MLBTR Originals

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

• Tim Dierkes wrote the new draft pick compensation system is superior, but a qualifying offer is a major drag on the leverage of good-but-not-great free agents.
• MLBTR was the first to report right-handed reliever Mike MacDougal will throw for interested teams in Tempe on Tuesday.
• Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the top ten free agent contracts for starting pitchers this offseason.
• Ben noted an increase in the number of contract extensions given this winter which did not extend the amount of team control over the player.
• Steve Adams asked MLBTR readers which was the best transaction by the A's this offseason. More than 41% of you believe GM Billy Beane's best move was acquiring Chris Young from the Diamondbacks.
• Daniel Seco asked MLBTR readers which team had the most disappointing offseason. There was a near even split between the Rangers (31%), Marlins (29%), and Yankees (25.5%).
• Ben listed the remaining arbitration cases.
• Zach Links revisted the notable transactions from February 2012.
• Ben hosted the weekly live chat.
• Zach gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

Pitchers and catchers are due to report this weekend for some teams, yet two of MLBTR's top ten free agents remain unsigned in Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse.  Part of the delay is owed to the master of slow-playing free agency, Scott Boras.  However, another major factor for both players is that they received and turned down qualifying offers in November.

Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, teams had the ability to tender their free agents a guaranteed one-year "qualifying offer" that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the most recently completed season.  For the 2012-13 offseason, that amount was $13.3MM.  Only nine players were deemed worthy of such offers by their teams: Bourn, Lohse, Josh Hamilton, Hiroki Kuroda, Adam LaRoche, David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher, and B.J. Upton.  All nine players turned down the offer in search of more lucrative contracts.

Any team signing one of these nine free agents, outside of their own, was required to forfeit its highest available draft pick, with the first ten picks protected.  Kuroda and Ortiz avoided the issue by re-signing quickly in November, and while LaRoche eventually re-signed with the Nationals in January, draft pick compensation did seem to affect his market.  Swisher and Soriano ultimately signed smaller-than-expected contracts as well.  Higher-caliber players such as Hamilton and Upton seemed unaffected.

Many of our top 20 free agents were able to avoid qualifying offers.  Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Victorino and Ryan Dempster skirted the issue by virtue of midseason trades, which make a player ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.  In a January radio interview with Tim McKernan, Jim Hayes, and Doug Vaughn of The Morning After, Lohse referred to this as a "get out of jail free card" for Greinke and Sanchez.

Other top 20 free agents, such as Edwin Jackson, Angel Pagan, Mike Napoli, and Torii Hunter, simply didn't receive qualifying offers from their former teams.  Jackson ultimately signed the largest contract of these players, a $52MM pact with the Cubs that basically guarantees him a qualifying offer-type salary over four seasons.  The Nationals, who stood to receive a draft pick in the supplemental first round had Jackson declined a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, elected to move on instead.  Jackson's agent, Greg Genske of The Legacy Agency, preferred not to speculate on the Nationals' decision, but told MLBTR, "We were delighted to see that they didn't offer him a qualifying offer, because we know this: it's certainly not going to hurt him to not have the draft pick compensation attached to him."  The Cubs ran parallel pursuits of Jackson and Sanchez, and it's no coincidence the rebuilding team zeroed in on pitchers who would not require the forfeiture of their second round draft pick.

If signing a free agent does require the forfeiture of a first or second round draft pick, how much does it matter to potential suitors?  It's team-specific, explained Genske, who said, "I think that most of the teams that are in on the top-tier free agents are really focused on winning now.  So I think they're less inclined to be concerned about that draft pick and even the bonus pool money associated with it."  In Victorino, Dempster, and Napoli, the Red Sox signed three top 20 free agents who did not come with draft pick compensation attached.  GM Ben Cherington explained to MLBTR, "We have to consider the cost of giving up a pick, as draft picks are valuable, and so it's part of the acquisition cost for a free agent attached to a draft pick. But there are cases we will consider giving up a pick for the right player. This offseason many of our targets didn't require that, but it was a secondary benefit, not the driving factor in our pursuit."  One NL exec I spoke to seemed less concerned about potentially losing a draft pick, saying, "If we really want the player and feel he can make the difference for us in having a championship club – or building toward a championship club – it’s not a significant factor.  Look, we all like picks and prospects, but even among the top 50 prospects in the game more than half of them never make it."

Lohse, our tenth-ranked free agent, clearly feels draft pick compensation dragged down his market, telling McKernan, Hayes, and Vaughn, "Losing the pick, it's obviously kind of a big deal for teams, but they also lose about 30% of the money they can spend on the draft, so that definitely handcuffs them when it comes to signing other people."  Lohse hit on one major difference between losing a draft pick now versus under the old CBA: the team also loses the MLB-allotted slot money associated with that pick.  And unlike previous offseasons, a team can't go over slot elsewhere in the draft to make up for a lost pick.

What can an agent do to avoid Lohse's plight?  Perhaps agents will push impending free agents to be more open to waiving their no-trade clauses midseason, in hopes of snagging that "get out of jail free" card.  One strategy, allowed under the old CBA, was to negotiate a clause into a free agent contract that stipulated the team could not offer arbitration after the season.  This type of agreement is outlawed in the new CBA "whether implied or explicit, either orally or in writing," with potentially steep penalties.  A bold agent could legally sidestep draft pick compensation in one way: convince the client to sit out the first two months of the season and sign after the June draft.  Otherwise, the agent is left to explore the unlikely scenario of a sign-and-trade loophole.  It should also be noted that the Mets are currently lobbying MLB for an exception that would lessen the blow for teams with bottom-ten records whose first-round draft pick was pushed out of the protected top ten.

Lohse admitted he's biased, but wondered in the interview if "the rules could use a little tweaking [to] figure out a way to make it a little more fair."  The NL exec with whom I spoke doesn't find the current system unfair, noting that "the great thing about qualifying offers was that only elite players received them."  Cherington also feels we're better off now, telling MLBTR, "I think the new rules are more equitable..it's less likely that a player's market will be affected by being attached to a pick. The intent is to provide some compensation to teams who lose the most impactful free agents to free agency particularly those who a team has invested in over time."  Genske feels the same from the agency side, telling me, "You take a lot of the people out of the [draft pick compensation] system altogether, which is helpful for players, and you've limited some of the arbitrary nature as as to what the compensation is going to be for a particular free agent."

The bottom line: the new draft pick compensation system is superior, but a qualifying offer is a major drag on the leverage of good-but-not-great free agents.  For such players, perhaps teams that place a lower value on draft picks will become the most coveted destinations, so that qualifying offers can be avoided.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

• Ben Nicholson-Smith participated in the conference call announcing Martin Prado's four-year, $40MM contract extension with the Diamondbacks and reported Prado was surprised by his inclusion in the Justin Upton trade, but is happy to be in Arizona.
• Ben explained the basics of the arbitration process.
• Mark Polishuk asked MLBTR readers what will be the terms of Michael Bourn's next contract. Just over 44% of you believe Bourn will have to settle for a one-year deal in the neighborhood of $12-15MM.
• Ben asked MLBTR readers whether the Padres should extend Chase Headley and more than 70% of you would do so.
• Zach Links asked MLBTR readers which remaining player on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list will sign next. More than 41% of you believe it will be Joe Saunders (#25).
• Daniel Seco asked MLBTR readers whether the Rangers have done enough this offseason and an overwhelming 85% of you believe they haven't.
• MLBTR was the first to learn Cardinals prospect Oscar Taveras switched agents leaving Melvin Roman for Rob Plummer. 
• Ben hosted the MLBTR live chat this week.
• Zach compiled this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

• Justin Upton and Braves GM Frank Wren shared their thoughts with a group of reporters, including MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith, about the seven-player trade which sent Upton from Arizona to Atlanta.
• Ben also participated in the conference call announcing the Red Sox's signing of Mike Napoli and reports Napoli was shocked to learn of his avascular necrosis diagnosis, but feels the condition will not stop him from having a productive 2013 season, as he becomes a full-time first baseman. 
• MLBTR confirmed Yankees reliever Boone Logan is now represented by CAA.
• MLBTR was the first to learn the White Sox claimed right-hander Zach Stewart off waivers from the Pirates.
• Ben discussed the fundamentals of the arbitration process with Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos.
• Ben listed the ten largest remaining arbitration cases based on figures from MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker.
• Ben examined how each of the nine players who received qualifying offers have fared on the free agent market.
• Zach Links made his debut this week putting together the best of the baseball blogosphere in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
• Ben hosted this week's chat.
• Want the latest rumors for your favorite team? Check out MLBTR's team-by-team links for Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

• MLBTR was the first to report the following deals that avoided arbitration: the Tigers and Rick Porcello for one year and $5.1MM, the White Sox and Gordon Beckham for one year and $2.925MM, and the Giants and Jose Mijares for one year and $1.8MM.
• Tim Dierkes broke the story of the Red Sox and Joel Hanrahan avoiding arbitration with a one-year, $7.04MM contract.
• Tim was also the first to learn Neftali Feliz's one-year deal with the Rangers includes incentives worth $50K based on appearances. 
• Ben Nicholson-Smith attended the Blue Jays' press conference introducing Jose Reyes and reported GM Alex Anthopoulos made the trade because Reyes "is a rare guy to find" and "one of the great players to play the game."
• In other news from the Reyes press conference, Ben noted the Blue Jays will leave the door open on a possible return of free agent reliever Brandon Lyon, Anthopoulos stressed the importance of starting rotation depth, and the GM tempered raised expectations by saying the entire AL East is outstanding. 
• Mark Polishuk participated in the conference call the Mariners held announcing their acquisition of Michael Morse and reported GM Jack Zduriencik felt adding a hitter like Morse was worth the cost of losing John Jaso and Morse welcomed the trade back to the Mariners, as he feels he had some unfinished business in Seattle.
• Ben profiled a pair of extension candidates in the A's starting rotation: Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker.
• Matt Swartz provided an in-depth breakdown of the arbitration cases for Mat Latos, Matt Wieters, and Jim Johnson.
• Mark examined the managers and GMs entering the final year of their contract. 
• Tim explained the file and trial strategy some teams utilize in handling their arbitration cases.
• Ben hosted this week's live chat.
• Mike Axisa assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
• There are many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a refresher on how to use MLBTR. 

A flurry of MLB contract agreements came today, because noon central time marked the point at which teams and arbitration eligible players exchange salary figures if they have not yet reached a deal.

According to an MLB source, five teams treat that deadline as a firm one, meaning they will go to a hearing for all players with whom they have not yet reached an agreement.  These clubs, known as "file and trial" teams, are the Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox.  All arbitration eligible players from these teams have settled with the exception of the Braves' Martin Prado, who seems headed for a February hearing.  

Another four teams are considered file and trial by case: the Brewers, Pirates, Nationals, and Indians.  The definition of that is somewhat vague, but suffice it to say these teams are not afraid to go to a hearing.  The Nationals have had at least one hearing in each of the past seven years, aside from 2011.  They currently have one unsigned arbitration eligible player in Jordan Zimmermann.

Why do teams employ the file and trial or "file-to-go" strategy?  Three years ago, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, "The thought was really it’s hopefully to encourage more dialogue in negotiations with the goal of continuing to avoid arbitration and continuing to try to get deals done and maybe bring both parties to the table a little bit sooner."  In asking a few executives around the game, there is a feeling that the file and trial stance forces agents to focus on a real number to represent the player's value, rather than an artifically inflated one chosen with the midpoint in mind.  

One agent told MLBTR that teams think the strategy puts more pressure on the agent, but it just makes him get ready earlier and become more resolute about his "walk away" number.  Another agent agreed that the file and trial strategy didn't force his hand, but noted that hearings can be more work on the agency side since almost all teams outsource their hearings.  Everyone seems to agree on one point: no one actually wants to go to a hearing.

Though 36 arbitration eligible players exchanged figures and remain unsigned at the moment, the vast majority will avoid a hearing and agree to a one-year or multiyear contract.  The days of 15-30 hearings per year seem long gone, as there hasn't been more than eight in one year since 2001.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

• Tim Trafficanda, the agent for Adam Kennedy, told MLBTR discussions are underway with 3 to 4 teams about a 2013 contract for the free agent infielder.  
• Ben Nicholson-Smith attended the Blue Jays' press conference introducing R.A. Dickey and reported the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner was sold on Toronto after listening to GM Alex Anthopoulos explain his vision for 2013 and beyond.
• Ben also highlighted the non-Dickey news and notes from the press conference about Darren Oliver, Josh Thole, possible contract extensions, and the Blue Jays' bench and bullpen. 
• Zach Links participated in the conference call announcing the Nationals' signing of Adam LaRoche and reported GM Mike Rizzo was in an "enviable position in negotiations," but was anxious to finalize the deal.
• LaRoche spoke with the media the next day and Zach reported LaRoche's desire for a no-trade clause and how he felt being tied to draft pick compensation adversely affected his market. 
• Ben spoke with several GMs about how they must adjust their offseason plans throughout the course of the winter.
• Matt Swartz provided an in-depth breakdown of the arbitration cases for Chase Headley, Hunter Pence, and Max Scherzer.
• Ben noted an increase in the number of multi-year contracts given to free agents this winter, as compared to the previous two offseasons.
• Ben reviewed the market for the remaining free agent right-handed relievers.
• Tim Dierkes was the first to report the Reds signed infielder Nate Samson to a minor league deal.
• Ben asked MLBTR readers whether the Phillies will add another outfielder to their current mix. Over 57% of you believe they will either by trade or free agency. 
• Ben hosted the weekly live chat.
• Mike Axisa gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
• Here's the schedule for MLBTR's roster of weekly features and exactly what to expect from them.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week, as 2012 became 2013:

• Tim Dierkes attended the Cubs' press conference announcing their signing of Edwin Jackson and reported GM Jed Hoyer's rationale behind the move and the benefits Jackson sees in having a long-term contract for the first time in his career.
• Matt Swartz provided an in-depth breakdown of the arbitration cases for David Price and Buster Posey.
• Mark Polishuk listed the key non-moves of 2012.
• Ben Nicholson-Smith, the 94th most influential Canadian in baseball, detailed how the seven teams that allowed the most runs in 2012 have tried to improve themselves. 
• Zach Links asked MLBTR readers which of the seven remaining unsigned players on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list will be the last to come to terms. More than 30% of you picked Jose Valverde (#44) with Rafael Soriano (#17) close behind at 29%. 
• Ben asked MLBTR readers how the Diamondbacks should address their outfield depth. Nearly 41% of you would break the logjam by trading Jason Kubel while over 39% of you would deal Justin Upton.
• Zach revisited the 2012 New Year's Day trade between the White Sox and Blue Jays that sent Jason Frasor back to Toronto in exchange for two minor leaguers.
• I looked back at the Messersmith-McNally decision on its 37th anniversary, a ruling that effectively voided baseball's reserve clause and established true free agency for players.
• Ben hosted the MLBTR live chat this week.
• Mike Axisa put together the best of the baseball blogosphere in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
• Hopefully, one of your New Year's resolutions is to abide by MLBTR's commenting policy.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week as we wind down 2012:

• Stephen Drew told reporters, including MLBTR's Zach Links, he turned down opportunities for a multi-year contract to sign a one-year deal with the Red Sox because Boston was the best fit due in part to the chance to play alongside Dustin Pedroia. 
• Alex Esteban, the agent for free agent infielder Yuniesky Betancourt, told MLBTR he is currently having coversations with four teams and expects his client to sign a Major League contract shortly after the holidays. 
• Mike Axisa updated the status of the seven unsigned players on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list.
• Zach asked MLBTR readers which of those seven will sign next. Nearly 41% of you believe Adam LaRoche will be the first to put pen to paper.
• But will that paper be a three-year contract? More than 55% of MLBTR readers say no.
• Mike listed the remaining free agent power hitters, contact hitters, and ground ball pitchers.
• Zach did likewise with the remaining free agent bullpen strikeout artists and inning-eating starters.
• Mike asked MLBTR readers whether the Red Sox and Mike Napoli will finalize their three-year, $39MM agreement. Over 57% of you say the deal will fall through.
• Zach examined 2012's five worst offensive teams and how they have tried to improve themselves this offseason.  
• Zach profiled the moves the 80-89 Win Club members who failed to make the playoffs have made this winter.
• Mark Polishuk revisited some of the major transactions that have taken place on December 28th in recent years.
• December 29th has seen its share of major transactions, as well. Zach looked back at the free agent signings of Jason Bay by the Mets and Barry Zito by the Giants.
• Zach reminisced about the Mets' acquisition of Mo Vaughn 11 years ago this week from the Angels for Kevin Appier.
• Mike hosted this week's chat.
• Mike compiled this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week, as we check our list to see who's been naughty or nice in the waning hours before St. Nick's arrival:

• Tim Dierkes broke the story of the Yakult Swallows of Japan's Central League signing outfielder Wladimir Balentien ($7.5MM for the 2014-16 seasons), outfielder Lastings Milledge (three years, $4.4 MM with a mutual option for 2016), and closer Tony Barnette (two years, $3.2MM).
• Tim was the first to learn right-hander Daniel McCutchen has received multiple offers to play in Japan. Last month, McCutchen inked a minor league contract with Orioles with the opportunity to opt-out if an opportunity arises to sign with a Japanese team.
• Ben Nicholson-Smith listed the potential suitors for free agent Michael Bourn.
• Ben hosted this week's live chat.
• Mike Axisa assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
• There are many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a refresher on how to use MLBTR. 
• Want the latest rumors for your favorite team? Check out MLBTR's team-by-team links for Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds.
• 'Tis the season for contract extensions, so be sure to use MLBTR's Extension Tracker. It can be found in the sidebar under MLBTR Features, along with the 2013 Free Agent Tracker, Arbitration Tracker, Non-Tender Tracker, Agency Database, and Transaction Tracker. And, don't forget the Santa Tracker!