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MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes?

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The Brewers have a ticking clock on their hands with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been excellent for them over the past four seasons but he’s now just one year away from free agency. They could have tried to sign him to an extension at some point but had not done so as of September of last year, per Burnes himself.

The pitcher recently expanded on the process in some comments with Fair Territory on November 17, as relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “That was never something that we got to,” Burnes said when asked about extension talks. “Obviously, coming off the shortened season in 2020, having my first good year after signing [for] ‘21, I think for them it was, ‘Hey, wait and see if this was a one-off year,’ or if they thought this was something we could explore long-term.”

Burnes then goes on to explain that his continued success inflated his earning power so much that he was out of their price range and they didn’t want to bother insulting him with a lowball offer. This brought the two sides to the impasse where they currently find themselves. “I think a couple of years ago, I was open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know that we’re a year away from free agency, and we want to see what the market can bring.”

As McCalvy lays out, that leaves the club with two distinct options. One is to hold onto Burnes and see what happens in 2024, which would still leave open the possibility of a midseason trade or receiving a compensation pick after extending a qualifying offer to Burnes. The other path is to trade him now.

The holding path certainly has its appeal. The club is the defending champion in the National League Central, after all. They will have to proceed without Brandon Woodruff, who was recently non-tendered in the wake of shoulder surgery. But he missed most of 2023 as well and the club still managed to thrive. Some other players also departed via free agency but the club could feasibly have a stronger outfield next year. Each of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Tyrone Taylor were held back by injuries and could perhaps contribute more next year, joining Christian Yelich and Joey Wiemer in a strong outfield mix.

Then there’s Jackson Chourio, one of the top prospects in the sport, who reached Triple-A in 2023 and could debut in 2024. The club and Chourio are reportedly discussing an extension, which could perhaps increase his chances of being a factor in 2024. That could then lead to an outfield surplus, which could allow the club to perhaps bolster their team while holding Burnes.

The club could stand to find some upgrades on the infield and in the back of the rotation, but they could have some money to do so. Roster Resource estimates next year’s payroll at $101MM right now. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, while they were at $132MM in 2022.

But the downside of the holding option is quite apparent with the example of Woodruff. The unfortunate reality with pitchers is that injury can quickly sap them of their value, both in terms of on-field contributions and trade value. If anything unfortunate were to develop with Burnes in 2024, the club could regret not cashing in when they had the chance.

By all accounts, the demand for starting pitching is high this winter and not every club is going to be jazzed about the idea of committing hundreds of millions of dollars over many years in order to upgrade their staff. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, far cheaper than what top free agent arms will get, while also having the ability to recoup a compensatory draft pick at year’s end. Some club with a position player surplus but pitching needs may be willing to give up MLB-ready pieces to get Burnes, allowing Milwaukee to perhaps upgrade on the infield.

But the trade path isn’t easy either. The club is already going to be without Woodruff, so flipping Burnes would further weaken a rotation that has been such a strength for the club. With Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer all free agents, a Milwaukee rotation without Burnes would consist of Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with options like Aaron Ashby, Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk and Robert Gasser also around. They could perhaps then use some of their funds to patch that over, but it’s obviously a better group with Burnes in it.

Looking at the broad picture, the division seems to be in a state of flux. The Cardinals are aggressively trying to put their miserable 2023 behind them, while the Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all coming out of their respective rebuilds at different speeds. With both Burnes and Willy Adames set for free agency a year from now, perhaps the Brewers should keep the gang together for one last heist, but doing so might hurt their chances of continuing to compete in 2025 and beyond.

What do you think? Should Burnes stay or go? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel?

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On the heels of a 83-79 season that saw the Cubs finish just outside of the NL playoff picture, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office appear poised to be aggressive this offseason in their pursuit of returning the club to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game campaign since 2018. Chicago already shocked the baseball world this offseason by hiring Craig Counsell to manage the club on a record-setting contract and has been connected to high-profile free agents such as NPB arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Yuki Matsui as well as center fielder Cody Bellinger and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, to say nothing of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

In addition to the rumors swirling around the Cubs and many of the league’s top free agents, the Cubs have been connected to many of the league’s top trade candidates including Padres outfielder Juan Soto, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, and even Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes. At the center of many of those hypothetical trade discussions has been young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has appeared in early offseason trade rumors so frequently that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ranked him #22 in his list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.

Morel made his MLB debut back in May of 2022, just before his 23rd birthday. The youngster initially broke onto the club’s roster due to an injury to Jason Heyward, which provided Morel with the opportunity to get semi-regular reps in center field with the big league club despite having never played above the Double-A level to that point. Morel made the most of his opportunity, sticking on the club’s roster throughout the rest of the 2022 season and slashing .235/.308/.433 (108 wRC+) in 113 games while splitting time between center field, second base, third base, and shortstop.

That above-average offensive production and impressive versatility in Morel’s rookie season gave him the look of a potential big league regular, though there were certainly flaws in his profile. Morel was a well below average defender in center and seemed to be a fringy defender at both third base and shortstop as well, despite a solid showing at second base. On top of the defensive question marks, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s above-average slash line was carried by a hot first half; the youngster slashed just .194/269/.376 in 184 trips to the plate during the second half in 2022. Between that late-season slump and his 32.2% strikeout rate, which was sixth-highest in the majors among players with at least 400 plate appearances that year, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s production would be sustainable entering his sophomore season.

The questions about Morel’s glove were only exacerbated by the signing of Dansby Swanson, who slotted in at shortstop and kicked Nico Hoerner over to second base in doing so. With Hoerner now an obvious everyday solution at second base, Morel entered the 2023 season without a clear role on the big league club and started the season at Triple-A. He tore the cover off the ball with a comical .330/.425/.730 slash line in 29 games with the club’s Iowa affiliate before the Cubs had seen enough to bring him up to the big leagues. Though he logged occasional time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop, Morel spent much of the season as Chicago’s primary DH.

Morel took to his new role quite well, slashing .247/.313/.508 (119 wRC+) with 26 home runs across just 429 trips to the plate. Only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Yordan Alvarez, and Nolan Gorman hit more home runs in under 500 trips to the plate this year. What’s more, Morel’s .260 ISO ranked sixteenth among players with at least 400 big league plate appearances in 2023, ranking just behind Jorge Soler and just ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Though Morel’s strikeout rate of 31% is still high enough to raise plenty of eyebrows, the youngster managed to establish himself as a quality big-league power bat as the Cubs’ regular DH.

As previously mentioned, Morel has found himself at the center of trade rumors this offseason with the Cubs potentially in line to be aggressive this winter. Reports have suggested Morel as a potential piece of the return for both Soto and Alonso should the Cubs look to deal for either player, though other reports have indicated the Cubs might be hesitant to include Morel in a deal for a rental piece.

The decision on whether or not to shop Morel this offseason is an interesting one for the Cubs. The youngster is not yet eligible for arbitration and figures to remain under team control for five more seasons before being first eligible for free agency after the 2028 season. His power-oriented bat could prove crucial for the Cubs in 2024, particularly after the 2023 team landed middle-of-the-pack in terms of both ISO and home runs this past season, and it’s always possible that a player as young as Morel manages to find another gear and break out. That sort of upside could make it hard for the Cubs to part with Morel, especially given the amount of team control he has remaining.

That being said, with Nico Hoerner locked in at second base for the next three seasons while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are set to patrol the outfield corners for that same term, Morel seems unlikely to find a long-term position in Chicago— at least, unless he takes to a new position this winter. What’s more, Morel’s propensity for striking out combined with just average walk rates for his career give him an uncertain floor as a player; if his power production dips, it’s possible the Cubs could be looking at a roughly league average offensive contributor taking up their DH slot on most days. That risk could make it sensible for Chicago to attempt to sell high on Morel this offseason.

What do MLBTR readers think about Chicago’s dilemma? Should the Cubs look to move Morel now, given his value may never be higher? Or should they hold onto him in hopes of a breakout that could make him an impact player in spite of his limited defensive value? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff Decision

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Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff is among the most talented pitchers in the league today. In 103 starts since joining the club’s rotation full-time during the 2019 season, Woodruff has posted a 2.93 ERA (45% better than league average by measure of ERA+) with a 3.10 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate across 595 innings of work. Among pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that timeframe, only Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander have posted a lower ERA than Woodruff. Meanwhile, only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, and fellow Brewers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have posted a higher strikeout rate over that same timeframe.

Despite that immense talent, Woodruff struggled with injuries in 2023, making just 11 starts all season due to shoulder issues. While he managed an impressive 2.28 ERA and 29.2% strikeout rate during his limited time on the mound, the Brewers received devastating news last month when it was revealed that ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery that could put his entire 2024 season in jeopardy. News that a pitcher of Woodruff’s caliber has gone under the knife is never welcome, but it’s particularly poor timing for both the right-hander and his club given Woodruff’s pending free agency following the 2024 season.

With Woodruff projected for a $11.6MM salary in his final trip through arbitration by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, the small-market Brewers have been unexpectedly forced to reckon with the question of whether or not it’s worth devoting what would have been nearly 10% of their total 2023 payroll (per RosterResource) to one-year deal for an injured arm with an uncertain timetable for return. While initial indications were that the righty would miss most or perhaps even all of the 2024 campaign, Woodruff himself has said that it’s possible he could return to the mound “at some point” next summer. Still, even the possibility of a half-season of excellence from Woodruff doesn’t change the fact that a $11.6MM gamble on Woodruff’s health could be unwise for Brewers to make this offseason.

With star manager Craig Counsell having already jumped ship to join the Cubs, the Brewers have started off their offseason by dealing veteran first baseman and outfielder Mark Canha to the Tigers as reports have indicated that the club is willing to deal the majority of the players on their roster. What’s more, co-ace Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames both set to hit the open market in 2024 in addition to Woodruff, leaving the Brewers in a tight spot regarding their roster if they hope to continue avoiding a full-blown rebuild as they have for the past several years. That being said, even if the Brewers wind up moving Burnes and Adames this offseason, it’s unlikely they’d find much value for Woodruff on the trade market.

It’s always possible that Woodruff and the Brewers could work out a short-term extension, extending Woodruff’s club control into 2025 while providing him additional security as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. That being said, Woodruff will be 31 years old on Opening Day 2024. Delaying his free agency until he’s preparing for his age-33 season would surely compromise the right-hander’s value on the open market, making it a less than attractive option for the righty. While Woodruff has expressed a desire to remain in Milwaukee long term, he noted last month that he and the Brewers had not yet engaged in extension negotiations at that point.

With MLB’s tender deadline less than a week away, the Brewers are staring down the most significant decision of their offseason to this point: do they tender Woodruff a contract? If they do so without a pre-tender extension, they could find themselves on the hook for a salary upwards of $12MM in 2024 for a pitcher who might not be able to contribute. And while they could extend Woodruff a qualifying offer next offseason to ensure they recoup draft pick compensation for his services, there’s no guarantee that his performance in 2024 coming off injury will justify such an expenditure. At the same time, Woodruff has strong incentive to not agree to a pre-tender deal. If the Brewers ultimately decide to non-tender the 30-year-old, he’ll have the opportunity to negotiate a deal with any of MLB’s 30 clubs on the open market, giving him plenty of options as he looks for a new home with whom to rehab and hopefully pitch in 2024 and perhaps beyond.

How do MLBTR readers believe the Brewers will approach their predicament? Will they non-tender Woodruff this coming Friday if he does not agree to a pre-tender deal, allowing him to hit the open market for nothing? Or will they tender him a contract and hope to agree to a more favorable arrangement than his $11.6MM projected salary later in the offseason? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Cardinals’ Outfield Logjam

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The Cardinals have made clear their intention to pursue plenty of pitching help as they attempt to return to contention in 2024. While the deep class of pitchers set to be available provides the club with ample opportunities to dip into free agency, it’s no secret that the Cardinals have an excess of outfield talent. Each of Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill play the outfield exclusively for St. Louis, while multi-positional options Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman saw plenty of time in the outfield as well during the 2023 campaign.

That led the Cardinals to field trade offers on their glut of outfield talent at the trade deadline, though none of their position players ultimately ended up moving besides pending free agent shortstop Paul DeJong. Those talks could begin anew this coming offseason, allowing the Cardinals to explore the trade market for potential pitching additions. Walker and Nootbaar were both regarded as essentially untouchable at the deadline, and it seems likely that they’ll be similarly protected from trade talks this offseason. That being said, each of Carlson, O’Neill, Edman, and Donovan found their names in the rumor mill this past season. Let’s take a look at each of them:

Dylan Carlson (0.2 fWAR in 2023)

Carlson, who celebrated his 25th birthday earlier this week, is coming off a major down season in 2023 where he slashed just .219/.318/.333 in 255 plate appearances. Despite those brutal numbers, Carlson reportedly received interest from multiple clubs at the trade deadline, including the Yankees and Orioles. As a young switch-hitter who was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and is under team control through the 2026 campaign, Carlson could once again be a sought-after change of scenery candidate. That being said, his value is likely at an all time low after undergoing ankle surgery in September (though he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training) and posting the worst offensive season of his career in 2023. Given Carlson’s remaining team control, it’s possible the Cardinals would be better off holding onto their former top prospect in hopes he can rebound in 2024 and improve his stock. On the other hand, another difficult season for Carlson in 2024 could squander whatever remaining interest clubs have in prying him away from St. Louis.

Tyler O’Neill (0.8 fWAR in 2023)

Much like Carlson, O’Neill is also coming off something of a down season, having slashed just .231/.312/.403 in 266 trips to the plate in 2023. As uninspiring as those numbers may be, O’Neill is just two seasons removed from a sensational 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 with a 143 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in 138 games. What’s more, O’Neill posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2023, with a 25.2% strikeout rate. If O’Neill can find a way to balance the power he flashed in 2021 with his improved plate discipline in 2023, he could be an impactful offensive player for just about any club. That being said, with just one year of team control remaining before O’Neill hits free agency, he would likely generate the smallest return package of any of the players listed here. With contention in 2024 uncertain, it’s easy to make the argument that the Cardinals would be wise to deal O’Neill while they still can, though it’s also fair to wonder if they’d be selling too low on a player with an exciting offensive ceiling.

Brendan Donovan (2.1 fWAR in 2023)

Donovan, 26, made good on a strong rookie campaign during his sophomore season, slashing .284/.365/.422 while flashing improved power numbers in 371 trips to the plate. Donovan underwent season-ending surgery on the day of the trade deadline this year after being relegated to DH-only duties for much of the season thanks to a flexor tendon injury. Fortunately, Donovan is expected to be ready Spring Training in 2024 and, when healthy, is a premiere utility option who would be of interest to virtually any club. To this point in his career, Donovan has logged time at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Between his versatility, solid bat, and the fact that he’s not yet even eligible for arbitration, Donovan is easily the most attractive trade candidate on this list who would deliver the strongest return, though it would be a major loss for the Cardinals offense if the club parted with a player of Donovan’s caliber.

Tommy Edman (2.3 fWAR in 2023)

Perhaps the most surprising candidate to appear on this list, Edman came into the 2023 campaign having spent the overwhelming majority of his career on the infield dirt as a shortstop and second baseman. That changed this season, however, as Edman split his time between second base, shortstop, and center field, taking his role in center quite well. While Edman slashed just .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) in 137 games with the club this year, his quality defense at three up the middle positions and roughly league average switch-hitting bat would make him an attractive trade candidate for virtually any team. Edman is controlled through the 2025 campaign, giving him more value on the trade market than a rental bat like O’Neill even as he doesn’t come with the same extensive team control as Carlson or Donovan.

———————

With the Cardinals looking to completely revamp their pitching staff in 2023, it would be a shock if the club didn’t at least look into dealing from its surplus of outfield depth while they attempt to return to contention following a 91-loss season. If they do move on from one of the aforementioned players, which should they look to deal? O’Neill or Carlson departing likely wouldn’t set the 2024 club back very much on offense, though they presumably wouldn’t garner a very significant return as the club looks to add big league-ready pitching options. On the other hand, the club would be far more likely to land a bona fide rotation-caliber arm if they dealt Donovan or Edman, but the 2024 team’s positional group would take a far more significant step back in losing either player’s versatility.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Willy Adames?

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The 2023 offseason has long had the look of one that could spell significant change for the Brewers. Between manager Craig Counsell interviewing with other clubs as he prepares to potentially depart from the organization and a the news that right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff will miss the majority of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, the winds of change seem to be blowing through Milwaukee more strongly than ever before.

Woodruff is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to make $11.6MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames join him as high-dollar arbitration players entering their final season of team control. Burnes is projected for a $15.1MM payday, while Adames projects for a $12.4MM salary in 2024. Taken together, the three players project for a whopping $39.1MM. Those three projected salaries and the $26MM owed to Christian Yelich next season combine to make up more than half of the club’s estimated $126MM payroll (courtesy of RosterResource) in 2023.

Beyond those commitments, the club has a $9.5MM decision to make on Mark Canha’s club option and arbitration raises for the likes of Adrian Houser and Devin Williams, not to mention smaller guaranteed contracts for the likes of Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. Beyond that, the club will need to add to a rotation that figures to enter the 2024 campaign with only Burnes, Peralta, and Houser locked in as starters, replace Victor Caratini as a complement to William Contreras behind the plate, and find ways to improve an offense that finished the season with a wRC+ of just 92, the seventh worst figure in the majors.

With a laundry list of needs and limited payroll space, it’s long been speculated that Milwaukee could look to deal Burnes ahead of his impending free agency in 2024, allowing them to recoup value for their ace pitcher while also saving $15MM or more to put towards other additions. As sensible as that plan may have been, Woodruff’s injury complicates things for the Brewers. After all, the idea of trading Burnes hinges in part on the fact that Woodruff and Peralta would be a capable front-of-the-rotation duo that could help the club absorb the loss of Burnes. With Woodruff out for at least the first half of 2024 and perhaps even longer, the club’s Opening Day rotation would have only Peralta and Houser penciled into it if Burnes were traded.

Given the importance of Burnes to the club’s competitive hopes for 2024, it’s become more sensible than ever for the Brewers to consider dealing their shortstop as a way to open up budget space while also bringing in pieces who could help fill out the major league club for 2024 and beyond. Adames would surely garner plenty of interest on the trade market. Though the league has seen plenty of quality shortstops hit free agency in recent winters, that’s changing this winter: the class is highlighted by the likes of Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, and Gio Urshela. Despite the dearth of quality options, plenty of teams could be in the market for infield help such as the Mariners, Marlins, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Adames’s mix of strong defense and average-or-better offense should make him an attractive trade candidate and perhaps the best player available at his position, even after a down campaign that saw Adames slash just .217/.310/.407 with a career-worst wRC+ of 94.

Of course, there’s potential pitfalls in such an approach as well. The club seems likely to stick with Brice Turang up the middle in 2024, with the likes of Andruw Monasterio, Abraham Toro, Jahmai Jones and Owen Miller as possible depth pieces. That group would surely need at least one additional player to replace Adames. The Brewers could look again to the trade market to replace Adames with a younger infielder, or simply move Turang to shortstop while signing a player like Urshela or Merrifield who could potentially provide the club with an offensive boost.

Given those pitfalls, a trade of Adames would likely require a return package that fills holes in other areas for the Brewers. If Milwaukee were able to land rotation help or a potential infield regular in exchange for Adames, a trade would be an excellent way for the club to extend its competitive window beyond the 2024 season without taking too significant a step back in the short-term. That being said, replacing the production of Adames would require savvy moves from a Brewers front office that has struggled to get offense from the rest of its infield in recent years.

What do MLBTR readers think the best path forward is for the Brewers? Should they retain Adames despite the holes in the roster and his impending free agency after 2024? Or should they risk a significant step back on the infield in 2024 in order to shore up the roster in other areas and improve the club’s standing for 2025 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The grand finale of the 2023 season is set to begin this evening, as the NL champion Diamondbacks head to Arlington to take on the AL champion Rangers for the first game of this year’s World Series.

Both teams have faced plenty of adversity en route to creating the third ever World Series matchup featuring two Wild Card teams, and they each did so via rather similar paths. After all, both clubs led their division for much of the first half of the season before losing their grip on the role in the second half and settling for a Wild Card spot. Since then, they both swept through the Wild Card series before delivering an additional sweep against a 100-win team in the Division Series. In the Championship Series, both teams were trailing after Game 5 but managed to come back with wins in both Game 6 and Game 7 to win their first pennant in over a decade.

It’s all the more impressive given that neither Texas nor Arizona were expected to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season: the playoff odds over at Fangraphs gave the Rangers just a 37.7% chance to make the postseason with a 2% chance of a World Series run, while the Diamondbacks were afforded just 15.3% playoff odds and a 0.5% chance to make the World Series, a bottom-ten figure in the majors. What’s more, both clubs lost 100 games just two seasons ago, during the 2021 campaign.

That’s not to say these clubs are the same, of course. Despite their lack of recent postseason history, the Rangers look in many ways like the prototypical October team. They sport a fantastic front three for their starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi (2.42 ERA in four playoff appearances, 3.63 regular season ERA), Jordan Montgomery (2.16 ERA in five playoff appearances, 2.79 regular season ERA with Texas), and veteran ace Max Scherzer, who struggled in two ALCS starts coming back from a teres major strain but posted a 3.20 ERA during his time with the Rangers during the regular season.

If Scherzer has shaken off the rust enough to look like himself during the World Series, that’s a frightening three-headed monster for Arizona to have to overcome in this series. On the positional side, meanwhile, the Rangers feature a frightening lineup including stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, and power-hitting sluggers Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver. As strong as the lineup and rotation in Arlington may be, the club’s bullpen has been its Achilles’ heel this postseason as key relief arms like Jose Leclerc (4.35 postseason ERA) and Will Smith (9.00 postseason ERA) have struggled badly, though Cody Bradford and Aroldis Chapman have gotten stronger results, with a combined 1.50 ERA across 12 innings of work this postseason.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, appear as unlikely a pennant winner as they come. They finished with just an 84-78 record in the regular season and a run differential of -14, making them the first ever team to win the NL pennant with a negative run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential were the 1987 Twins, who went on to win it all in seven games over the Cardinals. With that being said, the Diamondbacks are hardly a pushover. Though the club’s .247/.317/.424 slash line this postseason pales in comparison to that of the Rangers, Arizona’s pitching staff has actually posted stronger numbers this October with a 3.31 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate against Texas’s 3.67 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate.

That strong pitching performance has come in spite of the struggles of team ace Zac Gallen, who posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 210 innings during the regular season but has scuffled to a 5.24 ERA in four postseason starts. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (2.65 ERA in three postseason starts) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA in four postseason starts) have managed to pick the club’s rotation up, however, an especially impressive feat considering Pfaadt’s lackluster regular season ERA of 5.72 across 96 innings. The back of the club’s bullpen has also been nothing short of stellar, with closer Paul Sewald and primary set-up man Kevin Ginkel combining for 17 scoreless innings of work this postseason. Right-hander Ryan Thompson has also impressed, with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work throughout the playoffs.

On offense, franchise face Ketel Marte (164 wRC+ this postseason) has excelled, while rookies Corbin Carroll (130 postseason wRC+) and Gabriel Moreno (129 wRC+) have also impressed in their first tastes of postseason action. Strong as that trio’s performance may be, however, other key bats like Tommy Pham, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all struggled to this point in the postseason. That could give Texas the offensive edge unless some of the club’s colder bats manage to heat up during the series.

With Gallen and Eovaldi scheduled to face off later this evening for Game 1 of the World Series, which team do MLBTR readers think will take home the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Have your say in the poll below.

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MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out

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The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

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Poll: What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?

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With four teams looking for new managers at the moment, the Brewers are hoping they won’t be the fifth, as team owner Mark Attanasio has made clear his preference that Craig Counsell remains in the dugout.  The logic is obvious — Counsell has a 707-625 record in his nine seasons as Milwaukee’s manager, leading the Brewers to playoff appearances in five of the last six seasons.  Widely regarded as one of baseball’s better skippers, Counsell has been a key ingredient in the Brewers’ success, and thus a very intriguing candidate for other teams looking for a new leader.

Counsell’s contract is officially up on October 31, and though Attanasio approached the manager about a new deal earlier this year, Counsell’s preference was to wait until the season was over to delve into contract negotiations.  With another NL Central title on his resume, Counsell is in a pretty nice negotiating position to command a big raise from the Brewers, and continue both his run as manager and his longstanding ties to the organization.  In addition to his stint as manager, Counsell also grew up in Wisconsin, his father worked for the Brewers’ community relations division, and Counsell played six of  his 16 MLB seasons as a player in a Brewers uniform.

As per recent reports from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, “Counsell will stay if he’s paid what he believes is fair,” according to a source linked to the Brewers.  That said, it isn’t yet clear how far along (if at all) the two sides are in negotiations, even with the October 31 deadline getting closer.  It could be that Counsell is waiting until November to officially hit the open market and gauge his worth with some other offers….and one high-spending team in particular looms as a natural candidate for Counsell’s services.

Rumors swirled for years that the Mets were targeting David Stearns as the next president of their baseball operations department, and the pursuit finally ended in September when New York hired Stearns as the new PBO.  With Stearns seen as likely to eventually join the Mets, there was lots of speculation that Counsell might be looking to join his former Brewers boss in Queens, and that speculation only intensified when Stearns fired Buck Showalter in one of his first acts in charge of the front office.

There hasn’t been a ton of public buzz about the Mets’ managerial search, apart from the fact that the team is looking to hire a skipper from outside the organization.  Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski and Rangers associate manager Will Venable have both been linked to the position, though Venable took him out of the running by declining an interview opportunity.  The relative lack of news about the Mets’ search could indicate that they’re waiting to get a chance to speak with Counsell, or it could simply mean that the team is keeping its cards close to the vest.  It is also possible that Stearns might be a little preoccupied with other business given the unexpected resignation of GM Billy Eppler, though the managerial search was expected to take priority over the efforts to find a new general manager (who would act as Stearns’ chief lieutenant).

If not Milwaukee or New York, we can’t rule out the other teams with managerial openings as possible landing spots for Counsell.  Hiring Counsell would give the Guardians an appropriately big name to help fill the void left by Terry Francona, and the Guards have a Brewers-esque approach in trying to perpetually contend despite a limited payroll.  The Giants have a lot more spending capacity and seem to be looking for something of a culture change, so hiring Counsell could certainly provide such a spark to the organization.  The Angels could be going through something of a transition phase if Shohei Ohtani leaves, though there’s obvious appeal in managing Ohtani (if he re-signs) and Mike Trout, and Counsell could welcome the challenge of ending the Halos’ playoff drought.  Beyond these teams, we might also consider other teams who could be more open to a managerial change if Counsell enters the market, with the Padres perhaps still a club to watch in this regard.

With all of this in mind, where do you think Counsell will be managing next season?

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MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options

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Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.

Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.

Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.

While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).

For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.

Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.

So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!

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