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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • Steve Adams issued a Free Agent Stock Watch on Nick Markakis and believes the Orioles outfielder could be well-positioned for a multi-year contract, if he, as expected, hits the open market this winter.
  • Charlie Wilmoth asked MLBTR readers to rate the top 2015 free agent starting pitchers. More than 75% of you ranked Max Scherzer number one with Jon Lester a distant second.
  • Tim Dierkes was the first to report left-hander Mike Zagurski has a June 1 opt-out date in his minor league deal with the Indians.
  • Zach Links broke the news the minor league contract Greg Dobbs signed with the Nationals contained an early June opt-out date. The opt-out became moot when the Nats added Dobbs to the 25-man roster Friday.
  • MLBTR was the first to learn left-hander Brian Burres, currently pitching for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs of the independent Atlantic League, has received interest from a few MLB teams.
  • Zach reminisced about the brief four-game tenure as a Met for Yogi Berra, who was released by the club 49 years ago this week.
  • Steve hosted this week’s live chat.
  • Zach assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • Steve Adams was the first to report right-hander David Aardsma has a May 15 opt-out date in his minor league deal with the Cardinals.
  • Zach Links confirmed the retirement of catcher Matt Treanor, who decided to call it a career with the impending birth of his first child and after suffering a setback in his rehab from a hamstring injury.
  • Zach revisited the trade made 24 years ago today in which the Yankees dealt Dave Winfield to the Angels for right-hander Mike Witt.
  • Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
  • Zach gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In. 

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • Tim Dierkes was the first to report the Braves and third baseman Chris Johnson were nearing a contract extension.
  • Steve Adams researched waiver claims over the past calendar year using MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker and discovered the Rangers’ Jon Daniels was the most active general manager being involved in nearly 18% of those claims. Steve also noted fewer players had been claimed multiple times than the year before.
  • Joel Hanrahan, who signed a one-year, incentive-laden MLB contract on Friday, told Zach Links he isn’t surprised by his quick recovery from Tommy John surgery. “I put in the hard work while everyone else was playing this summer. I was going to rehab every day five times a week at 8:00 in the morning. That was my season.”
  • MLBTR’s 2013-2014 Offseason In Review series concluded with Steve’s recap of the Mariners.
  • Zach was the first to learn catcher J.R. Towles, off to a torrid start for the Brigdeport Bluefish of the independent Atlantic League, is receiving interest from MLB teams.
  • Steve hosted the MLBTR live chat this week.
  • Zach put together the best of the baseball blogosphere in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
  • ICYMI, Charlie Wilmoth asked MLBTR readers whether the Astros promoted George Springer at the right time. Only 37.67% of you thought the team should have waited to start the 24-year-old’s service clock.

Examining Waiver Activity Over The Past Year

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Last April, I used MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker to take a look at the players who had the somewhat unfortunate distinction of having been claimed on waivers multiple times. Examples of this type of player are formerly well-regarded prospects with some upside left, relievers with a flaw, or utility players that are good enough to be on a 25-man roster but not so good that they are deemed irreplaceable. My look at the players who had been claimed three and even four times in a span of 365 days prompted another question in my mind: Which general managers have been the most active on the waiver wire?

The exercise was interesting enough that I made a point to do so again in 2014. Upon looking back I was a bit surprised to see that not one player was claimed off waivers four times, as last year three players — Russ Canzler, Sandy Rosario and Chris Schwinden — found themselves packing their bags and moving on four different occasions. Not only were there no four-claim players, but this season presented a smaller amount of three-claim players, when the 2012-13 sample I studied had produced five three-claim players. My first glimpse came from studying April 17, 2012 to April 17, 2013; with that in mind, before I continue further, here are the players who were claimed multiple times from the date of that post to April 17, 2014:

  • Liam Hendriks: Hendriks was originally designated for assignment by the Twins to make room for Phil Hughes, and he was quickly claimed by the Cubs. Chicago wasted little time in trying to sneak him through waivers, only to lose him to the Orioles, who eventually lost him to the Blue Jays when Hendriks was the DFA casualty to make room for Ubaldo Jimenez. Still just 25, Hendriks has looked great in five Triple-A appearances (three starts) for Toronto thus far.
  • Adam Rosales: Rosales may be the most interesting case, as all of his team changes occurred between the division-rival A’s and Rangers. Originally DFA’ed by Oakland, Texas claimed him and designated him after just one weekend. When Oakland claimed him back and was again forced to DFA him, Texas was awarded the winning claim. The versatile utility infielder is hitting very well at Triple-A Round Rock, slashing .240/.380/.467 with four homers.
  • Jimmy Paredes: Paredes jumped from the Astros to the Marlins to the Orioles to the Royals. Jeff Baker’s signing in Miami and the addition of Suk-Min Yoon in Baltimore led to his final two departures from a 40-man roster. He hit .319/.319/.447 in 11 Triple-A games before being called up to Kansas City’s big league roster, though he’s yet to start a game or even have a plate appearance as a Royal (he has appeared in three games as a pinch-runner).

In addition to that trio, each of Pedro Beato, Alex Castellanos, Maikel Cleto, Pedro Figueroa, Chris Gimenez, Brett Marshall, Brent Morel, Rafael Ortega, Andy Parrino and Matt Tuiasosopo were claimed off waivers twice.

The reason behind the lack of three- and four-claim players could be a very simple one: From April 17, 2012 to April 17, 2013, there were 133 waiver claims processed in Major League Baseball which resulted in a player changing teams (excluding the Rule 5 Draft, which is technically a waiver claim). From April 17, 2013 to April 17, 2014, there were 96 waiver claims processed that led to a player switching teams.

Particularly absent from the waiver market were the previously highly active Blue Jays and Yankees. In the 2012-13 period I examined, Alex Anthopoulos made an incredible 22 waiver claims, while his New York counterpart, Brian Cashman, claimed 14 players. Those same two GMs combined for just eight waiver claims in the 2013-14 period, with Toronto claiming six players and New York claiming just two. Here’s a look at the breakdown of each team/GM’s activity on the waiver wire, sorted by the change in their activity:

Team General Manager 2012-13 Claims 2013-14 Claims Net Change
Rangers Jon Daniels 5 13 8
White Sox Rick Hahn 2 5 3
Angels Jerry Dipoto 2 5 3
Dodgers Ned Colletti 0 3 3
Reds Walt Jocketty 0 2 2
Nationals Mike Rizzo 1 3 2
Royals Dayton Moore 5 6 1
Cardinals John Mozeliak 1 2 1
Diamondbacks Kevin Towers 5 5 0
Braves Frank Wren 2 2 0
Tigers Dave Dombrowski 1 1 0
Astros Jeff Luhnow 7 7 0
Mariners Jack Zduriencik 1 1 0
Rays Andrew Friedman 2 2 0
Rockies Dan O’Dowd 0 0 0
Marlins Larry Beinfest/Dan Jennings 3 2 -1
Brewers Doug Melvin 4 3 -1
Twins Terry Ryan 3 2 -1
Mets Sandy Alderson 2 1 -1
Phillies Ruben Amaro Jr. 2 1 -1
Giants Brian Sabean 3 1 -2
Cubs Jed Hoyer 10 8 -2
Red Sox Ben Cherington 2 0 -2
Athletics Billy Beane 8 5 -3
Padres Josh Byrnes 5 2 -3
Orioles Dan Duquette 8 4 -4
Pirates Neal Huntington 5 1 -4
Indians Chris Antonetti 8 2 -6
Yankees Brian Cashman 14 2 -12
Blue Jays Alex Anthopoulos 22 6 -16

On the flip side, it makes some sense to see fairly active teams such as the Pirates and Indians experience a decrease in the number of claims they were awarded. Pittsburgh finished the 2013 season by ending 21-year playoff drought, meaning they had one of baseball’s best records for the first time in years. Cleveland improved its record by 24 games from 2012 to 2013, meaning their improved record likely prevented them from acquiring some players. (Their improved roster also had fewer holes that needed to be filled.)As you can see, the Rangers experienced the largest jump in waiver activity despite maintaining a strong record throughout the season, perhaps indicating that Daniels and his staff were more aggressive in placing claims. Of the 96 waiver claims that were processed, 12.5 percent of the claims were awarded to the Rangers. Factoring in the five players –Rosales, Castellanos, Ortega, Joey Butler and Julio Borbon — that Texas also lost on waivers to another organization, the Rangers were involved in 17.7 percent of all waiver claims over the one-year span from my last examination to this year’s.

Perhaps the most curious trend continues to be the Rockies’ lack of activity on the waiver wire. As the Transaction Tracker shows, the last successful claim the Rockies made was more than two years ago when they claimed right-hander Adam Ottavino off waivers from the Cardinals on April 3, 2012.

Note: This post does include the Rangers’ claim of Charlie Leesman off release waivers from the White Sox last April, as Leesman rejected the assignment and elected free agency. Additionally, though some have reported the Rays’ acquisition of Wesley Wright last August as a waiver claim, the Astros announced that they received cash considerations in exchange for Wright in their press release. That transaction was considered a trade and is not included in these results.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • Zach Links examined the issue of the advance consent form in speaking with agent Joel Wolfe (his client, Randy Wolf, sparked the recent debate by refusing the Mariners' request to sign one as a condition of securing a 25-man roster spot out of Spring Training), as well as club and union officials.
  • Steve Adams previewed next offseason's class of free agents with the first installment of MLBTR's 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • Charlie Wilmoth opines the Pirates would be wise to forego a long-term contract extension for Pedro Alvarez due to concerns regarding how he will age, with a complicating factor being the third baseman's agent, Scott Boras. 
  • Zach was the first to report Manny Ramirez has drawn interest from several MLB teams and is only considering a return to the majors, minors, or Japan.
  • Steve hosted this week's live chat.
  • Zach assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

Teams Wield Advance Consent Hammer

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As Opening Day drew near, veteran Randy Wolf appeared to be the frontrunner for the No. 5 spot in the Mariners' rotation.  That's why it came as a bit of a surprise when he requested his release from the club on March 25th.  It turned out that Wolf, who missed all of 2013 as he recovered from his second Tommy John surgery, refused to sign a 45-day advance-consent form.  The form, for the uninitiated, would have allowed the M's to terminate the deal during that window for any reason except injury.  

While sources tell MLBTR that these requests are common throughout MLB, Wolf told Bob Dutton of The News Tribune that he was quite upset about it.  The 37-year-old felt as though he was put in a position where he had to renegotiate his deal just months after hammering out a team-friendly pact ($1MM for making big league roster with $3MM+ in incentives) days before the start of the season.  “The fact that I essentially made the team, in theory, I’m proud of that accomplishment.” the veteran told Dutton. “But I’m really disappointed in how it ended. The day should have started with a handshake and congratulations instead of a 24-hour feeling of licking a D-cell battery. So, it’s a really hard time.” 

Of course, the Mariners and General Manager Jack Zduriencik acted completely within the rights granted to them by the Collective Bargaining Agreement: the advance consent form has been in place since the end of the 1994/1995 strike.  And, as expected, Wolf wasn't out of work for very long, as he signed a similar minor league deal with the Diamondbacks late last week.  However, Wolf's ire about the relatively unknown clause raised some interesting questions about how frequently it's used, the ways it could be misused, and how it is viewed by executives, agents, players, and the players union.

"As a general matter, players hate it," one union source said. "These are players, needless to say, who did not have a lot of leverage in their negotiations in the offseason…There's no question that it is a distasteful process for players and their agents."

The use of the form varies greatly from club to club.  One high-ranking executive told MLBTR that his club has asked a player to sign an advance consent form just once over the last decade.  On the flipside, a National League executive said that anytime his team has a player with five or more years of major league service (the form cannot be extended to those with less service time per the CBA) who does not figure to be an everyday player, they will use the clause in order to give themselves as much flexibility as possible.  In line with that thinking, the club often will push for players to agree to optional assignment rather than outright assignment.  If the player consents to outright assignment, the club does not have to subject the player to waivers before demoting him.  Again, per the CBA, both types are permitted.

Because the request is traditionally made of players who don't have a ton of leverage, they often agree to sign.  The NL exec has found that there are times when agents will protest, but with the leverage being in the club's corner, they'll ultimately relent.  

"If the agent gives you push back, then you say, 'Okay, we'll go with someone else because we need the flexibility.'  I've never had an agent not back down," he explained.  "I tell them once you get [to the big league roster], you could stay there for a heck of a long time.  We never do it with the intent to send them down and keep them there."

Of course, as in Wolf's case, some players do object, and agents will often consult with the union ("We act as a sounding board," the source explained) to talk through their different options.  The form can allow for both types of assignments and the length can also be negotiated since the 45-day mark is not a hard number, but rather a maximum limit. 

The union source explained that at the beginning of the season, about a dozen players are usually asked to sign a consent form.  Over the course of the season, that number tends to grow to "30-to-36" requests.  The distinction between the number of players who are asked to sign off and the number of requests is an important one.  Several players in any given year will be asked to sign multiple consent forms, which can essentially keep them in a state of limbo.  

The aforementioned executive told MLBTR that agents often fret over the possibility of their clients being asked to sign multiple forms, though he was unsure of whether that was common practice or just a fear of player reps.  "It's absolutely a reality," the MLBPA source said. "There are players who have signed three advance consents in a season, which obviously covers the better part of a full season."  It should be noted that while there have been cases of a player being churned through consecutive advanced consent forms, the union indicated that there aren't specific clubs who are routine offenders.

Wolf felt blindsided by the Mariners' request at the end of March, but the reality is that he wasn't guaranteed at the time of signing that he wouldn't be asked to sign an advance consent form as a condition of making the major league roster, agent Joel Wolfe confirmed to MLBTR.  In this case, Wolfe and Wolf had non-roster offers from ten clubs this offseason after he impressed in his winter showcase.  Wolf and Wolfe ultimately settled on the M's because they felt that they gave him the best chance to make a big league rotation.  However, they were rebuffed when they asked for assurance that they wouldn't be asked to sign off on advance consent. 

"They told me, 'We don't do that' and, really, no team that I've dealt with does that.  They don't even want to discuss that," Wolfe said. "The team made a decision as a policy, not singling out Randy, that a player in this position must sign an advance consent or he's not going to make the team."

One would be hard-pressed to find a team in MLB that explicitly warns players about a possible advance consent request.  The union official indicated that while teams won't do it, agents usually give their low-leverage clients a heads up to brace for the possibility.  The NL exec said he does not warn players of the possibility at the time of signing, but if an agent asks, he always answers truthfully.

In a lot of cases, being asked for advance consent is a blow to a player's ego and a very real source of frustration.  However, there are certainly cases where it can work in a player's favor.  Wolfe explained that he once had a client who seemed destined to either start the season in Double-A or get released.  However, the player exceeded all expectations in Spring Training and wound up on course to make the big league roster.  The club had Wolfe's client sign an advance consent form and soon after when he suffered an serious injury, he was protected from release since a player cannot be cut due to injury.  While Wolf's situation put the notion of advance consent in a negative light, it can also be beneficial for players in a different position.

That doesn't mean that advance consent will be embraced by the majority of major leaguers.  As Wolfe explained, an accomplished veteran like Wolf is accustomed to using Spring Training as an opportunity to shake off some offseason rust and get back in the swing of things.  When that player is on a non-guaranteed deal, they now have to approach every at bat and every inning as though it were the regular season.  After putting in that kind of effort, veteran players don't want to hear, "Hey, you made the team, but…"  Whether they like it or not, players will be subjected to advance consent requests for at least a couple more years.  Even then, it's far from guaranteed that the issue will be revisited or revised in the 2016 CBA discussions.

2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

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As we at MLBTR did in 2013, we'll constantly be looking toward the future over the course of the season to see which players are positioning themselves for a healthy payday on the 2014-15 open market. Remember that you can always find a full list of next season's free agents here (or on the right-hand sidebar under "MLBTR Features), and keep an eye out for future editions of these rankings. For now, here's the first entry in our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings series.

1. Hanley Ramirez.  Fragile or not, there's no debating that when Ramirez is on the field, he's one of the best-hitting shortstops of this generation. Hanley, who has slashed .286/.351/.506 since 2012 and batted an insane .345/.402/.638 in a half season last year, is said to be in extension talks with the Dodgers. However, while many thought a deal would get done in Spring Training, it's been eerily quiet. Big spenders with potential needs at shortstop and/or third base next season (in addition to the Dodgers) include the Yankees, Mets, and Angels. Depending upon how injuries, prospect development, and strategic considerations pan out, the Tigers and Red Sox could hypothetically also have interest in adding an impact player to the left side of the infield.

2. Max Scherzer.  Fresh off his first Cy Young Award in 2013, Scherzer boldly bet on himself by rejecting a six-year, $144MM extension offer to remain with the Tigers. The strikeout artist trails only Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw in fWAR since the start of the 2012 season, and with agent Scott Boras doing the negotiating, another Cy Young caliber season could position Scherzer to set a new record for pitchers in free agency.

3. Jon Lester.  Beyond the top two, things become a little less concrete. Some may prefer James Shields to Lester, but the fact that Lester is a full two years younger and has spent his entire career thriving in the AL East can't be ignored (though Shields, too, spent most of his career there). As was the case with Ramirez, many expected a Spring Training extension for Lester, who said this offseason he wanted to remain with the Red Sox until the jersey was "ripped off [his] back." Lester rebounded from a poor 2012 to post a 3.75 ERA in 213 1/3 innings last season — his fifth 200-inning, sub-4.00 ERA season in six tries.

4. James Shields.  In terms of bottom-line results, Shields has arguably been the most consistent performer on this free agent crop. However, he's also had the benefit of a consistently elite defense behind him (both the Rays and Royals are excellent), and he's pitched in a pair of very pitcher-friendly environments. That's not to discount his talent, as he's among the league's best right-handers, but Shields will be entering his age-33 season with this next contract, so concern about his decline is more pronounced than with some of his peers.

5. Ervin Santana.  Santana is a surprise entrant on this list after most expected him to sign a multi-year deal this offseason. He could be saddled with another qualifying offer next year, but a second consecutive dominant season would leave his ugly 2012 campaign two years in the past and could convince disbelievers that he's capable of consistently turning in an ERA in the mid-3.00 range.

6. Chase Headley.  When a 3.5 fWAR season that came despite missing April causes people to say you had a "down year," you're in good shape. That's the reality for Headley, who saw his Herculean .286/.376/.498 batting line from 2012 (in Petco Park!) plummet to a still-respectable .250/.347/.400 in 2013. Interested teams will look at Headley and dream on his offensive ceiling in a more hitter-friendly environment, knowing that even without tremendous improvement, he's an above-average bat that handles the hot corner well.

7. Justin Masterson.  Another player whose extension looked to be a foregone conclusion is Masterson, who surprisingly saw his own offers of $51MM over three years and $35MM over two years declined by the Indians. Masterson's off to a rough start, but the ground-ball specialist posted an ERA south of 3.50 and topped 190 innings in 2011 and 2013. He's added some significant strikeouts to his arsenal as well, whiffing 210 batters over his past 208 1/3 frames.

8. Colby Rasmus.  Rasmus finds himself ranked here due to his power and defense at a premium position (center field) as well as his youth (he'll play the 2015 season at 28 years of age). Rasmus was a six-WAR player in 2013 despite a sky-high 32 percent strikeout rate. He kept a passable batting average based on a lofty .359 BABIP, but he'd be well-served to improve his contact abilities this season. Doing so would eliminate a great deal of concern and bolster his free agent stock, although poor contact rates certainly didn't hurt B.J. Upton's market value.

9. Pablo Sandoval.  Kung Fu Panda will also play the 2015 campaign at 28 years of age, and he's averaged 3.4 fWAR from 2011-13. The switch-hitter has a pair of five-WAR campaigns under his belt and would likely see a boost in his offensive output if he moved away from AT&T Park. Of course, the Giants love retaining their players, are said to be in extension talks with Sandoval (though a wide gap exists) and he's wildly popular among fans. He may end up with an extension when all is said and done — remember, Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum both inked new deals last year right on the cusp of free agency — but if not, he'll be a hot commodity.

10. J.J. Hardy.  Hardy's name might not carry much star power, but he's a truly elite defender at shortstop with rare power for the position. He has an injury history, but he's stayed on the field more than his free agent peers in recent seasons. Teams will be hard-pressed to get an OBP north of .310 from Hardy, but it's nice to have a slick-fielding, 20-to-25 homer shortstop in the bottom third of the lineup, and shortstops are always hard to find.

Other players who could force their way onto this year's rankings with a big season include (in alphabetical order as opposed to numbered ranking): Asdrubal Cabrera, Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Michael Cuddyer, Jorge De La Rosa, Corey Hart, Torii Hunter, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Jed Lowrie, Russell Martin, Mike Morse and Jake Peavy, to name a handful. And, of course, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew could also make appearances, should they ultimately sign one-year pacts.

Note: Players whose contracts contain options (e.g. Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Yovani Gallardo) were not considered for this list.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made a couple of blockbuster trades and re-worked their bullpen but steered clear of the big free agent signings we've come to expect from GM Dave Dombrowski and owner Mike Ilitch.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Tigers wrapped up their 2013 season with an ALCS loss to the Red Sox that served as a bittersweet farewell to longtime manager Jim Leyland. Their first order of business was to find a new skipper, and they did so in the form of former big league catcher Brad Ausmus.

Kinsler-Ian-Tigers

However, Detroit's biggest need this offseason could arguably have been to gain some long-term financial flexibility, and the club was able to accomplish that while finding a replacement for Infante all in the same move. In trading Fielder to the Rangers for Kinsler and $30MM, Dombrowski successfully shaved $76MM off the payroll over the next several years.

That savings, perhaps along with some of the money saved in the Fister trade, paved the way for the Tigers to sign Miguel Cabrera to a whopping eight-year, $248MM extension that serves as the second largest deal in history in terms of new money. When combined with the existing two years and $44MM he was already owed, Cabrera's 10-year, $292MM commitment is the largest ever made to a player in Major League history.

Last season, the Tigers experienced an early-season carousel in the ninth inning that led to a short-lived and unsightly reunion with Jose Valverde before Benoit finally solidified the closer's spot. However, Benoit departed via free agency, and the Tigers sought the biggest upgrade the market had to offer, inking active saves leader Nathan to a two-year deal. It's not without risk, given Nathan's age (39), but then again, what multi-year deal for a reliever is? Seeking a more affordable option than Veras for a setup role, Dombrowski brought in Chamberlain on a one-year deal. Chamberlain's struggles in New York were pronounced, but he fits the mold of the typical hard-throwing power arm that Detroit tends to target.

Those additions, along with the Fister trade, allowed the Tigers to move Drew Smyly into the rotation alongside Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello, with Krol sliding into the 'pen in Smyly's stead. That quintet looks to be one of the most talented groups in the Majors and should give the Tigers a good chance to once again post one of the five best collective rotation ERAs in the game.

In the outfield, Dombrowski sought to add more speed by adding Davis on a two-year deal, and he would have formed a solid platoon with Andy Dirks, had Dirks not suffered a back injury. Dirks is on the shelf for the first three months or so of the season, thrusting Davis, rookie Tyler Collins and utility man Don Kelly into more action than originally expected.

Questions Remaining

While the Cabrera extension clearly filled a need for the near future, it will almost certainly be perceived in a negative light by its completion. Cabrera could very well be the best power hitter on the face of the planet right now, so it makes sense that that Tigers would want to retain him and even lock him up for life, but history has shown that 10-year commitments such as this one (e.g. Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols) aren't likely to pan out. While he has astoundingly never been on the disabled list, Cabrera did battle a groin injury that required offseason surgery in 2013, and the odds of him maintaining his impressive durability through his age-40 season are slim to none.

The bigger question, for the Tigers, will be how many more years of elite slugging they receive from Cabrera before his inevitable decline. For all of Cabrera's accolades at the plate, the same "best hitter on the planet" tag could have been applied to Pujols or Rodriguez at the time of their signings, and they wilted quickly (though Pujols could still experience a turnaround, of course). And, it must be asked if the best way to utilize their newfound financial freedom after escaping Fielder's decline years was to immediately dedicate that money to the decline years of another slugger.

Injuries have ravaged the Tigers' roster, creating a good deal of uncertainty for the 2014 season. For the time being, they've elected to bridge the gap to Dirks' return with internal options, but a waiver claim or some type of minor move to improve that depth early in the season wouldn't be a surprise.

Of longer-term consequence is the fact that Jose Iglesias is likely to miss the season with stress fractures in each of his shins/ The Tigers have, to this point, deployed an unexciting combination of Gonzalez and Romine to fill the void. One has to wonder just how long they can go with that combination before looking for a real upgrade.

The logical connection to make there is that Stephen Drew remains unsigned, and at this point, there may not be a team with a greater need that represents a better fit. Drew is already in the clear in terms of dodging another qualifying offer — any team that signs him would be unable to make an offer, as he didn't spent the entire year on its roster — but the Tigers may prefer to wait until after the June draft to make a move. That strategy would preserve their 2015 first-round pick, but it would also mean about two months of replacement-level production at shortstop as well as the risk that another club swoops in and signs him at an earlier date.

In addition to Dirks and Iglesias, the Tigers also lost flamethrowing setup ace Bruce Rondon to Tommy John surgery. Rondon's departure for the season means that the Tigers will be relying on a patchwork bullpen to get to Nathan in the ninth inning, with Krol, Chamberlain and Al Alburquerque representing the best options for Ausmus.

A final, albeit lesser question mark is whether or not Nick Castellanos can hold down the fort as Ausmus' primary third base option. Castellanos is universally regarded as one of the game's top hitting prospects, but he's still just 22 years old and rocketed through the minor leagues without clearly dominating at any one level. That's not to say he isn't capable of being a plus third baseman in the Majors, but merely to ask if it's a reasonable expectation for the 2014 campaign.

Deal of Note

The Fister trade is still one of the most controversial moves of the offseason, simply due to the fact that most feel Dombrowski — who is generally perceived as an excellent GM in trades — didn't receive a large enough return for his right-hander.

From 2011-13, Fister ranked ninth among all Major League pitchers in fWAR (13.3) and rWAR (12.6). In 586 2/3 innings in that time, Fister posted a 3.30 ERA with 6.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.75 K/BB and a 50.9 percent ground-ball rate that ranked 18th among 139 qualified starting pitchers. The Nationals will control him for two more seasons, with a $7.2MM salary on tap in 2014 before one more arbitration raise next offseason.

Essentially, Fister has pitched at a level that is comparable, if not superior to that of James Shields over the three-year term that preceded his to his trade to the Royals (albeit in a weaker division). Shields, who was also more expensive than Fister, posted a 3.76 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 46.6 percent ground-ball rate in that time. He did total an additional 100 innings, and the Rays included Wade Davis in the deal as well, but it seems disproportionate that Shields would net a package headlined by Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi while Fister yielded Ray, Krol and Lombardozzi.

Ray is the jewel of the deal, but he didn't rank among the game's Top 100 prospects per Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and he came in at No. 97 on MLB.com's list. Dombrowski has said the trade was made due to the difficulty of acquiring young pitching, noting that Ray was one of 15 pitching prospects who interested the Tigers and the only one with which a rival club was willing to part. Perhaps Dombrowski sensed the impending injury to Fister that has sidelined him to open the season, but he was healthy enough at the time of the trade to pass Washington's physical, so it seems unlikely that any sort of major red flag was present.

With Lombardozzi already shipped off, the Tigers are left with Ray, Krol and one year of Gonzalez to show for Fister, making Ray's development critical to the trade's success. Should Ray fail to pan out, the Tigers would be left with a left-handed reliever and some extra cash that may have helped to facilitate a likely ill-fated contract extension for Cabrera — a tough pill to swallow for Detroit fans.

Overview

Despite question marks in the bullpen and at shortstop, the Tigers boast an elite rotation and a lineup that should score plenty of runs, making them the favorites to take home their fourth consecutive AL Central Division Championship. This team is in a clear win-now mode, although the subtraction of Fister does contradict that thinking to an extent. The Tigers could very well find themselves in the market for a one-year upgrade at shortstop or some short-term help in left field, but even if they stick with in-house options, they're likely to see October baseball once again.

The long-term outlook is more questionable, as after shedding the decline phase of Fielder's contract, the Tigers purchased a larger portion of that same phase of Cabrera's career. They already have a remarkable $83.8MM in contracts guaranteed in 2017, $68MM in 2018 (including buyouts for Kinsler and Anibal Sanchez) and $58MM in 2019. With some potentially restrictive commitments for declining players on the books in the future, the team could be facing a closing window for its first World Series title since 1984.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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