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Poll: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Future With The Blue Jays

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While the Blue Jays have been involved in pursuits of a number of major players this winter ranging from Juan Soto to Corbin Burnes to Roki Sasaki, the number one question hanging over the club’s head this offseason is the same one that’s been at the forefront of fans’ minds for years now: will the Blue Jays be able to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before he reaches free agency? And, if not, what will the club do about it? The question is now more urgent than ever, with just over nine months left until Guerrero is set to file for free agency.

Even Guerrero’s relatively short remaining window of team control doesn’t fully illustrate how quickly the Blue Jays are reaching a crossroads, however. Guerrero has made clear that he set a deadline for negotiations of the first full day of Spring Training with the club’s front office. For the Blue Jays, the first full-squad workout is February 18, almost exactly a month away. If club brass and Guerrero’s camp are going to get a deal done ahead of that deadline, they’ll need to make a great deal of progress over the next month: reporting yesterday indicated that the sides last had extension discussions before Christmas, and it seems as though there was a significant gap in negotiations when the sides withdrew from the negotiating table for the holidays.

According to Guerrero, the Jays have offered him a deal in the vicinity of $340MM, and that this offer came prior to Soto signing with the Mets on a record-shattering $765MM deal last month. Meanwhile, reports have suggested that Guerrero’s asking price is believed to be above $400MM and potentially close to half a billion dollars. That’s no insignificant difference. That gap in negotiations hasn’t led the club to shop Guerrero on the open market to this point, and the club has signaled that they have every intention of keeping their star in the fold for the 2025 season.

That hasn’t stopped teams from inquiring, however. Recent reporting suggested that the Mets have checked in with the Blue Jays on the possibility of a Guerrero trade. That conversation doesn’t seem to have garnered significant traction to this point, and reports have indicated that the Jays would need to be bowled over by an offer that brings in a bigger haul than Soto did last winter to even consider moving Guerrero. That’s an incredibly steep asking price for any rental player, though of course it should be noted that last winter’s Soto deal and this offseason’s Kyle Tucker deal have suggested that some clubs are willing to pay exorbitant prices for star players even when they have just one season of control remaining.

It goes without saying that if the Jays see a path towards an extension with Guerrero before his deadline next month, they seem all but certain to pursue that rather than consider dealing him. Should negotiations fall through, however, it will be worth wondering whether or not the club will be able to build a contender around him in his final year before free agency. Landing Sasaki would surely help with that goal, and the Jays clearly have money to spend in free agency. They’ve been attached to top remaining free agents like Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso in recent weeks. All of those names would significantly improve the club, but it’s unlikely any of them individually would do enough to push the Jays from fifth place in the AL East into a playoff spot without significant rebound seasons from established players like Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and Alejandro Kirk who struggled to produce last year.

If an extension can’t be reached and the Jays don’t have confidence in their ability to build a winning club for 2025, it’s easy to make the argument that the club should at least see what Guerrero could bring back on the trade market. If they find an offer that eclipses the package the Padres received for Soto last winter, it’s easy to imagine that greatly accelerating the club’s return to competitiveness in a post-Guerrero era. That would certainly be preferable to missing the playoffs again in 2025 with Guerrero on the roster and losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick in free agency next winter, though trading Guerrero before the season begins would make a playoff run this year all the more difficult to imagine.

The club could also give itself more time to make a decision by supplementing the roster further throughout the winter in an effort to compete this year and then re-evaluating at the trade deadline. With that said, Guerrero would surely be far less attractive as a trade candidate with just two months of team control remaining. His impact for an acquiring club in 2025 would be reduced if they only had him for the stretch run, and perhaps more importantly it’s all but impossible to imagine him entertaining an extension with a new club that close to free agency. The star slugger is sure to garner a significantly larger return if traded before the season begins, but that would all but close the door on playoff baseball in Toronto this year.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation will play out? Will Guerrero and the Blue Jays come to an agreement on an extension before his deadline next month? And if not, will the Jays trade their star slugger before Opening Day or enter the season with him on the roster? Have your say in the poll below!

Poll: Will Pete Alonso Return To The Mets?

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The first base market started to move rapidly late in 2024, as players like Josh Naylor, Paul Goldschmidt, Nathaniel Lowe, and Carlos Santana came off the trade and free agent markets. That movement did not work its way up to the top of the market at the time, but since the New Year started, buzz surrounding Pete Alonso’s free agency has grown louder. Alonso’s camp reportedly approached the Mets to pitch a three-year deal with opt-outs last week. The two parties have since discussed that structure but still face a gap in numbers. Notably, the Mets are said to be pressing for a definitive conclusion sooner than later.

That Alonso’s market has seemingly dropped into the short-term, high annual salary range is notable but not necessarily a shock, given how frequently that approach has been taken by stars who linger on the market in recent years. Shortstop Carlos Correa’s first deal with the Twins is perhaps the most notable example, but it’s become more widespread in the years since that deal with Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman signing deals of that nature last offseason alone. This winter, free agents like Jack Flaherty and Anthony Santander have reportedly joined Alonso in beginning to consider short-term offers.

For a Mets club that has tended to avoid making long-term commitments to players already in their 30s (particularly since hiring David Stearns as president of baseball operations), the idea of getting Alonso back in the fold on a short-term deal has to be appealing. It would hardly be a surprise if Alonso was hoping to land a deal that guarantees him $30MM or more annually, or at least is front-loaded in such a way that he could opt out of the deal next winter and walk away with $30MM or more — similar to Bellinger’s three-year deal with the Cubs. The Mets are surely hoping to minimize risk on their end to avoid a situation where Alonso opts in and becomes an anchor on the roster.

While the Mets have long been considered the favorite and most logical landing spot, they aren’t the only club with interest in Alonso. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and Giants have all been connected to Alonso since the new year began. Most of that quartet already has a set first baseman, but none sported a top-ten offense in MLB last year and each of the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays were below-average in terms of home run power. That makes it easy to envision a slugger of Alonso’s caliber making a difference for any of those clubs, even in the event that he doesn’t return to the more well-rounded form he flashed in 2022 as a four-WAR player with a .352 on-base percentage.

The Mets, meanwhile, could theoretically consider a number of alternatives. In particular, Santander has been connected to the Mets as a potential backup. A few budget options seem to be under consideration as well, including a reunion with Jesse Winker. Should the Mets pivot towards adding in the outfield, they could end up using a mix of internal options at the infield corners. Mark Vientos can move to first base, while Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuna could vie for time at the hot corner. Alex Bregman is still out there in free agency, and Nolan Arenado is on the trade market. But if the Mets can’t find three-year terms with Alonso that are to their liking, it’d be a surprise if they signed another 30-year-old infielder who’s seeking a long-term deal (Bregman) or traded for a 34-year-old infielder who’s still owed $74MM (Arenado).

Given the imperfect fit for Alonso with many of his other suitors and the Mets’ lack of obvious proven alternatives, the most straightforward way for both sides to get what they want is to close the gap in negotiations and work out a deal. That’s easier said than done, of course, and until a deal is in place, another club like the Giants or Blue Jays could swoop in with a compelling short-term offer of its own. If Alonso remains unsigned into spring training, an injury to a contending club’s first baseman could open further possibilities.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between the two sides going forward?

Free Agent Faceoff: Jose Quintana vs Andrew Heaney

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The starting pitching options available in free agency have begun to dwindle with the start of Spring Training less than a month away, but a few interesting options still remain available. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are the top names still available in free agency at this point, though they figure to come with a high annual salary in the case of Flaherty and cost their new club draft capital as a qualified free agent in the case of Pivetta. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer stands alone at the top of the market for veterans likely to accept one year deals after Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander all found homes earlier this winter.

Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?

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The 2025 international amateur signing period begins tomorrow. While that milestone is a bit of a footnote for many fans in the offseason calendar, this year is different thanks to the presence of 23-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. Sasaki was posted for major league clubs by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines just after the Winter Meetings last month. As an NPB player coming to the majors before the age of 25, he’s considered an amateur despite his dominance over the course of four seasons in Japan.

The fact that Sasaki is coming to the majors through the system in place for international amateurs created a wide-open race for his services on paper. International amateurs can only sign minor league deals that are accompanied by signing bonuses from each team’s hard-capped international bonus pools. As such, clubs without substantial payrolls couldn’t be outbid by their large-market counterparts. More than 20 teams reportedly checked in with Sasaki when he was posted last month. He met with a number of teams in Los Angeles (where his agents at Wasserman are headquartered) before the holidays, including the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs. Now, with just over a week left in Sasaki’s posting window, a trio of finalists has emerged: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays.

That the Dodgers are a finalist for Sasaki’s services should surprise no one. After all, Sasaki is a player who wanted to compete at the highest level badly enough to come over to the major leagues early and in doing so chose to forfeit the opportunity to land a nine-figure deal. Given that competitiveness, joining the reigning World Series champions who haven’t missed the postseason since 2011 figures to hold obvious appeal. Aside from that, the Dodgers are perhaps the largest international brand in the sport, employing former NPB and KBO stars like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, now, Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim. That global brand (and the potential for international endorsements that comes with it) could hold plenty of appeal for Sasaki given the fact that he’ll be signing a minor league contract.

All of that has made the Dodgers such an obvious fit for Sasaki’s services to many around the game that his agent, Joel Wolfe, felt compelled earlier this winter to deny rumors of a “handshake” deal with the Dodgers before Sasaki’s posting period had even begun. Despite this air of inevitability surrounding the Dodgers and Sasaki in the eyes of some fans and media members, however, there are two other finalists that each can offer a legitimate case for Sasaki’s services in their own right.

The Padres have received nearly as much attention as a likely co-favorite. Multiple reports have suggested that Sasaki has a strong relationship with veteran right-hander Yu Darvish, who has four seasons left on his deal in San Diego and would as such be available to serve as a mentor to Sasaki and guide him through his transition to the big leagues. San Diego, much like Los Angeles, also could benefit from being on the west coast with the associated mild climate and travel-related benefits that often appeal to NPB players. The Padres can also offer more money to Sasaki than the Dodgers; their bonus pool is $6,261,600 this year as compared to L.A.’s pool of just $5,146,200, though either club could trade for more bonus pool money in order to put together a more tempting offer for Sasaki.

Compared to the Dodgers and Padres, the Blue Jays appear to be a dark horse candidate. A connection between Sasaki and the club was first made just yesterday, when reporting surfaced that Sasaki had met with the club in Toronto. The Blue Jays have long sought to court top talents in free agency, including a pursuit of Ohtani last winter where they were generally acknowledged to have finished as the runner-up for the MVP’s services. Though the Blue Jays aren’t as well set-up for success as the Dodgers and Padres, having finished fifth in a crowded AL East just last year, Toronto could offer Sasaki the opportunity to be the face of the franchise in a way that more star-studded teams in L.A. and San Diego cannot — particularly if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ultimately signs elsewhere in free agency next winter. What’s more, the Blue Jays have the same $6,261,600 bonus pool the Padres have and therefore could outbid the Dodgers financially.

With just over a week left until the January 23 deadline by which Sasaki has to make a decision, where do MLBTR readers believe he’ll land? Will he hitch his wagon to the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles? Will he join his longtime friend and mentor Darvish in San Diego? Or will he surprise the baseball world and opt to make a name for himself in Toronto? Have your say in the poll below:

Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson

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The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.

Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.

The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.

Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.

While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.

If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Where Will Tanner Scott Sign?

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After staying cold for the majority of the offseason, the free agent market has finally begun to heat up for relievers this week with veteran right-handers Chris Martin and Andrew Kittredge both agreeing to one-year deals. They join previous deals for Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi Garcia among the major signings of the winter among late-inning relief arms, but a number of the top arms on the market remain available at this point. Chief among those options is left-hander Tanner Scott, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 with the Marlins and built on that last year to deliver a dominant platform campaign in Miami and San Diego.

Scott’s fantastic work over the past two seasons, when he’s pitched to a combined 2.04 ERA (224 ERA+) with a 2.53 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work, has catapulted him to the pinnacle of the market for relief arms in his first trip through free agency this winter. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Scott would land a four-year, $56MM deal. Even that hefty price tag may have been light, as reporting has indicated that Scott could receive a multi-year deal in the realm of $20MM annually.

That would seemingly put him in line with the other top closers on the market in recent years, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz, at least in terms of average annual value. The largest guarantee for a reliever in MLB history went to Diaz, who signed a five-year, $102MM deal ($20.4MM AAV). That contract contained considerable deferrals, however, and by measure of net present value was valued closer to $93MM. Hader signed a five-year deal worth $95MM without deferred money ($19MM AAV). It would be a surprise if Scott managed to surpass the guarantees Hader and Diaz landed, but the AAV is more feasible (especially on a three-year deal).

Scott is a few months older than Hader was at the time of his deal and more than a year older than Diaz was. He also simply lacks the track record of the other two. Hader and Diaz were multi-time All-Stars with top-10 Cy Young finishes who’d spent virtually their entire careers as late-inning arms. Scott was a middle reliever for the first several seasons of his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+) and a 3.91 FIP entering his breakout 2023 campaign.

Rumblings on Scott haven’t been particularly prolific this winter, but a few teams have been connected to the southpaw. The Yankees were reportedly in the mix earlier this winter, though their addition of closer Devin Williams, current need for an infielder, and reportedly limited budget space going forward could take them out of the running. On the other hand, if they can trade Marcus Stroman, that might make them more amenable to another splash in the ’pen. The Dodgers have been the team most frequently connected to Scott, while the Mets reportedly held a meeting with him recently. The Braves and Red Sox have been at least loosely connected to Scott as well.

The Dodgers make plenty of sense after a season where they struggled to find consistency in the ninth inning. Their late-inning mix is currently headlined by a combination of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Treinen. That trio all throw from the right side, making Scott a nice addition as a dominant southpaw to pair with fellow lefty Alex Vesia.

The Mets surely find the idea of pairing Scott with Diaz tantalizing. It’d be understandable if Diaz’s lost 2023 season and struggles in the first half of 2024 led the club to be a bit cautious when it comes to lengthy deals for relievers, but those factors may also reinforce the value of adding another shutdown arm who can help keep the bullpen afloat if Diaz is injured or struggling.

The Red Sox entered the winter in need of high-leverage relief help after losing Martin and Kenley Jansen to free agency, and expressed a clear preference for adding a lefty to the mix. That made Scott a seemingly ideal fit for the club, but they struck quickly in free agency by adding Chapman. They remain involved in the relief market, but it’s unclear whether they’re still pursuing Scott specifically.

Perhaps the most interesting sleeper is Atlanta. It’s been an extremely quiet winter for the Braves. By this time last year, they’d already swung trades for Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic, and Chris Sale, extended both Sale and Pierce Johnson, and signed Joe Jimenez and Reynaldo Lopez in free agency. This winter has been quiet outside of trading Jorge Soler in a salary dump deal and restructuring the contracts of Lopez and Bummer. Atlanta’s most significant addition is a split contract for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. The Braves generally aren’t shy about paying heavy per-year salaries in the bullpen, and with Raisel Iglesias ticketed for free agency next winter and Jimenez likely out for the season, perhaps the club could look to Scott to fortify the bullpen in the short-term before taking over as the closer in future seasons.

There are, of course, other speculative fits to consider — even if they’ve yet to be specifically linked to Scott. The D-backs still want a closer and already made one surprising free-agent grab when they inked Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays keep finishing runner-up on all their pursuits; could they eventually pivot to a big bullpen splash? The Giants have been tied to Pete Alonso recently and were in on Burnes before he signed in Arizona; they clearly still have some money to spend, even after signing Justin Verlander.

So, where will Scott end up? And will he approach or even exceed the deals landed by Hader and Diaz in free agency, or hew more closely to MLBTR’s $56MM prediction at the outset of free agency? Have your say in the polls below:

Poll: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?

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Just over a year removed from a disappointing offseason that saw the club emerge as a finalist for Shohei Ohtani but ultimately come up just short, the Blue Jays are once again in the midst of a difficult offseason where star players have repeatedly signed elsewhere despite aggressive pursuits from Toronto’s front office. The club was one of five teams seriously involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes but seemingly finished behind both New York teams and the Red Sox in their quest to land him. Since then, they’ve fallen short in pursuits of Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Teoscar Hernandez in free agency as well as Cody Bellinger on the trade market.

They’ve remained connected to virtually every major free agent available this winter, and have been linked to everyone from first baseman Pete Alonso to right-handers Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Outfielder Anthony Santander is the player they’ve been most strongly connected to of all; they’ve reportedly made him a contract offer and are viewed (alongside the Angels) as potential front-runners for his services. Of course, the same was said about Toronto during the sweepstakes for Burnes before the right-hander landed in Arizona. With team president Mark Shapiro entering the final year of his contract and GM Ross Atkins under contract for just one year beyond that, the front office is surely facing plenty of pressure to make the club’s final year of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette count—particularly if the club isn’t able to work out an extension with the former.

The Jays are a team that stands to significantly benefit from an infusion of impact talent in virtually all areas of the roster. Their 101 wRC+ (13th in baseball) last year was middle of the pack, as was their 3.95 rotation ERA (14th). While the club’s disastrous 2024 bullpen (29th in baseball by ERA) seems to be an obvious place to upgrade, the presence of high-quality veterans like Kirby Yates, David Robertson, and Kenley Jansen on the market create plenty of options for the Jays if they goal is to add to their relief corps without committing to a large contract.

One complicating factor is that while the Jays have been connected to a number of upper-level players on the market, it remains unclear whether they have wherewithal to land multiple impact players. Reporting shortly after the Winter Meetings suggested that Toronto may have room for only one major addition in their budget, whether that player ends up being an arm or a bat. If the club truly is only willing or able to add one high-priced player this winter, there are valid arguments for either a rotation piece or a lineup addition.

The argument for adding to the club’s rotation is a fairly simply one: the starting five lost a valuable piece over the summer in Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s yet to he replaced . Right-handers Yariel Rodriguez and Jake Bloss are solid depth options but leave something to be desired as the club’s on-paper fifth starter options. While a weak back-end of the rotation is something a club could stomach with a strong front half, staff ace Kevin Gausman is coming off a pedestrian 2024 season and just celebrated his 34th birthday. Adding a starter like Flaherty to the mix would help to lighten Gausman’s load as he looks to rebound, take pressure off Bowden Francis to repeat a breakout 2024 season that saw him pitch to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts down the stretch, and allow the club to push Rodriguez into more of a depth role.

While the club’s rotation is short on depth, that’s one area where the Toronto offense excels. Interesting young players like Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, and Davis Schneider are currently projected for roles on the bench or at Triple-A on Opening Day, and that’s with Daulton Varsho expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season. Varsho’s eventual return from the injured list should add even more depth, and with so many young hitters it’s not hard to imagine one of them taking a step forward in 2025.

While that group of young hitters (excluding Varsho) generally can’t be expected to produce on the level of a player like Santander or Alex Bregman, there is one player who could: Bichette. The star infielder struggled through a career-worst season in 2024 due to in part to injuries but had been among the steadiest All-Star level bats in baseball for several years prior to last season’s downturn.

It’s clear that the club’s offense needs at least some level of reinforcement. Of the 19 hitters to appear in at least 25 games for the Jays last season, only Guerrero was above average by measure of wRC+ and still remains with the team. While the club’s bevy of young hitters could improve and it’s easy to imagine Bichette or even Alejandro Kirk bouncing back to the more robust offensive performances they’ve offered in the past, Guerrero is the only true source of stability in the lineup.

That creates a strong argument for adding someone who can protect Guerrero, but it’s also fair to note that even a lesser addition who can provide above-average offense (e.g. Jesse Winker) could still help the lineup and leave the door open for a bigger addition to the rotation.

If you were in charge of the Blue Jays and only had room in the budget for one major addition, how would you handle the situation? Would you bolster the lineup and hope that a rebound from Gausman and a full season from Bowden in the rotation is enough to keep make up for the loss of Kikuchi and a lack of depth? Or would you add a starting pitcher and hope for a rebound from Bichette and steps forward from the club’s young hitters? Have your say in the poll below:

Triston Casas And Boston’s Infield Dilemma

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The rumor mill has been a whirlwind for Red Sox fans this offseason, with the club diving headfirst into the Juan Soto sweepstakes only to come up short, then getting involved in the markets for Max Fried and Corbin Burnes before ultimately pivoting to Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Now, Boston appears to be in the thick of the market for impact hitters. The club has not made its desire to land a bat who can help balance their heavily left-handed lineup out a secret this winter, and they’ve been connected to a number of major bats like Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, and Nolan Arenado.

There’s been plenty of focus on the possibility of the club adding a right-handed infielder like Bregman or Arenado in particular. Either of those deals could come with complications, however. Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are both top prospects for the Red Sox who figure to debut in 2025 and fit best on the infield. As the club is currently constructed, with Triston Casas and Rafael Devers at the corners and Trevor Story at shortstop, second base appears to be the cleanest way for either of those players to get into the lineup- or for the club to add a free agent infielder. Bregman has indicated a willingness to play the keystone, but it would be a risky decision for the Red Sox to play a solid defensive third baseman out of position in deference to the incumbent Devers and his lackluster defense. And the idea of adding a glove-first third baseman like Arenado and moving him off the hot corner seems even more farfetched.

That’s led to plenty of speculation swirling around the future of Casas this winter, as the young first baseman would be by far the easiest piece of the club’s infield mix to move. Casas, who turns 25 next week, has done nothing but hit in the majors to this point with a .250/.337/.473 slash line in 222 big league games so far. That’s been good for a 125 wRC+, and with four years of team control remaining the slugger could be a building block for a number of teams around the game—including the Red Sox. While a player with Casas’s combination of talent and team control should garner plenty of attention if made available on the market, it’s worth noting that the youngster’s 2024 season may have raised some red flags that could make potential suitors concerned about his value.

For one thing, he missed most of the season due to torn cartilage in his ribcage. In the 63 games where Casas was healthy enough to take the field, he hit just .241/.337/.462 (119 wRC+) and posted the lowest walk rate (12.3%) of his young career. Both of those are still well above-average figures and not necessarily cause for concern by themselves, but Casas’s sharp uptick in strikeouts is more alarming. He struck out at a 31.7% clip in his 243 plate appearances last year. If he had stayed healthy enough to qualify, that would’ve been the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year behind only Zack Gelof. Third on that list is Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz, proving it’s at least theoretically possible to be an impactful major leaguer even if you punch out nearly a third of the time, but that’s a much steeper ask for a player as defensively limited as Casas.

Of course, those potential red flags haven’t stopped Casas from getting plenty of attention in the rumor mill. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has insisted that the club isn’t shopping the young slugger, but several reports have indicated that the club is at least listening to offers on him even if they aren’t placing him on the trading block outright. In particular, there was plenty of smoke surrounding the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Mariners regarding Casas last month. Those talks reportedly saw Seattle rebuff the idea of either trading one of their young starting pitchers for Casas or else trading Luis Castillo for a package involving both Casas and pricey DH Masataka Yoshida, while the Red Sox balked at the idea of trading Casas for Castillo without also offloading Yoshida’s salary.

With Crochet and Buehler now in the fold, the Red Sox have an abundance of starting pitching options that could make a deal for a player like Castillo less palatable. That being said, reports have indicated that the club could still be open to dealing Casas in order to facilitate other roster moves. One such roster move a trade of Casas could facilitate would be the addition of Bregman or Arenado at third base, while Casas departs the roster in order to allow a potential move to first base for Devers. Alternatively, parting ways with Casas could open the door for the club to instead add a right-handed slugger like Pete Alonso to the lineup at first base if the club opts to keep Devers at the hot corner.

It’s an interesting conundrum the Red Sox face: they’ve missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and finally appear poised to seriously contend for the AL East again in 2025. There’s at least theoretically room for an impact player on the infield as things stand, but a complicated positional fit and the presence of impact prospects at Triple-A nearing their big league debut would complicate any such acquisitions.

Should the club stand pat on the infield, preserving the potential star power of Casas and leaving the door open for Mayer and/or Campbell to step in at second base this year? Should the club deal Casas in order to guarantee that there’s room for both a top prospect and an impact addition on the infield, despite the questions regarding Casas’s current value? Or should the Red Sox push their chips in and sign an impact player while keeping Casas in the fold, regardless of the awkward positional fit and the risk of blocking impact prospects? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Will Jack Flaherty End Up?

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If there’s been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from Juan Soto’s record-shattering contract), it’s that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander Michael Wacha kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since then. After right-hander Corbin Burnes reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January.

Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winter’s robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal.

On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burnes’s deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-less in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by Max Fried earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the righty’s reported asking price of $245MM.

If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitcher’s market can collapse once they don’t have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been connected to the right-hander in recent days.

The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes there’s been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been attached to first baseman Pete Alonso, it’s possible that the club’s interest in a pitcher of Flaherty’s caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. There’s a possibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have extended an offer to outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.

It’s possible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres on one-year deals. That hasn’t stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson helping to anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander.

Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isn’t in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023’s staff ace Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, they’ve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they continue their search for upgrades even after last week’s deal for Morton.

As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flaherty’s services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly; while there’s potentially room at third base for another bat, they haven’t been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. There’s been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another rotation addition as “inevitable” for the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point.

There’s some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while he’s available. The right-hander’s decision is due by January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that misses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor.

In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mystery team” swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTR’s prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below.

Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

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December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?

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