibility. If general manager Matt Klentak does sign anyone, odds are it’ll be a left-handed hitter. Of the previously mentioned four, only the switch-hitting Quinn is capable of batting from the left side.
Bullpen: Klentak has revealed he’s looking for more relief help, though he has already been busy on that front throughout the offseason. Philadelphia has acquired three stopgaps in Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Sean Burnett (on a minor league deal), but its projected major league bullpen could stand to make improvements beyond Benoit, Neshek, Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez.
Left-Handed Starter: The Phillies’ starting five at the moment features nothing but right-handers, and Adam Morgan is their only Triple-A starter who’s a southpaw. Perhaps it would be logical to sign a swingman like Travis Wood, who could initially work out of the bullpen (joining fellow lefty Joely Rodriguez) and then potentially factor into the rotation if someone suffers an injury or underperforms.

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